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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 6, 2008 11:51:39 GMT -5
Pollux Oil is currently pinging me, hard:
1. So far we don't actually know how Mr. Sinister's role works 2. However, if Cat's actually telling a partial truth here, he seems to be some kind of concealed scum (i.e., not even his team mates know him) 3. But, he certainly would have info on the other scum. To what extent? Unknown 4. I asked a simple question at the beginning of this Day: Why did he investigate players whose roles were pretty clear? He has disappeared from the game since
Guesses: 1. He might have extracted the information about players that he disclosed from the results of the scum investigator (which he, in turn, published in the scum's thread) 2. In turn, this would have served as his id-card and have him protected from his fellow scum actions (they would see the published results in the Day thread and see the correlation to the information their investigator extracted)
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Nov 6, 2008 11:59:16 GMT -5
DC: That is entirely possible too. Killing PO gives us the following:
A) One dead scum/PFK B) A dead detective, and two confirmed town
Still, I'd rather let him live one more day, whether he is scum or not. He's not going to win tonight, and I'd rather root out PFKs before killing the last scum.
I'm really hoping MHaye is not PFK, and that PO will investigate him tonight if we don't kill him.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 6, 2008 12:34:44 GMT -5
I'm saying that your perception of the risk is skewed because you start with the belief that I'm not Town. What did you expect me to do? Make up some plausible lie? That's what non-Townies do; lie. It's ultimately how you tell the difference between Town and not-Town. Roll with me here... We have no reasons to trust that you are not PFK. I know you said so, but that isn't really going to cut it. You've got to admit that if your win condition is killing whoever killed Jean Grey, you'll win tonight if PO is telling the truth. That is a risk. Be honest now. What sort of a wincon is that? Given Storyteller's known aversion to changing sides in midstream, you're alleging that I was a PFK who could not achieve my separate win condition unless a specific event occured - an event which I would have no ability to help bring about. Sorry, but that would be a horrible piece of game design. You don't make a role that can only win if the role's enemies perform certain actions; you need to give them some chance. Your opinion is skewed as well, as you know you are town (if that is the case). And no, I didn't expect you to make up a plausible lie. I expected you to do exactly what you did if you were town. This isn't your fault in any way if you are town, but as you are in the pile of unconfirmed, you need to be prepared to face scrutiny. Frankly, I'm surprised that me and CiaS are the only ones doing so. Once again, I have moved my vote from you, but if you are town, try to see this from someone who doesn't know your alignment's perspective. It's a fair point that I know my alignment. But,since my initial reaction to CIAS's vote was to suspect that this is the way his role requires him to choose who gets offed by his bonus kill power, I'd suggest that you not read too much into CIAS going along with your suspicions. That would also suggest that he gets the bonus kill however he dies. If that is a correct suspicion, so be it. There's not a lot we can do to stop it happening. Of the three, I suspect that if there is a third PFK then it's FCOD. His power seems to be the most oriented to assisting in general survival. I can't see either AH's or Chuchara's claimed powers going to PFKs. I feel that Chuchara's power claim has been supported by other people's claimed actions, but AH's not so much. That (to my mind) makes AH a better candidate for being Mr. Sinister than Chuchara is(since their claimed role almost has to be a cover claim, just as NAF's claim of Cyclops was.) Vote Almost Human.
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Post by Chucara on Nov 6, 2008 12:40:15 GMT -5
Be honest now. What sort of a wincon is that? Given Storyteller's known aversion to changing sides in midstream, you're alleging that I was a PFK who could not achieve my separate win condition unless a specific event occured - an event which I would have no ability to help bring about. Sorry, but that would be a horrible piece of game design. You don't make a role that can only win if the role's enemies perform certain actions; you need to give them some chance. Now were getting to the core of why I was haggling you. I don't know what qualifies as a good wincon for a PFK. This is why I was asking others players with more experience.
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Post by bufftabby on Nov 6, 2008 12:46:29 GMT -5
MHaye, if you think FCoD is most likely to be PFK, then why aren't you voting for him instead of Almost Human? This makes no sense to me.
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 6, 2008 12:46:57 GMT -5
Be honest now. What sort of a wincon is that? Given Storyteller's known aversion to changing sides in midstream, you're alleging that I was a PFK who could not achieve my separate win condition unless a specific event occured - an event which I would have no ability to help bring about. Sorry, but that would be a horrible piece of game design. You don't make a role that can only win if the role's enemies perform certain actions; you need to give them some chance. Now were getting to the core of why I was haggling you. I don't know what qualifies as a good wincon for a PFK. This is why I was asking others players with more experience. Well... if his wincon was that one (killing my killer) 1. He'd already won. He already killed Pestilence who, in turn, killed me 2. He would have to get lucky to even be able to win because a.) I would have to be killed during the game (early to give him a good chance to wing) b.) I couldn't have been lynched. Which, btw, almost happened I really don't think he's a PFK, especially since we didn't have a "normal" Vig in this game. Even though a Vig isn't a required role, most of the games have had at least one. I see him as almost completely confirmed.
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Post by Almost Human on Nov 6, 2008 12:55:57 GMT -5
MHaye, if you think FCoD is most likely to be PFK, then why aren't you voting for him instead of Almost Human? This makes no sense to me. I'm hoping MHaye will change his mind but in the event of my death my strongest suspicions are for FCOD. I'm pretty sure MHaye's town rather than pfk and hope he'll take down FCOD toNight. I'd like to make a stronger case for my survival but it's clear there isn't much to go on between the two of us (neither of us can confirm our powers in any way) so I won't be too concerned about being chosen first as long as I know the other won't be far behind me
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Post by Chucara on Nov 6, 2008 13:03:54 GMT -5
Now, this probably means that the following will die tonight:
CiaS (DC) FCOD (MHaye or lynch) AH (MHaye or lynch)
I'm guessing PO will probably investigate me then. I'm not sure who to watch myself.
I have a feeling scum have a trick up their sleeve, and that Magik also has.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 6, 2008 13:51:56 GMT -5
MHaye, if you think FCoD is most likely to be PFK, then why aren't you voting for him instead of Almost Human? This makes no sense to me. First and foremost, I don't know that there are any more PFKs in the game. I do know that there is an undiscovered scum. Secondly, I'm just a little concerned about the possibility of a shortcut win for Mister Sinister. Thirdly, I want to see what happens to FCOD Overnight; as if he dies, either he or Peeker has told us an untruth (or, possibly, misunderstood something). Fourthly, even if I had voted FCOD, AH would still have swung. Those are the main reasons I voted as I did.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Nov 6, 2008 14:48:45 GMT -5
PAGE FOUR VOTE COUNT
Almost Human (5) – peekercpa, FCoD, misterblockey, chucara, mhaye FCoD (3) – diggitcamara, bufftabby, Almost Human mhaye (1) – CatinaSuit
A COUNTDOWN, IF ONE IS TO BE STARTED, WOULD BEGIN WITH EIGHT VOTES ON A SINGLE CANDIDATE. OTHERWISE, THE DAY WILL END ON SCHEDULE TOMORROW (FRIDAY) AT 1:00PM EST.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 6, 2008 14:51:08 GMT -5
So, if the countdown is started, what time will the Day end? --FCOD
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 6, 2008 14:51:56 GMT -5
Never mind. I thought it was a 24 hour countdown, but then I remembered it was 12 hour. --FCOD
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Post by bufftabby on Nov 6, 2008 15:04:17 GMT -5
Fourthly, even if I had voted FCOD, AH would still have swung. Oh really? *looks at above vote count*
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 6, 2008 15:40:16 GMT -5
Fourthly, even if I had voted FCOD, AH would still have swung. Oh really? *looks at above vote count* Yes, really. If I had voted FCOD instead of AH, the vote would have been tied at 4 each. In the event of a tie at the end of the Day, we have a tie. The tiebreak rule. from the Rules post, says : 8) (a) Voting thresholds will be announced at the beginning of each Day. (b) If the Day ends with a tie vote, the first player to reach that number of votes will be lynched. AH's fourth vote was placed by Chuchara (post D8.86) at 2:55pm GMT. My vote was placed at 5:34pm, over 2½ hours later. Thus AH would swing on tiebreak.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Nov 6, 2008 17:12:11 GMT -5
MHaye: There are still people who haven't voted.. Your vote would still count..
Second, you stated that you want to see what happens to FCOD over night? Who are you planning on killing then?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 6, 2008 17:42:50 GMT -5
Do you know how many people haven't voted? One. That person is Pollux Oil. If he votes FCOD then a switch by any current AH voter - yourself included - will result in FCOD swinging. Or alternatively we need two players to switch from AH to FCOD, in order to tilt the tiebreaks FCOD-ward. Who am I planning on killing? That would be telling. Seriously, I absolutely refuse to discuss my plans for the Night. I don't want to give the scum any hint of that ahead of Tomorrow's Dawn post. Neither would you if you were in my shoes.
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 6, 2008 17:52:06 GMT -5
Do you know how many people haven't voted? One. That person is Pollux Oil. If he votes FCOD then a switch by any current AH voter - yourself included - will result in FCOD swinging. Or alternatively we need two players to switch from AH to FCOD, in order to tilt the tiebreaks FCOD-ward. Who am I planning on killing? That would be telling. Seriously, I absolutely refuse to discuss my plans for the Night. I don't want to give the scum any hint of that ahead of Tomorrow's Dawn post. Neither would you if you were in my shoes. 1. FCOD is toast unless 2. peeker is able to save him 3. If FCOD dies, felled by the virus, peeker should be lynched 4. Obviously peeker's actions should be watched toNight Thus, I'll change my vote by unvoting FCoDand voting Almost Human
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Post by Chucara on Nov 6, 2008 18:04:51 GMT -5
MHaye: Well, yes and no. There very little chance that scum has a roleblocker. Still, I'll leave it up to you to decide, I just hope you and PO don't target the same person, and that we greatly reduce the uncertain pile.
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Post by bufftabby on Nov 6, 2008 19:48:29 GMT -5
Oh really? *looks at above vote count* Yes, really. If I had voted FCOD instead of AH, the vote would have been tied at 4 each. In the event of a tie at the end of the Day, we have a tie. The tiebreak rule. from the Rules post, says : 8) (a) Voting thresholds will be announced at the beginning of each Day. (b) If the Day ends with a tie vote, the first player to reach that number of votes will be lynched. AH's fourth vote was placed by Chuchara (post D8.86) at 2:55pm GMT. My vote was placed at 5:34pm, over 2? hours later. Thus AH would swing on tiebreak. Super. I understand the tiebreak rule. But I have a feeling that somewhere, in some mafia game at some point, a person or two has likely changed their vote from one person to another. Or the single player left who hadn't voted, broke a tie. Call me crazy, but I am willing to entertain the possibility that such a thing could happen again, rather than treat current vote counts as a fait accompli. In fact, I will illustrate this phenomenon of the "vote change", so that perhaps you may grow to understand the concept: unvote FCoD[/color] vote MHaye[/color]
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 6, 2008 21:06:45 GMT -5
1. FCOD is toast unless 2. peeker is able to save him 3. If FCOD dies, felled by the virus, peeker should be lynched 4. Obviously peeker's actions should be watched toNight Actually, if I die, it means that peeker is lying or doesn't understand something. He claims that the virus only has a 25% chance of killing. My abilities make it so that I will always get the desirable effect, so I can't die from the virus, if peeker is telling the truth. Therefore, if I die from the virus, peeker is lying or misinformed. --FCOD
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 6, 2008 21:34:59 GMT -5
1. FCOD is toast unless 2. peeker is able to save him 3. If FCOD dies, felled by the virus, peeker should be lynched 4. Obviously peeker's actions should be watched toNight Actually, if I die, it means that peeker is lying or doesn't understand something. He claims that the virus only has a 25% chance of killing. My abilities make it so that I will always get the desirable effect, so I can't die from the virus, if peeker is telling the truth. Therefore, if I die from the virus, peeker is lying or misinformed. --FCOD In other words: we are in agreement? (see point 4)
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 6, 2008 21:37:01 GMT -5
In other words: we are in agreement? (see point 4) Precisely. I just wanted to make sure that everyone watches for the right thing --FCOD
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Post by peekercpa on Nov 7, 2008 0:29:17 GMT -5
Ok. DC is town and will be dead in a bit. But fcod is making a spurrious argument. I know that this was discussed just a touch. How in the world can a favorable outcome guaratee on a one in four negative chance be flippin' positive?
Otie dotie.
Not shit for now. But a real Santo big swinging chance for a vote change while eating breakfast tacos in the airport in the morning.
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Post by diggitcamara on Nov 7, 2008 0:56:15 GMT -5
Ok. DC is town and will be dead in a bit. But fcod is making a spurrious argument. I know that this was discussed just a touch. How in the world can a favorable outcome guaratee on a one in four negative chance be flippin' positive? (snip) Because that's FCoD's stated power (turning an odds-based power to his favor, in this case, to save himself) If he's Mr. Sinister, he could be lying about that. Which could then mean that he didn't have the power in the first place and was lying about being sick. So don't let him off the hook completely even if he survives until toMorrow. On the other hand, you stated any investigation of you would give your alignment as "scum". And I dimly remember there was an actual investigation which rendered you as "town". Does anyone else remember that investigation?
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 7, 2008 2:30:36 GMT -5
Why are you investigating known quantities? Last time I checked, the last Horseman could have been either hawkeyeop or FCOD. So while it was assumed hawkeyeop was probably a Horseman, it wasn't 100% definite like you're making it sound. I don't see what the problem is. The possibility of confirming without a doubt that hawkeyeop was a Horseman was still advantageous. Pollux Oil is currently pinging me, hard: 1. So far we don't actually know how Mr. Sinister's role works 2. However, if Cat's actually telling a partial truth here, he seems to be some kind of concealed scum (i.e., not even his team mates know him) 3. But, he certainly would have info on the other scum. To what extent? Unknown 4. I asked a simple question at the beginning of this Day: Why did he investigate players whose roles were pretty clear? He has disappeared from the game since Guesses: 1. He might have extracted the information about players that he disclosed from the results of the scum investigator (which he, in turn, published in the scum's thread) 2. In turn, this would have served as his id-card and have him protected from his fellow scum actions (they would see the published results in the Day thread and see the correlation to the information their investigator extracted) Sorry I didn't respond sooner, I've just been busy adjusting to my new job schedule. I think I'm going to have to sit out Mafia for a while until I'm not so damn tired all the time. I haven't even been to the Dope in like two weeks. Anyway, again. I investigated hawkeyeop because it was either him or FCOD as the last Horseman. It was nowhere near 100% confirmed hawkeye was scum until he showed up dead this morning. I could have 100% confirmed it. --- I'll go ahead and Vote Almost Human. A combination of her claim seeming a tad off, as well as me believing FCOD's claim and him being a wee bit more testable thanks to his supposed infection. Sorry I can't be more specific, but my eyes are closing as we speak and my brain is fuzzy.
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Post by bufftabby on Nov 7, 2008 2:37:59 GMT -5
(Apologies to MHaye for the above snark. I am not myself today. I stand by the point I was making, but not my unpleasantness. I am really not myself.)
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Nov 7, 2008 3:29:54 GMT -5
Hm.. I really considering moving my vote back to MHaye. Right now, he's pinging me more than FCOD or Almost Human. I don't like that we give him so much faith for a simple vigilante claim. Let me just ponder it for a while..
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Post by CatInASuit on Nov 7, 2008 7:39:14 GMT -5
Well, thats it from me for the Day and probably the game as well.
Happy Hunting Mr Sinister.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Nov 7, 2008 8:18:51 GMT -5
(Apology accepted, Bufftabby. Sorry that I upset you; I thought you'd forgotten the tiebreak rule.)
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Post by The Real FCOD on Nov 7, 2008 10:31:49 GMT -5
Ok. DC is town and will be dead in a bit. But fcod is making a spurrious argument. I know that this was discussed just a touch. How in the world can a favorable outcome guaratee on a one in four negative chance be flippin' positive? DC already covered this, but yeah. My powers make it so that any action that affects me that has a percentage chance of failing or succeeding will always resolve favorably for me. So even if there was a 90% chance that the virus could kill me, it won't. Since peeker claims that the virus kills only 25% of the time, it will never kill me. --FCOD
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