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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 4:07:23 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 16, 2009 4:07:23 GMT -5
I understand. All I can say is that my first PM really fucked with my head with respect to pretty much everything, and I'd really rather not be claiming now at all. Between my first and 2nd PM the role title and win condition changed, but the alignment remained the same. For whatever reason at the time I decided to claim, my brain was more preoccupied with what was different about PMs, not what was the same.
I'd also have to be a pretty stupid false-claiming scum or 3rd Party / PFK / Label du jour, to claim in such a clunky and disjointed fashion with the Vanilla Establishment Quantom citizenry PM right there for everyone to see.
Yeah, yeah queue the "scum would never do that" stuff, but a Vanilla townie isn't necessarily trying to stay alive at all costs, carefully and meticulously weighing every word for maximum manipulative payoff or maximum life expectancy and minimum risk to their person.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 8:25:21 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 16, 2009 8:25:21 GMT -5
On the other hand, a vanilla scum, in a game with no Day talking for scum, might decide that it was worth the risk to try and head off a potential second masonry before it can gain a bunch of steam.
I don't necessarily think you are scum, though it is possible, but I do think there's a real possibility to gain some valuable information Today. If you're scum, then we can probably assume you are lying about receiving multiple PMs, and have a couple people that are 99% likely Town If you're Town, then you're clearly not lying about the PMs, but it also doesn't necessarily mean that anyone else received such a mangled PM. Obviously it lowers the likelihood of Pleo and NAF in my mind(and I'm sure me in theirs) being Town, but not quite all the way down to where everyone starts.
However, with all that being said, I'm not quite willing to vote you yet Cookies. Before I do, I want to ask everyone else. Is anyone else willing to admit to receiving a similarly mangled or otherwise incorrect role PM?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 9:31:30 GMT -5
Post by peekercpa on Jul 16, 2009 9:31:30 GMT -5
However, with all that being said, I'm not quite willing to vote you yet Cookies. Before I do, I want to ask everyone else. Is anyone else willing to admit to receiving a similarly mangled or otherwise incorrect role PM? <snipped> yipes. would everyone who should have gotten a vanilla pm but didn't please step forward.? the rest of you folks stand over there in the corner, please. rebel leader: "i think we ought to aim in the corner." and it's good to see that time does not heal all wounds, pleo.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 9:56:38 GMT -5
Post by stanislaus on Jul 16, 2009 9:56:38 GMT -5
...would that tell us anything?
If no one admits to it, then either a) Cookies is lying or b) hawkeye made the mistake once and once only or c) it did happen more than once, but people don't, for their own inscrutable reasons, wish to discuss their PMs.
If people do admit it, then either a) they're being honest, b) they're scum covering cookies or c) they're scum using cookies as cover.
Either way, we'll be guessing about how good the info is, and what it might it actually mean. Which is just a more confused version of where we are now, with more opportunities to misinterpret and be misled.
As of right now, I'm relatively comfortable taking cookies at her word simply because I think it's more plausible for a mod to make an error handing out 27 PMs than for scum to risk a Day One lynching; in fact, I wonder if town are actually quite happy for vanillas to out themselves this early in the game if it makes power-role hunting easier?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:02:04 GMT -5
Post by stanislaus on Jul 16, 2009 10:02:04 GMT -5
On preview: what peek said.
Boy, I wish I had your knack for clear and pithy communication.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:08:58 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 16, 2009 10:08:58 GMT -5
You're assuming all the errors were made with Vanilla PMs. Simply stating, yes I received a messed up PM does not indicate vanilla necessarily.
As for your reasons for no one admitting to it...
A means we just caught a scum, and that we have 3 potentially semi-confirmed Townies.
B means that we haven't caught a scum, but still have the mini-masonry.
C I basically reject. Unless you can provide me with a good, pro-town reason to keep quiet in this situation, I would consider it strongly anti-town to do so.
And the flip side, someone does admit it.
A means that we can move on from this discussion for at the time being. No mini-masonry, which while not a good thing, it is a good thing to know that it isn't there.
B is actually a good thing for Town. The assumption here is that Cookies is scum and some other scum has decided to back her play. Sooner or later one of them will screw up and be killed one way or another, and when that happens the other will be exposed. How is this a bad thing?
C is similar to above, only now Cookies is assumed Town. I don't see any good outcomes to scum here. I guess if they die first, we'll be willing to lynch Cookies. Assuming Cookies isn't confirmed in some other fashion by then. Or dead. Or both. Regardless, in the end this would simply be a 1 for 1 trade, and unless it's LYLO, I'm fine with that.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:12:24 GMT -5
Post by julie on Jul 16, 2009 10:12:24 GMT -5
I don't see much Town benefit for vanilla outing in Day 1.
It would be an odd thing for scum to do, claiming to have gotten multiple role pms. I would think there would be a risk for mod commentary (maybe not a huge risk, but a risk).
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:13:36 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 16, 2009 10:13:36 GMT -5
Oops missed something I meant to cover also.
Again, why are you assuming the only errors would be made with the vanilla PM? If we accept that it was Hawk's error as opposed to a gambit, then a similar error could have been made with any PM, vanilla, power role or scum. I don't accept that someone admitting to receiving a error PM would out power roles prematurely.
I also don't accept that Hawk making an error is more likely than a scum gambit. The vanilla PM is the same for everyone, as evidenced by the fact that it is posted. A straight copy and paste seems unlikely to produce such an error, though of course not impossible. I very much see it as plausible that a scum would make a gambit like that. A mini-masonry is a very powerful thing for Town, plus they are unable to Day talk if some members don't agree. And don't tell me scum don't take risky gambles. Amnesiac milkman anyone?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:19:31 GMT -5
Post by stanislaus on Jul 16, 2009 10:19:31 GMT -5
I could quibble with some of your individual reasoning, but my main point is we won't know if we're in scenario A, B or C. So what would we actually do with these answers?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:22:17 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 16, 2009 10:22:17 GMT -5
You're right that we won't necessarily know which situation we're in right away. But so what? It'll be more data for the future. A Day from now, or two, or three, or whatever, we'll have a pretty good idea which situation it is, and will then be able to act as necessary.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 10:28:47 GMT -5
Post by texcat on Jul 16, 2009 10:28:47 GMT -5
I must be missing the whole point of this discussion. I have started Day 1 in every game I've ever played claiming to be vanilla town. Isn't that what every single person, role or vanilla, scum or cit or 3rd party claims by default? And since we all now have a copy of the vanilla pm and the whole secret handshake bruhaha is dead, I really don't understand the point of claiming vanilla town.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 11:01:33 GMT -5
Post by stanislaus on Jul 16, 2009 11:01:33 GMT -5
Nanook - fair enough. My concern was we'd be kidding ourselves that we knew more than we did and rush into something headlong. Moving on: If I understand them right, Pleo and Nanook are suggesting that people who were worried about the Merc/Thief being PFK were revealing an ignorance of the town win condition. If that's so, I'm going to suggest that it's not nearly that simple, based on this quote from NAF which paraphrases the wincon AND ponders the risks of PFK. I am going to take a close look at color again to see if I can figure out if any of the third party are PFK (sorry Pleo but the term is useful) of if the win with town after the rebles are no longer a threat.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 11:19:45 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 16, 2009 11:19:45 GMT -5
That seems to be a point of confusion on what I'm discussing. I'm not suggesting anything is a slam dunk at this point. It's all just data points for consideration. Let me try an analogy to make my point clearer.
There was a crime committed last night by 4 or 5 people. They were in a blue car. We have 10 people right here that own a blue car. Is that enough to convict them? Of course not. It's just one piece of evidence.
That NAF quote is more telling than you might think at first glance. The fact that he paraphrased the win con means that he knew what it was. Speculating about PFKs/Third Parties is a good cover in order to draw out more information.
Also, I think the whole PFK/Third Party thing is more telling from a Town standpoint than a Scum/Third Party stand point. Someone ignorant of the actual wording of the win con could be scum, Town who skimmed their PM, or Third Party. But the opposite isn't true. People who know what the win con is are most likely Town.
Also, even if Cookies is telling the truth about receiving a messed up PM, it doesn't necessarily follow that the people who indicated knowledge of the win con before it was posted are not a mini-masonry. Let me repeat something I keep bringing up. The scum cannot Day talk. That means that even if one of them did receive a messed up PM and knew the true win con that not all of them did. Yes, it lowers the percentages some, from say 95 to 80, but it's still more likely than not that NAF, Pleo and myself are Town.
Texcat, I have no idea what you're on about. No one has suggested anyone claim Vanilla Town. There was an implication that anyone who admitted to receiving a messed up PM would therefore be Vanilla Town, but that is an assumption that is not based on any facts.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 11:43:21 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 16, 2009 11:43:21 GMT -5
I am not going to be convinced that Nanook, NAF, and Pleo have anywhere close to an 80% chance of all being Town, and Nanook's post above is rubbing me the wrong way as it downplays the possibility that other errors sent to scum could have explained the very information that the mini-masonry he's trying so hard to keep intact is based on. Talk about things that don't necessary follow.
Further, since the Mod posted the vanilla PM (albeit unfortunately late) and the Mod has forbidden quoting of PMs, I would consider even a true mini-town masonry to be exploiting a loophole which is not how I like to play.
A non-gastard game should be played against the players, not the Mod.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 11:47:37 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 16, 2009 11:47:37 GMT -5
I am not going to be convinced that they have anywhere close to an 80% chance of all being Town based on the attempted handshaking alone, I should say.
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Natlaw
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 11:54:46 GMT -5
Post by Natlaw on Jul 16, 2009 11:54:46 GMT -5
About this 'handshake masonry', the thing is that it is based on a a secret handshake, not because they are actual Masons in the sense that the moderator told them that the other are also town masons. There was a crime committed last night by 4 or 5 people. They were in a blue car. We have 10 people right here that own a blue car. Is that enough to convict them? Of course not. It's just one piece of evidence. That NAF quote is more telling than you might think at first glance. The fact that he paraphrased the win con means that he knew what it was. Speculating about PFKs/Third Parties is a good cover in order to draw out more information. You're ignoring the fact that rebels could know that true citizens drive blue cars or a rebel could even have a blue car. To drop the car analogy: maybe the scum win condition is 'You win when: The establishment is no longer a threat.' or they even have a cover role with the town win condition. Since Hawk has said that we should consider our PMs self-destructed, the latter isn't that likely, but in the former it is easy to replace 'establishment' with 'rebels'. And since scum cannot Day talk, Pleonast call to the moderator for a vanilla town PM could also have been a 'Fellow Rebels, watch out we don't know the exact town win condition!' warning. On a quick search, I don't see Pleonast actual doing the 'Rebels are a threat' handshake, so why did you include him in the handshake masonry, Nanook?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:04:31 GMT -5
Post by julie on Jul 16, 2009 12:04:31 GMT -5
You're ignoring the fact that rebels could know that true citizens drive blue cars or a rebel could even have a blue car. To drop the car analogy: maybe the scum win condition is 'You win when: The establishment is no longer a threat.' or they even have a cover role with the town win condition. Since Hawk has said that we should consider our PMs self-destructed, the latter isn't that likely, but in the former it is easy to replace 'establishment' with 'rebels'. And with a misspelling of "rebels" as "rebles," it could easily be someone putting in the word without having the pm to refer to.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:05:14 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jul 16, 2009 12:05:14 GMT -5
Who said anything about them being actual masons?
He didn't you're right. He might have been calling for the PM on the basis of being a Rebel that wanted to make sure the other Rebels didn't get caught. But that would then require that he knew the win con. With no quoting of PMs, I flat out don't believe they received cover roles. I personally think it more likely than not that he's Town. Obviously your mileage will vary.
I don't understand what you're trying to say with the first part. Do you honestly belive that anything even similar to that is the scum win con? I don't. I think it's a major stretch at best. I would expect a variation on the standard win when you control the vote condition.
Cookies, that isn't even an argument. Hawk might have screwed up, so therefore we ignore it!
Your argument that it's a loophole is your opinion, and isn't something I can refute.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:10:01 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jul 16, 2009 12:10:01 GMT -5
I've been waffling back and forth on whether or not to do this, especially with cookies casting doubt on its efficacy, however more to gain/lose may influence decisions. Also in retrospect my instinctive sneakiness may have made this more questionable than it needed to be. Regarding the merc him/herself. I recall the role of War that I held in my first game on this board, who's win condition was to end the game with himself, one scum, and one town. Clearly that exact win condition is unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were something along that vein to keep the merc from giving too much help to town or scum. I wouldn't give a yes or no on it, but the longer I think on it, the more I feel he/she is not a immediate threat. also simple solution to an earlier question Can you hire the merc to monologue and/or sit on his/her hands?I'm glad for something interesting to look at on day one, huzzah! Sadly if you know me the most telling detail is that it's an a there and not an an, like I would normally write. It actually hurt to write that incorrectly. That was posted before the vanilla pm had been posted. oh and once more Hey mod, can we successfully bid to have the merc do an action that doesn't involve killing, such as sitting on his hands or monologuing?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:16:04 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 16, 2009 12:16:04 GMT -5
How the hell is that not an argument? It is the whole damn reason why I'm claiming. And as far as what the Rebel win condition might be, I am inclined to consider the possibility that you think is such a stretch, Nanook, but my perspective has been influenced by what was contained in my first PM.
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Natlaw
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:41:08 GMT -5
Post by Natlaw on Jul 16, 2009 12:41:08 GMT -5
Who said anything about them being actual masons? You implied it with 'potential second masonry' and 'mini-masonry'. No, I know that isn't saying that they are actual masons. Why would it require he knew the (town) win condition? If the mercenary/thief don't prevent town from winning, then it isn't a major stretch that they don't prevent rebels from winning either. So he could have deduced the loophole if he is a rebel as well.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:45:56 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Jul 16, 2009 12:45:56 GMT -5
Hey mod, can we successfully bid to have the merc do an action that doesn't involve killing, such as sitting on his hands or monologuing?[/quote]
Yes. You may contract the merc to not doing something.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 12:58:08 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jul 16, 2009 12:58:08 GMT -5
Why would it require he knew the (town) win condition? If the mercenary/thief don't prevent town from winning, then it isn't a major stretch that they don't prevent rebels from winning either. So he could have deduced the loophole if he is a rebel as well. Good point. But in that scenario the merc and theif are equivalent to town for this purpouse in that their death would equal a mislynch.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 16:50:13 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 16, 2009 16:50:13 GMT -5
Hi guys, checking in...sorry, I hadn't realized we'd started.
Vote Pollux Oil.
Because his or her vote on Bufftabby is completely frivolous.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 16:50:56 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 16, 2009 16:50:56 GMT -5
Vote Pollux Oil.
Sorry, I thought I'd made that blue when I typed it.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 16:51:35 GMT -5
Post by Archangel on Jul 16, 2009 16:51:35 GMT -5
Vote Pollux Oil??!!
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 16:58:32 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 16, 2009 16:58:32 GMT -5
Um...what about the fact that he (Pollux) unvoted her in the same post? Or that he also vote and then unvoted NAF in the same post? Or Pleo's vote for Peeker?
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 17:29:39 GMT -5
Post by PrecambrianMollusc on Jul 16, 2009 17:29:39 GMT -5
L&G, I may well be out of comms for a few days, I know you are all terribly disappointed. I will be back Monday evening my time, so will be able to do some voting. For the record, I think cookies is on the level and I don't like the attempted handshaking.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 17:36:25 GMT -5
Post by Pleonast on Jul 16, 2009 17:36:25 GMT -5
Yes, that's a claim and I know that some of you might very well start throwing rotten tomatoes at me for making this play, but as you will see I have my reasons. No one should be reading jack crap into any of the responses to the fishing for the win condition or vanilla handshakes, and here's why: Hawk's first role PM to me was incorrect. It was basically a Frankenstein love-child of what appeared to be a vanilla Rebel and a vanilla citizen of Quantom role PM. He later gave me a new one and told me to ignore the first. However, whether it was a legitimate error or Hawk being a Gastard, other players of unknown alignment could have received the same thing. In my mind this negates any insights that you all think you may have gotten from that particular tangent of the conversation. The shared secret strategy works because it's very unlikely that the Rebels had access to the Town win condition before the moderator posted it. The fact that the moderator made a mistake in your case does not mean that he made any other mistakes. In order for the claim handshake between NAF and Nanook to have failed would have required: 1. A second mistake by the moderator's PMs. 2. That mistake to have happened to NAF in particular. 3. Either Nanook received a third munged PM or cleverly/luckily picked up on NAF's breadcrumb. I think that sequence is much less likely than the situation that both NAF and Nanook are Town. Remember that the Rebels have not had a chance to discuss things in secret yet, and so will have a harder time coming up with plans. They're basically flying solo ToDay. The handshake doesn't guarantee that NAF and Nanook are Town, but it's a simpler, more plausible hypothesis than that the circumstances lined up such that a scum NAF or Nanook could fake a Townie handshake. I'm inclined to think that Blockey is Town, as well. And since scum cannot Day talk, Pleonast call to the moderator for a vanilla town PM could also have been a 'Fellow Rebels, watch out we don't know the exact town win condition!' warning. On a quick search, I don't see Pleonast actual doing the 'Rebels are a threat' handshake, so why did you include him in the handshake masonry, Nanook? Nanook has also expressed confidence in my Towniness based on my actions, which is correct but not as clear-cut as their breadcrumbs. My publicly poking the moderator (I also sent a PM describing my rules concerns) had two purposes. First, to prod the moderator to act quicker, because while I'm happy to take advantage of design flaws, I think it's courteous to give fair warning first. But secondly (and this is why the public prodding is important), I wanted to test the waters for reactions. Rebels have different information from us, and it can be hard for them to hide the extra info and the lack of info they have. Specific information like terms used ("threat") and the exact condition (no mention of other teams) is hard to fake. But although my actions are pro-Town, I didn't show specific knowledge of the win condition (intentionally so, since I didn't want to muddy the waters). So I can understand if you don't want place me in the same group as NAF, Nanook, and Blockey. How the hell is that not an argument? It is the whole damn reason why I'm claiming. And as far as what the Rebel win condition might be, I am inclined to consider the possibility that you think is such a stretch, Nanook, but my perspective has been influenced by what was contained in my first PM. The information presented by Cookies is very useful! It's too bad you can't directly quote your original PM. However, you can paraphrase it for us. And you can tell us what any key words are. (Please confirm with the moderator if you're unsure precisely where the rules lie.) It may be possible for us to find slips by the Rebels if there are important differences between their win condition and ours. I must be missing the whole point of this discussion. I have started Day 1 in every game I've ever played claiming to be vanilla town. Isn't that what every single person, role or vanilla, scum or cit or 3rd party claims by default? And since we all now have a copy of the vanilla pm and the whole secret handshake bruhaha is dead, I really don't understand the point of claiming vanilla town. I think the default is that everyone claims to be Town, but an unspecified role. I don't think anyone is asking for vanilla Town claims (I'll ask for vanilla Rebel claims ). Nanook is asking for PM malfunctions. Knowing about those is important, and anyone who received a corrected role PM should let us know. Not the contents of course, just the fact that their PM needed to be fixed.
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Day 1
Jul 16, 2009 18:07:51 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Jul 16, 2009 18:07:51 GMT -5
1. A second mistake by the moderator's PMs. 2. That mistake to have happened to NAF in particular. 3. Either Nanook received a third munged PM or cleverly/luckily picked up on NAF's breadcrumb. Unless you have some insight into the order that Hawkeye used to send his PMs, this (to continue my use of a pet phrase) means jack crap.
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