Merestil Haye
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 9:33:56 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 28, 2007 9:33:56 GMT -5
The next topic I wanted to turn my attention to was one BlaM brought up early on. On another topic, while it's on my mind. I want to discuss the repercussions of the psychos and geniuses being able to strategize during the day, and everyone being able to strategize at night. 1. This DOES change some of the first day strategy, because in each of the previous games, the scum had not had a chance to strategize in the first game prior to the end of the first day. 2. I think this will allow scum a very powerful tool for pulling of much more intricate schemes because they'll be able to fully coordinate as it unfolds, which is at least part of the reason why I think scum have not tried anything truly dastardly in previous games. 3. I think this will VASTLY improve the value of the genius role. Because they can discuss tells and such at their leisure without worry of being manipulated. Further, if there are any less experienced players, they can get guidance. They can also maintain suspicions on players (including scum and pro-town power roles) openly with each other which will probably make their voting block much more potent than in past games. 4. Like with the scum, the geniuses may actually be able to pull off a coordinated effort to attempt to trap scum.Does anyone else have any thoughts? Most of my experience has been in games with Day/Night patterns like this one, with no ban on discussion at Night and the scum able to discuss freely at any time. It does make it easier for the scum to respond to the unexpected. The only case I had direct experience in was one game when I floated the idea we try a spoof investigator roleclaim, relying on the hidden Bodyguard to protect the candidate. We'd "investigate" a player and proclaim him Town, then kill him at night. If we came under pressure, sacrifice one of our own. If the real PO claimed, he'd hopefully not have investigated one of us on night 1; and if he'd investigated the spoof claimant we had the “You would say that” defence primed and ready to go. We had to abandon the plan very suddenly when the victim proved to be the Bodyguard. Since the game was in the Day equivalent I could just do an e-mail to my cohorts rather than risk a comment like “With the death of the Bodyguard the PO can't risk claiming.” (Bodyguards had to guard someone else – they weren't allowed to guard themselves. Before someone asks.) Hal Briston raised a good point. He said : Which ties in to something that's been twinging at me -- aren't the scum at much more of a disadvantage this time around? (Skip a bit, Brother.) One thing that causes great concern for me -- since the scum don't have their usual advantage (bring the only ones with private discussions) this time around, I'm afraid that something else would have to be done to tilt the advantage away from town and back toward the middle. Barring the presence of a super-secret pro-scum role, there is only one other thing I can think of that could provide this -- additional scum. So to sum up, I think we'll have to consider that we're up against a rather large Psycho team. The Psychos do gain an advantage by being able to strategise in the Daytime, and should probably outnumber the Geniuses anyway. However, the Psychos have no hidden member – no-one is immune to the Therapist. I'd expect no more than 5 Psychos; just possibly 6. With seven Psychos the scum are three successful lynches from winning. That's not much of a margin. (Admittedly the town have an increased chance of hitting scum in the early game – but they have to keep doing it.) Conclusion : Based on somewhat limited personal experience, the scum have an increase in flexibility, added to which they have real-time access to Town reactions to the lynch death. Against this are masons who can talk.
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Death By Irony
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 10:20:18 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Jul 28, 2007 10:20:18 GMT -5
Maybe this is a little too WIFOM-y, but maybe one of the scum offered HIMSELF up as a vote-leader as a distractionary tactic. Or, worse, ALL of the candidates are townies!
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 10:27:51 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jul 28, 2007 10:27:51 GMT -5
It's entirely possible that all the candidates are town and so is every person that has voted for one of them. It's not out of the realm of possibility on Day one-- scum could just be watching all of this with gin and tonic in hand. Likely there are scum on the bandwagons for flavor for the spreadsheet, though. Now, what do you mean about scum offering themselves up? Care to elaborate on that? Distraction from what? It's a strange theory.
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Death By Irony
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 10:52:17 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Jul 28, 2007 10:52:17 GMT -5
Like I said, extreme WIFOM. I don't think scum actually would bus one of their own on Day 1, but still.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 11:49:37 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 11:49:37 GMT -5
drainbead (6) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman
Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara
GreedySmurf (4) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
16 of 19 votes cast. Day ends in three hours and eight minutes.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 11:50:54 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 28, 2007 11:50:54 GMT -5
Further on the dnooman hoo-hah, I do find it amusing that the people who were voting for him to get him to start posting immediately turn round and start voting for me instead for doing the same. That seems fair. At the time you placed your vote for dnooman, there were 2 people with 3 votes and dnooman had 2. Two votes do not a lynch make, but when you tossed him into a 3 way tie for leading vote getters, it brought in the very real possibility that he could be piled on and lynched. The intention of my vote was to get his attention. I'm a little suspicious of cowgirl for adding her vote, but very suspicious of you for yours. Neither were really necessary. That being said, I'm not all that pleased with the way people have piled on to you either. I think it is likely that between you ( Mal), Greedy Smurf, and DrainBead, there is a scum. Greedy has voted for DrainBeadDrainBead has voted for MalMal has no vote yet as he took his off Dnooman. If he votes Greedy, then we get a good old-fashioned Mexican Standoff. I've tried to work through the if X is scum, then Y can't be because of Z. It's getting me no where, and making my head hurt. Well, voting for dnooman didn't create a tie, because there already was one. A mere two votes didn't seem to be getting his attention; the third one apparently did, and for this I get attitude? Thanks a bundle. I guess a vote for DrainBead would look like trying to save my own neck, so I'd better not. So because it's funny, and because I trust one or two other people's instincts, I think I'll make Hockey Monkey's head hurt a little more. Vote Greedy Smurf
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 11:54:25 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 11:54:25 GMT -5
drainbead (6) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman
Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
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RoOsh
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 12:49:09 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 28, 2007 12:49:09 GMT -5
MY thoughts on the numbers game was this since i like symetry and eveness: 4 scum, 1 crazie townie, 3masons, 1 cupid=9 roles. and then 10 townies. Split it down teh middle 50-50 ya know?
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RoOsh
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 12:51:23 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 28, 2007 12:51:23 GMT -5
It's entirely possible that all the candidates are town and so is every person that has voted for one of them. It's not out of the realm of possibility on Day one-- scum could just be watching all of this with gin and tonic in hand. Likely there are scum on the bandwagons for flavor for the spreadsheet, though. With sixteen votes in though we can certainly see that somewhere one these lists there is a scum vote, whether its to protect or not.... Unless there were only 3 scum and they all not voted and chose to get gin&Tonics.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 12:56:09 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Jul 28, 2007 12:56:09 GMT -5
Well, voting for dnooman didn't create a tie, because there already was one. A mere two votes didn't seem to be getting his attention; the third one apparently did, and for this I get attitude? Thanks a bundle. For the record, by the time I checked back in, both yours and Cowgirl's votes were in. I would have replied after just Cowgirl's had you not voted yet. So, don't break your arm patting yourself on the back.
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RoOsh
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 12:56:26 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 28, 2007 12:56:26 GMT -5
Here's a question for later now: What is our advantage to speaking at night? For me it just SOUNDS like a bad idea and a way to muddy up the waters a LOT. It seems like we'd be playing into the Scum's hand by talking abuot things at night.
Currently in all the previous games we have the day's information to go through. But with Night discussions we're going to introduce another variable into the data points. So then we could have more problems because if someone was talking during the night and killed, then we have to wonder- were they killed because of what they said during the day? Or did they get killed for something they said at night? And it might just confuse us more, because the Killers would just wait till the last moment to vote, and wait and see who could be the most confusing vote or something by the night's discussion end.
I feel that I don't wanna give them that advantage, and that we shouldn't really talk at night, because 1) The town's won before w/o that ability. and 2) It'd make the nights go quicker too hopefully. and 3) I just don't wanna muddy the waters more having to wonder about Day suspicions vs. night ones....
Of course, if you think you're going to die, then of course you should spill the beans and talk at night but still.... other than that, can someone help me out: What's the advantage to night posting other than "it encourages more talking= more data"?
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 12:57:48 GMT -5
Post by nesta on Jul 28, 2007 12:57:48 GMT -5
I find drainbead and Malacandra about equally scummy, and so far no one else seems as likely to be scum as one (or both) of them. I find Malacandra’s third vote for dnooman very strange. That’s the single scummiest thing I’ve seen so far this game. I’m not sure what to think of his post about the geniuses going for a genius only win. On one hand, I agree with his point that if they go for their exclusive win that they have an advantage since they can coordinate just like the scum, but the way he phrased this makes it sound like the geniuses playing for a town win isn’t likely, and I think they probably will. As Hal pointed out from his experience of trying for a mason win it almost cost both the masons and the town the game. There isn’t a whole lot to go on with Malacandra, though, other than those two things. They seem scummy to me, but it could just be his not thinking things through, so for now I’ll FOS Malcandra. As for drainbead, many of her posts ping my scumdar. Especially this bit: I have a really bad feeling that all three of our leading vote getters are town--I know my own role, of course, and I'm pretty sure that Greedy Smurf's errors are more the mistakes of newbie town than scum. I'm not sure about dnooman, but only because we've been given very little to go on there. I don't necessarily think Lynch all Lurkers is a good plan this early in the game, but then again, what is? As I re-read her posts I got an uneasy feeling that something wasn’t right. Vote drainbead.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 13:03:14 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 13:03:14 GMT -5
Well, nobody HAS to talk strategy at Night. It's up to you, but it's not required.
If you or anyone wants to make posts like relaxing and drinking, that's fine. If you want to joke and fill up the Night topic with flavor, that's fine. But if you do want to maybe discuss what people's deaths and teams mean, that's fine too. Or where to start looking next maybe.
Really, anything is fine at Night as long as it's not actual votes or saying "I think we should vote for...." or "I'm going to vote for..." "...[player] tomorrow."
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 13:04:05 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 13:04:05 GMT -5
Oh and...
drainbead (7) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman, nesta
Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
A little under two hours left.
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Merestil Haye
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[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 13:20:15 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 28, 2007 13:20:15 GMT -5
I'm going to spend some time looking at the cases for the two other vote leaders, to see if my vote would be better placed elsewhere. I start with GreedySmurf (because he won the dieroll). First vote (I'm not counting Kat's) was from Jsexton. He presents his argument in post 252. In summary, his case is that GreedySmurf has a few traits that together indicate scumminess. He appends to this GreedySmurf's suggestion of a no lynch. Second vote came from Hal Briston in post 257, reviewing the above justification. While he doesn't accept every point, the quote “I don't feel comfortable just throwing out strategy posts” seals the vote. DiggitCamara votes in post 259. He accepts Jsexton's case. Kat voted in post 325. Her grounds for the vote are that GreedySmurf voted for DrainBead to save himself. If that is the only reason, it is a touch scummy. Against that is that the analysis (I'm vanilla, is the other guy also vanilla, or might he be a Town power role?) is a fairly advanced question and not one I'd expect GreedySmurf to pick up on. If a townie genuinely thinks the other player in the race is scum, his duty is clear. Finally Malacandra's vote in post 335 was pitched to avoid the above criticism, which makes me hesitate a little. There are two basic arguments pointing toward GreedySmurf's scumminess. The “general tone” argument put forward by Jsexton and Kat's pointer that he voted for self-preservation, which I can't hold against him. I'm therefore not going to change to GreedySmurf. I have a short question to review wrt the vote that got Malacandra into trouble, then I'll look at DrainBead.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:18:07 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 14:18:07 GMT -5
34 minutes left.
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RoOsh
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:21:33 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jul 28, 2007 14:21:33 GMT -5
Good luck Mhaye with your searching then....
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:21:57 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jul 28, 2007 14:21:57 GMT -5
Pretty quiet in here for a near-three-way-tie with 1/2 hour left. . . Any of the principal candidates want to bother with anything like a defense?
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:24:29 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 14:24:29 GMT -5
18 of 19 players have voted, by the way.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:29:27 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jul 28, 2007 14:29:27 GMT -5
The fact that there is little movement right now makes me nervous, actually. If we were about to lynch scum I think they would do something/anything about it? Unless all the scum have votes elsewhere already and don't have much in terms of new arguments to try to convince anyone otherwise? No one seems to be coming to DrainBead's defense, however-- how do we feel about that, collectively? (This is not mean as a defense of here-- so no dumb irony here-- but rather a neutral calling to attention of lack of defense)
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:31:07 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Jul 28, 2007 14:31:07 GMT -5
Ah. Dotchan? Any input?
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:32:37 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 28, 2007 14:32:37 GMT -5
I find Malacandra’s third vote for dnooman very strange. That’s the single scummiest thing I’ve seen so far this game. I’m not sure what to think of his post about the geniuses going for a genius only win. On one hand, I agree with his point that if they go for their exclusive win that they have an advantage since they can coordinate just like the scum, but the way he phrased this makes it sound like the geniuses playing for a town win isn’t likely, and I think they probably will. As Hal pointed out from his experience of trying for a mason win it almost cost both the masons and the town the game. Goodness gracious me. Am I getting slammed for both saying and not saying that the Genii might go for a Genius-only win?
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:36:57 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 14:36:57 GMT -5
drainbead (7) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman, nesta
Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
Twenty minutes to go.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:37:57 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Jul 28, 2007 14:37:57 GMT -5
The fact that there is little movement right now makes me nervous, actually. If we were about to lynch scum I think they would do something/anything about it? Unless all the scum have votes elsewhere already and don't have much in terms of new arguments to try to convince anyone otherwise? No one seems to be coming to DrainBead's defense, however-- how do we feel about that, collectively? (This is not mean as a defense of here-- so no dumb irony here-- but rather a neutral calling to attention of lack of defense) Feel? Sucks to be DrainBead, but it's Day One, and in the mathematically likely event it's an unjustified lynching, them's the breaks. We have to get evidence going somehow, and while the town may occasionally get lucky and toast the Alpha Werewolf on Day One, mostly they're going to waste one of their own. I've yet to see a town strategy that can possibly get round this.
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Merestil Haye
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:40:42 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 28, 2007 14:40:42 GMT -5
The pattern I thought I had spotted in the Malacandra votes was not there. I did note that the person who broke the 3-way tie was in fact GreedySmurf. He was open about it though. (I'd be far more suspicious he had tried to keep quiet about it,) On to DrainBead. The first vote was by Storyteller0910 and presented as an icebreaker. Storyteller0910's reasons begin to emerge in post [url=http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=asylumlane&action=display&thread=1185314220#1185479438[/url] 185[/url] and are developed in 237. They break down into two groups – arbitrary and meaningless distinctions that are used to present an action in a less significant light, and that DrainBead voted on demonstrably (at the time) false grounds. The second was from Roosh in post 229. It's a long post in which he dissects several suspicions before voting. He bases his vote on (i) repeated joke votes and (ii) that DrainBead says she dislikes people voting without reasons, but had previously said she voted randomly if she can find a silly reason for it. (Cites are in Roosh's post). This nearly got DrainBead my vote last night. Especially after, in post 236, DrainBead quoted Roosh's entire post but failed to address the core issue – that a vote with a silly reason is virtually indistinguishable for a vote for no reason. Then we come to MadTheSwine. His vote in 240 is followed up (within 10 minutes) by an explanation which boils down to “I agree with Storyteller0910's reasoning.” Then voted BlaM in post 283. He points out that post 64 seems to have a slip of the tongue – as if DrainBead doesn't consider herself to be a part of the Town. He's also concerned about the way the votes built up, which could point to GreedySmurf as well as DrainBead. I've already noted that GreedySmurf's basic motivation for his vote in post 293 is self-preservation. It says nothing about DrainBeads' alignment. Dnooman came along and voted in post 311, and I find he makes a good deal of sense. His argument that assuming Malacandra is town makes more sense of his vote than his being psycho is very strong. I'm still suspicious of Malacandra but this pushes it back a bit. Dnooman's reasoning to vote DrainBead is based on Storyteller0910's reasons plus asking the question of how she knew he was Town. Finally nesta voted in post 341. His vote is based on an overall impression, but he particularly pointed out an extract from post 264. I came close to voting for DrainBead after post 236, and Dnooman's post makes a good case for her over Malacandra. Unvote Malacandra. Vote DrainBead. Malacandra heads my suspect list for Tomorrow. List subject to change without notice.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:43:12 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 14:43:12 GMT -5
With fourteen minutes to go:
drainbead (8) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman, nesta, mhaye
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Malacandra (4) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, capybara
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:51:37 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 14:51:37 GMT -5
Five minutes left. There won't be another time update.
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Death By Irony
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:52:08 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Jul 28, 2007 14:52:08 GMT -5
Maybe because I'm contrary (or dumb), I just don't see the so-called scum tells. My own experience tells me that sometimes townies will accidentally (or purposely) say eyebrow raising things to stir up discussion and lure scum out of the woodwork.
And though we are short on time, I'm not going to vote for the sake of voting.
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Day One
Jul 28, 2007 14:56:39 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2007 14:56:39 GMT -5
"HER!" Someone cried and then the ensuing pile on occured. Seems they all singled out drainbead and many jumped forward to lynch.
They dragged her outside and threw a rope over a tree as the mayor looked on accordingly. Fashioning a noose of the other end, they slipped it around her neck and made her step up onto an orange crate. Two people stepped up and tied her hands behind her back.
Looking out at everyone with surprisingly calm eyes, she closed them for a minute and then opened them again and started to try to bite the people on either side of her. Lashing out viciously, she struggled at her bounds and looked like she might break free until someone had the sense enough to quickly kick the crate out from under her. She fell, her full weight snapping her neck like a twig and then hung limply there. As if the biting wasn't enough, a small, thin strip fell from her hand where she was conceeling it all long.
It was a hospital ID bracelet.
drainbead, a Psychopath, has been lynched.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- It is now Night. Please PM me with protection and analysis, Doc and Therapist. Scum may feel free now to talk on the Psycho boards about who to kill off.
Night will end on Monday, July 30th, at 11am PST, or as soon as all Night instructions are in.
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Day One
Aug 9, 2007 12:09:01 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 9, 2007 12:09:01 GMT -5
I said I was gonna take a closer look at Greedy today,so here it is. When I decided to do it,I thought he had made a post that he didn't make, but as I was reading, one thing did raise a flag that hadn't been mentioned yet,but I am curious if he keeps doing it or not,so I won't share... unless a lot of you really want to know and think I should spill it. Other than that I ain't got a whole lot on him,but he aint posted much either.Not enough to justify a vote yet anyhow.
I do agree that Jsexton is certainly being way more cautious than in M1 and doesn't seem like the same player I played with back then.
Now,I am gonna go find that post I thought Greedy made and find out who it is.
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