|
Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 20, 2007 21:30:01 GMT -5
Dawn came and everyone started out to the Town Hall. But yet again a gruesome sight was there waiting for them.
Hanging from the tree outside, the same one they hung drainbead from, was the body of someone. Their face had turned totally BLUE from lack of oxygen.
Then again, blue was his natural color.
GreedySmurf, a Townie, has been hung out to dry.
--------------------------------------------------------
It is now Day.
Player list:
1. Blaster Master
2. Hal Briston Town 3. Storyteller0910
4. Malacandra is now NAF Psychopath
5. Hockey Monkey Therapist, Lover 6. MadtheSwine 7. Capybara
8. Drain Bead Psychopath 9. DiggitCamera
10. Kat Town, Lover 11. dotchan
12. GreedySmurf Town 13. Roosh
14. dnooman Genius
15. cowgirl Cupid 16. nesta 17. Pygmy Rugger
18. JSexton Crazy Townie
19. Mhaye Chia Bingo Manager[/
Nine players remain. Six votes to auto end Day.
OR..whoever has the most when Day ends naturally, which is on Wednesday at 12 NOON.
Have fun!
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 20, 2007 21:51:18 GMT -5
Day One
drainbead (8) - storyteller0910, Roosh, Mad The Swine, Blaster Master, GreedySmurf, dnooman, nesta, mhaye
GreedySmurf (5) - JSexton, Hal Briston, DiggitCamera, kat, Malacandra
Malacandra (4) - hockeymonkey, drainbead, cowgirl, capybara
Hal Briston (1) - pygmyrugger
Day 2
cowgirl (5) - dnooman, diggitcamara, Malacandra, Hal Briston, nesta
Roosh (4) - dotchan, cowgirl, pygmyrugger, Mad the Swine
Mad the Swine (2) - Storyteller0, capybara
Malacandra (1) - JSexton
diggitcamara (1) - GreedySmurf
dotchan (1) - Roosh
pygmyrugger (1) - Mhaye
Day 3 JSexton (4) - nesta, mhaye, diggitcamara, Malacandra
Malacandra (4) - JSexton, dnooman, capybara, Greedy
Mad the Swine (1) - Blaster
Mhaye(1) - Dotchan
Run off: Jsexton (9): Diggitt, Dotchan, Mal, Blaster, Mad, Nesta, Story, MHaye, Pygmy
Malacandra (2): Capybara, Dnooman
Day 4 dotchan (4) - NAF1138, Mad the Swine, Roosh, diggitcamara NAF1138 (4) - Capybara, pygmyrugger, nesta, dotchan Mad the Swine (1) - Blaster Master diggitcamara (1) - GreedySmurf
Tie Breaker NAF (6) - dotchan, storyteller0910, capybara, pygmyrugger, nesta, GreedySmurf dotchan (3) - Roosh, Mad the Swine, NAF
Right? Geniuses green for simplicity's sake.
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 20, 2007 21:52:49 GMT -5
And unfortunately the scum went for a kill that would give us little information. But it's something.
Sorry, Smurf! You did good.
|
|
Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 20, 2007 21:53:43 GMT -5
Wednesday? As in this coming Wednesday? *EDIT* Duplicated capybara's vote list. Editing to remove it so it doesn't take up space. Please don't smite me!
|
|
Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 20, 2007 21:54:33 GMT -5
...and I see capybara has beaten me to the punch.
|
|
Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 20, 2007 22:05:59 GMT -5
BTW, if I were scum, I would have just let the clock run out on the first vote instead of putting it into the runoff, or maybe even self-hammered with one last Shiney Magpie (tm) post.
More thoughts to come later.
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 20, 2007 22:20:42 GMT -5
I've been thinking Capy about the votes since the last Night.... And there are two names that just stand out to me. One really really more than the other. But now with Greedy dead, I'm worried. Because it really makes the one person i was suspicious of last night, REALLY REALLY SUSPICIOUS looking now. And so I'm thinking, what if scum killed Greedy for that reason? To make this other dude look suspicious. So i'm kinda hesitating. Cuz the guy i'm thinking of... now just looks flat out scummy. *pauses, and looks to the camera* But here's the thing. So i ask myself. What kinda scummy player would be that evil and that smart? Who would be the ONE guy on the list that would THINK in that sorta level? To make such a call and frame this one dude on the list that they KNOW looks suspicious, and they know he's not really scum, but he just looks REAL scummy? What kinda sick twisted Psychopath thinks like that?
And sadly... it's my #2 guy on my suspicion list. They're right next to each other on my chart. The two most suspicious. But one LOOKS flat out guilty. And the other... well the other is the guy that I would think would be most likely to pull that sorta wool over my eyes and make me think that the other guy is that guilty....
It's freakin' Eerie, right now. T'would be so cool if i wasn't actually IN this game, but I am. And so... I dunno, man.
Does ANYONE else get that feeling? I'll name my names later, but I just wanted to know, am I the only one getting chills here?
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 20, 2007 23:46:01 GMT -5
Wow. No one else, huh? oookay. Well. I'll post tomm morning then around 8am EST my 2 suspects then. :kicks the empty can:
|
|
|
Post by Greedy Smurf on Aug 20, 2007 23:57:38 GMT -5
I figure I get to make at least one undead post in the thread proper. Who would have thought the psycho's would have picked on poor little me with 2 genuises out in the open (no offense Capy & Nesta) So go get 'em townies. Hang them lunatics high on the yardarm Oh and Whoooooooooo - consider your asses officially haunted you psycho's!!
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 21, 2007 0:08:06 GMT -5
The fact that I have 211 more posts than you is a little unnerving, Greedy. =(
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 21, 2007 7:29:13 GMT -5
shit. Gotta go. So 2 names.
Diggit. Storyteller.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 21, 2007 8:17:31 GMT -5
I've been thinking Capy about the votes since the last Night.... And there are two names that just stand out to me. One really really more than the other. But now with Greedy dead, I'm worried. Because it really makes the one person i was suspicious of last night, REALLY REALLY SUSPICIOUS looking now. And so I'm thinking, what if scum killed Greedy for that reason? To make this other dude look suspicious. So i'm kinda hesitating. Cuz the guy i'm thinking of... now just looks flat out scummy. *pauses, and looks to the camera* But here's the thing. So i ask myself. What kinda scummy player would be that evil and that smart? Who would be the ONE guy on the list that would THINK in that sorta level? To make such a call and frame this one dude on the list that they KNOW looks suspicious, and they know he's not really scum, but he just looks REAL scummy? What kinda sick twisted Psychopath thinks like that? And sadly... it's my #2 guy on my suspicion list. They're right next to each other on my chart. The two most suspicious. But one LOOKS flat out guilty. And the other... well the other is the guy that I would think would be most likely to pull that sorta wool over my eyes and make me think that the other guy is that guilty.... It's freakin' Eerie, right now. T'would be so cool if i wasn't actually IN this game, but I am. And so... I dunno, man. Does ANYONE else get that feeling? I'll name my names later, but I just wanted to know, am I the only one getting chills here? Ok, Roosh, here's the thing. If you are scum, then you don't care about anything I'm about to say, so please disregard. But if you are town... From a dramatic standpoint, posts like this one are extremely entertaining. The whole "something's up but I'm not going to specify, just work it out on your own" deal is a nice literary device. But as a tactic for catching scum, especially when we have what is apparently the shortest Day of all time in which to do it, it kind of stinks. Because the reasoning in this post is vague. Greedy's death makes someone look suspicious. OK. I still oppose using Night kills in this fashion, because it is the very definition of a WIFOM situation, but I'll hear you out. Who is it? Why does Greedy's death make them suspicious? What, exactly, are you trying to say? But you don't tell us. Then you wait. For others to fill in the gaps in your reasoning, I guess. They don't. So you post two names - one of them is mine - with no clarification, no explanation, nothing at all. Now, obviously, this hurts me, and diggit, from the standpoint that it creates suspicion of us for no reason, suspicion that we can not answer or discuss. It's just: "Greedy's death makes me suspicious of you two." What defense could either of us bring against that, apart from: Ummm, OK?But it also hurts the town, because it gives them nothing to discuss. I mean, posit that I am scum (I'm not, but that's neither here nor there for the purposes of this discussion; suppose I am). Suppose you've caught me out, identified me. Your next step should be to convince others, yes? But if you don't present your reasons, then we all have nothing to discuss. At best the town will skip over your post as without content. At worst, some opportunistic scum will FoS you for posting suspicion with no reason, and then we waste the Day examining you instead of someone else. Which is a short way of saying: if you have an argument to make, for crying out loud, make it. Stop floating leads out there and expecting others to fill in the blanks. Unless you're scum, in which case this tactic is a good one for you, of course. It allows you to vaguely smudge players, then let someone else fill in the pesky details.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 21, 2007 8:28:18 GMT -5
shit. Gotta go. So 2 names. Diggit. Storyteller.Okay, I'm a little flummoxed by your manifesto. Which one do you think GreedySmurf's death implicates? On the obvious, it would be DiggitCamara, because GreedySmurf was voting for him; however, DiggitCamara was never in any sort of trouble. Or do you think it implicates your other candidate, Storyteller, because it implicates DiggitCamara? See, this is the danger of trying to read into the moves that the psychos make. If they did it to implicate or exonerate anyone, we can never tell if it was meant directly (ie, they meant to make DiggitCamara look bad) or they expected we'd realize that and do it indirectly (eg, they meant to make Storyteller look bad) or they meant it as subterfuge (eg, to draw attention away from someone else, like Dotchan, for instance). IOW, it's, at best, a three way WIFOM, that I think is impossible to determine without more information. However, I believe this whole discussion already happened on Day Two, right?
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 21, 2007 8:28:26 GMT -5
More generally:
Before we get to the really dirty work, a quick statement of the obvious:
There are nine players left in the game. Two - capybara and nesta - are Geniuses. That leaves seven lynch candidates for toDay:
Blaster Master Storyteller0910 MadtheSwine DiggitCamera dotchan Roosh Pygmy Rugger
One of these is the Doctor. My best guess is that, in the worst case, three of them are scum, and in the best case, two of them are scum.
Near as I can tell, we can definitely survive one mislynch. It is possible that we might be able to survive two, but we should play as if we cannot.
After a bit of consideration, it occurs to me that while the Town does not technically lose the game if the number of scum equal the number of Town, based on the rules as they've been applied so far, if such a situation arises we will lose anyway. If we get down to three town, three scum, during the Day, the three scum can simple all vote for the same townie. This would tip their hands, of course, but the best the Town could do would be to force a tie. Based on this ruleset, such a stalemate would result in a no-lynch for the Day. It would be impossible for us to ever kill scum. Thus, the Doctor managing a block would not, in fact, buy us an extra Day - I hereby reverse my reversal from yesterDay.
So there it is. Seven players, probably three scum. I strongly suggest that every single one of these unknowns gets some attention toDay - myself included. No myopic one-on-one arguments that lead to everyone picking sides and multiple players escaping notice.
Seven players, probably three scum.
I gotta go do some reading.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 21, 2007 8:31:19 GMT -5
NETA: And... I see Storyteller added the other part that I was just realized I forgot to add to my post.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 21, 2007 8:33:15 GMT -5
Damnit, Storyteller, you keep posting inbetween my posts!
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 21, 2007 8:44:14 GMT -5
hang on i'm back. I was gonna make a post at 8, but received a phone call telling me to go to the airport, so i just put up the names at least before I headed out. Lemme read you guys' post and then i'll explain my thoughts.
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 21, 2007 9:20:19 GMT -5
Ok, I think reading complex reasoning into 'why Greedy" is overinterpreting. This one seems pretty easy: He was a safe kill-- he hadn't been suspected of much recently, was being assumed as town by several, and his voting records don't help narrow things down much for us, unfortunately.
The scum probably assumed that one of the geniuses might or might not be protected and figured-- as the geniuses themselves had-- that there wasn't anything about the geniuses that was especially crucial, and town's town and go for the sure kill.
Town-- follow Story's advice and give everybody a look over, but don't let anyone else do all the work and hard thinking for you. That person with the neatly packaged shiny argument that you're too lazy to spot the contradicting evidence against may be scum.
So-- everybody get cracking. When you ride alone, you're riding with Hitler.
|
|
|
Post by storyteller0910 on Aug 21, 2007 9:25:49 GMT -5
Ok, I think reading complex reasoning into 'why Greedy" is overinterpreting. This one seems pretty easy: He was a safe kill-- he hadn't been suspected of much recently, was being assumed as town by several, and his voting records don't help narrow things down much for us, unfortunately. The scum probably assumed that one of the geniuses might or might not be protected and figured-- as the geniuses themselves had-- that there wasn't anything about the geniuses that was especially crucial, and town's town and go for the sure kill. There is one point to be made about the death of Greedy, in particular, though, quite apart from the reasons behind it. Day One of this game was most unusual, in that a scum died. We now know the affiliation of all three major candidates for lynching on that first Day, which should make studying the events of the Day more profitable. I think it's time to re-read Day One anew, and see what there is to see.
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 21, 2007 9:54:05 GMT -5
**WARNING** This is long, rambling, and Kinda not well thought out in terms of writing, I just wrote down my points, and then kinda kept thinking it through and So... sorry for the confusion**
Here's the thing, Last Night looking back through the charts I had one Idea for who I was suspicious of (the chart being the giant color-coded one that's been up there).
The name that stood out to me was Diggitcamera. Mostly, because the man's voting record seemed clean, but not really. He's never gotten behind a scum vote from day 1. Now the man could be really unlucky in his scumdar, but it just set off bells in my head. Day one: he votes for GreedySmurf (who's alignment I didn't know, but now we know is a townie). Day two: He is 2nd in the Cowgirl lynching, right before Malacandra. Day 3: The Man votes for JSexton. Stating that he does not find Malacandra the least bit suspicious. (Reply 94 on Day 3) Right before Malacandra also votes for Jsexton, but that's here nor there, except that this is one of the things that caused me to look at Diggit, since he's the only "unknown" name that has ALWAYS voted alongside NAFacandra even through to day 4.
-In the Runoff he is the first to vote for Jsexton (and defends Malacandra as well in Reply #112). To be fair, almost everyone voted for the guy, but still. Diggit seems to be a very staunch support of Malacandra throughout the game.
Day 4: The man votes alongside NAF again vs. Dotchan (And yes, alongside me.... This is one thing that's in favor of you Dotchan in my mind... If you're a townie, then It's likely that Scum would have been voting FOR you in order to save NAF. And since I know I'm not the scum-that leaves either Mad or Diggit, unless the scum felt like completely not supporting NAF. Or you're ALSO scum, Dotchan.
And then during the tiebreaker: Diggit chooses not to vote (I'm not sure why, if he was gone, or if he simply didn't like either choice), and actually that's a Q for you diggit: Why did you not vote during the tiebreaker for either Dotchan or NAF?
Because it's real easy to "lose" your name among the suspects list, I feel esp. with a non-vote. I myself am not up there as a non-voter during the Jsexton/Mhaye/Malacandra fiasco, and it's something I realize that's not good, but I was out for the week unfortunately. Dotchan was an absentee voter on Day 1, but people have chalked it up to her playing style at the time. So i guess my Q to you then is "why the non-vote from you?" esp. when you did have a current vote for Dotchan previously?
The comment about Greedy factoring into all this. Was that before Greedy died, my big "suspicious" person was Diggit after reviewing what Capy had been saying during the night (to look at the voting patterns).
But now with greedy dead: It just makes it painfully obvious in my mind that Diggit never voted for scum (from the Day 1 post, because maybe 2 scum HAD been caught under that thing, and they had, but 3 now is unlikely).... So where would a scum put his vote on day 1 if he didn't want to get rid of EITHER of his fellow scum in Malacandra OR drainbead?? -Well there's Diggit's vote for Greedy. And there's Pygmy's vote for Hal.
But it almost seems too obvious. Hence my lamentations last night. I feel like I'm being played by the scum. Because before dawn I was suspicious of Diggit. But now, its like there's a BIG SIGN saying LOOK AT DIGGIT to me.
That's why I was wondering if anyone else saw this?
~~Rambling begins HERE~~
I had named my FOS list yesterDay when I had said:
Roosh's Most Notorious List (I guess you can call it the FOS list): 1. PygmyRunner 2. Dotchan 3. StoryTeller 4. MadTheSwine 5. DiggitCam 6. Malacandra
(Reply #189 day 4 thread)
And i still believe the top 5 on that list probably contain 2 scummies. But where I don't know.... So here are my thoughts on them all (except diggit, who has kinda been outlined above, and i'll compare)
I was initially suspicious on day 4 of PygmyRunner and outlined my arguments against him there. -He's very similar to Diggit in his non-voting for scum patterns on Day 1-3. However: -but things that make him a lil' less scummier to me than Diggit: -- The fact is, on day 4, the man DID vote for NAF. He could have tied up the votes at 3-3, but he was instead the 4th voter for NAF, and so I would put him a lil' lower than I do Diggit.
Next on the list: Dotchan. I feel she's an inconsistent player. And I def. have campaigned against her now 2 days not back to back, but still. I always feel like I should give her the benefit of the doubt, but jeez... she's just inconsistent. And I tend to view her as anti-town. But the newbie-ness that people attribute to her could be whats at play, and my judgment could be wrong (in that i really want to be right, and so maybe that IS distracting me, and I'm seeing things i shouldn't see. Maybe I'm getting a false read from her. So i'll back off for now from her). (though her lil' slip of the tongue thing seemed to implicate pygmy, diggit, and her- and i'd be lying to you if i didn't say that's still in the back of my mind, but more so when i look at the other two than her now)
Next: MadtheSwine - This is a guy who also has the diggitproblem sorta, and My problem too. We didn't vote for NAFacandra. That does make us look scummier. And so I do have to look at him for it. The man also voted against me day 2, (which obv. to me is suspicious), and he was one of the "add on" votes against Jsexton. He didn't initially vote for Jsexton, but he did during the tiebreaker. But every person on my FOS list did that. So, i guess its something that makes you ALL look a lil' bit suspicious, but equally. And he does defend Mal here and there as well in that day.
But back to the Dotchan vote. He at least VOTED. (this is why Diggit goes up a lil' higher on my list) And Mad did vote on Day 1 for Drainbead. so i guess that's some townie cred, he was the 3rd vote for Drainbead.
Buuuut, and i guess this is linked with you too, storyteller. At this point, we can see the tail end of the Drainbead votes. And they're all town. The only ones that are in the air are Mine, STory, MadtheSwine, and BM.
Scum had to split their votes somewhere. And since all the Malacandra voters on day one were Capy, the lovers and Drainbead. It leaves 6 voters out there:
Us 4 above all voted for Drainbead. Diggit voted for Greedy. A townie. Pygmy voted for Hal. A townie. Dotchan voted for Noone.
So if I were scum voters, and I was stuck in that choice, what would I do? I'd split the votes out there. Two we know of: Malacandra voted for Greedy- a townie. Drainbead voted for Malacandra- a Scum.
Of the 3 highest vote getters, 2 were scum. So in my mind, if I was scum I'd wanna push for the NON-Scum. That of course was Greedy. And the only "unconfirmed" voter we have for him: DiggitCamera. (Again, why i'm suspicious of him. But I'm rambling...)
Back to my thoughts though: Here's the thing. Ignoring Diggit, that leaves 6 voters of which 1-2 could be scum 4 votes were for drainbead. So as much as I dislike that thought. It's in all likelyhood that there is scum among one of us 4: Storyteller Roosh MadtheSwine BM
Of those 4 names, I know the role of myself. So i have a list of 3 people in MY list to suspect. And of them, 2 of them I do find very suspicious. But. Here's my problem.
The StoryTeller Dilemma. (Or why i named you too, ST)
At this point. I'm biased. I can clearly see it. I trust you SO much, storyteller that i believe it's the wrong thing to do. You, in my mind, are bursting with townie-cred points. And that's bad. Cuz I should be distrustful of those seem like that, and its bad to name people that you explicitly trust like that. Why do I know this? Because YOU told me such. This whole game I feel as if you've kinda been a mentor in my thoughts, the thoughts I've had, are the thoughts that you tend to point out, and I find myself, going "yes... that's true. He's so right!" It's one reason I disliked being accused by you back in the early days, I kinda took it personal, because i felt like I trusted you, but you didn't trust me and that sorta hurt my feelings.
Hell, even now you've just pointed out to me ways on thinking (at night- don't do these pairings and such, don't just name people like this), and I do value your advice.
But you are WAAY WAAAY too townie to me. That's why I named you, storyteller. Because I think at this point in the game, I'm biased into thinking you're so town, that I'm suspicious of MYSELF for it. That's why I named you, and why you'll always be a suspect now.
You'd be the #1 candidate of those 5 people (MadtheSwine being #2) for person to most likely manipulate me. I feel that you have great ideas, great thoughts, and I tend to naturally agree with you without thinking it all the way through. And for that, I feel you're the person most likely to manipulate my vote if scum were to play such a strategy.
You and Mad have given yourself town-cred with the early calling out of Drainbead, and then sticking with it (when you could just have been trying to toss out a vote, but didn't expect it to gain moment like it did-this is more towards you ST, than Mad, but same applies), and from then though just played as the "Ever-helpful-townie". If you are playing as such, you've got me hook, line, and sinker.
That's why i put your name down. Because I can't see if you're scum, because i'm blinded by your townieness (it's the opposite of the dotchan problem. WithDotchan I feel like i am looking for things to prove she's guilty, but with StoryTeller i automatically start defending you in my mind- and THAT'S BAD. Why? Cuz YOU TOLD ME SO on day 1).
And for that Reason, I find myself listening to YOUR advice (which... if you were scum, would be the perfect thing that you'd want me to do): I won't reason out the night posts, and I won't factor in the Greedy kill, (which if i had reasoned it out, i feel it would be the reason for me to suspect you, Story, because i feel of the peep on that 5 person list, you're the most likely to "bait" a person into thinking about Greedy's death, while playing the townie role and saying "don't!")
So if I don't factor in the greedy kill, I'm gonna go with my initial suspicions based on the stuff I had said before rambling (mostly just the voting stuff). This vote isn't in stone, but it's the one i wanted to start the day with:
Vote DiggitCamera.
The Fos List Updated: 1. DiggitCamera 2. PygmyRunner 3. MadTheSwine 4. Dotchan 5. StoryTeller. 6. Malacandra Scum
|
|
|
Post by Hal Briston on Aug 21, 2007 9:54:21 GMT -5
Quick haunting just to get my sig link into Day 5.
Hey, anyone wanna add that link to their sig, so I don't have to haunt you guys every Day?
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 21, 2007 9:58:25 GMT -5
There is one point to be made about the death of Greedy, in particular, though, quite apart from the reasons behind it. Day One of this game was most unusual, in that a scum died. We now know the affiliation of all three major candidates for lynching on that first Day, which should make studying the events of the Day more profitable. I think it's time to re-read Day One anew, and see what there is to see. To be honest, I'd been jumping the gun (actually I think we all had on the nerd board) and had pegged Greedy as town some time ago so we've been working under that assumption for a while and had been looking at Day 1 with interest. it the basis for wild-ass theory I posted yesterday, which could use some tinkering.
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 21, 2007 9:59:45 GMT -5
So-- everybody get cracking. When you ride alone, you're riding with Hitler. It's really late for me, and I need sleep.... But I have NO idea what that means. Like... aren't you saying we SHOULD think for ourselves? How did Hitler start riding along with us if we're ALONE? ( )?? Or am i overthinking this one?
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 21, 2007 10:02:07 GMT -5
Holy Crap, Roosh... I'm going to have wait to read and respond to that monster post after lunch.
|
|
RoOsh
FGM
Former BatMod
[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
Posts: 284
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by RoOsh on Aug 21, 2007 10:02:58 GMT -5
Sorry. But i just wanted to post here and say that I love my Insanity level now. i find it utterly HILARIOUS! good lord i need to go to bed.... -_-
|
|
|
Post by capybara on Aug 21, 2007 10:09:11 GMT -5
Roosh, not to belabour a point that you yourself make, but how can part of your reasoning about Dot and Diggit be about their non-votes when you yourself have non-votes (yes, I know "you had good reasons" but you can't assume that Diggit wasn't simply absent).
And on the jedi-mind-trickery of Storyteller. . . he's been posting a lot of useful stuff, but hasn't been doing a lot of leading people to voting in a particular direction. If he's secret wicked lord at least he's being passive about it.
Roosh-- who did you vote for yesterday? Why? What/who reinforced your feelings? What/who convinced you that you were right all along? I think someone's indeed playing Jedi mind tricks on you but it ain't Storyteller.
|
|
|
Post by diggitcamara on Aug 21, 2007 11:00:34 GMT -5
(snip) The name that stood out to me was Diggitcamera. Mostly, because the man's voting record seemed clean, but not really. He's never gotten behind a scum vote from day 1. Now the man could be really unlucky in his scumdar, but it just set off bells in my head. Day one: he votes for GreedySmurf (who's alignment I didn't know, but now we know is a townie). Day two: He is 2nd in the Cowgirl lynching, right before Malacandra. Day 3: The Man votes for JSexton. Stating that he does not find Malacandra the least bit suspicious. (Reply 94 on Day 3) Right before Malacandra also votes for Jsexton, but that's here nor there, except that this is one of the things that caused me to look at Diggit, since he's the only "unknown" name that has ALWAYS voted alongside NAFacandra even through to day 4. -In the Runoff he is the first to vote for Jsexton (and defends Malacandra as well in Reply #112). To be fair, almost everyone voted for the guy, but still. Diggit seems to be a very staunch support of Malacandra throughout the game. Day 4: The man votes alongside NAF again vs. Dotchan (And yes, alongside me.... This is one thing that's in favor of you Dotchan in my mind... If you're a townie, then It's likely that Scum would have been voting FOR you in order to save NAF. And since I know I'm not the scum-that leaves either Mad or Diggit, unless the scum felt like completely not supporting NAF. Or you're ALSO scum, Dotchan. And then during the tiebreaker: Diggit chooses not to vote (I'm not sure why, if he was gone, or if he simply didn't like either choice), and actually that's a Q for you diggit: Why did you not vote during the tiebreaker for either Dotchan or NAF? Because it's real easy to "lose" your name among the suspects list, I feel esp. with a non-vote. I myself am not up there as a non-voter during the Jsexton/Mhaye/Malacandra fiasco, and it's something I realize that's not good, but I was out for the week unfortunately. Dotchan was an absentee voter on Day 1, but people have chalked it up to her playing style at the time. So i guess my Q to you then is "why the non-vote from you?" esp. when you did have a current vote for Dotchan previously?
(snip) But now with greedy dead: It just makes it painfully obvious in my mind that Diggit never voted for scum (from the Day 1 post, because maybe 2 scum HAD been caught under that thing, and they had, but 3 now is unlikely).... So where would a scum put his vote on day 1 if he didn't want to get rid of EITHER of his fellow scum in Malacandra OR drainbead?? -Well there's Diggit's vote for Greedy. And there's Pygmy's vote for Hal. But it almost seems too obvious. Hence my lamentations last night. I feel like I'm being played by the scum. Because before dawn I was suspicious of Diggit. But now, its like there's a BIG SIGN saying LOOK AT DIGGIT to me. (snip) I'm not going to address the whole post, but there are a couple of points I'd like to address: 1. Why didn't I post during the runoff? Simple: Look at this post2. Look, again, at my voting record. Look at the order in which I and Malacandra/NAF voted. (last Day excepted) Looks to me like Mal... waited for my votes. NAF, for some reason, didn't agree with that tactic and voted before I did. Anyway, I doubt we'll find two psychopaths voting consistently for the same people. 3. Look at the Day 1 voting record again. drainbead (known scum) voted early and left her vote on Malacandra (fellow scum), even though he was in danger of being lynched too. 4. My "defenses" of Malacandra: Again, a simple matter of extrapolating past behavior into this game. I had never seen a Day 1 where 2 scum were close to being lynched. And so I assumed we saw a "counter-balancing" vote for Malacandra, which, of course, meant Malacandra wasn't scum.
|
|
|
Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 21, 2007 12:21:37 GMT -5
diggitcamera (1) - Roosh.
Also, VERY IMPORTANT. I made a mistake in the times that Day ends. I thought it was Sunday yesterday at the time I ended Night. Heh, it wasn't. So rather then just give you all less than 26 more hours to vote and stuff, Day now ends Thursday at 11am.
That is about a full 48 hours away, or two full days.
|
|
Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Death By Irony on Aug 21, 2007 12:35:33 GMT -5
Day One's Voting and FoS/unFoS action
...more to come later.
|
|
Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
Posts: 0
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Post by Blaster Master on Aug 21, 2007 12:55:42 GMT -5
This is partially in response to some of Roosh's thoughts, and some of my own. Below is the list of lynchables, that is dead people minus the claimed geniuses, since I think a counter-claim ain't gonna happen at this point:
1. Blaster Master 3. Storyteller0910 6. MadtheSwine 9. DiggitCamera 11. dotchan 13. Roosh 17. Pygmy Rugger
Now, since Roosh hinted at it, I'm going to go ahead and bring it up again, since we now have enough information to make it worth while... my Pseudo Random Hypothesis, namely, I believe scum will try to distribute themselves in a way that looks random, but isn't necessarily consistent with what one would expect with random results.
Now, assuming there's two or three scum left, looking at the voting patterns, we can guess that there's probably no more than one on the Drainbead wagon, and there's either one or two scum between Diggit, Dotchan, and Pygmy. Now, IMO, this analysis is useless as far as the Drainbead votes go because that's a 1/4 chance of nailing scum there, when a blind shot at the lynchables is 2/7 or 3/7.
So if we assume for a moment that there's only two scum left, and one is on the Drainbead wagon, I'd have a hard time imagining that Diggit would be the other, simply because, under PRH, they wouldn't deliberately cluster, which means I'd suspect that a scum lies between Pygmy and Dotchan. Now, it's hard to say who this looks worse for, because both Pygmy's and Dotchan's votes on Day One raised eyebrows. However, I did see a believable explanation for why Dotchan didn't vote Day One (I forget who mentioned it), but that perhaps she was waiting to slip in a vote at the last minute for GreedySmurf, but was unsure what to do when MHaye voted for Drainbead late at the last minute. So that's a mark against her. As for Pygmy, I don't recall having seen any believable explanation from him for voting for Hal, so I'd like to hear from him. So, unless I see a good explanation, I think that looks equally bad for both of them, but I think it looks good for Diggit.
Now, if we assume for a moment that there's three scum left, and one is on the Dradbead wagon, that means that 2/3 of Diggit, Pygmy, and Dotchan are scum. If we look at yesterday's votes, both Pygmy and Dotchan voted for NAF, which put him into the tie, so I find it hard to believe that BOTH are scum, so I'd be inclined to believe that, in this case, Diggit and one between Pygmy and Dotchan are the two scum. So, if Pygmy is scum and Dotchan is not, he could have easily, and justifiably switched his vote to Dotchan, or to one of the other candidates, and gotten her lynched. But if Dotchan is scum, I think things make a little more sense, so hear me out... Since both NAF and Dotchan are scum and the only two with any real chance of being lynched, perhaps the scum decided to try a gambit: have her follow her "oops, I'm a clueless townie" act, vote to save her own neck, and force a tie. Then, they pretty much stay out of it (interestingly, she stays quiet too, not unlike Drainbead and NAF) and let's the town decide for itself who looks scummy, which has a way of exonerating the other. IOW, I think this scenario looks bad for Dotchan and Diggit.
So, if this is accurate, I'd FOS in this order Dotchan, Pygmy, and very little on Diggit. So, I'll go ahead and vote Dotchan, and say, if she isn't scum, then I'm quite confident Pygmy is. If she is scum, I'm confident Pygmy isn't, and Diggit's scumminess seems to ride on whether we think there was four or five scum to begin with, but if Dotchan's slip is accurate, it would seem to mean no, and that Diggit probably isn't scum with her.
My analysis on the Drainbead voters to follow...
|
|