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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 28, 2013 18:03:07 GMT -5
I have a plan for toNight's bidding...
There are 8 players and 8 powers to bid for. So we divvy them up and and allocate each power to a specific player. We each only bid for that one power. That way, we win all the bids at no cost and no risk.
But what's to stop the one remaining Scum from bidding for the other powers? Well, if that happens, then those powers will go for a non zero amount. Which tells us that those playes are Town! So every other bid Scum makes just confirms another Town player.
This looks fairly foolproof. Does anyone see any fatal flaws? Of course, it requires that we actually agree to do it - if a Townie decides to bid anyway, because they want to play their own way, then that may end up handing the game to Scum. But being down to just one Scum, we now have this unusual opportunity to game the bidding system.
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Post by Mahaloth on Dec 28, 2013 18:19:19 GMT -5
I'm up for the idea, but how do we assign the powers we bid for? Randomly?
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Post by Silver Jan on Dec 28, 2013 18:24:39 GMT -5
@ All, since it appears that Gnarly and Swammer won 5 or possibly 6 of the 8 available actions, could you indicate which of the runner-up bids was yours? I didn't come close to winning any of the bids. Investigate 23 (Meeko) Track 20 (Bill) Watch 23 Obfuscate 23 Kill 35 (SisterCoyote) Protect 21 Block 16 Charge 13 I bid 16 for Block, so there was just one bid that was the same or higher. I also bid for everything else (except Kill and Obfuscate) but did not come close to winning any of them (those prices are way too high - why are we fighting each other so much to win them?) Since so few have been claimed, it seems that either gnarly or swammer won lots of them, or the one remaining Scum won lots and is keeping quiet. Heck, perhaps something like this: Scum decided to sacrifice one of their number, to win (nearly) all the bids and die for it. This will give them 2 Scum kills and the other can get Town cred by claiming to have killed Scum. Although that still does not explain why there were only 2 deaths last Night I don't get you! Why should there be more than 2 Deaths, I have read and read and still don't know, please spell it out (no bunnies)
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Day Three
Dec 28, 2013 18:33:02 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 28, 2013 18:33:02 GMT -5
Scum have a Night kill.
Someone won the bid for an extra kill.
Apparently, scum killed Swammer and the winner of the bid killed Gnarly.
However, if we think that SisterCoyote is scum, she certainly didn't kill Gnarly so Gnarly must have died by some other means - such as dying from bidding too much.
And if she didn't kill Gnarly, what happened to the extra kill? Who won it and on whom was it used, there's a missing body - possibly a protection or a block prevented a third kill.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 28, 2013 18:47:21 GMT -5
I'm up for the idea, but how do we assign the powers we bid for? Randomly? Not completely randomly. For example, Kill needs to go to a likely Town. Although one minor thing: someone will be lynched toDay, so there will be only 7 players bidding. So someone will be allocated 2 powers (probably the Charge power, as it's pretty useless on its own). And everyone, please give your thoughts on this plan. The Night 2 plan was on the table for a few days (including all of Night 2) without much discussion. And it seems that another Townie still fought for the Kill. So please discuss it this time.
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Day Three
Dec 28, 2013 19:12:03 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 28, 2013 19:12:03 GMT -5
So please discuss it this time. So, the suggestion is for everyone (almost) to place a single bid on a single power. Since there are no other bids, each bidder is certain to win the power at no risk. If we find that the price paid is more than zero, either someone didn't get the memo or scum interfered in the bidding process, winning the power or upping the price. Since scum couldn't bid twice for the same power, this would automatically clear the original bidder. It seems to make sense. Obviously it may be a challenge to get players to agree to the scheme, then submit a single valid bid, and then use the powers wisely but the main downfall will be the fact that scum would be unlikely to interfere much, if at all. If assigned another power, they just bid on kill, possibly also investigate, and kill whoever was assigned to bid on kill and investigate. We'd have two confirmed but dead townies.
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Day Three
Dec 28, 2013 19:16:00 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 28, 2013 19:16:00 GMT -5
NETA, we could leverage protect, track and watch powers to prevent a double kill and possibly find the last scum.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Dec 28, 2013 19:35:28 GMT -5
Meeko, what did your investigation tell you? Sure, no problem.; You win the auction for investigate and pay 23. gnarlycharlie is Scum.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 28, 2013 19:38:50 GMT -5
NETA, we could leverage protect, track and watch powers to prevent a double kill and possibly find the last scum. Yes, Scum will not mind confirming someone that they are going to kill. However, coordinating the protect and investigative roles stands a good chance of finding the last Scum Note also the Block - if we get that right, we can save a kill or two. And identify the last Scum.
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Dec 28, 2013 22:50:15 GMT -5
I hadn't said so at that point, had I? But why deceive us at all?
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Post by Mahaloth on Dec 28, 2013 22:54:30 GMT -5
I think Meeko did win the investigate bid, but did so to prevent anyone else investigating him. Who he really investigated I have no idea, but he easily threw out the gnarly scum result since we all just learned that.
He's been oddly quiet and didn't exactly show up to tell us his result.
Vote Meeko
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Meeko
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Post by Meeko on Dec 29, 2013 0:24:16 GMT -5
I think Meeko did win the investigate bid, but did so to prevent anyone else investigating him. Who he really investigated I have no idea, but he easily threw out the gnarly scum result since we all just learned that. He's been oddly quiet and didn't exactly show up to tell us his result. Vote MeekoRight, because I didn't just get back from spending time with my family. Assume I'm telling the truth, because I am. I didn't see the point in revealing my result, because gnarly died. I wonder who asked about results in the first place. Oh, that's right. You sir, are an opportunist. I guess I'm damned if I do, and damned if I don't, on next to everything here, eh Maha? Did you have any thoughts of SisC while you are at it? Vote: Mahaloth
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Post by Silver Jan on Dec 29, 2013 3:13:26 GMT -5
Scum have a Night kill. Someone won the bid for an extra kill. Apparently, scum killed Swammer and the winner of the bid killed Gnarly. However, if we think that SisterCoyote is scum, she certainly didn't kill Gnarly so Gnarly must have died by some other means - such as dying from bidding too much. And if she didn't kill Gnarly, what happened to the extra kill? Who won it and on whom was it used, there's a missing body - possibly a protection or a block prevented a third kill. I get that but if gnarly won the killing bid and died from bidding too much he couldn't have used the power to kill anyone and SisC could still take the credit for it if she is scum. That all ties up nicely in my head.
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Day Three
Dec 29, 2013 3:37:17 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 29, 2013 3:37:17 GMT -5
I get that but if gnarly won the killing bid and died from bidding too much he couldn't have used the power to kill anyone and SisC could still take the credit for it if she is scum. That all ties up nicely in my head. The rules say: "The use of the power is not affected by the winner's death, and the death cannot be prevented by any means." so Gnarly could have used the kill, even if he died from bidding too much.
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Post by Mahaloth on Dec 29, 2013 20:35:44 GMT -5
I think Meeko did win the investigate bid, but did so to prevent anyone else investigating him. Who he really investigated I have no idea, but he easily threw out the gnarly scum result since we all just learned that. He's been oddly quiet and didn't exactly show up to tell us his result. Vote Meeko1. Right, because I didn't just get back from spending time with my family. 2. Assume I'm telling the truth, because I am. 3. I didn't see the point in revealing my result, because gnarly died. 4. I wonder who asked about results in the first place. Oh, that's right. 5. You sir, are an opportunist. I guess I'm damned if I do, and damned if I don't, on next to everything here, eh Maha? 6. Did you have any thoughts of SisC while you are at it? Vote: MahalothI've added numbers to Meeko's points so I can answer them clearly. 1. We all did. Anyway, it's cool. 2. I am not assuming anyone is telling the truth, including you. 3. Still, it seems like you would have come out with it. 4. :raises hand: I asked about results. Is that bad? I don't get your point in mentioning this. 5. I guess I am an opportunist. I took the opportunity to read what you said and then vote after thinking about it and thinking you are scum. 6. SisC thoughts. I actually think Town, why?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 6:31:58 GMT -5
Silverjan, I don't understand. This is what I said yesterDay, about coordinating the bidding for some powers: Given how the bidding went, I suspect that Scum decided to basically not bid (or bid very low) to minimise the risk of a Night kill. Note that the latest the game can reasonably last is Day 5, so that leaves little time to get 3 Scum lynches. A Scum dying at Night hurts their team very badly, so instead they can just sit back and let Town kill themselves off. But we are now in a better position to coordinate our bids. Given how big the bids were, I think it is likely that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami are Town. And guiri too, probably. So for the 3 Scum items, I suggest that we have just one person bid on them. That way Town will not be fighting each other for them and running up the price. If Scum want them, they will have to pay. And if they decide to take the "no bid, no risk" approach then Town will get them for nothing. So I suggest that BillMc, Mahaloth and swammerdami each bid for one of Obfuscate, Kill and Block, and that no-one else bid for these. These players will need to agree in this thread who is bidding for what, so Scum will also know that. But they will not know the bid amounts. For the other items, I suggest that no-one get too carried away trying to win them. So does anyone see any fatal problems with this plan? Note that we could not coordinate on Day 1, as we had no idea about who was Town. But now I am comfortable with those 3 players. And if anyone thinks that I am trying to remove the risk to myself by having others make the big bids, then I am happy to be the bidder for one of them. This was your response: gnarly, I didn't mean to be mean, I should have said that you defend yourself vigorously and that frightens the hell out of me everytime I vote for you. I think trying to make a co-ordinated bid on some powers would be a good idea, Captain Klutz has an idea that is as good as any I have heard. If it doesn't work then we don't have to do it again. However, last Night you bid for Obfuscate, even though swammerdami had already offered to do so. How does this square up with your response? And what do you think of my latest plan?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 6:48:36 GMT -5
I don't know why Captain klutz thought there should be another kill though, Swammer was killed. Please explain! There were 2 possibilities last Night: 1. Scum killed swammer, someone won the Kill and used it on gnarly, and there were no deaths due to bids 2. Gnarly won the Kill and died for his bid. So Scum had 2 kills last Night, in which case one of them was blocked (Yes, there are other possibilities as well, but those 2 are the most likely) If Sister Coyote is Scum and is now falsely claiming to have killed gnarly (case 2), then that leaves one Scum kill unaccounted for. However, both Protect and Block have not been claimed, so I'm puzzled Just quoting myself to add another thought: For Sister Coyote to be Scum, that means that the other Scum kill was blocked last Night. It seems that Scum won Block, and they would not have used it to block themselves. So that means that swammerdami won Protect and successfully guessed the Scum target. The alternative, where Sister Coyote is Town and killed gnarly, requires that no-one died as a result of winning a bid. This has a fairly low probability of 14%. Is that more likely, or less likely, than swammer outguessing Scum?
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 6:53:41 GMT -5
My 2 main suspects are Meeko and Sister Coyote (curiously, last Night they both claimed action against the dead Scum gnarlycharlie)
For now I will Vote Sister Coyote
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Day Three
Dec 30, 2013 6:55:59 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 30, 2013 6:55:59 GMT -5
It's the way she claimed, the fact that she bid on kill despite the plans, her choice of target, and the quantity she bid that makes me very suspicious of SisterC. She hasn't returned to respond yet but I'm happy with my vote. Yes, there appears to be a missing kills
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Post by BillMc on Dec 30, 2013 7:27:25 GMT -5
So either the scum won a lot of the bids; or swammeri did. a) swammeri kills gnarly; scum kills swammeri b) sisc kills gnarly; scum kills swammeri c) a or b happens, and swammeri also dies from over bidding d) a or b happens, swammeri dies from overbidding, scum kill is blocked, or target protected All are plausible, tho (d) seems unlikely Swammeri seems the logical target for the scum kill, as he was pretty much confirmed by his actions and the observations from N1. And given it is D3 today, it would be the usual time for Gnarly to roll out the "Bill is still alive" routine as he has done in the last few games. I do find SisC's lack of clarity in her posts very disturbing. I also bid for everything else (except Kill and Obfuscate) but did not come close to winning any of them (those prices are way too high - why are we fighting each other so much to win them?) I could read this as scum asking town to keep the bids low to make it easy for them to win with little risk. So we have 1 scum left, and 7 town; the remaining scum can really only afford to bid low. Now we do want to avoid three deaths, and the only way to guarantee that is for town to win kill with a bid of 100, and for the winner to target themselves; indeed for good measure said person could also bid 100 on block and obfuscate and also target themselves, depriving scum of all offensive powers.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Dec 30, 2013 8:08:57 GMT -5
I also bid for everything else (except Kill and Obfuscate) but did not come close to winning any of them (those prices are way too high - why are we fighting each other so much to win them?) I could read this as scum asking town to keep the bids low to make it easy for them to win with little risk. So we have 1 scum left, and 7 town; the remaining scum can really only afford to bid low. Now we do want to avoid three deaths, and the only way to guarantee that is for town to win kill with a bid of 100, and for the winner to target themselves; indeed for good measure said person could also bid 100 on block and obfuscate and also target themselves, depriving scum of all offensive powers. Town competing with each other for powers just increases the price. That's why I suggested the plan where we divvy up the powers so that only one person bids for each power. BillMc, what do you think of this plan? That's an interesting idea for depriving Scum of the offensive powers. A downside is that it guarantees 2 Town deaths. Also, it doesn't rule out additional deaths as others can still die due to bids. If someone decides to do this, please let us know! We sure as heck don't want 2 people doing this.
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Post by BillMc on Dec 30, 2013 11:07:30 GMT -5
Town competing with each other for powers just increases the price. That's why I suggested the plan where we divvy up the powers so that only one person bids for each power. BillMc, what do you think of this plan? That's an interesting idea for depriving Scum of the offensive powers. A downside is that it guarantees 2 Town deaths. Also, it doesn't rule out additional deaths as others can still die due to bids. If someone decides to do this, please let us know! We sure as heck don't want 2 people doing this. I disagree that it "increases the price" - folk are free to bid whatever they want, including not bidding. Dividing up the powers makes it much easier for the remaining scum to plan how to play, and to game the split. So scum know that there is a single bidder and it will be a low bid - easy for them to just bid a bit higher and take the powers -- so much like today - we end up with few results However, wins kill still has to kill -- so either it is a 6 in 7 chance of hitting town if a townie is selected; or a 7 in 7 if the scum player is allocated kill.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 11:26:43 GMT -5
@ SisterCoyote, How much did you bid to kill Gnarly? What made you choose to kill him? Did you notice the conversation in the D2 thread about only Swammer, Mahaloth and Bill bidding for kill/block/obfuscate with Mahaloth choosing to kill? - I choose, at this point, not to reveal how much I bid, as I feel that would be anti-Town play. Scum already know they had to go higher than 35 to win the bid.
- I am Town, I was shooting for Scum, and I had one of those "Gnarly's play isn't sitting right with me but I can't quite articulate why" gut feelings. I tried to kill him on Night One, too, but I was outbid.
- Of course I noticed that conversation. But I'm not in the habit of letting other players dictate my choices. Why should I, as Town, trust any of them? Easy enough for Scum Bill to bus a teammate (nb: I don't think Bill is Scum at this point). Equally relevant, why shouldn't I bid for the chance to shoot at someone I suspect is Scum? We don't know where Mahaloth would have pointed his gun, after all, nor should we
I have other things to respond to but I wanted to get this out there first off.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 11:40:55 GMT -5
I hadn't said so at that point, had I? Uh? I read this as you saying you did not kill gnarly. I don't know why you are being so obtuse in this game - or have you just turned into the grinch for xmas? I always turn into the grinch for Xmas. But my house was overrun by family and my work was overrun by gremlins, so I didn't have as much time as I'd hoped to pay attention to the first two days of the game. Sorry. I was not going to say anything about killing Gnarly to see if anyone else would take credit for it. However, when guiri asked a direct question, I chose to give a direct answer. Because, frankly, I was too tired to try and obfuscate. You need to explain your motives a bit more about why you didn't come right out and say you killed gnarly but didn't wait long enough for someone else to claim the kill so you could say "gotcha" See above. Also, because participation at that point was low and I figured I could give us something to talk about. (those prices are way too high - why are we fighting each other so much to win them?) I am bidding as I bid because even though I have an absolutely shit record as Town Vig, I don't want Scum to have the extra kill. Scum decided to sacrifice one of their number, to win (nearly) all the bids and die for it. This will give them 2 Scum kills and the other can get Town cred by claiming to have killed Scum. Although that still does not explain why there were only 2 deaths last Night I think you're hearing hoofbeats and assuming zebras. Also, regarding your plan: No. Right now, there is one Scum. By having everyone assume no one else will be bidding on, say, Kill, you're opening the field up for that single Scum to have two Night kills, plus block and any other power they wish to have. This strikes me as a Very Bad Idea. Particularly since, right now, said Scum is unlikely to bid on much of anything, given that there is only one of them and it would be rather foolish to run the risk of death even to drop Town's numbers. Better to let us kill ourselves. Which, by the way, is what we're doing if y'all lynch me. vote: CaptainKlutz
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Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 11:41:53 GMT -5
And I see Bill said what I was thinking about the good Captain's plan in a far more succinct manner.
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Day Three
Dec 30, 2013 12:07:44 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 30, 2013 12:07:44 GMT -5
The point of Klutz' plan is to entice that sole remaining scum to bid for powers that they were not destined to bid for - I don't see why that's bad. If everyone else plays along with the plan, the scum would be confirming all town players who should have won a bid at 0 risk. For example, if I'm assigned to bid on "kill" and the price paid for that power is not 0, I'm fully confirmed as I cannot bid for the same power twice so the only person who should have bid is the scum. Sure, they'd gain an extra kill but we still have numbers and unless they bid on protect, watch, track and block (confirming four other players), we'd have a chance of preventing the extra kill and discovering the last scum. My concern about the plan is that the scum wouldn't bid on anything but that still guarantees almost every power remains in town hands.
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Day Three
Dec 30, 2013 12:08:37 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 30, 2013 12:08:37 GMT -5
The point of Klutz' plan is to entice that sole remaining scum to bid for powers that they were not destined to bid for - I don't see why that's bad. If everyone else plays along with the plan, the scum would be confirming all town players who should have won a bid at 0 risk. For example, if I'm assigned to bid on "kill" and the price paid for that power is not 0, I'm fully confirmed as I cannot bid for the same power twice so the only person who should have bid is the scum. Sure, they'd gain an extra kill but we still have numbers and unless they bid on protect, watch, track and block (confirming four other players), we'd have a chance of preventing the extra kill and discovering the last scum. My concern about the plan is that the scum wouldn't bid on anything but that still guarantees almost every power remains in town hands.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 12:27:47 GMT -5
The point of Klutz' plan is to entice that sole remaining scum to bid for powers that they were not destined to bid for - I don't see why that's bad. If everyone else plays along with the plan, the scum would be confirming all town players who should have won a bid at 0 risk. For example, if I'm assigned to bid on "kill" and the price paid for that power is not 0, I'm fully confirmed as I cannot bid for the same power twice so the only person who should have bid is the scum. Sure, they'd gain an extra kill but we still have numbers and unless they bid on protect, watch, track and block (confirming four other players), we'd have a chance of preventing the extra kill and discovering the last scum. My concern about the plan is that the scum wouldn't bid on anything but that still guarantees almost every power remains in town hands. That's a huge if there in your second sentence.
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Day Three
Dec 30, 2013 12:39:09 GMT -5
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Post by guiri on Dec 30, 2013 12:39:09 GMT -5
Well if your only concern is that players won't go along with it, let's discuss that and see how much support there is before dismissing the entire plan.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Dec 30, 2013 15:05:05 GMT -5
That is hardly my only concern.
I don't like the emphasis on figuring out or knowing what people bid, for one thing. Something -- and it's not Lynch the Loud -- bothered me about Captain's plan from yesterday, so I chose to ignore it. Likewise, something I can't quite put my finger on is bothering me about the current plan. Maybe it's just that it feels like Captain's trying to game the system rather than play the game.
That, and my usual reticence with having Town announce what they're going to do of a Night. Just lets Scum have that much more information that they don't need if Town's going to win.
That said: If we're going with this plan, and if I don't get lynched, I'll bid on Kill and request the person who bids on Block uses it on me. Of course, if the person assigned to bid on Block doesn't block me, all that will mean is that they think someone else is the likely Scum candidate. In fact, go with this plan and if the person blocks me and if there are no Kills tonight, well, that'll prove I'm Scum, right? (Or that the person protecting protected the right person. Or that Scum chose not to act, though that doesn't seem that wise a choice to me with the numbers the way they are. Or some other possibility I'm not seeing just at the moment.)
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