Day Five

[Santo Rugger]

zuma said:

I think you should tell us who you tested and what the result was, sinjin. Being able to clear townies shrinks the group that scum have to hide in. Also, waiting for someone to claim and only then clearing them just results in letting the scum know what their role is.

If you keep quiet at this point, then wake up dead, we learn nothing.

In addition to what sinjin said, if nobody claims today that they were a Gatorade fountain in previous Nights, I'm going to assume everybody else she subjected to her ray of blue in the past didn't have a result. From now on, it's a Day by Day thing.

[Pollux Oil]

I think this entire situation gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "color me pissed."

Don't hurt me for that.

Anyway, I'm assuming, then, from his breadcrumbs, that Rugger took a whiz of a different color? Between Pleonast's breadcrumb and the purveyor of blue pee, I think our Governor's pretty much cleared out.

Unless, of course, this is a really, really, really elaborate scum hoax...but what scum in their right mind would make up a role hoax involving blue pee? Hopefully somebody other than Rugger's had some blue turn up in their system. Also, sinjin, does your role have a specific name, i.e. like NAF was the Creator? I don't know if there'd be a reason you wouldn't want to share it or something.

[Santo Rugger]

atarus said:

<snip>
Unless, of course, this is a really, really, really elaborate scum hoax...but what scum in their right mind would make up a role hoax involving blue pee? Hopefully somebody other than Rugger's had some blue turn up in their system. Also, sinjin, does your role have a specific name, i.e. like NAF was the Creator? I don't know if there'd be a reason you wouldn't want to share it or something.

I thought of this, too. Fortunately, the scum are going to need to remove me from my position at Night sooner rather than later now, because 99.9% of the town's* WiFoM can be drank. Or not drank, or whatever you do when you know where the poison is. They know sinjin is telling the truth, since she's not one of them. Once one of us dies, you'll know the other wasn't part of an elaborate plot. Unfortunately, it looks like that's going to happen sooner, rather than later.

On the bright side, that means we have 3 basically confirmed now, and at least 2 other Masons (or else they would have claimed so that atarus wouldn't die and leave it open for a one vs. one claim-off. To me, this means we have at least 5 confirmable players right now, out of 15. Assuming we have a doc (based on last night's results), that means they can WiFoM with the scum at Night, plus it gives us 6 people that the scum have to kill at night. That puts our lynchable pool at 9, and assuming 5 scum, giving us a LOT more breathing room than I originally thought.

We can totally do this guys!

[zuma]

I read sinjin's role-claim a bit too quickly... specifically that she herself does not get results. Her plan sounds like a good one.

[RoOsh]

I just finished all my exams, and I'm a bit brain dead, but I've got some thoughts now. Well, I've HAD thoughts, but I've been busy studying for exams so i didn't get to post them, otherwise I'd have posted them at night:

1. "Roosh: What is your opinion of episodeofblonde?" -Got it, I'll get around to that within the next 24-36 hours.

2. I'm quite amused actually at the Blue Pee idea. Kudos storyteller for that. And I'm also kinda psyched. We've got a mason, we've got a piss collector, and we've got a nearly confirmed (in my book) Governor. The mason's got buddies, so that'll be nice. And I'm def. thinking the scum may have gotten lucky, but they're gonna be hitting a nice block of confirmed Townies soon, and hopefully they'll go quickly then.
That being said: I did have a question that struck me last night while i was studying, and I've wanted to ask Atarus: Can you CONFIRM 100% that your Masons' are clean? (Flashback to Gone in 60 Seconds: "the ladies are dirty"). It's a minor point... but it's one that struck me: Your mason group- can you confirm for sure that all of you are NOT scum (Mainly, could the nexus-9 be hidden in there?) Just a simple Yes or a No for confirmation and that's all I wanna know, because it's such a paranoid thought of bastard modding (to put a scum into a mason group... but it's always one I've wanted to do)....

Anyways, also another point:
2. This one I wondered about sharing, i figured i'd hold onto it until later, but then I was talking to Atarus off game, and he mentioned that there were 16 people alive, not 17 in the game. It suddenly struck me that I had been keeping track of people by my voting charts. But i would always be off by ONE. Because I kept forgetting that there would be a voter who gets lynched at the end of the day, so even if all 17 people voted, that doesn't mean 17 people live to see the end of the Day. : insert headsmack smiley here:
That being said, I might as well share some a thought with you all then sooner rather than later:

pygmyrugger said:

In other news, last night's no kill is very promising. To me, it means there is, in fact, a doctor type, or the Replicants went after a pro-town Replicant who was immune. I suspect the former.

I actually kinda suspect both equally. Not to add more WIFOM or anything, but, but... I have a really really strong feeling that there are 6 Replicants left in total. I don't know if they're all scum or if some are townie or what, but I just wanna say... 6 replicants left.
Just a hunch.

--So if there are 6 scum well... that gives us a magic number of 12. That's what we wanna avoid. There's what? 16 of us alive? That should give us 3 mislynches and then we're done. So it's gonna be down to the wire. Don't get complacent.... If not all are scum, well then we've got breathing room. But I don't like to take chances, and I'm gonna stay cautious.
And that's all I Really gotta say about that.
Oh, and I have no idea what I pee. I noticed nothing, just in case if you're wondering. But man, I WISH i peed blue. That'd be freaking sweet.

3. Also a HUGE FOS to Zuma2.0 for his post in #27. I was reading though the posts, and when I first saw that it just made me go "WHAT?!?! NO!" and that whole "If you keep quiet at this point, then wake up dead, we learn nothing." is a really odd thing to say AT the START of the Day....

I later read you said you missed that part of the roleclaim.... but even then, that just really strikes me as odd. Maybe it's because I didn't miss it, or maybe it's because it's nearly discussed for 1/3 of her role claim post... but still. That just REALLY doesn't' sit well with me at ALL, it was just a really terrible idea to try to force her to give out her data. You did this last time too with Drain, it's why I noticed it. You seem to REALLY like having all the information in front of you... and that's weirding me out, man. I don't know if that's your style, or if it's something more sinister, but its like totally the opposite of how I like to play, and so you're on my radar now for that.

sinjin said:

-snippred first paragraph-

The device we developed lookes like a gun (nice touch bastard mod). But it doesn't shoot bullets, it shoots nano-bots. The nano-bots are absorbed by the skin and cause side effects in humans: one of which is blue[/blue] urine. Replicants have no such side-effects. However, neither do somewhere around 50% of humans. And to make it even more diabolical I don't get the results directly.

4. I didn't see the fuck up. For recording purposes i guess. But I'm really really curious, as it's been a while since scum have fucked up, and we could use another break

5. I dunno, if I forgot anything, just remind me, and I'll get to it within the next few days.

[Death By Irony]

First of all, vote drain bead, same reason as yesterDay. (Namely, her vote for Pleonast and her "should I roleclaim?" post.)

Second, blue pee? This is weirdness on the level of the Chia Bingo Manager. But since sinjin and pygmy can confirm each other, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt for the time being and put them into the "potential Colony" column.

[Death By Irony]

Edit by way of Double Post: The post I was trying to link.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

The case against Klutz…

Day One #77 and Day One #83 – Don’t worry about the Gov role early in the game.

Day One #204 – Goes after confirmed Colonists zeriel and Pleo based on their respective grammar “slips”.

Day One #254 – Lays out lurking WIFOM, with the intent (imho) of trying to provide what cover he can for any lurking that he or his brethren might attempt.

Day One #247 – Looking back on what we know now, and realizing how accurate some portions of this post reads in hindsight, I suspect that he had some inside information that others did not have at that time. Also, combined with post #251, it seems awfully early to even try and hypothesize as to how many scum there are, let alone what roles they might hold. Doing so early smacks of trying to exploit and exacerbate the default confusion of the closed set up.

Day One #283 – Covers the bases to ensure that a role like Pleo’s would be lynched upon discovery, even if there was a possibility that the Colonists include a Colony-aligned replicant. Better safe than sorry, especially when the “safe” thing for the consensus to do would end up killing a Colonist.

Day One #377 – Vote for confirmed Colonist zeriel.

Day Two #94 – Lays out 4 cases, 3 of them against known Colonists: Pleo, zeriel, and Dio, and one of them against DBI, then votes for DBI. Possible instance of voting for fellow scum to secure town cred while smearing multiple townies, or it is an instance of an all-town smear. Note that his only post between placing his Day One and Day Two votes was Day Two #32, in which he does a post-by-post analysis of Kat v1, looking for reasons why she’d be targted for a Night kill. Refers to himself in the third person at the bottom of the post, which seems strange.

Day Two #126 – Chips away at Pleo’s claim.

Day Three #27 – More chipping away at Pleo’s claim, more laying the ground work to encourage unilateral replicant killing policy, regardless of possibility of the existence of a pro-Colonist replicant.

Day Three #88 – Another smear on zeriel (leveraging the analysis of atarus) while voting for DBI again. Consistent one-off voting for a fellow scum could very well add a few chits in to a scum’s town cred.

Day Three # 171 – Unvotes DBI and votes for Pleo.

Night Three # 40 – Doesn’t think we should rule out Pleo as a Night 1 vig, even though he left one vaguely possible crumb
of voting for Kat v1, when Pleo (arguably) could have done more without breaking the rules of his role.

Night Three # 45 – Nexus-9 discussion. With so much unknown information, Nexus-9 discussion would be an attractive environment for scum to try and stir up confusion. Of course the same circumstances also make it a logical topic of discussion of Colonists trying to puzzle it out (such as myself). While not the strongest of points against Klutz, it is still worth mentioning that I believe (and have posted as such) that the “conversed” in atarus’ claim is more likely to refer to the scum boards than to in-game conversations, yet Klutz devotes most of this post to the in-game interpretation, and only gives the scum boards a token mention with one sentence.

Night Three # 46 and #54 – WIFOM all the way, but here he advocates the interpretation that there is only one Nexus-9. When I read these, the paranoid part of my brain began to wonder if a scum would advocate a truth that they are aware of through perfect knowledge just in case it might cause the remaining players to distrust everything that he said while alive, and derail themselves by believing there are more Nexus-9s even though there is really only one…or he could be using it as a cred-building crumb to try and set up a false claim. This of course assumes that there is really only one Nexus-9, which is the hunch I’m currently carrying.

Day Four #68, #70, #73, #77, #108, #110, #116, – smears (and votes for) kassia for reasons that I do not believe hold much merit: being Pleo’s final vote and a level of knowledge about the game that is well within reason considering how talkative I’ve been at home since I started playing this game.

Day Four # 160, #162 – unvotes kassia and votes zeriel. Uses Day 1 analysis alone to back up his vote for zeriel. I have a hard time trusting much Day 1 analysis, especially when it is the only analysis in a case against someone this far into the game. Similar to the reasoning with my vote for drainbead on Day Four, I think Klutz tried extremely hard to exploit the circumstantial case against kassia due to Pleo’s analysis, votes, and confirmation as Colonist upon his unfortunite demise. But once it became apparent that consensus was not favoring a kassia lynch, there was no reason not to jump on the bandwagon to zap zeriel, the other Colonist whilte meat.

Night Four # 23 – defends against suspicion from episodeblonde with the notion that speculation about scum roles is healthy, which strikes me as a (very mild) "Why do you hate America?" that he tries to spin against her.

Night Four #26 - More Nexus-9 speculation.

Night Four #28 - takes a smear at me over my attempt to remind atarus and others that I too have thought and posted on the Nexus-9 issue.

Night Four # 40 - says that zeriel's death and Colonist confirmation caused him to do a major re-think. (The first thing that popped into my mind is that Idle Thoughts said something eerily similar in response to my monk claim in M5...right before he false-counter-claimed...) Calls out Roosh, me, Perzival, episodeofblonde, and tragic as his "confident they're scum" list, but doesn't offer any explanations as to why.

Night Four # 47 - offers (again) only Day One analysis to back up his new-and-improved scumlist. I've already responded to some of his other comments directed to me in the Night Four thread (earlier today), so I won't rehash them again here.

Night Four #61 - compares notes with Atarus and agrees that the interpretations where I overlap as scum on both of their lists is the most likely. Not shocking that I believe the flip side of the coin, and have been suspicious of drainbead and DBI, while episodeofblonde has steadily ping'd me as Colonist.

Random observations:

Klutz has suddenly turned into a high-volume poster after laying kinda low for the first few Days.

He seems to like to talk to Cat v2 a lot, which furthers the angle that they're either both scum or that Klutz is manipulating Cat v2.

In closing, please note that not all of the individual paragraphs carry the same weight analytically speaking, but are potentially compelling when combined with others in the appropriate context.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

Yay for blue pee. Yay for evaporation of Gov WIFOM. Yay for finally getting closes to some tangible Colonist confirmations without the nasty side-effect of death.

[Pollux Oil]

roosh said:

That being said: I did have a question that struck me last night while i was studying, and I've wanted to ask Atarus: Can you CONFIRM 100% that your Masons' are clean? (Flashback to Gone in 60 Seconds: "the ladies are dirty"). It's a minor point... but it's one that struck me: Your mason group- can you confirm for sure that all of you are NOT scum (Mainly, could the nexus-9 be hidden in there?) Just a simple Yes or a No for confirmation and that's all I wanna know, because it's such a paranoid thought of bastard modding (to put a scum into a mason group... but it's always one I've wanted to do)....

Basically, I grew up with my fellow Masons. We drifted apart, but I've known them since childhood which means I'm 100% certain they're not Replicants. So there ya go.

[mtgman]

catinasuit said:

I'm reading this for the third or fourth time and I keep coming to the same conclusion.

Storyteller - you are a seriously sick man - Get help now.

Hey! Greedy Smurf, sachertorte, Idle Thoughts, and myself all helped design the game. Where's the plea for our sanity?

Enjoy,
Steven

[kassia]

CiaS - you asked me what I think about Tragic, so I went back and took a look at her posts.

To start off with, I wanted to give her the benefit of the doubt, cuz she subbed in and I would imagine it's always hard to come into a game that's already started. Here's a brief summary of her posts (not including fluff or out of game).

-------

2.27 she's astonished at huge bloodshed and is slightly suspicious of sinjin.

2.31 apologizes for using lingo from other games she's playing in

2.33 nervous that Kat was killed so early

2.41 asks DbI to share any insight she may have on why Kat was targeted

2.93 FoS's Pleo for so much lacking in his post analysis system. Asks that people be more thorough if they are going to present any type of analysis and warns Pleo she is watching him.

2.125 agrees with atarus about circular discussion and having to break free from Pleo talk. Says if Pleo and atarus are both voting for mhaye, why hasn't everyone else launched off in that direction. Says mhaye is not addressing questions put to him and she wants to hear more from him.

2.172 doesn't understand why people don't just come forward at the beginning of the day with their reasons and vote. Is suspicious of Dio for lurking here and posting elsewhere. Votes Dio.

2.179 warns against waiting until last minute and blindsiding. log votes, participate in discussion and make your points. dont' sit on something till last minute.

3.41 on the 'good' side only one kill. game is confusing. catching up on reading. people were looking at zeriel, and he may be suspicious but doesn't want to get caught up in just looking at one person again.

3.94 gut says Pleo is townie but something tells her to investigate more. concerned about rushing to make a judgement. trying to be more thorough in analysis. Is looking at Pleo and zeriel. Also looking at atarus and Roosh, maybe because of outside bias and because they are so vocal. Torn between zeriel and Pleo.

3.136 is not slacking, just needs to take time to analyze in order to make a more informed vote

3.186 work is kicking her ass. been on a roller coaster ride about Pleo. doesn't want to hop on the bandwagon but feels as if there is no other choice. has been paying attention to zeriel and he's had others looking at him. says other suspects (DbI, sinjin and kassia) don't stand out as scum. Roosh stands out and she can't get a solid read but others have made cases against him. Says 4 people she suspects the most: Pleo, sinjin, Roosh, zeriel. wanted to take her time and be thorough. Only votes once instead of changing her vote continuously to serve her needs. wont' vote Pleo even though she wants to because it would be personal. votes zeriel. says she does this partly because of what the vote list looks like and she isn't worried about him going this is just a serious FoS.

4.28 inclined to look towards Pleo's suspicions but tends to put alot more thought into votes than to vote this quickly. inclined to look at zeriel again. hopes for good debate.

4.163 is back from a LOA over the weekend. catching up and outlining reasons against top 2 suspects - kassia and zeriel. outlines some posts from zeriel, kassia and people making cases against them. wonders why other people are standing up for kassia and where she is. most obvious breadcrumbs Pleo left are votes against kassia. was skeptical of Pleo but knows now that he was vanilla townie and is using that in her analyzation of his posts. votes kassia. some of the reason is gut intuition. responds to atarus saying she never voted for Pleo on Day Three - only for zeriel. apologizes for being nit-picky about her game. says to check the LOA thread and she didn't have enough time to check in and make an educated vote which is how she rolls.

4.172 apologizes to kassia for not noticing that she was LOA all weekend as well. apologizes for referring to Pleo as a vanilla townie. gives an excuse about another game and her files and how he was labeled.

N4.48 going through Day Four after being gone all weekend wasn't fun. kept a list of things that popped up in discussion concerning people at the top of her suspect list. forgot to remove a bullet point from her list concerning kassia because she'd forgotten what was going on.

N4.53 DbI not at top of suspect list. she's been inconspicuous, lots of fluff posts, but nothing hurtful to town. a bit of a bandwagon voter providing little new info to town. she may just be busy. nothing jumps out as scum tell.

-------


I honestly just can't tell what I think about Tragic after going through her posts. On the one hand, I want to just acknowledge that she has been busy, had company, has a cold, etc etc etc. And give her the benefit of the doubt.

On the other hand, it's kind of hard to ignore all the glaringly obvious mistakes she has made in her posts.

In posts 2.27 and 4.163 she makes syntax mistakes, using outside games as an excuse.

She talks and talks and talks about doing thorough, in-depth player analysis, but not once does she present us with any that she has done herself.

She talks and talks and talks about needing to do analysis in order to make informed decisions on votes and not jumping on bandwagons, but then votes randomly, says she is voting due to gut intuition, throws people onto her suspicion lists that she hasn't even mentioned previously. In post 3.186 she first says that sinjin hasn't shown any scumtell. then 2 sentences later all of a sudden sinjin is on her top 4 scum list. How does that happen? The same thing happened when she voted for me. I was never mentioned at all except for her to say that I didn't show any scumtell, and then all of a sudden in post 4.163 I am one of 2 people at the top of her list.

If she is serious about doing thorough read-thrus and making informed decisions, she is certainly not showing that with how she has been playing. Like i said...I am really wanting to give her the benefit of the doubt and say she has been busy. But if you are going to chastise other players for shoddy analysis, not voting early and not voting informed, not paying attention to when you are going to be away....and then do all these things yourself....I honestly don't know what to make of her right now. I'm going to FoS Tragic right now as an indication of my dissatisfaction with how she has been playing. I'm interested to hear what she may have to say in defense of herself.

[CatInASuit]

pygmyrugger said:

catinasuit said:

<snip>Did you take inject Hockey Monkey on the first day?

Why is this important?

Hockey Monkey's death is still intriguing me. I am thinking more and more along the lines of

CIAS v.1 was killed by the scum to put pressure on zeriel
Kat was killed by Pleonast for some reason (unless we have another Vig/one-shot-kill role going on)

Hockey Monkey's death scene was just too wierd for a standard death scene as is sinjin's speciality.

I wanted to see if another side effect was what took out Hockey Monkey? And if you don't ask, you never find out.

And if true, means it is likely, IMHO, that the scum have only ever had one kill at Night, which makes me feel slightly better given the first night carnage.

Consider it fitting two unknowns together to see if they match.

sinjin - I can quite understand your reasons for declining. I will not ask further.

[CatInASuit]

Top Suspects
7. drainbead
8. episodeofblonde

Suspects
2. Captain Klutz
4. CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Death by Irony
6. diggitcamara
9. kassia
10. Kat v. 2.0 (Yattara)
11. Parzival
12. Roosh
15. Tragic (hazelnutcoffee)
16. zuma Version 2.0 (Blaster Master)

Likely Town
1. atarus
13. Santo Rugger
14. sinjin

Definitely Town
3. CatinaSuit v. 2.0 (Hal Briston)

This is my opinion following the various claims. Yes, I think sinjin is likely telling the truth. It is just to gross to be anything other than a real Bastard Mod^TM creation.

<meta game>
Mods
You're all sick, sick men. All of you. Gaagh!!
</meta game>

[Captain Klutz]

cometothedarkside said:

Yay for blue pee. Yay for evaporation of Gov WIFOM. Yay for finally getting closes to some tangible Colonist confirmations without the nasty side-effect of death.

Cookies, are you claiming blue pee?

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies said:

Yay for blue pee. Yay for evaporation of Gov WIFOM. Yay for finally getting closes to some tangible Colonist confirmations without the nasty side-effect of death.

kassia said:

Blade Runner is coming out on Blue Ray disc on December 18th. I can't wait!

Before anyone asks...

No, I will not be spying in the bathroom for any evidence.

[kassia]

I guess it's safe now for me to admit to whizzing blue.

I had found Rugger's comments and references odd, too, until I woke up this Morning and had an "aha" moment while on the toilet. I put a small breadcrumb in my first post today, hoping he would catch it and we could maybe figure out what was going on. I didn't want to blatantly claim anything until I had a little more information.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

captainklutz said:

cometothedarkside said:

Yay for blue pee. Yay for evaporation of Gov WIFOM. Yay for finally getting closes to some tangible Colonist confirmations without the nasty side-effect of death.

Cookies, are you claiming blue pee?

No, I am not claiming blue pee. I was expressing exultation as to the discovery of an apparent method of alignment confirmation.

[Parzival]

sinjin, along the lines of CatInASuit's "negative side effects" question.

You said you have a gun-like device that you shoot someone with. Is this something you do surreptitiously or is there a chance they could notice what you did other than the indicanuria? The way it works (in a game mechanics sense) would seem to indicate no, but I want to make sure all the bases are covered.


If it works like I think it does, then we have a way to generate 'confirmed town' without killing them. Santo Rugger already pointed out the numbers, and it implies we have a pretty good chance even though we haven't caught scum yet.



This is shaping up to be a productive Day.


While I'm at it - I posted a list of voting records by player in the Night thread.

here's the link

I plan to re-post it to the Day thread, but want to make sure there's no errors in it. So check your name, if you would and let me know if I have something wrong.

[RoOsh]

captainklutz said:

Cookies, are you claiming blue pee?

This comment is just so awesome.... I can picture us as a Town now just crowding around the public outhouses....
"Well? Well? How was it?"
And then out comes a very saddened Dr. Sachatorte: "What has my life come down to? I'm a doctor, dammit, not a urologist!"

[CatInASuit]

Captain Klutz,

You said you had evidence that your 5 suspects were all scum because they had been acting as a team.

Cite!

And no, Day 1 voting patterns on their own do not count. I want to see multi-Day proof they are eeeevil.

[Captain Klutz]

Cat.v2

Yes, I'm still putting together. They stood out when I was reading (all days, not just Day 1), the challenge is presenting it (I'm a better analyst than writer).

So yes, it's coming, maybe in bits.

[Parzival]

Sinjin, scratch my last question. You do NOT need to answer it.

I was going to ask you another question but it appears kassia just answered it.

The question being, "Did you put the nanobots in my system last night?".

Because I experienced an event that very nearly matches what Santo Rugger was saying this morning (hence my questioning of him), but had slight differences.

All I'll say is that somebody did something to me last night^*.
The thing is there's a chance the person did what they did out of suspicion of me, which is why I don't want to stay silent. I understand that if I were scum, I could probably say these things too, but I can't see a reason not to mention it.

I also don't think further discussion will prove useful. If they're pro-colony they almost certainly should not come forward, but I honestly don't know enough about it myself (for all I know it was a one-time power).


*YES, a similar thing happened to me in Firefly (no comparison is meant between what happened there and here. I only point out the coincidence.)

[Captain Klutz]

Reply to Cookies #37 above

Day One #204 – Goes after confirmed Colonists zeriel and Pleo based on their respective grammar “slips”.

They weren't confirmed Colonists on Day 1. But what's your point? You have also voted for Colonists.

Day One #247 – Looking back on what we know now, and realizing how accurate some portions of this post reads in hindsight, I suspect that he had some inside information that others did not have at that time. Also, combined with post #251, it seems awfully early to even try and hypothesize as to how many scum there are, let alone what roles they might hold. Doing so early smacks of trying to exploit and exacerbate the default confusion of the closed set up.

As far as I can see, the only accurate thing concerns the significance of rogue replicants. What else in it was "amazingly accurate"? And talking about scum and scum roles looks an entirely sensible way to figure out the setup and to get scum to slip up. I don't see how this serves to "exploit and exacerbate the default confusion of the closed set up".

Day One #283 – Covers the bases to ensure that a role like Pleo’s would be lynched upon discovery, even if there was a possibility that the Colonists include a Colony-aligned replicant. Better safe than sorry, especially when the “safe” thing for the consensus to do would end up killing a Colonist.

If someone invesigates as a Replicant and then claims that they are an ordinary vanilla, then there is no reason to believe the claim. If they claim to be a replicant Blade Runner then we evaluate the claim like any other.

Day Two #126 – Chips away at Pleo’s claim.

Day Three #27 – More chipping away at Pleo’s claim, more laying the ground work to encourage unilateral replicant killing policy, regardless of possibility of the existence of a pro-Colonist replicant.

You are aware that Pleo's claim was false?

Night Three # 45 – Nexus-9 discussion. With so much unknown information, Nexus-9 discussion would be an attractive environment for scum to try and stir up confusion. Of course the same circumstances also make it a logical topic of discussion of Colonists trying to puzzle it out (such as myself). While not the strongest of points against Klutz, it is still worth mentioning that I believe (and have posted as such) that the “conversed” in atarus’ claim is more likely to refer to the scum boards than to in-game conversations, yet Klutz devotes most of this post to the in-game interpretation, and only gives the scum boards a token mention with one sentence.

Yes, I was trying to discuss it. It is one of the few tangible things that we know so I tried to figure it out. Guessing. Hypothesising. Thinking of possible consequences. And I am happy to keep doing so. It is interesting that your mention of it is "to puzzle it out", but mine is "to try and stir up confusion".


Re: Kassia

I no longer think that kassia is scum, which is why she is not on my scum list (the list that I posted last Night, before kassia confirmed her towniness).

Day Four # 160, #162 – unvotes kassia and votes zeriel. Uses Day 1 analysis alone to back up his vote for zeriel. I have a hard time trusting much Day 1 analysis, especially when it is the only analysis in a case against someone this far into the game. Similar to the reasoning with my vote for drainbead on Day Four, I think Klutz tried extremely hard to exploit the circumstantial case against kassia due to Pleo’s analysis, votes, and confirmation as Colonist upon his unfortunite demise. But once it became apparent that consensus was not favoring a kassia lynch, there was no reason not to jump on the bandwagon to zap zeriel, the other Colonist whilte meat.

The Day 1 vote record is enormously valuable, it just takes a few Days for the patterns to be visible. The revelation of zeriel's towniness resulted in a major rethink and reread. The result was 5 people who stood out - the 5 I listed.

Klutz has suddenly turned into a high-volume poster after laying kinda low for the first few Days.

I post when I have something to say. There is now lots of hard data for analysis, so I have more to say.

He seems to like to talk to Cat v2 a lot, which furthers the angle that they're either both scum or that Klutz is manipulating Cat v2.

Cat.v2 is one of the few people who is on the board at the same time, so he is one of the few people I can speak with. It's the same time zone difference that was an issue for you and me in Firefly.

[episodeofblonde]

some answers to some questions:
CIAS2
I just went back to look at Day One, and I couldn't find any defence by Catinasuit1 after I voted for him - are you referring to something else? it was my first Day playing, I thought NAF had made some good points against him, and in particular I thought his attack on zeriel was v weak. Obviously, I was mistaken about him being scummy. So were three others, two of them now proven pro-town players.

Re: my vote for Roosh switching to Klutz. My attitude toward votes is that they aren't precious. I've not had a problem voting for who I thought was scummiest at the time. When I voted for Roosh, I was in a rush and did not want to hammer Pleo - I was v worried there was something funny with his lynch - and Roosh had pinged me for the reasons I said, so I went with voting him to have a vote on record. When I voted for Klutz, someone who'd been pinging me all game, it was a 'straw that broke the camel's back thing' with his interaction with kassia, where he was making some really unwarranted assumptions and continuing to behave in a way I found scummy, as I said. Roosh got put on the back-burner, but Day Four anyway he did not really continue to ping me. Just because I haven’t voted him again doesn’t mean I ain’t watchin’.

Next I will ask some questions myself.

[episodeofblonde]

diggitcamara: what's up? any thoughts? at all?
roosh: scum masons? has that really ever happened? I find it odd you would bring that up now...
rugger: what do you think about kassia now that she has joined you in the claimed blue whizzers?
zuma: what do you think now about the fact that drain bead didn't claim?

People I am most suspicious of right now: Klutz, drain bead. Diggit is also there in the background, being a super-lurker.

I have to agree that sinjin's claim is too bizarre to be an elaborate ploy. The fact that she herself doesn't get the results is strange though...

[Tragic]

Tackling one thing at a time.. from last night.. the request to do an analysis of Death by Irony's posts..

tragic, it was a subtle hint to give us some analysis of Death By Irony's posts in slightly greater detail. Which ones are scummy, which ones aren't.

Ignoring all fluff and out of game posts..

Day 1

.61: Votes Pgymy for Governor (no reason provided); advocate of protown powerroles doing work as 'necessary'; unsure about the lynch/gov plan; color options for FoS.
.62: clarifies that the vote was for Rugger
.70: wants to give benefit of the doubt to people with low post counts
.158: declares that evidence presented by CAIS is not 'ironclad scumtell'
.171: votes Rugger (no reason provided)
.184: doesn't feel that Pleo proposed his plan to cause trouble; comments that scum can't plan during the day
.221: says that Santo is gov so that it's easier to hold him accoutnable for his actions
.244: claims that the vote for Rugger (171) was tongue-in-cheek and unvotes Rugger saying that she'll make a serious vote later
.266: votes zuma (reason: giving her a headache)
.438: believes Pleonast's role/power; comments that NAF's information could indicate less scum than imagined; comments on Klutz's speculation, references FireFly; WIFOM on zuma's behavior and unvotes zuma (needs time to gather thoughts)
.492: provides analysis of people with 2 votes; inclined to believe Pleo's claim; head hurts from thinking about zuma; NAF's claim is powerful; zeriel not using scumtell with grammar no other reason to suspect; CAIS says that she's not averse to pointing out suspicions but sometimes she's no there first or her scumdar isn't going off; votes zuma, again without much of a reason.


Day 2

.18: believes that the results suggest a Vig and SK in addition to scum
.36: respones to Klutz's analysis for no reason as to why Kat died with an FoS
.83: answers a question by roosh about her FoS by referencing another game; claims it was a ping on her radar, turns around and puts FoS on Roosh
.113: claims her FoS was because the analysis was a backhanded way of asking why Kat died
.121: wants people to post relevant information now rather than save it for later; doesn't understand the people voting Pleo for maybe holding onto a bad idea for too long and believing in it; thinks that the crusade against Pleo has to do with the lynching for information strategy
.182: votes Dio (active elsewhere, votes for 1 of the 2 vote leaders rather than wasting vote elsewhere); talks about Pleo's power again


Day 3

.15: declares that her project is done; questions the color of the results but says that the results lend credence to NAF's claim of a resistence; remembers ideas of testing Pleo's claim and wants the Cop to share his/her results - good plan even if Pleo was colony?
.18: explains in more detail her comment about Cop; cop gives information, Pleo plants bomb, if bomb doesn't explode then Pleo is lying (admits its over simplification)
.36: pings on Roosh's reaction from the night as being odd; admits that her previous plan was vulnerable to scum interferance
.169: explains that her FoS were against those who speculated on why people were night killed; says that her post was thinking out loud and dropped it; clarifies her headache comments about zuma; says she's finally caught up in reading and has come across Pleo's eyebrow raising staement (WIFOMs)
.184: quotes zeriel and says that he explained things better; says she's been butting heads with roosh, claims he's quoted her out of context, votes roosh


Day 4

.30: apologizes for not replyin sooner to roosh; apologizes for voting him, says she posted off her memories and 'conflated' several events
.87: points out reasons/ways kassia could come across the scum knowledge; points out that Klutz has shown too much knowledge (FoS on Klutz)
.151: clarifies to rugger that she's been busy and is posting as best she can; after sitting down and reading thorough votes she votes drainbead, says that the ping for scum posts were drainbead's vote for Pleo and her offer to roleclaim
.179: corrects link from previous post


Day 5[/i]

.35: starts off the day by votin for drainbead (same reason as before); comments on the oddity of blue pee
.36: link correction



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Even after a post analysis for DBI she isn't high on my radar at the moment. I may be giving her the benefit of the doubt but I truly believe that we're in similar boats where out of game obligations are doing a number on us. I always find it hard to judge activity against lurking especially during this time of year. It's busy for everyone and to automatically assume that someone is lurking is frequently unfair (imho).

Even so.. she offers votes, little analysis and few reasons. That was a discouraging factor while sifting through her posts. Nothing from her posts jumped at me as scumtell. The only thing that was iffy was her sudden quietness as the days progressed (a lot more vocal on 1 than 4, etc.) but again, we're getting close to the Holidays and there's been a general decline in the population's posts.


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There was some analysis done of me that I'll get to hopefully after lunch (this took me most of the morning between working on projects and what not).

Cheers, T.

[Captain Klutz]

Last Night I presented my scum list, so here is a rundown on how I came up with it.

What I didn't do was evaluate every player and then choose the 5 scummiest. Instead, I went through to see who people were suspicious of, in order to see if there were any patterns.

I found what looked to be a group of players who made a team. I don't mean that they would suddenly pile up against someone if one of them was threatened, I mean they gave a strong impression of having knowledge of each other.


At the time (Night 4), I had the following impressions:

Main scum candidates:
Kassia
Death By Irony
Episodeofblonde

Other candidates:
Parzival
sinjin
Cookies
tragic
drainbead
zuma.v2
diggitcamara

Leaning town:
Kat2
CatinaSuit2
Roosh

Likely town:
atarus
Rugger


I now did a reread, looking at who people claimed they were finding suspicious. Some people find lots of people suspicious, some people not so many. Sometimes it's strong suspicion, sometimes it's fairly weak. Sometimes the suspicion is mutual, sometimes not. But during the readthrough, I noticed what seemed to be a group of people who did not really seem to be suspicious of each other. The impression formed, then solidified as I went on (although admittedly some confirmation bias may have crept in toward the end).

The 5 people were:

Episodeofblonde
Parzival
tragic
Cookies
Roosh

The people in this group suspected lots of others, other people suspected people in this group. But within this group, there was a virtual absence of suspicion. There was some very minor stuff, for example tragic was keeping her eye on roosh (who she knew in real life), but that was all. Heck, the only time one of them voted for another, it was the final vote on Day 3, when episodeofblonde ignored the Pleo wagon (and Pleo's notorious Rugger comment) and cast a throwaway vote for Roosh (and the alleged suspicion that caused this vote was never followed up).


How can a group of 5 out of 16 players not find each other suspicious? Well a 5 member masonry looked unlikely (especially with atarus not in the list) so there was only one possibilty left...


Now I looked at the Day 1 vote record. Day 1 is a treasure trove of information, because it is the Day when the information gap between the sides is at its greatest.


Here is the final Day 1 vote count:

zuma1.0 (6) - Cookies, Kat.v1, Yattara(Kat.v2), zeriel, Death by Irony, Sinjin
Pleonast (5) - kassia, Rugger, diggitcamara, Roosh, Diomedes
CatinaSuit.v1 (4) - NAF1138, drainbead, hockey, episodeofblonde
zeriel (3) - CatinaSuit.v1, mhaye, Klutz
Kat.v1 (2) - Pleonast, Parzival
mhaye (1) - atarus
kassia (1) - zuma.v1
NAF1138 (1) - Hal Briston(Cat.v2)
Non-Voters: BlasterMaster (Zuma2.0), HazelNutCoffee (Tragic)



Now, on Day 1 scum tend to spread themselves out rather than piling on to one player. It's quite striking: for example, in Sekham and in the Psychopaths game, scum finished Day 1 with every one of them voting for a different person. I'm sure they're not always so beautifully spread out, but it seems that scum are very anxious to avoid "clumping".


Checking my list against the final vote tallies, I was both surprised and pleased to find that, sure enough, all 4 of the voting members of that group voted for a different person. I was now pretty confident that I had found a bunch of scum, so I posted the list to the Night thread, just in case I didn't wake up in the Morning.



(This post is fairly short, which belies the amount of time that went into it. I'll probably do some more traditional analyses of the various players a bit later (after some sleep)).

[sinjin]

Cat: I can answer your second question. My nano-bots are benign. They have absolutely no long term effect except maybe some psychological trama. I have to wonder why you asked though, especially about hockeymonkey's death. I went back and read her death scene:

Her arms had been removed from her shoulders, and used to batter her into unconsciousness; the Coroner would ultimately find that death actually occurred when the deceased choked on her own right foot.

My nano-bots are tiny little buggers, nano-scale actually. And for the record I don't shoot them into people or inject them they are absorbed thru the skin. Completely non-violent.

Given my seemingly complete lack of scumdar, I was positive zeriel was scum, I am going to proceed more cautiously toDay. Or maybe I should just hang out by the loo and listen for shrieks.

Just some general thoughts: I'm still suspicious of Roosh for reasons I outlined before. I'm really wondering about Kat's mystery vote for Captain Klutz here. I know we're all busy, but not even a sentence of explanation zuma's calling on me to divulge all post feels more like he didn't read my post very carefully than a scum tell. As for Captain Klutz's, I think I know who all the scum are posts, well I thought the same thing in FF and was wrong about every one of them, but I was still town. I'm beginning to wonder about CatinASuit's morbid curiosity about the night one deaths. Bah, I going to try a complete reread. I'm suspicious of just about everybody except for:

Santo Rugger and kassia. I did indeed nano them both.

And FoS Greedy Smurf I have a feeling you had something to do with the design of my role.

[Pollux Oil]

captainklutz said:

The 5 people were:

Episodeofblonde
Parzival
tragic
Cookies
Roosh

The people in this group suspected lots of others, other people suspected people in this group. But within this group, there was a virtual absence of suspicion. There was some very minor stuff, for example tragic was keeping her eye on roosh (who she knew in real life), but that was all. Heck, the only time one of them voted for another, it was the final vote on Day 3, when episodeofblonde ignored the Pleo wagon (and Pleo's notorious Rugger comment) and cast a throwaway vote for Roosh (and the alleged suspicion that caused this vote was never followed up).

See Klutz, the problem I have with your analysis is that it's too perfect. It's like that old example back in school where the teacher demonstrates that the results of somebody trying to forge "random" results invariably look less random than actual random results.

If there's a group of scum, there's no way they would be so obvious as to never cast suspicion on each other and never vote for each other. Because the scum have to know there's going to be somebody like you that goes out and does that sort of analysis. So I don't think you (or the entire town, for that matter) should be looking for a group of people that never casts suspicion on each other. You should be looking for a group of people that does cast suspicion on each other but never follows through. People that wave that shiny finger of suspicion but never actually vote for who they say they're suspicious of. Or a group of people that do vote for each other, but rarely as their final vote. Or a group of people that vote for each other, but only as one-offs and don't actively try to get a lynch on them.