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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2010 17:05:46 GMT -5
Oh, even more glaring than seeing who's online: if I look at my profile, I see the threads I've last posted in. So I looked at Idle's. "Secret Night One" is there in black and white. I haven't checked anyone else's because that's out and out cheating, but I am going to PM Pleo about it. Oh, and thanks for asking nphase - my son is fine, but I didn't avoid getting the bug myself. Being bigger though, I'm less affected than he is. I can answer this one too....nobody can see those but you. Only you can see the fact that you've posted in the "Secret Night One" thread. Nobody else can. It only appears to you.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 28, 2010 17:10:23 GMT -5
Anyway, I'd be fine with a block of Ed. I'd be hesitant to block SisC, not feeling any vibes from her as strongly as others, although would probably agree if both of you wanted it.
I still wouldn't exclude BuffTabby from being a wolf, though...she's just that wily and brave to pull something like that. So I'd be fine with a block of MHaye, Story, Buff, or Ed....and, to a lesser extent, probably Sis and Sept...although I don't feel as gungho about those two.
So far Ed seems to be the one agreed on the strongest by more than one person. What you think, Stan?
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 29, 2010 6:35:06 GMT -5
Ed looks fairly good to me. I'd also back MHaye, as a plausible Wolf. Of course, even if we hit a wolf it's still extremely unlikely that we'll hit the killer.
Our best block would be anyone trying to kill one of us. Our second would be anyone trying to investigate us. Other than that, we don't want to block. We want dead bodies and cross-kills. We'd certainly feel pretty stupid if we blocked a Witch kill, wouldn't we?
I think we should seriously consider not blocking, until we have a better idea of who and what we're blocking.
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Post by Renata on Jul 29, 2010 7:34:27 GMT -5
That's partly why I like Ed. He will *certainly* not be doing the Wolf kill, if he is one, so we're not blocking the wolves, and the wolves are most likely of all to take a shot at bufftabby. I want bufftabby dead, obviously.
There's no town power going to be active tonight that we'd care if we blocked, so I have no concerns on that front. It's all good (Seer) or neutral (everyone else).
And if Ed happens to be a Vampire, he's as likely to go for Idle ("confirmed town") as for one of the claimed Witches (dangerous to him, but possibly protected/possibly double-killed/useful against Cabal and Wolves), so I'll happily roll the dice on that one. Heck, he could even go for one of us; we both did vote for him, after all.
Anyway, the only potential bad outcome with him, IMO, is if he is a Vampire *and* targets an unprotected Witch *and* nobody else doe the same thing -- such low odds as to be not worth worrying about.
I'll go with Ed.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 29, 2010 9:31:14 GMT -5
Okay, Ed it is.
We also need to think about our strategy for our remaining powers. We definitely need to keep a killing power in reserve in case we need to take out a Witch by ourselves. Secondly, we might need something defensive.
Depending on whether Idle survives, we'll probably be unable to claim anything off-list. So we may as well use the powers as powers.
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Post by Renata on Jul 29, 2010 10:12:26 GMT -5
Right, that's what I was figuring.
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 29, 2010 10:35:30 GMT -5
Okay, blocking Special Ed. You can always change anytime before Dawn.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 29, 2010 16:50:29 GMT -5
Yep, Ed is good...although don't know much good it will do. I don't know if I'd be for not blocking..that strikes me as giving up our chance to cause a difference. Sure we could be blocking someone trying to kill a Witch, but the same could be said for us..and the odds that we'd successfully block the right person anyway is slim so I don't think it can hurt too much. Meh, I don't play the lottery. If I did maybe I'd be more apt to believe in small chances, haha.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 29, 2010 16:54:04 GMT -5
Oh yeah, and another thing... ...the issue was raised about one of US, possibly, being recruited (and then the whole Cabal group would be compromised)...but wouldn't we KNOW if that's the case? As far as I can tell, the only way someone gets recruited is if a vamp kills them, then they're raised a Day later. Well, since WE know there's no Witchdoctor in the game, we'd know it had to have been a vamp if any of us get killed and then come back (unless one of you disguise as WitchDoctor and bring yourselves back). I'll be expecting either of you, if you're going to do the WitchDoctor thing, to tell the other two, in here, in advance....so we don't kill you in game. Otherwise if one if us dies and comes back to life, they should be regarded as on the Undead side from there on.
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Post by Renata on Jul 29, 2010 17:39:09 GMT -5
I think that was a previous game's recruitment mechanism and not necessarily this one's (if there is any), but it's still a good point. How's this for a fun way to mess with the townies? (And the wolves, and the undead, and ...) If at some point stanislaus and I are still alive and one is about to be lynched with no good claim, or has been investigated Cabal or whatever (especially if Idle has already been revealed as Cabal) -- borrow Scotsman again. The other one takes Magician and when the freaked out Wolves or Undead inevitably retaliate with a night kill, push the kill onto one of the Witches. Yeah, there are holes big enough to drive a truck through, but wouldn't it be fun?
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Post by Renata on Jul 29, 2010 19:04:03 GMT -5
Whoops, nevermind that -- Magician is only a self-redirector for attacks; I remembered that wrong.
Witchdoctor could be used that way, though. In fact, it could even be used tonight to "protect" Idle, if his return a couple of days from now with question marks all over him and loss of one more disguise ability is worth the risk of his death outright tonight.
Kind of a loony idea -- appeal to anyone else or am I completely nuts?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 29, 2010 20:35:26 GMT -5
Nah, the vamps recruited that way in every Conspiracy game so far (the last three). So..unless he changed it just for this game...*shrugs*
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 29, 2010 20:35:54 GMT -5
And yes...if you both did a disguise of Scotsman, too, we might be able to make it to the end, eh?
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 30, 2010 3:31:38 GMT -5
Idle can't disguise himself anymore - it's one shot for each of us.
If we want to bounce kills around, Vampire is a good one - our attacker dies, plus we get a NK of our own.
Using Witchdoctor to bounce back from the dead could be game-changing.
The problem with both of these is that if we don't draw an NK, then they're wasted. So we need to be pretty sure we're going to be hit. Or we use Witchdoctor for a lynch, but that risks losing the surprise value, if the Coroner is still around.
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Post by Renata on Jul 30, 2010 7:37:24 GMT -5
I think Idle *is* fairly high risk to be hit tonight, simply because he's "confirmed town" and the exposed Witches will almost certainly self-protect given the current options. Easy target, or so at least one of the killers will probably think.
Of course it's not a sure thing, and it would burn another use of the secret power. I don't consider the Coroner a factor -- Idle would almost certainly not be chosen (unless by some fluke he's the only death), because his identity is already "known".
I'm rather tempted, even after sleeping on it. The one really pertinent criticism is that Idle himself has said there is no Witchdoctor, so his reappearance would be treated with skepticism at best. He'd probably be lynched, unless there was a higher priority on hand at the time, like a known Vampire. It might buy us fairly little, even if it works. I'm not sold that it's worth the cost. But man, it would be fun. I kinda want to do it. Think about it and convince me I'm nuts (unless I'm not.)
Witchdoctor doesn't apply to a lynch, right?
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 30, 2010 9:35:29 GMT -5
AIUI, the Coroner gets the info automatically - they don't have to ask for it. Hang on...
You are a Coroner, a member of the Town. You will automatically discover the role of each dead player, even ones under the enchantment of a Witchdoctor, at the beginning of each Day and Night.
You are a Witchdoctor, a member of the Town. Each Night you may enchant one player (including yourself) who, if killed that Night only, will come back from the dead the morning after the next Night (i.e., when their faction would normally be revealed). Once activated, this enchantment cannot be blocked. Each player may only be saved this way once. The player who is killed and comes back will know the identity of their killer.
OK. If Idle is killed tonight, he should still be Disguised as a Scotsman and so the Coroner will be told that.
Pleo, is that right?
However, I agree with the big problems. 1) Idle said there was no Witchdoctor. 2) It's almost certainly a bad idea for us to claim the role. 3) It's a big use of our major resource. We'd have used up two of our Disguises by Night One. Let's say I do it and then you get lynched or NK'd by Day Five. Idle and I won't be able to use the power again - so a game-changing kill or protection can't happen. We'll be relying on other roles to do the killing for us, and our block will be mostly ineffective.
Against that, the downside of not using it is that Idle is probably dead tomorrow. Which makes burning a power to get him confirmed a big waste of time. Is that just the sunk cost fallacy? Let me try to break it down:
Do nothing: Idle gets killed, confirmed as Scotsman to Coroner. We're down to two people. We have two power uses left. OR. Idle doesn't get attcked, there are three of us with two powers left.
Use the power: Idle gets apparently killed, confirmed as Scotsman. However, he will return to life a day later, when his faction should have been revealed. He will know the identity of his killer. He will also have proven his list wrong. He will have to explain why he left the Witchdoctor off, and who he put in his place. This will be tricky - the Wolves will immediately know he's lying if he picks them, for example. As people die, he will eventually be caught lying whatever he claims. We will have to decide if we want to claim as Witchdoctor. If believed, this is a powerful claim, because it effectively grants immunity to NKs. However, we'd have to explain why we lied about being on the list. When Idle is caught lying, we'd have to look pretty embarrassed. In fact, I think at that point the gaffe would be well and truly blown. There are people here smart enough to guess we're Cabal with a power. Also, only one of us will have a power going into the rest of the game.
OR we use the power, Idle doesn't get attacked and there are now three of us - only one of whom can use the power for the rest of a long game. If that person gets killed, we're effectively useless.
OK, looking at that, I can see that we would make our lives very interesting if we successfully resurrect Idle. But ultimately, we'd probably just be backing ourselves into a corner sometime around Day Six/Seven.
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Post by Renata on Jul 30, 2010 9:58:42 GMT -5
Probably. I so want to do it for the lulz, though, because can you imagine? Hee. As for the "interesting" part, I think there are a few different ways it could be played if it happened -- too early to worry much about it except that neither of us would want to commit ourselves to confirming or denying witchdoctor (or scotsman) as a role between now and then. You said you were on Idle's list, right? I never did.
I think we're very likely to get boxed in ANYWAY, so that's not so much a consideration as the loss of the power would be -- it's not impossible we'd have to take two shots at the witches ourselves in order to remove them, for instance, though the Wolves/Undead just might be willing to take them down to a single player to be certain their investigation power was removed, in which case (secret powers aside), the last witch would be completely vulnerable to us if we had a power use left and knew who it was.
Meh, I guess we shouldn't burn a power just on a chance of keeping one of us alive who does not have a secret power left himself. I just can't escape the desire to do something fun and nuts given we're on that path already.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 30, 2010 10:41:20 GMT -5
I too am very tempted to do it for giggles.
If you didn't say anything much about Idle's list, you can always say that you wanted to sit tight and see what the hell was going on...
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 30, 2010 11:11:19 GMT -5
OK. If Idle is killed tonight, he should still be Disguised as a Scotsman and so the Coroner will be told that. Pleo, is that right?Yes, Idol is a Scotsman for all game purposes for the Day One and Night One.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 30, 2010 12:19:55 GMT -5
Cool. Well, you both do what you want. I'll just sit back and enjoy the laughs.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 30, 2010 13:14:47 GMT -5
OK. Fundamentally, it's not fair to other players not to play to win. By all means we should do fun stuff, but going crazy with no intent to actually win is just spoiling the game for others. And I don't really think this gets us closer to winning.
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Post by Renata on Jul 30, 2010 13:51:20 GMT -5
All right. *pouts*
LOL.
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