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Post by BillMc on May 25, 2009 5:04:56 GMT -5
As far as the players dropping dead at dusk. I understand now that we didn't lynch anyone. I misinterpreted FCOD's post. I think it far fetched, but isn't it possible that Pleo has a built in power that allows him to place a daykill instead of having a lynch if he was the top lynch candidate? I agree that it is possible that the scum have a delayed NK. Similar to what we saw in SSBM. I merely wish to be slightly more optimistic. I guess it depends on how we interpret this post. It would seem to imply that the end of day deaths are not connected to our lynch.
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Post by RoOsh on May 25, 2009 15:59:57 GMT -5
This is kinda weird. So we've got 2 kills last night. We've had a Day Kill 2x.
We've also had a "Weak Roleblocker" in Special Edwhich... puzzles me a little bit. What's a "weak" roleblocker do? Perhaps he cannot block all the different players but only certain ones? Not sure.... I wonder if Special Ed left any clues on who he'd been blocking the last few nights, because even if we assume there was only 1 NKiller, then sure we all have assumed it was the Doctor doing it. But Special Ed being a roleblocker might have a different opinion and might have thought it was HIM that was doing it, and so he may have tried to drop a hint or something- especially if it was the 2nd time there was no NK, I'm sure if he blocked the same person he thought he was onto something.... Though then we'd have to wonder what happened last night? That's getting into TOO Much WIFOM (did they switch killers, did the attack on a roleblocker occur before the roleblock, or did Ed just randomly choose targets each night?).
But I think we should see what Ed's been trying to say if anything.
Also, with one groupie dead- it might be worth Revealing the TOTAL number of Groupies, Atarus, just in case if you go away and you're town as well- just so we don't leave room for scum claims of groupiehood, if you know there to be only 2 groupies (which is what I've been assuming). So the 3rd guy doesn't have to out himself, but it'd be nice to know the total # of Groupies at this juncture.
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Post by RoOsh on May 25, 2009 16:10:34 GMT -5
I disagree. Based on the updated WC of "You win when all ELE members are dead.", it's highly unlikely if not impossible for there to be an SK. There's no mention of needing to get rid of anyone other than the ELE, and I can't see a game that allows Town to win with an SK still on the loose. Any third parties would have to be neutral at worst. (I could be wrong, but it just makes no sense.) (Well, unless there's suddenly a new WC update after this post.) I agree with this idea as well. We've had 3 different kills so far. 1 During the day and 2 at night. But the way the Win condition has been modified it DOES eliminate the possibility of an SK unless the SK is a rogue member of the ELE or perhaps a traitor scum in which case, they still have to die. Though, there could be a killing 3rd party role out there, but perhaps has a separate win condition? Perhaps a rogue SK/Vig? I can see one role from the Canon that could be played that way. But I'm not sure if it's even worth going into- a "good guy" role that's not really "good" or "bad" after all. But certainly not a member of the ELE. :shrug: But I don't think that's worth getting into too much, as I don't see what the outcome of that would bring. Currently we have the chance of 3 unique killers. It seems likely to say 1 is most likely a scum group- but the odds all 3 are to the scum group is unlikely.... So perhaps 1 is scum and one is a Vig. But then what of the 3rd? Last night there were 2 kills, we do not know if this means there have ALWAYS been 2 killers or if last night was a special ability perhaps used by the scum or if perhaps it was a scum and a vig kill finally both showing through.... The DK as well has been unique as it's happened 2x. The chances of scum getting the chance to attempt a kill BOTH Day and NIGHT seems overpowered, but perhaps it could be a delayed kill? Not sure. Perhaps the no scum kills at night meant day kills instead? So only one or the other? If so then, toDay's lynch should be paid attention to- if there's another Death at Dusk. It could even just be tied into who the killer is- perhaps one of the members of the ELE if chosen will commit the Kill at Dusk while another at Dawn if chosen? These are just all different ideas running through my head.... But I do agree with Kat that the way the WC has been changed- it does seem to rule out a NonELE SK role at least. But it doesn't rule out the possibility of a 3rd party killer. Just one that opposes the Town (however, if their mission is perhaps a Win by Town or with Scum, then we'd have to treat them with suspicion on their actions and judge it based on what they've been doing to see if they're playing Pro-Town or Pro-Scum, and always be wary of the switch).
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Post by Pollux Oil on May 25, 2009 20:33:31 GMT -5
Also, with one groupie dead- it might be worth Revealing the TOTAL number of Groupies, Atarus, just in case if you go away and you're town as well- just so we don't leave room for scum claims of groupiehood, if you know there to be only 2 groupies (which is what I've been assuming). So the 3rd guy doesn't have to out himself, but it'd be nice to know the total # of Groupies at this juncture. I agree. My whole PM, unedited, is as follows: Since Almost Human turned up town, and I know I'm town, and the fact that Groupie #3 hasn't revealed themselves yet, my guess is that Groupie #3 is scum. Especially since neither me nor Almost Human seemed to know who Groupie #3 is. Either that, or Groupie #3 has some sort of special power by themselves. I know you guys can't trust me 100% until I'm dead, but definitely don't trust Groupie #3 if I show up dead, and then they decide to reveal themselves.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 2:52:53 GMT -5
I agree. My whole PM, unedited, is as follows: Since Almost Human turned up town, and I know I'm town, and the fact that Groupie #3 hasn't revealed themselves yet, my guess is that Groupie #3 is scum. Especially since neither me nor Almost Human seemed to know who Groupie #3 is. Either that, or Groupie #3 has some sort of special power by themselves. I know you guys can't trust me 100% until I'm dead, but definitely don't trust Groupie #3 if I show up dead, and then they decide to reveal themselves. Either that or the knowlegde of the groupies was asigned by random.org The " you know that Groupie #2 is Almost Human. You're not sure who Groupie #3 is, maybe Groupie #2 knows..." made me think that it was possible. That doesn't say much about your alignment, though. Anyway... just thought I would mension it.
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 26, 2009 6:54:31 GMT -5
I investigated storyteller. He was town. Sorry. Don't worry about it, Stickler. Everyone's a hero in their own way; everyone has something they can do. Spread your wings and fly! (Especially that guy; he smells like poo). Everyone's a hero in their own way: you, and you... And mostly me... And you. Good morning, fellow citizens. I think it's time to introduce myself. I am Captain Hammer. I am a Vigilante. That's a fancy high school word that means someone who kills people. But not killin' like for a murder, or for kicks, even if it is fun sometimes; no, a Vigilante is someone who kills people that need killing, or at least tries to. That's me. I'm what they call a "Compulsory Vig," and I didn't know what that was either. But I asked my girlfriend Penny (we totally had sex), and she says it means I just can't help myself; I have to kill someone every Night. That sounds right. The first two Nights we were here, I tried to kill Pleonast, but he didn't die. I didn't hear anything specific about why he didn't die; just woke up and found him still here. Last Night I did something stupid - I went off the reservation and I killed Special Ed. I think it's useful to have at least some information about what's been going down. Pleonast really does appear to be immune to Night kills in addition to lynches. So we have a minimum of two pure anti-Town killers. Whoever is Daykilling isn't just Daykilling indiscriminately; (s)he is killing strong Town targets. So is our Night killer. Neither is playing both sides against the middle; both are attempting to kill high-value Town targets at the exclusion of all else. We're in trouble.
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Post by Pleonast on May 26, 2009 9:37:09 GMT -5
For my own notes:
Day One - 20 players Sister Coyote (5) - Almost Human, Kat!, Roosh, sinjin, sachertorte Pollux (3) - Special Ed, Pleonast, MHaye Inner Stickler (2) - KidVermicious, Paul sachertorte (1) - Pollux Paul (1) - NAF1138 No Vote (7) - Total Lost, BillMC, Nanook, storyteller, Natlaw, Sister Coyote, zlw
Day Two - 19 players Pleonast (10) - KidV, Roosh, Natlaw, Inner Stickler, NAF1138, Special Ed, Paul, Storyteller, sinjin, MHaye Roosh (2) - Pleonast, Kat! Paul (1) - Almost Human Kat! (1) - Pollux No Vote (4) - Total Lost, BillMC, Nanook, zlw Frozen (1) - sachertorte
Day Three - 18 players Pleonast (11) - Storyteller, BillMc, Almost Human, Paul, Roosh, MHaye, NAF1138, sinjin, Kat!, zlw, Natlaw zlw (1) - KidV Kat (1) - Pollux sinjin (1) - Total Lost No Vote (3) - Nanook, Inner Stickler, Special Ed Frozen (1) - Pleonast
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Post by Pleonast on May 26, 2009 9:48:06 GMT -5
From them moderator: 15. Sister Coyote (AKA Fake Thomas Jefferson), ELE Strongman -- Lynched Day One 6. sachertorte (AKA Professor Normal), Vanilla Town -- Found dead Day Two 13. zlw (AKA Female News Anchor), Town Tracker -- Found dead Day Three 12. Almost Human (AKA Groupie #2), Town Groupie -- Trans-Matter-Rayed into Cumin Night Three 14. Special Ed (AKA Moist), Town Weak Roleblocker -- Found dead Night Three.
I'm wondering about the source of the kills. From the descriptions, we can't tell which are scum kills and which are not. Almost Human's method of death is different. Perhaps that's how scum kill? Or, do scum only have Day Kills, and she was killed by a one-shot power or special role?
That's assuming storyteller is telling the truth about killing Special Ed. story, if you are pro-Town and compulstory, I suggest you target me each Night, if you want to minimize Townie deaths. Of course, I'm in favor of a proactive approach to Vigs, so feel free to keep going after scum.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
It looks like sinjin is the frozen one ToDay, although it hasn't been confirmed by vote count yet.
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Post by Pleonast on May 26, 2009 9:49:14 GMT -5
story, if you are pro-Town and compulstory, Heh, interesting misspelling.
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Post by The Real FCOD on May 26, 2009 10:57:32 GMT -5
I'm wondering about the source of the kills. From the descriptions, we can't tell which are scum kills and which are not. Almost Human's method of death is different. Perhaps that's how scum kill? Or, do scum only have Day Kills, and she was killed by a one-shot power or special role? Don't infer anything from those descriptions. They are just color. --FCOD
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Post by Nanook on May 26, 2009 11:08:46 GMT -5
You know what? Subbing in sucks. I feel a little lost here. But that's never stopped me before!
One thing that strikes me as likely is that the vote blocker is most likely Scum or Third Party if it's a direct power. You'll note that all of the people that have been hit by it, Story, Sach and SInjin, were investigated or mod confirmed as Town. 3 votes stolen, all 3 claimed/confirmed Town. Sure sounds like a scum ability to me. Obviously we have to consider the posibility that one of them is Scum using it as a way to build Town cred, but atm it seems to point at least slightly to them(at least Story and Sinjin, what with poor sach being dead and all) being exactly what IS has investigated them as.
I know everyone is sick to death of Pleo, but since I wasn't around for the original discussions, I thought I might weigh in a little. How likely is it that he is, mostly, telling the truth? By that I mean, is a completely unkillable Townie overpowered? Obviously a scum with that ability would be broken right in half, but a Townie? A difficulty for scum to overcome, but not totally out of the question, or so it seems to me. If I'm completely offbase here, please let me know.
Story as a Vig? Interesting. If he's telling the truth, it lends credence to Pleo's story and posted PM.
Right now it's Paul that's bugging me the most. Part of it is his reaction to the death's Today. Part of it is this, his vote for Pleo back on Day 2.
We know now that Pleo was telling at the very least the partial truth, in that he is unkillable. The thing is, since at the time Pleo was likely Town, the Scum would have reason to believe his story. This feels to me like an attempt to get some more information out of him, a fishing attempt in a not so blantant way. I'd like to hear more from him about this.
Oh and Pleo? Listing me as having No Vote Day 1 and 2 is kinda unfair, since I wasn't actually PLAYING yet. And while I may have been in the game Day 3, I came in very late and wasn't able to catch up in time. I can't comment on what my predecessor did or did not do in terms of voting.
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 26, 2009 11:43:15 GMT -5
My vote was not stolen Day One (or ever), Nanook. I just was plain AWOL, unfortunately.
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Post by sinjin on May 26, 2009 11:50:20 GMT -5
Pleo's vote was stolen.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 11:51:20 GMT -5
Ok, finally I think I will be able to get into this game. Sorry it took me so may Days to finally be able to paticipate.
Can someone help me out and tell me if I am missing any cliaims
Inner Stickler is a cop Story is a Vig Pollux is a Groupie (probably a mason and from the way things played out it seems like a weak 2 person masonry. I would be very surprised if there was a groupie #3 at all)
We have sinjin as confirmed town. Pleo as a confirmed liar and probable anti town element.
Did I miss anything?
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Post by RoOsh on May 26, 2009 12:18:30 GMT -5
Pollux is a Groupie (probably a mason and from the way things played out it seems like a weak 2 person masonry. I would be very surprised if there was a groupie #3 at all) Pollux has claimed there is a 3rd Mason of unknown alignment still out there.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 12:21:23 GMT -5
Ok, finally I think I will be able to get into this game. Sorry it took me so may Days to finally be able to paticipate. Can someone help me out and tell me if I am missing any cliaims Inner Stickler is a cop Story is a Vig Pollux is a Groupie (probably a mason and from the way things played out it seems like a weak 2 person masonry. I would be very surprised if there was a groupie #3 at all) We have sinjin as confirmed town. Pleo as a confirmed liar and probable anti town element. Did I miss anything? Sinjin has not been confirmed - only investigated as town by IS So was Story - so if you really think she is "confirmed" so is Story.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 12:23:06 GMT -5
Based on his posted PM I don't see how he could know that. If AH didn't know groupie #3 and Pollux doesn't know groupie #3 then there are three options
1) Pollux is lying. But it's a stupid lie. 2) Groupie #3 is scum. And at this point that is functionally equivallent to the groupie not existing because scum would be fools to claim groupie #3 now. So no one is going to claim groupie 3. Though I suppose if IS comes back with an investigation that shows someone is groupie 3 this is something to consider. 3) There is no groupie #3.
For where I am going with my current line of thinking, I think that all of the above yeild the same basic result. If the game was balanced for masons, then it was only balanced for 2 of them.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 12:24:56 GMT -5
Sinjin has not been confirmed - only investigated as town by IS So was Story - so if you really think she is "confirmed" so is Story. ' Ah, I missed that story was investigated. Good. That's helpful. So story is 100% a pro town vig. Unfortunatly he is a forced kill vig, which is mostly anti town but...it's probably time for him to start killing every Night anyway. Based on what I know I think it's time to mass claim.
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Post by Merestil Haye on May 26, 2009 12:28:53 GMT -5
NAF, 1 and 3 are functionally identical. If there is no Groupie # 3, then Pollux, who has said outright that there is, is lying.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 12:30:07 GMT -5
So story is 100% a pro town vig. Really? You believe in 100% in a mafia-game? I would have gone with "most likely" or "presumed".
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 12:47:18 GMT -5
So story is 100% a pro town vig. Really? You believe in 100% in a mafia-game? I would have gone with "most likely" or "presumed". Why? I never understood why everyone feels the need to couch things like that. Merestil HayeWhen I said Pollux was lying I meant about his posted PM. The PM implies that there is a groupie #3 without actually saying that there is one. So I can see how Pollux could have assumed that there was one in the game when there wan't. Ultimatly I don't think it matters, because as I said, I was mostly just trying to decide if the game was balaced for 3 masons or not, and I think all the options point to not. Town would seem to be in a position where it can not lose right now. If IS investigates someone in the unclaimed pool, we lynch someone in said pool and story vigs someone in said pool, and story and IS don't overlap targets, town wins. The game is over we just won. Congradulations town.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on May 26, 2009 12:54:00 GMT -5
About Storytellers vigilante claim: Why did you try to kill Pleonast twice? You being against his lynch Day Two makes sense if you were going to try again, but did you have some indication you would succeed a second time? Why did you encourage to try to lynch him again, when you knew he had already survived three attempts? Why not try a fifth time if you thought it was just a matter of getting luckily? I see you did list suspicion of special ed Yesterday though. Based on his posted PM I don't see how he could know that. If AH didn't know groupie #3 and Pollux doesn't know groupie #3 then there are three options 1) Pollux is lying. But it's a stupid lie. 2) Groupie #3 is scum. And at this point that is functionally equivallent to the groupie not existing because scum would be fools to claim groupie #3 now. So no one is going to claim groupie 3. Though I suppose if IS comes back with an investigation that shows someone is groupie 3 this is something to consider. 3) There is no groupie #3. For where I am going with my current line of thinking, I think that all of the above yeild the same basic result. If the game was balanced for masons, then it was only balanced for 2 of them. To drag that argument back up: groupie != mason. I also don't follow the jump from G1 and G2 know each other (but not alignment) thus G3 is scum because there are one three of them. Pollux also added the argument that G3 didn't claim, he must be scum. Unless G3 has alignment information, which the other groupies didn't, why would he?
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 12:57:35 GMT -5
Two roles that can confirm each other = mason. Alignment doesn't have to enter into it. We know AH was town, and frankly the odds that Pollux isn't town based on what is know are slim. YES it's possible that Pollux might not be town, but it's unlikely. What is far more likely is that groupie #3 who was not known to either #1 or #2 is not town.
But again, the details really aren't so impotant since I think a mass claim will do the town good anyway. It's big picture time here people.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:02:21 GMT -5
Two roles that can confirm each other = mason. Alignment doesn't have to enter into it. We know AH was town, and frankly the odds that Pollux isn't town based on what is know are slim. YES it's possible that Pollux might not be town, but it's unlikely. What is far more likely is that groupie #3 who was not known to either #1 or #2 is not town. But again, the details really aren't so impotant since I think a mass claim will do the town good anyway. It's big picture time here people. I'm not saying I don't agree with a mass claim - but you kind of took me by surprise. As you said yourself - it took you some time to get here. And now that you are (which is very nice) you start by saying 100% confirmed and lets claim Could you just please tell me why you're so sure a claim would work? We have had some strange DK, seem to have an un-killable player and my thought was that this game is designed quite unique. So right now I don't feel sure how a mass claim will work or why you're so sure on the number of masons in the game.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 13:03:41 GMT -5
Ok TL, I am short on time, but it will work for the same reason it worked in the Mister E game.
You and story can explain that one to everyone else while I do some actual office type work.
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Post by Nanook on May 26, 2009 13:11:10 GMT -5
I did mention that subbing sucks right? I confused you and Sach Story. Too much information in too short a time, brain overload.
Why do you feel a mass claim would be helpful now NAF? It's a closed set up, so I'm not sure how much information we'll actually gain out of it, while I can see benefits for the scum from it.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 13:22:09 GMT -5
A mass claim will help town because it will help story and IS figure out who to target.
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Post by NAF1138 on May 26, 2009 13:24:25 GMT -5
NETA: I expect that nearly everyone left to claim will be vanilla. I haven't run the numbers yet (I plan to later today, but I have an OB apointment this afternoon so my time is cut a tad shorter than it normally would be right now.) But with what is out there and who has died, I expect maybe 2 legit power roles left. So this forces scum to either false claim, or gives Story and IS a wide range of targets many of whom will likely be scum.
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Post by Total Ullz on May 26, 2009 13:32:16 GMT -5
A mass claim will help town because it will help story and IS figure out who to target. If we're talking about a claim: I do not want to act too proud and in any way be humbled for doing so. I can't talk for others and I can't really help others - but I seem to remember RoOsh as a brilliant writer and would have loved to be able to pull a stunt like that as well. This will have to do for now.
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Post by storyteller0910 on May 26, 2009 13:35:08 GMT -5
If we're talking about a claim: I do not want to act too proud and in any way be humbled for doing so. I can't talk for others and I can't really help others - but I seem to remember RoOsh as a brilliant writer and would have loved to be able to pull a stunt like that as well. This will have to do for now. Interesting. So what you're saying, basically, is that you are the Chia Bingo Master?
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