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Post by sinjin on Jun 24, 2009 12:10:19 GMT -5
I'm perfectly happy voting for either Pollux or Pleo. If we weren't going to try to off Pleo again today as I said before it was a toss-up between Natlaw and Pollux as far as I was concerned.
If he would have said kill all alone I would not have jumped, but with the toNight....
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Jun 24, 2009 12:45:53 GMT -5
What I got in my notes about Pollux was this quote after Almost Human was killed: Since Almost Human turned up town, and I know I'm town, and the fact that Groupie #3 hasn't revealed themselves yet, my guess is that Groupie #3 is scum. Especially since neither me nor Almost Human seemed to know who Groupie #3 is. Either that, or Groupie #3 has some sort of special power by themselves. I know you guys can't trust me 100% until I'm dead, but definitely don't trust Groupie #3 if I show up dead, and then they decide to reveal themselves. It seemed to me at the time a preemptive argument to lynch groupie #3 right away. The '#3 should have claimed if he wasn't scum' doesn't make sense to me. #1 and #2 didn't know #3, nor any alignments and assuming #3 wouldn't know the latter either I don't see the point to claim. However, with no claimed Groupie#3 it's mostly a moot reasoning.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jun 24, 2009 13:45:52 GMT -5
Lynching Pollux in view of the night comment is very tempting. I'm not going to put a vote down to prevent anyone dropping the hammer yet. But I'm about 60% amenable to his lynch.
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 24, 2009 15:14:24 GMT -5
On the gamestate as a whole. We have nine remaining players. One of the claims is for a Town-aligned investigator, and Inner Stickler is on record as saying that Sinjin, BillMc, Total Lost and KidV are Town-aligned. That does not remove all doubt about them; it is possible that Inner Stickler is (a) lying or (b) not wholly reliable. However, there is no point in lynching in this group until we have some concrete evidence that IS has misinformed us. Let us then consider the others. On Inner Stickler Until we get some evidence that IS has false claimed, I'm going to assume he's telling the truth. We're at a critical point as far as investigated vs unknowns are concerned; the unknowns just outnumber the investigated (I'm counting both IS and myself in the unknown group here). IS's work is not done. We should not lynch him Today. On Natlaw. Natlaw earned a lot of Town cred by bussing the Godfather. We have to be careful with “ELE wouldn't do that” but go back and look at the end of Day 6. Until Natlaw switched his vote, it was a tie that Total Lost was going to lose. If Total had been lynched I'm almost certain IS would have investigated NAF and gotten a Town result (for the same reason he actually checked Total's alignment) – which is just what the ELE wanted, to place the Godfather in the investigated Townie group. The ELE could probably have used the lynch of an innocent to put a lot of pressure on Natlaw and I, producing claims a Day earlier. When it comes to saying “I don't think ELE would do that”, you do have to remember that the ELE's goal is to get one player to survive to Endgame. Bussing the Godfather would give tremendous Town cred. But look at what doing so gives up, and ask yourself whether it's worth it. I don't think so. On Pleonast. The one thing we can be sure of regarding Pleonst's role and powers is that he doesn't die easily. We've made two efforts (collectively) to lynch him, and Captain Hammer twice tried and failed to Nightkill him. The ELE can cope with an unkillable enemy; the Town cannot. Therefore, unless FcoH built a mechanism into the game whereby Pleo can be stripped of kill resistance, he's unlikely to be ELE. One mechanism I did think of, but which appeared not to be correct, was the Freeze Ray. Roosh claimed that it stripped protection from Roosh's Night target – an antiTown power if ever I heard one. Yet Roosh was third party. Roosh claimed to have targeted Pleo on Night 2 (and this is supported by Pleo having no vote on Day 3); on Night 2 Pleo was attacked by Captain Hammer and on Day 3 we tried to lynch Pleo for the second time. So either that's not the mechanism, or Roosh lied about the Freeze Ray's powers. So far, no other mechanism that might deal with Pleo's apparent immunity to death has even been hinted at, except that maybe, somehow, if Pleo were to change sides this might void the immunity. That might be balanced, but I can't think of in-game flavour for it. I'd rather not try lynching Pleo Today if there is no better candidate. On Pollux Pollux's claim is a pseudo-Mason. His coGroupie, Almost Human, was not told whether Pollux was Town or not. We know AH was Town, so we can trust her word that she didn't know Pollux's alignment. It is entirely possible that Pollux is ELE. Looking at D08.050, the infamous “slip” does incline me to consider voting Pollux. I'm not placing a vote now for two reasons. One, we still have people shy of the five-post mark and my vote would put us one short of a hammer, and two I want to think a little about Groupie #3. Wherever they've got to.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jun 24, 2009 15:49:26 GMT -5
Heh, after some players complained that my reason for voting for Total was semantics, it's interesting to see others jumping on Pollux for a similar semantic slip. I'll be voting for him, but not yet to avoid the countdown. I don't know that it's worth a vote yet, to be honest. It's a data point, but the sort that could easily be nothing. Those of you voting for Pollux, is his "slip" the only reason? I find it hard to figure out what the groupies were/are. I've said before I don't think the fact Almost was town gives away any sign of Pollux alignment. If we're going in the unknown pool (and I think we should) then we have to choose from Pollux, Natlaw, Mhaye or Pleo. I've already voted Pollux before on gut... No it's a pretty lousy case for a vote - but I'm not ready to for a Pleo-lynch again. Not just yet...
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Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 24, 2009 21:09:00 GMT -5
This is sad. Lame and sad. Lynching me is stupid. Let's look at a few things. First, if I'm an ELE, why would I be advocating the lynch of Pleonast right now? Regardless of whether their Nightkills have been failing, or the ELE have been attempting to recruit, or some other explanation there have been NO NIGHTKILLS for three Nights in a row. This means that the number of total players has only been dropping because of the lynch during the Day. So since the ELE want to drop the numbers as quickly as possible...WHY would an ELE member be advocating the lynch of somebody that's been proven unlynchable/unkillable TWICE over? Especially since if he does not get lynched again, it gives IS an opportunity to investigate yet another unknown, shrinking the pool said ELE can hide in? Reason: An ELE WOULDN'T do that. It would be a moronic play. But guess who tried to convince everyone why it would be a better idea to put off trying to lynch him? I'll give you a hint. From a pragmatic standpoint, the Town will gain more information by delaying my lynch. You already know I couldn't be lynched (twice) earlier. Is testing that claim again more valuable than the information gained from lynching either Pollux or Natlaw? Look very closely at what he's saying here. He's deflecting...not saying anything about voting for who you think is scummiest, which is what the game is about. He's promoting a lynch of information. He thinks we should lynch me or Natlaw because it will provide more information. For crying out loud! A lynch for information ON DAY 8?!?! Also, Pleonast, buddy, pal, you seem to be forgetting that you yourself made a huge stink about being recruitable way back at the beginning of this game. I stand firmly by my theory that if you're recruited, you lose your protection from death. Plus, lynching you doesn't remove the overall town number IF you are still town like you claim. AND it settles that you are still whatever you were at the beginning of the game. BUT if we delay your lynch until tomorrow, and they lynch me (who is town) and then the ELE actually succeed in killing somebody toNight (somebody town obviously) then we're down to 7 tomorrow, which puts the town closer to lynch-or-lose and they'll probably have to lynch you anyway. This way, we keep the numbers up for as long as possible, because we as a town don't know how many people are recruitable. Probably not too many, but really, we don't know. Furthermore, to all of you voting for me because of my "slip." Take a good look at Day 6. I went head-to-head with NAF over whether Pleonast should be lynched again. What side did NAF take? Never trying to lynch Pleo again. Nowhere did I claim Vanilla. My name and role is MAYOR - as you originally point out and then contradict yourself. WHAT. Oh I'm sorry, the fact that everybody else has claimed and said their powers, and you just sneak in with the "I'm the Mayor" and me assuming you're vanilla town isn't a reasonable assumption? How the FUCK am I contradicting myself by assuming you're vanilla town when you give no indication otherwise? That makes NO sense. And seriously, it seems like you were just setting up your claim to cause friction. You gave no indication you had a power. I'm trying to figure out the game set-up, so I chalk you under vanilla town. I'm suspicious for that? Fucking hell. Alright, since Mayor McSnootyPants over there wants to correct me, does anybody else find it weird that there are only TWO vanilla town in this game? Two vanilla town and a buttload of power roles vs. two vanilla scum, a godfather, a strongman, and X? Does this seem unbalanced to anyone else? Anyone at all? If you want to lynch me for my "slip" go ahead, but it's dumb. We have SEVEN Days and Nights of information to look back on. Don't base a vote for me on one mistake that a townie or a scummie could easily make. We have a wealth of information and all things considered I think we as a town are close to winning this, let's not throw it away at the end. Don't be lazy just because the unconfirmed pool is small. Lemme go ahead and give you something else to chew on. On Day 5, my plan for the Kat lynch. Why would I have done that if I were ELE? I would have known that Kat wasn't who she said she was. Thus, it would have been an elaborate plan that would have given me 0% townie cred afterwards. Go me. Also, look at Day 1. SisterCoyote jumps all over me at the beginning. Why? I mean, that brilliant scum plan of ours got two of us in the lead for the lynch and aside from Pleonast, most of the Day revolves around putting the spotlight on us. BRILLIANT move if I were scum. Just...brilliant. Maybe you find me scummy for other reasons, sure. But please for the love of all that is holy, don't just vote for me because of one post. Don't be a little yappy type dog distracted by the shiny. Please.
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Post by sinjin on Jun 24, 2009 21:48:39 GMT -5
Sorry Pollux sounds like you're doing the "crazy sinjin dance" just about now. It never worked for me and I don't think it will work for you. Bygones.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 24, 2009 22:03:29 GMT -5
Meh. My tone's been pretty belligerent (or at least a lot more belligerent than I usually am) for most of the game, I don't think this is any different. As I said yesterDay, I figured you guys would get around to lynching me eventually, but I think you're doing it for a stupid reason and I don't think it's the right time.
For the record, something I'd like to put out there since I thought about it. What if Pleonast was trying to discourage people from investigating him because that's part of the trigger for losing his unkillability? I mean, he did say his PM made it sound like he wouldn't show up town, but what he posted didn't look like it indicated anything any other way. It's just something for IS to think about when he does his investigations. I'd recommend investigating Natlaw toNight anyway if you guys lynch me, but yeah. Just a thought.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jun 25, 2009 0:17:36 GMT -5
I have a very strong feeling that the scum can either NK or try to recruit. Maybe their pool of recruits is limited to only vanilla towns. That would seem like the best way to have a recruiting mechanism and maintain game balance. But that's just conjecture. I strongly believe that scum are concentrating on upping their numbers and if they can distract town into trying to lynch an unlynchable character to buy themselves another day, why wouldn't they. I also think that Mhaye has a point. Scum can still win with an unkillable townie in the mix. Town cannot and until we become aware of some mechanism to break Pleo's invulnerability, it makes sense to me to assume he's town. (Yes, I know I can investigate him. I haven't chosen to yet. You can berate me after the game.)
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 25, 2009 9:23:32 GMT -5
So, Pollux, are you even going to try to explain why you used "kill toNight" instead of "lynch toDay"?
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 25, 2009 9:40:43 GMT -5
You know, NAF pushing the "Groupies are Masons" meme makes a lot of sense now.
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Jun 25, 2009 13:14:36 GMT -5
I have a very strong feeling that the scum can either NK or try to recruit. Maybe their pool of recruits is limited to only vanilla towns. That would seem like the best way to have a recruiting mechanism and maintain game balance. But that's just conjecture. I strongly believe that scum are concentrating on upping their numbers and if they can distract town into trying to lynch an unlynchable character to buy themselves another day, why wouldn't they. I also think that Mhaye has a point. Scum can still win with an unkillable townie in the mix. Town cannot and until we become aware of some mechanism to break Pleo's invulnerability, it makes sense to me to assume he's town. (Yes, I know I can investigate him. I haven't chosen to yet. You can berate me after the game.) I don't think that the 'mechanism that some may consider to be recruitment' just means a plain recruitment instead of kill for scum. Even with a vanilla-only or similar restriction. That rule could just refer to the Dr. Horrible Third Party Special, if his claimed win condition is true (could win either way as long as Hammer death). Similarly how much to believe Pleonast's claim? If he is Dead Bowie, just not an ex-ELE member, would that mean we win while he's still playing (You win when all ELE members are dead.)? But that seems to me that is just reading too much into the rules. About Pollux's supposed slip, if it is would that mean scum already tried to kill Pleonast (kill him again toNight)? Regardless, I still think we should try and kill Pleonast again toNight. We don't know what his condition is to be "recruited" supposedly, so it could have been fulfilled by now. He's the most suspicious on record right now. Except if Pleonast is town and thus posted he role PM truthfully, there is nothing there which even hints he is recruitable. My role description is just color, so his describing him as ex-ELE member is that as well I think. Pleonast, do you still think you're recruitable?
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 25, 2009 14:40:06 GMT -5
I still think I'm recruitable, especially because of the lack of Night kills recently. I don't know what the mechanism is, but I'm thinking the lack of kills means scum are at least trying to do something about it. There's nothing I can do about it, so I don't have any recommendations.
I don't think a third-party who might be able to win with either side would be called recruitment, but who knows.
Actually, it's possible I've been "recruited" and don't know it. So I would count towards the scums' win condition, while not having access to the scum boards or the chance to Night kill. That's another possible explanation for the lack of Night kills. If that's the case, then it's worthwhile to try to lynch me again. But I think there's still one more regular scum out there, and Pollux seems the best candidate to me, right now.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 26, 2009 8:31:12 GMT -5
Well, with no explanation forthcoming, I see no reason to delay further. vote Pollux
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 26, 2009 8:32:55 GMT -5
Oops, have to unvote first. unvote Natlaw vote Pollux
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 26, 2009 9:21:52 GMT -5
Pollux (4) - sinjin, Total Lost, BillMc, Pleonast Pleonast (1) - Pollux
5 votes start the countdown.
--FCOD
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 26, 2009 15:56:53 GMT -5
Well, if no one has anything to say, can someone hammer the vote so we can move on...
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Merestil Haye
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 26, 2009 16:37:06 GMT -5
On Groupies.
Only two people have claimed Groupies. This concerns me primarily because I cannot see how there can be less than three Groupies, unless we assume that Almost Human, who the Mod identified for us as Town-aligned when she was so cruelly slain, either lied to us or was misinformed by the Mod.
I don't think AH would be silly enough to lie to us about the number of Groupies; especially since there was another Groupie who could catch her in a lie. As for Mods telling untruths about roles, that sort of thing doesn't belong in a game unless the players are warned about it beforehand. Everything the Mod tells us about the roles should be true in context.
Consequently, I believe someone has lied about their rolename. The obvious reason is that they are afraid of being lynched if they admit they're the groupie.
Two questions arise; who is it, and why are they lying? Let's look at each case in turn, starting with me. I know I am not lying (although you don't) but also that I have no way of proving my powers and thus showing I am who I say. Since I have no way of disproving an allegation of Groupie-dom, I am not going to try. I am not a groupie. All you can do is trust me or lynch me.
Firstly, I don't believe it is Inner Stickler. He's claiming a role that exists (at least, zlw told us that it exists, and since he's dead we can trust his testimony.) No-one else counterclaims. He's behaving as if he is what he claims. I think we can leave him aside.
I also don't think it's Pollux, because we know (from the late AH's testimony) that Pollux is groupie #1. Somehow I don't see a groupie claiming that he's really a different groupie; and above all, AH should have known. It's the sort of information her role would give her.
I can see the Man who Smells Like Poo being a cover claim, and additionally he's asserting he's vanilla, so there is no way to check the claim.
Somehow I doubt that Pleo is the missing groupie. The main reason is simply this; Pleo nameclaimed on Day 2, before the brouhaha about Groupie #3 really began. At that point, Pleo could have claimed Groupie #3 without risk of too much suspicion. Instead he chose to make a fairly outre name claim.
We should be able to trust the attested four, assuming they are Townies (and, as mentioned earlier, if one of them is not Town, that implies IS is a liar or misled.) Even TL has flat-out denied she's a Groupie.
My conclusion is that if there is a Groupie #3 (and I believe there is) then the most likely candidate is Natlaw.
I can't think of a pro-Town reason for Natlaw to conceal this.
Vote: Natlaw.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jun 26, 2009 19:12:39 GMT -5
That makes a lot of sense. I'd like to see Natlaw's response but I think Mhaye has some interesting points.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 26, 2009 21:00:38 GMT -5
Natlaw was my prime suspect until Pollux made the big slip. I think the latter is the better lynch candidate. It's probably wise to investigate the other (or MHaye).
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 26, 2009 21:25:48 GMT -5
There's something to be said for waiting to investigate MHaye. I'm still suspicious of him, and if he really is a Doc that could be keeping him alive.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 26, 2009 23:43:37 GMT -5
So, Pollux, are you even going to try to explain why you used "kill toNight" instead of "lynch toDay"? What's there to explain, it was a mistake. Oops? You know, NAF pushing the "Groupies are Masons" meme makes a lot of sense now. Sure, if makes sense if I'm scum. But you're making a logical fallacy. You're using something that requires me to be proven scum as a case against me, when it's not yet proven I'm scum. Well, if no one has anything to say, can someone hammer the vote so we can move on... After I'm dead and am town, remember who was pushing to get the Day over with and me lynched as quickly as possible.
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 27, 2009 0:12:34 GMT -5
After I'm dead and am town, remember who was pushing to get the Day over with and me lynched as quickly as possible. I was the only player who posted during a 27-hour period. I don't think anyone was missing out on saying anything. You certainly weren't in a hurry to try to convince us you're not scum. "Oops" isn't going to change anyone's mind.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 27, 2009 0:29:53 GMT -5
WIFOM, maybe, but I don't think Pollux is struggling hard enough to be scum. Don't wanna lynch MHaye yet, and I don't see anybody getting on the Pleo wagon at this point.
Vote: Natlaw
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Post by Inner Stickler on Jun 27, 2009 1:28:23 GMT -5
I said I'd like to see Natlaw's response to Mhaye's post and I still do but I will Vote: Natlaw
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Natlaw
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Post by Natlaw on Jun 27, 2009 4:26:07 GMT -5
I can see the Man who Smells Like Poo being a cover claim, and additionally he's asserting he's vanilla, so there is no way to check the claim. <snip> We should be able to trust the attested four, assuming they are Townies (and, as mentioned earlier, if one of them is not Town, that implies IS is a liar or misled.) Even TL has flat-out denied she's a Groupie. My conclusion is that if there is a Groupie #3 (and I believe there is) then the most likely candidate is Natlaw. I can't think of a pro-Town reason for Natlaw to conceal this. Of course my pro-town reason to not claim Groupie #3 is that I'm not Groupie #3. I do agree with your conclusion that because no-one claimed Groupie #3 (s)he is not town. Not sure there must be a Groupie #3 as it could also be a cover role. Sister Coyote claimed Bad Horse Chorus Guy and NAF Moving Guy #1 so I think it save to assume they knew they could safely claim that. I decided against voting Pollux last night to not start the count down. Out of the not investigated pool, he seemed the best option, since Pleonast proved not killable so far. Combining MHaye's argument with my earlier post about Pollux (mm reply 61, it's still at the top of the page for me). If he is scum that would make two Groupies scum and I would have expected them to claim it earlier as a 'scum masonry'. So that leaves me with: vote PleonastThe way to check my claim would be investigate me (at least the town alignment part), though a lynch works for that as well .
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 27, 2009 10:00:14 GMT -5
Pollux (4) - sinjin, Total Lost, BillMc, Pleonast Natlaw (3) - MHaye, KidV, Inner Stickler Pleonast (2) - Pollux, Natlaw
Four hours to go!
--FCOD
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Post by Pleonast on Jun 27, 2009 11:09:15 GMT -5
Pollux (4) - sinjin, Total Lost, BillMc, Pleonast Natlaw (3) - MHaye, KidV, Inner Stickler Pleonast (2) - Pollux, Natlaw Four hours to go! --FCOD Must complete this bizarre symmetry: unvote Polluxvote Pleonast
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Post by KidVermicious on Jun 27, 2009 11:38:10 GMT -5
*blink*
Pleo, whatcha doin'?
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 27, 2009 11:55:28 GMT -5
Pollux (3*) - sinjin, Total Lost, BillMc Natlaw (3) - MHaye, KidV, Inner Stickler Pleonast (3) - Pollux, Natlaw, Pleonast
Two hours to go!
--FCOD
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