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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 9, 2011 21:14:20 GMT -5
Actually, let me post it myself. To even stand a chance at meeting my win con I need to be alive on D6. And that will not be the case if scum win today-- so if scum win, I lose, town loses. Likewise, if I had bumped off scum early on, I would have had no chance at meeting my wincon either. So I am pretty sure it is 4-4-1, and that Moley and Lightfoot are scum. I have poisoned Lightfoot -- so barring the scum having an antidote, she's dead at dusk. I think the scum reached the conclusion that I had poisoned her and hence their votes on her to lose only one rather than two scum. So Townies, voting Lightfoot is a waste of your vote. With Lightfoot poisoned, and another scum lynched - e.g. Moley, we will go into N5 @ 4-2-1 So the scum will either kill town, or kill me --- so at dawn: 4-2-0 - looks good for town 3-2-1 - scum still have a chance Either way someone will still die tomorrow of poisoning. I do have the antidote which I can administer in the first 24hrs of the Day, but of course, I need to be alive to do that. As I see it, if Town doesn't want to trust me - then I get lynched today, and scum win. So if Town wants to try and win, then they need to trust me. If scum kill me off tonight, then town will most likely win. He made it clear he'd poison scum today, and he also made it clear who he thought the scum in question was. Ed must've been laughing his ass off at that one.
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Post by special on Nov 9, 2011 21:16:32 GMT -5
@moely, can you point to where your suspicion of peeker grew? Because to my eye it was Lightfoot, Ed, Bill, and then blame, vote peeker because he might be lynchable.
But I probably missed something.
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Post by special on Nov 9, 2011 21:23:51 GMT -5
Actually, let me post it myself. To even stand a chance at meeting my win con I need to be alive on D6. And that will not be the case if scum win today-- so if scum win, I lose, town loses. Likewise, if I had bumped off scum early on, I would have had no chance at meeting my wincon either. So I am pretty sure it is 4-4-1, and that Moley and Lightfoot are scum. I have poisoned Lightfoot -- so barring the scum having an antidote, she's dead at dusk. I think the scum reached the conclusion that I had poisoned her and hence their votes on her to lose only one rather than two scum. So Townies, voting Lightfoot is a waste of your vote. With Lightfoot poisoned, and another scum lynched - e.g. Moley, we will go into N5 @ 4-2-1 So the scum will either kill town, or kill me --- so at dawn: 4-2-0 - looks good for town 3-2-1 - scum still have a chance Either way someone will still die tomorrow of poisoning. I do have the antidote which I can administer in the first 24hrs of the Day, but of course, I need to be alive to do that. As I see it, if Town doesn't want to trust me - then I get lynched today, and scum win. So if Town wants to try and win, then they need to trust me. If scum kill me off tonight, then town will most likely win. He made it clear he'd poison scum today, and he also made it clear who he thought the scum in question was. Ed must've been laughing his ass off at that one. Ah, thanks, so he's likely poisoned you. So voting to kill you makes no sense whatsoever. Then we should lynch Pollux. Though I really do wish we could see your flip first, Moley.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 9, 2011 22:26:09 GMT -5
Well, it doesn't look like Inner's going to pop in today so I'll just go ahead and put my claim out there.
I snipped the "except" part of my role because I'd like to keep the scum guessing as to the full extent of my powers, just to keep them on their toes should they need to Nightkill to pull off a win toNight.
I've been trying to draw fire, but of course the scum and Mr. PoisonPants managed to not pick me the whole time. (I always get hit day one or day two if I'm a detective, but when I can survive shit they always leave me alone. Bah!) I almost thought about asking Ginger to shoot me at the end of Day 3 so I would be confirmed town and have to take two shots to die, but after the Day ended and the poisoner was shown to still be kicking our ass, I thought it would be better to try and draw an attack from scum or the poisoner so we wouldn't keep bleeding numbers.
While Bill may have gone after Moley with his last shot, I'm secretly hoping he went after me instead so I can weather the blast.
All the quoted vanilla claims have bothered me because everybody else seems to have "or removed from play" at the end of their wincon, although Paranoia did say he took precautions against a mass claim, so I assume wording is slightly different for every role.
Now Ed, since you feel so strongly about my scummitude, can you please tell me why, exactly? It seemed like you jumped on me and Moley as being scum for voting peeker...but peeker flipped scum soo0o0o0o? Is there a reason you've completely absolved Inner despite him being the only one other than you not to vote for peeker yesterDay?
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 9, 2011 22:29:03 GMT -5
@moely, can you point to where your suspicion of peeker grew? Because to my eye it was Lightfoot, Ed, Bill, and then blame, vote peeker because he might be lynchable. But I probably missed something. AGH Firefox crashed and I lost about half a freaking hour's worth of post. Plus all my tabs are screwed up. From memory: - I suspected Peeker on Day Three and Day Four. Less after he voted Ginger on Day Four because it seemed like he was throwing himself in harm's way before she'd even suggested he might be a target for her role. First suspected him because he went out of his way to add a smudge to a (valid) point that Paul made about me at the start of Day Three. Paul's points were valid, Peeker's were not. (This was four hours after I'd just made my case and vote on Texcat. Pollux, Ginger, you guys may want to bear that little point of timing in mind. I did.) After Texcat went, Peeker, you and Deni, who I'd just been re-reading, stood out to me as suspects. Later on Deni gave a pretty good account of herself, enough to convince me that the mistakes she'd made could be genuine, so I looked around for other suspects. I hadn't done any kind of detailed analysis on Lightfoot - I'd pretty much accepted her as likely town ever since she supported my Tex case - that only changed when I went through her posts during Night Four. And the rest I've been through in exhaustive detail. I'll give you the ammunition I presume you want: - No, I'm not aware that I made a case on Peeker before voting for him, at least not on that day. It was forty-eight hours of continually running into mental walls. "Exhausted my other options" pretty much describes how I felt about that point in the game. Lightfoot was dying anyway (said Bill), Bill was PFK (said Bill), Peeker still looked suspicious, and I couldn't see how he and Lightfoot could both be scum. I figured, at least we'll probably get one scum out of the mess, and voted Peek because, hey, Ginger's got a vote on him, why not? I thought there was a good chance we - the town - were going to lose the game then and there. I was pretty elated at the outcome, especially after that day.
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Post by special on Nov 9, 2011 22:45:29 GMT -5
Well, it doesn't look like Inner's going to pop in today so I'll just go ahead and put my claim out there. I snipped the "except" part of my role because I'd like to keep the scum guessing as to the full extent of my powers, just to keep them on their toes should they need to Nightkill to pull off a win toNight. I've been trying to draw fire, but of course the scum and Mr. PoisonPants managed to not pick me the whole time. (I always get hit day one or day two if I'm a detective, but when I can survive shit they always leave me alone. Bah!) I almost thought about asking Ginger to shoot me at the end of Day 3 so I would be confirmed town and have to take two shots to die, but after the Day ended and the poisoner was shown to still be kicking our ass, I thought it would be better to try and draw an attack from scum or the poisoner so we wouldn't keep bleeding numbers. While Bill may have gone after Moley with his last shot, I'm secretly hoping he went after me instead so I can weather the blast. All the quoted vanilla claims have bothered me because everybody else seems to have "or removed from play" at the end of their wincon, although Paranoia did say he took precautions against a mass claim, so I assume wording is slightly different for every role. Now Ed, since you feel so strongly about my scummitude, can you please tell me why, exactly? It seemed like you jumped on me and Moley as being scum for voting peeker...but peeker flipped scum soo0o0o0o? Is there a reason you've completely absolved Inner despite him being the only one other than you not to vote for peeker yesterDay? Yes and no
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Post by special on Nov 9, 2011 22:46:46 GMT -5
and there will be more if I get time
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Nov 10, 2011 10:17:58 GMT -5
Well, it doesn't look like Inner's going to pop in today so I'll just go ahead and put my claim out there. hmmm.... Scotsman is spelled with only one 't.' if i were Ginger i'd shoot you. since i'm not, Vote: Pollux Oil
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Nov 10, 2011 10:56:57 GMT -5
Well, it doesn't look like Inner's going to pop in today so I'll just go ahead and put my claim out there. hmmm.... Scotsman is spelled with only one 't.' if i were Ginger i'd shoot you. since i'm not, Vote: Pollux Oilhmmmmm... Now I have to determine if it was a spelling error by Pollux or by the MOD. That would be Pollux's second slip if so. The first slip would of been the post where he says "Lightfoot isn't town" and then in the next post says his mistake. I am also not liking the fact that he was against the lynch of Lightfoot and even commented about Gnarly not reading or getting the case for not lynching Lightfoot that Pollux made. The only thing that says town to me about him is the fact that he pointed out the mistake in Texcat's claim first and brought it to light. Maybe it was just a bus to get town credit.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 10, 2011 11:33:24 GMT -5
hmmm.... Scotsman is spelled with only one 't.' if i were Ginger i'd shoot you. since i'm not, Vote: Pollux OilI want you to think long and hard about how you're about to lose the game for the town, based on the fact you think I'm stupid enough to make up a fake claim and spell the goddamn role wrong. I quoted my role exactly, without changed anything except for the snipped part. If I was making a fake claim, I would be fucking meticulous over that crap. hmmmmm... Now I have to determine if it was a spelling error by Pollux or by the MOD. That would be Pollux's second slip if so. The first slip would of been the post where he says "Lightfoot isn't town" and then in the next post says his mistake. I am also not liking the fact that he was against the lynch of Lightfoot and even commented about Gnarly not reading or getting the case for not lynching Lightfoot that Pollux made. The only thing that says town to me about him is the fact that he pointed out the mistake in Texcat's claim first and brought it to light. Maybe it was just a bus to get town credit. Seriously? Okay, I'm just going to take a moment and berate everybody, don't take this personal. Stop being fucking lazy. You know what, I'm lazy too, I get it. But I want you to take a step back and go through all the "slips" people have made and how much trouble this goddamn town has gotten itself into because they wanted to vote people based on "slips" instead of actual analysis. This is Day 6 for crying out loud, there is a wealth of information at your fingertips. And you're basing your vote/possible vote off of a "slip" still? Read my posts. If you think my behavior is scummy, fine. Lose the game for the town that way when you vote for me. But for the love of God, everybody makes typoes and has brainfarts. The role was exactly how the mod gave it to me. Furthermore, about the whole "Lightfoot isn't town" thing? Lightfoot was a traitor, are you already forgetting that? Paranoia says a traitor wouldn't know the other scum, which means it's highly possible the scum didn't know Lightfoot was scum, either. There are two people that didn't vote for peeker that are left in the game: Ed and Inner. What is it about Inner that makes you people not suspicious of him at all? Is there some sort of protective bubble around him? He didn't vote twice, he shows up like some sort of genie whenever I call him out, and he's the only one that hasn't claimed anything. He was the only person to continue voting Lightfoot when Bill claimed he had poisoned her. That is an anti-town action: if Lightfoot was town, we had to lynch someone else to keep the game even. If Lightfoot was scum, only scum would benefit by lynching her instead of letting her be poisoned. But nobody cares about that, do they? Because Pollux has an extra freakin' t in his role claim, he's the scum! Ugh. The fact of the matter is, if we're at 4-2 all the scum have to do toDay is get one townsperson to vote for another townsperson. Then the two of them jump on first, so the tie breaks in townie favor, and then they go to Night. If charlie is a mason (which we still don't know for 100% because Inner hasn't claimed) I now know for a fact that we have townie-on-townie action and this has given the scum the opportunity they need.
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Post by special on Nov 10, 2011 12:15:23 GMT -5
Can't see the game page anymore. Someone must have been cussing. But I can still read along in the most recent posts page.
Pollux:
Inner is not escape suspicion, For me, he's in the circle of potential Scum with you and Moley. And with the thought that he may very well be poisoned, my desire to lynch him has dimisnished.
I'm still concerned about the back and forth between you and Moley on day 5, especially regarding the fact that Moley may have investigated Lightfoot.
Now, this is where my paranoia takes over. IF the Scum cannot DayTalk and IF Moley had a power to try to find Lightfoot, it seems as if that might be an attempt to comunicate results.
I dunno. Could Moley have been planning to investigate Lightfoot but been blocked? Had he investigated Lightfoot but they decided to try to lynch her anyway since she was poisoned?
I do wish I had the time to look over Moley's early posts on other Days to see if there was any seeming secret communications.
Crap, in re-reading this, I'm overwhelmed by how paranoid it seems. I know I'm trying to cram what happened to fit my suspcions of Pollux and Moley.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Nov 10, 2011 13:38:14 GMT -5
@Pollux, I am not saying that I going to vote for you. I have to think about everyone that is NOT confirmed and right now that is everyone. I do find Inner to be most suspicious with his lack of playing and non voting. The thing is that I can not just throw my vote on someone willy nilly. The fact the Inner has not posted at all this Day is very anti-town.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 10, 2011 13:48:15 GMT -5
Can't see the game page anymore. Someone must have been cussing. But I can still read along in the most recent posts page. My bad. Inner is not escape suspicion, For me, he's in the circle of potential Scum with you and Moley. And with the thought that he may very well be poisoned, my desire to lynch him has dimisnished. I'm still concerned about the back and forth between you and Moley on day 5, especially regarding the fact that Moley may have investigated Lightfoot. It's easy for me to give you my side of that exchange. You see, Moley called out me and Bill specifically, by name, to vote with him on Day Five. And he did it twice. I thought he may have been soft-claiming Detective, saying he knew Bill and I were town and encouraging us to vote with him. That's why I asked if he knew Lightfoot was 100% scum, i.e. was he the detective and had he investigated Lightfoot. He replied to that with no, he hadn't investigated him. Then later when Bill came out as the poisoner, the entire thought of Moley soft-claiming/being the Detective went out the window. @ Pollux, I am not saying that I going to vote for you. I have to think about everyone that is NOT confirmed and right now that is everyone. I do find Inner to be most suspicious with his lack of playing and non voting. The thing is that I can not just throw my vote on someone willy nilly. The fact the Inner has not posted at all this Day is very anti-town. That's what's sending up huge flags right now. With getting two scum yesterDay and having the supposed poisoner gone toDay, we as town still have the possibility of salvaging this. It should be all hands on deck, and the fact that Inner isn't even chiming in a little makes me think he's trying to let townspeople crossfire without getting his hands dirty.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Nov 10, 2011 14:49:30 GMT -5
I agree Inner is not helping town at all. So...
Vote Inner Stickler
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Post by special on Nov 10, 2011 14:56:37 GMT -5
I agree Inner is not helping town at all. So... Vote Inner SticklerI can understand lynching inner. I realize that I've been horribly wrong throughout this game. But I really think we're best served lynching Pollux. In any case, I'll be happy just to move the game closer to the end. Maybe well get lucky and hit a lurking scum. And even if he's town, as long as bill poisoned moley ( and I don't trust a 3rd party bill). We'll still be alive toMorrow.
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Post by special on Nov 10, 2011 14:58:46 GMT -5
Unvote: moley
Vote Inner Stickler
Posting from my phone is a pain. I hope I got this right
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 10, 2011 15:36:43 GMT -5
In Ed's words, Hmmmmm.
Not sure I'm ready to bring out the hangman's rope on Inner because he happens to have dropped his laptop out of the window or something.
Paranoia, has there been any word from Inner Stickler since the start of Day Six?
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 10, 2011 15:58:18 GMT -5
His profile says he was last here yesterday.
Vote: Inner Stickler
In case of tie shenanigans, since I'm still not 100% sure who of Moley/Ed is scum.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 10, 2011 16:58:38 GMT -5
His profile says he was last here yesterday. Yeah, and my profile logs me in any time somebody uses my computer and opens a browser window. I thought that if there were two scum left, they'd probably turn out to be Ed and Inner. So I don't know what to make of Ed's vote here. I guess if you're going to "bus" your absent partner, you'd want to do it early. The tie situation doesn't matter any more, that's certain. I just hate unvoting someone I think IS scum for someone I think MAY be.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 10, 2011 17:01:17 GMT -5
Re-reading Inner...
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 10, 2011 17:27:19 GMT -5
...Well that was quick.
So on the Inner side we have... his lack of activity, and the fact that he was the first Scathach votor on Day One, plus the circular logic he used to defend his reasoning, and his lack of Peeker vote yesterday. And that's... pretty much it, actually. On the basis of that, could he be scum? Absolutely. Is he scum? Yes, if there are two scum left, which everyone seems to be taking for granted right now. If, on the other hand, there's one scum and a third party, or some similar combination... well, Inner feels like an easy lynch.
And on the Bill side we have... the crap case on Ginger that I pointed out on Day Two, his continued smudges on me, his continued smudges on Pollux, the fact that he didn't vote on Day Three when one more Tex vote would've gotten her lynched and he'd previously called her tactics into question, the fact that Peeker as-good-as gave both of them away when I suggested that Ginger target one of them, the fact that he was the only other active player to not vote Peek yesterday despite having previously suggested suspicion of him, and much, much more.
Ok, here's how I look at this. Ed is scum. He could be bussing. But if it's 4 vs 2 then the second of the "2" is Ed. So I'm risking absolutely nothing by keeping my vote where it is.
If I'm dying tonight anyway, I want to be make damn certain that my vote's on the scummiest player if I have that option.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 10, 2011 17:46:36 GMT -5
On the Ed side, even. (Paragraph 3.)
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Nov 10, 2011 21:06:15 GMT -5
chill Pollux.
first of all, trying to catch scum in a fake claim slip is a valid method. scum have slipped in the past and they will again so a defense of 'i wouldn't be stupid to do that' doesn't really mean anything.
second, i wanted to see how you and the others would respond to my observation and vote. would anyone agree? would anyone get behind my vote? seems no one has.
how about your reaction? yours is what is most interesting. you became very aggressive. you started calling people out. we're all lazy except you, i guess. seems over the top. you also say how i'm going to lose it for town. really? one vote? it's not like it's the deciding vote. your reaction is puzzling.
i'll check the other posts and mull this over. i won't necessarily be swayed by your or any one else's activity or towniness. scum have done that before. it killed town in the Dope recently.
by the way, while it's not a bad thing to be cautious, i'd like to know why people think there are two scum left? 5 scum plus a 3rd party killer seems a lot for town to deal with.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 10, 2011 21:35:34 GMT -5
first of all, trying to catch scum in a fake claim slip is a valid method. scum have slipped in the past and they will again so a defense of 'i wouldn't be stupid to do that' doesn't really mean anything. second, i wanted to see how you and the others would respond to my observation and vote. would anyone agree? would anyone get behind my vote? seems no one has. how about your reaction? yours is what is most interesting. you became very aggressive. you started calling people out. we're all lazy except you, i guess. seems over the top. you also say how i'm going to lose it for town. really? one vote? it's not like it's the deciding vote. your reaction is puzzling. My reaction isn't puzzling. If there are two scum, one misplaced vote gives them the advantage. I suppose the looming possibility of Bill poisoning one of them might keep them from going balls out, but it still worries me. Especially since your vote really, really looked like a drive-by. And no offense, but you did the same thing with your vote on Lightfoot on Day 5: you tend to come in and put your vote down with little to no information along with it. To me, it looked like you were ignoring everything else that was being discussed and zeroing in on a misspelling in my role, as if it was the most important thing to be basing a vote on. And swoopy, drive-by votes bother me, especially late game. But you obviously had more thought behind why you voted me, so I retract some of my annoyance. Not all of it, though. I can be stubborn. Also, as a note, one of the reasons I'm on edge is I'm remembering the end of the Super Smash Brothers mafia game where at the last minute Moley and someone (I don't remember exactly) changed their votes and lynched a townsperson to secure the scum win. Maybe I'm a little paranoid, too. by the way, while it's not a bad thing to be cautious, i'd like to know why people think there are two scum left? 5 scum plus a 3rd party killer seems a lot for town to deal with. There could be only 1 scum left, but a traitor is usually considered a half-scum instead of a whole scum. Traitors, most of the time, cannot talk with their scum compatriots, which puts them at a disadvantage. And Lightfoot also was a roleblocker, so not being able to coordinate her powers with the majority scum group was another disadvantage. However, since you brought it up I'll crunch the numbers using that old balancing sheet that I think NAF posted a long time ago, if I can find it.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 10, 2011 22:00:04 GMT -5
It was actually JSexton, but NAF reposted it I guess. Anyway.
I put the numbers together, and with 7 vanilla, a tracker, a one-shot confirming vig, a doc, a situational vig, and two masons, the town total is 21.
The scum side was a little harder since two of the roles are nonstandard, but taking into account the suggest scoring for regular scum roles + adding the third-party SK poisoner, that comes out to 19.5.
That's 17, the remaining four are myself, Ed, Moley, and Inner.
If we postulate that Ed and Moley are both telling the truth as vanilla, that brings the town count up to 23. Supposing Inner as a regular mafia goon brings the scum total to 24. A Scotsman role isn't specified in JSexton's setup, but it'd probably be a 2ish so I guess it actually works out more likely that there's only one scum left. Huh.
I mean, I still think we should play like we're at lynch or lose because this is entirely meta, and only one person's way of balancing a game. But yeah. Maybe we're not as bad off as I thought.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Nov 11, 2011 9:57:29 GMT -5
So no word from Inner... I really hope he is SCUM and that RL didn't just get in the way.
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Post by JustBeingGinger on Nov 11, 2011 11:33:39 GMT -5
My concern would be, would scum just give up that easy, more so Inner?
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 11, 2011 13:21:51 GMT -5
Not sure. I mean, if there is only one scum left, going from three to one in one Day when you were close to winning, that's got to be a hit to morale.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Nov 11, 2011 15:58:00 GMT -5
Not sure. I mean, if there is only one scum left, going from three to one in one Day when you were close to winning, that's got to be a hit to morale. Here's the thing: I'm going back and forth as to whether there are actually two scum, or whether there's one scum and some kind of "survivor" role, which I guess would be you. Either way you're sitting pretty. If you're town, your only instant-loss scenario right now is if both Ed and myself are scum. All I can say on that score is if I were in your shoes, I know what I would be thinking! Weirdly, I think it would be best for the town if Bill did kill me. If Inner flips scum and the game doesn't end then I see myself as a big fat mislynch waiting to happen. It's better we go into the final round with one obvious scum and a confirmed townie or two.
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Post by Paranoia on Nov 11, 2011 17:28:58 GMT -5
Hey guys I recieved a message from silver jan.
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