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Post by Greedy Smurf on Aug 15, 2007 20:45:26 GMT -5
I'm also not sure what to make of GreedySmurf's vote to tie Malacandra with JSexton, and his later non-vote in the runoff. But there's enough there for me to FOS GreedySmurf. Acutal vote to come tomorrow, hopefully. My tie vote was based purely on who I thought out of the two was more scummy. My non vote in the runoff was due to me being away from home at a conference over the weekend, and I only managed to jump online once at the hotels business centre very briefly, by that time Jsexton had something like 4 votes already so I wasn't going to have an impact on the outcome.
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 15, 2007 20:47:54 GMT -5
And *I* would like to FOS Dotchan for doing the same thing on Day One-- without even the excuse of work or anything to justify it and being there the whole day and not coming out with a vote-- and being all over everybody else all night and day for this. And I already admitted that my non-vote on Day One was bad, bad play. I'm trying to find scum the best I can now...and apparently I suck at it because I still didn't believe dnooman to be town. For Roosh, the FOS is minor because I can understand his predicament, but it's still something that sticks out in the back of my mind. No, it's just what's on the forefront of my thoughts right now.
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Post by capybara on Aug 15, 2007 20:48:18 GMT -5
Or are you feeding your 'batshit insane' game persona a bit more since you've been so quiet lately? Is Nesta an evil elf trying to steal your magic bag?
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Post by capybara on Aug 15, 2007 20:49:00 GMT -5
(that was a simulpost directed at Mad, BTW)
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 15, 2007 20:51:39 GMT -5
Your case against Jsexton wasn't very good,was it? This is an odd attack, Mad. Like. . . uh. . . didn't you vote for JSexton? Didn't many people? Like, everyone but me, apparently? Did you not think JSexton was scum, Mad? Why did you vote for him? I thought Nesta's (and everyone else's) arguments against JSexton were weak, but then again, I didn't vote for him. How do you resolve your own action there, Mad? I'm not getting a big scum vibe from Nesta, but then again you aren't helping us see what you're seeing with this winking and nudging and if I'm missing something massive. . . I am well aware you didn't vote for Jsex.Thanks for pointing that out. I think it should be obvious why I didn't vote for him...I think MALF is pro-town.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 15, 2007 21:41:58 GMT -5
nesta (1) - Mad the Swine
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Post by nesta on Aug 15, 2007 21:56:18 GMT -5
I think it should be obvious why I didn't vote for him...I think MALF is pro-town. Well, that's interesting. NAF/Mal is near the top of my suspicion list. Care to explain why you think NAF/Mal is pro-town?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 15, 2007 22:15:03 GMT -5
Well, here we are again. At least the Night went quickly. I'll get to the heavy lifting of analyzing individual players in the real life morning, but for tonight, I have one observation.
There are 11 players left. We started with a total of 19; I think it is very likely that there were five, or in the worst case six, scum to start with. With no scum power roles, and a number of pro-town power roles (including one with the ability to bring a player back from the dead!), I can't imagine that there were only four to begin.
That means that right now, there are either four or five scum remaining.
If there are four left, then there are seven pro-town players left. Our rope is nearing its end in that case - a mislynch toDay followed by a successful kill toNight means we'd be down to five versus four as Day Five begins - ie, one mislynch away from the end of the game.
If there are five scum left, then we are in very deep trouble. A mislynch today means the end of the game. If this is the case, then we must do everything possible to catch a scum toDay. Here is my opinion; it is likely to get me in trouble, but c'est la vie. If it is the general consensus that there are five scum still in the game - and, frankly, even if there are only four - I think that it is time for the Geniuses to claim en masse (not early in the Day, but later). Doing this will have three benefits:
1. It will obviously narrow our lynch pool today. If there are five scum versus six pro-town, lynching in the absence of a Genius claim means we have less than a 50% chance of nailing scum picking at random. Obviously, we hope to do better than random through analysis, but our starting point is < 50%. If there are, say, two Geniuses remaining, our chances will instantly improve to 55% (five out of nine candidates). In a situation where a mislynch could mean the end of the game, this will be big.
2. If there are only two Geniuses left, and they do not claim, and one of them happens to be killed toNight, their usefulness ends. A scum counterclaim to a genius claim (or vice versa) will put us in a bind that will be difficult to escape, particularly in a situation where we have to guess correctly or it's game over.
3. A Genius claim toDay will actually make the Night kill scenario more beneficial to us. The scum will have to choose - fire at one of our Geniuses - and take the risk that whoever is the Doctor will protect their target - or kill an unknown, and narrow our pool of suspects even further. Meanwhile, the Doctor will have a shorter, more useful list of potential targets to protect - right now, he or she is either self-protecting or shooting blind.
Again, I recognize this will be an unpopular opinion, but I firmly believe this needs to be said. While I believe that preserving some secret information is beneficial, there comes a point where holding your cards too tightly - especially when the information is more valuable out in the open than under wraps - becomes a trap. You start reflexively thinking, "power roles should never claim, or at least not now, it's too early," even in situations (such as this one) where their continued anonymity actually grants no benefit to the town. I believe we have reached this point.
I'm not trying to be the Proclaimer of Doom or anything, but it's entirely possible this game could be over before Day Five. It's time for more aggressive measures.
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Post by capybara on Aug 15, 2007 22:36:00 GMT -5
Story, I am finding this a reasonable discussion. I don't know why but I was imagining fewer scum-- MHaye was added late and all. It might just be approaching a battle of attrition point. "Out" geniuses would certainly help us fill in some green spots in the voting records.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Aug 15, 2007 23:20:44 GMT -5
At the risk of also being lumped as Scum for doing so, I find I agree wholeheartedly with your suggestion Storyteller.
As you say even if there are only 4 scum left, if we lynch a townie toDay, and then lose another tonight that'd be a 4/5 scum/town split, needless to say not good.
The only situation where I see this being a bad idea is if there were only 4 scum to start, thus only 3 left now - in which case we've still got a couple of Days to comfortably play with. How likely is that starting number for the scum though?
The thing is, at the end of the day it is up to the geniuses whether they feel like playing along, I can't imagine it would feel entirely comfortable being nightkill target #1, the possible protection of the doctor not withstanding. How certain are we that there is more than 1 genius left anyway? We might be left with a single unverifable roleclaim?
As I said I agree with your thoughts, and am just playing devils advocate with these questions.
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 15, 2007 23:39:15 GMT -5
Well, here we are again. At least the Night went quickly. I'll get to the heavy lifting of analyzing individual players in the real life morning, but for tonight, I have one observation. There are 11 players left. We started with a total of 19; I think it is very likely that there were five, or in the worst case six, scum to start with. With no scum power roles, and a number of pro-town power roles (including one with the ability to bring a player back from the dead!), I can't imagine that there were only four to begin. That means that right now, there are either four or five scum remaining. I can't say I agree with this. My guess (before finding out MHaye's role) was 4 or 5 psychos, because 6 would have been completely broken in a game of this size. However, if you want to meta-reason, we can figure MHaye came in as a power-role because perhaps Idle Thoughts felt the game was tilted a little bit in the psycho's favor (which would mean maybe 5 and not 4) or he thought people might think he was nothing but vanilla town because he was added late. Regardless, we have to assume the game still would have been reasonably balanced with the initial 18 players, and 6 would be a full 1/3 of the population, when 1/4 is generally the rule of thumb max, with the square root being around the optimum number. Even if there are only three left, we're still in a heap of trouble... look at the deaths... everyone who has died so far has been a pro-town power role of some sort, except for drainbead (obviously), Kat (who was collateral damage), and Hal (I would consider cowgirl one, for the logic that JSexton offered, that it was claimable). In other words, the best we can say is that we caught a psycho who was likely given to us, and the psychos had a slight misfire on Night two. I don't understand this at all. Knowing the geniuses doesn't help us with lynches at all... if they're about to get lynched, they claim... that simple. As long as there's at least two of them, a genius is unlynchable. This is partially true. While they will no longer be 100% verifiable, they will still be able to counter-claim a scum and, at worst, get a 1-1 trade. Similarly, if they're about to get lynched, they could claim, and scum would be foolish to counter-claim, because they'll almost certainly get lynched. See, this I'm not so sure either. Let's say the geniuses claim, then the doctor would be a fool not to protect one of them... assuming there's two, the psychos still have a 50% chance of nailing one or, if they continue to be exceptionally lucky or good at picking out power roles, they can use it as an opportunity to pick off the doctor, at which point the game is essentially lost. Now, I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad idea either, but it is definitely something that I think the geniuses are better off deciding themselves, because only they know their identities, how likely they'll get tied to dnooman, how suspected they are, etc. IMO, if they do decide to claim today, they should wait until later because there may be information to be gained from allowing a train to be started against one of them that would otherwise be lost if we were only voting against unknowns.
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 15, 2007 23:43:23 GMT -5
Ya know what...I have changed my mind. unHOS BlaM and Diggit. I am gonna Vote Nesta. I will leave it at that. No break down. I know what I think,I am curious too see if ya'll think the same. I'd like to see your case. FTR, I don't really have much of a read either way on nesta, certainly not enough to vote for him. Meanwhile, you come in, casting a vote, and not giving reasons...
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 16, 2007 0:47:33 GMT -5
# of scum - I agree, there's either 4 or 5
# of geniuses - including the departed dnooman, I don't think there'd be more than three, because I think that'd break the game too far in favor of the town.
And now, time for some math:
1) 5 scum, 2 masons, 1 doctor, 3 townies: 45.5% (5/11) chance of hitting scum blind, 55.6% (5/9) chance if masons claim, 62.5% (5/8) if all power roles claim. 2) 4 scum, 2 masons, 1 doctor, 4 townies: 36.4% blind, 44.4% with confirmed masons, 50% with full claim. 3) 5 scum, 1 mason, 1 doctor, 4 townies: 45.5%, 50%, 55.6% 4) 4 scum, 1 mason, 1 doctor, 5 townies: 36.4%, 40%, 44.4% 5) ...or some other option that I haven't considered (like a secret scum power role *casts suspicious glances towards Idle Thoughts*).
I'm not a fan of making the doctor play chicken with the scum, and depending on which scenerio we're in our odds don't improve that much.
For the time being I would advocate that nobody claims unless they're in danger of being lynched.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 16, 2007 2:28:40 GMT -5
I think i agree with Dotchan's opinion #2 actually. I think there had to be at least 3 geniuses in order to even try to grant them a "genius win only" clause.... And actually up until the GoodDnoo's death, i feared that the Geniuses might be going for that sort of a victory condition (Yes, I still remember the day 1 convo...) Paranoia...ooo
But time to examine the voting patterns now hopefully and return with a stronger post. (Which is one reason i was sorta saddened Dotchan by your nightly accusation of moi, that that would be a reasoning for you to drop a vote on someone, I think at this point we've got harder data to look at (ie: Voting patterns/Trends/ "groups"), but the fact that you felt a need to state that the next day you were going to vote for someone based on just the lack of a voting on a day (even with the ability to see if someone is or isn't there) is really a weak way to start the day. I'm glad its gone down to only a FOS, but still. It's kinda... 'meh'- it doesn't sit well with me, but there's hopefully more important things to look at than just getting into an argument with you over that sort of behavior on the start of this new day. Anyways back to Read Day 3 and return....
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 16, 2007 4:00:07 GMT -5
Did i just freaking lose my post?
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 16, 2007 4:06:47 GMT -5
GAH! I DID! URGH! I had a bunch of thoughts and all.... Goddamnit... All freaking lost. Last time i use QuickReply for lengthy posts (I hate these things, Dotchan Well thought out is the way to go!) I'm frustrated now, will probably have 2-3 ideas for a vote though in the morning. But can only seem to post at night currently, hopefully that'll change. Mad... your behavior is quite erratic. I'd like to know your thoughts on Malacandra/NAF actually after you've "studied" him. Or are you just gonna go 100% behind this Nesta thing for now.... And Dotchan. I'm like 50-50 on you right now, I guess its that Old WIFOM case, huh? =\ I have other thoughts, but methinks i shouldn't reveal them yet because it leads to nothing good....
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 16, 2007 8:18:04 GMT -5
Blaster Master - I am happy to concede that the most likely number of remaining scum is four, down from five to start the game. I think you're underestimating the possibility that there are five - all of the power roles were pro-town, and there wasn't even an immune-to-investigations scum role, and yet Idle still felt the need to insert an incredibly powerful pro-town role. But even if there are four left, that leaves us only one more mislynch with which to play. Two mislynches = game over, even if the Doctor gets incredibly lucky and manages a Night block. I don't understand this at all. Knowing the geniuses doesn't help us with lynches at all... if they're about to get lynched, they claim... that simple. As long as there's at least two of them, a genius is unlynchable. Oh, well, sure, "that simple!" Because if there's one thing I've learned from watching and playing this game over the last several months, it's that a late-in-the-Day forced power role claim from a player in mortal danger always results in a carefully considered and successful lynching decision. Obviously, this is sarcasm. If a Genius is forced to role claim late in the Day because there are votes on him/her, that means that the other pro-town players have spent the Day researching him/her, building a carefully reasoned argument (well, I mean, hopefully). Now the claim happens. There are, typically, about 18 hours left in the Day. We have to lynch someone. There's no time to go back and re-read everything again. People, including and especially pro-town people, start clutching at straws - lookign for a reason, any reason, to place a vote for someone. In the resultant chaos it is: (1) trivially easy for the scum to manipulate the vote in a direction they like without real chance of discovery; and (2) easy for the scum to stay hidden - since everyone is basically voting in a panicked ad hoc fashion, the scum's votes, if based on shaky reasoning, blend in with all the town votes based on shaky reasoning. Nothing, and I mean nothing, reduces the chances of a successful lynch than forcing a late-Day power role claim and trying to scramble for an alternative with the clock ticking. What troubles me, Blaster Master, is that you know this. The thing you're ignoring is how close we are to the end of the game. A 1:1 trade is all well and good in the mid-game. But if we mislynch today, and then the scum hit another Genius tonight... well, a 1:1 trade works out real nice for the scum tomorrow, supposing the trade goes in the right order. If, during the Night toNight, a Genius dies, a scum could claim Genius early tomorrow. The real Genius counterclaims. We get the fun task of basically flipping a coin to see who's lying, and if we're wrong, we lose. What troubles me, Blaster Master, is that you know this. One more time, I know this will be an unpopular opinion, but losing the Doctor, at this stage of the game, will not lose us the game (sorry, Doc, whoever you are). (S)he would have to have not one but two successful blocks to have any impact on the game going forward. Our situation is incredibly simple - lynch no more than one townie, and we win. Lynch two townies, and we lose. The Doctor doesn't even really matter right now (again, sorry, Doc). Given this fact, with the Geniuses declared, the scum will do everything they can to try to force those two bad lynches. The best way to force bad lynches is to kill confirmed townies, to keep the pool as large as possible during the Day. They will target the Geniuses - they'd be fools to do otherwise - because even if the Doctor blocks them once, it doesn't even matter. They can still win by forcing two townie lynches. Just two. If they choose to keep shooting for the Doctor, then they're not playing smart - they'd have a smallish chance of hitting, and even then the Geniuses would still be alive, ineligible for a lynch. And that's not even counting for the fact that the Doctor always has the option to self-protect, just to keep the scum guessing. What troubles me, Blaster Master, is that you know this. Your objections to my post are ostensibly reasonable but don't apply to this particular situation, and I can't think that you don't realize this. Which is... well, let's just call it worrisome. Blaster Master post history, coming up in however long it takes me to wade through that many posts. But first - I don't want to spend the whole Day discussing the Geniuses. The following will be my last word on the matter: This is directed to the Geniuses. Blaster Master is right about one thing: this is your decision to make, not mine or the town's. It doesn't really matter if my reasons persuade anyone but you. I believe that this particular game will be won or lost during the Day, not during the Night. We have reached a point where the situation is exceedingly simple - lynch scum every single Day (with one single Day's worth of leeway), or lose. Declare, and you improve our chances of succeeding during the Day (see this post, and my previous one, for how). You also put targets on your own backs. I know this. What of it? As I said before, it no longer matters who dies at Night; it matters who dies during the Day. I freely acknowledge that you have information I don't have, so I'll put it to you. I have outlined several advantages to the town associated with your making your presence known. Some have taken issue with these advantages - my answers to those are above. But no one yet has proposed any significant advantage or benefit associated with your continuing anonymity, apart from "conventional wisdom says that Geniuses should stay hidden." If you perceive a benefit that I do not, then by all means stay quiet; I will say nothing further on the subject. But stay quiet, if you do, for a reason, not just because "that's how it's done."
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 16, 2007 8:21:05 GMT -5
This is an odd attack, Mad. Like. . . uh. . . didn't you vote for JSexton? Didn't many people? Like, everyone but me, apparently? Did you not think JSexton was scum, Mad? Why did you vote for him? I thought Nesta's (and everyone else's) arguments against JSexton were weak, but then again, I didn't vote for him. How do you resolve your own action there, Mad? I'm not getting a big scum vibe from Nesta, but then again you aren't helping us see what you're seeing with this winking and nudging and if I'm missing something massive. . . I am well aware you didn't vote for Jsex.Thanks for pointing that out. I think it should be obvious why I didn't vote for him...I think MALF is pro-town. The hell...? Are you trying to get lynched? Seriously. The hell?
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 16, 2007 9:17:08 GMT -5
Oh, well, sure, "that simple!" Because if there's one thing I've learned from watching and playing this game over the last several months, it's that a late-in-the-Day forced power role claim from a player in mortal danger always results in a carefully considered and successful lynching decision. Obviously, this is sarcasm. If a Genius is forced to role claim late in the Day because there are votes on him/her, that means that the other pro-town players have spent the Day researching him/her, building a carefully reasoned argument (well, I mean, hopefully). Now the claim happens. There are, typically, about 18 hours left in the Day. We have to lynch someone. There's no time to go back and re-read everything again. People, including and especially pro-town people, start clutching at straws - lookign for a reason, any reason, to place a vote for someone. In the resultant chaos it is: (1) trivially easy for the scum to manipulate the vote in a direction they like without real chance of discovery; and (2) easy for the scum to stay hidden - since everyone is basically voting in a panicked ad hoc fashion, the scum's votes, if based on shaky reasoning, blend in with all the town votes based on shaky reasoning. Nothing, and I mean nothing, reduces the chances of a successful lynch than forcing a late-Day power role claim and trying to scramble for an alternative with the clock ticking. What troubles me, Blaster Master, is that you know this. Now, this is a misrepresentation of what I said. I didn't say anyone should wait until they're at death's door to role-claim, but I do think an excessively early claim is detrimental too. A good example of this principle is MadTheSwine's play in M4 where, even though he had information, he waited a bit to give the pirates a chance to screw up. I'm not advocating waiting 'til the last 18 hours, what I am advocating is that, if they decide to claim, to at least wait a day or so, and see if any of the psychos somehow tip their hands first. Actually, what you're failing to realize is that its a 50% chance at a 1:1 trade, not a 100% chance, because it's entirely possible that we actually catch the false claimer first. That is, the expected trade value is 1:2. That is, if we have one mislynch, we sure as hell better make it count, and if the expected trade is 1:2, that means we could expect to get two scum for the one mislynch. However, even that isn't accurate because, if there's two geniuses left, a psycho claims genius and a genius counter-claims, and we're about to make the wrong choice... the other one just pipes up. IOW, the expected trade is 100% in our favor in that case, but it only works if they remain unclaimed. I still disagree here; the power of the doctor isn't to extend the game at this point, because he'll need two successful blocks to extend it one day, and that seems fairly slim. His power will help us keep confirmed people alive which makes lynching at least a little easier. My worry is that if the geniuses claim, and the psychos have a bead on the doctor, he's dead, and the confirmed become moot because they'll be dead in quick succession, leaving us shooting blind at the unknowns , in which we're virtually bound to get more than one wrong in 4 days. At least as long as the doctor survives, if there's any geniuses alive, the psychos are forced to choose between playing chicken with the doctor, or make the unconfirmed pool smaller. To reiterate the one point we aggree on: We can give suggestions, but ultimately it is up to them. Especially in the case of this game, the geniuses have the benefit of discussing openly with eachother their thoughts. And I'm glad that this discussion has remained mostly between you and me. Either way, I expect this will be the last I'll comment on it, and I only did here because I felt like my points were misrepresented. I don't want to derail the discussion from finding psychos any more than we already have.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 16, 2007 10:12:48 GMT -5
I am well aware you didn't vote for Jsex.Thanks for pointing that out. I think it should be obvious why I didn't vote for him...I think MALF is pro-town. The hell...? Are you trying to get lynched? Seriously. The hell? What? How the hell can you think I am trying to be lynched?
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 16, 2007 10:17:27 GMT -5
Bah! You guys post too much while I am asleep or driving to work.
I will say that I agree 100% with Story and would like to officially FOS BlaM for his anti town logic. Story is right, he is watching another game with perfect knowladge, he has been scum, vanilla, and a power role. He should know better.
Mad, don't just vote and make us guess what you are thinking. That doesn't do us any good and you know it. And while I appreciate you backing me up, I seem to have a large ammount of town sentiment against me ATM and I am wondering if you are trying to set yourself up for a bit of an "I told ya so" after I get lynched. So thanks for believing in me, would you mind telling me why.
On the other side, I understand the case against me/Mal, and I don't. Does someone (nesta, I am looking at you) want to come in and tell me why Mal was, and I am still, so high on your suspicion list?
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 16, 2007 10:18:43 GMT -5
note to self: always use spellcheck. We have spellcheck on this board, always use it.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 16, 2007 10:34:16 GMT -5
Bah! You guys post too much while I am asleep or driving to work. I will say that I agree 100% with Story and would like to officially FOS BlaM for his anti town logic. Story is right, he is watching another game with perfect knowladge, he has been scum, vanilla, and a power role. He should know better. Mad, don't just vote and make us guess what you are thinking. That doesn't do us any good and you know it. And while I appreciate you backing me up, I seem to have a large ammount of town sentiment against me ATM and I am wondering if you are trying to set yourself up for a bit of an "I told ya so" after I get lynched. So thanks for believing in me, would you mind telling me why. On the other side, I understand the case against me/Mal, and I don't. Does someone (nesta, I am looking at you) want to come in and tell me why Mal was, and I am still, so high on your suspicion list? Ok. My intention isn't to make you guess what I am thinking,I put that vote out there because I think nesta is scum and have reasons for it.I would think that somebody might actually investigate and voice their own thoughts,then I can see if they think the same things(or at least some of them). I see it is an unpopular way to play,I won't do it anymore. As far as to why I don't think you are scum MAF,at one point earlier in the game I thought you might be a power role.Am I sure?No,but there was enough of a doubt in my mind not to cast a vote for you. Like I said,I need to look back over the MAF posts and see if I change my mind. Nesta comes first though Also,FWIW(which isn't much apparently),I think there are only 3 scum left,could be 4,no way there is 5.
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 16, 2007 10:52:02 GMT -5
Bah! You guys post too much while I am asleep or driving to work. I will say that I agree 100% with Story and would like to officially FOS BlaM for his anti town logic. Story is right, he is watching another game with perfect knowladge, he has been scum, vanilla, and a power role. He should know better. Mad, don't just vote and make us guess what you are thinking. That doesn't do us any good and you know it. And while I appreciate you backing me up, I seem to have a large ammount of town sentiment against me ATM and I am wondering if you are trying to set yourself up for a bit of an "I told ya so" after I get lynched. So thanks for believing in me, would you mind telling me why. On the other side, I understand the case against me/Mal, and I don't. Does someone (nesta, I am looking at you) want to come in and tell me why Mal was, and I am still, so high on your suspicion list? Ok. My intention isn't to make you guess what I am thinking,I put that vote out there because I think nesta is scum and have reasons for it.I would think that somebody might actually investigate and voice their own thoughts,then I can see if they think the same things(or at least some of them). I see it is an unpopular way to play,I won't do it anymore. As far as to why I don't think you are scum MAF,at one point earlier in the game I thought you might be a power role.Am I sure?No,but there was enough of a doubt in my mind not to cast a vote for you. Like I said,I need to look back over the MAF posts and see if I change my mind. Nesta comes first though Also,FWIW(which isn't much apparently),I think there are only 3 scum left,could be 4,no way there is 5. Fair enough. It's just the one thing I noticed in reading Day 2 and 3 was a lack of real dialogue. We need to actually start talking to each other or the scum are going to walk away with this thing. For instance (not to pick on you Mad, but you are a handy example) if you had explained a little more clearly why you didn't want to say why you were voting for nesta you might not have gotten quite such a WTF reaction. (At least from me) I am not trying to be professor mafia over here, but I think I am comming in with fresh eyes and pointing out this sort of flawed play might be the best way I can help the town at this point.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 16, 2007 10:55:15 GMT -5
Well, that didn't take long . Upon further review,the vote is overturned.I based the vote on an earlier post in this Day without doing a review.I don't see anything to support it. Unvote Nesta. BTW, just so ya know the is aimed at myself.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 16, 2007 11:09:05 GMT -5
OK, so back to Scum Detection 101. I think the events of yesterDay are worth a bit of study. I did not believe mhaye's role claim, so at the time, I gave little thought to its implications if true.
But consider: had we believed both JSexton AND mhaye, the results would have been devastating to the scum. The Doctor returned at this point in the game would quite possibly have been game-turning. The Geniuses almost certainly would have claimed, giving us (probably) three confirmed townies, plus mhaye, who would have been at that point confirmed, plus hockey monkey as a fifth confirmed player, and the Doctor as an eventual sixth. Say the scum killed dnooman anyway - we'd now be down to 11 players, of which four were absolutely confirmed in their roles. hockey monkey would be assured of at least one more investigation, and probably more (unless the scum get a bead on the Doctor). Seven unknowns, containing four(ish) scum, and one or even two absolutely reliable investigations? The town would have had to work very hard to lose the game at that point.
What's my point? Well, none of us realized this because none of us knew if mhaye was lying.
Well, a few people knew. The scum knew mhaye wasn't one of them, and knew he was telling the truth. They had to be freaking out when he made his claim, because if the town believed it, it was probably game over for them. Their game hinged on making sure that mhaye's claim was not believed. If one of them risked exposure by opposing the claim, so be it - they'd be better off losing one of their own then losing the game.
Note that if Blaster Master happens to be scum, the need to ensure that mhaye wasn't believed was even greater.
So. In what follows i will include only posts where, in my opinion, the author is either explicitly or implicitly supporting or casting doubt upon mhaye's claim; I'm leaving out questions, requests for clarification, and posts on other matters:
mhaye claims at #167
Early on, we see a bunch of incredulous responses, no one really expressing outright belief or disbelief. The very first player to offer a strong opinion on the subject was MadtheSwine at #177 - he believes mhaye outright.
nesta is next, at #182. She casts a bit of doubt - "this could be a clever scum move" - but doesn't have any ideas how.
She says:
Hm. This is interesting. nesta appears to be playing this quite carefully. She won't accuse him of being scum or of lying - which she might not do if she KNEW he was neither scum nor lying - but she introduces a reason why we would not follow him anyway. And her reason, outlined in her first paragraph above, makes no sense! Is it worth sacrificing someone who might be town to bring back the Detective? YES! I think even Blaster would agree, and he'd be the one dying! So she's discouraging us from pursuing this line of inquiry, while subtly suggesting that she thinks mhaye is town - a bit suspicious, IMO.
capybara up next; she proposes and dismisses an anti-mhaye theory in the same post.
Swine with another vote for going with the plan, at #186.
nesta, again at #189, subtly smudging mhaye with no outright accusation.
Blaster arrives at #198. He's pretty strongly doubting the claim, for meta reasons and because he doubts the timing. Blaster's opposition to this plan is predictable whether he is scum or town - it's his hide on the line, if he's town, and he'd want to be sure everything was on the up and up before he made that sort of sacrifice. It's his hide on the line, if he's scum, and he'd want to find a reason to avoid death. He continues to oppose, rather strongly, for several posts, for reasons that make sense and with which I agreed.
capybara and Blaster both argue, sensibly, against having mhaye post his grid as requested by our late Crazy Townie"
pygmy rugger storms in at #214 - he thinks the claim is bunk, he's angry that we're even discussing it (given that technically the Day is over), and he wants JSexton to target Mal as planned. The vehemence of his reaction could well be scum who sees his game circling down the tubes. He gives no reason for disbelieving mhaye. In fact, when the latter says that it "shouldn't take too long" to post the grid, pygmy makes an utterly silly statement - "Yeah, "shouldn't take too long" to figure out what bingo board would best benefit the scum, and influence the town's votes during the day" - as devising such a carefully crafted board would indeed take some time, much less than just posting one you've already got handy.
I say I don't believe mhaye at #221. My reasons are outlined briefly.
mhaye posts his full claim.
Blaster Master picks at it a bit. capybara reiterates that she thinks posting it was unwise.
Quickie "I don't believe him either" from dotchan - no explanation given - then more "I do believe him" from MadtheSwine, and then JSexton PMs his choice to Idle and it's academic from that point on.
Conclusions from this monstrosity to follow.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 16, 2007 11:27:00 GMT -5
OK, here's what I think, separated out for ease of looking, and based, for the moment, only on analysis of the happenings between mhaye's role claim and JSexton's delivery of his kill choice to Idle. First, I maintain that at least one of the players actively involved in that period is almost certainly scum. Trying to stay above the fray is one thing - but failing to weigh in at all on a suject that could end the game for your team? I don't buy it. Scum were chatting. What were they saying? Other than mhaye, JSexton, and dnooman - whose alignments are all now known - the most prominent participants, ie the ones who expressed opinions about mhaye's claim one way or another, were: Blaster Master Malacandra (now NAF) storyteller0910 nesta pygmy rugger capyabara dotchan MadtheSwineOf these, the events of this time period tell us nothing at all, really, about Blaster or Malacandra. Blaster opposed mhaye, on the whole, but for pretty fair reasons. Mal has pretty consistently not wanted to die, so his actions are usually consistent with that approach. dotchan's modest contribution tells us comparatively little, as does my own. capybara seemed fairly level headed about the whole business. MadtheSwine believed mhaye from the moment he made the claim. He had plenty of chances to recant, to support some other plan, and he argued consistently that we should kill BM and get our Therapist back. He comes out very well in this exchange; I can not imagine that a scum would argue so forcefully for a move that would have made it nigh on impossible for the scum to win. I will not move him off my suspicion list altogether - no one gets off that list without claiming or dying - but he's dropping to its bottom for the time being. The remaining two players on my list are the two that seem scummy (oddly enough, two old Friends of Ours . pygmy rugger's one post - read it again at #214 - is so frustrated in tone. He doesn't believe mhaye, but won't say why. He seems genuinely angry that the conversation was even allowed to develop. In that post, he also notes that he's only dropping in for a moment - his post sounds like someone who's furious that what he perceives as a twist of the rules could screw his team, but doesn't have the time to compose himself and make a calmer post. Of course, he could just be a stickler for the rules. But then there's the player who did try to stay above the fray - as scum will - but nonetheless managed to stay negative about mhaye and his claim throughout her posting. She wants us to disbelieve him - or even to think his claim isn't worth pursuing even if true. Think about that last for a moment - she doesn't want us to go along with mhaye even if he's for real. She thinks it might not be worth it. Soudns to me like someone who doesn't want to dog mhaye too hard - after all, she knows she and her psycho buddies can kill him later if they have to, she even says so! - but wants to quietly influence town opinion away from following his plan. Accordingly, I now vote nesta
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 16, 2007 12:02:29 GMT -5
Regarding nesta and MAF,I may have jumped the gun with the unvote.I was just reading nesta's posts by themselves,which is what I just did with MAF's.Something came up when I put the two together. One thing(about the only thing) that struck me as I was reading nesta's post was this: I find drainbead and Malacandra about equally scummy I find Malacandra’s third vote for dnooman very strange. That’s the single scummiest thing I’ve seen so far this game. There isn’t a whole lot to go on with Malacandra, though, other than those two things. They seem scummy to me, but it could just be his not thinking things through, so for now I’ll FOS Malcandra. "The single most scummiest thing" yet only receives a FOS and votes (late) for drain. In Day3,nesta posts a long case against Jsex and votes for him even though the player that has done the "scummiest thing he has seen." is on the chopping block along with Jsex.
These are from a exchange with Jsex: What I find odd is that as far as I can see his third vote for dnooman is the only real case you've made against Malacandra and I don't think that holds up. What I'm having a hard time giving you the benefit of the doubt on is that you have been relying on others' cases against Malacandra, which seems to be playing it too safe. If you'll indulge me, though, would you please state your case against Malacandra? I find him scummy as well, and if he is scum I think you are much less likely to be, but so far I'm not really understanding the case against him, but I do know why I find you scummy. Well, that's interesting. NAF/Mal is near the top of my suspicion list. Care to explain why you think NAF/Mal is pro-town? Nesta keeps on and on about how MAF is on top of his scum list and yet finds reasons to vote for someone else,cripes at times he seems to be sorta defending him. Dunno why this didn't jump out at me as I read through nesta the first time.It didn't click til I was reading MAF's post and I noticed MAF only mentions nesta two times in his entire posting history. Here: quote author=malacandra board=asylumlane thread=1186264288 post=1186694686] Looking back at the case nesta laid out against him, I'm trying to figure out how well he's answered it, and how much my perception of his answers is coloured by his continued insistence on trying to bump me off - which, as we all know, is something town do to town with depressing regularity and only the best of intentions. and here: Well, I'm starting to get an idea as to someone who is plainly as mad as a hatter... And here: nesta, I'm a rules wonk. Can't help it. Even if it's potentially to my advantage, I don't like it when we suddenly start ignoring the rules. In the whole game nesta has not voted for MAF. What does all this mean? I dunno right now...hafta think on it for a bit. Thoughts? *is this post ok with everybody?*
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 16, 2007 12:12:36 GMT -5
(snip) Soudns to me like someone who doesn't want to dog mhaye too hard - after all, she knows she and her psycho buddies can kill him later if they have to, she even says so! - but wants to quietly influence town opinion away from following his plan. (snip) Not to cramp your style, and all, but nesta is male... I'll try to get a good look at what happened during the second and third Day and weigh in. But so far your analysis seems on the money to me.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 16, 2007 12:14:54 GMT -5
(snip) *is this post ok with everybody?* I doubt it. For someone who's touchy about the way he's called, you have misspelled NAF'S name pretty consistently. ;D
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