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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 21, 2008 8:34:11 GMT -5
Look, I understand everyone's fears about NAF's win conditions allowing him to win soon. It is certainly possible if he hasn't told us everything. However, I am seeing what I perceive to be a misunderstanding of the conditions he disclosed, especially in hawkeyeop's last post. This troubles me since he is voting based upon a misconception.
This win condition would be very difficult to achieve, and as the game is now it not an option for NAF. It requires all the Horsemen to be alive (which they are not) and Sinister to be dead. Someone mentioned how they thought it would be extremely unlikely for this win condition to be real because it is so insanely difficult. I have to say I don't agree. Solo win conditions are normally extremely difficult to achieve, which is why PFKs normally have a second, easier win condition.
I am not sure whether both of these conditions have to be met or if just one does, but I will assume both. It doesn't really matter who wins, and since he's gotta identify the Horsemen for his personal win, why not tell the Town so he can accelerate the Town's win and therefore, his own?
I'm not saying we can trust him, since he may not be telling us everything, but I think it makes more sense to lynch KidV, since as others have pointed out he has given us no new info. If KidV is actually Town, we certainly aren't at LyLo yet (by his own admission) and we can kill NAF afterwards.
--FCOD
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Post by diggitcamara on Oct 21, 2008 8:35:41 GMT -5
KidV, what matters is where my vote is at the end of the Day, otherwise I would have just come in here on Day 1 and voted/unvoted everyone right off the bat and then voted normally the rest of the time. Right now I believe KidV more than I do NAF. NAF has been bugging me this whole game, and Kid's claim makes more sense to me than NAF's. That's not even counting the fact that people seem to be trusting the word of someone who admittedly lied to us. Right now however my vote wouldn't make a difference so I will leave it where it is. However, if anyone else moves theirs, I will do so as well if it leads to NAF being lynched. ... My vote is currently tying the lynch between NAF and KidV. Are you going to switch? If you don't, I'll have to switch again, to avoid the tie.
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Post by diggitcamara on Oct 21, 2008 8:37:23 GMT -5
Look, I understand everyone's fears about NAF's win conditions allowing him to win soon. It is certainly possible if he hasn't told us everything. However, I am seeing what I perceive to be a misunderstanding of the conditions he disclosed, especially in hawkeyeop's last post. This troubles me since he is voting based upon a misconception. This win condition would be very difficult to achieve, and as the game is now it not an option for NAF. It requires all the Horsemen to be alive (which they are not) and Sinister to be dead. Someone mentioned how they thought it would be extremely unlikely for this win condition to be real because it is so insanely difficult. I have to say I don't agree. Solo win conditions are normally extremely difficult to achieve, which is why PFKs normally have a second, easier win condition. I am not sure whether both of these conditions have to be met or if just one does, but I will assume both. It doesn't really matter who wins, and since he's gotta identify the Horsemen for his personal win, why not tell the Town so he can accelerate the Town's win and therefore, his own? I'm not saying we can trust him, since he may not be telling us everything, but I think it makes more sense to lynch KidV, since as others have pointed out he has given us no new info. If KidV is actually Town, we certainly aren't at LyLo yet (by his own admission) and we can kill NAF afterwards. --FCOD Well... he had a cover identity. What tells you he's giving us his real win condition at all?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 21, 2008 8:42:14 GMT -5
AS A REMINDER, IN CASE IT COMES INTO PLAY, IN THE EVENT OF A TIE, THE PLAYER TO BE LYNCHED WILL BE THE FIRST ONE TO REACH THE VOTE THRESHOLD AT WHICH THE TIE OCCURRED.
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 21, 2008 8:42:22 GMT -5
[quoteI am not sure whether both of these conditions have to be met or if just one does, but I will assume both. It doesn't really matter who wins, and since he's gotta identify the Horsemen for his personal win, why not tell the Town so he can accelerate the Town's win and therefore, his own?[/quote]
If town wins there are no surviving horseman, so NAF would basically be a straight survivor. You are of course correct, if NAF is being fully honest. We have no reason to believe that to be the case though. Of course he is going to give us a win condition that is very town friendly. I'm guessing there is one that is pro-scummy too that he isn't quite revealing.
We know we aren't wrong on NAF. We know we don't lose if KidV is alive tomorrow. Why should we take risks we don't need to?
--FCOD[/quote]
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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 21, 2008 8:51:13 GMT -5
We don't know that he's telling the truth about his win condition, by any means. That's why we have to weigh the risk that he could win toNight against the information we stand to gain. If we lynch NAF, we will never know if we can trust his lists, but if we lynch KidV and NAF is telling the truth, we have a narrowed list of potential horsemen.
I can still be convinced otherwise, but so far the only real issue I can see with letting NAF live another night is the slim possibility that he can win toNight.
--FCOD
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Post by peekercpa on Oct 21, 2008 8:53:39 GMT -5
Jeepers. You guys get all prolific right at the end.
Here are my pathetic ponderings.
If NAF is telling the truth then short term he seems more valuable than KidV
What I wonder (and here I go stepping in it again) is why if kidv is scum that NAF woud have gotten a scum reading of only one on both days that I was included on his list. I am a miller and to a normal investigative roll I should show up scum. So in the abscene of a power like PO's and knowing that CIAS is in fact scum it seems that his reading should have at least been two scum on his second list.
Now I'd like to believe that KidV is scum since he has been pinging me most of the game. Albeit to a some extent because OMGYS. I need to put that bias behind me and look at my previous paragraph.
Vote NAF
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 21, 2008 8:56:39 GMT -5
Vote KidV
I just realized it's quite possible for an elaborate scheme to be going on, with Pollux Oil, NAF, and Kid V the remaining Horsemen. However, I'm voting with Occam; I very seriously doubt NAF can achieve any type of sole win condition Tonight. We can take him out at our leisure, IMHO.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 21, 2008 8:57:42 GMT -5
Heh, peek. My previous post would explain why both of them got "Town" readings on you.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 21, 2008 8:59:25 GMT -5
Jeepers. You guys get all prolific right at the end. Here are my pathetic ponderings. If NAF is telling the truth then short term he seems more valuable than KidVWhat I wonder (and here I go stepping in it again) is why if kidv is scum that NAF woud have gotten a scum reading of only one on both days that I was included on his list. I am a miller and to a normal investigative roll I should show up scum. So in the abscene of a power like PO's and knowing that CIAS is in fact scum it seems that his reading should have at least been two scum on his second list. Now I'd like to believe that KidV is scum since he has been pinging me most of the game. Albeit to a some extent because OMGYS. I need to put that bias behind me and look at my previous paragraph. Vote NAFInteresting point, but I don't get the feeling that NAF's power is intended to be investigative (although he is exploiting it as such), and thus your Miller power doesn't apply. --FCOD
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 21, 2008 9:00:22 GMT -5
YOU ARE MOVING VERY QUICKLY TODAY. THE VOTE CURRENTLY STANDS AS FOLLOWS:
KidVermicious (6) – NAF, Almost Human, FCOD, MHaye, Hoopy Frood, Santo Rugger NAF (6) – KidV, Pollux Oil, bufftabby, hawkeyeop, diggitcamara, peekercpa Hoopy Frood (1) – Nanook peekercpa (1) – Darth Sensitive
THE DAY ENDS AT 12:00PM TODAY, OR IN ABOUT TWO HOURS.
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 21, 2008 9:04:07 GMT -5
We don't know that he's telling the truth about his win condition, by any means. That's why we have to weigh the risk that he could win toNight against the information we stand to gain. If we lynch NAF, we will never know if we can trust his lists, but if we lynch KidV and NAF is telling the truth, we have a narrowed list of potential horsemen. How will we know whether or not to trust him if we keep him alive? Kid coming up scum doesn't mean NAF is being fully honest elsewhere. If NAF has been truthful thus far, it doesn't mean he will continue to be in the future. He has a different agenda then us, and he always will.
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 21, 2008 9:04:52 GMT -5
YOU ARE MOVING VERY QUICKLY TODAY. THE VOTE CURRENTLY STANDS AS FOLLOWS: Just wait until we lynch someone currently with no votes.
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 21, 2008 9:07:44 GMT -5
I'll remove my vote if necessary, but I'd rather not.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 21, 2008 9:15:15 GMT -5
We don't know that he's telling the truth about his win condition, by any means. That's why we have to weigh the risk that he could win toNight against the information we stand to gain. If we lynch NAF, we will never know if we can trust his lists, but if we lynch KidV and NAF is telling the truth, we have a narrowed list of potential horsemen. How will we know whether or not to trust him if we keep him alive? Kid coming up scum doesn't mean NAF is being fully honest elsewhere. If NAF has been truthful thus far, it doesn't mean he will continue to be in the future. He has a different agenda then us, and he always will. We won't know. But if will kill him before we verify that he's telling the truth about his lists, we will lose that valuable information. --FCOD
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 21, 2008 9:22:52 GMT -5
But if will kill him before we verify that he's telling the truth about his lists, we will lose that valuable information. --FCOD We can't verify he has been truthful and more importantly we can't verify he will continue to be truthful. Keeping him alive won't change these facts.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 21, 2008 9:28:01 GMT -5
FTR, with the vote being tied at six, right now NAF is the lynch candidate, since he hit 6 first.
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Post by peekercpa on Oct 21, 2008 9:41:29 GMT -5
So, Blockey and chucara don't have a vote down. Wasn't it chucara who suggested voting early so we didn't have a last minute band wagon?
Best laid plans of mice and men.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 21, 2008 9:47:08 GMT -5
But if will kill him before we verify that he's telling the truth about his lists, we will lose that valuable information. --FCOD We can't verify he has been truthful and more importantly we can't verify he will continue to be truthful. Keeping him alive won't change these facts. I believe, as I said above, that he's being truthful about KidV; because if he's lied to us and we lynch the Kid, he'll be the victim the following Day. He could quite easily find himself pitched over a cliff before the weekend starts. So I'm fairly confident in the scumminess of KidV. If NAF has fed us KidV to buy time for his nefarious schemes, then fine. Unless they mature Tonight, he'll have to do more manoevring Tomorrow, won't he? And that risks exposing inconsistencies that will reveal the lie. Peeker makes a good point, though; certainly one that needs to be addressed. I think the issue is that the set of scum and the set of Horsemen are not the same thing. At least one person is scum without being a Horseman. Whether that is Apocalypse himself or Mister Sinister is not relevant. The upside of killing NAF is that we will learn his rolename and alignment, if not his powers. If he turns out to be Apocalypse, self-aligned deposed tyrant, then we can at least examine his lists again with that in mind. So the current lynch isn't too bad.
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Post by peekercpa on Oct 21, 2008 10:00:41 GMT -5
Jeepers. You guys get all prolific right at the end. Here are my pathetic ponderings. If NAF is telling the truth then short term he seems more valuable than KidVWhat I wonder (and here I go stepping in it again) is why if kidv is scum that NAF woud have gotten a scum reading of only one on both days that I was included on his list. I am a miller and to a normal investigative roll I should show up scum. So in the abscene of a power like PO's and knowing that CIAS is in fact scum it seems that his reading should have at least been two scum on his second list. Now I'd like to believe that KidV is scum since he has been pinging me most of the game. Albeit to a some extent because OMGYS. I need to put that bias behind me and look at my previous paragraph. Vote NAFInteresting point, but I don't get the feeling that NAF's power is intended to be investigative (although he is exploiting it as such), and thus your Miller power doesn't apply. --FCOD You are quite correct. I was parsing horseman equals scum. I figure that there has got to be a scum that are not horsemen. A leader type for sure.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 21, 2008 10:01:37 GMT -5
So, Blockey and chucara don't have a vote down. Wasn't it chucara who suggested voting early so we didn't have a last minute band wagon? Best laid plans of mice and men. blockey has not checked the mason board in the last 36 hours at least (I noticed he hadn't logged in within the last 24 hours last night and still hasn't visited as of this moment), so he hasn't been around for whatever reason. Chucara, I don't know anything on.
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Post by Chucara on Oct 21, 2008 10:11:30 GMT -5
Sorry guys, very busy day at work - I'm rereading in panic over all the things that has happened. I realize the irony
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 21, 2008 10:17:44 GMT -5
Listen, I don't really care if you kill me. Like I said, I need to be dead or subbed by Monday either way. But you already know my alignment, I am third party. You don't have to trust me that I am a survivor, I don't really care at this point. But killing KidV will tell you that I am telling the truth about my lists. At least it will give you a better idea.
To KidV's point that I have been playing anti town. Take a look at what I have said and done this game. I held off explicitly exposing KidV as scum because I was trying to get more information. If I hadn't been outed by Pollux as PFK I wouldn't have claimed until morning because I could have gotten even more information. The right play for investigators is to hold off claiming as long as is safe, not to just go spouting off information as soon as it is known.
Also, I didn't know for sure that KidV was the horseman on the list until Zeriel was killed. So I couldn't have told you anything on Day 2, it would have been Day 4. KidV is lying his ass off and spinning like a motherfucker trying to stay alive because he knows if I get lynched toDay you won't have anything else on any of the other scum. If I live another Night I can get futher information on scum. I have a protect power that I can use on myself to make sure I stay alive toNight so we don't even need to waste a doc on me. (See my role PM and precvious actions list.)
Beyond that, as a third party, at this stage in the game, lynching me is a mislynch. You know that. We went through this in both Batman and in Pollux's Apocolypse game. I have been confirmed as third party by a detective. I have helped confirm that detectives alignment by owning up to being a third party. I have been pushing town to make the correct play all game. The ONLY thing I did in my own self interest was not to name claim Apocolypse because, frankly, that is a death sentence.
I was given a full cover name and PM, my guess is so was KidV.
Lynching me is beyond a mistake.
Town has not been even attempting to be rational in the game so far. But I know some of the people on my wagon must be scum because right now I am more dangerous to them than just about anyone. I have the ability to confirm at least one more non horseman toNight and possibly catch a third scum for the town. The only person I can't directly find is Sinister and if the town wants to use me, then they will turn Sinister into an SK and town can win on numbers and random voting.
Just saying.
Oh, and story, if I do get lynched. Send me spoilers please.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 21, 2008 10:20:49 GMT -5
And town. As a person who thinks you have been playing with your heads up your asses all game, do yourselves the favor of really looking at who was on my lynch wagon, and why. There are some BAD votes for me (hawk) and you may want to look at the people who really wanted to see me dead by any means necessary.
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Post by Chucara on Oct 21, 2008 10:34:10 GMT -5
Ok, so here are my thoughts:
The best thing for town would be to be able to confirm Pollux, NAF and KidV somehow. The only surefire way of doing so is to lynch them.
There is no way I'm voting for Pollux, as he is the least scummy of them all. I strongly believe that NAF is PFK, but is quite possibly lying about his powers. I strongly believe that KidV is scum.
The thing is: I'm most inclined to believe NAF. He outed KidV when he wasn't really in focus (KidV, that is). KidV has provided no information that wasn't already there beforehand, so his claim is an easy one to make.
Therefore, I will vote KidV
I find it extremely convenient that he has only investigated one alignment I find it extremely convenient that he got the idea that Apocalypse might not be evil when everyone else thinks he is (and therefore investigated Apocalypse)
That being said, I think NAF should probably hang Tomorrow.
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Post by Chucara on Oct 21, 2008 10:42:42 GMT -5
God, I hate being the one to break the tie, but I have to vote for what I feel. And to me it is all really a matter of lynch-order. Here, I think we stand to gain more in this order.
Once again, sorry for casting a late vote - stupid life gets in the way at times.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 21, 2008 10:43:48 GMT -5
THE VOTE CURRENTLY STANDS AS FOLLOWS:
KidVermicious (7) – NAF, Almost Human, FCOD, MHaye, Hoopy Frood, Santo Rugger, Chucara NAF (6) – KidV, Pollux Oil, bufftabby, hawkeyeop, diggitcamara, peekercpa Hoopy Frood (1) – Nanook peekercpa (1) – Darth Sensitive
THE DAY ENDS AT 12:00PM TODAY, OR IN SEVENTEEN MINUTES, GIVE OR TAKE.
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Post by Nanook on Oct 21, 2008 10:47:32 GMT -5
In case anyone was thinking of switching to NAF and worried that it won't work, I'm here and watching and willing to break a tie for him to swing.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 21, 2008 10:48:19 GMT -5
Geeze, UATU, can't you just end the Day now so I can get some work done today?
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 21, 2008 10:49:13 GMT -5
In case anyone was thinking of switching to NAF and worried that it won't work, I'm here and watching and willing to break a tie for him to swing. Why didn't you switch before Chucara voted, if you wanted NAF lynched?
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