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Post by bufftabby on May 5, 2009 18:05:43 GMT -5
Sorry again for not being around (my damn replacement blackberry was a bum too--waiting on round 2 to be shipped), but I'm somewhat caught up, and it seems pretty clear that either Nanook or mhaye are scum. For now, I'm going with a
Vote: Nanook
I'm having a hard time believing in multiple investigators, although it is possible. I am wondering if perhaps Nanook was the main investigator, and was recruited, activating a backup detective? Just a thought.
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Post by Gir! on May 5, 2009 21:23:50 GMT -5
First Official Day 5 vote count:
MHaye (2) – Nanook, paul Nanook (4)- pedescribe, FCOD, MHaye, bufftabby
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Post by KidVermicious on May 6, 2009 0:38:45 GMT -5
I said "I'm not liking the odds of having two cops, I'm not liking the timing of the claim, and I'm not liking that it's MHaye, arguably the scariest player left in the game, who was fingered."
Been thinking on it and I take back that last. I know scum would never do that, but I think if I were getting ready to bus a Town for the win I'd pick somebody vulnerable, and I don't know that MHaye is necessarily vulnerable in that regard.
I dunno.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 6, 2009 0:44:12 GMT -5
Goddammit.
After Nanooks post today, I was almost sure he was scum. I expected that to be a tough row to hoe, and I'm a little surprised how his wagon has gone. Only Paul has gone with him, Bill did then jumped off...
I'm conflicted as hell, but I think the utter lack of anybody defending Nanook means he's Town. Scum doesn't bus Town unless they've got a hard target, which they don't, or unless we're at lylo, and if we were, I'd expect a more vigorous defense of a scum Nanook.
I reserve the right to change my mind again 5 minutes from now.
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Post by BillMc on May 6, 2009 7:34:36 GMT -5
I'm conflicted as hell, but I think the utter lack of anybody defending Nanook means he's Town. Scum doesn't bus Town unless they've got a hard target, which they don't, or unless we're at lylo, and if we were, I'd expect a more vigorous defense of a scum Nanook. now. Yeah, this is clear as mud. On one hand we're suffering from a severe lack of alien corpses, so maybe Nanook is an Alien trying to bandwagon Mhaye - but by the same argument, the Alien's haven't lost anyone - so they don't have a lot to gain by a bussing. Conversely, if the Alien's have been recruiting, then they must have a sizeable mob and be close to lylo, so they could afford to vote en-masse for Nanook to save Mhaye. This is feeling horribly like a coin flip
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Post by shaggy on May 6, 2009 7:58:20 GMT -5
Hey everyone, I went back and did a post anlysis of mhaye . And there were a few posts that I do find a bit odd. psychopathgame.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=wat&action=display&thread=869&page=7#44838My problem with this post was the part of both claimed vanilla but since neither voted each other this cast’s doubt on their claim. Now I dunno about others, but I am just not following this, why is there doubt because they do not vote each other? Would this not to me mean that it is more plausible that they are true claims? After all I cannot remember ever actually seeing “counter” vanilla claims before. You also go onto say IF you had to pick between the 2, you would pick paul . this becomes more important I think latter as you will see. psychopathgame.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=wat&action=display&thread=869&page=9#44902This is where you say hawk’s argument is plausible. This is more evident in the next day, as you will soon see. psychopathgame.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=wat&action=display&thread=869&page=10#44956Think’s paul is likely an alien but votes abstain. Here is my problem in BS to English that means votes for no lynch basically. And this to me is a very anti-town thing to do. Why? Cause this is mafia people, it is our job to try and lynch the scum, not say awe cute scummy, let’s all hold hands in a circle and sing Kumbaya. So by choosing not to vote, you are essentially in my opinion choosing to not take place inof of the vital part's of the game. psychopathgame.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=wat&action=display&thread=888&page=3#45688your basically saying your sticking with a cap vote but your happy with a hawk lynch cause you are suspicious of him. The thing with this is, yesterday you said above his argument was plausible. So how is his argument plausible yet now lynch worthy? This brings me to my final thoughts. Nanook may not post a lot, but he did put a lot of thought and game driven content into them. He put theories out there and a fresh perspective on things. You though I do have to say, a lot more posts but most of them is just going along with what ever most of the people are saying. Even the suspicion on pede for example you end up saying unless we catch him in a lie, there is nothing there. So basically I am trying to say, you have a lot of words with not much there. I am sorry just I see this nice big post’s but most of them are long-winded ways of simply agreeing with what others have said. I just don’t see anything “new” being added to the pool. No putting your neck out there and hoping it works out. That and the post’s and voting and the abstain from voting, that you have done has successfully created a huge amount of plausible deniability. Like the “if” for mitch or paul . So if both end up dead and both are town, it does not come back to you, why? Cause you said “if” not they are. Hence plausible deniability. Now I could be way off and I could be verry wrong, which I usually am but this game is about access the situation and then taking the risk and hoping it works out. So based on looking at all of nanook’s posts and your post’s I am sorry but I am inclined to sway his way. So I am going to take the risk and stick my neck out and hope this works out. Sorry up front if I am an idiot here and wrong. vote mhaye
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Trepa Mayfield
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Post by Trepa Mayfield on May 6, 2009 10:45:00 GMT -5
Gaah! I don't know anymore...
I'm so confused.
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Post by BillMc on May 6, 2009 12:02:01 GMT -5
I reserve the right to change my mind again 5 minutes from now. After reading Shaggy's comments, I'm inclined to go with my original thoughts. So: Vote: mhaye You haven't voted either way, so you know hold the casting vote.
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Post by Almost Human on May 6, 2009 13:53:32 GMT -5
I reserve the right to change my mind again 5 minutes from now. After reading Shaggy's comments, I'm inclined to go with my original thoughts. So: Vote: mhaye [/color] You haven't voted either way, so you know hold the casting vote.[/quote] Huh! No pressure Kid. Uncool Bill - I think it's pretty clear nobody's finding it easy to make a decision toDay.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 6, 2009 17:18:52 GMT -5
You haven't voted either way, so you know hold the casting vote. You're a fucker. And I mean that in the nicest way possible.
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Post by Trepa Mayfield on May 6, 2009 19:49:16 GMT -5
I reserve the right to change my mind again 5 minutes from now. After reading Shaggy's comments, I'm inclined to go with my original thoughts. So: Vote: mhaye [/color] You haven't voted either way, so you know hold the casting vote.[/quote] Of course, if KidV is an alien, then we're all screwed.
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Post by BillMc on May 6, 2009 21:18:53 GMT -5
Uncool Bill - I think it's pretty clear nobody's finding it easy to make a decision toDay. Uncool that I voted MHaye? Uncool that I voted before KidV? Uncool that I didn't wait till after KidV had voted and possibly held the deciding vote myself? Uncool that I've effectively given KidV the deciding vote? You're a fucker. And I mean that in the nicest way possible. It's a dirty job, but someones gotta do it :-) Of course, if KidV is an alien, then we're all screwed. There is that possibility. It's a coin flip.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 6, 2009 22:44:45 GMT -5
Did I miss something? I've got MHaye at three votes and Nanook at four... and the tiebreaker goes to the first to the line, right?
Unless one of you changes your vote, I couldn't swing this if I wanted to.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 6, 2009 22:46:25 GMT -5
A thought occured to me earlier... the fact that Temple hasn't spoke up by now means there were only two of them, or they've been recruited. I'm leaning towards the latter.
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Post by BillMc on May 7, 2009 3:04:05 GMT -5
Did I miss something? I've got MHaye at three votes and Nanook at four... and the tiebreaker goes to the first to the line, right? Unless one of you changes your vote, I couldn't swing this if I wanted to. I make it four a piece MHaye (4) – Nanook, paul, Shaggy, BillMc Nanook (4)- pedescribe, FCOD, MHaye, bufftabby
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Post by NAF1138 on May 7, 2009 8:45:30 GMT -5
Did I miss something? I've got MHaye at three votes and Nanook at four... and the tiebreaker goes to the first to the line, right? Unless one of you changes your vote, I couldn't swing this if I wanted to. In this game a tie means no lynch. I will do an official vote count later, I have to go to work.
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Post by Nanook on May 7, 2009 9:20:40 GMT -5
In this game a tie means no lynch. I will do an official vote count later, I have to go to work. Really? Then you might want to review what happened at the end of Yesterday.
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Post by Nanook on May 7, 2009 9:41:18 GMT -5
Not to mention the posted game rules Mr. NAF. Stop trying to confuse us, especially so close to the deadline.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 7, 2009 10:13:37 GMT -5
Not to mention the posted game rules Mr. NAF. Stop trying to confuse us, especially so close to the deadline. Sorry. Don't listen to anything I post before 7am pacific time. It isn't me posting those things, it's the pre-coffee NAF monster. Carry on.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 7, 2009 12:55:14 GMT -5
Did I miss something? I've got MHaye at three votes and Nanook at four... and the tiebreaker goes to the first to the line, right? Unless one of you changes your vote, I couldn't swing this if I wanted to. I make it four a piece MHaye (4) – Nanook, paul, Shaggy, BillMc Nanook (4)- pedescribe, FCOD, MHaye, bufftabby Yeah, I missed Shaggy's vote. Dammit.
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 7, 2009 13:00:26 GMT -5
I started a post looking at some issues that arose while I was typing my last missive, but then got decoyed away by the drama that was Dr. Horrible Mafia. Now I'm free to get back to this game. Thinking of the Mod comments about Captain Pinkies' roleclaim first, because it affects what I was thinking upthread. NAF's statement that no rules have been broken does show that what appears to be a role PM isn't – it is either a paraphrase or made up out of whole cloth. The big issue, though, isn't the flavour, but the claimed win condition. Was Captain Pinkies making that up? If yes, then he is hiding the true wincon (which I discussed earlier); if not then it is a paraphrase which conveys the basics of the Temple wincon. We do have to ask, if Captain Pinkies' claimed wincon is made up, whether the Temple is the recruiting faction. If it is, only one deduction is on shaky ground – the Temple may have only a limited recruitment power to bolster their numbers. In which case I have to say that Nanook's action makes no sense at all. On to Nanook's comments. Nanook made a lengthy post upthread (post D05.021, linked for your convenience.) Nanook asks what, if he is some variety of nonTown role, his motive was for saving Paul Yesterday, Assuming that Nanook is nonTown (and I've already discussed in D05.024 above why I don't believe he is Town), there are two possibilities; Nanook and Paul are in the same team,or they are not. If they are in the same team, the reason is obvious; the train on Paul looked as if it was finally going to succeed, and rather than hope some Townsperson comes to your aid this time decided to get him off the hook. If they are not, Nanook could be “buying a vote.” By claiming that Paul is Town, if Paul really is Town, then Nanook inspires a little bit of trust in Paul. It's natural to trust a player who claims you're Town when you really are. It's cynical old so-and-sos like me who'd look at that as a possible “snuggle”, and vote along with them when they point a finger in the next few Days. If that was Nanook's motive, then it seems to have borne fruit already. Nanook then asks why he would sacrifice a mislynch Yesterday, only to bus a Townie Today and throw his cred away (and, following the revelation of my alignment, get lynched Tomorrow). Scum Nanook doing this makes sense in only one case – that they buy enough time doing this to win no matter what happens. The issue to understand is that a successful recruitment advances the recruiting team further towards its goal than a kill does. If we are at a 6/4 gamestate, then a mislynch followed by a kill puts the game at 4/4, which may or may not win the game for the Aliens, depending on the exact wording of the Aliens wincon . If the Aliens recruit, they win – the game goes to 4/5. If the game is currently 7/3, and the Aliens force a mislynch Today followed by a successful recruitment, we start Day 6 at 5/4 and almost certainly have an exposed Alien to lynch. A successful recruitment on Night 6 takes us to 4/4. If the game is not over then, it's certainly at LyLo. If the game is at 8/2 right now, then this gambit can't certainly put the Aliens in a winning position, and would therefore cost them too much. This brings up a point. Nanook claims that a 6/4 gamestate “is not LyLo.” This is only true if the Alien's wincon is that they must outnumber all other factions combined. It's dangerous to assume anything other than worst case here, so such analysis has to assume that the Aliens wincon is to equal or exceed nonAlien numbers. If that is the case, 6-4 is Lylo. We've already seen that a mislynch followed by a death results in parity of numbers. We have (absent evidence to the contrary) to assume that the Alien's wincon is to equal or exceed nonAlien numbers. That could be a simple mistake, or it could be designed to lull his enemies into a false sense of security. This post has reached the one-page mark, so I think I'm going to break here and discuss Shaggy's case against me in a separate post.
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Post by Nanook on May 7, 2009 13:24:13 GMT -5
So I'm still waiting for an actual argument that I'm scum. Every single one that's been posted so far has started with the assumption that I'm scum and tried to retrofit my actions to fit that mold. The only person who has objectively looked at me and Mhaye is Shaggy, and I'd like to point out exactly who it is he's voting for.
Your argument for why I saved Paul and then am bussing you fails on a major point. Why did no one die over Night? Why put this huge plan in motion to build cred when it basically requires a kill last Night? Why then follow through on said plan when the kill failed to occur? And really, the biggest one is, if us scum are in as good a position as you seem to be positing, why take the risk AT ALL? Someone had already died and been revealed as a Private Investigator, whatever that is(personally, I'm thinking it's a Watcher or Tracker role. I have no real reason for it, since I can't find any mention of the role on any of the major Mafia sites, but it would fit with what a PI generally is IRL.) The Aliens are in a strong position, with none dead, maybe a recruitment still in their pocket, and we decide to throw it away by false claiming Detective with a maybe, maybe not investigative role already dead. In case you didn't notice, Roosh isn't in this game. When I actually am scum, like Smash Brothers, I'm not a fan of the huge risk plays. This play, if it fails, basically throws the game away. Suddenly I'm exposed, Paul is exposed, anyone that interacted with us is exposed. And for what? A chance to maybe, possibly, end the game, assuming that the kill isn't blocked/our recruitment doesn't fail. You know how people like to talk about "Scum would never do that" as a bad thing, that people assume things that they shouldn't? There is one thing you generally shouldn't assume, and that is that the scum are stupid. The amount of things that would have to break just right for this plan, of me being scum and bussing you and hoping to win on the spot, is huge. It would require the scum team to be stupid. A scum team that up until Today hadn't lost a single member. That doesn't sound like a stupid scum team to me.
This scenario especially is terrible. You're positing a 3 man scum team to start, with multiple recruitments in an 18 person game with a third party team of at least 2 members, probably 3. That doesn't strike me as paticularly balanced, especially with the number of vanilla's we've seen already.
If instead you assume it didn't start out with 3 scum, and they recruited their way there instead, then you're basically saying the Mods of this game are bastard mods. While they did in fact state that there was some form of recruitment in this game, I fully believe that if it had been more full on recruitment ala the Dope The Mob is Recruiting game, they would stated as such up front. Further, last Night was the first Night was had without at least 1 kill. That would mean that either we have a SK, which seems stupidly overpowered in a game with a full recruiting scum team, or that the scum could both kill AND recruit in the same Night. Which is also stupidly overpowered.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 7, 2009 13:31:26 GMT -5
MHaye (4) – Nanook, paul, Shaggy, BillMc Nanook (4)- pedescribe, FCOD, MHaye, bufftabby
Nanook hit 4 first.
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 7, 2009 14:41:53 GMT -5
Shaggy's vote for me comes after he spent some time analysing my posts in D05.035. He says he finds a few posts “odd” and proceeds to explain why. Most of them are stretches that involve misinterpreting what I actually said. Let's take a look at what he's highlighted. Shaggy's first accusation, found in D02.208, is that I might be Alien because we disagree over the evaluation of Paul and Moody's refusal to vote for each other. This is tantamount to claiming that I'm Alien because I disagree with him, a position which is almost entirely without merit. Players can legitimately have disagreements on who is nonTown while still both being Town themselves. Then there was that bit about “counter-vanilla” claims. No-one suggested (certainly not me) that Moody's and Paul's claims were mutually exclusive. If there is one role that is likely to occur in multiples it's a vanilla Townsperson. Second is D02.250. He asserts that I found Hawkeyeop's argument “plausible”. This ignores the thrust of my post completely – that the suggestion is plausible on the surface, but when looked at carefully has gaping flaws. The whole third paragraph is devoted to why I think the suggestion is wrongThird, D02.282, in which I abstain. Guilty as charged. This meant, in the context of the gamestate at the time, two things; that I did not think the case against Paul was strong enough for a vote (there was no case against Moodymitchy) and secondly that I had not found an acceptable alternative candidate. I've abstained before in similar situations (see Day 1 of Skrull Planet, in which I refuse to vote for either Molefan or Peekercpa). Lastly, D03.073, in which he builds on his misunderstanding of D02.250 to allege that, although in Day 2 I find Hawkeyeop's argument “plausible”, in Day 3 I'm suspicious of him. As we've seen, I was less convinced of Hawkeyeop's arguments than Shaggy seems to realise. Also, it was writing that post that caused my suspicion of Hawk to rise, because I reviewed what I knew of his playing style while drafting the post. More worrying to me, though, is that he seems to have made up his mind before writing this post. Consider D05.017. His stated intention is that the post be a springboard on who to vote for Tomorrow. Here's the first paragraph. well i have reread the entire game so far, and copied every post that raised my eye brow. well I tried to exclude ones that have been ripped to death by others commenting on it. With this being said i think I will vote today for mhaye but want this post to be a good idea of tomorrow who I may verry well vote for and why. The 2 people I find the most supicious at the moment based on what I can read has been kidV and pede . sorry guy, just a few post's have kinda got me eye brow raising. Shaggy came into Today intending to vote me, and failed to even think of reviewing the possibility that Nanook might be lying. It's only in D05.019 that he even thinks about the possibility that I might be falsely accused. He did review Nanook's posts, in D05.026 (as he says, this would not take long since Nanook's posting pattern is notoriously low quantity, although usually he packs some meat into his posts). Shaggy's analysis of the Town investigator role (a lose-lose situation) overlooks the fact that Nanook's position is the result of having only one living investiagee in the first three Days – which may be bad luck, or may be very convenient if he is in fact an Alien. Or, in this game, a mixture of both, if Nanook was, as I suspect, recruited midgame.) I think Shaggy will be worth a closer look Tomorrow.
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Post by shaggy on May 7, 2009 17:31:46 GMT -5
So I'm still waiting for an actual argument that I'm scum. Every single one that's been posted so far has started with the assumption that I'm scum and tried to retrofit my actions to fit that mold. The only person who has objectively looked at me and Mhaye is Shaggy who would have thought, the guy to be lynched the last 3 games for not being objective, aparently is. Or atleast I have learned my lesson anyways. Shaggy's first accusation, found in D02.208, is that I might be Alien because we disagree over the evaluation of Paul and Moody's refusal to vote for each other. This is tantamount to claiming that I'm Alien because I disagree with him, a position which is almost entirely without merit. Players can legitimately have disagreements on who is nonTown while still both being Town themselves. Then there was that bit about “counter-vanilla” claims. No-one suggested (certainly not me) that Moody's and Paul's claims were mutually exclusive. Here is the quote this comes from: Now I dunno about anyone else but why vote each other for both claiming vanilla and why be suspicious of them because they did not, if neigther of there claim has anything to do with the other? Which they would not have to do with the other unless they are mutual. Second is D02.250. He asserts that I found Hawkeyeop's argument “plausible”. This ignores the thrust of my post completely – that the suggestion is plausible on the surface, but when looked at carefully has gaping flaws. The whole third paragraph is devoted to why I think the suggestion is wrong But if it was wrong that day, then why not vote that day for him? Maybe it is just me, but if it is wrong the one day and still wrong the next, and you vote him the next for being wrong, then why not the first day you felt he was wrong? Maybe I am just not seeing things the way you do. sorry. Third, D02.282, in which I abstain. Guilty as charged. This meant, in the context of the gamestate at the time, two things; that I did not think the case against Paul was strong enough for a vote (there was no case against Moodymitchy) and secondly that I had not found an acceptable alternative candidate. I've abstained before in similar situations (see Day 1 of Skrull Planet, in which I refuse to vote for either Molefan or Peekercpa). Supose this come down to differances in game play, I feel a no lynch or no vote is not good, and I supose at times you feel it maybe is good. so on this the only thing to do is agree to disagree. More worrying to me, though, is that he seems to have made up his mind before writing this post. You know if i saw something to make me believe nanook would lie in his post, I would be happy to vote the guy. But since there is nothing in his post's I can find and I see no one else looking through his post's to show anything, why vote him? If you show evidance other then "he must be, cause I am not" argument, then i would be happy to switch my vote. But I see nothing but "feeling" voting, sorry but I learned my lesson's in past games not to take emotions into it. His stated intention is that the post be a springboard on who to vote for Tomorrow. So in a situation of claimed investigator and investigated, we should blind our selves to thinking about who else is a good candidate for possibly voting down the road? Sorry but last I checked in most cases there is more then one alien/scum in games, so forgaeting about the tohers and thinking, "gee let's not worry about anyone else today" is a one shot ticket to losing, as far as I am concerned. Shaggy came into Today intending to vote me, and failed to even think of reviewing the possibility that Nanook might be lying. It's only in D05.019 that he even thinks about the possibility that I might be falsely accused. As I said in this post and many others, if you are falsly accused find me evidance on nanook and I will be happy to switch my vote. Quote his PM, look at his voting record, like do something if you want me to believe you, you gotta give me something other then "I am being framed." Shaggy's analysis of the Town investigator role (a lose-lose situation) overlooks the fact that Nanook's position is the result of having only one living investiagee in the first three Days – which may be bad luck, or may be very convenient if he is in fact an Alien. Or, in this game, a mixture of both, if Nanook was, as I suspect, recruited midgame.) You know as far as I see it this only bolsters my thoughts. A investigator in alot of cases is a lose-lose situation. Cause what your saying is unless he/she can have the investigated survive and have what 3 or 4 people to say yes to the investigation results, then we lynch the poor bastard. Well I am betting most games, that probably won't happen, having most the investigated survive.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 7, 2009 19:00:46 GMT -5
Vote MHaye[/color]
This is nearly a coinflip. The deciding factor is the way voting has gone today... I would expect a scum Nanook to have been more vigorously defended.
If we are at Lylo here, and I've guessed right, there will probably be a last-minute effort to save MHaye. If I've guessed wrong, there won't.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 7, 2009 19:01:37 GMT -5
Feh.
Vote: MHaye
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Post by Almost Human on May 7, 2009 19:20:26 GMT -5
Uncool Bill - I think it's pretty clear nobody's finding it easy to make a decision toDay. Uncool that I voted MHaye? Uncool that I voted before KidV? Uncool that I didn't wait till after KidV had voted and possibly held the deciding vote myself? Uncool that I've effectively given KidV the deciding vote? None of the above. I just meant it was kind of uncool to point out that it was all down to Kid V. Lots of pressure involved in making that decision. Anyway, I think he's made the right one under the circumstances. I'd have probably done the same.
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Post by KidVermicious on May 7, 2009 20:08:41 GMT -5
After reading Shaggy's comments, I'm inclined to go with my original thoughts. So: Vote: mhaye [/color] You haven't voted either way, so you know hold the casting vote.[/quote] Of course, if KidV is an alien, then we're all screwed.[/quote] Yeah, I noticed that. Something to think about Tomorrow. If.
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Post by Nanook on May 7, 2009 20:18:01 GMT -5
Of course, if KidV is an alien, then we're all screwed. Yeah, I noticed that. Something to think about Tomorrow. If. Uh....what? And thank you for making the right choice.
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