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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 2:43:39 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 14, 2013 2:43:39 GMT -5
Pollux (3): Laurie (10), Texcat (23), Crys (27) Red Skeezix (2): Wombat (9), MHaye (25) MHaye (2): Red (16), Patricia (28)
The countdown has started, EOD will be 1/14 at 4:51 PM MST. I won't be on line, but the offboards will open at that time and I'll get the Night thread up shortly after midnight.
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 10:26:52 GMT -5
Post by wombat99 on Jan 14, 2013 10:26:52 GMT -5
Unvote: Red Skeezix
Vote: MHaye
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Post by crys on Jan 14, 2013 11:12:29 GMT -5
Vote MHayeCrys - LE is working for a E win so they are not going to claim we have to find them - but first we need to go after CE The only team that matters to le is cg. Le cant win if cg lives. Just like lg cant win if ce lives. Lg and le can win together if lg decided to go that way to shrink the space ce can hide in Sent from my DROID RAZR using proboards
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 13:35:31 GMT -5
Post by wombat99 on Jan 14, 2013 13:35:31 GMT -5
There is a pretty good chance that the LE vig has lost their vote. Gnarly has posted, but not voted yet. Pollux hasn't voted, but he hasn't posted either.
If either one of them doesn't place a valid vote, there's your LE vig.
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 14:41:24 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 14, 2013 14:41:24 GMT -5
There is a pretty good chance that the LE vig has lost their vote. Sorry to break this to you, but the LE Vig still has their vote. This can be determined from publically available information. Night 1: Two kills - Meeko (LG) and Astral Rejection (LE). If Meeko was killed by the LE Vig, they'd have lost their vote for Day 2. Of the twenty-two players alive at the Dawn of Day 2, 18 had a vote at the end of that Day. Of the four who did not, ATPG was identified as CE and Ulla as LG. The remaining pair were Inner Stickler Texcat and Drain Bead. Both of those players finished Day 3 with valid votes, so no-one lost their vote Night 1. Night 2: Chucara (LG), Colby (CG) and guiri (LG) died. Colby had openly claimed CG, so the odds are that he was shot by the LE Vig, with no loss of vote. We know that Mahaloth shot guiri, so Chucara was probably taken down with the CE group kill. Night 3: DizzyMrsLizzy (LG). I assume killed by CE. She'd claimed Cop after all. Night 4: Ginger (LG). Night 5: Hockey Monkey (LG) and peeker (CG). I suppose Ginger could have been killed by the LE Vig, but that's silly - at that point Mahaloth, peeker and Drain Bead were all exposed as CG. They had three safe shots. You're not going to find the LE Vig that easily.
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 14:55:57 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 14, 2013 14:55:57 GMT -5
Who am I suspicious of?
There are eleven living players, not all of whom are active.
We know that Drain Bead, Mahaloth and patricia are the living CG team. Unfortunately, the chance of their winning, whoever they ally with, is low. No, lower. Miniscule, in fact. They have one active player, and a cheerleader, versus three active players one of which is a Vig with CG in their sights. The best patricia can do is decide whether LG or CE win, and at the moment she's backing CE. (If Pollux is LE they have a fighting chance.)
There are only two people we can be sure are not LE - Wombat and I. This is because we both placed votes on Suburban Plankton on Day 1.
My view on Red Skeezix shifted slightly while I was working the vote data; I came to the conclusion that he was more likely LE than CE. That being the case, I no longer want to lynch him Today.
Unvote: Red Skeezix.
There's about four hours remaining. I have to do a couple of chores, but I'll be back soon-ish.
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 16:49:45 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 14, 2013 16:49:45 GMT -5
Pollux (3): Laurie (10), Texcat (23), Crys (27) MHaye (3): Red (16), Patricia (28), Wombat (31)
Last vote count for the Day, I'm off to bed. Prox 2 hours to EOD, no votes will be counted after 4:51p MST.
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 18:32:18 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 14, 2013 18:32:18 GMT -5
Vote: Pollux Oil
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 18:39:18 GMT -5
Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 14, 2013 18:39:18 GMT -5
i guess it's Pollux. i'm fine with that.
Vote: Pollux Oil
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 18:47:47 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 14, 2013 18:47:47 GMT -5
Some commentary on the above.
I've been digging through votes to see if there is anything worthwhile to be extracted. Pollux's vote record stands out, because it is impossible for him to be LE.
There are 11 players alive. If we assume Pollux is LE, which of the 10 could be a team-mate?
There are three known CG - Drain Bead, Mahaloth and patricia. They are not LE.
Wombat99 and I successfully voted for Suburban Plankton on Day 1. Neither of us are LE.
Crys, Laurien and Texcat all have votes on Pollux Today. That leaves Pollux and Gnarliecharlie. Red, however, had a vote on Pollux on Day 4. So there is only Gnarly.
Since I still blieve there are three LE players surviving, Pollux isn't LE - so he's LG or CE.
I know I'm LG, but don't know the same about hPollux. Hence I vote for him.
Yes this is also motivated by self-preservation, but that's a null tell.
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 19:39:13 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Jan 14, 2013 19:39:13 GMT -5
What's really scary is if there is a 4th CG player as Patricia seemed to suggest. Balance would then suggest that there are 4 LE players as well. Which leaves 3 others?
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 19:58:59 GMT -5
Post by lauriern on Jan 14, 2013 19:58:59 GMT -5
FOS on M.Haye and GC for their last minute votes 7 minutes apart from each other 21 minutes before EOD (if I have my timezones correct). I wish I could change my vote to M. Haye, but I think it's too late (Not that my 1 vote would be enough right now anyway)
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 20:00:34 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 14, 2013 20:00:34 GMT -5
What's really scary is if there is a 4th CG player as Patricia seemed to suggest. Balance would then suggest that there are 4 LE players as well. Which leaves 3 others? There is not. Another product of my vote checking shows that everyone now alive has voted for, or been voted for, by one or more of the CG team. You'll have to search out confirmatory votecounts yourself - it's 1am here and I'm off to bed.
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Day Six
Jan 14, 2013 22:54:22 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Jan 14, 2013 22:54:22 GMT -5
Odd, I actually thought Patricia was telling the truth for once, but it looks like you are correct.
Do you have a good read on the LE team as well?
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Day Six
Jan 15, 2013 4:35:13 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Jan 15, 2013 4:35:13 GMT -5
Night Six inna second.
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