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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 11:53:35 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 13, 2009 11:53:35 GMT -5
As I have already pointed out..the major flaw in your thought processes and theories, MHaye, is that nobody knew what I was before I was killed. So for that all to have been the case, you have to conceed that:
1. Pede Investigated me 2. CS Enchanted me 3. A Vampire Killed me 4. Something Blocked me
.....all before even knowing what I was. That strikes me as being pretty improbable. Why would, whoever has the power to block, block me? Nobody knew what I was or that I had any power...although there were other countless roles (with powers) on the table by then. I'd think a blocker would be more apt to try to block a Witch or other thing..something that is for certain, or at least a better chance of hitting/blocking something at all.
As I already pointed out, I was found to be Town the Night I was Killed. This means if I was both blocked AND killed, it would have had to have been purely random by the blocker and killer...since it was not revealed what I was until AFTER I was killed. That would have been a block (and kill) in the dark, by the blockers and (going by your theory) a vampire.
Sorry. I can't believe that or that anyone else would think that was likely. For one, that all those things would center around me on the same night...two of them, we know, did (the first two)...but adding the second two to the equation makes it too apt. For two, that someone with the power to block would block me without having any good reason or knowledge that I had anything good. Same goes for killing by Vamp.
Again, I said all this above, too, to FCoD (in post 55). There it is again, I think, clearer and better explained.
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 12:01:57 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 13, 2009 12:01:57 GMT -5
Hold up hold up hold up... what?! Since when is Nanook basically confirmed? We know Nanook's a killer, since DBI the Townsperson claimed he killed Bufftabby. We know Nanook is not a Wolf, since he killed a Wolf. Going on the precedent of Conspiracy 2, if the Cabal have a secret kill, all that would be revealed on a Detective investigation is that the Cabal killed. DBI got the name, therefore this was not a secret Cabal kill. What's left? He's a Vig. (I don't think it likely that he's been recruited - again, precedent from prior games. Idle's description of Vampire recruitment is correct, for the most part. When I read the rules and saw "possible recruitment" I thought it likely that Pleo was reverting the secret power of Wolves or Vampires to work like they did in C1. So it's likely that any recruitment would involve a death and resurrection. Nanook hasn't died in the game.) Huh. Well alrighty then.
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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 12:32:54 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 13, 2009 12:32:54 GMT -5
As I have already pointed out..the major flaw in your thought processes and theories, MHaye, is that nobody knew what I was before I was killed. So for that all to have been the case, you have to conceed that: 1. Pede Investigated me 2. CS Enchanted me 3. A Vampire Killed me 4. Something Blocked me .....all before even knowing what I was. That strikes me as being pretty improbable. Why would, whoever has the power to block, block me? Nobody knew what I was or that I had any power...although there were other countless roles (with powers) on the table by then. I'd think a blocker would be more apt to try to block a Witch or other thing..something that is for certain, or at least a better chance of hitting/blocking something at all. As I already pointed out, I was found to be Town the Night I was Killed. This means if I was both blocked AND killed, it would have had to have been purely random by the blocker and killer...since it was not revealed what I was until AFTER I was killed. That would have been a block (and kill) in the dark, by the blockers and (going by your theory) a vampire. Sorry. I can't believe that or that anyone else would think that was likely. For one, that all those things would center around me on the same night...two of them, we know, did (the first two)...but adding the second two to the equation makes it too apt. For two, that someone with the power to block would block me without having any good reason or knowledge that I had anything good. Same goes for killing by Vamp. Again, I said all this above, too, to FCoD (in post 55). There it is again, I think, clearer and better explained. You like to keep repeating yourself, but the facts are that not only is the scenario you describe as impossible entirely possible, it is probable. 1) Pede's investigation: nobody denies this happened. 2) SC enchanted you: again, nobody denies it. 3) Nobody has been able to explain any other way for DBI's investigation of your death to be null in any other way than a Vampire killed you. There is no other explanation allowed in the rules, barring a secret power. There has been no plausible secret power described to allow for this. Therefore, I must assume that you were in fact, killed by a Vampire. This was seemingly impossible, until Pleonast confirmed that a block will disable self-protections. 4) The only way for a Vampire to have killed you is if you were blocked. If you assume a Vampire killed you, you must also assume you were blocked. So, it's not astronomically far fetched. Obviously you were doing something that someone noticed to have been both investigated AND enchanted. The fact that you are so vehemently denying even the possibility makes me even more suspicious that you have been since converted. To everyone besides Idle: just think about what I'm saying. It's entirely possible that Idle was converted. Nobody has said anything that disproves it. I realize that I'll probably be lynched anyway, and that's fine since I'm essentially vanilla, but there are still 2 night killers out there and at least one Cabal. We are very close to losing this one... --FCOD
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 12:58:27 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 13, 2009 12:58:27 GMT -5
We know Nanook's a killer, since DBI the Townsperson claimed he killed Bufftabby. We know Nanook is not a Wolf, since he killed a Wolf. Going on the precedent of Conspiracy 2, if the Cabal have a secret kill, all that would be revealed on a Detective investigation is that the Cabal killed. DBI got the name, therefore this was not a secret Cabal kill. What's left? He's a Vig. (I don't think it likely that he's been recruited - again, precedent from prior games. Idle's description of Vampire recruitment is correct, for the most part. When I read the rules and saw "possible recruitment" I thought it likely that Pleo was reverting the secret power of Wolves or Vampires to work like they did in C1. So it's likely that any recruitment would involve a death and resurrection. Nanook hasn't died in the game.) Huh. Well alrighty then. Two things. The whole line of reasoning depends on the truthfulness of DBI's claim, which I am assuming true because she's a known Townsperson. If she's not a Detective, all bets here are off. Secondly, I rules out Vampire because the Detective would not have learned the name if Vampire Nanook killed Bufftabby. That should be obvious, but my brain skipped over the necessity of mentioning it. (If DBI turns out not to be a Detective, we've wasted two Days arguing about Idle as well, and pretty much all my arguments will be junk. This is why I am against Townspeople lying. I'm not overly worried about that; DBI was arguing that the Witches should truthfully claim when arguing for the mass claim in Day 4.)
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Day Six
Oct 13, 2009 21:35:32 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 13, 2009 21:35:32 GMT -5
3) Nobody has been able to explain any other way for DBI's investigation of your death to be null in any other way than a Vampire killed you. There is no other explanation allowed in the rules, barring a secret power.[/quoting] Cutting all your blah blah off right here to say: Yes, there has been. Many times. Just because you've not been reading (or been skimming), doesn't mean there hasn't been explanations). As I've said about three times: The role PM is telling you how you COULD get an inconclusive result (IF death by Vamp). It is not saying how you WOULD ONLY get an inconclusive result (WHEN death by Vamp). You are twisting it so it means the second when it really is the first. Stop trying, you've lost. Exactly. We agree. And since I don't believe a Vampire killed me, you're raising a moot point here. I'll ask you again..why would anyone block me? I wasn't said to be Town yet (by Pede) since it happened the Night before the Day he revealed it. So why would anyone block me in the dark? They'd have to just hope that I had some kind of power that was worthy of being blocked. They wouldn't even know if they were successful or not. Sorry, makes no sense, and you're still grasping if you really expect anyone to believe that.
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 8:39:11 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 8:39:11 GMT -5
Cutting all your blah blah off right here to say: Yes, there has been. Many times. Just because you've not been reading (or been skimming), doesn't mean there hasn't been explanations). As I've said about three times: The role PM is telling you how you COULD get an inconclusive result (IF death by Vamp). It is not saying how you WOULD ONLY get an inconclusive result (WHEN death by Vamp). So, you don't have an explanation? Got it. You are twisting it so it means the second when it really is the first. Stop trying, you've lost. Maybe you can just start repeating that the Town won and the scum should stop trying. You know, because maybe if you repeat it enough it will be true! Exactly. We agree. And since I don't believe a Vampire killed me, you're raising a moot point here. I'll ask you again..why would anyone block me? I wasn't said to be Town yet (by Pede) since it happened the Night before the Day he revealed it. So why would anyone block me in the dark? They'd have to just hope that I had some kind of power that was worthy of being blocked. They wouldn't even know if they were successful or not. Sorry, makes no sense, and you're still grasping if you really expect anyone to believe that. Why would anyone investigate you? Or resurrect you? Clearly the Witches and SC noticed you enough to merit using their powers on you. Since investigative powers are sometimes used to confirm townies and Witch Doctors would generally want to enchant Townies, maybe you were exhibiting an overall Townie vibe, one that an anti-Town blocker or an anti-Town Vampire would be looking for. Doesn't seem all that far fetched to me. The facts are, you are the one that first brought up the Vampire recruitment mechanism. It wasn't mentioned anyway, so how did you know about it? Certainly, you played in a previous incarnation of the game, when the Vampires had the power to recruit. Or, were you recruited yourself? There has still not been a scenario described that fits into the public ruleset that can explain the events of Night 3. Additionally, let me ask you this: if I killed you and I'm not a Vampire, what role am I? Secret PFK serial killer?--FCOD
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 10:15:13 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 14, 2009 10:15:13 GMT -5
Additionally, let me ask you this: if I killed you and I'm not a Vampire, what role am I? Secret PFK serial killer?--FCOD Well I think you're a vampire, if that's any comfort.
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 10:21:11 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 10:21:11 GMT -5
LOL, no that is not a comfort to me. Do you at least allow for the possibility that Idle has been recruited? Obviously you agree that he was investigated, enchanted, blocked, and killed all on the same night. Why don't you think it's possible that he was killed and recruited by Kat? We haven't seen any evidence of any other Undead special power and we know it has been included in this setup before, so it's a perfectly reasonable theory.
--FCOD
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Trepa Mayfield
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 10:38:01 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Oct 14, 2009 10:38:01 GMT -5
LOL, no that is not a comfort to me. Do you at least allow for the possibility that Idle has been recruited? Obviously you agree that he was investigated, enchanted, blocked, and killed all on the same night. Why don't you think it's possible that he was killed and recruited by Kat? We haven't seen any evidence of any other Undead special power and we know it has been included in this setup before, so it's a perfectly reasonable theory. --FCOD I don't think he was blocked. I think you can kill vicars despite being a vampire.
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 10:40:58 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 10:40:58 GMT -5
Really? And how would that work?
--FCOD
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 10:41:45 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 14, 2009 10:41:45 GMT -5
Undead secret power, one assumes, other than recruitment.
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 11:40:51 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 11:40:51 GMT -5
I can see how that would fit into the setup, assuming there is more than one Vampire and not all of them have the Vicar killing power.
It's wrong, but believable.
--FCOD
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 11:42:31 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 11:42:31 GMT -5
I'd still love to know what role Idle thinks I am, since he's so sure that I killed him without being a Vampire.
--FCOD
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Merestil Haye
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 13:28:43 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Oct 14, 2009 13:28:43 GMT -5
I have been suspicious of Idle since his return from the Dead, mainly due to his style of argument. He selectively presents facts. Consider; he rushed out to say that the Vampire could recruit. He based this on the Vampire secret power in Conspiracy 1. He has never once admitted that the Wolves had the exact same power in Conspiracy 1, and it worked in the exact same way. Why? One obvious explanation is that he was hiding behind his supposed immunity to Vampire kills, and didn't want us to think that someone else might have recruited him. He ignores answers to questions where those answer cast doubt on his assertions. When Julie was challenged to explain her resurrection, she said in D05.033 that she had been resurrected by the Town's secret power. Idle's next post on the subject was D05.046, in which he proves he read Julie's post, but ignores her (to his case) inconvenient assertion that she resurrected herself. If he had claimed it was highly improbable, or tried to disprove it that would be one thing. But to ignore it and claim it was never even said, when he has read the post, suggests to me that he has no answer. Yet he continued to claim Julie was a converted Vampire. Those two impressions, taken together, are what set off my suspicions that Idle himself might have been converted, and was trying to either get a Witchdoctor lynched (thus eliminating a power role who can slow down the rate of attrition) or bus an Undead for Town cred. The Idle debate dominated Day 5, and not unreasonably either. Idle presents good evidence that he was indeed a Vicar at the start of the game; everything he said about his PMs , especially when he received them, matches with my understanding of Pleo's administrative routine. He still dismisses Julie's claim as unbelievable, but produces no evidence. Then we come to D05.119. He tried to prove that Sister Coyote knew he was Town and therefore must have enchanted him. This is false. Simple inspection proves that SC was relying on a Day 4 post to "know" that Idle was Town - by which time she had already used her power. Then there was the misstatement of the Witchdoctor's power. Early on in the Day Idle claimed the Witchdoctor's power was a Day power. He was corrected, and accepted he was wrong. But now, oh look! It's a Day power again, because he has to refute my pointing out that Sister Coyote didn't know what he was when she chose to enchant Idle. He knew the way the Witchdoctor worked, but chose to state an inaccurate version when trying to refute a point against him. Then, earlier Today, when I showed how he could have been killed by a Vampire despite being immune to Vampire kill, he dismissed it as "unlikely." It's quite clear from all this that, whatever Idle's original alignment, he's playing to confuse people. Confusion is what the nonTown players want, so Idle is playing as if he is not Town. But we know he was Town, so he must have been converted. I really believe that he is now what his killer is - which we have no reason to assume was FCoD since that rests on Idle's unsupported word. Vote: Idle Thoughts I have to add that I don't believe FCoD either. A single Freemason is worthless, except in one case; to distinguish the Omega Wolf from a Freemason when the Seer investigates the latter. The trouble is that we have no Seer, so I don't believe Pleo would have put in a single Freemason. Hence it looks like FCoD is also lying. Vote: FCoD
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 13:49:10 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 13:49:10 GMT -5
Finally, some reasonable thought and logic.
Like I said before, I accept that I will probably be lynched due to my role claim. I have no explanation as to why I'm the only Freemason other than I am basically vanilla for balancing purposes. If anything, I less than vanilla, since the automatic suspicion that comes with being a single Mason would make it more likely that I'd be lynched than a normal vanilla.
But no matter, I suppose it's my job to be lynched instead of a useful power role. Hopefully you'll all turn your attention to Idle next, since we're getting down to the end of the game here. Obviously I'd rather lynch him first, since I know he's a liar, but I don't think we're close enough to LyLo for me to fight kicking and screaming. I just want to make sure something is gained from my lynch.
--FCOD
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 13:54:34 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 14, 2009 13:54:34 GMT -5
Unvote: unvote Mhaye Unvote: unvote cookies
I know that cookies is an admitted killer, and Town needs to get the rate of attrition down, but Town also needs all Cabal dead at this point.
I have to admit that even though I enchanted him I've been very uncomfortable with Idle's insistence that I had to have raised him, and that he must still be Town. Because, really, I didn't. I re-read my role PM, and there was nothing there indicating that just because I enchanted someone they would be immune to someone else recruiting them or some other form of death. I think it is very unlikely that he was recruited by Kat or another Vamp, however.
I really wish I could remember now what specifically it was Idle said that made me confident enough to believe he was Town (and thus Enchant him), so we could go back and see if anyone else picked up on it. Unfortunately, I can't pick it out now. But no, I don't think it's unlikely that four separate people targeted Idle on that one Night.
The most damning thing, though, is Idle falling back on "Witchdoctor is a day power", when it is most patently not, and he's confirmed knowing this.
Vote: vote: Idle Thoughts
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 13:56:26 GMT -5
Post by Sister Coyote on Oct 14, 2009 13:56:26 GMT -5
Oops! (I'm so debating about drawing attention to this. Nonetheless.)
"Because, really, I didn't" is a hangover from the first draft of that post, where originally I said, "because, really, I didn't have any way to confirm his alignment."
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Day Six
Oct 14, 2009 13:57:44 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Oct 14, 2009 13:57:44 GMT -5
Oh yeah, I forgot: Vote: Idle Thoughts .
--FCOD
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