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Post by Pleonast on Aug 4, 2010 14:06:32 GMT -5
Decide who to block.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 4, 2010 17:18:56 GMT -5
I totally and strongly think BuffTabby is lying out of her ass about being a Freemason.
I think she's a wolf (or Vamp).
And Ed says Sach is a vamp, for sure...but is he to be believed?
And even if she is a wolf and he is a vamp...what's that say for us? Do we want to block either? Or anyone, for that matter?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 4, 2010 17:19:41 GMT -5
Seems to me the only benefit to blocking is in case someone is trying to kill one of us. Other than that, any kill might kill a Witch and we wouldn't want to block it in that case.
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Post by Renata on Aug 4, 2010 19:41:12 GMT -5
Don't forget the Seer. But let's see what we can figure out over the next couple of days. I've been slacking; I'll try to make up for it.
MentalGuy just claimed detective, and that Inner Stickler killed MHaye. If this is accurate, the wolves should kill MentalGuy, because with two wolves down and the Seer still around (at least as far as anyone knows), the witches help town more by making sure they stay intact than by protecting an exposed detective.
If this is not accurate ... the only halfway reasonable false claim would be if MG is himself a wolf (undead can't risk the wolves calling them a liar so early, even if they would wind up with a dead wolf in the process). In that case the wolf kill might logically go elsewhere. (And illogically it could go anywhere regardless.)
Don't ask me what the vampires might do. Other than that it looks more likely one of them took a shot at the wrong witch, and might try again.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 4, 2010 20:41:19 GMT -5
So...what you both think we should do? Block or not block? And if block, who? Let's see...
01. moodymitchy 02. bufftabby -- CLAIM FREEMASON 04. Pollux Oil 05. storyteller 06. eureka - CLAIM WITCH 08. BillMc 09. MentalGuy - CLAIM DETECTIVE 11. Honest Moley 12. Inner Stickler - ACCUSED SCUM 13. stanislaus 14. Captain Pinkies - ACCUSED VICAR 15. Mister Blockey 16. Sister Coyote 17. Idle Thoughts - CABAL 18. septimus - CABAL 19. sachertorte - ACCUSED VAMP 20. nphase - CABAL 21. FlyingCowOfDoom 22. duvsie 23. redskeezix 24. Kat! 25. Nanook - CLAIM WITCH
Taking out all of the claimed, accused and people we know leaves us with:
01. moodymitchy 04. Pollux Oil 05. storyteller 08. BillMc 11. Honest Moley 13. stanislaus 15. Mister Blockey 16. Sister Coyote 21. FlyingCowOfDoom 22. duvsie 23. redskeezix 24. Kat!
One of them is probably the Seer...
Personal thoughts: I don't think that SISTERCOYOTE, KAT, STANISLAUS, or FLYINGCOWOFDOOM is the Seer due to how they're acting. I'm actually pinging them as scummy ish. I doubt DUVSIE is since they've all of abandoned the game and I like to think Pleonast wouldn't let a role that important for Town go unused. That leaves
01. moodymitchy 04. Pollux Oil 05. storyteller 08. BillMc 11. Honest Moley 15. Mister Blockey 23. redskeezix
My best guess (and a guess/feeling is all it is, so obviously it doesn't hold much worth) is that Redskeezix or Mister Blockey is the Seer.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 5, 2010 3:32:37 GMT -5
I think with a detective claim on the board, the chances of me being targeted by Wolves have fallen considerably.
I'm glad you think I'm not the Seer, Idle!
Even blocking the Seer isn't necessarily the best plan for us - they're the best shot we have of finding Undead, so cutting down their investigations will not necessarily be to our advantage. It's a balancing act - are any of us more likely to be investigated toNight? Personally I think sach has a good chance of being investigated.
Remember that if we keep a Witchdoctor disguise in our pocket, being found and lynched isn't necessarily appalling for us - it depends when in the game the Seer announces investigations.
sach is going to be very strongly coming out for no-one else revealing investigation results tomorrow - we've got a certain lynch and he won't want people giving away more info to scum. That works in our favour if it keeps any investigations about us silent till later in the game.
The alternative way to use the block is to investigate sach as Vampire. But it will mean one less kill.
Also, it's possible the Witches will consider protecting Mental Guy - is this a good Night for us to try a kill?
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Post by Renata on Aug 5, 2010 5:09:27 GMT -5
It might be, though I think they'd be most sensible to keep protecting themselves. Also, whichever vamp (presumably) went after one of them last night might dare the WIFOM to try again.
Who accused Eureka before Nanook stepped in? Not the third witch, those people.
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Post by Renata on Aug 5, 2010 6:54:10 GMT -5
Hey Idle, how come I can't choose invisible mode anymore? I thought I had last night, but now I show up and when I go to my profile, the option is gone.
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Post by Renata on Aug 5, 2010 8:28:32 GMT -5
I'm putting together a day one vote summary now (almost done), but just have to laugh at the reaction to Mister Blockey's vote on sachertorte for trying to control the discussion. He got such grief about that, from probable-scum SisC and Inner Stickler to boot, as well as from sachertorte himself.
Yet he was probably right. I feel for him; that's exactly the same sort of slightly off-kilter, "scum mindset" sort of vote that tends to get me in trouble -- but in hindsight it makes perfect sense.
Anyway, especially given that SisC and IS voted for him, I have a likely town read, though it's possible he's Undead.
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Post by Renata on Aug 5, 2010 9:04:03 GMT -5
Wasn't thinking straight earlier about Mental Guy -- he's almost certainly a detective. MHaye's alignment will be revealed in the morning -- if he were a wolf or an undead, then MG's claim would be shot to heck before it could even do any good. Given special ed claimed mhaye for their own side during the day, there's practically no chance even a crazy shortsighted Vampire or Necromancer would make such a claim. ("Cabal wouldn't do even with a hypothetical night-kill survival, for the same reason.") And a wolf would be in trouble doing it too, when the expected night kill failed to materialize.
So we got another wolf! Nice.
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Post by Renata on Aug 5, 2010 9:27:42 GMT -5
I posted some things in the summary thread, if you guys could take a look. The last witch appears to be hiding among only six players, so if one of you could search through the thread on "eureka" for suspicious posts from any of those six it might be useful.
Nothing jumps out in terms of connection to special Ed. He chucked a bussing vote on Inner Stickler based on low participation; it's possible his similar vote on Duvsie could have been the same thing, but not certain. Septimus is also a possible wolf, as is SisC, but the best lead is probably what stanislaus found on FCOD.
sachertorte looks so much scummier on re-read -- confirmation bias is a wonderful thing.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 5, 2010 11:58:05 GMT -5
First thought: Remember, MentalGuy could very easily and possibly still be scum. If he was a wolf this would be an EXCELLENT gamebit. Because he'd know Inner Stickler was a wolf (obviously) and he'd know he could safely claim Detective since there are three of them and they don't know who each other are. So suppose Inner gets killed or lynched and comes up wolf...then what? Then MG has Town cred on him even though he could still very possibly be scum.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 5, 2010 12:11:17 GMT -5
Second: You can be invisible now. I had turned it off since I heard people were saying me seeing invisible people gave me a slight advantage..so I had made it so nobody could be invisible so that there was no "advantage" anymore...but it's all good now.
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Post by Renata on Aug 5, 2010 12:34:34 GMT -5
First thought: Remember, MentalGuy could very easily and possibly still be scum. If he was a wolf this would be an EXCELLENT gamebit. Because he'd know Inner Stickler was a wolf (obviously) and he'd know he could safely claim Detective since there are three of them and they don't know who each other are. So suppose Inner gets killed or lynched and comes up wolf...then what? Then MG has Town cred on him even though he could still very possibly be scum. It would be a very short-term gambit, though, because there is no excuse for a claimed Detective to live long. They're too dangerous to the wolves. You can't spin it very well or very long as WIFOM, because for it to be WIFOM, then every single day MG survives there's a risk of him finding another of you. You can't spin it off as the witches protecting him, if in fact they don't (or if the kill numbers are off). I think it's unlikely. IMO it would be a stupid move. Sometimes scum do do stupid things/there may be something we don't know, yadda yadda, but I still think it unlikely.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 5, 2010 14:55:10 GMT -5
That's some really good work nphase.
I doubt buff is a Vampire - she's had two Days for masons to try to handshake with her. Even if she killed off squink, that would still leave two to find she was lying, possibly as early as Day One.
Possible Witches response to eureka, Day One:
1) Redskeezix
Denial they're on the same team. Could be defensive? Not impossible that eureka did follow the lead of a fellow Witch. Alternatively, no connection and red does seem happy to drop her in it.
2) Moodymitchy
This really rings a bell. Exactly the same as Nanook said - I've got this feeling she might be a newbie trying to hard. Very strong feeling on this one. On the other hand, it is immediately before Nanook's first defensive post - would he really feel the need to make it if a fellow Witch had just said the same thing?
BillMC and Pollux Oil appear and post after the case has been made against Eureka, but before the votes are piling on. They don't make any mention one way or another. Nor do they make much of an effort to put pressure on another candidate.
So of the list, I'd rate Moody above Red, above everyone else. Of course, it could be duvsie, but what the hell are you meant to do?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 6, 2010 2:22:03 GMT -5
So...what then? No block? Because the deadline is tomorrow. I'm fine with blocking anyone or nobody.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 6, 2010 2:23:35 GMT -5
PLEONAST...I might not be on again in time for the deadline...so consider me in agreement with whatever Stan and Nphase decide.
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 7:36:04 GMT -5
Are there any town night powers we really don't want to block? Because if not I'd be happy to block one of our probable town (Kat, Moley, Blockey) in the hopes of getting the seer. There's a small possibility I might be investigated on the "strength" of Special Ed's calling me an Undead.
And speaking of Special Ed, I had the wild thought that perhaps the wolf special power is a recruitment -- that would definitely be something that would be unlikely to work on a Vampire (and probably not on us, either). Up to 8 wolves sounds insane, but with three detectives, witch and seer, plus their vulnerability to the undead ... mayyyyybe.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 6, 2010 7:56:28 GMT -5
Yeah, I'm happy to block someone. Let's go for Mr Blockey. If only because it seems apt.
Do we want to try a kill of our own?
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Post by Pleonast on Aug 6, 2010 9:52:56 GMT -5
Looks like you're blocking Mister Blockey. Let me know if you want to change. PLEONAST...I might not be on again in time for the deadline...so consider me in agreement with whatever Stan and Nphase decide. Lack of comment implies consent.
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 10:28:53 GMT -5
Mister Blockey is fine by me.
The kill --- I don't know. Given we get immunity from death that night (plus possible bonus dead wolf or vampire) along with it and given there's no immediate reason to think either of us would be targeted by the wolves tonight and some reason (mental guy) to think they might try for something else, maybe it's not the right night. Also given the witches may be targeted again by not-us; and given they still (IMO) have every reason to self-protect ... Of course we'll be kicking ourselves if we wind up dead and lose the chance entirely.
What do you think?
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 13:19:14 GMT -5
That's some really good work nphase. I doubt buff is a Vampire - she's had two Days for masons to try to handshake with her. Even if she killed off squink, that would still leave two to find she was lying, possibly as early as Day One. Possible Witches response to eureka, Day One: 1) Redskeezix Denial they're on the same team. Could be defensive? Not impossible that eureka did follow the lead of a fellow Witch. Alternatively, no connection and red does seem happy to drop her in it. The really interesting thing about this comment is that I almost called him out on it (in combination with some other things), because he missed the real meaning. Moley was talking about him not being on the same team with sachertorte, not saying that he was on the same team as Eureka. Red Skeezix jumped to the wrong conclusion. The snuggling bit on the other hand -- not sure. Very, very suggestive, but all in all I think it points more to defensiveness than to an actual connection between them. Red's fairly cool; I don't think he'd react if they were both witches. I need to go read the whole exchange again, though. How "immediately"?
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 13:24:34 GMT -5
Hmm, in post 90, Eureka flat-out denies any relationship to Skeez. I'm tending to believe her -- her being town, her overall playstyle, etc. Witches can't talk during the Day; there'd be no one to discuss the ramifications of a flat-out lie with before she did it.
Hope I'm reading that right.
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 13:29:32 GMT -5
In post 170, MM leaves open the possibility that Eureka is scum --
Not sure that means anything, but may as well point it out.
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 13:33:20 GMT -5
Okay, found the MM/Nanook posts; they were about an hour and a half apart. So certainly Nanook saw MM's post before deciding to say the same thing.
Hell of a lot of a WIFOM in that, but the straighforward interpretation is that they are not both Witches. Who's that leave?
pollux oil storyteller billmc duvsie
None of them posted between the string of votes on Eureka (or during it) and Nanook's claim, so they can't be ruled out on that basis. (Skeez on bufftabby is the only vote that kinda stands out after Eureka's first cluster of votes, but we have her denial, so ...)
BillMc is interesting of those four -- when previous Conspiracy choices were being discussed, he commented on having found Witch to be a boring role last time he played. He didn't *have* to say anything at all about his previous choice. Nervousness, maybe?
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 6, 2010 13:41:59 GMT -5
Storyteller playing it cool would be the next option. Also, he's not been posting much, so there are other reasons for him not to be involved with the Eureka case.
As for the kill, the only reason I'm considering it is Ed's comments about me. But with MG definitely a Detective, and the Witches likely to self-protect, I don't see why they'd chance their arm with me. As you say, I just worry about the downside of losing one of us without taking our power. But I think the thing to do now is hang tough.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 6, 2010 13:48:14 GMT -5
Good point about BillMC. I had him down the list because he flat out ignored the case - he posts at 151, which is after Moley made the case and various people were saying it was a good case, but before the votes pile-up. IOW, a good time for a subtle defence, which he doesn't appear to make.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 6, 2010 14:05:17 GMT -5
AAUUGH!
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Post by Renata on Aug 6, 2010 14:07:09 GMT -5
*If* Bill is a witch, I could see him ignoring an early-day case in a situation where half the game's votes are needed to lynch. He's experienced enough to do that.
Did he vote in that post, maybe for mental guy? I can't find votes by him, but could have missed one.
As for hanging tough -- yeah. Scary. Good luck!
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