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Post by Pleonast on Aug 25, 2010 14:19:58 GMT -5
Another Day...
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 15:45:25 GMT -5
Hmm, I think we might have messed the game up a bit. We blocked Duvsie...well, read Duvsie's last post the last Night. Turns out she tried to kill FCoD last Night and was riding it being successful or not on whether he's a Vamp or not. --WE-- know, however, that it was unsuccessful not because he's a vamp, but because she was blocked, although he could be a vamp by coincidence, as well.
Am I missing something or is this what appears happened?
Anyway, so now we're faced with a dilemma. Undead may be in danger of winning if we mis lynch toDay. What we need to decide is if we come clean, in the Day thread, with blocking Duvsie....or let it go and lynch a possible Town and all lose the game?
Thing is...I thought the person blocked by Cabal was told they were blocked, specifically, by Cabal? If so, I wonder why Duvsie's not saying she was blocked and that it didn't just fail.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 15:54:04 GMT -5
OR...nphase....you can just join in the group to help lynch redskeezix since Sach's numbers have to be right. Wheew.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 18:27:54 GMT -5
Ah shit...Red just claimed to be the last Cabal. He's got to be the Necromancer. He also just accused Nphase of having to be the Necro by process of elimination. Well, here's hoping everyone else doesn't believe him..because if they do, Nphase will be lynched instead of him toDay. I really, really, really hope it's not lynch or lose toDay. If it is, and if people start believing Red, then the only way to stop Undead from winning would be for me to come out with the fact I'm Cabal and that Red is lying. But chances are, that would spell our chances of winning as no more too. The ONLY thing I can think of, if Red is believed and is either not lynched or Nphase is lynched...is from here on, we block Red at Night and he won't be able to zombify anyone else. He won't expect there to be a third Cabalist still existing. And he won't want to admit that he was blocked by a third Cabalist since it would give him away as being the Necro.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 18:33:10 GMT -5
Someone, Nphase, Stan...do the math, please (I'm horrible at math, it's my worse subject) and tell me if we're at lynch or lose toDay. It should be easy to do now that we just about know everyone's role via process of elimination.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 18:52:52 GMT -5
Screw it, I'll attempt it myself, then one of you can just tell me if I made a mistake or overlooked something:
Okay, first, the number of players still alive:
09. MentalGuy 14. Captain Pinkies 16. Sister Coyote 17. Idle Thoughts 18. septimus 19. sachertorte 20. nphase 21. FlyingCowOfDoom 22. duvsie 23. redskeezix 25. Nanook
This includes the Necro and another Vampire.
Next step, let's fill in the blanks:
09. MentalGuy - Detective 14. Captain Pinkies - Vicar 16. Sister Coyote 17. Idle Thoughts - Cabal 18. septimus - Witch 19. sachertorte - Detective 20. nphase - Cabal 21. FlyingCowOfDoom 22. duvsie - Wolf 23. redskeezix 25. Nanook - Witch
That leaves the Necro, the Vamp, and one more Wolf OR Detective. (Moley was either a Wolf or Detective....there are 7 Wolves. So far six have been accounted for: Ed, Inner Stickler, Mitch, Story, Bill, and Duvsie. Moley couldn't have been undead since Duvsie didn't kill him, so a Vamp had to)
Red has to be the Necro, FCoD is probably the vamp (since Duvsie says another wolf tried to kill him but it failed) and Sis has to be the Wolf or Detective.
But anyway, back to the subject at hand...there are currently FIVE zombies and two undead (vamp and necro).
IF the necro or a vamp is not lynched today, that would put the total undead at SEVEN...compared to the total number of everyone else still alive (if toDay's lynch is a non-Undead): EIGHT
That would mean we'd still be okay going into Night BUT.....if the Necro raises anyone else OR if ANY non-Undead person is killed the next Night....Undead wins.
So yeah, it looks like the very best bet is to get Red lynched toDay. Let's hope it goes that way.
I have a feeling FCoD will not be voting for Red.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 18:57:44 GMT -5
Obviously, Nphase, if you choose to counter role claim Cabal, either don't say anything about BillMc OR claim a one shot kill was your factions secret power. Because if you say the power was disguise, they'll obviously know someone else might not be what they say they are (I.E. Me )
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Post by Renata on Aug 25, 2010 21:46:51 GMT -5
Fuck's sake, Nanook, way to make me feel like crap. It's not like continuing to participate as Cabal is oh-so-much better; it's just that unlike the Undead we have very little chance to win. There was no good answer for me here.
Try to contrive some way to get sachertorte to say whose death he checked out last night, Idle -- Red's claim that Cabal killed Bill should provide a pretense. If he checked out someone other than Bill I'm free to claim Bill's death (and more importantly our reasoning for it) as part of my "defense" without complications.
I wish I could post now but I have no time. We're traveling tomorrow. Don't let them end the day early (unless it swings strongly to Red); I'll be back Friday as planned.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 25, 2010 22:39:09 GMT -5
All right, but knowing Sach as I do, I doubt he'll share the info. He'll probably claim the info is best kept secret for now in case someone can be tripped up by it later. That's a reason I'd keep it secret if I were that role.
I'll try, though.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 26, 2010 6:03:15 GMT -5
I'm kicking myself about Bill being a Wolf - I thought being late for the duvsie vote just made him non-Town, but of course it was much more likely they'd be on the same team - which made it much more likely they were wolves. So of course we should have blocked Red last night.
Never mind. Town are going to lynch red, duvsie, FCOD, SisC, nphase, in some order. .Frankly, it would be in our interests to get nphase lynched early, because people will write us off.
Unfortunately, the remaining Wolves are unlikely to go for Witches (especially if they think there are still Cabal). They'll have two NKs and know who to avoid, so they'll probably go for sach and Mental Guy. . The remaining Vamp now has an almost impossible WinCon, but needs to kill pretty much everyone. They won't go for Witches, because they might fail. Wolves might be a good target for them.
So basically, we're pretty much screwed. The only hope is that the game keeps going, Idle remains trusted and somehow the kills whittle everyone down, including a Witch. But it's a long, long shot.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 26, 2010 16:58:37 GMT -5
Look, I don't get/understand the "We're screwed"...I looked at the wincon and we only need one more witch dead. One more and then we just need to survive to the end of the game (wolves and vamps dead). It's possible. *shrugs*
Yeah, they're talking about NKing nphase toNight (the wolves are), but who knows if they really will?
And Sach says he didn't get any read last night, Nphase. Not sure if that makes you want to counterclaim cabal or what.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 26, 2010 17:00:23 GMT -5
And now Sach is going with voting for FCoD...wtf? What's he on? Maybe he's been recruited. Why on earth would nobody vote for one of the two POSSIBLE NECROMANCERS? They're about to win!
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 26, 2010 20:11:38 GMT -5
I love being confirmed Town. That's right, Nanook! You're totally correct! I'm confirmed Town! Good boy!
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 26, 2010 20:12:36 GMT -5
That's a private response to Nanook's Day 6, post 87.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 27, 2010 3:41:43 GMT -5
Yeah, but who's going to kill the Witch for us? They basically don't need to investigate anymore, so there's a 50/50 shot that any Witch they target is being protected. The same can't be said of the remaining Wolves and Detectives (or our mod-confirmed Town Scotsman!), so none of the killing roles is likely to our job for us.
I agree that if a Witch does die, you've got an excellent chance of skating through to win in the end game. I just can't see anyone doing us that much of a favour.
Also, when your true identity is revealed - especially if we win! - there is going to be something of an explosion in the ranks. Brace yourselves.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 27, 2010 5:18:36 GMT -5
Haha, that's what I think too. I actually was thinking the people still in game would think it's a bastard mod style, but Pleo did point out, in the rules, where he plainly says "not all might really be as it appears", so he's given an excellent out. Yeah, you're right, we basically just have to hope one of the vamps or wolves kill a Witch somehow. Unlikely, probably, but not impossible. I'll be hoping every Night (along with my survival)
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Aug 27, 2010 5:22:11 GMT -5
I think my being a "confirmed Scotsman" works for me in all ways, though..because Town certainly isn't going to lynch me and scum doesn't want to waste a kill on a Town role that is so "useless" now, you know? I was hoping that'd be the case. With the numbers getting smaller and smaller now, though--and everyone basically revealed to be what's left--not so sure it will matter much anymore. I might get killed just to clear the herd some. Still, of all the "Town" roles to scum, a Scotsman would have to be the last on their list of important roles to get out of the game. Wolves will probably want to get the other potential Necro out (so Nphase will probably die toNight)...and the Vamp will probably want Captain out of the game, although with the Necro dead, it won't matter much.
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Post by stanislaus on Aug 27, 2010 8:56:19 GMT -5
When the Necro dies, don't all the Zombies disappear in a puff of colour? So it should be obvious Red's the Necro, and there won't be a need to get rid of nphase.
That said, I do expect you to die, nphase, just because you're an available target. Not worth a lynch, though.
In terms of targets: Wolves will go for any non-Witch, non-Vamp. They don't even need to worry about Detectives any more. Vamps will go for any non-Witch, non-Vicar.
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