|
Post by capybara on Aug 10, 2007 10:51:38 GMT -5
Vote Mal. See post #104.
Blam, did you see my thoughts on the Mal-scapegoat-for-Drain theory in post #104?
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 10, 2007 10:58:00 GMT -5
Vote Mal. See post #104. Blam, did you see my thoughts on the Mal-scapegoat-for-Drain theory in post #104? Whoops, by which I mean post #114.
|
|
|
Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 10, 2007 10:58:07 GMT -5
Good grief...I thought the Day ended today. I am more suspicious of Jsexton than Mal so I will vote Jsexton.
|
|
Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 10, 2007 11:42:59 GMT -5
I'm refraining from voting right now as it looks a little like a pile-on.
I'm going to review the cases after tea - just in case I spot something new.
|
|
|
Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 10, 2007 11:46:50 GMT -5
I'm refraining from voting right now as it looks a little like a pile-on. I'm going to review the cases after tea - just in case I spot something new. How can it not look like a pile on?
|
|
|
Post by nesta on Aug 10, 2007 11:57:40 GMT -5
I was hoping to hear from JSexton before voting for him again, but I guess not. I do hope, whether he's scum or town, that he comes back to post again before the deadline. It's getting a little old having the person lynched be absent for quite a while before their death.
Vote JSexton.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 10, 2007 12:03:17 GMT -5
Malacandra was brought up as a "counterweight" to drainbead on Day 1, and that makes it unlikely (in my mind) for him to be scum too. Hmm. I'm not buying it. Right after Mal casts his vote for Dnooman, which gets everyone in a tizzy, the votes stood at drainbead (3) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine GreedySmurf (3) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera dnooman (3) - Hockey Monkey, cowgirl, Malacandra Mhaye (1) - kat And he brought the subsequent feeding frenzy on himself-- as you see there were ample alternative bandwagons being serviced by this point already. The first response to Mal's vote and the start of the Mal wagon was Hockey, then Drain, then cowgirl, then me. (I suppose you might think I'm scum), but in any case an at-least partially town-run redeployment of votes-- and not switched from Drain--that he brought upon himself. He basically collected the Dnooman votes right off. If the Mal wagon was supposed to help Drain it certainly didn't work. Comment? Okay, running on my theory (as explained in my previous post) that at least one between Malacandra and GreedySmurf is town, let's theorize that the first is scum and the latter is town. Knowing full well that drainbead is in trouble here, Malacandra has an interesting choice. Surely, as scum, he also knows that GreedySmurf is not and that the other two votes on dnooman are not scum either. Further, by virtue of his explanation of his vote for dnooman, he was aware that the case against him was entirely a "lynch all lurkers" attack, and that as such, his vote would likely draw attention (perhaps away from drainbead, yes, but towards another scum, so it's at best, a wash). Meanwhile, he has a pre-made wagon, with some arguments (though, in my opinion, somewhat specious, but it WAS the first day). Here is an opportunity for him to jump in at vote 4, take some heat off of drainbead, and likely be smack in the middle of the votes for GreedySmurf on the way to what he would have hoped would be an eventual lynching. Instead, he draws attention to himself with the third vote for dnooman, and again with an oddly reasoned vote for GreedySmurf later, when he easily could have gotten on him earlier with a lot less suspicion. OTOH, if we theorize that Malacandra is town, then we get erratic behavior. Unless he has special knowledge, he wouldn't have known who any of them were. As far as his explanations, I can't say I get them, but it doesn't seem TOO far from his Day One behavior in MV (with the odd vote for zuma). However, what this alternate perspective does present is a reason why late votes went to him. As far as Day One goes, I think the case against Malacandra was certainly much more compelling than the case against GreedySmurf, thus, if Malacandra is a townie, shouldn't the scum help along the townie with the best chance of getting lynched instead of their own? We know that drainbead voted for him and, if it is the case that he's a townie, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one more scum was hiding in his wagon, especially in one of the later votes. *FTR, this is kind of a brain dump, and I took several breaks in writing it, so I apologize if it's difficult to follow.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 10, 2007 12:11:23 GMT -5
I'm refraining from voting right now as it looks a little like a pile-on. I'm going to review the cases after tea - just in case I spot something new. How can it not look like a pile on? I actually have to agree with you here Mad; this is a suspicious statement to me as well. We only have two options for whom to vote. No matter what, it's going to look like a pile on by virtue of the nature of the options. Either way, IMO, this option of a run-off is definitely better than random.org because it assigns accountability for breaking the tie, and no one who didn't have a chance of dying in a random-fest isn't up. I'd still like to see everyone vote, even if neither of these candidates if one of your top choices.
|
|
Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 10, 2007 12:39:44 GMT -5
How can it not look like a pile on? By not being quite so one-sided, that's how. Of the Malacandra voters, only Capybara has come out to play. It's just worrying me a bit - and I voted for JSexton in the first place. I'm also assuming that if one person gets over half the votes they are dead - just waiting for IT to pronounce them dead, just as if it's a real vote. I'm holding off until I've eaten so that I can think clearly. There's still six hours or so to go.
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 10, 2007 12:48:49 GMT -5
We know that drainbead voted for him and, if it is the case that he's a townie, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one more scum was hiding in his wagon, especially in one of the later votes. Well. . . "his later votes" in their entirety consisted of Cowgirl and Me. So, you know, just come out and say it, eh?
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 10, 2007 12:57:01 GMT -5
How can it not look like a pile on? By not being quite so one-sided, that's how. Of the Malacandra voters, only Capybara has come out to play. It's just worrying me a bit - and I voted for JSexton in the first place. I'm also assuming that if one person gets over half the votes they are dead - just waiting for IT to pronounce them dead, just as if it's a real vote. I'm holding off until I've eaten so that I can think clearly. There's still six hours or so to go. Okay... I understand your reservation, however, I'm not sure about the effectiveness of analyzing pile ons in a run off. See, here's the thing, while it's possible that one is scum and one is town (pretty likely, I'd wager), it's also entirely possible that both are town or both are scum (though the latter has a much lower probability). Obviously, if it's the 1 scum/1 townie case, if/when we lynch the other candidate, there's likely some good information hidden amongst the votes. OTOH, if it's one of the other two cases, we're left with a completely different scenario. If they're both townies, are they trying to distribute their votes in a way that keeps them from being associated with eachother or they're trying to eliminate the one they fear more? If they're both scum, maybe they're trying to keep the one they think is a better player or has better cover or just trying to keep the one or two that aren't suspected yet from being suspected? On other note, the other interesting thing is, unlike during the regular Day where we can assume that someone is voting for either whom they think is most likely scum or the person they think is scummy and has the best chance of being lynched, in this case, it's entirely possible that neither candidate is particularly appealling. So it ends up being a choice between the greater of two evils. IOW, while it's entirely possible that JSexton and Malacandra are equal in terms of who had them number one on their scum lists, it's also entirely possible that most of the rest of the people have one a bit higher than the other. Agh... I think I'm rambling on aimlessly again...
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 10, 2007 13:04:59 GMT -5
We know that drainbead voted for him and, if it is the case that he's a townie, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one more scum was hiding in his wagon, especially in one of the later votes. Well. . . "his later votes" in their entirety consisted of Cowgirl and Me. So, you know, just come out and say it, eh? Really? To be honest, I didn't even look back at the votes to see who was there. But... now that you mention it...
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 10, 2007 13:08:44 GMT -5
Sorry I didn't get a vote in yesterday, I was confused about the time of day ending, and then was too engrossed in MV to think about who to vote for! I posted this YesterDay: <snip> 4. Malacandra - Seems to be taking a lot of heat ToDay, from several different players, and most of his posts have necessarily been defending himself. I didn't see anything out of the ordinary when he voted YesterDay, but looking back, it does seem very odd the way he tied the votes up. <snip> 18. JSexton - His play style is... odd? I don't really understand the motive of the things he says sometimes, but who knows? I'm willing to give him the BOtD for now. <snip> I used odd to describe both of these players actions. I wonder if they're both scum? If it's only one, you'd think one of the other scum would have changed before the time limit today. Or would that have been too obvious? I'm going to think about this on the way home, I'm not to sure about the pile on, either.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 10, 2007 13:33:59 GMT -5
I firmly believe this is the most difficult game of Mafia we've had so far. I just re-read every single one of JSexton and Malacandra's posts. Every one.
JSexton has played an interesting game. It is clear that, whether town or scum, he keeps things close to the vest. He has ideas to which he alludes but sometimes never bothers to express. He threw out his first vote for GreedySmurf without offering reasons, later claiming to be trying to tease out a reaction of some sort from Greedy. Very early in the game (bottom of page nine, Day One), he responds to drainbead's suggestion that the scum might be hanging back, not sticking their necks out but not really lurking either, by saying:
No follow-up. No elaboration.
Clearly, JSexton is not a share-er. And yet...
My instinct is to believe that this sort of open deception more often marks a townie than a scum (well, it did until now, when I went and said it). Two of the best pro-town plays I've seen in any game were both made by players being "openly deceptive" - MadtheSwine lying, prevaricating, and making vague allusions about who he was investigating in the Hispaniola game; and ArizonaTeach and the other officers in the same game making false role claims.
So I can clearly not choose the wine in front of JSexton.
But try as I might, I just can't reconcile Malacandra's Day One behavior with that of a strong scum candidate. The prevailing hypothesis seems to be that Malacandra cast his now-famous vote for dnooman as a way of distracting from the drainbead wagon already in place. But to me, at least, this makes no sense.
Think about it: if you're trying to create a bandwagon - a bandwagon with a chance to have legs, one that coud legitimately derail a competing bandwagon - you have to create a bandwagon with some reason behind it. Mal's vote for dnooman brought the latter into a three-way tie, fine. But it was explicitly a "vote for the lurker" vote. That's not the kind of vote anyone is going to follow any further than that third vote.
If Mal had actually been trying to create a wagon to compete with drainbead's, he would have created one on a basis other than "lynch the lurker," because a lurking-based bandwagon is never going to get much further than the three votes dnooman got. He could have joined on to the Greedy wagon or co-opted some floating vote. Or even fabricated some plausible-sounding reason to start a fresh bandwagon that might actually work. In an odd way, far from making the dnooman wagon more likely to succeed, Mal's vote in that spot killed it dead.
So I can clearly not choose the wine in front of Mal.
Back to basics: given the available choices, vote for who you think is most likely to be scum.
OK.
vote JSexton
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 10, 2007 13:38:00 GMT -5
Hey, Ghost of Hal, if you're listening-- on the spreadsheet Dot's vote got put in Dnooman's column.
No scum cavalry coming to scum JSexton's defense? No defense from JSexton, innocent citizen of the town?
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 10, 2007 13:43:27 GMT -5
Unofficial vote count:
Jsexton 7: Blaster, Diggitt, Dotchan, Mad, Mal, Nesta, Story. Malacandra 1: Capybara Probably no vote: Roosh
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 10, 2007 13:50:17 GMT -5
And also, it appears that nine votes for an individual ends the Day.
|
|
Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Merestil Haye on Aug 10, 2007 14:04:56 GMT -5
By not being quite so one-sided, that's how. Of the Malacandra voters, only Capybara has come out to play. It's just worrying me a bit - and I voted for JSexton in the first place. I'm also assuming that if one person gets over half the votes they are dead - just waiting for IT to pronounce them dead, just as if it's a real vote. I'm holding off until I've eaten so that I can think clearly. There's still six hours or so to go. Okay... I understand your reservation, however, I'm not sure about the effectiveness of analyzing pile ons in a run off. See, here's the thing, while it's possible that one is scum and one is town (pretty likely, I'd wager), it's also entirely possible that both are town or both are scum (though the latter has a much lower probability). Obviously, if it's the 1 scum/1 townie case, if/when we lynch the other candidate, there's likely some good information hidden amongst the votes. OTOH, if it's one of the other two cases, we're left with a completely different scenario. If they're both townies, are they trying to distribute their votes in a way that keeps them from being associated with each other or they're trying to eliminate the one they fear more? If they're both scum, maybe they're trying to keep the one they think is a better player or has better cover or just trying to keep the one or two that aren't suspected yet from being suspected? On other note, the other interesting thing is, unlike during the regular Day where we can assume that someone is voting for either whom they think is most likely scum or the person they think is scummy and has the best chance of being lynched, in this case, it's entirely possible that neither candidate is particularly appealing. So it ends up being a choice between the greater of two evils. IOW, while it's entirely possible that JSexton and Malacandra are equal in terms of who had them number one on their scum lists, it's also entirely possible that most of the rest of the people have one a bit higher than the other. Agh... I think I'm rambling on aimlessly again... I'm not looking at the pile-on though. I'm interested in what case can be made against Malacandra, and how it stacks up against the evidence against JSexton. To business. Back in Day 1 I voted for Malacandra. My reasoning was "That was scummy!" (In reference to his vote for dnooman which was about as necessary as feet on a fish). Later analysis suggested it was not as scummy as my tired brain told me it was, and that in the cold light of day DrainBead was scummier. I need to reread Day 2 (probably three or four times) to draw coherent thoughts out about it. I'll have the time now that (halle lujah) I have finished my commitment to spend three hours a day on public transport to do elsewhere what I can do perfectly well here. I didn't see anything to make me think Mal was scummy. Not enough to change my vote. VoteJSexton.
|
|
|
Post by dnooman on Aug 10, 2007 15:41:33 GMT -5
Well, I do find the Jsexton arguments compelling, but if he's scum, what are the scum doing? Are they being silent? Are they voting for one of their own in some sort of bizzare strategy? Is capybara a lone scum trying to start a long shot campaign in order to save a fellow scum? And what about Jsexton's absence? He was the one that was most upset about cowgirl not role claiming, yet he's just going to the gallows silently?
If both candidates are town, the scum have already assured a townie lynch, and it doesn't really matter what any of us do. Maybe there is a more compelling argument for Jsexton, and so they feel that a vote for him is less likely to be circumspect.
If both are scum, which I doubt just because of the odds, again, it doesn't matter what any of us do because a scum dies tonight.
If only one were scum, the scum would need to make a concerted effort to distract votes from their scum.
I'm kind of troubled by seeing people that I think are most likely town, and people that I think are quite possibly scum voting for Jsexton right now. I don't yet know what to make of this, but tonight's result will surely provide info in hind sight.
I think I have to leave my vote for Malacandra in place.
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Santo Rugger on Aug 10, 2007 15:45:32 GMT -5
I'm off to a concert right now, but, concerning JSexton acting "odd", I remember him saying:
"You've never seen me as scum," Or something to that effect. Well, if he's acting different, and we've never seen him as scum, I'm going to Vote JSexton. Sorry it ends the day, but I think abstaining is a cop out, I'm leaving for the weekend, and there's already an extension anyway.
<Out of Character> I'm going to an awesome "Muzik Fest" in Santa Fe this weekend, so I probably won't be checking in till Monday </OoC>
|
|
|
Post by dnooman on Aug 10, 2007 15:58:32 GMT -5
Well, looks like pygmy hammered. I guess it's just a waiting game at this point. So, IT what's the result?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 10, 2007 16:53:29 GMT -5
Well, I do find the Jsexton arguments compelling, but if he's scum, what are the scum doing? Are they being silent? Are they voting for one of their own in some sort of bizzare strategy? Is capybara a lone scum trying to start a long shot campaign in order to save a fellow scum? And what about Jsexton's absence? He was the one that was most upset about cowgirl not role claiming, yet he's just going to the gallows silently? If both candidates are town, the scum have already assured a townie lynch, and it doesn't really matter what any of us do. Maybe there is a more compelling argument for Jsexton, and so they feel that a vote for him is less likely to be circumspect. If both are scum, which I doubt just because of the odds, again, it doesn't matter what any of us do because a scum dies tonight. If only one were scum, the scum would need to make a concerted effort to distract votes from their scum. I'm kind of troubled by seeing people that I think are most likely town, and people that I think are quite possibly scum voting for Jsexton right now. I don't yet know what to make of this, but tonight's result will surely provide info in hind sight. I think I have to leave my vote for Malacandra in place. You have a point. The only thing I can think of - and it's reaching - is that there may not be very many scum in the first place. If there were only four to begin with, for example, there are only three now. If JSexton is one of them, how could the scum possibly effect any kind of meaningful push for Malacandra without completely exposing themselves in the bargain?
|
|
|
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 10, 2007 17:34:00 GMT -5
Hey, Ghost of Hal, if you're listening-- on the spreadsheet Dot's vote got put in Dnooman's column. Thanks for the heads-up, capy. All fixed and updated. (it's always a good idea to double-check my work)
|
|
|
Post by dnooman on Aug 10, 2007 20:58:41 GMT -5
The suspense! It burns!!
|
|
|
Post by dnooman on Aug 10, 2007 23:53:10 GMT -5
I think it's almost midnight CST now. I believe thatIT will be "unavailable" until tomorrow. Either that, or he's typing up an insanely long death post.
I would never try to rush our gracious host, but my fingers are fidgeting, and they are the ones that do the typing.
SBIBEIBFHVYFCQAYW. "Stop it!" "Be patient."
|
|
|
Post by Greedy Smurf on Aug 11, 2007 0:26:36 GMT -5
I don't know if it's necessary, but I'll reiterate my vote for JSexton.
Malacandra was brought up as a "counterweight" to drainbead on Day 1, and that makes it unlikely (in my mind) for him to be scum too.
(btw, Mal, does this have to happen to you every game?)
Apparently it does. I particularly like how not voting to save myself on Day One was a scum tell, and voting to save myself on Day Three is a scum tell too - at least, so Greedy Smurf says. Mal, I'm not saying those actions are scum tells in and of themselves. What pinged about it for me was the inconsistency of your actions. I.E. Why you wouldn't vote to save yourself on Day 1, but you were happy to do so on Day 3? You specifically said on Day 1 you weren't going to vote to save yourself because everyone would be suspicious of you for doing so. What changed to make this action a palatable choice for you on Day 3 when it wasn't on Day 1? That was my point. And I'm actually curious to hear if there is a reason behind it.
|
|
|
Post by dnooman on Aug 11, 2007 2:31:59 GMT -5
Looks like it's gonna be at least 12 hours past the stated end time.
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 11, 2007 8:31:57 GMT -5
I see you shivering in anticip. . .
|
|
|
Post by JSexton on Aug 11, 2007 10:14:16 GMT -5
Bloody Hell. I apologize, I've been in the hospital for a few days. I'm better now, except I'm apparently lynched.
I'm the Crazy Townie. Who would you like me to kill when I die? It's going to Mal unless there's a strong argument otherwise.
Sorry, everyone. I should have had someone log on on my behalf, but it wasn't at the top of my list of priorities.
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 11, 2007 10:23:12 GMT -5
Well. That's interesting. So you win if the town wins, right? You're crazy, but you ARE a townie? Glad you're feeling better.
|
|