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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 13:57:26 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 20, 2009 13:57:26 GMT -5
Vote: hockey monkey
I did want to let HM live and see how it played out. As it stands right now, the role, as claimed, isn't really pro-Town. And my vote should put her in the tie-break lead.
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 13:57:50 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jul 20, 2009 13:57:50 GMT -5
How do you feel about Ed? I like the case for Ed less than Mhayes about Stanislaus, I like both of them less than my vote for PCM. Noted. If we can get one more, I'll switch with you.
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 13:58:59 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jul 20, 2009 13:58:59 GMT -5
I like the case for Ed less than Mhayes about Stanislaus, I like both of them less than my vote for PCM. Noted. If we can get one more, I'll switch with you. Wait...maybe not. Does that math work?
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 13:59:30 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 20, 2009 13:59:30 GMT -5
Ok, I can live with that. I can push going to lunch until 12:15 my time (16 minutes from now). But then I am gone so if a plan comes together in the next 16 minutes I am game.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:00:21 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 20, 2009 14:00:21 GMT -5
Well it works if people unvote Hockey Monkey. But as it is HM is going to die (if my count is correct.)
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:00:51 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 20, 2009 14:00:51 GMT -5
Noted. If we can get one more, I'll switch with you. Wait...maybe not. Does that math work? I'm still here, though I'm about to go eat lunch, I can easily check back. Can you back up the case against PCM? I'll go re-read what's been said already
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:02:54 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 20, 2009 14:02:54 GMT -5
My case against PCM is basically a variant on behavioral analysis of scummy posters having trouble making votes against players they know are town. It's a variation on the case I have presented before. It doesn't always work out, becuase sometimes town behave like scum, but right now all the other vote leaders are seeming townie to me and I don't think that killing HM is in the towns best interest yet.
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Merestil Haye
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:03:05 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 20, 2009 14:03:05 GMT -5
As things stand, HM is leading the votes. But if the Day ends in a tied vote and no-one accrues 6 or more votes, Pedescribe will be lynched.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:05:07 GMT -5
Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2009 14:05:07 GMT -5
You are being deliberately obtuse. On first reading, you would be likely to remember that you are a mason, or your gold total. But you wouldn't be likely to remember your exact win condition, thus being unable to use it in a handshake. The win condition is the second most important thing! The precise details are very important, especially in the end game. I'm not happy with the way the voting is going. We're making a huge mistake lynching our Vig. I think there's more than one Rebel voting for her. And the rest our Townies falling for the Rebels' fear mongering. Oh no, the Vig will probably kill Townies! And dead Townies are bad, we don't have any spare! Sorry, we have at least 7.5 mislynches. We have Townies to spare. The Vig kill threatens Rebels much more than the Town. They can't afford to lose players. We can. And too many players waited too long to vote. We need to vote someone who's not claimed power role. I hate doing this, but we need to pick someone else, fast. unvote pedescribevote Mollusc
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:05:25 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 20, 2009 14:05:25 GMT -5
Unvote: PCM Vote: Hockey Monkey
Unvote: hockey Monkey Vote: PCM
To help push HM over the tiebreaker edge, just in case. If it comes down to a tie (let's hope it won't) I would rather HM go down right now than the claimed cop.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:06:34 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 20, 2009 14:06:34 GMT -5
the claimed doc is what I meant to say. Not claimed cop
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:06:47 GMT -5
Post by hockeyguy8435 on Jul 20, 2009 14:06:47 GMT -5
Now I don't know what to do. I had almost made my mine up to vote for Pleo once I got home today, but seeing his claim, I can't.
I've reconsidered my stance on HM and I'm willing to let her go a few Nights now to see if she can nab us a Scum or two. If we haven't gotten any Scum by Day three though, I'll have to start considering lynching HM again. Especially if we lose 2-3 players a Night.
I'm not feeling the Pedescribe vote either. It does appear to be a "shot in the dark" as a few people have said in their reasoning to vote him. I don't like that. A blind guess? We have a few other players that have made a case on some, and we have some lurkers. I don't like the blind guess and quickness the pedescribe vote has gotten. Three people took the same shot in the dark in about an hour and a half. I dunno...
This puts us in a very tough situation. HM is tied for the lead with Pedesribe who upon refreshing the page just claimed Doctor.
The person I want to vote for right now is peekercpa. Mainly for his vote on HM. In my opinion, there was a very compelling case (NAF made, I think?) made on why we need to keep HM for now. In a few Days we may need to reconsider that though, as she could hurt us more in the mid-game. Etc.
But that vote won't save one of our claimed players.
Upon another refresh, Ed just voted for HM as well, so I'll vote for him then.
Vote: Ed[/color] For his vote on HockeyMonkey and I think Stanis made some good observations about hi thus far.
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:07:47 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jul 20, 2009 14:07:47 GMT -5
You are being deliberately obtuse. On first reading, you would be likely to remember that you are a mason, or your gold total. But you wouldn't be likely to remember your exact win condition, thus being unable to use it in a handshake. The win condition is the second most important thing! The precise details are very important, especially in the end game. Is it just me, or have we had this exact same conversation before? Anyway, I don't think I've ever read my win con the first time around.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:07:56 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 20, 2009 14:07:56 GMT -5
Well that didn't work. Quoting my previous WoW for the sake of efficiency doesn't work. But this is the meat: I have an ethical problem with all of the alleged handshakers, not just you NAF. You all had a brief opportunity to redeem yourselves by dropping the topic once Hawk had posted the Vanilla Town PM, and not one of you took it. Not a single one of you adjusted your trajectory even after you were confronted with the undeniable fact that rules of the game were designed to prevent such things, even though the Mod wasn't able to tie up all of the loose ends prior to the game starting. That might bring some of you (assuming Town alignment) some sort of satisfaction that you might have been able to steal an advantage for your faction, but not everyone finds satisfaction in such things. Some people find such things actually have the inverse effect and take satisfaction away from the experience of playing on the same side as people who play like that. I'm one of those people. Normally, I would just rail at such play from my metagame ethical ivory tower, but in this case I happened to have information that casts not just ethical doubt on the handshaking, but doubt as it relates to the Town's risks in game. Pleo's play is particularly rubbing me the wrong way on multiple levels. In one post he asks me to elaborate on my 2 PMs, then suggests that I PM the mod if I have any doubts as to staying within the confines of the rules. Yet when I refuse to budge on any more information about the first PM (the one I have already stated that the mod specifically asked me to ignore, not to mention the fact, again, that we have all been advised to consider our role PMs to have self-destructed upon reading) he smears me as being evasive and then goes on to slap a vote on me for keeping things to myself, not speaking clearly and not subscribing to reason. What if I have followed your (Pleo's) suggestion and asked the Mod and he said that further elaboration would be in violate the rules? Why would you take my word on that while you have pissed on everything else I've said since I claimed? I have, in fact, exchanged a single round of PMs with Hawk since receiving my correct role, but I didn't need his opinion to know that I have already said enough on the subject. Did you miss that last statment, or do you still consider that as being evasive and anti-town? The content of this post also applies to you, Pleo: Honestly? I would have stopped asking you. What was getting me was the squirliness of your answers not the subject matter involved. I play the game a lot more by reading (or trying to read) how people react to given situations than by what they have to say in particular. Maybe that's where the disconnect is coming from. For me the handshake is nothing more than an extention of the behavioral analysis that I put into place any way. Do people "act townie" or not. Content analysis and hard data analysis play a part in the game too, but I'm not as good at seeing that as I am the other. I care a lot less about what you have to say and a lot more about how and when you say it. We could be talking about anything and the squirly answers would have gotten the same response. Anyway, I am not trying to make the game less fun for you, but for me the game is about figuring things out. It's not gaining competative satisfaction by bending the rules, it's gathering whatever information I am able to gather in order to solve the puzzle. That's quite a double standard. One alleged conversation I had with the Mod gets one treatment and another alleged conversation with him gets another? I understand your approach to the game, and I try to look at timing but I mostly work in (and expect) careful reading of what is said vs how or when it is said. I'm around and will be willing to consider switching to PCM. I think losing Hockey at this point is a bad idea.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:09:48 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 20, 2009 14:09:48 GMT -5
If someone else switches to Hockey MOnkey just ot be sure of the tie breaker, I'll then switch to PCM
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:10:22 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Jul 20, 2009 14:10:22 GMT -5
Unvote: HM Vote: Precambrian Mollusk
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:10:36 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 20, 2009 14:10:36 GMT -5
Alright, I am off to lunch now I guess.
I'll be back right around 1ish, but I don't think I will be able to make it back before the Day ends.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:11:53 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 20, 2009 14:11:53 GMT -5
Unvote Nanook
Losing a claimed doc is even more of a bad idea.
Any chance of an official vote count on each page? ;D
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Natlaw
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:14:14 GMT -5
Post by Natlaw on Jul 20, 2009 14:14:14 GMT -5
About our claimed Vigilante. It's a bad idea to lynch her. Her kill gains us 1/2 a mislynch* if she gets a Rebel and costs only 1/2 a mislynch if she gets a Townie. Her choice of targets is not influenced by the Rebels. Compare that to our lynch: we do not gain any mislynches by successfully killing a Rebel, and lynching a Townie costs us a full mislynch. Plus, the Rebels will be voting just as we will and will affect who is lynched. Thus, a Vig kill is better than a Town lynch on all metrics--it gains us more, costs us less, and is not affected by Rebels. ( snipped) In the current game, we probably have 8.5 ( = (22 - 5) / 2 ) mislynches if there's five Rebels, or 7.5 ( = (21 - 6) / 2 ) if there's six. Lynching successfully doesn't change the number. Mislynches decreases it by one. Night kills of Town/Rebels change it minus/plus 0.5. The math here is pretty convincing I must say (a mislynch point system for balancing?). If the vigilante picked random (which is either worst case or totally irrelevant*), it's 6/25 * 1/2 + 20/25 * -1/2 = -14/50 = -0.28 mislynch on Night One on average (if we lynch town D1). Lynch first Day random would be 6/27 - 21/27 = -15/27 ~= -0.56 mislynch on average. It is hard to account for interactions though (Storyteller being compulsory in Dr. Horrible had you as save unkillable target, plus with lots of role claims on Day one the chance of hitting powers roles wasn't that big - if there had been more than one vanilla ). *) Killing randomly isn't really what a vigilante will do. If we don't lynch Hockey Monkey tactics might be something to discuss, but that would invalidate the 'Her choice of targets is not influenced by the Rebels' line. So I guess we shouldn't do that? The thought of aliases being provided didn't occur to me until later. When I made my post I was thinking about whether to include the fact that I already brought it up with Nanook who responded 'I flat out don't believe they received cover roles' a couple of posts later. You didn't make any post directly after though, so you could have missed it (I guess I should leave this line out as well to see if that would be your response). On preview: and now we got a doctor claim.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:16:37 GMT -5
Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2009 14:16:37 GMT -5
Well that didn't work. Quoting my previous WoW for the sake of efficiency doesn't work. But what does "WoW" mean? The only think I can think of is the MMORPG, but that doesn't fit the context. Yes I would. You say you didn't bother to ask the moderator about the rules, but relied on your own opinion instead. For someone who likes to carefully read, I'm surprised you don't understand how evasive you've been. Please change your vote.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:17:32 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 20, 2009 14:17:32 GMT -5
Vote PCM seems a bunch of us are kissing the dice and hoping 7 come 11.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:19:30 GMT -5
Post by julie on Jul 20, 2009 14:19:30 GMT -5
I hate the cases against everyone leading so far. HM is the one claim I believe the most. I'm not feeling the case against PCM at all.
I'm being played. I feel like I'm being played. These last-minute shuffles are never a good idea.
Unvote: Captain Pinkies
Vote: PrecambrianMollusc
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:19:44 GMT -5
Post by hockeyguy8435 on Jul 20, 2009 14:19:44 GMT -5
What's the vote at between PCM and HM?
I'm considering changing my vote from Ed to PCM if need to be spare HM toDay. Not that I'm happy about it, but desperate times call for desperate measures.
I'll be here up until the deadline as well, aside from the next ten minutes when I go make a sandwich and come back here to eat it and read.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:19:48 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 20, 2009 14:19:48 GMT -5
No, I said that I DID ask the mod, but that I didn't need his opinion to decide to do what I did.
If I had asked the Mod, gotten his opinion, and done the opposite, do you think we'd both still be here having this cluster fuck of a conversation, Pleo?
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:20:32 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 20, 2009 14:20:32 GMT -5
The thought of aliases being provided didn't occur to me until later. When I made my post I was thinking about whether to include the fact that I already brought it up with Nanook who responded 'I flat out don't believe they received cover roles' a couple of posts later. You didn't make any post directly after though, so you could have missed it (I guess I should leave this line out as well to see if that would be your response). . I remember the 'blue car' post, but I didn't remember the cover role part. The thought occurred to me later after I was reading the current SDMB game. You still seemed confident in the handshake after that. Do you think it unlikely that the Scum got cover roles?
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Natlaw
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:20:40 GMT -5
Post by Natlaw on Jul 20, 2009 14:20:40 GMT -5
The win condition is the second most important thing! The precise details are very important, especially in the end game. I want to ignore this, but as someone mentioned you do get drawn in. I think the difference is that the win condition information that is be known is "you need to eliminate the rebels, don't worry about other third / win stealer parties". Using the specific wording 'the rebels are no longer a threat' for a handshake isn't. Anyway more relevant: Cookies has claimed vanilla. I guess Mollusc is not that likely a mason based on no counter claim, but if pedescribe is lying, he could be a doctor or other power role.
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Merestil Haye
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:20:55 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jul 20, 2009 14:20:55 GMT -5
But what does "WoW" mean? The only think I can think of is the MMORPG, but that doesn't fit the context. "Wall of Words" - an analysis of a player's posts, usually listing and summarising each post.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:22:04 GMT -5
Post by special on Jul 20, 2009 14:22:04 GMT -5
Unvote: hockey monkey Vote: PCM
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:27:45 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Jul 20, 2009 14:27:45 GMT -5
Unvote:Pedescribe Unvoting a claimed doc.
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Day 1
Jul 20, 2009 14:27:53 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Jul 20, 2009 14:27:53 GMT -5
A little over 30 minutes left PCM 6: (NAF, Pleo, Pedescribe, Cookies, Julie, Special Ed) *Hockey Monkey 4: (KidV, Natlaw, Bufft, Peeker) Special Ed 3: (Stanislaus, PCM, Hockeyguy) Pedescribe 2: (Sister Coyote, Mister Blockey) Cookies 1 (Nanook) Nanook 1: (Cookies) Jaade: 1 (Pumpjack) Captain Pinkies 1: (BillMC) Stanislaus 1: (Mhaye)
*Tie-breaking Victim
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