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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 15, 2009 15:19:21 GMT -5
Another Day, another death.
Or was there?
Nobody has died.
-----------------------------------------------
Day Seven will end on Saturday, June 20th at 3:00pm Eastern Time. With 10 alive, it will take 6 votes to start the countdown and 9 votes to insta-lynch.
--FCOD
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Jun 15, 2009 16:07:48 GMT -5
Wow, that was really quick.
Just an FYI- I'll be out of Town Thursday-Saturday. So if we can talk quicker it'd be nicer, ya know?
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jun 15, 2009 17:43:39 GMT -5
Total is town, just so you all know.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 15, 2009 20:35:41 GMT -5
Thanks, IS.
Lets get this party started. I'm going to open with a Vote: MHaye , based on the vote pattern yesterday.
More later, but probably not much more, because I'm out of town Thursday until Sunday.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 15, 2009 20:36:48 GMT -5
What the heck happened there? How anticlimactic.
Vote: MHaye
Who is frozeded today?
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Post by sinjin on Jun 15, 2009 21:03:36 GMT -5
MHaye voted for TL, a claimed Scotsman, over NAF a claimed Vanilla acting who OMGUS'd Nanook and started his lynch parade, tried to get a mass claim going earlier disregarding the fact that we had daykills going on and called for a mass claim again yesterDay to out the Doc so we could find out why no NK's were occuring. Oh and MHaye was on the Nanook parade too*. (Short Version of analysis)
Vote: MHaye
Yeah I can vote today!!!
*Was that a scum would never do that gambit?
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Post by sinjin on Jun 15, 2009 21:05:48 GMT -5
EBWOP: Take out "acting" up there.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 15, 2009 22:09:19 GMT -5
Man, I'm such a trendsetter. I voted Kat before it was cool, and I voted Mhaye before it was cool.
Okay, I'm gonna piggyback on Natlaw's voting analysis of Day Four and add a few of my own thoughts, in addition to putting NAF in as confirmed scum.
Now, with 17 Hours left in the Day, the votes looked like this:
NAF1138 (3) - Pleonast, Natlaw, Nanook Kat! (2) - KidVermicious, Roosh Nanook (2) - NAF1138, Paul Pollux (1) - Total Lost MHaye (1) - Pollux
Paul's was the most recent vote. Now, at this point, IF Mhaye is scum...three scum all have votes on them. The only escape routes are either me or Nanook. (Obviously, this analysis is me knowing that I'm town, but everyone else has to take it with a grain of salt.) Paul jumps behind NAF, probably because it will be more tricky to get everyone to vote for a semi-mason as opposed to Nanook.
Soon after this vote count, Inner Stickler jumps in with another vote on Mhaye. This (theoretically) really puts the scum in trouble since now three scum all have 2+ votes on them. A strong wind at the end of the Day could lynch any one of them.
The next vote is Mhaye's, which he makes for Nanook after comparing Nanook's case vs. paul's. Which is interesting, since paul has no votes on him at the moment. Also, Mhaye says at the end of his post about Nanook:
Except he never posts anything about NAF, just jumps into why he votes for Nanook over paul. Hmm.
Now with Mhaye on Nanook, NAF and Nanook are tied at 3.
Then, in the space of 5 minutes, Total Lost, Kat, AND Roosh all vote for Nanook, leaving the final count as such:
(End of Day) Nanook (6) - NAF1138, Paul, MHaye, Total Lost, Kat!, Roosh NAF1138 (3) - Pleonast, Natlaw, Nanook MHaye (2) - Pollux, Inner Stickler Kat! (1) - KidVermicious Paul (0) - sinjin No Vote (2) - storyteller, BillMc
Frozen vote / Investigated town.
Kat was most likely going to vote for Nanook regardless, to save NAF. Total and Roosh's switches were probably townie indecision, but I'm not going to rule Roosh out completely yet. Especially since Roosh was the first person to vote NAF yesterDay, and might not have thought it would have been such a close vote at the end.
I think we should definitely lynch Mhaye toDay. If Mhaye turns up scum and the game doesn't end, I think we should seriously think about trying to lynch Pleonast again tomorrow.
If Mhaye turns up town, I'd probably take a close look at Roosh tomorrow and it'd be a split decision between him and Pleo.
Vote Mhaye
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 15, 2009 22:19:23 GMT -5
That looks ugly for Roosh, especially if MHaye comes back town.
Pending a reread, I'm going to have to say I'd be ok with lynching either of them.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 15, 2009 22:24:26 GMT -5
Oh and MHaye was on the Nanook parade too*. (Short Version of analysis) (vote snippy snip snip) *Was that a scum would never do that gambit? Funny thing is, me, NAF, MHaye, and peeker did a scum-would-never-do-that gambit in the Ragnarok game where all four of us voted for the same person for a lynch and got them lynched. IF Mhaye turns up scum, and both NAF and Mhaye pulled the same gambit in two different games at the same time....hats off, men.
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Post by Total Ullz on Jun 16, 2009 1:37:09 GMT -5
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Post by Total Ullz on Jun 16, 2009 1:39:17 GMT -5
Oh and MHaye was on the Nanook parade too*. (Short Version of analysis) (vote snippy snip snip) *Was that a scum would never do that gambit? Funny thing is, me, NAF, MHaye, and peeker did a scum-would-never-do-that gambit in the Ragnarok game where all four of us voted for the same person for a lynch and got them lynched. IF Mhaye turns up scum, and both NAF and Mhaye pulled the same gambit in two different games at the same time....hats off, men. I was thinking the same thing as I read the end of yesterDay.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2009 5:06:31 GMT -5
One more starts the countdown. We can't risk that. I think I'd better reveal all. (That's not a quote, it's a lack of indent tags. ):highlighted:
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jun 16, 2009 5:19:23 GMT -5
Unvote MHaye
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 16, 2009 7:30:12 GMT -5
MHaye (3) - KidVermicious, sinjin, Pollux
--FCOD
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2009 8:17:22 GMT -5
Sorry, miscounted. I thought there had been five votes. Still, I'd have claimed anyway with four votes rather than risk a countdown starting.
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Post by RoOsh on Jun 16, 2009 9:16:30 GMT -5
Can we see your actual Role PM?
And is there going to be a counterclaim from anyone? I strongly STRONGLY Suggest that if someone else is penny they speak up now.
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Post by RoOsh on Jun 16, 2009 9:25:36 GMT -5
Kat was most likely going to vote for Nanook regardless, to save NAF. Total and Roosh's switches were probably townie indecision, but I'm not going to rule Roosh out completely yet. Especially since Roosh was the first person to vote NAF yesterDay, and might not have thought it would have been such a close vote at the end. I think we should definitely lynch Mhaye toDay. If Mhaye turns up scum and the game doesn't end, I think we should seriously think about trying to lynch Pleonast again tomorrow.If Mhaye turns up town, I'd probably take a close look at Roosh tomorrow and it'd be a split decision between him and Pleo. Really? Me? Dammit, I was totally for the NAF lynch- once I fucked up on the Nanook lynch, I'd been trying to get rid of NAF for a while now. Both NAF and Kat were lynches I supported early, same with SisterC. Now sure, you may say that that's something I'd totally do- bus another player. But give me some credit- I'm not an idiot. Why would I bus 3 Scum players if I was scum when I haven't really gotten much townie credit? It's stupid play, and if I were scum I'd much more likely volunteer to be the bussee than the bussed. Right now I'm of the mind that either Pleo or Mhaye was the final scum (that's why I was kinda hoping that IS would have picked between one of them to see which one was the scum or the townie). I still right now feel both of the two players have played quite Scummy and would have been happy voting for either one (though I'm still afraid that Pleo is involved in the Daykilling mechanic)- and I'm dubious of his claim of penny, but I'm giving it time- I don't like the fact that he didn't post all the info but gave something that def. doesn't look like how mine or the generic role pm is shown.
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Post by RoOsh on Jun 16, 2009 9:28:49 GMT -5
mhaye- are you claiming one shot doctor? or just a doctor who protects one person each night? Who've you been protecting if so (as that'd tell us who may be town on the Days of no kill).
Also, can you explain your voting during the NAF lynch? and the Nanook lynch? And the Sister C lynch if you have anything to say on that one. Any and all info would be nice
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2009 9:34:14 GMT -5
Can we see your actual Role PM? Since the rules allow it, yes. There. Since I suspect that the ELE are down to one or two members, any false claim would be suicide. There are ten players at this point; the ELE need to flush the Doc, but unless there are three or more ELE right now they're too far away from winning for a 1-for-1 trade to do them much good. Converesly, if I was ELE, I wouldn't false claim Penny-the-Doc because it wouldn't gain my side enough to compensate for the loss of me, unless we're something like 7/3 - and that would give the ELE too large a start to be a fair game.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2009 9:43:56 GMT -5
mhaye- are you claiming one shot doctor? or just a doctor who protects one person each night? Who've you been protecting if so (as that'd tell us who may be town on the Days of no kill). My PM should answer that. I can protect one person each Night. Note that, as far as I'm aware my powers don't extend past Dawn, so I've been unable to protect the Daykilled. The NAF lynch is still reasonably fresh. I voted for Total Lost because, on balance, I thought she was more likely to be ELE than NAF. I gave my reason for not believing NAF was ELE in Day 6 - that his misstatement of when he breadcrumbed his claimed role was something that a Townsperson was more likely to do than an ELE-aligned player. The vote was so tight that I cast my vote for her in order to get the person I saw as scummi er lynched. I was wrong in this case, since NAF was not Town aligned.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2009 9:45:52 GMT -5
NETA : I'd have to reread the other lynches to see what happened and if I can recall my thoughts, if there are any that I hadn't already stated. Maybe later today or tomorrow.
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Post by RoOsh on Jun 16, 2009 9:50:21 GMT -5
Final vote Count Tally (The first four days are stolen from Pleonast's VC Chart on Day 5 I've filled in the bubbles)
Day One - 20 players Sister Coyote (5) - Almost Human, Kat!, Roosh, sinjin, sachertorte Pollux (3) - Special Ed, Pleonast, MHaye Inner Stickler (2) - KidVermicious, Paul sachertorte (1) - Pollux Paul (1) - NAF1138 No Vote (7*) - Total Lost, BillMC, Nanook, storyteller, Natlaw, Sister Coyote, zlw *Pleonast forgot on his vote count: Inner Stickler didn't vote on Day 1.
Day Two - 19 players Pleonast (10) - KidV, Roosh, Natlaw, Inner Stickler, NAF1138, Special Ed, Paul, Storyteller, sinjin, MHaye Roosh (2) - Pleonast, Kat! Paul (1) - Almost Human Kat! (1) - Pollux No Vote (4) - Total Lost, BillMC, Nanook, zlw Frozen (1) - sachertorte
Day Three - 18 players Pleonast (11) - Storyteller, BillMc, Almost Human, Paul, Roosh, MHaye, NAF1138, sinjin, Kat!, zlw, Natlaw zlw (1) - KidV Kat (1) - Pollux sinjin (1) - Total Lost No Vote (3) - Nanook, Inner Stickler, Special Ed Frozen (1) - Pleonast
Day Four - 15 players Nanook (6) - NAF1138, Paul, MHaye, Total Lost, Kat, Roosh NAF1138 (3) - Pleonast, Natlaw, Nanook MHaye (2) - Pollux, Inner Stickler Kat! (1) - KidVermicious No Vote (2) - storyteller, BillMc Frozen (1) - sinjin
Day 5: Kat's lynch was a given thanks to IS. So not really going to include that one with any major analysis. Frozen(1): Sinjin
Day 6- 11 Alive NAF1138 (6) - Roosh, Total Lost, Inner Stickler, KidV, Pollux, Natlaw Total Lost (4) - NAF1138, BillMc, MHaye, Pleonast Frozen(1): Sinjin
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Post by RoOsh on Jun 16, 2009 9:56:10 GMT -5
I'm going to go with my #2 suspect then barring a counterclaim from anyone:
Vote Pleonast.
I coulda sworn you were the final scum* , mhaye.... Dammit.
*Yes, I think there are 5 scum in this game- 25% (5/20) is already a high enough number, and we still have our 3rd Party Role out there too. So that's 6 other players out there at least- though we do know from FCOD that the 3rd Party isn't a threat to the Town's WC occuring.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 16, 2009 11:52:37 GMT -5
Unvote: MHaye
Now that I've done that, I'm likely to spend the rest of the day considering MHayes claim. I don't think a Doc has been reading the Scums mind, I think there's another answer to the lack of NKs. I'm still wondering if we even have a Doc, I'm wondering if we need a Doc if we do have one, and I'm really really suspicious that NAFs push for a Doc claim was fishing to see if it was a safe claim. He did the same thing in Ragnarok... guess who took advantage of that fishing expedition?
I understand Penny is a central character to the color... what are the odds she's switched sides? Or doesn't exist, and was provided to scum as a safe claim?
Strong strong Hairy Eyeball 'O Suspicion on MHaye, still.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 16, 2009 13:18:13 GMT -5
MHaye (2) - sinjin, Pollux Pleonast (1) - Roosh
--FCOD
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Post by sinjin on Jun 16, 2009 13:59:42 GMT -5
Unvote: MHaye
Confirmed town 3. BillMc, replacing MiteyMouse 4. sinjin 19. Inner Stickler, cop 2. Total Lost, Scotsman
18. Natlaw, probably town 16. MHaye, claims Penny, Doc
8. Pollux, Groupie #1 17. Pleonast, Dead Bowie, survives 4 kills
11. KidVermicious 20. Roosh
Did anyone get frozen last night? For those suggesting we don't have a Doc, how do you explain the fact that IS is still alive? Are you suggesting that he is scum? How do you explain the lack of night kills and day kills?
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Post by Natlaw on Jun 16, 2009 14:06:08 GMT -5
Converesly, if I was ELE, I wouldn't false claim Penny-the-Doc because it wouldn't gain my side enough to compensate for the loss of me, unless we're something like 7/3 - and that would give the ELE too large a start to be a fair game. 7/3 would have been 13/7 at the start - definitely too large. Town does have a fair bit of power roles though: tracker, groupie (x2?, x3?), weak roleblocker, redirector, complusory vigilante, cop?, doctor?, super-scotsman? (Pleo), magic bag? (KidV), power-that-can-be-lost? (TL) vs strong man, vanilla scum x2, godfather, recruit?, day killer? Some paranoid notes: -by claiming Penny+doctor as scum you would be trying to draw out both. Lynched vs lynched-by-counter-claim has the 'win' that you got a power role out. But with possibly one scum left that wouldn't be useful - unless there is a recruit. -there could be no doctor to counter-claim -if a real Penny knows she is involved in recruitment mechanism, she might prefer to stay hidden. But since we're at worst I think at 7 town / 2 scum (ELE + recruit?), I think even if that was the case it would be better to counter-claim. So unless there is a counter claim, I think you're truthful.
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Post by Natlaw on Jun 16, 2009 14:13:33 GMT -5
Day 5: Kat's lynch was a given thanks to IS. So not really going to include that one with any major analysis. Frozen(1): Sinjin I have Pleonast frozen Day Five. And since the freezing seems to alternate between Pleonast and sinjin, better wait for Pleonast (or the other not yet posted) to check in to worry about a missing freeze Today. *Yes, I think there are 5 scum in this game- 25% (5/20) is already a high enough number, and we still have our 3rd Party Role out there too. So that's 6 other players out there at least- though we do know from FCOD that the 3rd Party isn't a threat to the Town's WC occuring. (bolding mine) I don't think we must have a third party out there, the win condition change could also just mean there is no third party. There could be, of course.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 16, 2009 17:26:10 GMT -5
On the subject of a freeze, I know I have not been frozen; or, to be more accurate, have not received a PM telling me I am frozen.
Natlaw, there are 10 players in the game at the moment, so the gamestate is 8/2 or 9/1.
Roosh, what grounds do you have to suppose that a lynch of Pleo has any more chance of succeeding now than it did on Days 2 and 3? This action raises my hackles, just a bit.
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