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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Oct 11, 2007 23:23:38 GMT -5
Also, what mean q.v. ? Me no understand. (this is in reference to Dio's post) Sorry. I'm a Latin geek. q.v. stands for quo vide, which means "which see". It just means "Check out"
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Post by Zeriel on Oct 11, 2007 23:30:34 GMT -5
I'm going to go out on a gut feeling limb here now. Based on nameclaim and general defense of drain bead/offense against Cookies for that minor slip, plus vote analysis from Hal...
vote Catinasuit
Is it just me, or should the scum have a lot fewer people in this game relative to the townies, based on what we've seen so far of the power roles?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 11, 2007 23:31:45 GMT -5
You don't know if I'm a Sneaky Sam character, just like you haven't for the entire game. But with the death of our cop, my value increases exponentially for the town. And lynching me is the only way that I might start outing power roles, if I were. (A Sneaky Sam sort of character wouldn't be able to tell all if he was nightvigged, I assume)
Mr. Universe only sells the crew out under pain of death from the Operative (who kills him anyways). Greedy's gone, so canon-wise, the crew is safe from my cowardly nature. But Kaylee's role shows that canon means crapola in this game. True, but all of the bolding part (which is mine) just strikes me as threat-sounding. Anyway, regarding the people you watch at Night, do you see their actions AND get their name? Or maybe she knew? Again, I'm suspicious of Hockey (she's now my top suspect, if I had to choose who I'm most suspicious of) and you, once, said she was sleeping one Night. If she IS scum, maybe she was the one that did the deed that Night and you saying that she was sleeping tip them off not to kill you (or continue blocking you)? Idle thoughts to chew on. I WANT to believe you but what of all these things? What ease to have have for minds? No clue, but I don't know about Hockey.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 11, 2007 23:39:12 GMT -5
Mornin' all. That was not a good night for the town. So long and farewell, atarus and FCoD. Time to start looking through the posts and see what remains. If anyone has any questions about my actions, I would prefer it if you asked first voted later, not the other way around.
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 11, 2007 23:41:53 GMT -5
...and of course we don't eve know if drain bead was telling the truth about her block targets...
I won't vote until after I've had a good (rl) night of sleep, but right now I think I'll point a big fat FoS pygmy rugger for being the hammer three Days in a row now. I think I did have some minor suspicions of him otherwise (plus the history I had with him in Asylum Lane), but I'll need a reread to verify the pings in my scumdar.
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Oct 11, 2007 23:44:06 GMT -5
True, but all of the bolding part (which is mine) just strikes me as threat-sounding.
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Post by dnooman on Oct 11, 2007 23:46:37 GMT -5
Hmm. If I were another player, I'd be most suspicious of dnooman and Cat in a suit, with a bias towards Cat just because we know that we're being misled by names. I've been under the assumption that you've been essentially cleared based on our ridiculous metagaming of the Vanilla Role PM. Then again, I don't remember who was backing you on that, and because it was one Day One, I don't know if the people that cleared you actually turned out to be Vanillas. Cat's roleclaim as Wash, of course, is now just as suspect as anyone else. The only person that really seems cleared is Mad, as the surviving member of a Mason pair. Roosh's claim of Inara seems just as questionable. I don't see why you think that Cat's all of a sudden more lynchworthy, though. Mostly because of the vanilla claim. That's the safest bet no? The two of us were the lone vanilla claimants on the list, and I only know for sure which team I'm on. Meh. Do what you feel is best. This will go on record as the game in which I played the poorest. IMO, we've had enough vanilla townies die, that a claim of "vanilla" should be at least scrutinized. I'm tired, a bit drunk, and REALLY not looking forward to waking up in four hours. We'd better lynch another scum today, else I'm gonna pout like a four year old girl. Also, I am a four year old girl.
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 11, 2007 23:48:24 GMT -5
...and of course we don't eve know if drain bead was telling the truth about her block targets... Don't EVEN, even. Yeesh. There's no Eve on these boards...but maybe we can talk her into playing if we did a Silver Screen Actors and Actresses Mafia? ;D
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Parzival
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Post by Parzival on Oct 11, 2007 23:52:59 GMT -5
Here's a handy-dandy claim chart, which I had put in a spreadsheet. If people want I can post this in a separate thread. I removed the "alignment" because it appears we don't have any alternate alignments, and who's going to claim not to be "crew"? Player | Role/Powers | Name | Post | Votes when claiming | dnooman | Alliance Citizen | Sheriff Bourne | (1.506) | 9/15 | Roosh | Vengeance(50%) | Inara Serra | (1.601) | 8 | Mad the Swine | Mason | Hector Sanchez | (1.767 et seq.) | 6 | zuma/dotchan | Alliance Citizen | Ramiro | (1.864) | 2 |
[/color][/tr] [tr][td]Diomedes[/td][td]Tracker [/td][td]Mr. Universe[/td][td]1.508[/td][td]5[/td][/tr] [tr][td]CatinaSuit[/td][td]Vanilla Crewperson[/td][td]Hoban "Wash" Washburne[/td][td]1.695[/td][td]10[/td][/tr] [tr][td]whatthefrak[/td][td]Bodyguard(50%)[/td][td]Zoe Washburne[/td][td]2.540[/td][td]9/13[/td][/tr] [tr][td]ui/tragic[/td][td]Vanilla Crewperson[/td][td]Badger[/td][td] [/td][td] [/td][/color][/tr] [tr] [td]drainbead[/td][td]RoleBlocker[/td][td]Kaywinnit Lee Frye[/td][td]3.182[/td][td]9/12[/td][/color][/tr] [tr][td]ComeTotheDarkSide[/td][td]Seeking Mingo[/td][td]Fanty[/td][td]3.224[/td][td]6[/td][/tr] [/tr] [/table] I don't have exact references, but I have notes saying that: Flying Cow of Doom claimed having a non-canonical name (which turns out to be true) Sinjin/nesta claimed a minor power role.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Oct 12, 2007 0:01:12 GMT -5
<snip> I won't vote until after I've had a good (rl) night of sleep, but right now I think I'll point a big fat FoS pygmy rugger for being the hammer three Days in a row now. I think I did have some minor suspicions of him otherwise (plus the history I had with him in Asylum Lane), but I'll need a reread to verify the pings in my scumdar. Would you rather I had not hammered yesterDay? The first one was on your previous incarnation, so I can understand your hurt feelings on that one. WIFOM if you will, but if I were scum, I wouldn't just go around hammering people, all suspicious like, every chance I got. Day 2 was the only one I felt was a bad decision (more-so bad timing), and only because I inadvertently cut off an adjacent conversation.
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Parzival
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Post by Parzival on Oct 12, 2007 0:05:10 GMT -5
Speaking of previous claims, what have you been up to, whatthefrak? You don't have to share if you don't want to, but in my opinion most information helps the town at least as much as it may aid scum.
Anyone else have an assault on them yet? Or anything else unusual?
I don't much like Diomedes reading, yet again. It's another potential scum-helping tactic - it sets up a chance for someone to make a false claim, and have him say, "oh yes, they're the town power role I saw".
I'm not saying you should reveal anything yet. I'm just saying you haven't really improved your position in my eyes.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 12, 2007 0:05:58 GMT -5
It's not a threat. It's a warning of the consequences of lynching me. So you ARE a Sneaky Sam type role? Yeah, in case you missed the last two times I said why I'm suspicious of her. Those things, plus the fact that she one-off voted on Day one AND the fact she seemed to be okay with going after more players to out more power roles.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Oct 12, 2007 0:07:44 GMT -5
I've been looking at atarus' Day 1 posts.
1.165 (responding to Roosh)
He gave a fairly heavy FOS but didn't actually vote for Roosh.
Later in the Day, atarus gave an analysis of CatInASuit and voted for him, but unvoted after Cat's claim.
It looks plausible that ataurus would investigate Roosh or CatInASuit that Night.
During Day 2, atarus didn't come out swinging at either of these players: Roosh barely rated a mention and Cat was off his radar:
2.460
Atarus is hedging a bit with "I haven't given up the entire possibility that Cat is scum-aligned", so it seems that he didn't investigate Cat.
Overall, this looks like a point in favour of Roosh.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 12, 2007 0:08:02 GMT -5
Speaking of previous claims, what have you been up to, whatthefrak? You don't have to share if you don't want to, but in my opinion most information helps the town at least as much as it may aid scum. [off game]Boy do I wish you were playing in Mafia: The Conspiracy. Especially on Day Two[/off game]
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 12, 2007 0:17:22 GMT -5
[oog]Anyone feel like bailing me out of being a putz and subbing for me in the lolcat game?[/oog]
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Oct 12, 2007 0:53:43 GMT -5
So you ARE a Sneaky Sam type role? No. I'm a bad target for a lynch, even if I was. I can't provide proof of what I am until I come across a scum role. When I do, I imagine I'll be nightkilled shortly thereafter. Reasonable.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 12, 2007 7:57:11 GMT -5
Well, here we are again. A bad Night, but at least it was a bad Night following a good Day. I have a bunch of loosely connected thoughts, which I will share in a few separate posts in the next few hours (I have a staff meeting that will prevent me from putting them all into the present post), but first, a request:
I don't see pygmy rugger's status as the hammer vote on three straight Days as a point either against him or in his favor. I think that the hammer vote is, for all intents and purposes, a mechanistic action rather than a strategic one - it is a recognition that the crew as a whole has made its decision.
However, yesterDay was the second time that a Day was ended with a few people having things still to say. I'd like to suggest that, unless we are under deadline pressure, any player contemplating a hammer vote just floats a general - I'm going to hammer in T-minus ten minutes; anyone have anything they need to say? That will give anyone who is preparing a long post the chance to jump in and say "no, wait, don't hammer, I've got something to say first." What think?
--------------
So, status report:
20 players remain:
Blaster Master Captain Klutz CatinaSuit CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies Diomedes Dnooman dotchan (CaerieD) Hal Briston hockey monkey Idle Thoughts Mad the Swine mhaye mtgman nesta (sinjin) panamajack Pygmy Rugger Roosh storyteller whatthefrak Zeriel (Yattara)
Of the 20, 7 have outstanding role claims (the ones marked in bold). That leaves 13 players with no claims. Some folks have received very little attention so far, but this is the first game I've played in which I don't feel that anyone, really, is lurking or slipping entirely under the radar, so hooray to everyone who's playing for actually playing).
--------------------------
Early thoughts to follow after my meeting.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Oct 12, 2007 8:35:00 GMT -5
I think Drain was lying about the low percentage.. that was her made-up reasoning trying to sow misinformation about how the scum operate. Why she didn't attempt to block me in future nights... well, I have no clue. Perhaps she hoped I was a Sneaky Sam sort of role? Perhaps I was semi-clearing some town (Yatarra or Hockey are scum?) Perhaps she was hoping that by doing so, I would eventually back her, and she hoped that with my help, along with her fellow scum, that she would be able to avoid lynching? ...Still catching up, so this may have already been responded to by someone else, but here's my take on it. Take everything that drain bead said once she became a prime lynch candidate and throw it straight out the window. We have absolutely no way of being able to discern which parts (if any) are truthful, which are bold-faced lies, and which are intended to deceive us. Scum may try to latch onto certain individuals to drag them down with them, or to bluff us out and make us think they're clean. IOW, all this "I blocked so-and-so" is a fool's errand to try to interpret.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Oct 12, 2007 8:50:05 GMT -5
Would you rather I had not hammered yesterDay? The first one was on your previous incarnation, so I can understand your hurt feelings on that one. WIFOM if you will, but if I were scum, I wouldn't just go around hammering people, all suspicious like, every chance I got. Day 2 was the only one I felt was a bad decision (more-so bad timing), and only because I inadvertently cut off an adjacent conversation. Being a hammer is a null tell. In fact, I was very glad that you did it on Day One. However, on the subsequent Days, you deliberately hammered early and while conversation was still occurring. Further, on both Days you had other individuals who had voiced a promise to be the hammer; on Day Two, that was me, but soon after I said that BlaM! down comes the hammer. Yesterday, I believe MHaye said he would hammer, then you hammer again. In both cases, it served to make some others look bad for not having final votes, it ends the conversation early, and it affords you this "Why would I do this if I were scum?" defense. Right now, you're pretty much tied with Hockey Monkey at the top of my suspicion list, and since you're here, we have an opportunity to fully examine you.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Oct 12, 2007 8:58:07 GMT -5
However, yesterDay was the second time that a Day was ended with a few people having things still to say. I'd like to suggest that, unless we are under deadline pressure, any player contemplating a hammer vote just floats a general - I'm going to hammer in T-minus ten minutes; anyone have anything they need to say? That will give anyone who is preparing a long post the chance to jump in and say "no, wait, don't hammer, I've got something to say first." What think? I think this is a good idea. And this is also why I find Pygmy Rugger's hammering suspicious, precisely because it is a null tell AND in the face of other individuals hammering but giving warning. I outlined the potential scum motivations for doing so, but I'm unable to imagine a pro-town motivation for hammering early in the face of other individuals having already promised to do so.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 12, 2007 10:07:15 GMT -5
General thoughts on the way to Yosemite...
My top suspects at this point are Cat, Dio and Hockey. I agree with the hammer countdown idea, and also see Pygmy's hammers as basically balancing each other to a null value of suspicion, which in and of itself carries some degree of net suspicion with it.
Looking at story's list, I seem to have some subs confused? I was thinking that nesta subbed for Yattara...
I'll post at least once more before the car is finished being packed.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Oct 12, 2007 10:09:41 GMT -5
I want to look at the spiff and story feud.
I think it is unlikely they are both town. Fact O' business...I think they both be scum.
Their argument seemed staged.
But I am certain one of them is scum,not sure which one to look at first.
Story's reaction to my suspiscion of him early on seemed over the top...yet spiff came to my defense saying I misremembered.Both these reactions seemed odd to me.
Spiffs math(which is confusing to many of us) seems like he is trying to be very helpful for town.But I suspect he realised most of us would be totaly lost with his helpfullness and also realised that(he thought) would strengthen his towniness.
I also believe scum would have killed one of them already if they are town.Story says we are past the point of suspecting someone cause they are still alive...I am not so sure .He wants us to believe that because he is still alive.
I really think they are both scum..but suspect story more at this point..but not by much.
We should kill them both the next two Days.
Vote story
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 12, 2007 10:39:07 GMT -5
OK, on to things of substance.
1. Diomedes To date, most of the arguments for suspecting Diomedes seem to be that his investigations haven't yet uncovered scum. Given that my very rough estimations suggest that he had a 22% chance of catching a killer last Night, and less than that on previous Nights, I think expecting him to have automatically found scum in that time is unfair. Heck, if he were scum, mightn't he have thrown one of his fellows to the wolves just to cement his place as a trusted Crew member?
But toDay's report bothered me. Here's what Diomedessays:
He "discovered a town power role." Now, unless I'm misunderstanding, Dio has claimed to be a watcher-type, not an investigator. He would not have gotten a PM that said "So and So is a pro-town Such and Such." He would have received a PM that a certain player did a certain thing, with no indication of alignment. Why, then, is Diomedes certain that the player in question is pro-town?
After some consideration, it strikes me that if Dio is telling the truth, a bit of thought about the nature of his powers and the current situation strongly suggests that there's only one role-type he could have discovered.
That player - the player who holds that role-type - now has the key to whether Dio is telling the truth. Because the subject of Dio's investigation not only knows what (s)he did last Night, but also who (s)he did it to. This isn't important now, because that person is still hidden. But it may come into play in the future, and I wanted to say something about it in case I'm dead when it comes up.
-----------------------------
2. Blaster Master I'm still suspicious. Just putting it out there. I will not pursue it right now, though, because we have bigger fish to fry.
-----------------------------
Here's the big one:
3. Idle Thoughts Y'all, I think Idle might be scum. YesterDay, I had that feeling very strongly toward the last fourth of the Day, but because I didn't have the time to do the research I kept quiet. Then, after the hammer, I realized that I should have said something, if only to record my suspicion in case I died last Night. But I didn't, so here goes.
It's hard for me to point to one moment, one post, that created this suspicion. There wasn't a decisive slip, or egregiously bad argument, or what have you. My suspicion is borne of an overall reading of his pursuit of drainbead, our late unlamented Alliance spy. I'm not going to quote them all, but they're scattered throughout pages 8-12 (or so) of Day Three. If you're interested, go and read them.
Notice how certain Idle seems that drainbead is scum. How confident. How he dismisses arguments in her favor almost casually. How he seems so focused, so intent, on getting drainbead lynched because he's just completely sure that she is scum.
Notice how, when Cookies offers that she may have information that affects our collective ability to judge whether or not drain might be telling the truth, Idle is supremely unconcerned. He voices what is ostensibly a very pro-Crew opinion - that we want secret info to remain secret - and he's comfortable keeping what Cookies had to say quiet because he was just so confident about his vote for drainbead. And he thought everyone else should be, too.
Now, me, I was nothing resembling sure. I didn't vote in the end, but I was leaning - slightly - toward drain by the Dusk. But I was nothing resembling sure. Cookies' information turned out to be the last bit of evidence that led drain to the noose - it was a good, well-reasoned lynch. But few of us were certain up until the end - and definitely NONE of us were certain until we heard from Cookies.
Except Idle.
How could he be so confident? If he's scum, he knew drainbead would be scum, too. He didn't need to hear from Cookies to know that, so he could play the part of the reasonable townsperson, trying to keep secrets. He could play his cards with such certainty because he knew he'd be proven right in the end, and gain credit for it. Or drainbead would live, Idle would eventually die and be revealed as scum, and drainbead gets the credit. Either way, good deal for a hypothetically scummy Idle.
That's all I have on this, and I know it's a little "going on gut" for the taste of some, but read those posts again. Doesn't it seem like Idle isn't really interested in looking at the evidence and making a considered choice - like he's already made his choice, knows it will be right, and just wants to get past the discussion to the bloodshed?
The fact that his actions had an outcome we all like does not mean that they were not scummy.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 12, 2007 10:43:24 GMT -5
Their argument seemed staged. You know, I heard this in Asylum Lane, when our argument was not staged, and I've heard it a few times here, when it is not staged. I am curious - what seems staged to you? This is not a rhetorical question. What about our arguments against one another seem fake or preplanned? Because this meme has to die. This has been a circular argument since the first time I heard it, and it remains so toDay. You don't even have a real reason for suspecting me, other than that I am still playing the game and I argued with you. Not much to respond to here.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 12, 2007 10:44:04 GMT -5
Sorry for the triple post.
I just noticed that I neglected to:
vote Idle Thoughts
in my last post.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Oct 12, 2007 10:44:22 GMT -5
Niiiiiiice.
I like your ignoring of me story.
Solidifies my vote.
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Post by Mad The Swine on Oct 12, 2007 10:45:23 GMT -5
Niiiiiiice. I like your ignoring of me story. Solidifies my vote. oh..well you did respond....ok
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 12, 2007 10:46:32 GMT -5
Niiiiiiice. I like your ignoring of me story. Solidifies my vote. oh..well you did respond....ok Yeah, I was typing that post about Idle Thoughts for quite a while, because my boss keeps coming in my office and I keep having to switch over to Excel. Work, bah. ;D
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 12, 2007 10:51:24 GMT -5
Would you rather I had not hammered yesterDay? As it has already been pointed out, we were nowhere near deadline and other people had already promised to be the hammer. Nah, I've gotten over it. The death of my previous incarnation was not a big big loss to the town, and it did reveal good information. (Still sucks to have gotten lynched, of course, but that's all water under the bridge.) Maybe, maybe not. I was definitely thinking, "mighty convenient for pygmy that drain bead turned up scum, because if we ended up with another mislynch he would have definitely gotten a lot of hairy eyeballs". My overall impression of you is more or less a metagame of "I didn't find pygmy scummy in the last game, and we know how well THAT turned out". I find it odd that you're feeling so defensive for just a pointy accusatory finger.
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Blaster Master
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Post by Blaster Master on Oct 12, 2007 10:52:31 GMT -5
I want to look at the spiff and story feud. I think it is unlikely they are both town. Fact O' business...I think they both be scum. Their argument seemed staged. But I am certain one of them is scum,not sure which one to look at first. Story's reaction to my suspiscion of him early on seemed over the top...yet spiff came to my defense saying I misremembered.Both these reactions seemed odd to me. Spiffs math(which is confusing to many of us) seems like he is trying to be very helpful for town.But I suspect he realised most of us would be totaly lost with his helpfullness and also realised that(he thought) would strengthen his towniness. I also believe scum would have killed one of them already if they are town. Story says we are past the point of suspecting someone cause they are still alive...I am not so sure .He wants us to believe that because he is still alive. I really think they are both scum..but suspect story more at this point..but not by much. We should kill them both the next two Days. Vote storyOh... FINALLY someone wants to look at it, but not until my suspicion for him has waned considerably in the wake of more suspicious behavior. Anyway, to reference my "defending" you. One point that I've learned in differentiating scumminess is that many things, even overtly scummy-looking actions, are not necessarily scum tells and, in fact, actually lack information, thus leading us on a wild goose chase. To reference your initial attack on Storyteller, without regard to the truthfulness of it, there is a clear presence of town motivation, that is, if it was point was true, you may have had good reason to believe he was scum. After learning that it was not true, the scum motivation, while still present, was definitively lacking, but the potential town motivation, which is that you simply misremembered. You'll also remember, I said I was not happy about the band wagon against you, simply because I felt the evidence was lacking, that is, I felt the potential for an honest mistake there was congruent the the random possibility of you being pro-town. To reword MY motivations, my motto for this game is more or less a rewording of Hanlon's Razor , more or less "Never attribute to scumminess that which can be adequately explain by error*." That is, you clearly made an error, but that's no different than dotchan's infamous slip, or the slip that drain bead used to attack Roosh. The point is, everything, with very few exceptions, COULD be scum tells, what we need to find are things that are could ONLY be scum tells, because they're actions that do not have pro-town motivations at heart, or where the probability for scum motivations heavily outweigh those of town. * Though stupidity would still sound better, I'm replacing it with a word that more accurately implies how I use it and not potentially hurt anyone's feelings
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