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Post by sinjin on Jan 4, 2009 20:25:04 GMT -5
OK, the recent KidV/Chucara conversation makes me even more sure that Nanook shouldn't post his pm. It also makes me more suspicious of Chucara.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 4, 2009 20:32:15 GMT -5
just sha me now. I promise I will be better tomorrow.
Coding help again, Idle.
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Gir!
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Post by Gir! on Jan 4, 2009 21:33:53 GMT -5
I feel compelled to faux-vote Special Ed based on his recent nonsensical spiny-related posts.
If AH's spiny was a lynch-detonated scum bomb (and AH is scum, which is how I interpreted your theory), why would she have revealed its existance?
And why would anyone hide being spinied? A spinied scum or PFK played would have as much (or perhaps more) motivation for eliminating a mad spiny-er.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 22:16:53 GMT -5
More analysis: Night 2 for Ed: One post, complaining about all the claims we had on Day 2. Day 3: 3.96: Agrees on letting Mitey live another day After that follows a large number of posts concerning peeker's hounding of Mitey about the win condition change PM's, and how peeker was voting Mitey for what was a bad reason. There were people on both sides of this, so I think scum probably split themselves up. Ed fell on the "vote peeker" side of things. If someone else wants to, they can take a closer look at this now that we know that peeker was town and I've confirmed Mitey. Otherwise, I'll get to it at some point, but I can't guarantee I'll get to it by Day's end. I'll try toNight if possible. Also noteworthy is story's bufftabby lynch analysis. It can be found here: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=water&action=display&thread=620&page=7#36751 (link likely only good until Idle starts screwing with the forums again, in which case it is Repies 200, 201, and 202 for Day 3). I highly recommend we revisit this analysis from story, especially knowing the alignments of many involved, and knowing that a townie posted it about the lynch train he and another townie (i.e. NAF) pushed for a third townie. There's a lot of info there. I plan to look over it more closely as well after finishing Ed. (Which might not be until tomorrow, unfortunately. Frackin' holidays.) I will note that Ed unvoted bufftabby, safely distancing himself from what he sees as a bad lynch but doesn't revote--not even the number two person who we now know was not only scum but the Godfather. He never even said why he thought DBI or anyone else would have been a bad choice. He jumps off of a train that was unlikely to be derailed, but doesn't join the other one that would be bad for scum at this point should it gather steam. And remember, DBI was a safe "townie cred" choice for scum at that point, because tabby was still 2 votes ahead, and had townies who had made convincing cases against her, making it unlikely that the lurking DBI was going to get swung to anyway. However, things changed a bit and totallost brought DBI up to 7 votes, one shy of townie bufftabby. [Yeah, I know, I'm analyzing Ed here, but this makes totallost look about as damn townie as any action anyone has done this entire game. I mean, for scum to do something like that to their own godfather on Day 1 is extremely gutsy. Especially since KidV--our claimed Mason--jumps to make DBI tied with Bufftabby. At this point Rugger defends DBI, votes bufftabby and convinces KidV to switch to tabby. The scum godfather lives another few Days. There is a lot of analysis here to be done here and as alignments of more people come out, this is probably our single greatest set of data points for end game. Rugger doesn't look good. And while it would be a gutsy play for scum to do what he did, Rugger is the type who would do it. He's one of the biggest proponents of "scum would never do that" being crappy reasoning for saying someone isn't scum. And he's one who will do what "scum would never do" just because scum would never be expected to do it. If any scum were on the wagon before DBI became a truly viable lynchee, for them to drop off would have been extremely telling. In fact, that would be pointed out by many as a scum tell. But one thing I've observed in our group is that the agressive play tends to be given more leeway than the passive play does. Unvoting DBI would be fairly passive. Convincing others to do so is agressive. Things don't look too rosy for Rugger coming out of this. But you know what? Things look even worse for Ed. (See, even I see agressive plays as last damning then passive plays. If anyone wants to fine-tooth comb Rugger, go ahead.) In all honesty, I'll keep analyzing Ed, but I really have little reservations at this point in voting him. (Or "unvoting" him as the case is here.) 3.233: This post is in response to story's analysis mentioned above. Mentions again that story does scare him and that he was right in Ed not having a vote and that story never voted Ed. Still feels his actions were pro-town, though. The rest of Day 3 is largely responses about the whole faux-vote thing, rehash of previous arguments he's made, and defense of people who have attacked him. There's nothing noteworthy there actually. It's pretty consistent with other stuff. His vote ended up on peeker. Like many others did. As I said, the peeker lynch is no doubt worth revisiting as well. Night 3: Nothing much other than concern over scum being able to talk after the Warp, which echoes a concern I originated and asked Idle about, and was confirmed by Idle that the scum still could strategize on the scum board after the Warp. Day 4 next. (Note, I won't be analyzing Day 5. I've already either addressed any concerns about Ed from Day 5 in this thread, or asked him to clarify them.)
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Post by special on Jan 4, 2009 22:20:16 GMT -5
I feel compelled to faux-vote Special Ed based on his recent nonsensical spiny-related posts. If AH's spiny was a lynch-detonated scum bomb (and AH is scum, which is how I interpreted your theory), why would she have revealed its existance? That wasn't a theory, it was a possibility, and I suggested I vote (unvote) last just in case. If you'd read my other posts, you'd see I felt I was most likely wrong, but it doesn't hurt to be careful. And why would anyone hide being spinied? A spinied scum or PFK played would have as much (or perhaps more) motivation for eliminating a mad spiny-er. I don't know about this, but it IS a possibility. Unlikely, yes, but possible still. and, {NOTICE I AM NOT CLAIMING THIS IS ACCURATE OR A THEORY. I AM ONLY CLAIMING THAT IT IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES} A Scum or PFK or even Town might want to keep their spiny-ness a secret if the spiny does something unexpected. Perhaps it gives a person some sort of immunity or defense against investigation, targeting, etc. It could actually be a positive thing. We really don't know. Well, at least I don't know. The person spined might not know, and I'd assume you'd agree with that, Kat and Almost. Maybe someone might be keeping it a secret to see what happens to others first. I hate it that we might be limiting our thoughts and actions too narrowly. We've already seen that this game does not go as we might expect it. I'm trying to keep an open mind. If I'm going to be required to only post things that are completely accurate, I won't be able to say very much at all. I'm trying to generate ideas, think out loud, start conversations, find Scum. I feel as if every word I say is being dissected now and looked at as a reason to vote for me. I guess the point is that I don't agree with the concept of "Well, Special Ed is just wrong and has bad ideas that I don't agree with, so he must be Scum." It's fine if you think I'm scummy, it really is, I guess, and there's not much I can do about it. But if you look at it from the point of a clueless player who is just trying to put out ideas, then it also makes sense.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 22:20:21 GMT -5
Neta: "See, even I see agressive plays as last damning then passive plays" that "last" should be "less".
And aggressive is typoed.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 22:38:01 GMT -5
If I'm going to be required to only post things that are completely accurate, I won't be able to say very much at all. I'm trying to generate ideas, think out loud, start conversations, find Scum. I feel as if every word I say is being dissected now and looked at as a reason to vote for me. I guess the point is that I don't agree with the concept of "Well, Special Ed is just wrong and has bad ideas that I don't agree with, so he must be Scum." I really hope you're not accusing me of this. I'm not voting you because I disagree with any of your ideas. I'm voting you because I think you're likely scum. And, to be honest, I also want to see if the inconclusive means anything. The two inconclusives are gotten are on people I don't have a strong townie feel from. If you are scum, things will look bad for chucara. Because I know I can get a townie read from townies. I don't know what you or chucara are. I mean, if I voted someone for disagreeing with their ideas, I would have voted pedescribe at least once this game. (Actually, if not for him turning up dead, I probably would have. Which is why if we have a vig, I can't fault him/her for taking him out. As a vig, I probably would have.) But I didn't. The first time I called him out on a crazy idea, I viewed it as little more than a datapoint. The second time I called him out, DBI was a better candidate that Day. Because I've played with pedescribe and have been a spoiled observer in the Terminator game which he ran. And have been spoiled in other games he's played. pedescribe comes up with crazy shit all the time. His "we should kill townies" was really what got to me, though. The "ped coming up with a crazy idea" thing was what made it less scummy overall than DBI, but not by much. Because killing townies is the surest way for town to lose as long as other parties are out there. But I didn't vote him. I'm voting you because look scummy. And no one else right now looks as scummy to me as you. And I find your claim too convenient as I've explained above.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 22:39:57 GMT -5
NETA: Well, I guess I didn't explain finding your claim too convient "above". But I did mention it somewhere up-thread.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 4, 2009 22:41:05 GMT -5
Does anyone else see this as strange or is it just my paranoid self?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 22:43:14 GMT -5
Does anyone else see this as strange or is it just my paranoid self? Meh. I see it consistent with his general throwing out of weird theories. It's been a large part of his playstyle this whole game. Nothing really noteworthy, IMO.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 4, 2009 22:55:01 GMT -5
Well then, I will take my paranoia off to bed and we will cuddle and hopefully have good dreams.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 23:08:36 GMT -5
Day 4: Not much here.
To his credit, he was the second to point out "my scum kills" slip by DBI. (cookies was the first.) And pedescribe apparently missed it even in the post he quoted where DBI said it. But unlike others who voted for DBI at the point, Ed held off. However, he did vote DBI when DBI was tied with ped. (At that point, cookies, DBI, and chucara in that order had their votes on ped). In all honesty, with a slip like the "my scum kills" thing being the elephant in the room, this is only a slightly town-leaning leaning action. It could just as well be pro-scum in that it might be Ed trying to by himself credit. After all, when he pointed out the slip after cookies, the only one voting for DBI at the time was ped, our #2 choice that Day. I think Ed wanted to see how the wind would blow before voting one or the other. Even though ped was tied, one of those votes was the godfather, who do to everything that transpired that Day, would have probably swung the next Day had ped been lynched. So at this point, DBI was a safe bus choice, because she wasn't going to make it to end game anyway.
Night 4:
One noteworthy point. In reply 39, he suggests that DBI may have sacrificed herself to save ped due to ped's scum power being better. He emphasizes that he's not smudging anyone (and reemphasizes this in 42), but just wants to open it up for discussion. This point itself would be a null tell, especially since it's consistent with him throwing out all sorts of theories about how the game works, but it also fits with perfect knowledge.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 23:10:47 GMT -5
Well then, I will take my paranoia off to bed and we will cuddle and hopefully have good dreams. I'll be going to bed soon as well. I don't have any paranoia to sleep with though. And my gf is in the city. So it's just going to be me.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 4, 2009 23:22:12 GMT -5
Sorry I've been MIA. We were visiting my mom in the mountains, and when the power was on, the wireless dsl connection was being a bitch. Catching up now.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 4, 2009 23:33:37 GMT -5
One more thing I thought of while brushing my teeth:
Rugger's swing away from a DBI lynch on Day 1 also isn't as gutsy as it first seems. After all, the godfather investigates as town. So the (likely) only way to find out her true alignment is upon death. So it's not as if he had to worry about an investigator looking at DBI and finding scum there. It was still a gamble if Rugger is scum, but not as dangerous if DBI had been able to be outed as such.
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Post by special on Jan 5, 2009 0:24:55 GMT -5
If I'm going to be required to only post things that are completely accurate, I won't be able to say very much at all. I'm trying to generate ideas, think out loud, start conversations, find Scum. I feel as if every word I say is being dissected now and looked at as a reason to vote for me. I guess the point is that I don't agree with the concept of "Well, Special Ed is just wrong and has bad ideas that I don't agree with, so he must be Scum." I really hope you're not accusing me of this. I'm not voting you because I disagree with any of your ideas. I'm voting you because I think you're likely scum. And, to be honest, I also want to see if the inconclusive means anything. The two inconclusives are gotten are on people I don't have a strong townie feel from. If you are scum, things will look bad for chucara. Because I know I can get a townie read from townies. I don't know what you or chucara are. I mean, if I voted someone for disagreeing with their ideas, I would have voted pedescribe at least once this game. (Actually, if not for him turning up dead, I probably would have. Which is why if we have a vig, I can't fault him/her for taking him out. As a vig, I probably would have.) But I didn't. The first time I called him out on a crazy idea, I viewed it as little more than a datapoint. The second time I called him out, DBI was a better candidate that Day. Because I've played with pedescribe and have been a spoiled observer in the Terminator game which he ran. And have been spoiled in other games he's played. pedescribe comes up with crazy shit all the time. His "we should kill townies" was really what got to me, though. The "ped coming up with a crazy idea" thing was what made it less scummy overall than DBI, but not by much. Because killing townies is the surest way for town to lose as long as other parties are out there. But I didn't vote him. I'm voting you because look scummy. And no one else right now looks as scummy to me as you. And I find your claim too convenient as I've explained above. That wasn't directed at you. It was more in response to Kat in 5.212 I don't mind your more in depth analysis. I see you bringing up what I've done, and there is some stuff that looks anti-town, I'll grant that, but I've still done it all in my best attempt to help town. I do wish you'd be analyzing someone I think might actually turn up as Scum like Santo or Almost, but it's difficult to argue with your approach. I just don't like the faux vote I got from Kat for suggesting that it's possible that the spinies might be bombs and that someone might hide having been spinied. I didn't say I thought it was accurate, all I said it that is IS possible, and I stand by that. It's possible. I doubt it's accurate. I feel that vote is undeserved as I was only volunteering to vote last if we decided to vote that way because I cannot die today.
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Post by Almost Human on Jan 5, 2009 3:41:33 GMT -5
I do think DBI's "my scum" slip was intentional though. Rysto pointed out it was typical for scum to ask a question they already knew the answer to. As DBI obviously did know the answer to that question, I'd have expected her to word it correctly. After all if she wanted to say something to earn her townie points surely she'd have been a bit more careful. Maybe i'm giving her too much credit but I do think it was intentional. To what end? Regardless of what side you think I'm on I think you'll agree that if DBI hadn't been lynched yesterDay she'd have almost certainly been lynched toDay. There was also a pretty good chance she'd have been lynched yesterDay whether she'd made that slip or not so why not make sure she gave her scum buddies some townie cred in the process? And no, I don't have a theory on who she was trying to give the cred to. I originally thought Mr Special but on reread I'm less certain. By the way. If I understand correctly, once we've finished faux voting the plan is to only vote/unvote for the lynch leader to avoid confusion? If I end up being the leader (and I'd really much rather I wasn't!) why not just let me make the final vote as long as it isn't a hammer? Of course you'd have to trust me to do so lol. So I guess you could ask Mr Special to be the vote before me. If he's telling the truth about his immunity toDay he'll be fine if the spiney's a bomb. I'm really not scum. I've had a few odd ideas admittedly but surely that's what vanilla town does - put forward their ideas, however strange, because power roles are more likely to be cautious. Not that it probably makes a lot of difference other than it's cool but my role name is Luigi, Mario's brother.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 5, 2009 8:23:02 GMT -5
Chucara, what did you do last Night? You remind me of JS
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Post by Nanook on Jan 5, 2009 10:57:39 GMT -5
It's kind of funny to compare this game to the dope game. The days over there are flying by, and the days here are lasting and lasting. Neither is really better or worse than the other, but it is an interesting contrast.
I don't have a problem with posting my pm, but since there seem to be some objections I'll hold off.
Maybe my claim was a mistake, and maybe not. It does seem though that people aren't really reading what I wrote. I received very stong indications that someone targeted me and failed earlier in the game. If that had not happened, I almost certainly would not have claimed Today, even with everything else that has happened. Admittedly, considering this game and Idle in general, it may be that I'm misreading or misundertanding the information I received, but that's the risk I choose to take.
Not necessarily AH. For me personally at least, it's the opposite. My reaction on seeing my role in this game was basically "Sweet, I can go balls to the wall with no real fear, since I'll have a role claim to fall back on if I get in trouble!" Pedescribe is similar, he loves to pull wacky ideas when he knows he can survive them. I can see why you would think what you do though, since there's this idea that power roles will lay low in order to avoid getting attention from the scum, but it just doesn't seem to work that way in practice.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Jan 5, 2009 11:09:13 GMT -5
Crap.. Can someone possibly take over the vote count, I just got swarmed at work and I'm not sure how much I can participate. I'll figure out how big the load is as soon as possible.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 5, 2009 11:12:43 GMT -5
Not necessarily AH. For me personally at least, it's the opposite. My reaction on seeing my role in this game was basically "Sweet, I can go balls to the wall with no real fear, since I'll have a role claim to fall back on if I get in trouble!" Pedescribe is similar, he loves to pull wacky ideas when he knows he can survive them. I can see why you would think what you do though, since there's this idea that power roles will lay low in order to avoid getting attention from the scum, but it just doesn't seem to work that way in practice. I think it all depends on the player. The really strange thing now is that I remember having this discussion with Almost Human on FB once. And I'm sure she didn't agree with me saying that I felt players with power roles tend to play more carefull... but not 100% sure. Did you change your mind on the subject Almost Human and is it okay to metagame with a quote from FB in this game??
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 5, 2009 11:43:00 GMT -5
Crap.. Can someone possibly take over the vote count, I just got swarmed at work and I'm not sure how much I can participate. I'll figure out how big the load is as soon as possible. Well, at this point it doesn't matter too much. We really should close out the fauxvoting 24 hours before Day end anyway (which means we have about 6 hours left). That will give us plenty of time to get real votes on the target and then have enough real voters to prevent the lynch from being stopped. Becuase we can't start unvoting until we have enough votes on the lynchee.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Jan 5, 2009 14:13:12 GMT -5
Well, I'm caught up. I'm still confused about the voting issue, though, but I think we'll work that out tomorrow. Not sure why people have placed blue votes even when it was explicitly stated that wasn't a good idea yet.
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 5, 2009 14:26:04 GMT -5
I'm still very worried that we might lose a lynch if we choose Special under the water. I can't say the votes for him are wrong - but I am worried and would like very much if we could lynch ANYONE (well, yeah - not anyone - but you get the meaning) else toDay
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 5, 2009 16:33:36 GMT -5
I think it all depends on the player. The really strange thing now is that I remember having this discussion with Almost Human on FB once. And I'm sure she didn't agree with me saying that I felt players with power roles tend to play more carefull... but not 100% sure. Did you change your mind on the subject Almost Human and is it okay to metagame with a quote from FB in this game?? It isn't about this game, is it? If not, I don't see why not.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 5, 2009 17:00:06 GMT -5
I'm still very worried that we might lose a lynch if we choose Special under the water. I can't say the votes for him are wrong - but I am worried and would like very much if we could lynch ANYONE (well, yeah - not anyone - but you get the meaning) else toDay Well, at this moment I don't really agree with the overall case against Zeriel. While I see you're argument, I think it's a difference in play strategy by Zeriel than a tell, and not just because story didn't find anything suspicious in it. (Though, I'll concede that I may have some literal "confirmation bias" coloring my view.) If you can present more examples of pro-scum actions to bolster your case, I'm open to the idea, though I don't know if there's really enough time left in the Day to do so. I mean, I don't see how his actions are any less scummy than Rugger actually stopping the lynch when it was going to happen. Rugger not only put tabby over the top, he urged other people not to vote for DBI. Now why I still don't see Special Ed as a bad choice, well it's mainly because I don't believe his claim at all. I don't even think he has it as a scum power. First of all, you at least don't disagree with him being a viable lynch candidate in general, so I won't rehash anything there. But I do want to throw out one thing for the game in general: A vanilla with the automatic power to stop his own lynch is inherently an anti-town power. Think about it. Town trades numbers for information, while scum trades information for numbers. The lynch is a pro-town mechanism. Now it can be, and generally is, pro-town for there to be a mechanism whereby a townie power (e.g. the Mayor role, whether permanent or transitory) can forestall a lynch. But that power is usually a) optional to use and b) designed to be used on anybody. I can also see a town power role being given an ability to stop their own lynch for any reason if they have a power that is useful, quirky, or something similar. But a vanilla? A vanilla's purpose is to do their townie best to root out town enemies and die when their time comes. A vanilla should never be unlynchable. Unnightkillable, sure. That's a pro-town power, because it keeps a townie alive when there is little to be gained from their death other than confirmation. But unlynchable? It is anti-town to stop the town's wishes on a whole without damn good reason, and saving a vanilla is not a damn good reason. We've already seen one next-to-useless power in this game. Our blocker who couldn't stop night kills. A role like that ranks slightly better than vanilla town only if the townie in question uses it when they are sure they are blocking anti-town actions. If the townie in question uses it for any other reason, they are pretty much worse than vanilla. I don't even know if they'd rank as high as a vanilla miller would, because at the least the miller can't hurt anyone else. Really, if Special Ed is telling the truth, the townie thing to do would be to ask that Idle let him be lynched. That gives us data points. And yes, it'll make me look bad should he come up town. I'm willing to accept the heat for it. Because at least I'll know for my own role that the inconclusives can include town. And town will know that Special Ed's interactions have been townie-motivated, if not always pro-town in result. Now, I can see scum having a lynch immunity. It's very pro-scum. And it's also convenient how his "immunity" isn't revealed until after I faux-vote him. I don't believe he's town. And I don't believe even as scum he has the power he claims to. And really, if he's telling the truth, we've been given a horrible role. I think the only worst thing would be an lynch-resistant vanilla miller. But I'm open to convincing. I'll hold off my vote until I go to bed, which is about another 6 hours or so. I think it's apparent that ed is the faux-vote leader right now anyway, so unless you convince me and the others, we should make him are lynchee regardless, because should we vote someone else, we have to give that person time to claim, and time is something we don't have a lot of right now. Especially with this crazy mechanic.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 5, 2009 17:11:23 GMT -5
Oh, and I just want to add that the automatically lynch-resistant vanilla/miller would make for a great gastard town role.
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Post by special on Jan 5, 2009 17:13:35 GMT -5
Now why I still don't see Special Ed as a bad choice, well it's mainly because I don't believe his claim at all. I don't even think he has it as a scum power. First of all, you at least don't disagree with him being a viable lynch candidate in general, so I won't rehash anything there. But I do want to throw out one thing for the game in general: A vanilla with the automatic power to stop his own lynch is inherently an anti-town power. It's not like I picked this power. I can't help it if it's anti-town, though I'm assuming tomorrow it turns more into a Scotsman type role, which is pro-town. I'd have to assume that Scum won't even try to lynch me toNight. And Town can lynch me again toMorrow, I think I'll live through it, though it would suck if it's a bodyguard that get's taken out. Is there a Cheep with an odd role message? Really, if Special Ed is telling the truth, the townie thing to do would be to ask that Idle let him be lynched. My power cannot be changed in any way and is a passive power. That is, I don't do anything to activate it. It just happens.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 5, 2009 17:16:35 GMT -5
Oh, and I just want to add that the automatically lynch-resistant vanilla/miller would make for a great gastard town role. We thought about it.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 5, 2009 17:22:24 GMT -5
Ed, you're freaking me out. I've been considering attempting to defend you, because I think we've spent too much time on you today, and I used to think there were better targets.
Used to.
I can't tell what the hell you're trying to claim now. Would you post your PM, please? The sooner the better.
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