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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 12:57:58 GMT -5
I took a whack at the JSP. 3 masons (KidV, Rysto, NAF), 7.5 1 alignment investigator (Hoopy), 4 1 doctor (Nanook), 3 1 limited roleblocker (Pedescribe), 1.5 1 limited vig (Bufftabby), 1.5 1 jack of all trades (Mhaye), 2.5 1 politician (FCOD), 1.5 5 vanilla (Mitey, Kat, Story, Peeker, Shaggy), 5 Town total: 26.5 1 godfather (DBI), 7 1 scum (Santo), 4.5 1 serial killer (Chucara), 3 1 survivor (Mr Ed), 0 1 Jester (mmouse9799), 0 Anti-town total: 14.5 2 more basic Scum, a mad bomber that I'm pointing at 5, and the rest vanilla Town among TL, AH, Zeriel, Sinjin, Blockey, and Cookies would put Town points at 29.5, and Scum points at 28.5. YMMV regarding point values for the roles, and even if we agree on points there's obviously other ways to make the points line up. Ya'll started thinking I was sending down the gospel the last time I started making lists like this, so I wish to emphasize that this is just a little something to look at , maybe give us a very vague idea where we're at.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Jan 7, 2009 14:07:27 GMT -5
You don't know his wincon.
Put yourself in a SK's shoes. You're telling me there's no possibility you'd lie to get the town to leave you alive for just a few extra days, killing everybody but the last person you'd need to kill, and then snipe them on the last Night? Gimme a break.
[oog rant]Good, gawd, I could use a beer right now. Six more days at a desk job, then I get to start blowing shit up again. I felt so great over the break, and now my neck hurts and my eyeballs are burning again, as per usual. I hate desk jobs so much. In other news, I did some tackling drills last night in the gym, good Og that felt good![/oogr]
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 7, 2009 14:41:46 GMT -5
You don't know his wincon. Put yourself in a SK's shoes. You're telling me there's no possibility you'd lie to get the town to leave you alive for just a few extra days, killing everybody but the last person you'd need to kill, and then snipe them on the last Night? Gimme a break. And why would Chuc team up with you? To see scum win? Great price for him... or not! [oog rant]Good, gawd, I could use a beer right now. Six more days at a desk job, then I get to start blowing shit up again. I felt so great over the break, and now my neck hurts and my eyeballs are burning again, as per usual. I hate desk jobs so much. In other news, I did some tackling drills last night in the gym, good Og that felt good![/oogr] If you were just any scum I would say:"and so what" - but you happen to be the most eloquent scum I have ever meet (it's a lie - but when I see your name I can't help to get this image in my head: ). So for now I'll say: Nice to hear
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 14:51:43 GMT -5
You don't know his wincon. Put yourself in a SK's shoes. You're telling me there's no possibility you'd lie to get the town to leave you alive for just a few extra days, killing everybody but the last person you'd need to kill, and then snipe them on the last Night? Gimme a break. Well of course he could be lying. Of course we don't know his win con. That's how an endgame works, all sides jockeying for position and playing the angles to guarantee that their side wins, even if it means temporarily aiding the enemy. Chucara has very little to gain from helping scum. Because if he screws town, town lynches him and he loses out right. If he screws scum over, well scum might be able to night kill him, but then they let the town power roles live longer and buy town half-a-mislynch. So they are unlikely to kill him until it is in their best interest. This is one reason why PFK's are frequently a net bonus to the town the side. SK's are typically a net bonus to scum, but only as long as they stay hidden. Now that he's exposed, the only chance he has of winning this game is to play with town. We don't have a lot of mislynches to play with and he can use that to his advantage.
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Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
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Post by Santo Rugger on Jan 7, 2009 15:23:50 GMT -5
And why would Chuc team up with you? To see scum win? Great price for him... or not![/quote] Or to see himself win. I've got a pretty good idea of his actual wincon. [oog rant]Good, gawd, I could use a beer right now. Six more days at a desk job, then I get to start blowing shit up again. I felt so great over the break, and now my neck hurts and my eyeballs are burning again, as per usual. I hate desk jobs so much. In other news, I did some tackling drills last night in the gym, good Og that felt good![/oogr] If you were just any scum I would say:"and so what" - but you happen to be the most eloquent scum I have ever meet (it's a lie - but when I see your name I can't help to get this image in my head: ). So for now I'll say: Nice to hear [/quote] Thanks, I think?
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 15:25:01 GMT -5
You don't know his wincon. Put yourself in a SK's shoes. You're telling me there's no possibility you'd lie to get the town to leave you alive for just a few extra days, killing everybody but the last person you'd need to kill, and then snipe them on the last Night? Gimme a break. Doesn't matter. Whether he's truly thrown in with Town, or is just biding his time, he's in a position where he needs to appear Town. I'm trusting him to work with us because he knows that we'll be forced to lynch him the instant he stops. I'm done arguing this now... anybody wanna talk about who we're going to lynch Tomorrow, assuming Chucara is willing and able to take care of our little Santo problem?
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 15:29:11 GMT -5
I'd specifically like to hear from TotalLost, Almost Human, Zeriel, Sinjin, Blockey, and Cookies (and Nanook to a lesser extent)... you guys are the ones on the line, and several of you are among the quietest in the game. This is where you all need to be making and refuting cases, so that those of us that are confirmed can evaluate you and vote in a block.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 7, 2009 15:57:50 GMT -5
I'd specifically like to hear from TotalLost, Almost Human, Zeriel, Sinjin, Blockey, and Cookies (and Nanook to a lesser extent)... you guys are the ones on the line, and several of you are among the quietest in the game. This is where you all need to be making and refuting cases, so that those of us that are confirmed can evaluate you and vote in a block. [/quote I voted Zeriel because I though he was scummy for trying to safe DBI. I still see Almost Human as town - because of the vanilla-ness to her posts and he first saying that she hada spiny on her beck I get a really townie feel from DSinjin and MisteyBBut If we still need to get one more scum - I would look at Zeriel and maybe MisteyB for the way he never took "responsibility" for the vote on Shaggy. He just seemed to go "okay - let's vote Shaggy - and I hope I got it right"
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 16:23:59 GMT -5
I voted Zeriel because I though he was scummy for trying to safe DBI. I still see Almost Human as town - because of the vanilla-ness to her posts and he first saying that she hada spiny on her beck I get a really townie feel from DSinjin and MisteyBBut If we still need to get one more scum - I would look at Zeriel and maybe MisteyB for the way he never took "responsibility" for the vote on Shaggy. He just seemed to go "okay - let's vote Shaggy - and I hope I got it right" Please elaborate - why, exactly, are you getting a "townie" feel from Sinjin and Blockey? Why do you think there's only one scum left?
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 7, 2009 16:40:21 GMT -5
I voted Zeriel because I though he was scummy for trying to safe DBI. I still see Almost Human as town - because of the vanilla-ness to her posts and he first saying that she hada spiny on her beck I get a really townie feel from DSinjin and MisteyBBut If we still need to get one more scum - I would look at Zeriel and maybe MisteyB for the way he never took "responsibility" for the vote on Shaggy. He just seemed to go "okay - let's vote Shaggy - and I hope I got it right" Please elaborate - why, exactly, are you getting a "townie" feel from Sinjin and Blockey? Why do you think there's only one scum left? Sinjin has been all over me from Day 1 - I don't think a scum would do that. A scum would (I think) try to place a bit of suspicious here and there. The same for the MisterB - but I'm not so sure after the vote on Shaggy. I'm sorry - but I did have a very swamped day at work - I really wanted to look more at Zeriel but I didn't have the time. Sorry
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 17:38:59 GMT -5
I'm done arguing this now... anybody wanna talk about who we're going to lynch Tomorrow, assuming Chucara is willing and able to take care of our little Santo problem? I'll try to participate a bit if I have time, but understand that with me being claimed, I don't want to tip my hand on who I plan to investigate, so I really don't want to say too much at night.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 17:59:46 GMT -5
Sinjin has been all over me from Day 1 - I don't think a scum would do that. A scum would (I think) try to place a bit of suspicious here and there. Actually, you're point is valid looking at the way our two outed scum have acted so far. Both were launching attacks left and right. But in Rugger's case, he was pretty much playing the way he always plays. I don't know if we extend this to all scum. There are at least two scum remaining, and a decent chance at three. Throw a bomber into the mix and assume that Nanook is legit (a reasonable assumption at this point, since we've seen a character with a potential one-shot cop and a one-shot doc, and with a standard cop we likely have a standard doc, and that doc hasn't been counterclaimed), and we have 2, maybe 3, townies in the uncofirmed pile. Now it's possible Nanook is lying, but that will come out soon enough, since I highly doubt we don't have a doc. And our doc, if nanook isn't it, has wisely held off on claiming. There is no reason to at this point. (Really, the only reason to claim other than lynch pressure would be after all confirmed are dead.) Now what I don't like about Nanook's claim, is that even an exposed Doc usually shouldn't claim. Because the worst thing that happens is that scum target you. But if you claim, scum target you anyway and you out yourself to everybody. If you come under lynch pressure, sure it's good to claim. But we didn't need a confirmed Doctor, at least not yet. We just needed a large enough block to offset any potential scum manipulation, because the way we set it up, as long as everyone played by the same game, manipulations would be obvious. (Yes, don't think you guys get a free pass for your little one-offs in the Day after we said we weren't going to do that.) I mean, barring something extra occurring, I'm unlikely to make it to Day 7. I might have lasted longer if the scum had to track down the doctor first. Now it comes down to a matter of WIFOM tonight, and if Nanook is dead toMorrow, I'll no doubt be next.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 7, 2009 19:56:50 GMT -5
I'm overdue for some serious analysis. Mea Culpa Between the SDMB game and trying to catch up at work after everyone was gone for Holiday break, time has been short. I will make it up to you all this evening, though.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 21:07:30 GMT -5
(Yes, don't think you guys get a free pass for your little one-offs in the Day after we said we weren't going to do that.) I just double checked. The only one who did this was Mitey. So she just gets a virtual smack for doing so, since she's town. The other one-off happened before the vote gambit we did was arranged, so Total Lost gets excused for that.
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Post by Zeriel on Jan 8, 2009 9:02:59 GMT -5
I voted Zeriel because I though he was scummy for trying to safe DBI. I still see Almost Human as town - because of the vanilla-ness to her posts and he first saying that she hada spiny on her beck I get a really townie feel from DSinjin and MisteyBI suppose that's fair because you're claiming I totally misunderstood your little bit of byplay with "town wins when all town are dead". But you've got your facts backwards a bit--it was day one, remember? I was holding my vote off of Buff because I wanted her to claim fully, and I thought her partial claim was sounding really unkosher. I had no similar thoughts on DBI being scummy at the time, and I wasn't as thrilled with the case on her. My vote was ultimately motivated by my desire to avoid the kind of random last-minute vote train that took me out in Marvel, which was a real fear given she seemed to be holding off until the absolute last minute to claim. Seemed to me that was the least pro-town action of day one, namely, partially claiming and then holding off until town had no time to make a serious thoughtful decision. I'd forgotten your own off-DBI-on-DBI tango right after my buff vote and the horror of the mmouse PFK claim, though.
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Post by Zeriel on Jan 8, 2009 9:06:07 GMT -5
Sinjin has been all over me from Day 1 - I don't think a scum would do that. A scum would (I think) try to place a bit of suspicious here and there. I'd also like to point out that this is demonstrably not true--we usually get scum or PFKs playing to hound people who aren't really the vote leaders but who're suspicious enough that it seems reasonable to suspect them. Best example that comes to mind is NAF's hounding of my ass through most of Sekham--we assume townies are consistent, as you're doing here, and it's simply not warranted to assume all those who are consistent are townies.
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Post by sinjin on Jan 8, 2009 10:05:07 GMT -5
So anybody notice that the Up in the Air board is titled woosh and there is another board in the mushroom kingdom with the name THE EVIL CASTLE.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 8, 2009 10:31:06 GMT -5
Sinjin has been all over me from Day 1 - I don't think a scum would do that. A scum would (I think) try to place a bit of suspicious here and there. I'd also like to point out that this is demonstrably not true--we usually get scum or PFKs playing to hound people who aren't really the vote leaders but who're suspicious enough that it seems reasonable to suspect them. Best example that comes to mind is NAF's hounding of my ass through most of Sekham--we assume townies are consistent, as you're doing here, and it's simply not warranted to assume all those who are consistent are townies. I'm sorry - I should know better. Never ever say "scum would not do that".
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 8, 2009 10:56:36 GMT -5
So anybody notice that the Up in the Air board is titled woosh and there is another board in the mushroom kingdom with the name THE EVIL CASTLE. I'm not sure how I feel about the forum description of the THE EVIL CASTLE, though. "Nearing the end, the game shifts to be pure evil."
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 8, 2009 11:23:51 GMT -5
I don't see the castle forum....maybe I'm dead!
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 8, 2009 11:31:59 GMT -5
I don't see the castle forum....maybe I'm dead! It's inside the Mushroom Kingdom
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 8, 2009 11:37:32 GMT -5
I don't see the castle forum....maybe I'm dead! It's inside the Mushroom Kingdom Laugh it up...I see it now
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 8, 2009 13:20:57 GMT -5
Something is concerning me here. Why did Santo and Chucara lie down so easily? I have never seen a Scum or PFK give themselves up so easily unless they have something to gain by being killed.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 8, 2009 13:42:19 GMT -5
As soon as they both opened their non-townie little mouths I have been ignoring pretty much anything that they've said, from an analysis and strategy perspective (aside from noting their alleged alignments, of course).
I agree that there is likely at least one gambit pay-off lurking in there, but what can we do about it? The most we can do is try to be aware of trying not to do what Scum or PFK want them to do, but by outing themselves they just poured WIFOM all over that. Best to just ignore them.
I'm more inclined to concentrate on the shrinking stack of unknowns. I know I'm in that stack for everyone else.
I am going to do a deep dive on Almost Human and see what I come up with. I promised this last night, I know, but that didn't materialize for me.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 8, 2009 13:42:50 GMT -5
They both were as good as outed, from my perspective - When Ed confessed to 3rd party, the "inconclusive" result on Chucara became fairly damning, forcing his gambit for cooperation. On Santos part, I suspect he felt the case I was building was as good as I felt it was, and figured that if he had a good chance to go down anyway, he'd bid for help from Chucara. Not a bad play, by any measure, we're just lucky that Chucara doesn't appear to subscribe to the "non-Town is non-Town" theory.
None of which rules out the possibility that they're on the same team, I suppose, but it's a logical explanation for why they both reacted the way they did.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 8, 2009 13:44:05 GMT -5
what Scum or PFK want us to do, I meant.
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Post by Almost Human on Jan 8, 2009 13:57:28 GMT -5
I am going to do a deep dive on Almost Human and see what I come up with. I promised this last night, I know, but that didn't materialize for me. (snipped) I'm sorry but that sentence turned me on a little. But yes, please do take a look. As for who else apart from santo and chuc are scum or pfk or whatever I'm pretty flummoxed. I'm going to have a reread of zeriel to see what I think of Total's suspicions about him. Also Mister Blockey because I'd forgotten he was playing till someone mentioned him earlier. I'll try and get my post in before Night ends to be on the safe side.
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Post by Almost Human on Jan 8, 2009 15:53:26 GMT -5
OK, so I haven't had time to check out zeriel but I've looked through mister blockey's posts and can't see anything scumworthy at all.
Granted he hasn't posted much but he cited RL issues at the beginning of the game which I'd forgotten about till I reread. The points he does make, I can't see any particular scum motivation for and he's the one who pointed out santo's steering the voting away from DBI and towards bufftabby on Day 1.
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