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Post by Chronos on Mar 6, 2012 13:57:36 GMT -5
Y'know, on thinking about it, I don't think Pleo can be a PFK. Or at least, if he is, he's edited a heck of a lot more of his PM than the alignment section.
The problem is that, from what he posted, he can win even if dead. Picture, for example, a hypothetical scenario where all the Scum (and any other PFKs, if there are any) are dead and the Joker is at n-1 kills including a Town and a Scum. All of the other players vote for the Joker, and the Joker joins his own bandwagon. What happens if we assume that the Joker is PFK? Well, the Town would then have killed all the Scum and PFKs, which would be a Town win condition, and the Joker would have gotten his n kills including one each Town, Scum, and Other (himself), which would be a Joker win condition. But Word of Mod is that it's impossible for a PFK to win with Town or Scum.
But even aside from that, I think everyone can agree that Pleo is neither Town nor Scum, right? That makes lynching him at best equivalent to voting "no lynch": Yes, we're guaranteed not to hit a Townie that way, but we're likewise guaranteed not to hit a Scum. I trust that everyone already understands why it's a bad idea to No Lynch on Day 1? And that's just the best case: If he is, in fact, a Third Party as he claims, then lynching him is unambiguously a mislynch.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Mar 6, 2012 13:59:24 GMT -5
Can someone compile a vote count and a deadline? Deadline is on Thursday afternoon. For votes, I have this. Briefly: Pleonast - 10 Hal - 4 texcat - 3 nine poeple tied at 1 In detail: mahaloth (1): Inner Stickler (11) Special Ed (1): Chronos (45-406), Meeko (46-238), Pleonast (237) Chronos (1): Cookies (47-357), peeker (87) peeker (1): askthepizzaguy (115) Drain Bead (1): guiri (140) Inner Stickler (0): Silver Jan (185-300)Rysto (1): mahaloth (196) Silver Jan (0): SBrOwn (200-419)Idle Thoughts (0): Hal Briston (205-458)Meeko (1): Suburban Plankton (206-455), Pleonast (237-237), Scathach (421) Suburban Plankton (0): Meeko (238-345)Pleonast (10): Pollux Oil (271-271), Cookies (357), Nanook (359), texcat (382), astralrejection (407), Total Ullz (410-411), SBrOwn (419), Gadarene (436), sinjin (338), BillMc (449), Suburban Plankton (455), Special Ed (469) Hal Briston (4): Pollux Oil (271), LightFoot (283), Silver Jan (300), Meeko (345) Gadarene (1): Chronos (406) texcat (3): Total Ullz (411), Hal Briston (458), Drain Bead (501) Cookies (1): gnarlycharlie (432)
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Post by special on Mar 6, 2012 14:03:21 GMT -5
Chronos, that changes if he alter parts of his PM. Maybe he does need to be alive. Maybe lots of things. He's a very smart player.
Additionally doesn't storyteller have a history of providing cover roles for PFK as well?
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Post by peekercpa on Mar 6, 2012 14:04:12 GMT -5
Jan, how do you know Pleo is being honest? Maybe he can only kill Town Weren't there dueling serial killers in one of story's evil dead games? from personal experience i can answer in the affirmative. evil dead.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Mar 6, 2012 14:04:55 GMT -5
Y'know, on thinking about it, I don't think Pleo can be a PFK. Or at least, if he is, he's edited a heck of a lot more of his PM than the alignment section. The problem is that, from what he posted, he can win even if dead. Picture, for example, a hypothetical scenario where all the Scum (and any other PFKs, if there are any) are dead and the Joker is at n-1 kills including a Town and a Scum. All of the other players vote for the Joker, and the Joker joins his own bandwagon. What happens if we assume that the Joker is PFK? Well, the Town would then have killed all the Scum and PFKs, which would be a Town win condition, and the Joker would have gotten his n kills including one each Town, Scum, and Other (himself), which would be a Joker win condition. But Word of Mod is that it's impossible for a PFK to win with Town or Scum. But even aside from that, I think everyone can agree that Pleo is neither Town nor Scum, right? That makes lynching him at best equivalent to voting "no lynch": Yes, we're guaranteed not to hit a Townie that way, but we're likewise guaranteed not to hit a Scum. I trust that everyone already understands why it's a bad idea to No Lynch on Day 1? And that's just the best case: If he is, in fact, a Third Party as he claims, then lynching him is unambiguously a mislynch. Interesting theory. I personally don't want to test it. We're not going to let Pleo live long enough to have an opportunity to win. Everyone knows that. So Pleo has no incentive to 'play nice'. He has absolutely nothing to lose, which makes him in a way more dangerous than the Scum.
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Post by peekercpa on Mar 6, 2012 14:05:33 GMT -5
Jan, how do you know Pleo is being honest? Maybe he can only kill Town Weren't there dueling serial killers in one of story's evil dead games? Yes. As I recall Peeker was one of them. And as I recall they could talk in private as well. well if you consider hurling insults and questioning ancestry to be "talk" then yes you are correct.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Mar 6, 2012 14:20:08 GMT -5
Yes. As I recall Peeker was one of them. And as I recall they could talk in private as well. well if you consider hurling insults and questioning ancestry to be "talk" then yes you are correct. I never got around to read that thread. Now I just have to
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Post by Silver Jan on Mar 6, 2012 14:20:30 GMT -5
WIN CONDITION: You will win with any side if you are responsible for at least 10 deaths, including at least one Town player, one Scum player, and one Third-Party/PFK player. Any lynch in which you have a standing vote for the eventual lynch-ee at Day's end will count toward this total, as will any death stemming from your own powers. Read more: idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=dds&action=display&thread=1885&page=7#ixzz1oMioHtXzThis is Pleos' wincon, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself, he just has to be involved in the killing of such a person. I really should just save my breath, I am a relative newbie here. If he is a PFK then that should become obvious very quickly. He knows his post is going to picked apart and dissected and and... but really? I think everyone is paranoid, as they should be be but this is really OTT. How much harm can he do in one Night? I am not sure that my vote is in the right place but at least it saves me from doing an OMGYS vote. Has everyone checked in yet?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Mar 6, 2012 14:26:29 GMT -5
Evening folks. Just back after a long day, so this might ramble a bit. On Pleo's claim. Pleo's aim, in participating in this game, is to enjoy himself and try to win. Those people who are criticising him for anti-Town behaviour miss the point. Pleo is not Town-aligned, he is self-aligned - that is, he is a team of one. He has chosen to claim, and align himself with one of the two main power blocs, in order to maximise his chance of winning - given the information he had at the time of claim plus reasonable conjecture. I found myself, last night, reading a considerable chunk of a game in which Pleo participated because he had a similar role (although not so dramatic or central to canon). In Alien Taste II, run on the Giraffe boards, Pleo was Grant Hutchison, a Third Party with a particular animus against one of the two Town factions. He won if he survived and Town won, or if he survived and the Aliens won. He could even be recruited, and still win with the Aliens. He waited to claim until Day 6. It's obvious from the tone of his claim post that he felt painted into a corner by events, and claimed because he had to, fully expecting to be killed by the faction he could not win with in the Night. I suspect that a memory of this situation might have helped push him into claiming early, while he still had freedom to manoevre. At least he's not claimed Vanilla Town (or Town power) straight out of the gate. If Pleo hasn't honestly claimed his role, then what he is likely hiding is that he is really a PFK. I don't consider it likely that a Mafiate would make a claim like Pleo has done, with a non-Town alignment. This group has a history of lynching self-aligned players when they shouldn't. One the subject of malice, what it means in the context of this game is that a player is malicious if they win at the expense of both Town and Mafia. In the last game, The Joker was malicious, but so was The Riddler - and Hal didn't have to kill anybody to win. Pleo's claim is a non-malicious self-aligned player.
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Post by Dirx on Mar 6, 2012 14:28:46 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself (assuming his wincon is true, which I don't), but he'll likely never reach his stated wincon that way. There's no way this game is balanced in a way that 10+ Days is a likely possibility. Players experience burnout way before then. Instead, there's very probably a whole lot of killing available, bringing the game down to a more manageable 4-7 or so Days, give or take.
I'm not at all opposed to a Pleo lynch, for the same reasons that have been stated several times over. We simply can't trust that he's telling the truth, and even if he is, he's still not Town. I'd like to be able to leave him for a NK, but between outing roles via watching or whatever and his own claimed NK immunity/retaliation mask power, I'd feel better just getting him out of the way now.
I think the case that has started on Texcat is interesting, and I'd like to see how she defends herself.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Mar 6, 2012 14:29:24 GMT -5
WIN CONDITION: You will win with any side if you are responsible for at least 10 deaths, including at least one Town player, one Scum player, and one Third-Party/PFK player. Any lynch in which you have a standing vote for the eventual lynch-ee at Day's end will count toward this total, as will any death stemming from your own powers. Read more: idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=dds&action=display&thread=1885&page=7#ixzz1oMioHtXzThis is Pleos' wincon, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself, he just has to be involved in the killing of such a person. I really should just save my breath, I am a relative newbie here. If he is a PFK then that should become obvious very quickly. He knows his post is going to picked apart and dissected and and... but really? I think everyone is paranoid, as they should be be but this is really OTT. How much harm can he do in one Night? I am not sure that my vote is in the right place but at least it saves me from doing an OMGYS vote. Has everyone checked in yet? Emphasis mine. Please explain how we can tell the difference between a 'PFK Serial Killer kill' and a 'non-malicious 3rd-Party Serial Killer kill'.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Mar 6, 2012 14:30:30 GMT -5
NETA: change 'kill' in my last post to 'death which he may or may not have directly caused, but definitely played a part in',
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Post by Silver Jan on Mar 6, 2012 14:36:31 GMT -5
WIN CONDITION: You will win with any side if you are responsible for at least 10 deaths, including at least one Town player, one Scum player, and one Third-Party/PFK player. Any lynch in which you have a standing vote for the eventual lynch-ee at Day's end will count toward this total, as will any death stemming from your own powers. Read more: idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=dds&action=display&thread=1885&page=7#ixzz1oMioHtXzThis is Pleos' wincon, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself, he just has to be involved in the killing of such a person. I really should just save my breath, I am a relative newbie here. If he is a PFK then that should become obvious very quickly. He knows his post is going to picked apart and dissected and and... but really? I think everyone is paranoid, as they should be be but this is really OTT. How much harm can he do in one Night? I am not sure that my vote is in the right place but at least it saves me from doing an OMGYS vote. Has everyone checked in yet? Emphasis mine. Please explain how we can tell the difference between a 'PFK Serial Killer kill' and a 'non-malicious 3rd-Party Serial Killer kill'. I hadn't really thought that through
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Post by Pollux Oil on Mar 6, 2012 14:47:15 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself (assuming his wincon is true, which I don't), but he'll likely never reach his stated wincon that way. There's no way this game is balanced in a way that 10+ Days is a likely possibility. Players experience burnout way before then. Instead, there's very probably a whole lot of killing available, bringing the game down to a more manageable 4-7 or so Days, give or take. Original Arkham wasn't supposed to last 10 Days either, but it did, partly because all the third-party killers were offed so quickly. Just sayin'.
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Post by Pleonast on Mar 6, 2012 14:58:05 GMT -5
We're not going to let Pleo live long enough to have an opportunity to win. Everyone knows that. So Pleo has no incentive to 'play nice'. He has absolutely nothing to lose, which makes him in a way more dangerous than the Scum. This is a strange statement to make, and you've made it more than once. There are simple ways for people who have no reason to trust each to interact for mutual benefit. Simply by taking small, verifiable steps. For example, Day One, town doesn't lynch me and I use my Day kill as directed by town. This is very transparent, either the player I say I Day kill dies or they don't. Day Two, town doesn't lynch me and I use another power in a pro-town manner. I report the power I used and I'm either lynched for lying or not. The next Day is the same. There doesn't need to be trust beyond the current step. The fact that you're trying to prevent any collaboration (even on Day One when the results will be immediate and obvious) points to a motivation that is not town-oriented.
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Post by Pleonast on Mar 6, 2012 15:01:02 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself (assuming his wincon is true, which I don't), but he'll likely never reach his stated wincon that way. There's no way this game is balanced in a way that 10+ Days is a likely possibility. Players experience burnout way before then. Instead, there's very probably a whole lot of killing available, bringing the game down to a more manageable 4-7 or so Days, give or take. Where are you getting 10 Days from? I get credit for every lynch I vote on. I get credit for every death indirectly caused by one of powers. I could win in 5 Days/Nights if everything went my way.
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Post by Gadarene on Mar 6, 2012 15:08:43 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself (assuming his wincon is true, which I don't), but he'll likely never reach his stated wincon that way. There's no way this game is balanced in a way that 10+ Days is a likely possibility. Players experience burnout way before then. Instead, there's very probably a whole lot of killing available, bringing the game down to a more manageable 4-7 or so Days, give or take. Where are you getting 10 Days from? I get credit for every lynch I vote on. I get credit for every death indirectly caused by one of powers. I could win in 5 Days/Nights if everything went my way. Which means you'd have to cause 5 deaths, many/most of which, statistically speaking, are likely to be townies. That's the point Suburban was making, in response to Silver Jan saying that you could basically just vote the lead wagon every day and win that way without having a more direct hand in people's deaths.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Mar 6, 2012 15:16:25 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to kill anyone himself (assuming his wincon is true, which I don't), but he'll likely never reach his stated wincon that way. There's no way this game is balanced in a way that 10+ Days is a likely possibility. Players experience burnout way before then. Instead, there's very probably a whole lot of killing available, bringing the game down to a more manageable 4-7 or so Days, give or take. Where are you getting 10 Days from? I get credit for every lynch I vote on. I get credit for every death indirectly caused by one of powers. I could win in 5 Days/Nights if everything went my way. Yes, you could win in 5 Days/Nights. And all the rest of us could lose at the same time. If you can come up with a way that you can prove your alignment, so that we can know Your Win =/= Our Loss, then maybe we can negotiate. Failing that, what do you expect the rest of us to do? Do you really think we're just going to 'take your word for it'?
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Post by special on Mar 6, 2012 15:18:47 GMT -5
Pleo, can you only win with town or scum? Not with a PFK?
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Post by special on Mar 6, 2012 15:19:42 GMT -5
Never mind. Found the win con. So hard to look back in the phone app
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Post by Silver Jan on Mar 6, 2012 15:27:08 GMT -5
From what I have read and understood, Pleo can only win with......... there is nothing there to say that he can win all by his likkle self.
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Post by Pleonast on Mar 6, 2012 15:29:47 GMT -5
Which means you'd have to cause 5 deaths, many/most of which, statistically speaking, are likely to be townies. Didn't someone look at the numbers of the last game and find that only half the players were town? If you can come up with a way that you can prove your alignment, so that we can know Your Win =/= Our Loss, then maybe we can negotiate. Failing that, what do you expect the rest of us to do? Do you really think we're just going to 'take your word for it'? You just don't understand how to negotiate do you? No proof is necessary. No one has to trust anyone. We do this one Day at a time. Each Day the situation can be reevaluated. And the by way, your "prove your alignment" criterion is unrealistic. Very few players can do it. Can you prove your alignment? If not, why should anyone bother to negotiate with you? The answer is we don't need trust to negotiate. We evaluate each Day. And ultimately your attitude (others are displaying it as well) is why there's no cost for me to claim early. Since I can't prove my alignment, I can be lynched by the "they can't prove it" argument at any time, no matter what I claim. Getting lynched Day One is no different than getting lynched Day Four, in terms of winning or not.
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Post by special on Mar 6, 2012 15:34:16 GMT -5
What's also missing is what happens to him if he achieves his win condition while still alive. Does he just leave the game? What happens?
I know win conditions like that have occurred before. Was is Seamus or something in a Nintendo game?
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Post by special on Mar 6, 2012 15:34:50 GMT -5
Samus, autocorrect
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Post by Gadarene on Mar 6, 2012 15:36:16 GMT -5
Which means you'd have to cause 5 deaths, many/most of which, statistically speaking, are likely to be townies. Didn't someone look at the numbers of the last game and find that only half the players were town? Just over half, I think. And I have no reason to think the distribution is gonna be the same here (it certainly is unlikely that there will be a lower proportion of town, for reasons that I explained earlier in this thread). But regardless, feel free to revise my statement to say that of the 5 deaths you'd need to cause by your own hand, some of them, statistically speaking, are likely to be townies. That's some too many, if the argument is (as Silver Jan was suggesting) that you could achieve your win condition without being personally responsible for town deaths.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Mar 6, 2012 15:36:26 GMT -5
And ultimately your attitude (others are displaying it as well) is why there's no cost for me to claim early. Since I can't prove my alignment, I can be lynched by the "they can't prove it" argument at any time, no matter what I claim. Getting lynched Day One is no different than getting lynched Day Four, in terms of winning or not. You're kinda glossing over the part about how pretty much the only reason any Townie would be wanting to lynch you right now is because you claimed, what that claim included, and what may or may not have been excluded from said claim. Do you honestly think you'd be under this amount of lynch pressure if you hadn't claimed? Because that is what it sounds like you're saying, and it is a bit baffling.
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Post by Chronos on Mar 6, 2012 15:36:50 GMT -5
The rules post also leaves open the possibility that a PFK might win with one or more other PFKs/third parties. But since we don't know of any such other people other than Pleo, probably he himself doesn't know whether he can win with any of them.
Meanwhile, I have something else to add. Back when I was trying to get people to post an encoded piece of their PM? I do honestly think it's a good idea anyway, but I also have reason to believe that it would be even more effective this game. You see, I know what one of the cover roles is. In my role PM, Storyteller told me that if someone showed up claiming to be <redacted>, they're probably lying. If we can get most of the players to commit to their role PM before this Day is over, I'll say who the role is, and hopefully, we'll end up with one of the Scum being screwed (obviously it would be counterproductive for me to say who now, because if I did, the Scum would just not use that false claim).
I remember someone saying that their first sentence was something generic that could apply to anyone. In that case, just pick the second sentence, or the third one, or whatever: Something that does apply specifically to your role.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Mar 6, 2012 15:46:56 GMT -5
Can someone compile a vote count and a deadline? Deadline is on Thursday afternoon. For votes, I have this. Briefly: Pleonast - 10 Hal - 4 texcat - 3 nine poeple tied at 1 Wow. Ok. Something hit the fan. Let me get caught up, and contemplate the OTHER voting situation going on today. [Super Tuesday.]
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Mar 6, 2012 15:48:05 GMT -5
I remember someone saying that their first sentence was something generic that could apply to anyone. In that case, just pick the second sentence, or the third one, or whatever: Something that does apply specifically to your role. That was BillMc. So you want us to pick a sentence from the PM. Post the first letter of every word and the number of the sentence. I don't mind that at all. I'd be willing to give this a try.
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Post by Meeko on Mar 6, 2012 15:52:48 GMT -5
NETA: 4. Meekoi've only played with him one and he was scum. he was nailed for not having his usual verbose style. i believe that this is first game since then. unless he's been able to rein in his playstyle since then, i'm thinking he's town. As I stated earlier, I found work since my last Mafia game, as a player. I will participate when I can, but I don't know next week's schedule until tuesday. [ ]
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