Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
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Karma:
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Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 3:50:24 GMT -5
Colour me confused. Last night I pounded out a post explaining why I switched my vote at the end of Day 1. I previewed it, I tested the links. Apparently I then switched off without actually posting it. In summary, because I have to go out in 30 minutes : In 1.310 I voted Malacandra. It was at the end of a long reread, it was late and Mal's vote struck me as scummy. It was certainly totally unnecessary. The next day I made two topic posts, and then decided to analyse the cases against GreedySmurf and DrainBead to see if either of those two were more deserving of my vote. I concentrated on them because they were the only two possibilities my vote might effect. I reviewed the case against GreedySmurf in 1.344. I was not satisfied that it was stronger than the case against Malacandra. I did note though, that I felt the case against Mal was weakened by his action in post 1.335. I would not have held a vote for DrainBead against him; but he chose to vote for someone who was less likely to be hanged instead of him. I felt the same way in M4 (when HockeyMonkey refused to save her neck by voting for the easiest other candidate on Day 2). One does need to remember, though, that Mal reffed M4. He may be scum using a known town-looking ploy. I think that's far enough down the slippery slope of WIFOM. I believe it tends to show towniness, but acknowledge that a gutsy Psychopath could do it. In 1.354 I turn my attention to the case against DrainBead. I decided that the case against her had a couple of very strong pointers, namely (i) BM pointed out that she used "the townies" in one post, suggesting she thought of the townies as a group she was not in, and (ii) Roosh pointed out a discrepancy in her posts - a discrepancy she failed to address even when she quoted Roosh's posts in their entirety. That and dnooman pointing out Mals vote doesn't make much sense if you assume he is Psycho, led me to decide that DrainBead was more likely to be psycho than the Lord of War, and I voted for the one I was then most suspicious of. This means in future days when context has been lost in the blur of distance, my opinions will be more accurately reflected.
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 2, 2007 6:38:32 GMT -5
First up, my earlier post, though brief, was composed before dnooman's effort, but posted after thanks to having to do some RW stuff just before 9am local time; so I didn't take dnooman's post into account, or fully digest posts #135 on. On re-reading, I share the suspicion of cowgirl and I find it odd the way her vote and dotchan's switched targets, agreed, but I'm not sure whether that means they're in cahoots or one of them is taking advantage of the other one conveniently jumping in the direction they want. As well as digesting the implications of Genii being able to strategise off-board, I think we're still getting to grips with the scum having full latitude during the Day, and for my part I haven't made up my mind whether that means we're going to see them play more cautiously and "sensibly", or more riskily. Darned WIFOM again! I move we not assign it much weight either way, but I'm open to being corrected, especially if we have players on board who've either used or seen used a similar condition in another game. On the whole I am far from convinced that scum would dare pull anything so obvious as a block vote this early in the game, when there are plenty of Days left for it to come back and bite them, so I sorta figure that if one of this pair is scum it's less likely that the other one is, and if I have to choose between the two of them, I think it's got to come down to this: vote dotchanPart of me would like to be convinced to change my mind though.
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Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 7:41:49 GMT -5
A little time line is in order I think, maybe this will make Cowgirl's reasoning for voting Mal seem more clear.
Day one at 2:01 pm (my time) Mal makes that third fateful vote for me. The score is then:
drainbead (3) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine GreedySmurf (3) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera dnooman (3) - Hockey Monkey, cowgirl, Malacandra Mhaye (1) - kat
2:22 pm Cowgirl posts post #275 and doesn't mention Mal's vote. She may have still been typing, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt there.
2:51 pm Master Blaster notes his suspicion about Mal's vote.
2:59 pm Hockey notices Mal's vote, unvotes me, and votes for him. Score:
drainbead (3) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine GreedySmurf (3) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera dnooman (2) - cowgirl, Malacandra Mhaye (1) - kat Malacandra (1) - hockeymonkey
The third vote for me is discussed for a little while between Hockey and Master Blaster. Master Blaster votes for DrainBead. Could it be that the top vote getter is scum (we now know this was true) and the second leading vote getter was being voted for by all scum? Wouldn't want to have you all voting for one innocent townie would you? Maybe Greedy was scum being voted for by townies, couldn't have that now either.
3:58 pm Cowgirl posts this: You note that you'd already called me out on it, yet you later vote for me, and try to deflect the blame.
4:00 pm (two minutes after Cowgirl's post) DrainBead votes for Mal. Score: 12 of 19 have voted.
drainbead (4) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master GreedySmurf (3) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera dnooman (2) - cowgirl, Malacandra Malacandra (2) - hockeymonkey, drainbead Mhaye (1) - kat
23 hours and 50 minutes left. Looks like those 4 votes for DrainBead aren't gonna change (especially if they are all town votes). What to do?
Finally at 4:41 pm Cowgirl writes:
Her vote for Mal toDay:
So, you voted for me after Hockey did citing the same "get me talking" reasoning. Then, you vote for Mal after Hockey did, citing the same "lurker pile on" reasoning.
ToDay you vote for Mal after Dotchan did, then unvote Mal and vote for Roosh after Dotchan did. To me, this seems like you are piggybacking on other townies ideas, possibly to blend in?
In all that time in between Mal voting for me, and you voting for him (2 hours and 40 minutes) I can only imagine you were trying to figure out what to do, on the private scum board. The actions and interactions between you, Hockey, DrainBead and Dotchan, seem really fishy to me. Now that we know the allegiances of 2 of them, I think I can guess yours.
Mhaye's rebuttal was less than stellar IMO, but more importanly, he seems less scummy to me today than Cowgirl does.
Vote Cowgirl
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 8:23:11 GMT -5
OK, I have a hypothesis. It goes like this:
Upon reflection, I see problems with Madthe Swine's theory that the scum intended to give up drainbead from the start of the Day. It's an interesting theory, but it suffers from a fundamental flaw: namely, that it doesn't benefit the scum in any way. Railroading one of their own hurts the scum in two specific ways:
1. One of the scum dies. Not the end of the world, and can be useful under the right circumstances, but still a net loss.
2. The railroading process means that you not only lose the chance to lynch a townie, you lose the chance to do something a lot more useful from the scum perspective: force a role claim. Even a day that ends in a scum lynch can be a hugely successful one from the scum standpoint if you manage to force two or three town power roles to claim. Bandwagoning one of your own right from the start - or even just deciding from the start that one of your own dies today - dramatically reduces the chances that one or more townies will be pushed against the wall and possibly forced to claim.
Further, the ostensible benefit to killing off one of your own, if you're scum, is that it engenders trust from the rest of the town. The problem with doing this on the first Day is that it doesn't work. It's too early to get town cred from a scum lynch. Hell, Mad started the drainbead thing in the first place, then I voted for her, and now he's voting for me. It's too early for the hunt-down-fellow-scum-for-town-cred gambit to work.
So - They didn't plan to kill drainbead from the start. But at some point, they did decide to give her up as doomed, and hopefully get one of their own in position to take partial credit for the lynch.
How to identify this person? Well, several people have remarked in here that at some point, drainbead just seemed to... stop trying. Stop defending herself. Stop posting at all. My theory is this: if the scum agreed at some point to give up on drainbead, and discussed it on their board, then they would have decided that:
(1) drainbead should stop defending herself
and
(2) Scum X should get on the wagon
And they would probably have decided these two things at approximately the same time.
So here's my theory: the scum on the drainbead wagon will probably be found voting somewhere near-ish to the point where she stopped defending herself.
I have not yet gone and investigated who was voting in that area. I'm going to go do that now, consider what I find in light of today's action, and return with a vote. In the meanwhile, any critique of this theory would be most welcome.
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Post by cowgirl on Aug 2, 2007 8:31:03 GMT -5
I acknowledge that I have been inconsistent.
However, I don't think that inconsistency in and of itself is suspicious - not when I do it, and not when others do it. If it appears to be deliberately inconsistent then yes, it is scummy. But in my case I have explained quite clearly the source of my inconsistency: namely, that over time, as you reread things you think differently about them. In fact I think strict consistency - saying one thing and sticking to your story throughout - is a scum tell. Think storyteller in M2, who started a bandwagon to lynch a scum and got "townie" cred the rest of the game. But then in the aftermath he pointed out: how was he supposed to know that that scum was scum?
People without information change their minds all the time, as they toss over in their minds what is happening. To start with one story and stick to it is scummier, to me, than responding to changing information.
The quote function isn't working for me right now so I'll insert these from dnooman the old fashioned way.
Yep, on first impression it was a great post. But on second impression, it looked calculated to create a false case against a townie. I think it's pretty scummy to not post anything until you're quite sure of it, because only scum have reason to do that - i.e. they need to go check with their scummy mates to make sure it's consistent with the plan. I'm working on my own so it's not surprising that I change my mind sometimes.
About the timing: you said it was inconsistent of me to (a) not think it was scummy for her to vote the next day for Malacandra when she didn't vote yesterday, and (b) think it is a bit scummy for Roosh to post when he did (i.e. after a long time of board inactivity, with enough time to start a bandwagon).
It is pretty clear to me that these are two separate cases. It is not at all inconsistent for me to think that someone who has limited time on the boards might post much too late in the day; and at the same time suspect someone who posted something at a most convenient time for the scum.
I think Mal and Roosh are both scummy. I can only vote for one. If I hadn't switched my vote I would have garnered suspicion too (i.e. "why would you chew up Roosh's post and not vote for him?") And I have a more immediate reason to vote Roosh (i.e. a recent post which looked to be deliberately misleading) - my reasons to vote for Mal are left over from yesterday.
Yep, then I unvoted you once you did. Just like I said I would.
which is consistent with my actions yesterday - I thought he was scum and nothing had changed my mind.
Actually, and I know you have no reason to believe me, but I had my big Roosh deconstruction post typed out way before Dotchan replied but real life intervened and I couldn't post it right away. I wanted to read it once more before I posted and so I missed the chance, now I am sorry I didn't post it warts and all because it appears I was on the scum board.
I don't know what else to tell you. It appeared to me that Roosh's post was an attempt to start a bandwagon late in the day. I am still not convinced it's a scum doing that, and not just a series of mistaken arguments, but I'm not completely convinced Mal is scummy either, and I need to vote for someone.
But if my speculation is correct, dnooman's actions are entirely consistent with another scum supporting his mate.
My vote remains where it is.
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Post by cowgirl on Aug 2, 2007 8:43:02 GMT -5
And, upon reflection, dnooman, you haven't addressed the content of my post, i.e. the specific criticisms of what Roosh was saying about dotchan. Do you think that was without merit? or anti-town? Or is your only concern my apparent inconsistency?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 8:51:10 GMT -5
So I'm doing my re-read and I just want to point out something I consider a bit odd. It's unrelated to my current pursuit, so I wanted to put it in a separate post:
Very late in Day One, long after it was too late to matter, pygmy rugger said this:
(bolding mine; color removed)
Someone suggested that pygmy had misread Hal's post, and he replied, in his last post of Day One:
OK. So toDay, pygmy made good on his promise to develop his strongly-felt case against Hal Briston, saying:
Errrr... what?
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Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
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Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 9:18:49 GMT -5
[Out-of-game] #!#$#! Argh! It never bolds! I hate that... (the 2nd paragraph was bolded) It does bold the quote - it's just that with small size text you can't see the bolding. I'm having to run with larger sized text and I can see it quite clearly when I do. [/out-of-game]
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Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 9:25:58 GMT -5
Cowgirl said:
I'm on the fence about Roosh and Dotchan. I think Roosh did a decent job outlining some inconsistencies, but I'm not sold on whether or not he found a scum being scummy. I think the scenario that you present is reaching as it pertains to Roosh trying to frame an innocent townie. That, and the fact that you went from "great post" to voting for him with only a devil's advocate read in between, makes me feel as though you've been discussing things on another board.
I think Roosh found something that he thought was possibly misleading and ran with it. That's what I did. We may both be right, we may both be wrong, only time will tell.
Also, for some reason, whenever you ask to hear more from someone it seems to me like scum trying to gather info. I know that it's a perfectly natural and reasonable thing to do, but when you ask it just gives me a scum vibe. Take that for what it's worth I guess.
You never answered me, what did you mean when you posted this:
I just noticed that Mad the Swine and Cowgirl are both suspecting Roosh and myself, almost trying to lay groundwork it seems, especially because MTS gave no real reason for his HOS towards me.
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Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 9:38:12 GMT -5
Storyteller said
Well, Greedy voted for her 2 hours after she became mute, giving her 5 votes. I voted for her 6.5 hours after her last appearance giving her 6 votes.
I saw Mhaye's vote at the very end to be rather damning, but I don't think we can divine which voters were scum based on that time frame yet. They had the ability to coordinate votes whenever they wanted, something they could easily use to throw us off.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:10:40 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 10:10:40 GMT -5
To play devil's advocate, I read over Roosh's post assuming that he was scum trying to frame a townie. Keeping in mind that I still think Malacandra is scummy, so I am evaluating who is scummier (not looking for "beyond a reasonable doubt"). (snip) Now, please keep in mind I'm not arguing for dotchan's towniness. about that I have no idea. But in my opinion Roosh's case is not made. Some of his points could be equally explained by other factors (e.g. time; newbiness); some I don't understand; and some seem to almost be disingenuous (e.g. taking only one possible interpretation of her posts, even though other interpretations were discussed at the time). Now, I'm not sure that Roosh is scummy, and not just a newbie who made careless mistakes rereading. However, the timing is a bit suspicious (e.g. just right for scum to come up with a strategy and send someone over to post it, just in time to start a bandwagon). My vote is currently with Malacandra and at the moment I think he is more deserving of the benefit of my doubt. Methinks thou dost protest too much. I see I'm not the only one who tripped over your extensive analysis of Rosh's post. There are two points that strike me in particular: 1. You try to convey an image of disinterest in dotchan's scumminess/non-scumminess 2. Even though you spend almost all your post deconstructing Roosh's logic, you end up by voting for Malacandra, who seems to be "deserving of the benefit" (sic) of your doubt Bad form at best, scummy action at worst: vote cowgirl
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:14:25 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 10:14:25 GMT -5
By the way, Idle Thoughts, your last votecount is off at least by one.
cowgirl had her vote on Malacandra by then.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:18:45 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 10:18:45 GMT -5
Uh, Diggit...
Cowgirl unvoted Malacandra and switched her vote to Roosh.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:25:33 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Aug 2, 2007 10:25:33 GMT -5
You never answered me, what did you mean when you posted this: Sorry, my bad. I posted that in early Day 2 (right?) based on my observation that you hadn't said much in Day 1. But that was before I read the latter half of Day 1 when you did say quite a lot. So I retract it and apologize for not having done it sooner.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:25:38 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 10:25:38 GMT -5
Uh, Diggit... Cowgirl unvoted Malacandra and switched her vote to Roosh. Which, of course, means I have to ask you all for forgiveness. My reading comprehension, apparently, sucks. My last two posts therefore amount to nothing (since cowgirl was consistent with the content of her post by unvoting Malacandra and voting Roosh) unvote cowgirl(and I even reread the post twice...)
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:27:27 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Aug 2, 2007 10:27:27 GMT -5
2. Even though you spend almost all your post deconstructing Roosh's logic, you end up by voting for Malacandra, who seems to be "deserving of the benefit" (sic) of your doubt Bad form at best, scummy action at worst. see, damned if I do and damned if I don't. dnooman found it suspicious that I did switch my vote, you found it suspicious that I didn't. I know you were mistaken, I'm just pointing out the bind I was in.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:40:07 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Aug 2, 2007 10:40:07 GMT -5
okay, dnooman's retraction wasn't there when I replied.
That'll teach me to give this half my attention while all this crap is going on around me at work!
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:42:48 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Aug 2, 2007 10:42:48 GMT -5
OK, I have a hypothesis. It goes like this: Upon reflection, I see problems with Madthe Swine's theory that the scum intended to give up drainbead from the start of the Day. It's an interesting theory, but it suffers from a fundamental flaw: namely, that it doesn't benefit the scum in any way. Railroading one of their own hurts the scum in two specific ways: 1. One of the scum dies. Not the end of the world, and can be useful under the right circumstances, but still a net loss. Fair. That's some fairly advanced thinking. Depending on the composition of the scum group, they may not realize that aspect. I actually give more credit for a day one scum lynch, simply because it's fairly unusual to bus someone day one. Bussing later happens all the time, after you have a chance to see who's likely going down anyway. Of course, the ability to talk during the day changes that metric a bit. This does seem like it makes the most sense. Off for a re-read!
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:44:27 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 10:44:27 GMT -5
2. Even though you spend almost all your post deconstructing Roosh's logic, you end up by voting for Malacandra, who seems to be "deserving of the benefit" (sic) of your doubt Bad form at best, scummy action at worst. see, damned if I do and damned if I don't. dnooman found it suspicious that I did switch my vote, you found it suspicious that I didn't. I know you were mistaken, I'm just pointing out the bind I was in. In all fairness, my real problem with your post were your repeated entreaties that you weren't defending dotchan, whilst doing precisely that. That part still stands. The added phantom of a doubt (your supposed vote for Malacandra in that post) simply cemented my suspicion. Without it, I have only that: a suspicious feeling. But I'll probably end up voting for dotchan, since that's the person you were defending.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:49:43 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 2, 2007 10:49:43 GMT -5
Damnit...I hate having one of those days when you don't get to read much. You start to catch up, and something jumps out at you. So you start taking notes, and developing a theory, only to find that in the meantime someone else has already picked up on the same things you did, has posted about it, has already had their post deconstructed and the issues answered. In other words, sorry for all the suspicion I levyed against you, cowgirl, even if dnooman beat me to the punch (in Post #148) and I never actually got to levy that suspicion publicly. By the way, dnooman -- you've got an attempted vote out there against cowgirl, but you never unvoted Mhaye. Stop trying to screw up my spreadsheet, damnit!
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 10:59:53 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Aug 2, 2007 10:59:53 GMT -5
OK, a look at some of the last votes in the day, after she had presumably given up: <snip> Which I might add, thanks to the very enlightning posts by Kat & Nesta, I have changed my mind on.
I'm going to have to throw a vote out there, but I'm torn by what to do. In the grand scheme of things I'm not sure how this will read to everyone but I'm being forced to Vote Drainbead.
I don't have any specific factual, gut instinct or other reasons for doing so, and I apologise to you in advance Drainbead if you are a fellow towny, but I'm doing it to try and avoid being lynched myself.
The phrasing is interesting. It may have been brought up before, but "forced to vote for Drainbead"? Could be an indication of a scum discussion.
Further on the dnooman hoo-hah, I do find it amusing that the people who were voting for him to get him to start posting immediately turn round and start voting for me instead for doing the same. That seems fair.
At the time you placed your vote for dnooman, there were 2 people with 3 votes and dnooman had 2. Two votes do not a lynch make, but when you tossed him into a 3 way tie for leading vote getters, it brought in the very real possibility that he could be piled on and lynched. The intention of my vote was to get his attention. I'm a little suspicious of cowgirl for adding her vote, but very suspicious of you for yours. Neither were really necessary. That being said, I'm not all that pleased with the way people have piled on to you either. I think it is likely that between you (Mal), Greedy Smurf, and DrainBead, there is a scum.
Greedy has voted for DrainBead DrainBead has voted for Mal Mal has no vote yet as he took his off Dnooman. If he votes Greedy, then we get a good old-fashioned Mexican Standoff.
I've tried to work through the if X is scum, then Y can't be because of Z. It's getting me no where, and making my head hurt.
Well, voting for dnooman didn't create a tie, because there already was one. A mere two votes didn't seem to be getting his attention; the third one apparently did, and for this I get attitude? Thanks a bundle.
I guess a vote for DrainBead would look like trying to save my own neck, so I'd better not. So because it's funny, and because I trust one or two other people's instincts, I think I'll make Hockey Monkey's head hurt a little more.
Vote Greedy SmurfI've talked about this post before, but it's even more interesting now in light of storyteller's theory. Was Mal under pressure to pile on Drainbead, but refused because he thought it would look too scummy? Could be! I find drainbead and Malacandra about equally scummy, and so far no one else seems as likely to be scum as one (or both) of them. I find Malacandra’s third vote for dnooman very strange. That’s the single scummiest thing I’ve seen so far this game. I’m not sure what to think of his post about the geniuses going for a genius only win. On one hand, I agree with his point that if they go for their exclusive win that they have an advantage since they can coordinate just like the scum, but the way he phrased this makes it sound like the geniuses playing for a town win isn’t likely, and I think they probably will. As Hal pointed out from his experience of trying for a mason win it almost cost both the masons and the town the game. There isn’t a whole lot to go on with Malacandra, though, other than those two things. They seem scummy to me, but it could just be his not thinking things through, so for now I’ll FOS Malcandra. As for drainbead, many of her posts ping my scumdar. Especially this bit: Jul 27, 2007, 10:38am, drainbead wrote: I have a really bad feeling that all three of our leading vote getters are town--I know my own role, of course, and I'm pretty sure that Greedy Smurf's errors are more the mistakes of newbie town than scum. I'm not sure about dnooman, but only because we've been given very little to go on there. I don't necessarily think Lynch all Lurkers is a good plan this early in the game, but then again, what is? As I re-read her posts I got an uneasy feeling that something wasn’t right. Vote drainbead. This was the only other one that stood out to me, mostly because the reasoning is so vague. Greedy and Mal are the ones that pop out the most for me here. No need to move my vote, then.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 11:01:28 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on Aug 2, 2007 11:01:28 GMT -5
In all fairness, my real problem with your post were your repeated entreaties that you weren't defending dotchan, whilst doing precisely that. I think they're two separate questions. 1. Did the accusor make his case? 2. Is the accused innocent? I have no comment on the second point, because I have no idea. She could be scum or town. My point is that the accusor did NOT make his case, and he has not convinced me that dotchan is scum. This is a really important distinction, because it's common for scum to "use" other posters either by defending them or by attacking them, completely independently of the other poster's role. In other words, if Poster X defends or attacks Poster Y, they have many reasons for doing so above and beyond Poster Y's actual alignment, and so Poster X's words (on their own) should not be sufficient to determine anything about Poster Y's alignment. I'm still not convinced that Roosh's post was a deliberate scummy bandwagon attempt, just that it was consistent with a deliberate scummy bandwagon attempt, and there's nobody who appears scummier to me than he does at this point.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 11:06:59 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 11:06:59 GMT -5
In case this is of interest to anyone (this may be long; fair warning), here's how the latter part of the Passion of the Drainbead went down. The essential facts are in normal text; my comments and analysis are indented. drainbead's penultimate post was on July 27, at 2:50PM. It said this: At that moment there were three votes for her on the Board: storyteller0910 (Me), MadtheSwine, and Roosh. For the record, I think it possible, probably even more likely than not, that one, but only one, of the three voters for drain at this point was scum. As I said before, I don't think the scum would have completely piled on to another scum this early, so it's unlikely to be more than one. But it seems to me that a good place for scum to hide is on a scum wagon that was technically started by a townie (which I know myself to be).
I'm going to talk more about MadtheSwine later, because he's not the focus of this, but as I try to cobble together some idea of what went down yesterday, I'm getting more and more unsettled by some of his behaviors. More in a future post.
For now, on to the facts. After this post by drain, Blaster Master votes for her, putting her more seriously on the hot-seat. She responds with her final post of the Day, AT 4:00pm: The vote count after her post stood: drainbead (4) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master GreedySmurf (3) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera dnooman (2) - cowgirl, Malacandra Malacandra (2) - hockeymonkey, drainbead Mhaye (1) - kat drainbead has not yet given up her own defense at the moment of this post. Some puzzling questions: why vote for Malacandra and not Greedy Smurf? The latter vote would have put her in a tie; the former barely registers an impact. I can think of three possible explanations:
(1) she figured a "save my own hide" vote for Greedy would look wonky. (2) Greedy is scum, and she didn't want to save her own hide at the expense of his. This seems to be the reasoning of a lot of the folks voting Greedy, but I think it doesn't hold up. The scum are talking on their own board. I can't imagine that if Greedy is scum, they would have told her to avoid him so obviously. If she avoids Greedy on purpose, and survives the Day (which she is still trying to do; she hasn't given up her defense yet), and then we lynch Greedy and he's scum, we're coming right back to her. Better to vote FOR Greedy if he's scum; that way, if you do succeed in swinging the vote his, you've lost a fellow scum but shored up your own position, at least a little. Whichs brings me to possibility (3) Malacandra IS scum. Putting her vote on him in such a case creates two possibilities: she dies, and he looks a little townier as a result, or she succeeds in swinging the vote, and HE looks a little townier as a result.
Number three is interesting. Of course, it relies on Malacandra being scum. More later. Let's get back to the plot:
A very odd sequence now follows, with a perfectly choreographed alternation of votes (showing only votes for one of these two at this point): cowgirl votes Mal (4:41) Greedy Smurf votes Drainbead (5:55) mhaye votes Mal (10:22) dnooman votes Drainbead (10:31) capybara votes Mal (11:54) Then pygmy rolls in with a non sequitor vote for Hal Briston (see above). Along the line, Kat and Mal himself lay votes on Greedy. We're at 6-5-5. Silence for a while. Then, nesta and mhaye apply the coup de grace. Something is weird here. I actually don't think the scum were specifically giving up on drainbead, as I did when I began this analysis. Look at that sequence of votes; doesn't the strict alteration - Mal, Drain, Mal, Drain, Mal, Drain - seem... maufactured, somehow? Like the scum weren't so much trying to get Drain killed as to make sure that her wagon and Malacandra's stayed neck-and-neck? In other words, to specifically and intentionally not manipulate the outcome - to let the townies make the decisions and use their own votes to keep the numbers close? Such that if we caught drainbead, we wouldn't be able to identify any scum that had definitively caused or tried to avert that outcome, because no scum did?
Does this make sense to anyone, or am I on Pluto? If I'm even close to right, it's a clever plan, because even if we identify the existence of the plan it still gives us relatively little evidence.
No vote yet.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 11:07:04 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 11:07:04 GMT -5
Sorry Hal.
I thought I was correcting Diggit, not making a retraction. Was there something I posted that was not factual?
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 11:37:32 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 2, 2007 11:37:32 GMT -5
Sorry Hal. I thought I was correcting Diggit, not making a retraction. Was there something I posted that was not factual? In Post #10 you voted for Mhaye. In Post #152 you voted for cowgirl, but there was no Mhaye unvote in between that I can find. And whoops...sorry if my last post came across a little bit jerkish -- forgot the smiley at the end.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 12:02:16 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 12:02:16 GMT -5
In all fairness, my real problem with your post were your repeated entreaties that you weren't defending dotchan, whilst doing precisely that. I think they're two separate questions. 1. Did the accusor make his case? 2. Is the accused innocent? (snip) Sorry if I insist on this point, but, like I said before "Methinks thou dost protest too much". I wouldn't even have blinked, had you kept your post to your line by line analysis of Roosh's post. But you also repeated your non-defense for dotchan. And that still gives me pause.
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 12:04:38 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 2, 2007 12:04:38 GMT -5
This confused player would like to request an official vote count from Idle Thoughts. In between everybody and their brother posting their own vote counts (Bad form, all! Very bad form! My pointy accusatory finger jabs at thee! ) and quoting other people's votes without bleaching the vote/unvote action, it's rather difficult to see what's going on. And man, I must have some sort of talent for saying the wrong thing, because I can't seem to get my innocence across in a convincing fashion. I guess I'm coming across as inconsistent because I have a tendancy to second-guess myself a lot.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 12:15:24 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 2, 2007 12:15:24 GMT -5
I think dotchan is just what she claims, confused.
*grumbles* off for a reread.
Unvote dotchan
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RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 12:39:53 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Aug 2, 2007 12:39:53 GMT -5
:sigh: I really want to believe I have scum pegged here Dotchan.... =( Are you really that new? Couldn't you be really clever scum? (Though i must say i do agree w/ Dnooman on the Cowgirl issue. When I quickly picked up 2 votes last night and Malacandra lost two votes really quickly it did strike a chord with me. But my arms are killing me today, and I'm not really up for posting much, so I'm glad you took the time to analyze the situation. And If i die, at least you'll have plenty of Info to work with. Though yeah, Dotchan is freaking me out with her niceness. I want to believe she's scum. But Cowgirl? She's not new, and her jumping to me is just like ( ). Scum knows I'm townie. And so me going is a perfectly fine option for them. So if i go, I go. But i go as a townie with alot of info to dissect at least. (And Storyteller in the post where you said you think one of the first 3 votes for drain was scum, I agree with that. But I think it was YOU who was the scum there. Because i know I'm town, and I don't see why Mad would be the damning 3rd vote. I think you might have been a scum just throwing a vote at a Scum, but didn't realize how it got stuck to him with others jumping on, and so you had to stay with your vote). That's just my opinion. So here's my list of suspects (The dreaded FoS list:) 1. Cowgirl. (Man, you get around it seems to me) 2. Dotchan (Inconsistent or really that new? And stop with all the Wine!) 3. JSexton (...:shrug: He's the original suspect for me It's kinda lessened). 4. Malacandra (yes, his day one actions were odd). 5. Storyteller (My feelings about you. I like you. But I think you're scum. Sorry. Because I know i'm Town. And you're really helpful. I don't wanna say it... but TOO helpful?) =( Or maybe the town has just been led astray, and the scum has been waiting until this last 24 hours to do ANYTHING even. It could have been just a bunch of townies and Geniuses dicking around. Pairs that wierd me out: Cowgirl-Dotchan Storyteller-JSexton. And is nestea a lurker? Anyways that's my helpful end post for now. I might check back in, in the evening to see what's what. Peace.Love.Happiness. ~R
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 12:59:24 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 12:59:24 GMT -5
So here's my list of suspects (The dreaded FoS list:) 1. Cowgirl. (Man, you get around it seems to me) 2. Dotchan (Inconsistent or really that new? And stop with all the Wine!) 3. JSexton (...:shrug: He's the original suspect for me It's kinda lessened). 4. Malacandra (yes, his day one actions were odd). 5. Storyteller (My feelings about you. I like you. But I think you're scum. Sorry. Because I know i'm Town. And you're really helpful. I don't wanna say it... but TOO helpful?) This is an interesting list, Roosh. For cowgirl, dotchan, and malacandra, you seem to have explicit reasons for thinking them scum. For me, and also JSexton, you seem to... well, not. Would you mind stating for the record your reasons for suspecting the two of us as you have for the other three? As well as your reasons for pairing us together as you did in this post? Very regrettably, this is possible. I really doubt the entire scum brigade has been silent all Day, but a few of them are going to stay above the fray no matter who is involved in it; this is a point well worth remembering on Day 6 when half the town is at the throat of the other half.
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