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Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 17, 2007 9:44:03 GMT -5
I'm not sold on nesta's claim, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. My FoS on him stays, though, until I have more proof one way or the other. Why on earth would our real geniuses suffer a fake genius to live? Especially in a situation like the one we're in, where we need to catch scum today or be in terrible trouble at best? In the absence of a counterclaim - and I don't think one is coming - I can't understand FoS-ing nesta, and I'm one who went after him in the first place. The whole "I'm not sure if I want to believe this role claim, even though there's been no counterclaim and there's no good reason for the real role not to counter" thing is always odd to me.
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 9:51:33 GMT -5
I'm not sold on nesta's claim, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. My FoS on him stays, though, until I have more proof one way or the other. Uh. . . what? So, you think Nesta's scum taking a risk? And the geniuses aren't counterclaiming? "Interesting" theory there. Or on review. . . what Storyteller said.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 10:03:14 GMT -5
Just a couple thoughts as I sit here looking at a few people: Early from Day1 FoS 11. dotchan, Timestamp: 2007-07-25 00:27:30 IST. I agree that random voting on the first day is fruitless, but a FoS can't hurt. Who cares if you got it from random.org, or from random.yourhead? The point of casting votes and FoSs on the first day is to generate a discussion. It's obviously working, Roosh, just look at all the talking you've done about it. Regarding Dotchan,I won't link to all the posts, but Dotchan has FOS'ed 9 different people( Mad,Nesta,BlaM,Greedy,Mal,Roosh,Story,Dnoo,and Capy),plus FOS'ed everyone twice.Also has voted for 5 different people(Jsex,Mhaye,nesta,Roosh,and Mal.) Wishy-washy townie worried about steppin up to the plate? or Scum trying to cover tracks when her time comes up to the chopping block?
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 10:04:48 GMT -5
First off though I'll say I believe Nesta's claim. Secondly, great post Capybara, With it laid out like that I can't help but notice some trends. As to the voting, my prime suspect since Day 1, Diggitcamera, shows up on the lynching team everytime, except the once - when I was the main wagon to derail Drainbeads lynching, and guess what - he votes for me. Both Diggitcamera and NAFacandra have been on the same vote every time, but if they are both scum I'm not sure that would be smart play to be seen doing that. Or perhaps they thought it would be lost in the noise. Is it coincidence that the one time Maf was in real danger (Day 3) Diggit is on the other horse. So I am voting for Diggitcamera, and have a FOS at NafacandraThe voting record sort of screams at you doesn't it? The Day 1 and Day 3 first vote look very interesting, IMO. I'm trying to figure out what else is in there-- Nesta's claim clears up a bunch of the late voting problems: All the late votes for Drain are town, and if a majority of scum were already not on the Drain wagon and on the only of the three wagons that featured a town suspect, there was nothing they could do. Just, you know, a hypothesis (I think Diggitcamera, to my surprise, made this point a few posts ago).
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 17, 2007 10:10:21 GMT -5
Just a couple thoughts as I sit here looking at a few people: Early from Day1 FoS 11. dotchan, Timestamp: 2007-07-25 00:27:30 IST. I agree that random voting on the first day is fruitless, but a FoS can't hurt. Who cares if you got it from random.org, or from random.yourhead? The point of casting votes and FoSs on the first day is to generate a discussion. It's obviously working, Roosh, just look at all the talking you've done about it. Regarding Dotchan,I won't link to all the posts, but Dotchan has FOS'ed 9 different people( Mad,Nesta,BlaM,Greedy,Mal,Roosh,Story,Dnoo,and Capy),plus FOS'ed everyone twice.Also has voted for 5 different people(Jsex,Mhaye,nesta,Roosh,and Mal.) Wishy-washy townie worried about steppin up to the plate? or Scum trying to cover tracks when her time comes up to the chopping block? I am thinking scum trying to cover tracks. I have been reading the various threads over again...and I think this makes the most sense. Dotchan's constant smudging and the whole attitude that seems to be saying "everyone is so suspicous!" it feels like a newbe scum tell to me. Add that to her current statement about nesta (which feels like scum trying to discredit one of the best chances we have of winning this game) vote dotchan
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 10:20:24 GMT -5
I don't know. That all makes a certain sort of sense, but I don't get a real sense of scummy trajectory from her votes, unless they're aimed to look sporadic and trajectoryless. I still get a "town noob who wants to play" vibe. You'll have to convince me on this one. Meanwhile I'm going to keep re-reading.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 10:41:14 GMT -5
I found this funny, From an analysis she did of all the players: Not including myself or the confirmed dead. 7. Capybara - Likes to call people out a lot, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (as that does get discussion going), but it also reads a bit as "the lady doth protest too much".
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 10:58:40 GMT -5
I found this funny, From an analysis she did of all the players: Not including myself or the confirmed dead. 7. Capybara - Likes to call people out a lot, which isn't necessarily a bad thing (as that does get discussion going), but it also reads a bit as "the lady doth protest too much". I did find that sort of ironic, myself. (I hope that's why you found it funny)
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 11:12:23 GMT -5
This is an odd attack, Mad. Like. . . uh. . . didn't you vote for JSexton? Didn't many people? Like, everyone but me, apparently? Did you not think JSexton was scum, Mad? Why did you vote for him? I thought Nesta's (and everyone else's) arguments against JSexton were weak, but then again, I didn't vote for him. How do you resolve your own action there, Mad? I'm not getting a big scum vibe from Nesta, but then again you aren't helping us see what you're seeing with this winking and nudging and if I'm missing something massive. . . I am well aware you didn't vote for Jsex.Thanks for pointing that out. . . . [truncated to attend to issue at hand] Mad, to return to earlier toDay, may I ask what exactly you meant by this? Let's hear your theory about me. Humor my ego.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 11:15:04 GMT -5
My vote for Drain was similar(at least drain thought so) and look where that led. Or you could have helped bus drain to gain town cred and influence future lynches. I can't tell if you're being eccentric town or gutsy scum using your previous playstyle as cover, but your behavior is making less and less sense. FoS MadtheSwineI'm not sold on nesta's claim, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. My FoS on him stays, though, until I have more proof one way or the other. Correction,I misspoke... it wasn't my vote for drain, it was my vote for Kat that is similar...which led to the drain getting plugged.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 11:17:48 GMT -5
I am well aware you didn't vote for Jsex.Thanks for pointing that out. . . . [truncated to attend to issue at hand] Mad, to return to earlier toDay, may I ask what exactly you meant by this? Let's hear your theory about me. Humor my ego. I have issues with people that remind us that they didn't vote for a killed townie.That is all.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 17, 2007 11:25:18 GMT -5
Man... You ALL know my feelings on Dotchan by now....
But i'm going to hold off on this one, because i feel I've been kinda the only one going after her (all of Day 2 pretty much), and you guys seemed to get the newbie feel from her. So since then I've kinda been looking at her, and i guess trying to see her actions as a "newbie" kinda person. But i still can see it as possibly "the nicest scum ever".... So i guess i'm like Capy- convince me. Though i'll prolly need a lot less convincing. It's for that reason i hold off, because i admit i may be biased vs. our little Dotchan.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 11:36:29 GMT -5
Man... You ALL know my feelings on Dotchan by now.... But i'm going to hold off on this one, because i feel I've been kinda the only one going after her (all of Day 2 pretty much), and you guys seemed to get the newbie feel from her. So since then I've kinda been looking at her, and i guess trying to see her actions as a "newbie" kinda person. But i still can see it as possibly "the nicest scum ever".... So i guess i'm like Capy- convince me. Though i'll prolly need a lot less convincing. It's for that reason i hold off, because i admit i may be biased vs. our little Dotchan. Living players never FOS'ed by Dotchan 1. Diggit2. PygmyNever FOS'ed drain either, FWIW. Then there is always the non-vote in Day1. I am not exactly convinced yet either, one way or the other. I am gonna go look at what Roosh said in Day2.
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 17, 2007 11:40:54 GMT -5
Living players never FOS'ed by Dotchan 1. Diggit2. PygmyNever FOS'ed drain either, FWIW. Then there is always the non-vote in Day1. Ya know... I really REALLY hope that Dotchan IS newbie Scum. And that it really is simple.... That the smoking gun of evidence could be so simple as Dotchan having FOS'ed EVERYONE BUT her fellow scum. But that result would be so unlike these games, that it feels like only a wish. Though it does give me confidence in my Pygmy vote.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 11:41:48 GMT -5
Right now, I'm looking at two interesting points. 1. storyteller's retelling of "the passion of the drainbead". His emphasis was on the weird pairing of drainbead vs. Malacandra votes. What is funny to me now is that those votes didn't actually reflect any activity by cult at all. Which brings me to 2. Capybara's color-coded votes (especially for day 1). What's interesting is that, coupled with point 1, it seems to me that on Day 1 the Psychopaths either a. Mostly decided (very early at that) to sacrifice drainbead. In that case, most cultist would be in the group formed by storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf
b. Had already put their votes on several others and decided they couldn't move their votes safely. Or, maybe, they saw seesaw movement between Malacandra and drainbead and thought a last minute movement would suffice. In that case, we have a reduced number of suspects which consists of DiggitCamara, Malacandra, capybara, pygmyruggerI think theory b is more likely to be right. And since I already suspect pygmyrugger because of his actions late last Evening, I'll vote pygmyrugger
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 11:46:44 GMT -5
Living players never FOS'ed by Dotchan 1. Diggit2. PygmyDoes this make you more suspicious of her because you've been suspicious of them, or the other way around? And Diggitt, on preview I see your post and would like to subscribe to your newsletter except that I've been self-publishing a similar sheet myself for a while on a small overlooked vanity press (and I'd replace my name with yours)
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 11:47:25 GMT -5
And on reread I see you have both our names on there. Good man.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 11:48:40 GMT -5
Living players never FOS'ed by Dotchan 1. Diggit2. PygmyNever FOS'ed drain either, FWIW. Then there is always the non-vote in Day1. Ya know... I really REALLY hope that Dotchan IS newbie Scum. And that it really is simple.... That the smoking gun of evidence could be so simple as Dotchan having FOS'ed EVERYONE BUT her fellow scum. But that result would be so unlike these games, that it feels like only a wish. Though it does give me confidence in my Pygmy vote. Thinking back to my first game M1,(I had never played before the Dope games). I don't think I even acknowledge or replied to any of my fellow scum til waaay late in the game.I was terrified of even posting within 5 posts of them.
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Post by NAF1138 on Aug 17, 2007 11:59:48 GMT -5
Ya know... I really REALLY hope that Dotchan IS newbie Scum. And that it really is simple.... That the smoking gun of evidence could be so simple as Dotchan having FOS'ed EVERYONE BUT her fellow scum. But that result would be so unlike these games, that it feels like only a wish. Though it does give me confidence in my Pygmy vote. Thinking back to my first game M1,(I had never played before the Dope games). I don't think I even acknowledge or replied to any of my fellow scum til waaay late in the game.I was terrified of even posting within 5 posts of them. That is my feeling. It would be interesting to see that she has made that same newbie mistake. The other thing that I wanted to point out (although I know it was mentioned on Day 2) is her complete 180 in her playing style from Day 1. It feels sort of like she has a veteran scum players coaching her away from making scummy moves.
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Post by Blaster Master on Aug 17, 2007 12:03:58 GMT -5
I'm not sold on nesta's claim, but for now I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. My FoS on him stays, though, until I have more proof one way or the other. Why on earth would our real geniuses suffer a fake genius to live? Especially in a situation like the one we're in, where we need to catch scum today or be in terrible trouble at best? In the absence of a counterclaim - and I don't think one is coming - I can't understand FoS-ing nesta, and I'm one who went after him in the first place. The whole "I'm not sure if I want to believe this role claim, even though there's been no counterclaim and there's no good reason for the real role not to counter" thing is always odd to me. FTR, since the claim is verifiable, I think it is in our best interest to treat it as legit. We can cross the bridge of who's who if/when we encounter a counterclaim. But, because you asked the question, I can think of a couple scenarios (in which we could very well be) in which the geniuses might be hesitant to claim. So, for the sake of playing devil's advocate, let's suppose for a moment that nesta is false claiming: Now, based on the possibility, as you presented it, they could be worried there's 5 scum left and a single false lynch will end the game. Thus, if they do counter, it's a coin flip; hell, they could BOTH claim, and a second scum just comes up and turns it into a coinflip again. In this case, maybe they figure they KNOW a scum for sure, and maybe he'll inadvertently drop some evidence that will allow them to catch other scum. It's not a whole lot different if there's 4 scum left, where at this point, a strong chance at a mislynch, and further knowledge of the geniuses might seem like a worthy trade to the scum. It's not as dire, but they might have decided to play it safe. Or, maybe they WILL counter-claim, but are waiting to see if nesta will put his foot in his mouth first or use his confirmed position to do more overtly scummy things he normally couldn't get away with either to help support their counterclaim or possibly expose other scum. Even after saying all of that, dotchan, there will be plenty of time to go back and review his posts if/when there's a counterclaim, because at that time all of the focus of the town will be on him and the counter-claimant. Otherwise, IMO, it is a waste of time and energy to be FOSing someone that is confirmed absent a eventual possibility of a counter-claim.
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Post by diggitcamara on Aug 17, 2007 12:06:14 GMT -5
And on reread I see you have both our names on there. Good man. I reread myself, and saw I forgot to include a link to "the passion of the drainbead". And I also noticed that dotchan for one, didn't vote during that Day. Did I miss anyone else?
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 12:12:59 GMT -5
I think she was the one abstainee. Abstainer? Abstainant?
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 17, 2007 12:20:12 GMT -5
She abstained day 1, i abstained day 3. I can't remember if anyone else abstained like on day 2
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Post by RoOsh on Aug 17, 2007 12:45:56 GMT -5
Actually, I think Dotchan should have a chance to speak. Dotchan, since you're online.... The mic's all yours.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 12:51:15 GMT -5
Actually, I think Dotchan should have a chance to speak. Dotchan, since you're online.... The mic's all yours. Careful...don't get yourself FOS'ed.
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Post by Death By Irony on Aug 17, 2007 13:01:54 GMT -5
Y'know, it'd be funny if diggit and pygmy were the other two scum, because I know zip about their alignments. (Should I FoS then now so that I've officially suspected everybody in the game? ) I still have no idea what Roosh means when he suggests that I might be "nice scum". And NAF, I said it before, but I guess it bears repeating: I realized that I was playing too conservatively and I needed to go on the offensive, and I also got a ton of more free time in the form of sudden unemployment. Non Votes: *Day 1 - me *Day 2 - Blaster Master *Day 3 - storyteller, madtheswine, and Roosh (abstained and didn't post again until replies #259 and #260), round 1; GreedySmurf, round 2
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 13:11:15 GMT -5
Y'know, it'd be funny if diggit and pygmy were the other two scum, because I know zip about their alignments. (Should I FoS then now so that I've officially suspected everybody in the game? ) I still have no idea what Roosh means when he suggests that I might be "nice scum". And NAF, I said it before, but I guess it bears repeating: I realized that I was playing too conservatively and I needed to go on the offensive, and I also got a ton of more free time in the form of sudden unemployment. Non Votes: *Day 1 - me *Day 2 - Blaster Master *Day 3 - storyteller, madtheswine, and Roosh (abstained and didn't post again until replies #259 and #260), round 1; GreedySmurf, round 2 The "other two scum"?
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 13:12:26 GMT -5
Dotchan, I thought you thought there where 4 or 5 scum left.
Vote Dotchan
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Post by capybara on Aug 17, 2007 13:13:01 GMT -5
I would like to state for the record that I don't think Dotchan's non-vote on Day One means a thing, and all of this sudden new attention to her is starting to feel to me like railroading and obfuscation-- I sense scum involved and town that really wants some direction.
Town: Be Careful! Move slowly!
Yes, I'm pointing at You There (but not *you*, because you're not town).
I would *really* like us to be careful about avoiding speed lynches toDay. If there are 4 scum left, that means only 2 townmembers need to be led astray to hit the dreaded six votes.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Aug 17, 2007 13:13:57 GMT -5
That "other two scum" is pretty much an admission in my eyes.
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