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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 13:01:12 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 2, 2007 13:01:12 GMT -5
EIGHT hours to go before Day ends no matter what.
dotchan (2) - Roosh, Malacandra Roosh (2) - dotchan, cowgirl Malacandra (1) - JSexton Storyteller0910 (1) - Mad the Swine DiggitCamera (1) - GreedySmurf cowgirl (1) - dnooman
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 13:07:55 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 13:07:55 GMT -5
I've been re-reading the votes at the close of yesterDay (via Hal's spreadsheet) and storyteller's analysis thereof and it doesn't really seem that the scum orchestrated a truly complex action.
It would seem that their main intent would have been on trying to save drainbead via Malacandra, and if that's right, my eye is drawn to cowgirl's vote-switch from dnooman to Malacandra.
1. dnooman was mentioned often in those strange last posts from drainbead 2. Her vote switch was one of those votes that kept the race close
vote cowgirl (this time for real)
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 13:12:33 GMT -5
Post by JSexton on Aug 2, 2007 13:12:33 GMT -5
Roosh, you're awfully medium sized lately. I'm not sure if that means anything yet.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 13:14:02 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 13:14:02 GMT -5
This is killing me, this Day. I cannot separate out a best candidate, and I've re-read Day One and Day Two so far at least three times since noon.
Time for an info dump. Coming up shortly.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 13:43:50 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 2, 2007 13:43:50 GMT -5
dotchan (2) - Roosh, Malacandra Roosh (2) - dotchan, cowgirl cowgirl (1) - dnooman, diggitcamara Malacandra (1) - JSexton Storyteller0910 (1) - Mad the Swine diggitcamara (1) - GreedySmurf
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 13:58:42 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 13:58:42 GMT -5
InfoDump, part the first Blaster Master: Having just written a sentence about certain scum rising above the fray and keeping quiet while the townies whack at one another with sticks, I started this analysis and noticed that BM hasn’t posted at all since 6:18 PM - on Tuesday evening. Considering that he is our most prolific non-mod poster - outdistancing everyone but Roosh by a considerable margin - this is curious. In his last post, he defended me, which was nice at the time, but why, really, did he defend me? He essentially described Mad’s theories about me as unlikely. He said he’d move me from “probably town” to “ ”. Why was I “probably town” in the first place? Because I started the drainbead lynch wagon? BM knows better than to let that sway him. The majority of his posts have been general strategy - he’s done relatively little actual accusing of anyone. YesterDay he settled on drainbead, sat back, and has essentially vanished since then. On the other hand, his post was the fourth vote on drainbead, and the one that really started her slide downhill to the noose. But where has he been toDay? Hal Briston: Not a huge amount of participation so far. Followed JSexton’s early lead onto the GreedySmurf wagon and that’s about it. I have no read on him right now, and am content to let it be at that until later. Malacandra: I really want to believe that he is scum, because it would make interpreting the results of Day One much simpler. But suspicion of him seems to rest primarily on his vote for dnooman, which just doesn’t seem scummy to me, and to a lesser extent on matters outside of his posting: hockeymonkey’s stated suspicion of him, the fact that his was one of the bandwagon’s competing against drainbead. I’m just not seeing it, not yet. MadtheSwine: MadtheSwine is the hardest player in the game to read. As town and as scum, he tends to come up with wild conspiracy theories, twist facts to suit them, and bulldog one player until he brings them down. Here is the post he made accusing me of evil-doings: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=asylumlane&action=display&thread=1185818180&page=4#1185915659Observations: 1. He is using the fact that I agreed with him as a scum tell. Let me say that again: he is claiming that someone who agrees with him is more likely to be scum because of it. This suggests disingenuousness to me, because if he’s actually town, someone agreeing with him should be what he wants - should be the whole point of making a post in the first place. 2. He makes a reference to “several tells” in the exchanges between me and drainbead, but declines to actually name any of them. He also recommends to his readers that they go look for these “tells” themselves. Convenient, because if some townie finds something he can always say, ah ha!, that’s what I meant. And if no one does the work, well, at least he’s planted the seed. 3. He uses the always-fascinating, “they didn’t kill him, so he must be scum” tactic. 4. He describes a perfectly innocuous night post as “out of character,” and refuses to elaborate. 5. He says that my vote for Roosh is a scum tell, but when asked why, again, refuses to elaborate. So here’s the deal. I’ve analyzed four players so far, but I have a document that needs to be out the door by 5:00 and don’t know if I’ll get back to this before then. Of the four I’ve examined, I guess the one I think is most likely to be scum is Mad. So: vote MadtheSwineI realize that this may read as a retalitory vote, but that's as will be.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 14:35:45 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 2, 2007 14:35:45 GMT -5
This is killing me, this Day. I cannot separate out a best candidate, and I've re-read Day One and Day Two so far at least three times since noon. Tell me about it. It seems like this was so much easier the first time or two playing. Sure, I was wrong on almost every hunch, but at least I had hunches. Now it seems that I read every post -- first assuming the player is town, and then assuming the player is scum -- and I see both sides carrying weight. I don't know if players are getting better, or I'm just getting more indecisive.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 15:00:21 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Aug 2, 2007 15:00:21 GMT -5
A very odd sequence now follows, with a perfectly choreographed alternation of votes (showing only votes for one of these two at this point): . . . Something is weird here. I actually don't think the scum were specifically giving up on drainbead, as I did when I began this analysis. Look at that sequence of votes; doesn't the strict alteration - Mal, Drain, Mal, Drain, Mal, Drain - seem... maufactured, somehow? This scenario requires, like, 5-10 scum in all (with your idea that there were already scum). Interesting pattern, but Occam cringes. Also, "perfectly choreographed alternation of votes (showing only votes for one of these two at this point)":-- isn't that a bit of an adjustment? i.e, all of the data . . . except the data that doesn't fit the pattern. I'm not seeing the Cowgirl evidence as really compelling, so I need to have another look at a couple of other posters before I vote (yes, I know I keep saying this-- work interferes with deep thought)
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 15:10:25 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 2, 2007 15:10:25 GMT -5
This scenario requires, like, 5-10 scum in all (with your idea that there were already scum). Interesting pattern, but Occam cringes. No. All it requires is one or two, responding to townie votes. Someone votes Mal - find a reason to vote drain, just to keep it balanced. Someone votes drain - find a reason to vote Mal. Obviously it is a bit of an adjustment, but it would hardly be a hidden pattern if it were obvious. I still find it odd that the vote queue for those two particular players filled up so perfectly in parallel, that neither was ever allowed to get a lead in the voting. Nonetheless, it seems no one else is with me, and ultimately, and as I said, even if I'm right it still doesn't tell us very much about who is actually scum.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 15:17:43 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 15:17:43 GMT -5
Here goes nothing - because, quite frankly, it feels like that's what I've got. At the dawn of Today, I was most suspicious of Malacandra for his unnecessary vote on dnooman. My suspicion was reduced by a bit of analysis dnooman posted, and by Mal's post when he chose not to vote to save his neck. The effect of the latter post was somewhat reduced when I was rereading through the last posts of Day 1, when I noted that Kat voted GreedySmurf precisely because he'd voted to save his own neck. I also remembered that Mal was the GO for the game when HockeyMonkey, involved in a close neck-race with me, chose to not place her vote on me and save herself. So he'd seen it done before and knew it would go down well with at least one of his accusers. Then there were one or two odd posts from people.The player that sticks out in my mind is JSexton. In 2.167, he responds to a point Storyteller made as follows; 2. The railroading process means that you not only lose the chance to lynch a townie, you lose the chance to do something a lot more useful from the scum perspective: force a role claim. Even a day that ends in a scum lynch can be a hugely successful one from the scum standpoint if you manage to force two or three town power roles to claim. Bandwagoning one of your own right from the start - or even just deciding from the start that one of your own dies today - dramatically reduces the chances that one or more townies will be pushed against the wall and possibly forced to claim. That's some fairly advanced thinking. Depending on the composition of the scum group, they may not realize that aspect. It's probably a mistake to assume that the Psychos cannot work that out. It's highly unlikely that they are all inexperienced, and with the ability to communicate all the time, it's easy to spread the idea around. I'd also like to ask PygmyRugger (again) what statements of mine he found contradictory. Other than that, I got nothing. I'll stew a bit more and vote soon - say about an hour. On BlaM : He posted in M5 apologising for being busy yesterday. If he didn't keep up with his game it's not surprising that he didn't keep up with this game. Let's cut him some slack.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 15:28:56 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 15:28:56 GMT -5
Dotchan, Roosh, and Cowgirl are the top three vote getters, and were all involved in todays little tussle, yet there isn't nearly as much discussion going on about that as one might think. I think this might result in some sort of vote jumping party before the deadline, which is almost never good for town.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 16:21:50 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on Aug 2, 2007 16:21:50 GMT -5
From my point of view this is "just before the deadline", 'cos there's no way I can stay up until 3am my time to see the Sunset. So I'm going to have to bite the bullet now. I've just been reading through the last page or so of posts and the more I look at it, the less I'm convinced that I've got the right one out of the dotchan/cowgirl pairing. No offence to dotchan's smarts, but I think if it's got to be that one of them's the clever scum and the other's the dupe, I'm inclining more towards cowgirl for the former.
The chief drawback is that they could both be whiter than white.
But at least if I get off the fence now, the town has upwards of four hours to decide that I'm swinging it the wrong way, which is a lot better than leaving it until half an hour to the close.
Unvote dotchan Vote cowgirl
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 16:31:19 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 2, 2007 16:31:19 GMT -5
<snip> I'd also like to ask PygmyRugger (again) what statements of mine he found contradictory.<snip> As I said, that post was merely an info dump on my part. It was totally off the cuff, and purely from memory. Maybe you said something that made me go, "Huh?" during my reread. It was not an FoS, it was simply me thinking out loud.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 16:38:40 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 16:38:40 GMT -5
<snip> I'd also like to ask PygmyRugger (again) what statements of mine he found contradictory.<snip> As I said, that post was merely an info dump on my part. It was totally off the cuff, and purely from memory. Maybe you said something that made me go, "Huh?" during my reread. It was not an FoS, it was simply me thinking out loud. I didn't suggest it was a FoS - a term I don't use, you might note. All I asked - twice Today - was that you tell me what statements I made that you found contradictory, so that I might clarify my meanings and/or withdraw one of the statements. You failed to do so. You admit you had nothing specific in mind when you posted that. So why say it? The only effect it has is to "smudge" me in people's minds. (I seem to be doing that quite well without help thankyouverymuch). Now we're clear that you have no grounds for the statement. I assume it is withdrawn. Thank you
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 16:57:25 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 2, 2007 16:57:25 GMT -5
Ok, I want to vote for JSexton, but that will do no good, and it's not Day 1 anymore, so I can't justify a stray vote.
I'm torn between Roosh and dotchan. As per usual, I'm not sure if it's one scum, two scum, or no scum on that pair. I lump them together because of Roosh's very detailed analysis, if you were wondering.
I'm not seeing the cowgirl thing.
I'm going to have to vote Roosh, in part because such a detailed analysis that convinces people so quickly, frankly, scares me.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:00:57 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Aug 2, 2007 17:00:57 GMT -5
Ok, I'm going to go over the DrainBead pool myself to get things in my head. Play along at home. . .
I've just done a thorough reread and recap of the voting, but don't think I should make a post that very very long. Instead some thoughts.
Ok, so Drain's last post is at Reply #287 on Jul 27, 2007, 12:00pm-- no defense of herself made. At that time, if I'm correct, the votes were at 4-3-2-2-1. That's hardly a place to give up the ghost. She makes no post for the last 12 hours and there is little vote movement.
Is that crazy or is it just me? The only two votes within 6 hours of that are Greedy and Cowgirl, and then MHaye's initial vote for Mal. If there was a decision to give up Drain. . . is it possible that some of the scum were asleep or busy from, oh, whenever onwards and weren't around to do any last minute tinkering? On the scum board perhaps was there a lone voice going 'guys? guys?' Is it possible that scum votes were already used up and couldn't help?
In other words, the idea that there was a moment when they gave up and that the votes around that moment mean something (whose idea was that?) is problematic. I think something subtle must have been working-- they were being careful but at the end couldn't save her. There were some late votes and movement to the other contenders (my vote included, admittedly)-- was there some walking on eggshells involved?
I thought this analysis would help me find something good. Of the early votes-- before the Drain wagon got dangerous-- I find the weakest to be Mad the Swine's. Storyteller's initial vote was well reasoned, relatively, and then he doesn't budge and back it up further a bit on.
I don't know what to make of the late votes-- I want to be suspicious of MHaye for the lateish vote for Mal and then the switch to Drain, but I realize I made a very similar vote for Mal because, you know, I thought he was scum.
I see Diggit's point about Cowgirls's vote, but there were several moments like that that I saw, and hers doesn't stand out to me in particular.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:03:37 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 2, 2007 17:03:37 GMT -5
Ok, here's my info dump post. It mostly concerns activity on Day One. <snip> I took a bunch of notes last night, but left them at home, so this is all off the top of my head. Feel free to point out anything that's incorrect, and I'll change my mental note. It looks like you corrected something that may have been incorrect, but you sure are awfully defensive about it. I'm quite sure several of the other entries were a bit off, but you didn't defend or confirm a single one of them. Now, my original post may have been in error. However, your reaction to it strikes me similar to a kid caught stealing a candy bar. One with nothing to hide will empty his pockets. The one who stole the bar will get defensive, hostile, and provoke a response. Is that what's happening here?
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:07:23 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Aug 2, 2007 17:07:23 GMT -5
Pygmy, multiple personality disorder? Who is that a quote of?
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:20:04 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Aug 2, 2007 17:20:04 GMT -5
I'm going to have to vote Roosh, in part because such a detailed analysis that convinces people so quickly, frankly, scares me. You realize that on the face of it, that sounds a little flimsy? If it were crap analysis that convinced people would you be onboard? Perhaps people are convinced because the reasoning is compellingly reasonable? This seems like a purely contrarian tie-up manouver. Ok, to rethink Drain's demise. . . again, why no roleclaim (excluding for a moment Swine's elaborate Gnomes of Zurich theory)? Does scum usually roleclaim a mason role or one of the independents? Is there perhaps a perception that with the geniuses day-chatting that a roleclaim would for some reason be more likely to wind up badly?
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:22:28 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 17:22:28 GMT -5
It looks like you corrected something that may have been incorrect, but you sure are awfully defensive about it. I'm quite sure several of the other entries were a bit off, but you didn't defend or confirm a single one of them. Now, my original post may have been in error. However, your reaction to it strikes me similar to a kid caught stealing a candy bar. One with nothing to hide will empty his pockets. The one who stole the bar will get defensive, hostile, and provoke a response. Is that what's happening here? No, it's more like my dislike at having to repeat myself. You posted three times after my first request, and ignored it each time, before I asked again and you responded. I had no idea what was on your mind, so I couldn't give an answer.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:33:16 GMT -5
Post by dnooman on Aug 2, 2007 17:33:16 GMT -5
pygmyrugger
So, tying things up sounds like the best move to you? And your reasoning is that his detailed analysis convinced people quickly? What? Isn't that what detailed analysies are supposed to do? If Roosh were scum, you're implying that he's attacking Dotchan a townie right? Yet, you are torn between Roosh and dotchan as being scum? And you don't see anything scummy about Cowgirl's posting history?
Really? Really?
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:35:16 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 17:35:16 GMT -5
I'm going to have to vote Roosh, in part because such a detailed analysis that convinces people so quickly, frankly, scares me. You realize that on the face of it, that sounds a little flimsy? If it were crap analysis that convinced people would you be onboard? Perhaps people are convinced because the reasoning is compellingly reasonable? This seems like a purely contrarian tie-up manouver. Ok, to rethink Drain's demise. . . again, why no roleclaim (excluding for a moment Swine's elaborate Gnomes of Zurich theory)? Does scum usually roleclaim a mason role or one of the independents? Is there perhaps a perception that with the geniuses day-chatting that a roleclaim would for some reason be more likely to wind up badly? (Bleach applied) Well, a Mason claim is rarely likely to end well for the scum. One real Mason roleclaim and the town is likely to lynch a claimant, then if they don't hit scum the other. Trading 1-for-1 is not worth it unless the scum sacrifice hits a priority target. I think you may have something in saying that Mason claims are less likely to work in this game. The only other plausible claims are one of the two Doctors. Claiming Therapist would have been a bit of a disaster (as it turned out) - but even with the Therapist remaining alive it's a high risk claim. The one that might have worked is Dr. Johnson. After the claimant will never claim to have protected the dead player (and if the player does survive then the claimant says he did protect them).
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:52:36 GMT -5
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 2, 2007 17:52:36 GMT -5
(snip) Ok, to rethink Drain's demise. . . again, why no roleclaim (excluding for a moment Swine's elaborate Gnomes of Zurich theory)? (snip) The underlined part made me laugh. And I don't even know what you're talking about... ;D
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 17:56:34 GMT -5
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 2, 2007 17:56:34 GMT -5
Crap, crap, crappity crap...if there's one thing I hate, it's when those damn customers get in the way of my Mafia time.
But, even though they took up all the time I wanted to use to come up with a final voting pick, I can't lynch them. So I'm going to have to ride with my gut on this one. I'm nowhere near 100% convinced of her guilt, but the posting history is the biggest flag I'm seeing right now.
Vote cowgirl.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 18:03:19 GMT -5
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 2, 2007 18:03:19 GMT -5
Man, if the rest of the Days are going to play out like this, I might go insane in real life. (If X is scum, then Y...or Z...argh! )
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 18:03:37 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 2, 2007 18:03:37 GMT -5
Dnooman wrote:
Please call me Mad.
I did give reasons for the HOS against you,just not in the post where I formally HOS'ed you. To recap,I still think the drain kill was scum driven. You voted for drain.Coupled with drain's mentioning of you several times in a good light near her end gives me rise for concern.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 18:15:13 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 2, 2007 18:15:13 GMT -5
I'm going to have to vote. Nightfall is 3 hours away. I'm quoting dnoomans post, which fortuitously quotes the other statement I want to focus on. pygmyruggerSo, tying things up sounds like the best move to you? And your reasoning is that his detailed analysis convinced people quickly? What? Isn't that what detailed analyses are supposed to do? If Roosh were scum, you're implying that he's attacking Dotchan a townie right? Yet, you are torn between Roosh and dotchan as being scum? And you don't see anything scummy about Cowgirl's posting history? Really? Really? Firstly, PygmyRugger says he "wants to vote for JSexton." Then why doesn't he? At the time that post was made, the leader had only three votes. A good case against someone PR is genuinely suspicious of might have found enough votes to make him swing. But instead he decides to influence the vote leaders, and ties the race between cowgirl and Roosh at three votes each. Vote for who you really think is Psycho - especially when the vote is as tight as this. Not content with that, PR votes for someone he believes is "persuasive." Now if he's really not seeing the case against Cowgirl he should vote someone else. But voting to tie the neckrace up with someone else on the grounds he chose is downright weird. At that point there were several people carrying votes; surely a better case could be made against one of those than "he's persuasive." Vote PygmyRugger
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 18:22:50 GMT -5
Post by capybara on Aug 2, 2007 18:22:50 GMT -5
Ok, time to commit. I'm not pulled in any direction by the whole cowgirl/Roosh/Dotchan business--none of it seems very strong. I can *almost* see the Cowgirl thing, but in my big reading of the Day 1 roll, what she did was not significantly enough out of whack with other players, so I'm withholding judgment.
Instead I think Storyteller is onto something. Mad has seemed more insane than usual--that's in relative terms. He has been posting very erratically-- not just in terms of regularity but the posts themselves are pretty wacky. Only a few posts of real substance, and one or two were of the Rosicrucian-Schwa-aliens theory variety-- some very strange bits of logic or simulacra of logiciness.
He's a bit vaguer and more evasive and nuttier and I fear it's on purpose, to give a zany Autolycus-like cover-- I don't think it's intentional, but it reminds me of a scary thought I had earlier, about what Auto would sound like if he were in this game playing up the psycho theme, like he had done with the mafia and pirate themes. Mad's sounding like what I imagined in my head.
I think he's smart enough to do some meta-self-fashioning.
Additionally, I do agree with him on one point-- that the Drain wagon was at least in part scum driven. Of the early votes for Drain in the unthreatening hours one stood out as particularly light on substance.
Vote Mad the Swine
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 18:37:17 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 2, 2007 18:37:17 GMT -5
Whew, let's see if I can take these one at a time. Pygmy, multiple personality disorder? Who is that a quote of? It's a quote of me, pointing out my original quote in question to MHaye<snip> I had no idea what was on your mind, so I couldn't give an answer. I never asked for an answer.
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Day Two
Aug 2, 2007 18:42:16 GMT -5
Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 2, 2007 18:42:16 GMT -5
InfoDump, part the first MadtheSwine: MadtheSwine is the hardest player in the game to read. As town and as scum, he tends to come up with wild conspiracy theories, twist facts to suit them, and bulldog one player until he brings them down. It is what I want,but you of all people, would be the last one I expect to agree with me.Which when you made the post to agree with me, you even stated that you clicked on reply to not agree with it,but decided it was a good point. To me it seemed to fit with my wild conspiracy theory. It was more just the conversations between the two of you on the whole that stuck with me. You accused... drain made what I felt where not very good defenses...like they were planned maybe? It is fascinating,perhaps it was discussed, if you aren't scum,they felt you may have been protected. From our limited playing time together it just didn't seem to me like it was something you would normally say. Pointing out how you found a scum and all. I know it's after the fact and all but I fully expected you to vote for Roosh and unvote him later,not that far of a stretch but still fits my wild conspiracy theory. I don't see how you can feel that I am the most likely to be scum.I don't believe you fully believe that,especially as you stated above that I am the hardest player in the game to read.So yes,it does seem retalitory and not all that well thought out...if you are town. But I can see that a vote for you is wasted this Day and I want to get an inkling on my wild conspiracy theory. I will unvote storyteller and vote for someone also very high on my list, Roosh
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