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Post by daclad on May 31, 2009 9:21:30 GMT -5
Sorry guys, Had to go visit the in-laws for a while( sorry had no time to tell you).
I will post again a bit later, after i have had time to catch up.
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Post by Mister Blockey on May 31, 2009 11:39:45 GMT -5
All this is of course nonsense if we only had the Doctor. But I'd say it a 50/50 % chance of a Cop in this game... actually it's a 33% chance, but that's not so important, just my statistics/math ocd rearing it's head.
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Post by toadfoot on May 31, 2009 12:12:17 GMT -5
I checked the thread last night to find out what time Night would be over, only to find my Night had well and truly ended.
Go Town! I'll haunt you later...
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 31, 2009 12:18:05 GMT -5
All this is of course nonsense if we only had the Doctor. But I'd say it a 50/50 % chance of a Cop in this game... actually it's a 33% chance, but that's not so important, just my statistics/math ocd rearing it's head. Why is that? We know it can't be the setup without the Doctor as we lynched ours yesterDay. I'm not great with numbers at all - but I like to learn
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Post by Mahaloth on May 31, 2009 12:40:16 GMT -5
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Post by Mister Blockey on May 31, 2009 13:17:26 GMT -5
actually it's a 33% chance, but that's not so important, just my statistics/math ocd rearing it's head. Why is that? We know it can't be the setup without the Doctor as we lynched ours yesterDay. I'm not great with numbers at all - but I like to learn Just because the pool of unknowns has been decreased doesn't mean the probability has been changed. Since we know there were 3 options at the beginning and only one allows for a cop in addition to the doc we lost, then only one of the original format need be considered. However just because we eliminated the cop only option, doesn't mean it didn't have a 33% chance to have occurred. The math is right, it's just irrelevant.
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Total Ullz
Administrator
You can take the girl out of mafia - but you can't take mafia out of the girl
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Post by Total Ullz on May 31, 2009 13:24:06 GMT -5
Just because the pool of unknowns has been decreased doesn't mean the probability has been changed. I see now - that's very clever! I'll have to try and remember that in the future. Really cool of you to take the time and explain.
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Post by Guy Incognito on May 31, 2009 14:15:43 GMT -5
The game setup is randomly chosen from one of three possible setups as detailed below: 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Sane Cop, 1 Sane Doctor, 5 Townies 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Cop, 6 Townies 2 Mafia Goons, 1 Sane Doctor, 6 Townies Okay - we now know we had a Doctor. So I would say we got 50% chance of also having a Cop. If we do - I think the Cop should claim Day 3. I have been thinking about this a lot (but maybe I got it wrong so let's talk about this and see if my plan got major flaws): We were 9 to begin with - and the setup tells us we got 2 scum in the game. We're now down to 7 players - that would be 5 town and 2 scum. IF we mislynch again toDay - by Day 3 we got 3 Town and 2 scum - and that would by LyLo. But if a Cop was in the game - (s)he would have had 2 investigations by then. So knowing what the Cop saw could save us the game, right? The reasonI don't think the Cop should claim toDay is: We lost the Doctor. So if a cop claimed toDay - the scum would have a easy pick toNight. All this is of course nonsense if we only had the Doctor. But I'd say it a 50/50 % chance of a Cop in this game... Total, I think your logic makes sense, with a day 3 claim of the Cop, ionly other Math that I f there is one. The see, is if we get a lucky lynch today, instead We're at 4 Town, and 1 Scum. At this point, the cop should be able to give us either the name of the Scum, or 2 Town, as long as neither of the investigations got killed. So a Day 3 claim is still good. My only other thought, is if there is no Cop, the SCUM will know this, if they don't have a roleblocker. So, one of them could claim Cop, and name 2 people as Town, giving them strong Town Cred. We'll have to figure that out as we get there.
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Post by Guy Incognito on May 31, 2009 14:28:27 GMT -5
Why is that? We know it can't be the setup without the Doctor as we lynched ours yesterDay. I'm not great with numbers at all - but I like to learn Just because the pool of unknowns has been decreased doesn't mean the probability has been changed. Since we know there were 3 options at the beginning and only one allows for a cop in addition to the doc we lost, then only one of the original format need be considered. However just because we eliminated the cop only option, doesn't mean it didn't have a 33% chance to have occurred. The math is right, it's just irrelevant. Although I like Total's Logic with the Day 3 Claim, this math is correct. I learned it from the show "Numbers"
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on May 31, 2009 15:48:47 GMT -5
Inside joke that I need to add to the Wiki. See, it all started with Story's evil dead game on the Dope. I was a guest starring deadite NPC (and a spoiled observor). Although I wasn't on the player list, someone voted me. I came in and said I wasn't in the game. One of the later Days, I interjected on something not game related, and edited my post. Which got me vote for editing (nevermind that had I been playing, an edit would have gotten me a modkill). Sach ran a game over there as well, where I cleared up some of peekercpa's misrememberings of Smash Brothers on this board. I also edited my post, and someone voted me. And then, in Alien Taste, Almost Human, the head alien, tried to recruit me night 0. Once again, I wasn't playing. It's why I've put my location to what it is. It's also why Special Ed (who, like me, isn't in this game) is voting me. I can pretty much be guaranteed getting a joke vote in any game now. Probably in night 0 if it's a game I'm actually playing in, since typically those votes won't count.
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Post by daclad on May 31, 2009 17:10:34 GMT -5
Sorry guys, Had to go visit the in-laws for a while( sorry had no time to tell you). I will post again a bit later, after i have had time to catch up. Ok i am not surprised that i have a couple of votes against me for not voting but i was somewhere where i couldn't get on-line to do it. If anyone knows how to get this on-line without costing the earth please let me know. If you really want to know i would have said Vote: BillMC for lack of participation, and i still do.
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Post by Guy Incognito on May 31, 2009 17:35:53 GMT -5
Sorry guys, Had to go visit the in-laws for a while( sorry had no time to tell you). I will post again a bit later, after i have had time to catch up. Thanks for letting us know Daclad. From what I've seen, activity usually drops over the weekend, as some players have difficulty getting online on the weekends. For the record, my vote on you is about the lack of a vote on Day 1. I'm not concerned yet about a lack of participation during Day 2.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 1, 2009 0:50:34 GMT -5
mmmm I'm not liking the amount of time it's taking to catch up considering almost nothing has happened.
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jun 1, 2009 4:50:04 GMT -5
Vote count daclad 2 (Guy Incognito, Mahaloth) BillMc 1 (daclad) With 7 alive it takes 4 to hammer!
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Post by ichinisanshigo on Jun 1, 2009 9:44:50 GMT -5
As I said before, I'm reluctant to vote for non-participants. We've heard from daclad. Now where's BillMC?
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Post by BillMc on Jun 1, 2009 15:43:31 GMT -5
Well I think the biggest takeaway from Day 1 is -- if you are going to claim, don't leave it till the last few minutes of the Day.
So the question is whether we have a Cop or not -- the scum already know the answer to that one. If there is, and we mislynch today - then they have a 50/50 chance of either killing or blocking the cop tonight -- not great odds at all.
Vote: daclad
Well the sum of your participation was to vote for toadfoot for asking a question, then unvote; get called on lurking, and vote me.
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jun 1, 2009 16:26:38 GMT -5
Vote count daclad 3 (Guy Incognito, Mahaloth, BillMc) BillMc 1 (daclad) With 7 alive it takes 4 to hammer!
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Post by ichinisanshigo on Jun 1, 2009 16:50:57 GMT -5
Well, [d]daclad[/b] was missing in action Day 1, and then he votes BillMC for lack of participation. Granted, BillMC doesn't have a high post count, but it seems as though his posts have been relevant, and he did vote. Unless he cares to elaborate, I think I'll
Vote daclad
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jun 1, 2009 17:02:36 GMT -5
Vote count daclad 4 (Guy Incognito, Mahaloth, BillMc, ichinisanshigo) BillMc 1 (daclad)
That's the hammer...Day is over. Give me a few minutes for the death scene!
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jun 1, 2009 17:07:54 GMT -5
After a very short discussion it is decided that daclad must be one of the bad guys. He runs but, is quickly caught and lynched. Daclad...Vanilla Town is lynched.
Night actions are due by Wednesday at 8pm EDT. Fluff away!
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Post by BillMc on Jun 1, 2009 17:15:48 GMT -5
well that sucks
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jun 1, 2009 17:16:58 GMT -5
Oh and for those wondering, I did not count the vote for Hoopy as neither him nor Ed are actually playing in this game!
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Post by Guy Incognito on Jun 1, 2009 17:23:06 GMT -5
Crap
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Post by daclad on Jun 1, 2009 17:40:22 GMT -5
WOW! That was Quick. I suposse thats what you get for having time out and not being able to vote. Never mind guys, it's was still a good introduction to the game for me.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 1, 2009 22:52:03 GMT -5
well great.. and fluff only.... I said I was annoyed by it not let's kill him.
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Post by IronHorse on Jun 2, 2009 0:32:20 GMT -5
Boooooooooo! Not another townie! Stupid hammer.
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Total Ullz
Administrator
You can take the girl out of mafia - but you can't take mafia out of the girl
Posts: 2,029
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Post by Total Ullz on Jun 2, 2009 4:35:31 GMT -5
Well I guess I can't vote now Fluff only I guess...
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Post by toadfoot on Jun 2, 2009 16:40:21 GMT -5
oooOOOoooo
You know, you people have to fluff if I'm going to haunt you.
hmph.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 3, 2009 1:14:48 GMT -5
I'm not a fluffer
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Post by IronHorse on Jun 3, 2009 5:41:05 GMT -5
Maybe we should try an all ghost night?
ETA: Edited just because I can!
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