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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 12:27:22 GMT -5
Day Six Votes<snip> NAF1138 =8 MadTheSwine, Sir Blah, FCOD, Capybara, BlasterMaster, DiggitCamara, panamajack, Hockey Monkey <snip> Sir Blah =1 Lakai By the way, Lakai... please tell me you were just terribly busy and missed out on all the scum-lynching fun the rest of us had yesterday. 'Cause if you were around, then keeping your vote on me when we had an actual, confirmed, "yes I admit it you got me suckers" pirate on the hook...well...damn, I don't even know if I could call that a scum tell. That'd be so befuddling that it'd practically zip past "scum tell" and wrap all the way back around to "gotta be a townie" again before finally coming to a rest somewhere in the "what the hell were you thinking" zone.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 22, 2007 12:29:33 GMT -5
I have an uneasy feeling that Gadarene was Flint, and if storyteller stepped into that role...gah! I also have this feeling, although I can't figure out why... --FCOD
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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 12:37:04 GMT -5
And NAF1138. You didn't forget him did you? Grumble grumble stupid not printing out my updated character list grumble... Since I was looking at my printed character list (which I hadn't updated since "ArizonaTeach - Captain Smollett, Murdered, Night Five"), yes, actually, I did forget about NAF (and would like to once again maintain that we need the SDMB's "smacky" icon over here...actually, it'd be helpful to have that wherever I go). So, in light of my wonderful lack of basic observation, can we hope that we're down to just Flint *? We had 24 players to start, correct? So if there were four scum in the beginning, that would make it 1 in 6. I suppose those that could work without making it very unbalanced, but I'd be a helluvalot happier with three to start. Well, I supposed we'll find out with the next scum we string up. *Might I just say how much I hate that that's the scum captain's name? I hear "Flint", I think "gruff but lovable dwarf from the Dragonlance books", not "scummy pirate captain"...
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 22, 2007 12:38:12 GMT -5
So I was examining Auto's posts again because I noticed a consistent pattern among those that mentioned other people. People who are confirmed non-pirates will be hilighted in green, and confirmed pirates in red.
(The reason I am treating non-pirate scum as undifferentiated non-pirates is because as a pirate, all he would have known about them is that they weren't pirates.)
2.333 smudges Gadarene, zuma 2.371 votes for FCOD 2.384 votes for Hockey Monkey 3.55 votes for Hockey Monkey 3.244 smudges Hockey Monkey, zuma, Gadarene 4.114 smudges Idle Thoughts, zuma 4.115 votes zuma 4.211 smudges zuma, Idle Thoughts 4.353 gently defends NAF 4.356 and 4.433 calls Lakai out for being a "slacker"
See the pattern? He never smudged a known pirate and has smudged known non-pirates.
For the moment, this is enough for me to remove Hockey Monkey and Gadarene/notyetdead (and maybe even Lakai) from suspicion.
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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 12:40:31 GMT -5
I have an uneasy feeling that Gadarene was Flint, and if storyteller stepped into that role...gah! I also have this feeling, although I can't figure out why... I'm listening...any basis for this, either of you? And don't take that as "...because if you don't, then stop spouting nonsense!"...that's not at all what I mean. "Uneasy feelings" helped win the day in M3, so I'm always game to hear them out. Just wondering if you've got any tangible basis for them.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 22, 2007 12:41:12 GMT -5
I would be interested in hearing more about the perceived flintiness of Gadarene/notyetdead. He does seem rather too helpful, but the same can be said of Blaster Master.
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Post by Lakai on Jun 22, 2007 12:58:21 GMT -5
I see Sir Blah's point.
All I can say in my defense for now is that two known pirates FOSed me. That should count for something right?
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Post by Lakai on Jun 22, 2007 12:59:26 GMT -5
Day Six Votes<snip> NAF1138 =8 MadTheSwine, Sir Blah, FCOD, Capybara, BlasterMaster, DiggitCamara, panamajack, Hockey Monkey <snip> Sir Blah =1 Lakai By the way, Lakai... please tell me you were just terribly busy and missed out on all the scum-lynching fun the rest of us had yesterday. 'Cause if you were around, then keeping your vote on me when we had an actual, confirmed, "yes I admit it you got me suckers" pirate on the hook...well...damn, I don't even know if I could call that a scum tell. That'd be so befuddling that it'd practically zip past "scum tell" and wrap all the way back around to "gotta be a townie" again before finally coming to a rest somewhere in the "what the hell were you thinking" zone. I was just lazy.
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Post by cowgirl on Jun 22, 2007 12:59:44 GMT -5
Lakai keeps getting smudged by known scum. I noted Auto's posts above, and just noticed this one from our cunning friend Hal Briston (5.81):
and this from NAF1138 (6.50)
Now, is this three clever scum creating a diversion? Note that they aren't just jumping on bandwagons. To me it seems to exonerate Lakai (unless the scum are even more cunning than I give them credit for, which is a possibility open to discussion).
Going by Lakai's posts (and scarcity thereof) on their own, I find him scummy. But if he is crew, that appearance of scumminess would make him the perfect target for a daytime pirate campaign against him.
What do you think?
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 22, 2007 13:02:23 GMT -5
Sorry for not getting as involved as I should have during the last few days. I'll probably will bask in my "glory" back at the SDMB for today and get busy analyzing the past Days during the weekend. I hope I can help a bit more from now on.
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Post by diggitcamara on Jun 22, 2007 13:03:45 GMT -5
Lakai keeps getting smudged by known scum. I noted Auto's posts above, and just noticed this one from our cunning friend Hal Briston (5.81): and this from NAF1138 (6.50) Now, is this three clever scum creating a diversion? Note that they aren't just jumping on bandwagons. To me it seems to exonerate Lakai (unless the scum are even more cunning than I give them credit for, which is a possibility open to discussion). Going by Lakai's posts (and scarcity thereof) on their own, I find him scummy. But if he is crew, that appearance of scumminess would make him the perfect target for a daytime pirate campaign against him. What do you think? Concerning Hal/Dick's "smudging: remember he didn't have any more knowledge of scum than the rest of the crew.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 22, 2007 13:07:25 GMT -5
Don't forget that Hal Briston (Dick) would not know Lakai's status any more than a crewperson.
Scum will smudge scum a lot. Scum will also vote for scum when a lynching is not imminent. Known scum have not voted for Lakai when he was in danger of being lynched. If known scum had voted to lynch Lakai, I might find him to be less scummy, but that didn't happen. I think Lakai is scum, and since I have no better ideas at the moment...
Vote Lakai.
--FCOD
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Post by Lakai on Jun 22, 2007 13:16:55 GMT -5
Don't forget that Hal Briston (Dick) would not know Lakai's status any more than a crewperson. Scum will smudge scum a lot. Scum will also vote for scum when a lynching is not imminent. Known scum have not voted for Lakai when he was in danger of being lynched. If known scum had voted to lynch Lakai, I might find him to be less scummy, but that didn't happen. I think Lakai is scum, and since I have no better ideas at the moment... Vote Lakai.--FCOD What about NAF's vote yesterDay? I was definitely in danger of being lynched then. Now I know someone is going to say that scum voted for me while I was in danger of being lynched because the lynch seemed inevitable and they wanted to look better. In that case Auto smudged me when I wasn't in any real danger. So you have a smudge when I wasn't in danger and a vote when I was.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Jun 22, 2007 13:20:25 GMT -5
The Dread third vote....does this mean I am scum?vote Lakai
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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 13:25:58 GMT -5
Wanna hear something ironic? I just went back through all of Lakai posts, and found...well, I dunno...I don't want to say that I suddenly think he's crew, but my confidence in his scumminess is wavering. I think the problem is I feel we might be down to just Flint remaining, and while I think Lakai could be scum, I don't think he's Flint.
Anyway, the irony -- if I were to unvote Lakai now, then by his own logic, it'd look scummy.
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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 13:26:48 GMT -5
The Dread third vote....does this mean I am scum? vote LakaiNo, of course not. Only scum would think that.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 22, 2007 13:59:53 GMT -5
Ok, I've been reading through the posts of the remaining unconfirmed players. I'm not finding any of them particularly scummy. Which isn't unexpected, presuming that our Pirates are a better class of scum.
I'm just not grokking the votes for Lakai. The case against him doesn't seem strong.
So, for the moment, I'm just going to relay on simple intuition, since I can get away with it.
++Vote Blaster Master++
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 22, 2007 14:07:53 GMT -5
What about NAF's vote yesterDay? I was definitely in danger of being lynched then. Now I know someone is going to say that scum voted for me while I was in danger of being lynched because the lynch seemed inevitable and they wanted to look better. In that case Auto smudged me when I wasn't in any real danger. NAF's vote was only the second one for you that day and there was still plenty of time left. IMO, you weren't really in imminent danger. --FCOD
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Post by capybara on Jun 22, 2007 14:20:33 GMT -5
Ok, there's a lot of time left in the day and some of us are voting for Lakai for lack of better options and feeling dodgy about that. Then. . . shouldn't we talk about options? Pleo-- is it just intuition or do you have any thoughts that might enlighten others? What are the thoughts behind the Gad/Undead suspicion? Because he's been so not suspicious?
I agree with Sir Blah's notion than if it's only Flint left, that's not Lakai-- wouldn't he at least put up a fight, just by virtue of having a fancy role to live up to? I'm getting more of a "ya'll suck, and you'll be sorry when I'm dead" grumpy vibe from Lakai right now.
Let's take some time to look at others.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 22, 2007 14:27:22 GMT -5
Well, as promised:
Vote Lakai
I've already laid out my case against him, so I'm not going to bother to do so again.
I'm of the mind that there's 1 vanilla scum, and Flint. That said, here's my suspicion list in no particular order:
cowgirl - Doesn't say a whole lot, and does a lot of suspicion-mongering. Gadarene/notyetdead - Hard to say what twinged me, but something did panamajack - I don't think this is a surprise to anyone either, I've already made a case against him.
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Post by Lakai on Jun 22, 2007 14:31:19 GMT -5
Storyteller was the last one to vote for Pygmy Rugger in M2, pretty much sealing his fate. So scum will vote for scum, even when scum is in imminent danger.
This doesn't help me much, but it does prove FCOD's logic is somewhat flawed.
Kat, I think, was second to vote for Pygmy Rugger on that day. So this proves that scum doesn't exactly have a fixed plan on when to vote for someone, even if it's one of their own.
It just shows that a vote by scum towards me can easily be spun as a vote to blend into the crowd, no matter when they voted for me.
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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 14:36:51 GMT -5
Going by Lakai's posts (and scarcity thereof) on their own, I find him scummy. But if he is crew, that appearance of scumminess would make him the perfect target for a daytime pirate campaign against him. What do you think? I think that if he comes out as crew, then you'd be correct. Thing is, every game we have a few crew lynches that were the result of someone just "seeming" scummy. And there have been a couple of cases where the lynchee never had a single scum smudge/FOS/vote going against them. For me, I'm wondering if I've been way off base. capybara, thank you, you hit it right on the head why I don't think Lakai is Flint. If he is Flint, then there must be another scum out there. His seeming "don't care if I die" attitude and one-sentence posts are hardly what one would expect from a sole remaining pirate. Ach...I don't know. Either way, it's lunchtime (yes, I know, but I work a late shift). Plenty of time to pick through this muddle this afternoon.
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Post by sirblah on Jun 22, 2007 14:38:51 GMT -5
...and one-sentence posts... Ok, please can we get the "smacky" icon?
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 22, 2007 14:46:35 GMT -5
I’m not sure posting any of this will be helpful. It is all very weak.
Gadarene:
Day One, post #308 (bolding what I want to highlight) I didn’t think twice about this statement way back on Day One. Is it Pirate arrogance to think they won’t be night-killed? Did Gad forget about Dick Deadeye?
Here he employs the Townie-Trust Technique (TTT), and seriously smudges Auto.
Day Two, Post #8
This post in conjunction with forgetting that pirates can be night killed leads me to think that Gadarene is NOT Ben Gunn.
I’m about halfway through Day Three right now, and it’s mostly a culmination of feelings about his posting style and helpfulness, and generally feel-good-iness, that makes me feel uneasy. There are very few posts to pull out and say “Ha! Gotcha!” at.
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Post by capybara on Jun 22, 2007 14:47:58 GMT -5
Ok, this is possibly an extremely bad idea, but wanted to suggest the possibility. IF IF IF there is only one pirate left, would that exonerate whomever Mr Pig watched last night? A dangerous assumption, but . . . guh. If we knew there were indeed only one pirate left we could start widening the list of basically-confirmed crew. Someone hit me with a rolled-up newspaper if this reasoning is hogwash.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 22, 2007 14:59:33 GMT -5
Something that just came to me as I was looking over my notes...we have 12 people left...if there are 2 pirates and Gunn left, we outnumber them 3:1. While I would really love to kill the remaining scum in quick succession, I think that the odds are that we won't. I kind of feel like I'm back on Day One, and everybody who is left who isn't me (or a confirmed role) looks scummy. But now they look much scummier than they did on Day One. I don't have a strong case against anyone right now. I'm a little uneasy about how fast Lakai has garnered votes today, even though most people said they would vote for him again today. While he has certainly looked scummy to me most of the game, I don't think he is Flint. I will probably vote for him today based on my previous arguements, and if it turns out he is crew, we will still have a large majority. So I guess what I'm saying here is that we can afford to make a mistake. I really hope that doesn't sound scummy, but more of a reality check.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Jun 22, 2007 15:04:35 GMT -5
Ok, this is possibly an extremely bad idea, but wanted to suggest the possibility. IF IF IF there is only one pirate left, would that exonerate whomever Mr Pig watched last night? A dangerous assumption, but . . . guh. If we knew there were indeed only one pirate left we could start widening the list of basically-confirmed crew. Someone hit me with a rolled-up newspaper if this reasoning is hogwash. This is an excellent line of logic, but one I'm not sure we can employ just yet. If the pirates would kindly step up and let us know how many are left please?
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 22, 2007 15:11:14 GMT -5
Ok, this is possibly an extremely bad idea, but wanted to suggest the possibility. IF IF IF there is only one pirate left, would that exonerate whomever Mr Pig watched last night? A dangerous assumption, but . . . guh. If we knew there were indeed only one pirate left we could start widening the list of basically-confirmed crew. Someone hit me with a rolled-up newspaper if this reasoning is hogwash. I think your idea has merit, but not toDay. I would like to know who Captain Pig watched, however. I suspect he watched himself, so that won't help us anyway. --FCOD
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
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Post by Blaster Master on Jun 22, 2007 15:22:55 GMT -5
Ok, this is possibly an extremely bad idea, but wanted to suggest the possibility. IF IF IF there is only one pirate left, would that exonerate whomever Mr Pig watched last night? A dangerous assumption, but . . . guh. If we knew there were indeed only one pirate left we could start widening the list of basically-confirmed crew. Someone hit me with a rolled-up newspaper if this reasoning is hogwash. I think your idea has merit, but not toDay. I would like to know who Captain Pig watched, however. I suspect he watched himself, so that won't help us anyway. --FCOD I agree that capybara's idea is good, but ONLY if we're sure there's one scum left. In a game that started with 24, even though there were some pirate aligned roles, I just don't see less than four scum to start with, and I think more than four would be broken. It might be worth considering after we get another kill, but I don't want to accidently confirm someone who shouldn't be. Also, I suspect Mad was watching/blocking himself last night. If he was watching someone else, I think it would be a good idea to keep that a secret so the pirates don't get too much of a read on his though process.
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Post by notyetdead on Jun 22, 2007 16:09:15 GMT -5
Blaster Master, since you're here:
I am trying frantically to catch up, and I'm trying to focus on the discussion re: Lakai because that seems most pressing right now. I am having trouble understanding your case against him - it seems to involve voting blocs and traps and what not - and was hoping you could summarize it in a few quick sentences. Just outline the theory, because it seems fuzzy to me.
(NOTE: This is emphatically not a Finger of Anything at All. Just looking for clarification).
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On another note, I see a bit of suspicion as regards the poster formerly known as Gadarene (ie, me). I'm not going to be able to defend his posting in any great detail, but I'll do what I can if there are any specific concerns. Ultimately, I feel much as I did in my first incarnation - I'm just going to throw out whatever crosses through my brain until someone kills me for it.
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