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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 7:57:00 GMT -5
Post by fubbleskag on Jul 27, 2011 7:57:00 GMT -5
meeko you big party pooper you! We can debate this here, or elsewhere, Fubbs, but as I saw it, it broke the game wide open for Scum. Sorry for comming down hard on you, but I can't see a better way around it. Again, lots to talk about once this game is over. nah, you did the right thing. the boring thing, but the right thing.
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Meeko
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 10:48:55 GMT -5
Post by Meeko on Jul 27, 2011 10:48:55 GMT -5
I've done it a couple of times, Meeko, but :biteme: anyway i've done it twice too. ;D [OOG] there might be flooding in my area due to a nearby typhoon. my internet connection might be cut if the waters are particularly bad. [/OOG] I did it once..... in a game I'd rather forget. Drew a LOT of heat from it as well. Then again, I was non vanilla town, and I was the first vote on me.
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 10:53:25 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 27, 2011 10:53:25 GMT -5
I went back and looked at gnarlycharlie and Sister Coyote, to see if I was perhaps premature in declaring them 'probable Town'. gnarlycharlie and Sister Coyote were the first two players to vote for colby on Day 1, in Posts 180 and 189, respecively. By that time, Trepa had already garnered 8 votes. Both players had a rather long 'posting drought' during the latter stages of Day 1. gnarlycharlie made Post 201, at which time the vote was still 8-2 in favor of lynching Trepa, then didn't post again until Post 319, by which time the count was 7-4. Sister Coyote's last post of the Day was 252, when the count was 8-3. She didn't post again until Night. So it's conceivable, looking at Day 1, that gnarly and SisC were bussing colby early when he was in no danger of a lynch, then due to real-life issues were away while the tide turned against him, and only got back to the game after things once again swung toward Trepa, wiithout their help. Looking at all of the votes placed on or removed from either Trepa or colby after gnarly and SisC placed their votes, every single one of them was from a confirmed or all-but-confirmed Townie except for one: Silver Jan unvoted Trepa in Post 269, when the vote count was still 7-3. On Day 2, SisC placed the first vote on colby in Post 126. She made only 2 more posts that Day (145 and 209) before going out of town. By post 209, the vote count was colby-5, Suburban Plankton-4. And the 5th vote on colby had come just in post 196, from gnarly, to break a 4-4 tie. The Day 2 voting makes it seem to me highly unlikely that either Sister Coyote or gnarlycharlie are Scum, because either of them could have voted for Suburban over colby, since the arguments against both were quite similar. Looking at the voters on Trepa and colby on Day 1 we see: Voting for trepa - 3 dead Townies, 1 dead Scum, 1 claimed Mason, 1 fubbles-confirmed Townie, and SuburbanVoting for colby - 2 dead townies, SisC, and gnarlyLooking at the voters on both colby and Suburban on Day 2, we see: Voting for colby - 2 dead Townies, 2 fubbles-confirmed Townies, SisC, and gnarlyVoting for Suburban - 1 dead Scum, 1 claimed Mason, Silver Jan, and CatInaSuitBased on this and what I said in Post D4-45, I'd put CatInaSuit at the top of my list of probable Scum after Deni.
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 11:29:51 GMT -5
Post by Deni on Jul 27, 2011 11:29:51 GMT -5
Deni, I notice you haven't voted yet Today... ;D LOL - of course, how silly of me to forget... Outrun fubblestag like anyone expected me to vote any other way. GO TEAM!!
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 13:27:55 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 27, 2011 13:27:55 GMT -5
Am I correct in my assumption that there is no hammer in this game?
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 14:27:05 GMT -5
Post by Suburban Plankton on Jul 27, 2011 14:27:05 GMT -5
Did someone call for a Hammer?
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 14:33:42 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 27, 2011 14:33:42 GMT -5
[sarcasm] TYVM for THAT earworm
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 14:35:42 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 27, 2011 14:35:42 GMT -5
Since the majority of the votes are on Deni I see no reason to pile my vote there (She will be lynched anyway)
The fact that Storyteller has shared some analysis but never voted is quite suspect to me.
Using the perspective at this time that SP was the intended train to save Colby .
That puts CatinASuit in the same boat as SilverJan (in my mind)
CiAS ‘s participation has been MUCH lower than SJ’s so I will
Outrun CatinASuit for the record.
If all goes well I will be travelling at EOD (if plans fail will be sure to share my bitch with y’all)
I am aware of the fact that SP could be Scum. If that’s the case it looks like a bus. Either way I’m OK with my vote and leaving this record incase I wake up dead
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Meeko
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 17:16:49 GMT -5
Post by Meeko on Jul 27, 2011 17:16:49 GMT -5
Deni (8): Silver Jan, JBGinger, CIAS, GnarlyCharly. Inner Sticker, SuburanPlankton, SisCoyote, MoodyMitchy,
Fubble (1): Deni
CIAS (1): LightFoot
No Hammer.
I finally got the timing down on this game, and can't gaurantee that I can be here when the hammer would end the day.
I'm not against speeding up the Day Cycle, but I will have to figure that out once I get to it. As it is, I still don't know what I am working this Saturday, let alone next week.
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 17:34:15 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 27, 2011 17:34:15 GMT -5
That makes sense to me Meeko
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 19:58:51 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 27, 2011 19:58:51 GMT -5
One other thing: Our masons are not confirmed until one of them comes up dead. Sorry, moody and lightfoot, but that's the way it is. The fact that no one has counterclaimed you makes your story most probable, but until one or the other of you flips we just don't know for sure. I disagree with this. The Masons are confirmed. There is no even remotely reasonable scenario in which they are lying, other than a scenario in which the real Masons have been eating paint directly off the walls. As to vigging Deni and voting for someone else toDay, it probably comes to the same in the end. Let's see: Assume (as before) four living Scum, so we're at 9-4. By toNight it will be 9-3 (assuming we lynch Deni). Of those 12 players, 7 are lynchable. ToNight, the Vig kills a lynchable (let's assume he kills a vanilla) and the Scum kill fubbleskag.
Day Five dawns at 7-3, six lynchables. Say we mislynch. Down to 6-3, five lynchables. Scum kill a non-lynchable, Vig kills a lynchable (note that the Scum may try to catch the Vig here; if they do, and fail, the game is REALLY over).
Day Six dawns at 5-3. There are four lynchable players - but one is the Vig; the other three are Scum. All lynchable players will claim Vig here. We choose not to lynch. Still 5-3 into Night Six. Scum kill a lynchable, Vig kills a Scum. 4-2 into Day Seven. We choose not to lynch again. On Night Seven, Vig kills a Scum, Scum kills a lynchable. 3-1 into Day Eight. We choose not to lynch a third time; that night, Vig finishes off Scum, and game over.
The Scum can short circuit this plan by Vig-chasing, but if they get it wrong and accidentally kill a vanilla even once, then the game is really over.
----
I still see no chance for the Scum to win. Unless there are FIVE of them still alive, which would mean we started with SIX Scum. Let's play that out.
If there are five scum alive then right now we're at 8-5. By toNight, we're at 8-4. Of those 12, 7 are still lynchable. Vig kills a lynchable (assume a dead vanilla); Scum kill fubbleskag.
Day Five dawns at 6-4. Ten players remain, of which 6 are lynchable - the lynchable pool includes the Vig, one vanilla, and four Scum. If we get it wrong and lynch the vanilla (5-4), then that Night the Vig knows who the Scum is and the Scum know who the Vig is. Vig kills a Scum and Scum kill a non-lynchable (4-3). Hm. This is interesting.
Day Six starts with seven living players: three Scum, one Vig, three unlynchable players. Town has two choices: try to identify the Scum, or no-lynch. If we try to identify the Scum, we have a 75% of hitting the Scum, but a 25% chance of losing outright.
If we no-lynch then on Night Six the Vig will kill one of the Scum (4-2) but the Scum will kill. Either a non-lynchable or the Vig. Say it's the Vig (3-2). Now we know who the Scum are; we lynch them in order Days Seven and Eight, game over.
So they kill a non-lynchable (3-2). Next Day we're faced with the same choice. We no-lynch again. Vig kills a Scum, Scum kill a non-lynchable. Dawn comes. Three players alive - one non-lynchable player, one Vig, one Scum. We no-lynch yet AGAIN. Scum kill whoever, Vig kills Scum, the cheese stands alone, Town wins at 1-0.
I conclude the following things:
1. I still don't see how the Scum can win this game, short of taking a huge risk and hitting the Vig, like, toNight, unless they started with seven Scum. Fubbleskag, make sure you place an investigation order tonight even though you expect to die. The Scum, if they agree with this analysis, may decide to shoot for the Vig, and if they hit him/her, your investigation may be very useful.
2. We should NOT lynch anyone but Deni toNight. The reason is that we wish to keep the Vig concealed. Any target but Deni (or I guess Silver Jan) could hypothetically be the Vig, and there is no advantage to outing the Vig now, I don't think.
3. Tonight, the Vig should kill someone from the following subset of players:
3A - Sister Coyote 3B - gnarlycharly 3C - Inner Stickler 3D - Suburban Plankton 3E - storyteller (don't kill me; I'm not Scum) 3F - Silver Jan 3G - CatinaSuit
Outrun Deni
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 20:01:26 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 27, 2011 20:01:26 GMT -5
By the way. Yes, I have not voted (until just now). I acknowledge that this sucks. I have had real-life technical difficulties that have variously kept me from participating or even really keeping up with events. Had I been able to place a vote, it would have been an entirely uninformed and useless one.
That's the entire explanation. I realize that real-life issues are not an excuse, and indeed I would be suspicious of me and blame no one if they are, but it seemed worthwhile to put this post on the record.
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 20:33:44 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 27, 2011 20:33:44 GMT -5
By the way. Yes, I have not voted (until just now). I acknowledge that this sucks. I have had real-life technical difficulties that have variously kept me from participating or even really keeping up with events. Had I been able to place a vote, it would have been an entirely uninformed and useless one. That's the entire explanation. I realize that real-life issues are not an excuse, and indeed I would be suspicious of me and blame no one if they are, but it seemed worthwhile to put this post on the record. I can understand that. And It is apprapo that you addressed it. If you had another vote where would you place it and why? I feel that extra votes on Deni are wasted at this time. (see above) Vote and dash helps us NOT our next Day Btw thanks for your perspective on the Mason claim SisC looks all the worse for it
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 21:26:13 GMT -5
Post by Inner Stickler on Jul 27, 2011 21:26:13 GMT -5
The only confirmed player is a dead player is not an outmoded philosophy. But it is more useful in closed setups. You are probably not familiar with the Ragnarok game but scum won because two scum claimed a 2 part masonry with each other. A few Days in, with no counterclaim, we concluded they must be telling the truth. In reality, there were no masons and scum had been told that beforehand. A unique situation, but I know it was a wake up call for me, and I think, several other players to never trust anything but what is in the day and dusk mod posts. Again, that was a closed setup, not open, but I wouldn't fault anyone for trying to play the game with as few assumptions as possible.
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Meeko
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 21:48:59 GMT -5
Post by Meeko on Jul 27, 2011 21:48:59 GMT -5
The only confirmed player is a dead player is not an outmoded philosophy. But it is more useful in closed setups. You are probably not familiar with the Ragnarok game but scum won because two scum claimed a 2 part masonry with each other. A few Days in, with no counterclaim, we concluded they must be telling the truth. In reality, there were no masons and scum had been told that beforehand. A unique situation, but I know it was a wake up call for me, and I think, several other players to never trust anything but what is in the day and dusk mod posts. Again, that was a closed setup, not open, but I wouldn't fault anyone for trying to play the game with as few assumptions as possible. Note to self: Revisit this when we get to the end of this game.
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Meeko
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 21:52:58 GMT -5
Post by Meeko on Jul 27, 2011 21:52:58 GMT -5
There is a strong possibility that I wont be able to "touch" the game again until End of Day 4.
Traveling, taking the PC with me. It will be packed up until Thursday evening.
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Day 4
Jul 27, 2011 23:08:51 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 27, 2011 23:08:51 GMT -5
The only confirmed player is a dead player is not an outmoded philosophy. But it is more useful in closed setups. You are probably not familiar with the Ragnarok game but scum won because two scum claimed a 2 part masonry with each other. A few Days in, with no counterclaim, we concluded they must be telling the truth. In reality, there were no masons and scum had been told that beforehand. A unique situation, but I know it was a wake up call for me, and I think, several other players to never trust anything but what is in the day and dusk mod posts. Again, that was a closed setup, not open, but I wouldn't fault anyone for trying to play the game with as few assumptions as possible. That is very nice but this an "open game" this addition does not paint you pretty. yep call it a smudge if you will
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 2:05:23 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Jul 28, 2011 2:05:23 GMT -5
Storeyteller told a really nice tale but what if the scum don't go Vig hunting? What if they decide to take out the Masons? If I can think of it then so can scum. I'm not sure if I make sense but Storeytellers analysis seems to rely on the Scum Vig hunting. Is this his way of telling us what Scum won't do because he is Scum? Just putting it out there and you can take it as a smudge.
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 5:28:18 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jul 28, 2011 5:28:18 GMT -5
Storeyteller told a really nice tale but what if the scum don't go Vig hunting? What if they decide to take out the Masons? If I can think of it then so can scum. I'm not sure if I make sense but Storeytellers analysis seems to rely on the Scum Vig hunting. Is this his way of telling us what Scum won't do because he is Scum? Just putting it out there and you can take it as a smudge. Did you actually read my post? My analysis covers both possibilities - that the Scum will hunt the Vig or that the Scum will instead kill unlynchables (Masons or players cleared by fubbleskag, which amount to Masons). I think they will attempt the former, simply because if they attempt the latter - as shown in my post - they cannot win, whereas if they kill the Vig they have a chance, albeit an extremely slim chance, of pulling it out.
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 5:41:56 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Jul 28, 2011 5:41:56 GMT -5
Storeyteller told a really nice tale but what if the scum don't go Vig hunting? What if they decide to take out the Masons? If I can think of it then so can scum. I'm not sure if I make sense but Storeytellers analysis seems to rely on the Scum Vig hunting. Is this his way of telling us what Scum won't do because he is Scum? Just putting it out there and you can take it as a smudge. Did you actually read my post? My analysis covers both possibilities - that the Scum will hunt the Vig or that the Scum will instead kill unlynchables (Masons or players cleared by fubbleskag, which amount to Masons). I think they will attempt the former, simply because if they attempt the latter - as shown in my post - they cannot win, whereas if they kill the Vig they have a chance, albeit an extremely slim chance, of pulling it out. I supose I did skim a lot as I have just got home and have quite a bit to read, so are you saying that the Mod should just end the game now? As you say it will be a very lucky shot if they get the Vig straight away and they can't afford to let fubbles live. P.S, maths is not my strong point
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 10:07:41 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Jul 28, 2011 10:07:41 GMT -5
<font style="font-size: 12px;">The only confirmed player is a dead player is not an outmoded philosophy. But it is more useful in closed setups. You are probably not familiar with the Ragnarok game but scum won because two scum claimed a 2 part masonry with each other. A few Days in, with no counterclaim, we concluded they must be telling the truth. In reality, there were no masons and scum had been told that beforehand. A unique situation, but I know it was a wake up call for me, and I think, several other players to never trust anything but what is in the day and dusk mod posts. Again, that was a closed setup, not open, but I wouldn't fault anyone for trying to play the game with as few assumptions as possible. This is exactly to what I was referring. And everyone seems to be ignoring the part where I said that the Masons in this game are more likely who they say they are than not. I just don't like the complacency we see where Masons are concerned in particular, that's all. Vig, if you kill me, you're striking in the wrong place. Personally, I'd go after Silver Jan, if it were me.
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 10:09:06 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Jul 28, 2011 10:09:06 GMT -5
<font style="font-size: 12px;">
Storeyteller told a really nice tale but what if the scum don't go Vig hunting? What if they decide to take out the Masons? If I can think of it then so can scum. I'm not sure if I make sense but Storeytellers analysis seems to rely on the Scum Vig hunting. Is this his way of telling us what Scum won't do because he is Scum? Just putting it out there and you can take it as a smudge.
Did you actually read my post?
My analysis covers both possibilities - that the Scum will hunt the Vig or that the Scum will instead kill unlynchables (Masons or players cleared by fubbleskag, which amount to Masons). I think they will attempt the former, simply because if they attempt the latter - as shown in my post - they cannot win, whereas if they kill the Vig they have a chance, albeit an extremely slim chance, of pulling it out.
I supose I did skim a lot as I have just got home and have quite a bit to read, so are you saying that the Mod should just end the game now? As you say it will be a very lucky shot if they get the Vig straight away and they can't afford to let fubbles live. P.S, maths is not my strong point You know, this just reinforces my belief that you're probably Scum, though I can't put my finger quite on why. That said, though, in Alice it seemed a foregone conclusion that Scum had lost and yet guiri very nearly managed to turn it around and win it for his team.
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 12:46:49 GMT -5
Post by Deni on Jul 28, 2011 12:46:49 GMT -5
~~snipped~~ so are you saying that the Mod should just end the game now? ~~snipped~~ NO! Scum should continue to fight to the end. Scum is scum, they live for the challenge!! Yes, I realize I have one foot in the grave but I ain't dead yet.
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 13:51:44 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Jul 28, 2011 13:51:44 GMT -5
@ SisC, the reason you can't put your finger on the fact that I am Scum is cos I isn't. I know I went on holiday and I haven't had a DSL line for 3 weeks so I had to cut down on writing, I still tried to contribute as much as possible (for those of you in USA, our bandwidth is an horrendous price here on wireless) it's no excuse mind you but now I have my uncapped back Seriously, if I was scum would I have brought up those Lemmings so soon, I had no idea scum would be Lemmings too but I wasn't brung in on a potato cart! If I was a scum Lemming would I even have mentioned Vanilla Town Lemmings???
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 14:10:06 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 28, 2011 14:10:06 GMT -5
@ SisC, the reason you can't put your finger on the fact that I am Scum is cos I isn't. I know I went on holiday and I haven't had a DSL line for 3 weeks so I had to cut down on writing, I still tried to contribute as much as possible (for those of you in USA, our bandwidth is an horrendous price here on wireless) it's no excuse mind you but now I have my uncapped back Seriously, if I was scum would I have brought up those Lemmings so soon, I had no idea scum would be Lemmings too but I wasn't brung in on a potato cart! If I was a scum Lemming would I even have mentioned Vanilla Town Lemmings??? As I recall you were the first to assume "all the same animal" from your PM. I'm not sure you mentioned Lemmings until one flipped. I will go check that of course
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 14:17:54 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 28, 2011 14:17:54 GMT -5
Fubbles You claimed Early with no counterclaim. So you are the detective Mod confirmed even…You’ve not voted at ALL . Your 11th hour reveal was incorrect information. And you’ve not even addressed the reasoning behind these things. If this wasn’t an open game……………………
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 14:19:24 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Jul 28, 2011 14:19:24 GMT -5
To be honest, I can't remember either but I am fairly sure I brought up Lemmings before one flipped, however I didn't say I was a Wrangel Island Lemming before someone either flipped or claimed.
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 14:22:04 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Jul 28, 2011 14:22:04 GMT -5
How do you do searches? LightFoot you can put up instructions on FB cos it might be tedious here but whenever I want to quote someone I go back to D1 and read everything, it's rather time consuming lol
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 14:24:51 GMT -5
Post by Silver Jan on Jul 28, 2011 14:24:51 GMT -5
FubblesYou claimed Early with no counterclaim. So you are the detective Mod confirmed even…You’ve not voted at ALL . Your 11th hour reveal was incorrect information. And you’ve not even addressed the reasoning behind these things. If this wasn’t an open game…………………… Do you think there are some shenaningans going on here?
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Day 4
Jul 28, 2011 14:32:43 GMT -5
Post by LightFoot on Jul 28, 2011 14:32:43 GMT -5
How do you do searches? LightFoot you can put up instructions on FB cos it might be tedious here but whenever I want to quote someone I go back to D1 and read everything, it's rather time consuming lol I Know how to search one player at a time by clicking on their name. I think you can search keywords but I have not tried it
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