Death By Irony
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The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 21, 2008 20:15:09 GMT -5
*Coughs* I've thought things over, *Coughs* and it looks like it might just be *Coughs*-ing impossible for me to win whether I lie or tell the truth. *Coughs* I may as well go out being honest. *Coughs* I didn't counterclaim Ash because I have no idea how many PFKs there are and I figure he might be telling the truth. On top of that, I don't know if surving to Endgame would prevent anybody else's win condition, *Coughs* so I've been assuming that BOTH sides want me dead. *Coughs* When Hawkeyop said he investigated me as town I *Coughs* screamed at my desktop for a good minute because I couldn't figure out his motivation. Is he a gambiting Baddie, lying to see how I would react? Or is he a Do-Gooder, using that investigation result to suggest he KNOWS I'm PFK and he's threatening me to keep quiet? *Coughs* ToDay's events may very well have completely *Coughs*-ed me over. I suck at lying, and even if I said nothing I might get lynched to test the competing Detective claims. But if I explicitly side with the Town, I may get Night killed in retribution. *Coughs* Please don't kill me, I want to liiiiiiiiiiiive.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 21, 2008 20:29:40 GMT -5
This is a great game!!!
Kat: "I'm a vig"
Cat: "No, I'm a vig"
hawkeyeop: "I'm a detective"
Rysto: "No, I'm a detective"
tdpats: "I'm a survivor"
DBI: "No, I'm a survivor"
Masons: "We can talk off board" "No we can't" "There are three of us" "No, there are four or of us, or maybe more" "We don't have a separate win condition" "We do have a separate win condition"
Exalts to Roosh and Dio, w00t.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 20:32:27 GMT -5
Actually, it's more like:
Kat: "I'm a vig"
Cat: "No, I'm a vig"
HM: "No, I'm a vig/detective"
Hal: "No, I'm a detective."
hawkeyeop: "No, I'm a detective"
Rysto: "No, I'm a detective"
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 20:34:04 GMT -5
I think that the logical next step is for Darth and story to both claim Chia Bingo Manager.
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Post by sinjin on Apr 21, 2008 20:36:47 GMT -5
Or Dread Pirate Roberts
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Apr 21, 2008 20:47:24 GMT -5
I'm not seeing how tdpatriots's death gives us any information. He's not connected to anyone as far as I can see. If he's telling the truth, we've just wasted a lynch, and if he's lying, well, we'll know when two other PFKs are revealed (assuming we believe the Masons now). I'm not really getting what we gain by lynching him. Can you show me where there's evidence there are 2 PFK remaining? I've run the numbers for the PFK's in my post up above. I'll run them again here for the lazy: There was one PFK dead when NAF got his info. He was told the number of masons (which at the time stood at 3 or 4, depending on if the mods count Penguin as a mason) is equal to the number of PFK remaining. We have since disposed of 3 more PFK. This means there are either 4 - 3 = 1 OR 3 - 3 = 0 PFK remaining. Not 2. 4 - 3 does not equal 2 even for very large values of 4 and very small values of 3.To sum up the point which I've made in at least two posts already: There are only 1 or 0 remaining if we trust the masons. Not 2. Lynching tdpatriots will get either the last remaining PFK as well as exposing Rysto as a liar...OR...it will nab a scum. Regardless, all investigators live to the end of the day. If one of the investigators is town, and scum whack him, the other investigator is pretty much confirmed scum, so he's lynched the next day. Scum will take a big risk killing the pro-town investigator so the likelihood of both investigators making it through the night is also high.Now, how in the goddamn fucking cunt shit piss of Hell is this lynch not good for town!!!! HEY, I'M THE YELLER HERE, GOT IT?
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Post by sinjin on Apr 21, 2008 20:53:32 GMT -5
You were bit by a rabid wolf? I'm so sorry.
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Post by tdpatriots12 on Apr 21, 2008 20:56:00 GMT -5
You were bit by a rabid wolf? I'm so sorry. He was my dog. /loads Boomstick I'll do it.
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 21, 2008 20:57:11 GMT -5
HEY, I'M THE YELLER HERE, GOT IT? Yes, sir. Sorry, sir. I'll never do it again, sir. *Hides in corner.*
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
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Post by Death By Irony on Apr 21, 2008 21:14:27 GMT -5
*cough* Get back up in the *cough* Peanut Gallery, Idle. *cough*
Seriously. *cough* Save the taunting/fluff posts for Night. *cough*
Some of us are trying to play a game. *cough*
(Well, okay, that came out a lot crankier than I feel. But still, please.)
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 21, 2008 21:17:02 GMT -5
In all honesty, out of all the scenarios running through my mind on how DBI was going to play this, I really wasn't expecting that one. Although, I think that pretty much supports the theory I posited earlier that the scum were hiding behind a PFK type they knew was already out there and hoping that there wouldn't be a counter-claim for the very reason that the last thing a survivor wants is to be exposed. Particularly one that doesn't have immunity to night kills (convenient how a scum cover has immunity to night kills, eh?)
So yeah, now my vote really stands where it is. And Rysto is now confirmed by someone, which is more than can be said for Hawkeyop. Sure, both had confirmed PFK outings, but Rysto's comes from a contested role, a role that is contested by Hawk. No one contested Ryjae except Ryjae himself, and the PFK role he had was dangerous for scum, so there was a reason scum wanted him out and dead. There was no reason for scum to lie with him.
Yet, you may be thinking, why would scum lie about a townie who wasn't a townie? Simple. Everyone thought that the town's two detectives were outed. Hal being in reality a PFK was no doubt a shock to most. Some people had their suspicions (story and NAF in particular, IIRC), but his actions and abilities were very pro-town with the ability to expose covers. With scum offing one detective (HM) and planning on ganking the other the next night, they got cocky, and decided to take a chance on claiming the one PFK they knew would be afraid to counter-claim. The one who wanted to stay hidden. This way, they could try to guarantee someone lasting to the end game. And if it didn't work, well, they were winning. It was worth the risk. No one was tied to tdpatriots at that point. Also, tdpatriots had been pinging people the first couple days. What better way to throw off suspicion than to come out as a non-town, but a benign non-town. Heck, vote with town to lynch your fellow scum, and you might even get extra cred for it. Yes, Hawk got lucky night one. He investigated Kassia (remember, she was almost lynched that day) and discovered who she really was. This is why he never told us who he investigated on night one. This is why he's only thrown us information that can benefit scum just as much as (and even more than) it benefits town.
Sorry that you got put in this position, DBI, but I'm only sorry for you, not for us. If it's any consolation, it's unlikely town will be lynching you anytime soon. Heck, play nice with us, and you might even make it to the end game. Understand, though, that if you work against us, we likely will have no qualms making sure you don't win.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 21:44:27 GMT -5
Now that I've thought about it, tdpats' claimed night-kill resistance makes me suspicious. I'm wondering if he's a Do Gooder who really does have a night-kill resistance. Do scum with night-kill resistances usually know whether they've survived a night kill? I'm thinking that maybe tdpats didn't know whether some stray Vig had ever targeted him, and didn't want to take the risk that somebody could immediately counter-claim a normal Survivor claim, so he threw the bit about the Boomstick in there to explain why he'd survived any attacks. If this long bit of supposition is correct, then tdpats is likely the Bat.
I'm not sure what to do about DBI. Fortunately for me, I likely won't be alive long enough to have to make that decision. She's certainly not a townie lying about being a PFK, so Hawk's definitely a liar. Which I guess pretty much confirms me as telling the truth -- the only other alternative is that she's a lying Do-Gooder, but then you have to believe that I'm a liar, Hawk's a liar and DBI's a liar. Of course, just because DBI's PFK doesn't mean that she's a benign survivor. I have to wonder, though, if she's not a survivor, what is she? What's her win condition and what powers does she have that allow her to complete it? Pretty soon, that'll be out of my hands, I guess.
Hoopy, I can't figure out why Hawk lied about DBI, but at this point I don't think that the motivations really matter anymore.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 21:52:40 GMT -5
Another thing: on Day 3, NAF got a message saying that there were more Do-Gooders than Masons. As there were 4 Masons at that time, there must have been at *least* 5 Do-Gooders alive at that time. Since then, only one Do-Gooder has died. So there must be at least 4 Do-Gooders among tdpats, Hawk, BLaM, Darth, Hoopy and sinjin.
If there were 6 Do-Gooders, we'd have lost already. If there are 5 Do-Gooders, we're at lynch-or-lose, and lynching DBI loses the game. If there are 4 Do-Gooders, we have one mislynch left, and lynching DBI counts as a mislynch.
Do we even have a choice whether to lynch DBI?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 21, 2008 22:15:40 GMT -5
Another thing: on Day 3, NAF got a message saying that there were more Do-Gooders than Masons. As there were 4 Masons at that time, there must have been at *least* 5 Do-Gooders alive at that time. Since then, only one Do-Gooder has died. So there must be at least 4 Do-Gooders among tdpats, Hawk, BLaM, Darth, Hoopy and sinjin. If there were 6 Do-Gooders, we'd have lost already. If there are 5 Do-Gooders, we're at lynch-or-lose, and lynching DBI loses the game. If there are 4 Do-Gooders, we have one mislynch left, and lynching DBI counts as a mislynch. Do we even have a choice whether to lynch DBI? Good point. At this point, no we have no choice. We can't lynch her at this point and expect to win the game. Scum will kill one of us each night. We have to kill one of them each day in return, at least until we buy ourselves some breathing room. Unfortunately, I don't think my block can stop a kill, unless the kill is a rotating thing, where one scum is chosen each night to be the killer. It's really the only balanced way I can see 3 pro-town blockers being good for town. All I know is that none of the blockers have actually blocked a kill so far, with the exception of me on night two. ( Brewha acted as a doctor on night one to protect a mason.) So we need to hit scum the only way we know we can. Fortunately, the pool for lynches is rather low. Besides, if I'm going to lose, I'd rather lose to a PFK. The odds were stacked against them from the beginning.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 21, 2008 22:34:31 GMT -5
Well, that... simplifies things considerably. It would appear that the remaining scum/PFK are hawkeyeop, tdpatriots12, Death By Irony, and two others to be named later (obviously, my money's on Darth Sensitive for the death). For toDay, I'll vote for the one of those I deem least likely to actually be PFK and therefore most likely to be a Do-Gooder.
vote hawkeyeop
From here the path is clear, if not easy. The next few lynches should be fairly easy. hawk toDay, tdpatriots12 toMorrow. Assuming nothing dramatic has happened, I'd lynch Darth Sensitive after that. From there, it will be up to the remaining townies to root out the remaining Do-Gooder and try to squeeze a DbI lynch in there somewhere, too.
We do have a small advantage. brewha is unlikely to die toNight. Come the following Night, he does have a chance at outguessing the scum and protecting the right target, which would extend our game by one mislynch (always assuming that brewha is Town).
I also have a trick up my sleeve, obviously. It won't help much, but it will help. There may also be one or two Townies with similar tricks to employ. We still have a chance in this thing.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 22:37:35 GMT -5
story, why Hawk over tdpats?
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 21, 2008 22:42:01 GMT -5
story, why Hawk over tdpats? Gut feeling that the one would be more likely to be Batman than the other. Also - please don't take this the wrong way - there is the distant, but nonetheless possible, possibility that you, hawk, and DbI are all scum together. It would be a brilliant gambit - having all of you lie variously like this, and set it up such that you get huge Townie credit for outing the two of them. In such a case, tdpats12 could actually be the last PFK, and we'd be using up our last mislynch killing him. Although, now that I think about it, I guess lynching tdpats12 would be a better way of looking at even that distant possibility. Hm. I'm vacillating. It's a long Day, though, so I don't think we have to decide right now.
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Darth Sensitive
Mome Rath
With great power comes great responsibility / That's the catchphrase of Old Uncle Ben
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Apr 21, 2008 22:51:48 GMT -5
.odranoeL id icniV ad onoS .otavort onos im ,etnecaipS
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 23:03:19 GMT -5
It'd be spoiled by the fact that the Do-Gooders have to kill me tonight. Me surviving to the end would kinda be a dead giveaway that I'm scum. Of course, in such a case I'd argue that the scum are letting me live to frame me. if the Do-Gooders want to try that gambit, they can feel free to let me live and get more chances to investigate.
NAF, is your information that Batman, and only Batman, can use the utility belt? Because Hawk was blocked last night, which would mean that he can't be Batman.
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Post by Rysto on Apr 21, 2008 23:10:07 GMT -5
Oh, and I'm not insulted by the paranoia. If anything, I should feel flattered that you feel that it's a distant possibility that I could ever cook up something like that. But if your conspiracy theory is correct, then you have to lynch one of tdpats, DBI or I to discover the truth.
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RoOsh
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Former BatMod
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Post by RoOsh on Apr 22, 2008 0:17:52 GMT -5
.odranoeL id icniV ad onoS .otavort onos im ,etnecaipS
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Darth Sensitive
Mome Rath
With great power comes great responsibility / That's the catchphrase of Old Uncle Ben
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Post by Darth Sensitive on Apr 22, 2008 0:55:12 GMT -5
?amraK .iov rep ovorP
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RoOsh
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[on:Wanna see a magic trick?][of:See You, Space Cowboy....]
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Post by RoOsh on Apr 22, 2008 1:25:39 GMT -5
.atlov anu atseuq otnatloS
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Post by Holy Moley! on Apr 22, 2008 3:23:40 GMT -5
Oh... and molefan, get off your high horse. I was right. For about the fifth time today I'm going to ask someone: What the heck are you talking about? As far as you're concerned, I think you're scum and that you completely gave yourself away in the first few hours of this day. The only thing that worries me is why you did so, because I've not had any particular scumtells from you up until now and then suddenly you decide to act like a suicidal maniac, voting an almost certain townie and responding angrily to a fairly obvious do-gooder-baiting post that I made. Frankly it seems completely uncharacteristic of you and that worries me. Lemme make a guess here. Do you have some kind of power that's activated by an attempt to lynch you - similar to the one Sinjin has that's activated by an attempt to night-kill him? Are you trying to get lynched?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 22, 2008 6:30:00 GMT -5
story, why Hawk over tdpats? Gut feeling that the one would be more likely to be Batman than the other. As Rysto said, I blocked Hawk last night. If only Batman can use the utility belt, Hawk is not Batman. tdpatriots has never been blocked except on night 2, and no utility belt function occurred on Day 3. So it's more likely that tdpatriots is the Bat than Hawk is.
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Post by brewha on Apr 22, 2008 7:02:17 GMT -5
Did a utility belt function occur on day four? I attempted to block TDpats night 3. I'm not sure if it worked or not, but I got the feeling he was only resistent to night kill attempts. Of course that's taking his word.
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Post by brewha on Apr 22, 2008 7:04:49 GMT -5
NETA. BlaM got the shark spray on day four. Which means either TDPats is not Batman, or my roleblock on him didn't work.
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Post by Hawkmod on Apr 22, 2008 7:56:28 GMT -5
Well, I might as well come clean. All my actions will make sense in a minute. For I am actually
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Post by storyteller0910 on Apr 22, 2008 7:56:44 GMT -5
Gut feeling that the one would be more likely to be Batman than the other. As Rysto said, I blocked Hawk last night. If only Batman can use the utility belt, Hawk is not Batman. tdpatriots has never been blocked except on night 2, and no utility belt function occurred on Day 3. So it's more likely that tdpatriots is the Bat than Hawk is. That's a fair point. I'm having trouble, now, keeping track of who did what to whom each Day and Night. We need a spreadsheet. Actually, based on what's been said in here, it's more likely than not that neither hawk nor tdpats12 is actually Batman. In some ways, that makes sense: I don't know that the Do-Gooders would risk their leader on gambits like the ones those two attempted. While I think they should be our next two targets anyway, in either order (although I can see the arguments for starting with tdpats12), we should keep that in mind and maybe use some of the remainder of the Day to discuss it. Why did hawk and td12 attempt the gambits they attempted, if indeed they are both Do-Gooders? 'Tis a puzzlement. Alternately, we could end the Day early this time around. I'm not sure how much more we're going to hash out toDay, and with a lynch order more or less established for the next few Days this game has the potential to drag considerably if the Day/Night cycle remains as it is. Mods, if we lynch someone early toDay (say we got a majority this afternoon, such that the lynch occurred on Wednesday afternoon), would we remain on the static schedule, such that the Night would last for four real-life days? Or would you be amenable to a schedule adjustment?
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Post by Høøpy Frøød on Apr 22, 2008 8:38:32 GMT -5
That's a fair point. I'm having trouble, now, keeping track of who did what to whom each Day and Night. We need a spreadsheet. I am too, since I had forgotten that Brewha had blocked tdpats on night 3. The only thing I can come up with is mentioned in the third paragraph here: psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=tempy&action=display&thread=325&page=6#23084It's clarifies an earlier theory of mine that at the time I originally proposed it did seem like a bit of a stretch. The theory was made after Rysto[/b's reveal and before DBI's claim. With DBI's claim figured in now, it doesnt' seem much of a stretch at all.
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