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Post by Rysto on Apr 18, 2008 15:26:00 GMT -5
Ok, how many people are willing to make a switch to Darth?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 18, 2008 15:26:41 GMT -5
The most obvious thing I can see as a point against Darth is his being consistently vocal in his mason suspicions, but that applies to sinjin as well. Neither of them have earned much of any benefit of the doubt from me either. To cut to the chase, I'm willing to switch my vote to Darth. I will try and check back in to see if that needs to happen as the last couple of hours tick by. So Darth did something vaguely suspicious and that is enough to potentially vote for him over someone who is almost certainly a PFK? (Anyone want to make a case about why I would lie about that regardless of who I am?) Ryjae is not pro-town. Darth very well might be. Why risk losing a town member when that risk is unnecessary? I suppose what you call it is a hunch. A hunch that I didn't expect much traction from others on toDay, but apparently I was wrong, as we seem to have a few folks willing to vote for Darth. A hunch that is starting to extend in your direction with respect to how you seem to be defending Darth under what very well could be merely the guise of risk-analysis logic, logic that I find reminiscent of what Kyrie tried to use back when I chose correctly (against him) in the 3-handed decision I managed to pull off by the skin of my teeth. Unfortunately, I don't have the luxury to read back through the whole game in the same fine-toothed fashion to sanity-check my gut. So the gut is calling it. Unvote BLaMVote Darth
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 18, 2008 15:27:20 GMT -5
There seems to be a bit too much urgency and desperation in BlaM's pleas to not be lynched. Almost like the game were riding on it. It would not surprise me one bit to find out that BlaM actually is batman. I'm leaving my vote where it is. OH FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! IT'S BLOODY MOD CONFIRMED THAT I'M NOT! ARE YOU EVEN READING THE THREAD OR JUST BETTING THE FARM THAT I'M SCUM!? You may be pretty pretty far fetched as a potential Do-Gooder, but your insistance that I'm scum, and demonstrated confirmation bias is NOT helpful to us. Hell, if I wasn't reasonably sure that both tdpatriots and Ryjae were the last two PFKs, I'd be convinced that your whole "block protects too" deal is just a cover for PFK.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 18, 2008 15:29:34 GMT -5
With cookies that makes it 6-5-3. Ryjae-Blaster-Darth
(And cookies, you reversed your colors.)
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 18, 2008 15:30:14 GMT -5
OK, I have a problem, and it is a significant one. I have to leave work now. It takes me more than 90 minutes to get home, so the final showdown will be over by the time I get there. At this point I think there's a fair chance that my vote for Darth may actually come into play.
But I will not be around to change my vote after this. I will not be able to unvote if there is a particularly persuasive role claim or a bit of important last-minute evidence. So I'd suggest that, if a Darth bandwagon appears likely, that at least a few of the voters on it attempt to check back a few more times before the deadline, to represent the Town if important information is revealed.
And with my vote on the person I think is most likely to be scum, I must regretfully depart for the Day. Good luck, and see you toNight.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 18, 2008 15:32:36 GMT -5
You may be pretty pretty far fetched as a potential Do-Gooder, but your insistance that I'm scum, and demonstrated confirmation bias is NOT helpful to us. Hell, if I wasn't reasonably sure that both tdpatriots and Ryjae were the last two PFKs, I'd be convinced that your whole "block protects too" deal is just a cover for PFK. <but ducking in quickly to add> I still believe that either Hoopy or brewha is not pro-Town. I don't know exactly how it works out. Maybe one of them is scum. Maybe one of them is PFK and ryjae is Town (or, interestingly, tdpatriots12 is scum pretending to be PFK. But I really don't believe that the town had three role blockers at the outset of the game. Three! We have only brewha's word that his power is protective as well as inhibitory, and we have only Hoopy's word that he's blocked anyone at all before or after Night 2. Just putting it out there.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 18, 2008 15:34:07 GMT -5
I suppose what you call it is a hunch. A hunch that I didn't expect much traction from others on toDay, but apparently I was wrong, as we seem to have a few folks willing to vote for Darth. A hunch that is starting to extend in your direction with respect to how you seem to be defending Darth under what very well could be merely the guise of risk-analysis logic, logic that I find reminiscent of what Kyrie tried to use back when I chose correctly (against him) in the 3-handed decision I managed to pull off by the skin of my teeth. Unfortunately, I don't have the luxury to read back through the whole game in the same fine-toothed fashion to sanity-check my gut. So the gut is calling it. Unvote BLaMVote DarthLook, I appreciate your gut, but even if you're right, what the hell do we gain? Can you PLEASE address my questions about the gain vs. loss of lynch order? Even if we assume 100% that Darth is scum and not even give Ryjae the same assumption, we STILL gain more information from Ryjae's lynch. In the event he IS PFK, we 100% prevent him from winning Tonight. And, based on the evidence, unless Darth is Batman, we don't hinder the scum at all, and even if he is, what power could he have that REALLY be so devastating. Even if Batman can read roles, that's not going to help them much or at all. IOW, the gain is just A LOT smaller if we lynch either Darth or me over Ryjae. The longer you leave him up, the more uncertainty you add, the less information you have and, hell, we could even lose the game Tonight. Who knows?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 18, 2008 15:35:17 GMT -5
whoops
Unvote BLaM Vote Darth
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 18, 2008 15:37:40 GMT -5
IOW, the gain is just A LOT smaller if we lynch either Darth or me over Ryjae. The longer you leave him up, the more uncertainty you add, the less information you have and, hell, we could even lose the game Tonight. Who knows? Blaster - you really don't think that finding out that Darth was scum, in the event that he is, would allow us to read the events of the last four Days in a different light? How does ryjae's death provide us with information but Darth's doesn't? Makes no sense to me. Now I seriously have to go. Signing off right... now.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 18, 2008 15:37:57 GMT -5
Unvote BLaM Vote Darth
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 18, 2008 15:43:28 GMT -5
You may be pretty pretty far fetched as a potential Do-Gooder, but your insistance that I'm scum, and demonstrated confirmation bias is NOT helpful to us. Hell, if I wasn't reasonably sure that both tdpatriots and Ryjae were the last two PFKs, I'd be convinced that your whole "block protects too" deal is just a cover for PFK. <but ducking in quickly to add> I still believe that either Hoopy or brewha is not pro-Town. I don't know exactly how it works out. Maybe one of them is scum. Maybe one of them is PFK and ryjae is Town (or, interestingly, tdpatriots12 is scum pretending to be PFK. But I really don't believe that the town had three role blockers at the outset of the game. Three! We have only brewha's word that his power is protective as well as inhibitory, and we have only Hoopy's word that he's blocked anyone at all before or after Night 2. Just putting it out there. Agreed, and I think after Ryjae goes down, and possibly waiting 'til after Darth is lynched, that's a good place to start looking. The problem is, both demonstrated powers that seem to mean they're actually who they say they are, so I have trouble believing either is Do-Gooder; but that would mean either tdpatriots or Ryjae/Hawk isn't a PFK. Then again, I was thinking, we have how many Do-Gooders, "approximately" 6? So that's Batman, Robin, Batgirl, Alfred, Commisioner Gordon, ...? Who is left? Maybe one of the general baddies is the last Do-Gooder for some contrived reason? Maybe there's some sort of odd other Do-Gooder that doesn't completely make sense (along the lines of the claims of Lex, Ash, Killer Moth, etc.?) like Superman or Green Lantern?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 18, 2008 15:44:36 GMT -5
quoting hawk...
You might get away with using a term like "vaguely" with someone who finds Darth suspicious who isn't a Mason, but myself and three others are quite comfortable calling such behavior categorically suspicious, especially this late in the game. This statement strikes me as extremely manipulative and reinforces the vote on Darth, imho, and the growing suspicion of you.
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Post by ryjae on Apr 18, 2008 15:44:46 GMT -5
Well I can't have my perfectly laid plans go to waste now can I? Be a nice little color post this evening I assume. *BlaM & Hawk* Lets make it a dusk to remember fellows vote ryjae
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 18, 2008 15:48:40 GMT -5
hell, we could even lose the game Tonight. Who knows? Not if I block him. And the only way my block won't go through is if scum and/or Brewha counter-block. And regardless of ultimate plans, schemes, and goals, I don't think it is in anyone's best interest (other than Ryjae's) for any party to do so. Of course, someone else could take a different action that might inadvertently cause Ryjae to win, but that's a WIFOM for those who have powers more kooky than mine.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 18, 2008 15:53:16 GMT -5
And I see while I was posting, Ryjae voted himself. Crazy.
So that means we now have as an unofficial count (everyone had voted):
Ryjae 7 Blam 4 Darth 4
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 18, 2008 15:54:00 GMT -5
Give me a vote count before voting closes please. I wan't to know if I will need to make a last minute change
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 18, 2008 15:55:03 GMT -5
unvote ryjae
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Post by ryjae on Apr 18, 2008 15:55:24 GMT -5
And I see while I was posting, Ryjae voted himself. Crazy. So that means we now have as an unofficial count (everyone had voted): Ryjae 7 Blam 4 Darth 4 It will be a lot less "crazy" at dusk. You can thank me later.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 18, 2008 15:55:49 GMT -5
Oh yeah, I do plan to tie up the vote between ryjae and whoever else is the leader, if it's possible.
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Post by Hawkmod on Apr 18, 2008 15:57:20 GMT -5
You continue to do the unexpected.
unvote Ryjae
Hopefully this will save my life.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 18, 2008 15:59:08 GMT -5
Well I can't have my perfectly laid plans go to waste now can I? Be a nice little color post this evening I assume. *BlaM & Hawk* Lets make it a dusk to remember fellows vote ryjaeI'm so not wanting to deal with another wing-nut toMorrow, so based on that zumaesque post: unvote Blamvote ryjae
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 18, 2008 15:59:37 GMT -5
IOW, the gain is just A LOT smaller if we lynch either Darth or me over Ryjae. The longer you leave him up, the more uncertainty you add, the less information you have and, hell, we could even lose the game Tonight. Who knows? Blaster - you really don't think that finding out that Darth was scum, in the event that he is, would allow us to read the events of the last four Days in a different light? How does ryjae's death provide us with information but Darth's doesn't? Makes no sense to me. Now I seriously have to go. Signing off right... now. I know you have to go, but I have to answer this... They do both provide us with some information, but one has tangible predictable information: "if Ryjae is X then Y, else Z". The information from lynching Darth is less so, because it's only confirming certain ties. You can go back right now and read it with the perspective that he's Baddie and then read it again with the perspective that he's Do-Gooder, the only thing you'd lack is the confirmation of which one he is. And since everyone is SO stuck on confirmation bias, it doesn't matter, since everyone is reading as if he's scum already, since so much of the case against him seems to be gut reactions. But fine, let's pretend that the information is equal. You STILL have to account for the fact that you can get the information from Darth just as well Tomorrw, and even get more because you get another Day to read through, but giving Ryjae another Day has an unknown risk attached to it. IOW, lynching Darth Today or Tomorrow nets approximately the same amount of information, and it won't end the Do-Gooders, and no one has given an example of a power he might have if he is Batman that would be devastating enough that it needs to be eliminated now. But leaving Ryjae alive has a risk and we don't know what it is. So, on further reflection, the information differential between the orderings of their lynches is neglible, so it doesn't even make sense to talk about which one garners the most information. However, the RISK is distinctly different. There is an unknown but definite risk associated with leaving Ryjae alive, there is an extraordinarily small and known risk with leaving Darth alive (and that's even given the worst case scenario that he's Batman and has an investigative power). And, to reitterate, leaving me alive has even LESS risk. I'm NOT Batman or Robin (one is mod confirmed, the other is dead), and even Robin didn't have extra powers. So what, I'm Alfred? Do you really think he'd have extra powers when Robin doesn't? Am I Gordon? MAYBE he has some investigative powers (being a cop and all), but that puts my upper limit in threat below Darth since he at least has the chance to be any of the Do-Gooders. So, IF someone can explain to me WHY the risk is actually the other way around, then PLEASE do so. Otherwise, I just can't see the logic behind lynching anyone by Ryjae.
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Post by ryjae on Apr 18, 2008 15:59:41 GMT -5
Oh yeah, I do plan to tie up the vote between ryjae and whoever else is the leader, if it's possible. Why??? What's the worst that can happen with my riding the electric slide? Be like Kevorkian and help me. ;D Serious though, the votes are clearly leaning my way, might as well get it over with. As it stands now the town will benefit!
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Post by ryjae on Apr 18, 2008 16:00:38 GMT -5
OOpps sorry about not taking out the color
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 18, 2008 16:01:46 GMT -5
Oh yeah, I do plan to tie up the vote between ryjae and whoever else is the leader, if it's possible. Why??? What's the worst that can happen with my riding the electric slide? Be like Kevorkian and help me. ;D Serious though, the votes are clearly leaning my way, might as well get it over with. As it stands now the town will benefit! Because you are a liar who wants to die. I don't get it, but I think it would be best for everyone if there was a tie between you and Darth. No lynch and either of you are fine candidates for death.
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Post by ryjae on Apr 18, 2008 16:03:17 GMT -5
Well I can't have my perfectly laid plans go to waste now can I? Be a nice little color post this evening I assume. *BlaM & Hawk* Lets make it a dusk to remember fellows vote ryjaeI'm so not wanting to deal with another wing-nut toMorrow, so based on that zumaesque post: unvote Blamvote ryjae Zuma? No I clearly have a reason for doing what I'm doing, helping the town win. That is my goal. I appreciate your vote, I just really wish you would remove it. Enough are on me already to recharge my batteries in the super duper recharging chair.
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Blaster Master
Mome Rath
The player formerly know as BLAM!
Now 34.788% less repellant to Sharks! :( [on:I WANT TO DIE!][of:I WANT TO LIVE!]
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Post by Blaster Master on Apr 18, 2008 16:05:47 GMT -5
Guys, look back at Conspiracy where Cat made a crazy claim to try to save himself. He's LYING and he's trying desperately to live. Hell, if he's telling the truth, then Hawk and I are both lying and it's a great pro-town trade. IF he's lying, then why should we believe he's going to kill any of us anyway? Hawk, you know he's lying as well as me, so why do you suddenly believe this bit by him? It may be true, it may not. Hell, maybe it is true, but he has to actually LIVE to blow us up Tonight. But if you KNOW he's lying, you have to vote for him.
Lesson Learned: NEVER trust ANYTHING confirmed scum say. Completely ignore it.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 18, 2008 16:08:52 GMT -5
Guys, look back at Conspiracy where Cat made a crazy claim to try to save himself. He's LYING and he's trying desperately to live. Hell, if he's telling the truth, then Hawk and I are both lying and it's a great pro-town trade. IF he's lying, then why should we believe he's going to kill any of us anyway? Hawk, you know he's lying as well as me, so why do you suddenly believe this bit by him? It may be true, it may not. Hell, maybe it is true, but he has to actually LIVE to blow us up Tonight. But if you KNOW he's lying, you have to vote for him. Lesson Learned: NEVER trust ANYTHING confirmed scum say. Completely ignore it. My worry is that he needs to get himself lynched to fullfill his win condition. I don't think that he has any killing abilities at all, that's why I want to tie up the vote.
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Post by ryjae on Apr 18, 2008 16:09:15 GMT -5
Ouch that stings me NAF. I hope thats game talk because you're making me sad. ;D BlaM I like your argument, but at the juncture I think its hopeless for us. We can hold hands and sing for the next hour or so. Pass the time a little anyway. Don't worry we will have some unexpected company as well in our singing. Sadly
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Post by Hawkmod on Apr 18, 2008 16:09:26 GMT -5
Guys, look back at Conspiracy where Cat made a crazy claim to try to save himself. He's LYING and he's trying desperately to live. Hell, if he's telling the truth, then Hawk and I are both lying and it's a great pro-town trade. IF he's lying, then why should we believe he's going to kill any of us anyway? Hawk, you know he's lying as well as me, so why do you suddenly believe this bit by him? It may be true, it may not. Hell, maybe it is true, but he has to actually LIVE to blow us up Tonight. But if you KNOW he's lying, you have to vote for him. Lesson Learned: NEVER trust ANYTHING confirmed scum say. Completely ignore it. Because I think there is a chance he could take out people with him when he goes. So, I'm going to keep my vote off of him unless necessary. When does this day end?
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