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Post by peekercpa on Nov 3, 2008 14:07:39 GMT -5
Well let's get this out of the way. Vote CIAS
I, too am struggling with why PO is still around.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Nov 3, 2008 14:22:06 GMT -5
Problem is: we have absolutely no way of confirming PO, and for him to be kept safe by scum, he'd have to be scum himself. This is highly unlikely, as scum already have one investigator. Unless of course, he is lying and just gave away the rest of scum to be safe. Somewhat unlikely as well. Certainly, there are better lynch targets right now. I say we let Pollux live in order to let him investigate someone from the uncertain pile. Then we can lynch him and presto: plenty of confirmed townies - or - last scum killed (possible third party win).
Basically, I don't see how we can lose to scum right now, but this may change. I am more fearful of a third party win though.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 3, 2008 14:38:07 GMT -5
I'm actually not in favour of Diggit performing a CIAS-ectomy. We know CIAS is a Horeseman, and we're fairly sure the bossman is hiding somewhere in the "uncertain" group. If we can narrow it down sufficiently, we might have a good shot at eliminating Mister Sinister (or whoever the scum leader is) Today.
That's not to say CIAS is a bad choice; I just want to pause before we rush to decide that he must be the lynch. If I can't make a halfway decent case within 30 hours (1:30am GMT Wednesday, that is), I'll join the Cry for Blood.
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 3, 2008 19:21:31 GMT -5
Problem is: we have absolutely no way of confirming PO, and for him to be kept safe by scum, he'd have to be scum himself. This is highly unlikely, as scum already have one investigator. Unless of course, he is lying and just gave away the rest of scum to be safe. Somewhat unlikely as well. Certainly, there are better lynch targets right now. I say we let Pollux live in order to let him investigate someone from the uncertain pile. Then we can lynch him and presto: plenty of confirmed townies - or - last scum killed (possible third party win). Basically, I don't see how we can lose to scum right now, but this may change. I am more fearful of a third party win though. You're right about the existence of another investigative scum. However, their investigator died on Night 4 (having had a chance to investigate during 4 Nights). Scum start off with additional information anyway (they know their fellow scum). They had the information that Rugger published. And they can talk to each other during the Nights, if not during the Day. So: what information has Pollux given us that scum, as a team, didn't know?
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 3, 2008 19:29:16 GMT -5
I'm actually not in favour of Diggit performing a CIAS-ectomy. We know CIAS is a Horeseman, and we're fairly sure the bossman is hiding somewhere in the "uncertain" group. If we can narrow it down sufficiently, we might have a good shot at eliminating Mister Sinister (or whoever the scum leader is) Today. That's not to say CIAS is a bad choice; I just want to pause before we rush to decide that he must be the lynch. If I can't make a halfway decent case within 30 hours (1:30am GMT Wednesday, that is), I'll join the Cry for Blood. I think CiAS is the best choice for my action. He's definitely scum; everyone else is only potentially scum. In the worst case scenario, we could opt for a no-lynch (since I'm going to bite the dust anyway) with a guaranteed kill.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 3, 2008 19:33:46 GMT -5
What I'm thinking is that, assuming there is a fifth Mafiate who is the leader of the Horsemen, that I'd rather eliminate that personr. If we can reduce the candidates to two, we could lynch one and you take the other.
If we can't reduce the candidates to 2, I'm quite happy to fall back on CIAS.
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Post by peekercpa on Nov 3, 2008 20:07:59 GMT -5
Does anyone remember who claimed first. chucara or pollux?
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Post by peekercpa on Nov 3, 2008 20:21:33 GMT -5
Regarding an additional third party. Also, caveating it with the fact that I belive there is a non horsey scum.
That would make the initial setup seventeen town, three PFK's and five scum. Top that off by giving scum a potential extra night kill and yikes for town. Add in the fact that I am a miller good for a town mis-lynch if investigated. That sure seems to be weighted heavily against town.
Also if we believe PO and his claim it seems like there would be a scum that comes up town.
I am sure there is a conclusion in here somewhere but will wait to see the answer to my previous question.
Sorry gals/guys but searching through this stuff on my BB is tough.
Little help chucara?
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Post by peekercpa on Nov 3, 2008 20:48:41 GMT -5
A little analysis: I've divided those living into a few groups according to certainty about their towniness. While I am pretty sure I'm town, I've opted not to color me blue as I can't really prove it to the rest of you guys.. Now that we've found all four horsemen, NAF lists are useless. Uncertain pool: Almost Human - Gambit chucara - Shadowcat (Watcher) FCOD - Longshot Mhaye - Wolverine The Pollux Oil group: bufftabby - Multiple Man peekercpa - Archangel (Town miller) Pollux Oil - Toad (Investigator) The confirmed group: CatInASuit - Sebastian Shaw (Scum Strongman)diggitcamara - Jean Grey (Town Special)misterblockey - Magik (Mason)The Pollux Oil group naturally depends on the truthfulness of PO, who might still be third party. Assuming that PO is town, we need to find out more about the people in the first pile. I have a nagging feeling that something bad'll happen when we lynch CiaS - so perhaps it would be a good choice for DC to take with him to the grave.. Finally, does anyone have an opinion on whether those in the first group should fully claim? I'm in the group, but have already claimed, so I won't offer any opinions. And even more finally, do we think there is a Mr. Sinister out there? And do we think there are more third parties we want to find before ending the game? I really have no idea right now, but I have a feeling that Mr. Sinister is still hiding somewhere.. Ok, never mind I found it, I think. chucara claimed first. Since that's the case(s)he has to have at least told the truth about night actions. (S)he stated that PO investigated me before his claim. Plus there's been a couple of more hits that have been confirmed. Course they could be working together but that would eliminate a PFK and mean six scum to start with. Just not seeing that. Therefore, low suspicion. FCOD appears to have Legacy. I haven't quite decided what that means but it can wait until later. That leaves MH and AH (you wanted two). Vote Almost Human
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 4, 2008 0:39:56 GMT -5
A little analysis: I've divided those living into a few groups according to certainty about their towniness. While I am pretty sure I'm town, I've opted not to color me blue as I can't really prove it to the rest of you guys.. Now that we've found all four horsemen, NAF lists are useless. Uncertain pool: Almost Human - Gambit chucara - Shadowcat (Watcher) FCOD - Longshot Mhaye - Wolverine The Pollux Oil group: bufftabby - Multiple Man peekercpa - Archangel (Town miller) Pollux Oil - Toad (Investigator) The confirmed group: CatInASuit - Sebastian Shaw (Scum Strongman)diggitcamara - Jean Grey (Town Special)misterblockey - Magik (Mason)The Pollux Oil group naturally depends on the truthfulness of PO, who might still be third party. Assuming that PO is town, we need to find out more about the people in the first pile. I have a nagging feeling that something bad'll happen when we lynch CiaS - so perhaps it would be a good choice for DC to take with him to the grave.. Finally, does anyone have an opinion on whether those in the first group should fully claim? I'm in the group, but have already claimed, so I won't offer any opinions. And even more finally, do we think there is a Mr. Sinister out there? And do we think there are more third parties we want to find before ending the game? I really have no idea right now, but I have a feeling that Mr. Sinister is still hiding somewhere.. Ok, never mind I found it, I think. chucara claimed first. Since that's the case(s)he has to have at least told the truth about night actions. (S)he stated that PO investigated me before his claim. Plus there's been a couple of more hits that have been confirmed. Course they could be working together but that would eliminate a PFK and mean six scum to start with. Just not seeing that. Therefore, low suspicion. FCOD appears to have Legacy. I haven't quite decided what that means but it can wait until later. That leaves MH and AH (you wanted two). Vote Almost HumanI'm also going to vote on this. However, I'll reverse your choice. I'll vote FCOD precisely because he announced his impending doom via Legacy Virus. 1. A mislynch of a dead man is less costly than that of someone else 2. We really have no way to verify his sickness
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Nov 4, 2008 3:48:58 GMT -5
I agree with DC: Just because FCOD says he got the legacy doesn't mean it's true, especially with a 25% chance of infection. It is basically a null tell at best. Unless someone else comes out and claims they've been infected tonight.
So: we have two options as I see it.
DayKill CiaS to avoid a bomb, lynch one of the uncertains Lynch two uncertains
Question is, how much do we distrust the uncertains? Is there really a reason to hide the full claim for them now? It's not likely that you have a power worse to third party or scum than PO.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Nov 4, 2008 5:50:12 GMT -5
I feel that CIAS is at least three times more likely to be a bomb than anyone else alive, and for that reason feel a daykill is the only option.
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Post by CatInASuit on Nov 4, 2008 7:39:30 GMT -5
I feel that CIAS is at least three times more likely to be a bomb than anyone else alive, and for that reason feel a daykill is the only option. Any particular reason for that slur on my character?
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Nov 4, 2008 10:13:48 GMT -5
Because you da bomb!
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Post by bufftabby on Nov 4, 2008 11:57:51 GMT -5
Agreeing with Blockey et al here: vote CiaS[/color].
A more pressing issue than DC's imminent takedown is who to lynch toDay. While I do have my concerns regarding PO, I'm not ready to vote for our claimed detective.
vote FCoD, from our "uncertain" pile. He's been pinging me all game, but never for any substantial reason. Thing is, I can't really make a case against anyone else right now either, as no one is jumping out at me as scum, so I feel like I should go with my gut.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 4, 2008 12:10:11 GMT -5
All right, since it seems likely that I'll hang toDay, I'll make my full role claim.
I am Longshot, and my powers are that I am incredibly lucky (bet you didn't see that one coming!). Any actions that target me that have a percentage chance of failure will always resolve in my favor. Basically, that means that the Legacy virus had a 100% change of infecting the target, because if there was any chance it could fail to infect me it would have. I'm not sure what that means, and I'm not even sure who first stated that the virus only had a 25% chance of infection, but someone was misinformed.
My second power is that every Day and every Night I must choose a target, who will become unlucky for that Day/Night. Any actions that target my target that have a percentage chance of failure will always resolve against my target's favor.
Here's my role PM in entirety:
Hopefully you can see why I didn't really care about the resolution of my night action, since I usually targeted someone I thought was scum but had no way of knowing what effect or even if any effect occurred for my target.
So, what does this all mean? Nothing, really. I have consistently told the truth throughout the entire game, and I am infected with Legacy as of this morning. I'm guessing that I'll die in a Day or two anyway, so lynching me isn't the worst thing the Town could do toDay. But, you will be lynching a Townie, and as I understand it I can still be cured of Legacy. We're in pretty good shape here. I'm guessing we have one scum and one PFK left amongst 10 players, so again, lynching me is not the worst the the town could do.
If anyone would like to give me a specific argument besides "he's been pinging me all game" I'd be happy to respond to it.
--FCOD
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Post by Mister Blockey on Nov 4, 2008 12:52:27 GMT -5
Vote FCOD
FCOD is one of the unknowns, and if as we've been stating and FCOD assumed as well, legacy has a chance not to infect, it would actually be impossible for him to be infected.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 4, 2008 12:58:35 GMT -5
Vote FCODFCOD is one of the unknowns, and if as we've been stating and FCOD assumed as well, legacy has a chance not to infect, it would actually be impossible for him to be infected. How do we know that Legacy only has a chance of infecting? Someone said it, but has it been verified? Here's what we do know: There were three vials of Legacy in the game. If they only had a 25% chance of working, that power is kinda crap, don't you think? I know there is a 100% chance of infection, because I am infected. --FCOD
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Post by Almost Human on Nov 4, 2008 13:03:37 GMT -5
First things first vote CIAS[/b]
Second things second vote FCOD
for the reasons I said earlier. Unfortunately nobody in the remaining pool of unconfirmed has really stood out that much as scum but out of them all FCOD has more IMO.
I'd still rather not post the rest of my role pm as once it's known it won't be much use. Chucara's the only one who seems to want to see it so I'm going to leave it for now.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Nov 4, 2008 13:05:48 GMT -5
Unvote FCOD
sorry I just woke up (from a nap) and I misread your post. I had thought it said you got infected because your power bypassed the failure result, not the logical conclusion you would make if you weren't lying, which would be the one you made.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 4, 2008 13:15:22 GMT -5
I agree with you up to a point but I think you should include in your list of possible Sinisters PO and DC though I think it's unlikely to be either of them we can't know for certain. Diggit Camera says he'll die toDay anyway so I think it's worth leaving him for now. Pollux Oil seems town and his information's been accurate as far as we know so I'm not keen on getting rid of him. Same goes for Chucara. MHaye, I think is the one who took out Hawk judging from Diggit's role pm so that looks pretty town to me. I seem to be painting myself into a corner here but I think the most likely Sinisters are myself or FCOD. As I know I'm not him then I'd vote for FCOD if it came to the crunch but I haven't really seen anything much that stands out particularly. Right now though we've got one definite scum still here. CIAS is still very much alive and doesn't seem to be going anywhere soon. I see your point about him maybe doing something bad if we lynch him but I don't think we should keep him about too long. I'd be for DC taking him out too. And yes I think there's a Sinister out there - my role pm pretty much confirmed it as did NAF's. I will post the rest of my pm if everyone wants but once I do it'll be pretty useless so I'm holding back for the time being. I happen to agree with your entire post here, especially the part about "I seem to be painting myself into a corner here but I think the most likely Sinisters are myself or FCOD." I know it's not me, so Vote Almost Human--FCOD
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Post by Almost Human on Nov 4, 2008 13:19:56 GMT -5
I happen to agree with your entire post here, especially the part about "I seem to be painting myself into a corner here but I think the most likely Sinisters are myself or FCOD." I know it's not me, so Vote Almost Human--FCOD I can't even argue with that one - exactly the same reason I'm voting for you I just hope the real Sinister isn't lurking anywhere else.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Nov 4, 2008 13:55:07 GMT -5
I'm actually not in favour of Diggit performing a CIAS-ectomy. We know CIAS is a Horeseman, and we're fairly sure the bossman is hiding somewhere in the "uncertain" group. If we can narrow it down sufficiently, we might have a good shot at eliminating Mister Sinister (or whoever the scum leader is) Today. That's not to say CIAS is a bad choice; I just want to pause before we rush to decide that he must be the lynch. If I can't make a halfway decent case within 30 hours (1:30am GMT Wednesday, that is), I'll join the Cry for Blood. Perhaps I missed something, in which case I'd like a revamp anyway, but I'd like full disclosure from MHaye, as diggit's role pm imply that he may not be fully town, at least once diggit's gone, and the above quote kinda feels like MHaye trying to get us to fall for a bomb.
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 4, 2008 15:44:50 GMT -5
I'm actually not in favour of Diggit performing a CIAS-ectomy. We know CIAS is a Horeseman, and we're fairly sure the bossman is hiding somewhere in the "uncertain" group. If we can narrow it down sufficiently, we might have a good shot at eliminating Mister Sinister (or whoever the scum leader is) Today. That's not to say CIAS is a bad choice; I just want to pause before we rush to decide that he must be the lynch. If I can't make a halfway decent case within 30 hours (1:30am GMT Wednesday, that is), I'll join the Cry for Blood. Perhaps I missed something, in which case I'd like a revamp anyway, but I'd like full disclosure from MHaye, as diggit's role pm imply that he may not be fully town, at least once diggit's gone, and the above quote kinda feels like MHaye trying to get us to fall for a bomb. Good point on MHaye. Even though he seems to have used his killing power for good this one time.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Nov 4, 2008 16:17:50 GMT -5
I have a feeling I'm missing something, but here's what I have on my players list right now:
Everyone has claimed powers as well as name, except:
mhaye - Wolverine Almost Guman - Gambit bufftabby - Multiple Man
Please correct me if I am wrong, so I can update the list..
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Post by Chucara on Nov 4, 2008 17:47:09 GMT -5
I have a strong suspiscion that MHaye is Sinister, but I'm not sure I want to vote for him, in case there is another third party out there.
Could Sinister please claim so town can lynch any third parties?
I really want to kill off any third parties before killing the last scum.. Another option would be to let CiaS live for now, and focus on killing uncertains and somehow confirming Pollux Oil.
Problem with this approach is: we don't know why CiaS is still alive, or how many a lynch will kill. As long as it isn't "the rest of us", it doesn't really matter.
Now, does anyone have a plan that'll clear PO once and for all, except killing him?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 4, 2008 18:28:03 GMT -5
I'm actually not in favour of Diggit performing a CIAS-ectomy. We know CIAS is a Horeseman, and we're fairly sure the bossman is hiding somewhere in the "uncertain" group. If we can narrow it down sufficiently, we might have a good shot at eliminating Mister Sinister (or whoever the scum leader is) Today. That's not to say CIAS is a bad choice; I just want to pause before we rush to decide that he must be the lynch. If I can't make a halfway decent case within 30 hours (1:30am GMT Wednesday, that is), I'll join the Cry for Blood. Perhaps I missed something, in which case I'd like a revamp anyway, but I'd like full disclosure from MHaye, as diggit's role pm imply that he may not be fully town, at least once diggit's gone, and the above quote kinda feels like MHaye trying to get us to fall for a bomb. I'm going to withdraw the suggestion. I simply hadn't considered the possibility that CIAS might have acquired the Marvel equivalent of Alfred's blunderbuss. Examination of the consequences if that is the case lead to some very bad scenarios. At worst we could be starting Day 9 with only five players. If we've left CIAS alive until then we have almost certainly lost. DiggitCamara to kill CIAS. Diggit. Perhaps I missed something, in which case I'd like a revamp anyway, but I'd like full disclosure from MHaye, as diggit's role pm imply that he may not be fully town, at least once diggit's gone, and the above quote kinda feels like MHaye trying to get us to fall for a bomb. Good point on MHaye. Even though he seems to have used his killing power for good this one time. Why do we think that you are still a Townsperson? Because we know the game's lead designer doesn't like making people change sides in the middle of a game. The same would go for any change in my status as a result of your earlier death. I have the same win condition now as I did at the start of the game. Chuchara. I have not, at this point, claimed. I think it's now in the interests of Town that I do so; I'm just off to get a link to my nameclaim post to avoid reinventing the wheel, as it were. I'll be back in a while.
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 4, 2008 18:46:40 GMT -5
Perhaps I missed something, in which case I'd like a revamp anyway, but I'd like full disclosure from MHaye, as diggit's role pm imply that he may not be fully town, at least once diggit's gone, and the above quote kinda feels like MHaye trying to get us to fall for a bomb. I'm going to withdraw the suggestion. I simply hadn't considered the possibility that CIAS might have acquired the Marvel equivalent of Alfred's blunderbuss. Examination of the consequences if that is the case lead to some very bad scenarios. At worst we could be starting Day 9 with only five players. If we've left CIAS alive until then we have almost certainly lost. DiggitCamara to kill CIAS. Diggit. Good point on MHaye. Even though he seems to have used his killing power for good this one time. Why do we think that you are still a Townsperson? Because we know the game's lead designer doesn't like making people change sides in the middle of a game. The same would go for any change in my status as a result of your earlier death. I have the same win condition now as I did at the start of the game. (snip) The point is, though, we never knew you to be a Townsperson. Granted, your Night kill of hawkeyeop makes it likely you aren't scum aligned, but: 1. Wolverine is, by any measure, a loner. The role could therefore be easily tweaked to be that of a PFK 2. You have a demonstrated ability to Night-kill, which, as my PM and my "death" showed, are subject to my continued existence. Without me, who knows what kind of restrictions you have? 3. Wolverine has a "berserker" mode. Maybe that is built-in to your role as well?
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Post by peekercpa on Nov 4, 2008 18:48:21 GMT -5
Just a couple of quick observations. Based on story[/]'s open hostility to recruitment DC has got to be town. Based in that I believe him when he says he kills and then goes bye bye again. I can't see a townie lying.
Something potentially bad could happen when CIAS gets sent back to bad guy heaven. I'd rather it be to someone who seems to already exiting stage right. The only downside is if it applies to the whole group regardless of participation in their demise and that it is directed as opposed to random.
I think that tomorrow, depending on PO's result from tonight that he gets to stand in next.
As I have already stated chuc is as close to confirmed as they get. At least in my book. Blockey is off limits.
buff and moi should wait until after PO is identified.
So we are back to the unholy trinity from which to lynch today.
I'm leaving my vote where it is but would consider moving it to Mhaye. I won't feather FCOD[/b] and if he's alive manana then that gives us information. po investigates ah or mh (whoever doesn't swing).
That's the path that gives us the most information. Of course if we get Sinister right then a PFK wins it.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 4, 2008 19:13:00 GMT -5
Diggit. Why do we think that you are still a Townsperson? Because we know the game's lead designer doesn't like making people change sides in the middle of a game. The same would go for any change in my status as a result of your earlier death. I have the same win condition now as I did at the start of the game. The point is, though, we never knew you to be a Townsperson. Granted, your Night kill of hawkeyeop makes it likely you aren't scum aligned, but: 1. Wolverine is, by any measure, a loner. The role could therefore be easily tweaked to be that of a PFK 2. You have a demonstrated ability to Night-kill, which, as my PM and my "death" showed, are subject to my continued existence. Without me, who knows what kind of restrictions you have? 3. Wolverine has a "berserker" mode. Maybe that is built-in to your role as well?[/quote]I understand your worries. The main point I was trying to make was that I have not changed sides. I read Misterblockey's post - the one you quoted and said "good point" to - as suggesting I might have changed sides as a result of your death.
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