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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 29, 2008 8:35:27 GMT -5
Ok. Here is where I stand and no damn formatting cause I am tired. Hoop and blockey are masons. Po and chucara have kind of cross claimed each other. Ipso fucto that makes me and buff non horseman and non sinister. Darth and cat are bad. One of the cow or hawk is fucking scum. If the "confirmed" stay with the easy ones I think we win. That's the way to play this. If story has an unkillable scum then lay down. And if po or chucker is sinister then we still have a couple of days but are most likely screwed. No time like the present. String darth and let's move on or concede for all intents and purposes. Then cat. I won't protect hawk. If he is still alive then he's full of shit. If dead cowboy toasts. And sorry mh and ah but I still am figuring this out. Can I piss anyone else off. First off, when did Buffy become confirmed town? I think I missed that memo. Secondly, I have a 75% chance of being alive even if you don't protect me, so life doesn't equal scumminess. I understand you want to listen to the masons, but just because they are town, doesn't mean they are right. I urge you to reconsider, because I'm not sure we can afford a 1 for 1 trade at this point. I'd have to run the numbers, but I believe that would put us at lynch or lose.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 29, 2008 8:46:04 GMT -5
All I'm saying is I'm not taking the "easy scum way" of staying hidden in the shadows. I speak up and put myself out there for what I think is right. This doesn't prove anything, and I could certainly be scum utilizing this strategy just to say, "No scum would EVAR do this!!" but I'm not. I have no way to prove that I'm town, and neither do you.
All I'm asking is for the rest of the town to look at our actions and decide if one of us seems more townie than the other, and vote accordingly. There's a 50% chance of getting it right, and should the town choose me I'll go quietly, since I know that my death will reveal the true scum.
Obviously I'll make a FULL claim when the focus turns to the two of us.
--FCOD
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 29, 2008 8:46:20 GMT -5
One last point. I think we are making a mistake ignoring Cat. While personally I want to rid the scum of the role blocker (although that may be a moot point for me now), Cat very well might be as dangerous a threat. Remember, Cat died unexpectedly. He might have powers that he was saving for later in the game that he was unable to use before he died. That could be why the scum brought him back. We shouldn't let him live indefinitely.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 29, 2008 9:14:10 GMT -5
First off, when did Buffy become confirmed town? I think I missed that memo. She's not. She's just way more confirmed than either you or FCOD are since Pollux has gone on record that she is town. Same thing with peeker. As I've said, I don't fully trust Pollux, but so far no information revealed by him has been contradicted in any way by anybody. The truth will come out in time, and we have more important matters to deal with, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. True. But along those lines, your claim that you are infected means nothing as well. We don't know you from Adam. And you have a 50% chance at being plague assuming that the information we have is valid. (And no one's presented any valid counter for why NAF would have lied when I indicated why he probably wasn't lying.) And I really have a hard time seeing anything good coming out of peeker targeting plague. So, it's better for him to target elsewhere. Really? We have four scum alive out of 12 people. Assuming no PFK, that gives us 3 or 4 mislynches before lylo. (Depending if scum need to equal or beat town numbers to win.) And let's say you died of the plague toDay. That means we now have 3 mislynches before lylo regardless of scum needing to tie or beat us. So your death from legacy is essentially is only half a mislynch, same as a vig kill would get us. Either is a better alternative than us having to go into that pool and picking wrongly, which gives us a full mislynch. So until you manage to get confirmed, it's better for you to die of the disease. Scum killing Rugger got rid of townie who could give them Hell in the endgame, but it also gave us a smaller pool for the last unexposed horseman to hide in.
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Post by Hawkmod on Oct 29, 2008 9:23:12 GMT -5
She's not. She's just way more confirmed than either you or FCOD are since Pollux has gone on record that she is town. I had forgotten that Pollux investigated her. I still think Peek is a bit too fast with confirmed town lists though. How are you coming up with those numbers? You know the scum are going to still kill at night right? At most we have 2 mislynches left.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 29, 2008 9:30:52 GMT -5
I am concerned that Cat is a scum-bomb or some such shit. He seems to be pushing for us to lynch him again today (although that could just be because he is the least powerful Horseman), and now that hawkeyeop, who I know to be a Horseman is suggesting the same thing it makes me very very nervous. What if lynching Cat will kill one of the people who voted for him?
Here's a draft of a plan. Bear with me for this, because I'm not sure if it makes sense yet. Let's say that CatInASuit is a bomb. To minimize the damage of Cat's hypothetical bomb, I suggest that as a town we agree to start the countdown on Cat and then have everyone remove their votes except myself and hawkeye. Should the town decide to go with this plan and hawkeye won't participate it doesn't exactly cast him in a "town" light.
Now, what would prevent the scum from voting for someone else and overpowering the two votes on Cat? Well, the living scum are Cat, hawkeyeop, Darth, and an unknown Mr. Sinister. To swing the lynch to someone else would take three votes, so Darth, Cat and Mr. Sinister would have to vote, revealing himself in the process. Alternatively, a PFK could swing the vote away, but they would certainly be anti-town and we could kill them the next day.
This way, should Cat be able to kill someone as he's being lynched, we limit our losses to me and hawkeye. I'm willing to take a 50% chance on that.
Now, if I'm wrong and Cat doesn't have the ability to kill one of us, we are still lynching a horseman, and we aren't any worse off.
I think this is the best course of action for today, but let's hear some thoughts!
--FCOD
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 29, 2008 9:30:53 GMT -5
One last point. I think we are making a mistake ignoring Cat. While personally I want to rid the scum of the role blocker (although that may be a moot point for me now), Cat very well might be as dangerous a threat. Remember, Cat died unexpectedly. He might have powers that he was saving for later in the game that he was unable to use before he died. That could be why the scum brought him back. We shouldn't let him live indefinitely. If we let him live indefinitely, we lose the game anyway. But what gives you indication we are ignoring him? However, the blocker is the most dangerous to us because he can stop our powers. We also have Plague who is apparently wielding the Legacy Virus which has been shown now to allow scum to kill more than once in a night. So we should kill him as soon as possible after. I'd rather go after the known dangers first than the unknown. The unknown could be worse, but it might not be. Also, as time wears on, the unknowns begin to become knowns, whereby a non WIFOM strategy can be formed. We have a lot of unanswered questions out there. (Where's Sinister hiding? What did CIAS's supposed death accomplish? Is Diggit going to come back? Is he still going to be Town? Is Pollux telling us the full truth or is he Sinister or a 3rd party leading us around? Is Darth going to escape the lynch yet again? Who is Storm? Should we come down to CIAS, Sinister, and 3rd party, do we go for the sure thing risking a 3rd party win of some sort, or do we start lynching unknowns and risking lylo?) The info will come out eventually, for better or for worse. But what we do know is that Darth has been outed as Famine. You or FCOD have been outed as Plague. Unless you can give us more reasons besides WIFOM's for why our current strategy of lynching Darth and following up with you and FCOD is particularly bad, I don't believe we should change. You're right that masons can be wrong, and frequently are. But the difference is that our motives are clear, and it's something you (and to be fair FCOD) of all people at this point can't reliably claim.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 29, 2008 9:33:35 GMT -5
You know what, we should not try lynching Cat today. Hoopy is right, we should go for the blocker first. I do think we should consider my plan for tomorrow, since I am concerned about the effects of lynching Cat.
--FCOD
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 29, 2008 9:38:04 GMT -5
How are you coming up with those numbers? You know the scum are going to still kill at night right? At most we have 2 mislynches left. You're right, I calculated the night kills but forgot to calculate the scum. Still, it doesn't change the point that scum are not going to kill the one of you that isn't a horseman. And if they do, they out themselves. It's also why I doubt they would have killed Rugger and infected you on the same night.
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Post by bufftabby on Oct 29, 2008 10:50:07 GMT -5
I think we should lynch CiaS first, then hop on over to Darth. The thing I'm worried about there is that since CiaS is pushing his own lynch so hard, it seems like he's intentionally trying to make us say "Hey! Wait a minute! We'd better vote for Darth!" He is WiFoMing us good here, and I'm not sure how to take it (the very nature of the WiFoM is its uncertainty, of course, but you smell what I'm stepping in). But I think we should kill off the one whose power is unknown first, because a role-blocker is not a Town-killer (except in the sense that ALL scum are), while we have no idea how many CiaS could take out. I am really starting to think that his apparent zeal for being the lynch candidate is a ploy to keep us from lynching him toDay. I think that the most important aspect of our lynch toDay is that we decide who it is somewhat quickly. We've only got 4 days (well 3 now, I suppose), and I really would prefer that we not have any last minute surprise lynches. I cannot emphasize enough how important I think it is that we decide our lynch candidate in a timely manner. vote CatinaSuit[/color] Sorry, CiaS, you are just too well-dressed for this kitty.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 29, 2008 10:54:55 GMT -5
You know, I can't believe how afraid you lot are to vote for me. I'm not going to bomb anyone, that schtick is so old. It's not like anyone has asked me any reasonable questions either.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 29, 2008 10:58:31 GMT -5
Sorry bufftabby, the suit's reserved.
So's the pelt.
Ummm, you can have the silver dining set.
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Post by bufftabby on Oct 29, 2008 11:19:16 GMT -5
Oh, I don't want your suit, or your pelt. I just want your balls when you get fixed.
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Darth Sensitive
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Oct 29, 2008 12:53:08 GMT -5
First off, when did Buffy become confirmed town? I think I missed that memo. She's not. She's just way more confirmed than either you or FCOD are since Pollux has gone on record that she is town. Same thing with peeker. As I've said, I don't fully trust Pollux, but so far no information revealed by him has been contradicted in any way by anybody. The truth will come out in time, and we have more important matters to deal with, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. Yes it has.
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Post by Mister Blockey on Oct 29, 2008 13:13:51 GMT -5
She's not. She's just way more confirmed than either you or FCOD are since Pollux has gone on record that she is town. Same thing with peeker. As I've said, I don't fully trust Pollux, but so far no information revealed by him has been contradicted in any way by anybody. The truth will come out in time, and we have more important matters to deal with, so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt for now. Yes it has. You're obviously scum darth, you don't count.
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Oct 29, 2008 13:16:56 GMT -5
I hate you all Unvote CiaS Vote Darth SensitiveGoodbye cruel world!
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Post by bufftabby on Oct 29, 2008 13:43:09 GMT -5
Okay, now I am totally convinced that the scum want us to keep CiaS alive and off Darth. Let's confound them, shall we?
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 29, 2008 14:19:00 GMT -5
Okay, now I am totally convinced that the scum want us to keep CiaS alive and off Darth. Let's confound them, shall we? Frankly, today's events and reflections have convinced me that CIAS is the least valuable surviving member of the scum team right now. If (as appears feasible) Pestilence is spreading the Legacy virus, he's able to increase the number of deaths per Night - and remember they would be Town focussed. If that's correct there has to be a pro-Town defence somewhere - if not Peeker, then someone else who hasn't been IDd yet. We know CIAS isn't Pestilence. The evidence points to a scum-aligned roleblocker. Whoever it is is interfering with our other powers, hampering our efforts to ID scum and slow the spread of the Legacy virus. We know the roleblocker isn't CIAS. The evidence also points to a leader of the Horsemen; quite possibly Mister Sinister, since we know Apocalypse was betrayed and deposed. Stacked against those, what good is a Mafia strongman? Especially since we seem to have lost our Doc and the pro-town blocker - the very roles a Strongman would work against? My lynch priority list right now is Pestilence, Leader of the Cavalry, Roleblocker, CIAS. Let's lynch Darth.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 29, 2008 14:57:37 GMT -5
Yeah, let's lynch Darth, the backstabbing so and so. unvote CIAS vote Darth Sensitive
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 29, 2008 15:26:41 GMT -5
It's not like anyone has asked me any reasonable questions either. Fine. Fine. (This ought to be good.) Interview With The Scum Strongman*Tape rolling.* We'll start with an easy volley. So Mr. Strongman...er...Death...er, is it okay if I call you Scum?...If not, so be it. Whatever you prefer. Anyway, what exactly caused you to die in the first place?
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Post by Chucara on Oct 29, 2008 16:06:27 GMT -5
It's not like anyone has asked me any reasonable questions either. Fine. Fine. (This ought to be good.) Interview With The Scum Strongman*Tape rolling.* We'll start with an easy volley. So Mr. Strongman...er...Death...er, is it okay if I call you Scum?...If not, so be it. Whatever you prefer. Anyway, what exactly caused you to die in the first place? Oh oh, I got one! Mr. Scummy person sir.. Who are the other scum members? We need that, to uhm.. verify that you are really scum.. Also, please post your complete role pm. Thanks a bunch -Town
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Post by KidVermicious on Oct 29, 2008 16:33:23 GMT -5
Who are the other scum members? *raises hand*
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Oct 29, 2008 17:00:09 GMT -5
:::points at UATU:::
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Post by Chucara on Oct 29, 2008 17:05:42 GMT -5
Before this drowns in fluff, a question for the more experienced players:
This double whammy or night kills and resurrecting/lynch dodging scum: Could this be a deus ex machina from the mods in order to balance the game? (With NAF outing Glod knows how many scum) ?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 29, 2008 17:34:31 GMT -5
Before this drowns in fluff, a question for the more experienced players: This double whammy or night kills and resurrecting/lynch dodging scum: Could this be a deus ex machina from the mods in order to balance the game? (With NAF outing Glod knows how many scum) ? While others with more experience than I have are probably more qualified to answer this, I highly doubt this would occur without a formal announcement. While metagame oddities can occur, they are usually minor and handled typically with announcements if they'll impact the game at large in any way. For example, in Batman we had the mods reveal information accidentally to an active player by sending the wrong PM. This player was subbed. In pedescribe's Terminator game one of the dead players accidentally revealed fairly inconsequential but still relevant information to another active player via chat. This could have been useful to town and hurt scum. It was decided by everyone watching (including the currently dead scum) that announcing this would have upset the game more than ensuring that the player could not benefit from the info nor reveal it to his other townies. Doing so would instantly modkill him and guarantee he lost no matter which side ended up winning. In gastard mod I was entranced by CIAS on the last Day, which was supposed to make me catatonic for that Day, but no one told me until two real-time days into it. The mods then edited all my posts. So weird stuff can occur, but something like this with no outward indication of the mods doing it leads me to conclude that it is indeed part of the game. Especially since there was no explanation on how CIAS died earlier. He was unlikely to have been vigged at that point, since it was early. We've established that scum wield Legacy, so it's not as if he would have died of that. So it was probably a voluntary power he had that had some as of yet unknown affect. And along those lines, while lynch-resistant scum aren't common, it's not unheard of. In an no-vanilla game with scum only making up 20% of the populace, expect them to have some strong powers. The thing I find most interesting about this game is that we have had no concrete evidence of Mr. Sinister at all. No one's seen him rear his scummy head anywhere. But right now this game appears to still winnable by anyone going into the end game. Town are close to lynch-or-lose, scum are most-likely outed, save one, and any 3rd parties remaining are well hidden. If scum do nothing but concentrate on town or town does nothing but concentrate on scum, both sides leave the door open for a steal-the-win 3rd party to come through. But at the same time, any lynch of a 3rd party effectively nets a mislynch for town because it leaves the scum numbers steady while reducing the non-scum by one. At this point, it's safer for scum to target the 3rd parties than for us. Scum really don't reduce their chances to win much by taking out the steal-the-win types, since the numbers reduction is the same regardless. However, the tradeoff for them is they leave town in a stronger position by not killing us. But at this point, we basically can't afford to go searching for third parties. Not when we have so few lynches to play with.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 29, 2008 17:40:23 GMT -5
The thing I find most interesting about this game is that we have had no concrete evidence of Mr. Sinister at all. No one's seen him rear his scummy head anywhere. Blue-sky thinking time. We don't know that CIAS isn't the real leader of the Horsemen. According to NAF, the plan of Apocalypse was to have Mister Sinister be the Horseman of Death. I'm inclined to believe that part of NAF's story, because his claim to be Apocalypse, a third party, was verified by his modkill. This after all the colour pointing to Apocalypse as the leader of the Horsemen. Suppose the scum leader didn't recruit someone to replace himself when he usurped Apocalypse's place; but instead kept the position of the Horseman of Death and pretended to be just another servant of the real Apocalypse? In this case, we could conjecture that his resurrection is due to the failure to kill the real role - that the impersonation provides him with a one-shot resurrection. The foregoing is pure speculation, without a scrap of direct evidentiary support. But it would make a nice plot, wouldn't it?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Oct 29, 2008 18:24:50 GMT -5
The thing I find most interesting about this game is that we have had no concrete evidence of Mr. Sinister at all. No one's seen him rear his scummy head anywhere. Blue-sky thinking time. We don't know that CIAS isn't the real leader of the Horsemen. According to NAF, the plan of Apocalypse was to have Mister Sinister be the Horseman of Death. I'm inclined to believe that part of NAF's story, because his claim to be Apocalypse, a third party, was verified by his modkill. This after all the colour pointing to Apocalypse as the leader of the Horsemen. Suppose the scum leader didn't recruit someone to replace himself when he usurped Apocalypse's place; but instead kept the position of the Horseman of Death and pretended to be just another servant of the real Apocalypse? In this case, we could conjecture that his resurrection is due to the failure to kill the real role - that the impersonation provides him with a one-shot resurrection. The foregoing is pure speculation, without a scrap of direct evidentiary support. But it would make a nice plot, wouldn't it? It would. But that would mean only 4 scum out of 25 players. And since CIAS clearly outed himself in his "death", it would essentially be exposing the scum leader as a lynch candidate. So he (and the rest of scum, for that matter) would have to have some powerful tricks up his sleeve to compensate.
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Post by peekercpa on Oct 29, 2008 21:23:58 GMT -5
REPEAT ALERT. REPEAT ALERT.
Lynch Darth.
If he is a scum role blocker then I get free reign on the Legacy portion of this game. That way scum are gonna kill me PDQ. But if they go after me PO and chucara get another chance or chances. Of course, if they are scum I have already folded top pair to a busted straight or non made flush.
And to be perfectly honest with you gals/guys and myself I am not nearly in the league of a CIAS, Hoopy, FCOD, PO, Buffer, MHaye, Darth or The Rest of You when it comes to the analytical portion of the game. So my death really doesn't hurt town in that regard.
Of course, if we go down the drop biscuit route again you phuquers are going to have to channel Julia Childe via Ouija for any meaningful input.
Oh, and scummers, I have been successful in innoculating three players.
CLUE
There are between zero and three remaining in this game. Hope this is helpful.
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Oct 29, 2008 22:07:01 GMT -5
Heh - you put me up there at the analytical-ness.
I'm horrible at that - see the recruiting game.
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Post by peekercpa on Oct 29, 2008 22:22:52 GMT -5
Heh - you put me up there at the analytical-ness. I'm horrible at that - see the recruiting game. But that is where we will have to disagree. Your kill on night one was brilliant. Your silly night post, eh, not so much. And of course the BM pick after that sealed the deal. I don't think you would ever do that again. Experience and such, don't you know. Are you sure you are not a Renegade KS? And, BTW the game in Lubbock this weekend will be epic, me thinks. PredectionTT - 45, UT 37 Kills me to post, however.
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