So my changeover was correct (thanks
hawkeyeop for the wonderful analysis).
Now, tonight will confirm a lot of things. Everyone but
Rysto's claimed to have no more powers at this point. I think it's apparent that
Rysto has a killing ability, regardless of what he is.
First of all, if there are any killers left other than
Rysto, he's dead. Whether Horseman or Town, he's a danger to the other parties.
If
Rysto is indeed vig, does he use his power? On the one hand, if there are two anti-town powers left (which would then be
Kat and
MHaye), at least one has a killing power (whichever one's the demon).
Rysto's guaranteed to hit an anti-town, and he's dying anyway. However, this will hand the game to the third party, since there'll be one town and someone else left. If he doesn't use his power, he dies, and we get three-hand mafia with one town and two separate anti-town elements. In this case, town still loses. So two anti-town elements means town gets to decide who wins, but they can't win.
So since town can't win no matter what when there are two anti-town remaining, we'll ignore this case.
So there's one anti-town remaining. What does
Rysto do? Let's say it's a demon or horseman with a killing ability.
Rysto uses his power and hits the demon. Game over, town wins.
Rysto uses his power and hits town. Game over, town loses, as there will be only one town and one scum left alive. (Of course, this all assumes that scum wins ties, in Doperville, we scum had to actually outnumber the town to win. Otherwise, town still has 50% shot of winnning in this case. Which actually means that if the Horseman can't kill, in the scenario above a town/demon/horseman standoff can come down to a 50% roll-off if the demon is lynched that day, assuming the horseman is a last-man-standing type as well). So this scenario ends up as a WIFOM. It comes down to how strongly
Rysto feels he has a read on the final scum to take the risk.
Now if the last anti-town is a Horseman without a killing ability and
Rysto hits town, this will bring up three-handed mafia tomorrow. Two town (
hawkeyop and
Rysto) and one horseman (likely
Kat, since
Mhaye would be my target if I were vig).
Rysto would know it's
Kat. However, hawkeyop would be the deciding vote. Who does he trust? The conveniently claimed back-up vig who just whacked town? Sure everyone suspects
MHaye at this point, so he's a likely target for a vig, but it would give any townie pause. On the other hand, if
Rysto hits the horseman, game over. Town wins. So like above, this comes down to how strong
Rysto feels he has a read on the final anti-town. However, he has the added benefit of being able to still justify his kill and convince
hawkeyop to lynch the other person. In this case, town has a slight advantage with
Rysto using his power.
Now if
Rysto doesn't use his power, and the remaining party has a killing ability,
Rysto dies. This brings up three-hand tomorrow, with one confirmed townie. Town will have the advantage.
And if
rysto doesn't use his power, and the remaining party does not have a killing ability. We have four hand with three town remaining, one of whom is confirmed. Also, town has nothing to fear from night kills, so town pretty much stands to win this one.
So IMO, if
Rysto is town, he should not vig tonight. Especially since without knowing what power the final parties have, his vig may fail or be redirected. If he really feels strongly in his target, it might be worth the risk, but overall I think it's better to hold back at this point.
Now if
Rysto is demon, he kills
MHaye. It's that simple. He's the most under suspicion. If
MHaye's a horseman,
Rysto will probably win unless
Kat can convince
hawkeyop that she's town. It'll be hard.
If
Rysto is killing horseman, he still takes out
MHaye. For the reasons given above. Same ending scenario as well.
If
Kat ends up as the demon, and
Rysto is the horseman (or vice-versa) it'll be interesting to see who actually wins the game of three-hand.