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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 6, 2009 19:14:08 GMT -5
After much confusion, claims, and general bastardness...everyone lynched Mr Special Ed.
Poor Mr Special Ed. Never lasts very long in these games.
Mr Special Ed..AKA LINK, A PFK Survivor.....didn't get to the end in this one either. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is now Night. Feel free to talk strategy and other stuff, but remember, you are NOT allowed to role claim at Night.
Everyone with a Night action, please get it in BEFORE THURSDAY AT 3 PM.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 6, 2009 19:25:54 GMT -5
Poor Mr Special Ed. Never lasts very long in these games. Mr Special Ed...didn't get to the end in this one either.Harsh, Idle. Way harsh.
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Post by Zeriel on Jan 6, 2009 19:26:24 GMT -5
Very harsh.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 6, 2009 19:29:36 GMT -5
Yeah, thats just mean!
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Post by special on Jan 6, 2009 19:37:37 GMT -5
It's OK. I just mod killed him in my game
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 6, 2009 19:39:49 GMT -5
I think chucara should kill Rugger toNight.[/b]
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Post by sinjin on Jan 6, 2009 19:51:38 GMT -5
I think chucara should kill Rugger toNight. [/b][/quote]I agree. I like this idea way better than a Nanook/protect/Chucara/kill scheme. And not only because I was the proposed goat.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 6, 2009 19:51:44 GMT -5
Well, I think it's pretty much confirmed that chucara is telling the truth. I can't investigate those who aren't from this world. It's quite possible we have another PFK out there, especially since a survivor is a net plus for town and a jester is pretty much a wash.
Idle, you need to update Rysto in the list, you still have him alive[/color]
All right, the breakdown of those remaining:
The Mason ------------- 2. KidV
The confirmed town by Hoopy the Detective Group --------------------------------------------------------------- 14. Hoopy Frood 4. MiteyMouse 6. Kat
The Doctor ----------------------- 23. Nanook
The (alignment probably confirmed by the Detective) PFK Serial Killer --------------------------------------------------------------------- 10. Chucara
The Bastard-crusted Bastard-filled Bastard Scum -------------------------------------------------------- 24. Santo Rugger
The Unknowns ------------------ 3. Total Lost 5. Zeriel 13. sinjin 15. Almost Human 18. misterblockey 21. Cookies
As it sits, we have way too many unknowns and not enough mislynches to play with. This is a problem. I hope some of you hidden townies have a trick up your sleeve, because even if I do survive tomorrow, I still can only narrow the pool by one. And don't expect me to live another Day beyond that. Based on the numbers it's a safe bet there are at least two-antitown parties remaining in that field. I can see there being two scum, or two scum and another PFK. Heck, I could see three scum, even. Though, I think that might just be overpowering for scum based on the fairly weak-powered game we seem to be playing. Fortunately, the bomber is also a threat to scum if he exists.
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Post by MiteyMouse on Jan 6, 2009 20:17:45 GMT -5
I agree on Chucara taking out Santo!
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 6, 2009 20:26:54 GMT -5
Yes, Chucara to target Rugger, please oh pretty please dear SK. I'll be your best friend.
Also, would you mind going over your current wincon again? Has yours been rotating? If there's a way to include you in a Town win, I'd like to find it, but I'm a little unclear how yours works.
In other news, I'm flipflopping on AH again. With confirmation that Santo is scum, that solidifies what I think I see in the Day Four Mushroom Kingdom vote pattern.
Nanook, why did you feel the case against Rugger was so weak? I thought it was pretty strong.
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Death By Irony
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Post by Death By Irony on Jan 6, 2009 22:00:46 GMT -5
Darn it, I knew I shouldn't have unstabbed Pygmyrugger's face on the scum board.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 6, 2009 22:29:29 GMT -5
wtf DBI?
I have no problem with Chucara killing the professed scummy Rugger, if he is indeed willing and able.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 6, 2009 22:39:01 GMT -5
In other news, I'm flipflopping on AH again. With confirmation that Santo is scum, that solidifies what I think I see in the Day Four Mushroom Kingdom vote pattern. Do you want to go over what exactly you see in the case again. It's my turn to be too lazy to dig.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 6, 2009 22:39:45 GMT -5
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Post by sinjin on Jan 6, 2009 22:46:18 GMT -5
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 1:07:51 GMT -5
Here's D4MK again, this time with color.
I'll get back to this.
The first pings I really got off AH were during Night Three. Zeriel asked in n3.15 if Idle had made any effort to ensure that scum were evenly distributed, and Idle said no, the split was completely random. In n3.28, AH mused on whether the split scum could talk. Idles response in the next post was "All (if any) scum can talk on the scum boards still, yes." AH then posited the dichotomy that either there were no scum at all, or they were all on one side or the other. We proceeded to go around on that until the end of the thread, and as I've said, it read to me like one of those "I already know the answer to this" questions.
The Day Four vote record is above, and looks very bad for her, given that the Shaggy case is weak, and Santo is admitted scum and has already shown a propensity for "saving" votes.
So my case against her is 1) the original statement that looked weird, 2) her use of Storytellers suspicion of Nanook (at a time when said suspicion had already been addressed and dismissed) in a seriously weak case, and 3) Santos acting to her benefit.
Now, allow me to poke holes in it.
1) She chased DBI harder than is really necessary, if you're assuming she did that for Town cred. 2) If she needed a convenient target to move some heat on to, Shaggy makes no sense while Totallost is already drawing heat. * 3) I'd already mentioned their relation in the D4 vote record, so scum were well aware of what Santos vote that day looked like, well before he claimed. I think they'd have to be truly desperate to hang AH out to dry like that, and I'm not sure we've got them on the ropes yet. 4) Like I said, vibes.
* counter-rebuttal: you could posit that TL is scum as well. The problem with this is TLs vote record. She chased DBI harder than AH.
**********************************
So, what does D4MK look like if AH isn't scum? A buncha crap, thats what. With the information we have at this time, I don't see much else useful in there, in terms of the vote record.
And I don't know how I feel about AH.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Jan 7, 2009 2:53:58 GMT -5
My win condition is pretty simple: kill everyone, including the cat and the kitchen sink.
I did get a PM stating that if I should happen to kill all scum, I'd still lose as town would win before me.
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Total Ullz
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Post by Total Ullz on Jan 7, 2009 5:08:06 GMT -5
My win condition is pretty simple: kill everyone, including the cat and the kitchen sink. I did get a PM stating that if I should happen to kill all scum, I'd still lose as town would win before me. And now we don't need to wonder about the WC anymore - because from what Chuc is saying we win (no matter the current WC) when all scum is killed
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jan 7, 2009 6:00:52 GMT -5
If we're willing to believe our local resident Hannibal Lector, that is...
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Post by Almost Human on Jan 7, 2009 6:16:52 GMT -5
Well crap I wish I'd stayed up to see the last hour live!
santo's claim is just odd. The only pro scum benefits I can see to him claiming are a) to get chuc on his side and/or b) to make so much noise that we miss someone else.
To chuc: scum aren't going to let you live. You said you'd help town so I hope you still will. Looks to me like santo isn't the only scum left so you can safely off him tonight without losing. Yes, town won't let you live either seeing as how you need everyone dead to win but at least you'll get to play a bit longer, especially if we root out another scum toMorrow.
To KidV what can I say. Looking back I notice I only had 2 votes at the time I made my case against shaggy so I wasn't exactly in danger. I disagree about it being a bad case otherwise why on earth did other people vote after me? In retrospect, the contradictions shaggy made can possibly be put down to his playing style and lack of clarity but nevertheless he still made them. As to my ill-considered idea about whether scum could talk across worlds ..... it was a bad idea. Not a lot more I can say about that other than I wasn't trying to set up a dichotomy. I put forward the idea because it seemed odd scum would be able to talk while we were separated. I didn't claim it was fact. I did consider it wouldn't be as bad if the masons were allowed to talk too but I was hardly going to ask them to confirm it seeing as you and rysto were still unclaimed at the time.
And yes, I'm still happy to be lynched if that's the concensus tomorrow and santo's been disposed of. Of course if he's about I think we should get rid of him.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 7:49:50 GMT -5
Maybe she has a post-death power that allows her to make some kind of post(s) at night. Last night was obviously not a slip, after all. It's probabaly best to completely ignore her. She could be passing useful information to her fellow scum via these posts, but I don't think there's much to be gained by trying to figure out what that is since we don't even know if that's her game.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Jan 7, 2009 9:05:08 GMT -5
No, it's not useful information. Methinks she's mad at me for making the gambit I've made. She *stabbed* me on the scum boards, I think because I was hitting on her, I don't remember why exactly.
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Chucara
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Post by Chucara on Jan 7, 2009 9:05:44 GMT -5
See.. The thing is..I have absolutely no chance of winning this thing ever since Hoopy investigated me - even less now that Ed has turned up PFK. I could help you out Santo, but I wouldn't win anyway, and it'd just make the game longer. Right now I think I'll just play for ending the game as soon as possible so that I can play again Sorry man, unless much changes within a very short while, I'm afraid I'm going to have to kill you. I still wonder where the spikes are coming from though.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 9:34:51 GMT -5
See.. The thing is..I have absolutely no chance of winning this thing ever since Hoopy investigated me - even less now that Ed has turned up PFK. Yeah. Sorry about that...sort of. I really was aiming to confirm you as town on night 3. After getting only one town result and two inconclusives I was rather frustrated since I hadn't truly confirmed anyone as long as the godfather was still alive. When the godfather was exposed, and I got another town reading, I then saw a decent case for Special Ed being scum and pursued it. I hadn't expected that I would have hit upon two players not from the SMB universe when I investigated. And clearly Ed wasn't scum. So from what transpired toDay, my pursuit of Ed gained town a lot of information. So it was a good thing, but it was for all the wrong reasons.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Jan 7, 2009 10:12:17 GMT -5
See.. The thing is..I have absolutely no chance of winning this thing ever since Hoopy investigated me - even less now that Ed has turned up PFK. I could help you out Santo, but I wouldn't win anyway, and it'd just make the game longer. Right now I think I'll just play for ending the game as soon as possible so that I can play again Sorry man, unless much changes within a very short while, I'm afraid I'm going to have to kill you. I still wonder where the spikes are coming from though. But you do have a chance of winning; or at least not losing to town, which is just as good. We're worried about the spineys, too, and we're pretty sure that's what's going to end the game. Like I said, if your win condition is cycling similarly to ours, I think both of us might still have a chance at this thing while the town is forced to hunt for the PFK spinester. It's a long shot, but it really is in both of our best interests to get rid of the cop and the doc. The game won't be any shorter if you don't accept my gambit, it will just preclude both of us from winning, and guarantee a win to the town or the spiney. If you hit spiney, it'll make the game last even longer.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 11:10:59 GMT -5
Okay, I can see the Doc argument, but how does Chucara really benefit from allowing me to get whacked?
He's said his win condition isn't cycling. He said he loses when all scum are dead. But the detective's job isn't to find scum, and I haven't been trying. I'm no longer a threat to Chucara, but I am still a threat to all other non-townies, including our spiny guy if he's out there. Which means if chucara want to play this for a win, I'm more useful to him alive then dead, because I can either narrow down who isn't our bomber, or I can find our bomber outright. Because I can pretty much guarantee that scum aren't going to take out the bomber until it's in their best interest to do so. So Chucara will find himself in a position where he may have to take out the bomber to win this thing, and I can help him with that. Especially since scum are unlikely to start killing from the unconfirmed pool. You guys provide him no benefit toward winning this thing. You'll want the doctor dead anyway to serve your own ends, so there's really no reason for him to target the Doc. I'm no threat to him anymore, and can actually help him, so there's no reason for him to target me. His best bet in this game is to either play nice with town, or start whacking the unconfirmeds. Pretty much any other play will guarantee he loses.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Jan 7, 2009 11:35:30 GMT -5
One more thing, it's probably in his best interest at this point to keep the doctor alive even. Becuase the doctor won't be protecting the unconfirmeds. He'll be protecting power roles and confirmed. It would be a bad move for a serial killer to take out confirmed towns at this point. And if we have one-shot docs or something, there's no way they'd waste it on the unconfirmed pool. He targets unconfirmed, he's pretty much guaranteed a kill, and he can operate as a town vig, because that's what a vig would do anyway. (And honestly, if not for my investigation, he would have been able to ride that claim for a while.) He targets anything else, he risks a non-kill, an outright lynch, or a possible loss to the bomber. And it's not as if he has to worry about pissing you guys off to much, because you are unlikely to kill him.
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Santo Rugger
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Post by Santo Rugger on Jan 7, 2009 11:58:39 GMT -5
You guys are going to lynch him regardless. You also have no idea what his win condition really is.
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 12:04:54 GMT -5
2. KidV - Hammer Brother, Mason 4. MiteyMouse - Mallow 6. Kat 14. Hoopy Frood - no name claim, Investigator
3. Total Lost - vanilla 5. Zeriel 13. Sinjin 15. Almost Human - vanilla 18. misterblockey 21. Cookies 23. Nanook - Toad, Doctor
24. Santo Rugger - Bastard-crusted Bastard-filled Bastard
10. Chucara - Samus, SK
******************************************
1. Pedescribe - Kamek, Roleblocker 7. Bufftabby - Yoshi, potential one shot Vig 8. Rysto - Hammer Brother, Mason 9. Storyteller - Princess Peach 12. peekercpa - Birdo 17. NAF Hammer Brother, Mason 19. MHaye Mario, potential one shot Doc, Vig, and Cop 20. FCoD Bowser, Politician 25. Shaggy, Koopa Troopa
11. DBI Wart, Godfather, Scum
16. Mr Special Ed - Link, Survivor 22. mmouse Donkey Kong Jr, Jester, PFK
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Post by KidVermicious on Jan 7, 2009 12:14:24 GMT -5
You guys are going to lynch him regardless. You also have no idea what his win condition really is. Nope. Not if his wincon doesn't prevent ours. Look, he's outed. If he starts killing confirmed Town, we lynch him. If he wanted to go down with a rope around his neck, he could have claimed Vig and waited for us to get around to him. He's still got options for trying to pull off a win, but none of them come in to play yet, ergo he's no threat to us yet, so why would we want to lynch him? The situation as it stands is stable. If he makes a play down the road, or we decide he's too much of a threat, well, that might get messy. But right now, he needs to be on our good side, and we'd like to be on his good side. A scum alliance doesn't offer him anything but a long neck, and not the beer filled kind.
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