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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Apr 15, 2008 18:25:19 GMT -5
Votecount:
Ryjae 5 (molefan1981, hawkeyeop, Blaster Master, Hoopy Frood, The Dark Smurf)
With 15 left, it takes... 7.5+1... 8.5 to start a countdown.
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Post by ryjae on Apr 15, 2008 18:54:13 GMT -5
Looking good for me... Okay not really. But my death will directly lead to 2 others demise so I'm cool with that. *tips hit hat to BlaM and Hawk*
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Apr 15, 2008 19:31:09 GMT -5
OK, somewhere in there I've apparently missed the automatic connection between if Ryjae turns up town BlaM must be scum Can someone enlighten me of that connection please.
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Post by ryjae on Apr 15, 2008 19:35:20 GMT -5
OK, somewhere in there I've apparently missed the automatic connection between if Ryjae turns up town BlaM must be scum Can someone enlighten me of that connection please. Oh I am certain in my own mind BlaM is scum. He is diverting attention quite well since he was close to being led to the chair. Rather than get defensive he went on the offensive. Good play, but irrelevant to his safety when I get chaired. With my death I'll bring vindication or at least I never planned on dying alone anyway. Rather take out who I believe are scum to further our win goal.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 15, 2008 20:00:10 GMT -5
OK, somewhere in there I've apparently missed the automatic connection between if Ryjae turns up town BlaM must be scum Can someone enlighten me of that connection please. In the discussion on Day IV regarding hats, the only people still alive that Ryjae claimed he had hatted were Blam and DB. Ryjae claimed he got the following mind read: The only one of the hats this would make sense on would be Blam. After all, he was under suspicion the previous day until DB was revealed to be lying by Hal. At that point, we were all gunning for DB so that though wouldn't make sense coming from her. If Ryjae's town, it's pretty apparent that he's telling the truth. I can't see any pro-townie laughing at the fact that town is no longer wanting to lynch him. Relief? Sure. But amusement or joy? Not really. Now, if Ryjae is not town, we have to suss out why he would lie about his reading? I can't figure out why, but it is something we'll need to think about. He could be telling the truth regardless. However, once we know exactly where he's coming from, we can better figure out his motivations for saying what he did.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 15, 2008 20:07:35 GMT -5
arrrrghhhhh, ryjae are you trying to get killed? I'm holding off on voting for you because I think there are bigger fish to fry today, but geez....You can at least be rational and back up your reasoning.
FWIW: I totally believe that ryjae is PFK. It's too much of a risk for hawkeyop to baldly state that as fact. However, I am in no way convinced that hawkeyeop is a Baddie. His role is better suited to the Do-gooders than to baddies. His role is stupid if he can only identify PFK's and they in turn can kill him. He's glad he didn't investigate Santo because that could kill him, but he investigated Cat on Night 1 and didn't die. So how does that work? And then who else could kill him? It's obvious the Bat-team aren't killing anyone, just removing them from play. See Rysto's analysis of hawkeyeop above as well.
Smurf, you present a case where town is a slam dunk to win (if we believe the masons are on our side). However, I would put storyteller#### in the Baddie rather than the potential Do-gooder group because of his relationship to Bane. So, two questions:
1) Why is hawkeyeop not in your potential Do-gooders collection based on you're analysis of him?
2) Why are you going after the last of 2 PFK's instead of one of your proposed Do-gooders? This makes absolutely no sense to me.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 15, 2008 20:10:54 GMT -5
Grrrr, EPWOP: you're = your in (1) above. And putting my paranoia where my vote is:
Vote hawkeyeop
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Apr 15, 2008 20:38:19 GMT -5
Smurf, you present a case where town is a slam dunk to win (if we believe the masons are on our side). However, I would put storyteller#### in the Baddie rather than the potential Do-gooder group because of his relationship to Bane. So, two questions: 1) Why is hawkeyeop not in your potential Do-gooders collection based on you're analysis of him? 2) Why are you going after the last of 2 PFK's instead of one of your proposed Do-gooders? This makes absolutely no sense to me. I didn't think my case represents an ironclad town win by any means, I meant it instead to be an attempt to narrow down the prime targets to investigate. To share with the game at large where I think the most suscpicion should lay, and where investigative energies can best be spent. As for storyteller, personally I agree he is more likely to be town than scum, however - my methodology in my analysis of the scum was based upon scum having disguises and not having the powers to back up the name claim and so I listed the people who hadn't verifiably used a power. Storyteller fell in that group, so to be conservative I left him in there regardless of my personal feeling on his alignment. Point the 1st - As to Hawkeye not in that list of 5, if you reread my post you will see I mark him as a special case and devote a couple of paragraphs exclusively to him. He has claimed powers and has apparently used them (if his investigation is to be believed). I specifically said even if Ryjae is PFK, hawkeye still doesn't get confirmed townie status from me. Point the 2nd - Where do I say I'm going after only the PFKers? In fact I advocate leaving tdpatriots alone for a day or two at least while we try to out the remaining scum. If you mean why vote Ryjae, instead of hunting for Scum today? well because unfortunately for Ryjae, his lynching is going to reveal a hell of a lot of information. If he's PFK, yay us, we have all the PFKers dead or exposed, we can concentrate on finding the scum. If he turns up town, we then have two massive and pretty safe IMO lynch candidates in Hawkeye and BlaM. As I just said not to say if Ryjae is PFK those two get confirmed either.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Apr 15, 2008 20:39:13 GMT -5
Oh thanks for the heads up on the BlaM Ryjae link - I had overlooked that somehow
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 15, 2008 21:44:57 GMT -5
vote ryjae, on the basis of hawkeyeop's investigation, because I can't make up my mind on whether his behavior means he's scum or power-role.
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Post by Hawkmod on Apr 15, 2008 21:48:12 GMT -5
14 and a half hours at work and counting. For the record, I didn't say my power didn't work against Do Gooders. I'll clarify when my mutual desires to punch my moniter and fall asleep on my keyboard are quenched.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 15, 2008 21:58:53 GMT -5
Well, I don't really feel his death will tell us much of anything because I already, perhaps erroneously, have put him in a PFK role. It makes no sense for hawkeyeop to make a false accusation at this point. However if as I assume* ryjae turns up PFK we learn nothing about hawkeyeop or Blam for that matter.
Why not make a real case against one of your presumed Do-gooders rather than leave it with the easy, "let's off ryjea." You're only real claim against them is they haven't outed their powers. Role fishing?
Ok I probably phrased my question wrong. Here it is in smaller words**:
Why are you going after a PFK when there are only two left and while there are 4-5 Do-gooders left? Why are you not making a case against one of your proposed Do-gooders rather than shooting a PFK duck in a barrel? If you believe in the list you posted make some sort of case besides, "well they haven't claimed any powers yet."
*yeah, I know, ass, u, me, blah **I am better with smaller words, if I could put words into scientific notation I would feel much better.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 15, 2008 22:04:45 GMT -5
vote ryjae, on the basis of hawkeyeop's investigation, because I can't make up my mind on whether his behavior means he's scum or power-role. That's it? ?? He's a power role or he's scum, well it's a toss up, let's just kill him? Gahhhhh sha me now!!!!!
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Apr 15, 2008 22:24:59 GMT -5
Well, I don't really feel his death will tell us much of anything because I already, perhaps erroneously, have put him in a PFK role. It makes no sense for hawkeyeop to make a false accusation at this point. However if as I assume* ryjae turns up PFK we learn nothing about hawkeyeop or Blam for that matter. Why not make a real case against one of your presumed Do-gooders rather than leave it with the easy, "let's off ryjea." You're only real claim against them is they haven't outed their powers. Role fishing? Ok I probably phrased my question wrong. Here it is in smaller words**: Why are you going after a PFK when there are only two left and while there are 4-5 Do-gooders left? Why are you not making a case against one of your proposed Do-gooders rather than shooting a PFK duck in a barrel? If you believe in the list you posted make some sort of case besides, "well they haven't claimed any powers yet." Probably because I don't have a good case to make against the people on my do gooder list as yet. As I said the list has helped me to compartmentalise where my attention is going to be. And I doubt that anything I can put together by analysing posts will present evidence anywhere near as strong as that against Ryjae. Personally given the choice between lynching the one in the hand versus trying to find evidence against the one in the bush, I'll deal with the one in the hand first, and then go after the one in the bush. PFK or Do Gooder, they all need to die for us to win. While it's true that the DGers could be seen as more dangerous because they are a large group working together, the PFKers could be just as dangerous as they have unknown win conditions that may not be simply about surviving until the end. And I'm a little curious as to why if you're (all but) certain he's PFK you're apparently happy to let Ryjae continue to live. Do you have some compelling evidence against someone else? Some evidence that is as strong as that against Ryjae? The old adage - vote for who you think is scummiest. Well the strongest evidence I have right now is that Ryjae is PFK, (another type of scum) so I'm going to vote for him.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Apr 15, 2008 22:27:33 GMT -5
Ah Crap
Mods would you be so kind as to delete the second of my double post please.
K.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 16, 2008 0:20:33 GMT -5
Are you working your way backwards through the votes already on Ryjae, sinjin? I understand that you a) believe Ryjae to be PFK, and b) would rather gun for Do-Gooders, of which you think Hawk is a card-carrying member, but I find it worth noting that you have so far ignored picking at the earlier votes for Ryjae.
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 16, 2008 4:32:58 GMT -5
Hmmm... so much for my Brewha suspicions. NAF is right, I forgot about his early "dreams" and Brewha's subsequent claims. Sorry!
Why gun for PFKs? - because on the evidence that we've got so far, they (especially the Joker) have been more dangerous to the Town individually than the do-gooders have. There's been no mention of any specific power that either Robin or Batgirl have had. Of course, it's quite possible that a PFK has a "double-ended" power that could, depending on how it's used, either benefit or damage the townies' cause. I also think that Batman might have a specific and damaging power, but without knowing specifically who he is, we can't exactly gun for him specifically.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 16, 2008 5:45:09 GMT -5
well Cookies I did an analysis similar to Smurf's and we mostly agree if the masons are on the up and up (i.e. they are Baddies):
We then have as Baddies:
Masons: Dark Smurf NAF Cookies molefan
Those who I think are Baddies and why: storyteller0910: the Bane connection brewha: story/NAF block/protection adds up Hoopy: gut feeling plus his freeze blocked the Do-gooders Night 2 Sinjin: I know my alignment (you of course do not, see below*.)
PFK's: Ryjae: too dangerous for hawkeyeop to lie about it. tdpats: why claim PFK if he's not?
That leaves no more PFK's in the game according to Smurf
Now the Smurf also said yesterday that there were approximately 5 Do-gooders left and we coincidently have 5 people left in the shallow end of the pool to choose from.
Darth Sensative/Klutz Death by Kassia Rysto Blam/zuma Hawkeyeop
So if we believe the masons are on our side the game is over and we win if we start offing Do-gooders. There's at least eight of us, seven if you don't believe my claim, and 4 or 5 of them. Game over. There have been no night kills or day kills, only Do-gooders taking out Baddies and PFK's, since Cat and Santo were retired.
*Of course some of you might still consider me to be in the shallow end as well, but that's ok, because I win with town even if I'm dead, so put me in the pool too if you want.
So, yes I am puzzled as to why Dark Smurf wants to start by lynching one of the last PFK's instead of hacking away at the 4-5 potential Do-Gooders he identified who ultimately present more of a threat to the Baddies.
And Cookies I have no idea what you're on about looking at early Ryjae voters. Can there be no dissent in this game?
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Post by brewha on Apr 16, 2008 6:42:01 GMT -5
Ok, I agree with that list - mostly.
Here's what I don't get. Why is Ryjae so eager to die? He's not fighting his imminent lynch at all. If he truly is playing for keeps, he loses when he dies. But, if he's town, he wins when the town wins. And if his death leads to the death of two do gooders, it's a good townie move.
Now, I'm not opposing Ryjae's lynch. I'd like to know where he's coming from. And, if he is a mad B omber type, he could be incredibly dangerous to let live. But if he turns up as town, we got an unaccounted PFK among us.
Sinjin's list wraps things up all nice and tidy, but if Ryjae does turn up as town, we gotta figure out who is not.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 16, 2008 7:26:03 GMT -5
Oh, and apologies ot DBI for my comment above. I forgot it was you who did the lengthy ryjae/hawkeyeop analysis previously.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 16, 2008 9:53:43 GMT -5
Nothing wrong with dissent. I've certainly doled out my share. It just seemed like your interest in speaking out specifically against the positions of DbI and Smurf, as opposed to the entire voting block. *shrug*
In my perfect world, we'd manage a three-way tie between BLaM, Ryjae, and Hawk, and let fate decide who dies. ;D
I do think that BLaM managed to survive by the skin of his teethe, with he and his previous incarnation pinging my scumdar steadily throughout the game. He also seems to be extremely quiet unless he has someone on his ass or is otherwise a primary topic of conversation. His powers remain shrouded in secrecy, with apparently no visible (either publically or privately) effects by day or night, and no information or influence appears to have been forthcoming from it. If he is subtly adjusting his play based on some sort of information gleaned with his role, it is indeed subtle. Perhaps he's just good at playing a pro-town role strategy on the down low. Perhaps there are players who have "experienced" being targeted by him and have kept their mouths shut for one reason or another. Perhaps he has not utilized the payload(s)of his role yet. But there are also dark and guano-filled possible explanations.
The apparent linkage of the fates of of both Hawkeyeop and BLaM to information that can be gleaned from Ryjae's death also seems unlikely, and I don't trust in it much. If that linkage is based on lies, then Ryjae's death will not result in the "2 for 1" trade. If it is based on partial truths, who knows which parts are true and which are lies, or how that potentially impacts things for Hawk and BLaM.
I suppose it all comes down to a hunch that if all three of them are actually members of different factions. If we manage to lynch the Baddie, there are a few different ways things can go down where the surviving Baddies do not reap any rewards from an innocent death.
Ryjae - PFK Hawk - Baddie BLaM - Do-Gooder
Ryjae - PFK Hawk - Do-Gooder BLaM - Baddie
Ryjae - Baddie Hawk - PFK BLaM - Do-Gooder
Ryjae - Baddie Hawk - Do-Gooder BLaM - PFK
I will follow up with a breakdown of what we can expect to learn in each combination depending on who we kill, based on what we already know.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Apr 16, 2008 9:55:35 GMT -5
I forgot to stipulate that Ryjae as a Do-Gooder also strikes me as not being likely, ergo it is not represented as a possibility above.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 16, 2008 11:11:08 GMT -5
I can't beleive we are missing some of the basics here.
Hawk did you follow anyone last Night? If so who and what was your result? (You didn't mention losing your power if you claimed, so I am assuming you didn't.)
Sinj, if you look back at Hoopy's nice analysis of why the town as a whole benefits from Ryjae's death, I think you will see that killing Ryjae is a good move unless we know for certain who another Do Gooder is.
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Post by brewha on Apr 16, 2008 11:27:51 GMT -5
I do want to put it on record that unless things change, I'm planning on voting for Ryjae. But, once again, I'll be waiting to ensure we get the full time to discuss toDay.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 16, 2008 12:01:10 GMT -5
Sinj, if you look back at Hoopy's nice analysis of why the town as a whole benefits from Ryjae's death, I think you will see that killing Ryjae is a good move unless we know for certain who another Do Gooder is. See post #161
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 16, 2008 12:15:41 GMT -5
Sorry - I've been incredibly out of it this week. Major headaches at work. I have a meeting until 3:00 and it starts in 12 minutes, but I will return after that with discussion of why I, provisionally and incompletely, agree with sinjin.
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Post by NAF1138 on Apr 16, 2008 12:40:34 GMT -5
Sinj, if you look back at Hoopy's nice analysis of why the town as a whole benefits from Ryjae's death, I think you will see that killing Ryjae is a good move unless we know for certain who another Do Gooder is. See post #161 Fair enough, in which case I say we kill BlaM. The thing is, Ryjae needs to be killed at some point if he is a PFK, and I don't want to wait until all the Do Gooders are dead to get rid of all the PFKs, since we don't know what their win conditions are. I still think Ryjae is a better choice, but would be perfectly happy killing BlaM.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 16, 2008 12:59:49 GMT -5
Now the Smurf also said yesterday that there were approximately 5 Do-gooders left and we coincidently have 5 people left in the shallow end of the pool to choose from. Darth Sensative/Klutz Death by Kassia Rysto Blam/zuma Hawkeyeop
Don't forget that the "approximately" 5 Do-Gooders included Drain Bead, which allows for the possibility of a Townie in this group. And I'm sure it will not surprise any of you that I say that I'm that townie. I'm still confused over the Kassia/Kat/CIAS vote, though.
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Post by Hawkmod on Apr 16, 2008 13:21:21 GMT -5
Smurf
Can you answer these question three?
How many do gooders are still alive?
How many people PFK are still alive?
How do you know this information?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 16, 2008 13:24:46 GMT -5
Understand that if we don't lynch Ryjae we will most likely lose Hawk, barring a blocker on Ryjae or a doc on Hawk, neither of which I think are good uses of either power for town.
Granted, it might be a way to troll out a scum blocker should Hawk live, but as I said earlier, that's assuming Brewha and I (and anyone else who's town) do not interfere with Ryjae's attack (which I already said is my plan); that town trusts us when we say we won't, and that Ryjae actually sets off the hat.
Like NAF I'm fine with Blam getting lynched, but I still think Ryjae's a slightly better choice.
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