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Post by capybara on Aug 9, 2007 9:53:49 GMT -5
Story, I think it makes sense at least to some degree. What do you feel are the implications?
My thoughts on this: It is possible that the two big vote-collectors Day 2 are both town (well, one for certain, and I don't think that implies that the other is scum). Also possible that the wagons started out town and the scum are opportunistic and jumped on midway.
As far as exactly where the scum distributed themselves (I think 'distributed' might be a good theme for how I suspect they might behave, especially since they can chat), the field was so dispersed (this might suggest further that Roosh is clean) that it complicates drawing any real conclusions, unless we try to follow up on cockamamie theories (like I think many of us are, today. Cockamamie theories can be useful.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 9, 2007 10:00:23 GMT -5
Hello, again - I am working on a substantive post, but first I want to float a theory. It concerns Day 2 voting. Ordinarily, I assume that scum will make no particularly urgent effort to keep other scum off the lynching block, or to push a townie lynch, in order to avoid drawing attention to themselves. I think other players have been making the same assumption, yes? Here's the thing: I'm not sure this would apply to Day 2. Having lost one scum on Day 1, I think the bad guys might have been ever so slightly more inclined than usual to push hard for a townie lynch during the Day - losing two of their own very early in the game would have hurt their chances pretty badly. They might do this, counting on the assumption described above to protect them - they can push a little harder for a townie lynch, trusting that they won't fall under suspicion for it because we're assuming scum won't do such a thing. Does this reasoning make any sense? I've never really been behind that idea. I've always thought that yes, if scum were entirely logical, it would be that way. The problem is, they aren't (usually). At the end of M4, for instance, Blaster Master explicitly told his new recruit ( nesta) he shouldn't try defending him. Nevertheless nesta looked, ever so slightly, in his direction. And gave himself away. The same thing happened to Lemur866 in the same game. In other words, even in game theory it would benefit themselves, "blood will tell"... And Day 2, with a scum lynch on the Day before, might very well have been a Day were pressure got to them.
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 9, 2007 10:23:45 GMT -5
Hello, again - I am working on a substantive post, but first I want to float a theory. It concerns Day 2 voting. Ordinarily, I assume that scum will make no particularly urgent effort to keep other scum off the lynching block, or to push a townie lynch, in order to avoid drawing attention to themselves. I think other players have been making the same assumption, yes? Here's the thing: I'm not sure this would apply to Day 2. Having lost one scum on Day 1, I think the bad guys might have been ever so slightly more inclined than usual to push hard for a townie lynch during the Day - losing two of their own very early in the game would have hurt their chances pretty badly. They might do this, counting on the assumption described above to protect them - they can push a little harder for a townie lynch, trusting that they won't fall under suspicion for it because we're assuming scum won't do such a thing. Does this reasoning make any sense? I see what you're saying, but aren't you heading into WIFOM territory as soon as you start saying "now this would be dumb, but they know we know it would be dumb, so they might do it anyway because we would be dumb enough to think they would not be dumb enough to do it"? Paradoxically, balanced against the scum being under pressure from the early loss, don't they have the compensating advantage that it's correspondingly harder to find the remaining scum, because there are few of them to be hit by chance and there's less evidence from a Day One lynching when most people will presumably have been obliged to pick more or less randomly? And have I used up my quota of question-marks yet?
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Post by Hal Briston on Aug 9, 2007 10:24:11 GMT -5
OoooOOOOoooOOOoooo!!
Sorry to haunt like this. Just popped in to make a post, that way there's a recent link to the voting spreadsheet in my sig available. Carry on...
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 9, 2007 11:24:45 GMT -5
To follow up on my previous post, the only one of the current vote leader who fits the bill (and of whom I am even slightly suspicious) would be JSexton. So, I'll vote JSexton
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 9, 2007 12:10:37 GMT -5
Whoops...accidentally posted this in D1 ...sorry. I said I was gonna take a closer look at Greedy today,so here it is. When I decided to do it,I thought he had made a post that he didn't make, but as I was reading, one thing did raise a flag that hadn't been mentioned yet,but I am curious if he keeps doing it or not,so I won't share... unless a lot of you really want to know and think I should spill it. Other than that I ain't got a whole lot on him,but he aint posted much either.Not enough to justify a vote yet anyhow. I do agree that Jsexton is certainly being way more cautious than in M1 and doesn't seem like the same player I played with back then. Now,I am gonna go find that post I thought Greedy made and find out who it is.
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 9, 2007 12:29:27 GMT -5
I do agree that Jsexton is certainly being way more cautious than in M1 and doesn't seem like the same player I played with back then. Well, fair's fair (and this habit of mine of speaking up for people who are trying to get me killed will be the finish of me one of these days), you'd expect him to have learned a bit since then and maybe decide that his playing style needed to be modified. I still haven't decided whether JSexton is scum or just plain wrong about me... guess I need to get off that fence some time soon, but a mere change in playing style since when, April?, isn't enough evidence to me.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 9, 2007 14:24:19 GMT -5
Story, I think it makes sense at least to some degree. What do you feel are the implications? Well, I think I think that we are in big trouble, at least toDay. I just went back and looked at the sequence of events leading up to the cowgirl lynch, and I couldn't find a thing. ToDay is a particularly bad situation, because we don't even have a real vote leader - right now we're a few hours from lynching JSexton because, evidently, he's not playing the same was as he did in previous games, which is a little meta for my taste and doesn't even really seem true. But a late swing could happen so late that the ultimate victim doesn't even get a chance to role claim - which, I need hardly say, is potentially disastrous. Right now I am a bit suspicious of pygmy rugger. I refer you to this post: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=asylumlane&action=display&thread=1185818180#1186062670In which I explain why. All of this went down some time ago, and I've asked pygmy for an explanation several times; none has been forthcoming. But it's barely enough to register on the scum-dar right now. I just.. have nothing. Crap.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 9, 2007 14:33:22 GMT -5
Hello, again - I am working on a substantive post, but first I want to float a theory. It concerns Day 2 voting. Ordinarily, I assume that scum will make no particularly urgent effort to keep other scum off the lynching block, or to push a townie lynch, in order to avoid drawing attention to themselves. I think other players have been making the same assumption, yes? Here's the thing: I'm not sure this would apply to Day 2. Having lost one scum on Day 1, I think the bad guys might have been ever so slightly more inclined than usual to push hard for a townie lynch during the Day - losing two of their own very early in the game would have hurt their chances pretty badly. They might do this, counting on the assumption described above to protect them - they can push a little harder for a townie lynch, trusting that they won't fall under suspicion for it because we're assuming scum won't do such a thing. Does this reasoning make any sense? I see what you're saying, but aren't you heading into WIFOM territory as soon as you start saying "now this would be dumb, but they know we know it would be dumb, so they might do it anyway because we would be dumb enough to think they would not be dumb enough to do it"? This is my favorite sentence ever.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 9, 2007 14:48:02 GMT -5
Storyteller your link doesn't take me to the post you think. The only one of yours on the first page of Da 2 is a vote for Roosh.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 9, 2007 15:04:30 GMT -5
Storyteller your link doesn't take me to the post you think. The only one of yours on the first page of Da 2 is a vote for Roosh. Crap. Day 2, page 6, post #7 on that page. I am utterly incapable of coding a post, apparently.
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Post by capybara on Aug 9, 2007 15:12:30 GMT -5
Ok, I'm starting to feel uneasy about this JSexton wagon, and I'm also as suspicious of Mal as I've ever been (moreso) and I feel that my reasons for suspecting Mad are a bit Meta for the end of the day and a vote although Blaster has good points. . . I need to think. The voting records of Days 1 and 2 are making me think.
Meanwhile, Unvote Mad the Swine
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 9, 2007 16:24:46 GMT -5
I do agree that Jsexton is certainly being way more cautious than in M1 and doesn't seem like the same player I played with back then. Well, fair's fair (and this habit of mine of speaking up for people who are trying to get me killed will be the finish of me one of these days), you'd expect him to have learned a bit since then and maybe decide that his playing style needed to be modified. I still haven't decided whether JSexton is scum or just plain wrong about me... guess I need to get off that fence some time soon, but a mere change in playing style since when, April?, isn't enough evidence to me. Right, now I r dum, officially. I've been back and had another read down this thread and I've finally remembered M1 and the fact that JSexton is a really experienced player. That doesn't necessarily make any meta-gaming about him any more valid, but it does show my quoted post up for the sheer stupidity it is. JSexton may have changed his playing style intentionally or on account of being scum, but the one thing he hasn't done is change it on account of knowing a lot more about how to play now than he did a few months back. Looking back at the case nesta laid out against him, I'm trying to figure out how well he's answered it, and how much my perception of his answers is coloured by his continued insistence on trying to bump me off - which, as we all know, is something town do to town with depressing regularity and only the best of intentions.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 9, 2007 16:32:03 GMT -5
Sigh... You'd think I'd post in Day Three on Day Three, huh? So I'm doing my re-read and I just want to point out something I consider a bit odd. It's unrelated to my current pursuit, so I wanted to put it in a separate post: Very late in Day One, long after it was too late to matter, pygmy rugger said this: (bolding mine; color removed) Someone suggested that pygmy had misread Hal's post, and he replied, in his last post of Day One: OK. So toDay, pygmy made good on his promise to develop his strongly-felt case against Hal Briston, saying: Errrr... what? This post? Sorry, Story, I must have not realized you were asking me a question when I first read that. Basically, I think what happened was that Hal said he thought Greedy was town, but then voted for him anyway. I thought that was really odd. When I reread his posts specifically, looking for more, he tended to talk an awfully lot about the geniuses. I had him pegged as a genius, but when he was alive, I didn't want to give the scum any hints about that. I may have made a mistake by saying I thought he was a "pro town role", in retrospect. The scum may have seen that, too, and tried to get rid of a power role.
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Post by capybara on Aug 9, 2007 16:35:19 GMT -5
Now, Mal. Day 1 I was suspicious of him and voted for him,due to the Dangerous Genius Win theory that I caught trouble for (and one of the people pointing at me on that point was Drain, BTW)
Thoughts on his Day 1 post. I think in a post yesterDay Storyteller related the same narrative but left some stones unrolled on the following plotpoint, instead continuing to look at the endgame, but I want to bring attention back to this in light of later developments.
Mal, 1:335
When he votes (3 votes of 19 outstanding at that moment) the voting looks thusly: drainbead (6) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman Malacandra (5) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, mhaye, capybara GreedySmurf (4) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat
and spare change. He explains that if he voted for Drain he's just look scummy, so he votes for Greedy instead, bringing it to 5-5-6. Now reviewing that, I thought, well, that speaks pretty town of him in some way-- he could have securely saved himself by piling on Drainbead. BUT if he WERE scum. . . then in the same way a town death is a town death, his death or Drain's is sort of equal, no? Like, if he's scum, at that point-- Drain or him-- does it matter?
In light of the fact that Drain WAS scum. . . either the last 2 votes went on him or her and one of them dies, or they go on Greedy's. . . like his did. If Drain lives, she looks pretty good with her vote on him, and he's avoided looking scummy too. Perhaps there was a thought that another scum could switch votes near the end to save whichever of them was in trouble (including Drainbead's vote which was nice distribution) so he felt he could risk it at the moment (but then the sudden extra votes fro Drain seem to have put things out of control so that Drain or mystery scum switching to Greedy wouldn't help or was too risky).
Day 2:181, we have Diggitt:
Cowgirl winds up town, of course. Just pointing this out for flavor, since there seems something very strange about Mal and Diggitt's voting patterns. Both on the runner-up wagon Day 1, not lynching scum, and both on the winning wagon of Day 2, lynching town-- a day that started with an early wagon for Mal but ended up with votes scattered all over the place and 2 smallish wagons. I suspect that one of these two-- possibly both-- is scum. They both show up to discourage us from listening to Storyteller's suggestion to look into Day 2 voting patterns, and Diggit arrives with a vote for JSexton with little commentary.
For all of this plus the general "the best defense is a good offense" posting style, continued reference to his innocent towniness in the face of tenacious vicious persecution, and the fact that I find Mal much scummier than JSexton who I see collecting some votes with sketchy rationale. . . vote Malacandra
Yes, I know I'm creating a tie. Several players have yet to vote and there are 2 1/2 hours left.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 9, 2007 16:46:35 GMT -5
Storyteller your link doesn't take me to the post you think. The only one of yours on the first page of Da 2 is a vote for Roosh. Crap. Day 2, page 6, post #7 on that page. I am utterly incapable of coding a post, apparently. I'll help you. ;D
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 9, 2007 17:30:56 GMT -5
Well, bugger this for a game of soldiers. The deadline's approaching and all I'm getting for trying to be even-handed about this is to be voted for. By capybara's logic, if I don't vote for JSexton toDay then assuming he dies and comes up scum, that's evidence that I am. Sort of like "Only the true Messiah denies his divinity!". So rather than replay Day One I may as well do the "selfish" thing, and at least I'm not the dreaded third vote on the bandwagon.
Vote JSexton
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Aug 9, 2007 17:56:03 GMT -5
I've managed to put myself in a damned if I do and damned if I don't situation by leaving my vote so late.
In fact I'm not 100% sure what city CST is based off, so I could actually be missing the vote window.
I don't have a firm suspicion on anyone at this moment, which means I have to rely on other peoples analysis, which I then have to entertain the possiblity that I would be buying into a scum set up.
I have got the idea in my head that one of the vote leaders at the moment, so either Jsexton or Malacandra is scum. My suspicion-o-meter is higher on Mal than Jsexton at the moment.
Partly because I find it interesting that in Day 1 Mal wasn't willing to save himself with a vote on Drain, but toDay he's happy to save himself with a vote on Jsexton?
So on that basis I Vote Malacandra
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Post by capybara on Aug 9, 2007 19:10:05 GMT -5
Do we really have like 4 abstentions today? I know Roosh waffled off for the weekend with no vote, but no votes from Pygmy, Mad, or Story? When does the Day end?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 9, 2007 19:15:03 GMT -5
Do we really have like 4 abstentions today? I know Roosh waffled off for the weekend with no vote, but no votes from Pygmy, Mad, or Story? Looks like it. Thursday 9th August, 7pm CST (from the first post.)
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Post by capybara on Aug 9, 2007 19:17:36 GMT -5
Is that 20 minutes ago or in 40 minutes? I think my computer is confused about timezones, and it makes me dumb. It looks like a US election in here.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 9, 2007 19:23:55 GMT -5
JSexton (4) - nesta, mhaye, diggitcamara, Malacandra Malacandra (4) - JSexton, dnooman, capybara Sorry I'm late but I AM in Chicago with my fiancee so you all are taking a pretty big back seat. We have a tie. Four votes apeice, which means that Day is extended for twenty four hours. So at SEVEN PM CST tomorrow, Day ends...and this time without a doubt, because if there's still a tie, as per said in the rules, we go onto night without a kill. That being said, you may ONLY vote for those who are in the tie...that is either JSexton or MalacandraThe votes are wiped clean. Vote for one, the other, or abstain. Twenty four hours. Go.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 9, 2007 19:28:43 GMT -5
I don't know if it's necessary, but I'll reiterate my vote for JSexton.
Malacandra was brought up as a "counterweight" to drainbead on Day 1, and that makes it unlikely (in my mind) for him to be scum too.
(btw, Mal, does this have to happen to you every game?)
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Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 9, 2007 19:32:32 GMT -5
That answers Capy's question.
I'm happy with the extension personally. I'll think about my vote tomorrow.
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Post by capybara on Aug 9, 2007 20:08:16 GMT -5
Malacandra was brought up as a "counterweight" to drainbead on Day 1, and that makes it unlikely (in my mind) for him to be scum too. Hmm. I'm not buying it. Right after Mal casts his vote for Dnooman, which gets everyone in a tizzy, the votes stood at drainbead (3) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine GreedySmurf (3) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera dnooman (3) - Hockey Monkey, cowgirl, Malacandra Mhaye (1) - kat And he brought the subsequent feeding frenzy on himself-- as you see there were ample alternative bandwagons being serviced by this point already. The first response to Mal's vote and the start of the Mal wagon was Hockey, then Drain, then cowgirl, then me. (I suppose you might think I'm scum), but in any case an at-least partially town-run redeployment of votes-- and not switched from Drain--that he brought upon himself. He basically collected the Dnooman votes right off. If the Mal wagon was supposed to help Drain it certainly didn't work. Comment?
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 9, 2007 20:23:46 GMT -5
(snip) He basically collected the Dnooman votes right off. If the Mal wagon was supposed to help Drain it certainly didn't work. Comment? I don't know if you wanted my comments, but: 1. Well... didn't drainbead kind of but not really defend dnooman in her last 3 posts or so? A migration of votes under those circumstances (from dnooman to Malacandra isn't that surprising) 2. It's been said many times that we shouldn't underestimate the scum. However, we shouldn't overestimate them either. They are a minority and can't, by themselves, drive a vote. They have to convince others, etc. etc. And that means that, even a concerted effort on their part might sometimes fail.
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 9, 2007 20:44:37 GMT -5
Well, on one hand, this does make deciding a little easier.
On the other, toDay's little tiff between JSexton and Malacandra doesn't really make either one of them more scummy than the other.
Still, so far JSexton has been fairly beneath my radar, with good analysis (although he started the whole Genius Win Condition question in the first place--right now I'm leaning towards interpreting this as a genuine innocent concern, but he could also be scum, antipicating the fact that someone would raise the issue of lynching the Geniuses), so toDay's action does seem rather out of left field.
vote JSexton
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 10, 2007 2:57:47 GMT -5
I don't know if it's necessary, but I'll reiterate my vote for JSexton. Malacandra was brought up as a "counterweight" to drainbead on Day 1, and that makes it unlikely (in my mind) for him to be scum too. (btw, Mal, does this have to happen to you every game?) Apparently it does. I particularly like how not voting to save myself on Day One was a scum tell, and voting to save myself on Day Three is a scum tell too - at least, so Greedy Smurf says. ;D
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Post by Malacandra on Aug 10, 2007 4:36:55 GMT -5
Oh, and vote JSexton, as though anything else made sense right here and now.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 10, 2007 9:51:27 GMT -5
Sorry I haven't been around, I've been SO far behind at work (mostly from playing Mafia ) that I really couldn't afford to spend any time on here the last couple of days. I've spent the morning looking over the events I've missed. I think nesta did a very good job of point out a case against JSexton whom had pretty much been under my radar to this point. The case alone was only enough to get me to look in that direction, but I found JSexton's response quite telling, particularly the following statement from Post 3.68 : Color me perplexed. This looks much more to me like you're covering your tracks after you got caught red-handed. You were "curious" to see how he'd react? Is there some kind of tell for how scum reply to "gut" votes? Further, it always seems to me that the best action is always to make a compelling case. A simple one-off vote against GreedySmurf could easily be overlooked for days. Then comes the translation in post 3.69 . This is supposed to be a convincing tell? This sort of creative interpretation could be applied to just about anything, let's take a sentence from the very same post: Maybe it actually means: "Gosh, I'm trying really hard to frame you, but it doesn't look like I'm putting together a good enough case. But at least I have reasons." Either way, this has got to be one of the most ridiculous "scum tells" I've ever seen, and it looks like you're just stretching.
If we examine Malcandra, I'm bewildered there as well. I really don't understand his reasoning behind the dnooman vote or why he didn't vote drainbead (which surely would have saved his neck) versus GreedySmurf (which didn't do anything to help). These very well could be scum motivated actions. OTOH, he was one of the vote leaders on Day 1, and his bandwagon was growing VERY quickly late in the Day (including a vote from drainbead herself). Now, considering the that the probability of getting three scum on the block on Day 1 is negligible (<1%), I think it's fairly safe to say that at least one of the three (if not both of the three) are town. Thus, as DiggitCamara pointed out, it looks like Malacandra may have been selected as the scape goat for drainbead, probably because he had the best case against him at the time AND because the case against GreedySmurf was largely driven by JSexton which, if he is town would make him look really bad, and if he is scum, it defeats the purpose of deflecting votes from drainbead, no?
So, between these two, I see some evidence against both, but I find JSexton's behavior more shady, while I find Malacandra to be just... strange. Plus, with the added bonus in his favor that he may have been a scape goat on Day 1, I think the obvious choice between these two is JSexton. So, Vote JSexton. As far as I'm concerned, I really want an explantion about that "interpretation" scum tell.
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