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Day Two
May 27, 2007 20:54:05 GMT -5
Post by capybara on May 27, 2007 20:54:05 GMT -5
Ok, I think you're right-- "throat cut" is pretty generic of a description anyway, so this could very well be a pirate kill. Which opens up the whole question to a thousand possibilities again. It does seem likelier that Dick would hold off as he only needs to make 3 kills and can't be sure of not killing pirates right now, while the pirates know that they aren't getting one of their own.
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Day Two
May 27, 2007 20:59:24 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on May 27, 2007 20:59:24 GMT -5
I'm still unsure whether Deadeye can decide to hold off; it's not clear in the rules.
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Day Two
May 27, 2007 21:23:42 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on May 27, 2007 21:23:42 GMT -5
Ohhh...here's a thought. Do we think that Deadeye Dick, since he (or she) is working alone, would be more inclined to knife someone who might be targetting him or her? I agree, to some degree, with Gadarene saying the pirates are smarter than that, but that's because they have the virtue of talking strategy with each other. Not so with Deadeye Dick - it's much more of an impulsive action, I would think.
So, I think we really need to figure out which party was responsible. I understand Gadarene's statement that in M3 the description is simply flavor, but I got the impression that it wasn't the case here, as evidenced by the potential finding of the knife when Deadeye Dick is killed. The fact that the knives are such a big deal to the role tells me, at least, that we can make assumptions about the murder description.
It wasn't, capybara, a very generic description of a throat cut - it was very specific about the unusual ragged cut.
As an aside, the rest of the crew sure is sleeping late today!
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 2:54:16 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on May 28, 2007 2:54:16 GMT -5
Idle Thoughts:Does Deadeye have to kill every night, or can he/she choose not to do so? Malacandra? Dick Deadeye must attempt a kill every night. Remember, if he doesn't score three kills (or kill Flint) by game end, he loses no matter which side wins.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 3:03:22 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on May 28, 2007 3:03:22 GMT -5
Oh....hmmm...for some reason I assumed that he had to kill crew, unless he killed Flint, at which point he becomes the Pirate King....wait, does that mean that he can kill AFTER he's been accepted into the fold, taking out Flint?? Hell, I'm all confused now. Mal!!! Oh, and solid work there on the analysis, Gad! Hello again, shipmates. First, Dick Deadeye has no idea who the pirates are. It helps his eventual victory chances if he doesn't kill pirates, of course, but he can only hope to get lucky as far as that goes. (If Dick were to kill the last pirate as his third kill, the game would continue as Dick becomes a pirate himself in so doing.) Second, Dick ceases to be an independent night-killer once he turns pirate, no matter how. Of course, he can still be the pirates' designated operative once he's on their side. Killing Flint fulfils Dick's mission automatically regardless of the number of kills to his name.
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Merestil Haye
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 3:10:53 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on May 28, 2007 3:10:53 GMT -5
Morning all.
Farewell Fluiddruid, we hardly knew ye. We'll find the scum that did it and keelhaul them before sending them on the long walk off the short plank. Arrr.
One small point. The Warlord did note that he might miss out some of the roles. It is possible that this is a pirate kill, and DD simply isn't on board.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 6:49:21 GMT -5
Post by zuma on May 28, 2007 6:49:21 GMT -5
This entire debate about whether deadeye dick or the pirates offed fluiddruid just seems like noise to me. I'll assume it was the pirates. If deadeye exists and offed fluid, then the pirates were blocked by captain steele, which means we caught a pirate. Steele will let us know, I assume, one way or another.
I'll disagree with ArizonaTeach again, and I don't think it's terribly important that we know which one did it. Each of them are scum and that is what matters. They both had their reasons for killing fluiddruid and we need to decide why fluid died.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 6:54:07 GMT -5
Post by zuma on May 28, 2007 6:54:07 GMT -5
Vote: ArizonaTeach
Figuring out which scum is which is just a distraction. They all need to go.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 8:02:09 GMT -5
Post by Malacandra on May 28, 2007 8:02:09 GMT -5
Wouldn't that {ed: the pirates getting there first} just mean that Deadeye's murder would be "wasted," though, or would he get to pick another target? He doesn't get to pick another target that night. His effort, even if successful, goes to waste and he is no nearer his goal.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 8:57:19 GMT -5
Post by capybara on May 28, 2007 8:57:19 GMT -5
I'll disagree with ArizonaTeach again, and I don't think it's terribly important that we know which one did it. Each of them are scum and that is what matters. They both had their reasons for killing fluiddruid and we need to decide why fluid died. But in order to figure out why the pirates or Dick did it, it's completely important to work out which did it, for motive. The pirate group killing will have different reasons than a single killer.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 9:26:39 GMT -5
Post by capybara on May 28, 2007 9:26:39 GMT -5
To into that a bit more; at this point although Dick wants to be a pirate he ain't yet, and if he snuffs it before he's a pirate it doesn't help him, so in addition to playing pro-pirate right now he has to play individual/ selfish self-preservation as well.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 9:27:32 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on May 28, 2007 9:27:32 GMT -5
This entire debate about whether deadeye dick or the pirates offed fluiddruid just seems like noise to me. I'll assume it was the pirates. If deadeye exists and offed fluid, then the pirates were blocked by captain steele, which means we caught a pirate. Steele will let us know, I assume, one way or another. Of course it's important we know who did what, because the reasons behind the kill would be totally different. And Steele sure as hell better not let us know except in the most subtle of terms, so that statement is loony. Jeez, zuma, I was willing to believe last time that you just made a mistake, but what you're saying there is just plain nonsense.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 9:29:03 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 28, 2007 9:29:03 GMT -5
I think the most likely scenario is that the pirates killed fluid and Deadeye Dick's kill failed (it has a 50% chance of failure). I'm still suspicious of capybara, and reading fluid's posting history (thank you Gadarene) makes me even more so. Fluid was going after capybara quite a bit and I think she was killed because of that. Vote capybara--FCOD
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 10:21:40 GMT -5
Post by Caerie on May 28, 2007 10:21:40 GMT -5
RIP fluiddruid.
So we only had one kill last night instead of two, which is pretty good. Best case scenario is that fluiddruid was Deadeye Dick's kill. In that case, the pirates could have been thwarted by Steele, the victim could have been saved by the Doctor, or--and this would be a very good thing for us--the pirates targeted Ben Gunn. Would there be some indication if Deadeye and the pirates targeted the same person, though? That's another possibility, if there wouldn't be an indication of it.
There's also the chance that this was the pirate kill and Deadeye failed somehow. As FCoD points out, there's a 50% chance of failure there. So, the odds are in favor of fluiddruid having been a pirate kill. Still good because we've got an extra crewmember alive today, but not as potentially useful for us.
Now, if this was a pirate kill, I don't think it's particularly likely that capybara is a pirate, precisely because that's where fluiddruid's final vote was. If it was a pirate kill and this was Day 2, I wouldn't say that, though, having now learned the lesson that, yes, sometimes the scum really are that obvious. Day 2, and the pirates might think they've caught a power role successfully sniffing out scum. But Day 1? I'd think they'd want to choose someone who voted for crew to better obfuscate things. That doesn't exonerate anyone else fluiddruid may have been suspicious of, however, nor does it really exonerate capybara.
Because even if it was a pirate kill, capybara could still be Deadeye or Ben, since the pirates wouldn't know who those players are, right? If it was a Deadeye kill, then the playing field is wide open.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 10:22:01 GMT -5
Post by capybara on May 28, 2007 10:22:01 GMT -5
So. . . I convinced the other pirates to kill FD, is that your theory, FCOD? If that is the pirates' reasoning, why not any of the other (many) people that were voting for me that were more active in the game and also onto other pirates as well? Why didn't they kill, oh, you, for example? A little overt and simplistic, wouldn't it have been? Ah, I see Gad made that point: . . . I'll say that that bodes well for both cowgirl and capy, because it would be either extremely amateurish or incredibly sophisticated for the pirates to direct suspicion on themselves that way. Not saying it can't have happened, but the one thing the last few games have taught me is that townspeople, acting en masse, are very prone to looking toward the easy suspects when someone gets killed. I don't think we should begin with cowgirl and capy in this case. Is this a little early in the day to be whipping votes out? We're jumping based on some pretty weak theories.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 10:27:51 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on May 28, 2007 10:27:51 GMT -5
Morning folks. Just clearing last night's rum out of my head. My back is killing me from sleeping in this stupid hammock. And which one of you was snoring to wake the dead?
I agree that it would be very useful to know why our dear departed was chosen (and by whom), but there are simply too many possibilities right now to be certain of any of them. I definitely appreciate the discussion, tho, as it's clearer in my mind now how the roles work.
Trying to figure out why FD was targeted will inevitably result in a wine-in-front-of-you cycle that we can't crack. Perhaps capybara or I is a pirate (or a Dick, etc) and so along with our crewmates we keelhauled her at night. Or perhaps one or the other of us is not a pirate, and the pirates keelhauled her to direct suspicion at one or both of us. We can't possibly know until hindsight gives us clarity.
So I'll remain agnostic on this one too.
From what I can tell the key difference between where we are now, and where we were last night, is that now some people have more (quite specific) information than they did before.
So my strategy today will be to examine people's stated and unstated assumptions and reasoning.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 10:51:39 GMT -5
Post by capybara on May 28, 2007 10:51:39 GMT -5
Ok, so, fact. FD got snuffed. Why? One theory offered so far is for myself or cowgirl to protect ourselves, either performed by ourselves as Dick or by the pirates collectively. Another theory-- to cast suspicion on one of/ both of us (working so far, hah), either as a red herring or to get the group to lynch one of us with specific purpose (i.e. get someone killed with no direct hand in it). Now, leaving aside for a time the cowgirl/capybara thread, what other reasons could the pirates have had to kill FD? Is there anything FD said that could have suggested that she was a power role or otherwise significant?
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Merestil Haye
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:01:44 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on May 28, 2007 11:01:44 GMT -5
So we only had one kill last night instead of two, which is pretty good. Best case scenario is that fluiddruid was Deadeye Dick's kill. In that case, the pirates could have been thwarted by Steele, the victim could have been saved by the Doctor, or--and this would be a very good thing for us--the pirates targeted Ben Gunn. Would there be some indication if Deadeye and the pirates targeted the same person, though? That's another possibility, if there wouldn't be an indication of it. I'm not sure I agree with the statement that it would be a good thing for us if Ben was the pirates target last night. Or even Deadeye Dick's. It would be A Very Bad Thing. It means that tonight we will have 2-2½ rampaging killers on the loose. The faster people die the less chance we have of outing the scum. (DD is the ½-a-killer, obviously, because he only kills half the time.) Serial killers, even pro-crew killers, are a bad thing for the crew. It would be better if Ben were not activated, or even better, not in play. If BG starts killing, we'd better hope that we get the Captain and string him up pdq. Or even that Deadeye actually does kill him. That would be even better. DD stops his killing spree, and so does BG, leaving just the pirates to deal with.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:03:59 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 28, 2007 11:03:59 GMT -5
So. . . I convinced the other pirates to kill FD, is that your theory, FCOD? If that is the pirates' reasoning, why not any of the other (many) people that were voting for me that were more active in the game and also onto other pirates as well? Why didn't they kill, oh, you, for example? A little overt and simplistic, wouldn't it have been? Because fluiddruid is a strong player. Without getting into the "wine in front of you" mentality, I'll say that that bodes well for both cowgirl and capy, because it would be either extremely amateurish or incredibly sophisticated for the pirates to direct suspicion on themselves that way. I disagree. We're dealing with an (mostly) experienced group of players here. Making an assumption like this is dangerous. We have to assume that the pirates are just as smart or smarter than we are. I think that it's reasonable to assume that part of the reason that the pirates killed fluiddruid was to exonerate cowgirl and capybara. Is this a little early in the day to be whipping votes out? We're jumping based on some pretty weak theories. So far, only crewmates have been killed. That means we don't have much more information that what we had yesterday. I have suspicions about you, and until more information surfaces I don't see any reason to hold off my vote. However, I don't want the day to end early, so you can rest assured that I'll unvote if a bandwagon starts to form. --FCOD
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:09:04 GMT -5
Post by Caerie on May 28, 2007 11:09:04 GMT -5
I'm not sure I agree with the statement that it would be a good thing for us if Ben was the pirates target last night. Or even Deadeye Dick's. It would be A Very Bad Thing. It means that tonight we will have 2-2½ rampaging killers on the loose. The faster people die the less chance we have of outing the scum. (DD is the ½-a-killer, obviously, because he only kills half the time.) Serial killers, even pro-crew killers, are a bad thing for the crew. It would be better if Ben were not activated, or even better, not in play. If BG starts killing, we'd better hope that we get the Captain and string him up pdq. Or even that Deadeye actually does kill him. That would be even better. DD stops his killing spree, and so does BG, leaving just the pirates to deal with. Okay, you've got a point. Ben Gunn is a pretty big liability no matter how you look at him, then.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:11:04 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 28, 2007 11:11:04 GMT -5
I should have elaborated: So. . . I convinced the other pirates to kill FD, is that your theory, FCOD? If that is the pirates' reasoning, why not any of the other (many) people that were voting for me that were more active in the game and also onto other pirates as well? Why didn't they kill, oh, you, for example? A little overt and simplistic, wouldn't it have been? To answer your first question, I don't think you'd have needed to convince the other pirates to off fluiddruid. She was a strong player and no pirate would complain about having her out of the game. --FCOD
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:13:15 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on May 28, 2007 11:13:15 GMT -5
I think that it's reasonable to assume that part of the reason that the pirates killed fluiddruid was to exonerate cowgirl and capybara. That scenario is equally likely as its opposite (i.e. the WIFOY scenario, where the pirates wanted you to think exactly that about two townies). Why do you think your assumption is reasonable?
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:17:38 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on May 28, 2007 11:17:38 GMT -5
I don't think you'd have needed to convince the other pirates to off fluiddruid. She was a strong player and no pirate would complain about having her out of the game. But what about that thing you said that I quoted immediately above this post? Which was it: that the pirates offed FD to protect me or capybara, or that they offed her because she was a strong player? Or are you saying that they're both safe assumptions? and if so, are they really safe enough to be convincing? Please let's not get carried away with reasoning based on faulty assumptions.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:20:54 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on May 28, 2007 11:20:54 GMT -5
Be careful, don't talk too much about motivations, or zuma will vote for you out of the blue.
I disagree to a small degree about Ben Gunn, but maybe it's because I'm not clear on his rules...if he is targetted, does that not make him allied with the crew? In which case, he won't be a random killer; I would assume that he would go after high vote-getters, or even choose not to attack at all...is that last assumption correct? And does he become pro-ship as opposed to pirate? He's not like the serial killer or Deadeye, killing anyone just because...
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:23:06 GMT -5
Post by ArizonaTeach on May 28, 2007 11:23:06 GMT -5
To add to my prior statement, perhaps we should, as a crew, suggest to Ben (if he exists) a night target. That should be extremely, extremely low priority, though. Although, on reflection, making suggestions to the vigilante didn't do too hot in M2...
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:31:11 GMT -5
Post by autolycus on May 28, 2007 11:31:11 GMT -5
zzzz... Gruh? Dont wake me up so suddenly ye scurvy dog! What's that? Murder ye say? With a ragged knife? Blimey, why dont ye just check everybody's knife then? All this goin' around in circles and nobody think' o' the obvious.
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:36:00 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on May 28, 2007 11:36:00 GMT -5
... perhaps we should, as a crew, suggest to Ben (if he exists) a night target. That should be extremely, extremely low priority, though. Although, on reflection, making suggestions to the vigilante didn't do too hot in M2... Interesting suggestion. Can we discuss it? What would be the risks and benefits of such a plan? - Perhaps the player playing Ben might appreciate guidance. - On the other hand, we could very easily be wrong (as we were, as you note, in M2) and direct Ben to kill a crew. - And on another hand, why should Ben listen to us? (Note, that is not a rhetorical question.) - What would it benefit us if (hypothetically) we named a target and that target turned up dead? If it was a pirate, we could be confident that Ben did it - but that would be the case whether we named the target or not, no?
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Parzival
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:47:15 GMT -5
Post by Parzival on May 28, 2007 11:47:15 GMT -5
Now, leaving aside for a time the cowgirl/capybara thread, what other reasons could the pirates have had to kill FD? Is there anything FD said that could have suggested that she was a power role or otherwise significant? (I am assuming that the pirates killed FD. This is the most likely case - Dick misses with a high percentage, and he might not even be in the game. In addition, Dick is still pro-pirate. He's less likely to be as devious, but he has similar goals.) My theory, which I alluded to yesterday, was that she was not killed for what she said about other players, but just for what she said in general. The way I see it, the pirates have these priorities for night-kills: 1. The power roles. 2. Crew that are highly unlikely to be lynched or suspected as pirate. 3. Crew that are helping the ship the most. With little to no power-role tells on the first day, they went after the person who fit #2 and #3. Some of the other 'strong players' are viewed a tiny bit warily by the crew, but fluiddruid was not (so far as I can tell). I have some sparse notes, mostly trying to record the reasoning behind votes, and the good advice given. When I looked at my notes on Fluidruid, what I found out was that she had some good advice. Luckily, I don't have to share my notes because Gadarene has already done better: Wisdom of the Departed
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 11:53:21 GMT -5
Post by capybara on May 28, 2007 11:53:21 GMT -5
To add to my prior statement, perhaps we should, as a crew, suggest to Ben (if he exists) a night target. How could Ben ever know that the 'crew' making the suggestions are in fact 'crew'?
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Merestil Haye
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Day Two
May 28, 2007 12:00:10 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on May 28, 2007 12:00:10 GMT -5
I disagree to a small degree about Ben Gunn, but maybe it's because I'm not clear on his rules...if he is targetted, does that not make him allied with the crew? It does, yes. And that is good news; it reduces the pirate numbers by 1 and raises the crew numbers by 1, thus making it harder to win. But... he must kill every night. And, although he starts Pirate-aligned he doesn't know who they are, or how many there are. He's just an added pressure on the crew to find and hang the pirates before they can equalise numbers and win. Frankly, we can do without it. As I said above, the role post states he must kill. He doesn't have a no-kill option. In that, yes he and Deadeye Dick are the same. He's pro-crew but doesn't know who is crew and who is pirate. And putting a leash on him is impossible. Frankly I wouldn't be terribly surprised to find that his role restricts his ability to roleclaim. He's a paranoid killer, his only hope is to stay hidden from Captain Flint's gaze. He can't kill the Captain unless there are no other pirates remaining. But even if he can, and does, roleclaim I wouldn't trust him an inch. I lurked throughout M2. Every time someone proposed putting a leash on BM, I groaned in frustration. Because you couldn't do it. No townie had executive oversight of the PM that Blaster Master sent to NAF. He could have put anything in, and the first you'd have been aware of it was when dawn came and your nominee was still alive. You have the same problem here with Ben. Having said all that, there is one point where having Ben survive and turn vig is good for the town, and that is if the pirates are about to win, because the changing numbers buys an extra day, in which time the bad Captain might be found and lynched.
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