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Day Two
May 31, 2007 21:03:23 GMT -5
Post by cowgirl on May 31, 2007 21:03:23 GMT -5
Although I am loathe to once again hitch my wagon to storyteller, I find I do keep on agreeing with his reasoning with regards to FCOD. And I think that's okay, and here's why:
Last time, he played scum really well. The reason for that is because he played a really good townie. His analysis was, by and large, good for the town, and I believe that if I had that game to play over again I still would have thought he was town most of the time. In this thread he admitted that he spent the first few days acting exactly like a townie would. So even if he's scum, again, now, I still think his reasoning is worth listening to. We must be careful about agreeing with his conclusions about lynch victims, of course, but we that should be the case with everyone. We shouldn't disregard it just because it's coming from him.
FCOD: I don't buy your defense, simply because you haven't done anything totally undefendable. Balance of probabilities, not reasonable doubt.
Here are the parts I find particularly convincing:
First, you were chumming up to me. I know I am town, so to me it really feels like that thing someone mentioned where scum ingratiates themselves to townies to seem trusty. I never said I didn't think you were scum at all - just that your reasoning wasn't making me think so.
Your subsequent posts did. For some reason your bandwagon lost its steam, but I will remind folks of why you were suspected in the first place (the fluiddruid motive hypothesis discussion). (Bolding mine in all cases.)
Post #77 is what makes it disingenuous. To storyteller, you said:
Note the bolded portion of the above quotes. He said "baldly asserting" when what you actually did was say "it's reasonable to assume." The difference between those terms is slimmer than you make it out to be.
What he said was that the pirates would not "make a very obvious night kill for a very obvious reason." This is not at all an unreasonable assumption, especially compared with your "reasonable" assumptions (bolded above) that the pirates killed FD for the reason you speculate.
There's more disingenuity in post #97 when you say you never claimed beat cop (but didn't mention that you did claim Miller).
By disingenuous, I mean that strictly speaking, you're absolutely correct in every particular. But the spirit of what you're saying is quite scummy, and it is entirely consistent with good pirate behaviour.
(Note that I wrote all of the above before I read the latest discussion on your smudging people who suspect you.)
Vote FCOD
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Day Two
May 31, 2007 21:19:51 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on May 31, 2007 21:19:51 GMT -5
First, you were chumming up to me. I know I am town, so to me it really feels like that thing someone mentioned where scum ingratiates themselves to townies to seem trusty. You've got me there. I guess I should be more careful about being nice. Post #77 is what makes it disingenuous. To storyteller, you said: Note the bolded portion of the above quotes. He said "baldly asserting" when what you actually did was say "it's reasonable to assume." The difference between those terms is slimmer than you make it out to be. Definition of assert: to state or declare positively and often forcefully or aggressively. Not the same as "reasonable to assume". What he said was that the pirates would not "make a very obvious night kill for a very obvious reason." This is not at all an unreasonable assumption, especially compared with your "reasonable" assumptions (bolded above) that the pirates killed FD for the reason you speculate. Yeah. He said definitively, "they won't". That's not speculation, unlike my throwing the scenario out as a possibility. There's more disingenuity in post #97 when you say you never claimed beat cop (but didn't mention that you did claim Miller). I've already addressed this in a previous post. --FCOD
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Day Two
May 31, 2007 21:51:05 GMT -5
Post by Kyrie Eleison on May 31, 2007 21:51:05 GMT -5
Why, what, Idle? Why do I not want you to mistake my main point? That should be obvious, no one wants their words to be misunderstood or misrepresented. So what's that mean? Never put it out there what you think or opinions you have? Seems kinda cowardly. How far can you stretch to interpret something in the favor of your chosen point of the day, Idle? In my opinion, you are far too completely self-absorbed to be of use to either pirate or crew, which makes you completely unreadable to me. I'll leave it to others to decide the merit of your claims.
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Post by autolycus on Jun 1, 2007 0:48:29 GMT -5
Avast me hearties, I got me thinkin' cap today! This scurvy dog not be good at thinkin', but I'll put in my piece of eight.
We got bilge rats being offed on the ship. This be no walking the plank though. This be murder! Yarrr, such rotten behavior against fellow crew members is against The Code. The culprit will walk the plank for sure, but how do we find the yellow-bellied varmint?
We should only act based upon what we know, savvy? So, what we be knowin eh? We got the dead bodies, and we got this here log of conversation. What can we learn from those in Davy Jones locker? Not much. So, that leaves us scallywags. Who be caught in a web of lies?
I've been sailin the seven seas for longer than I care to remember, but this be he smartest crew my sore eyes ever seen. Hell's bells, everyone talks all educated like. My point is that whoever the traitor is, he's awful smart.
It's obvious what the killer would try to do. But you see, the killer will know that we know that. But, we know that he knows.... yaarrrrr you see what I'm gettin' at. The best we can do is to look for lies and other strange behavior.
So, who be actin' strange? Who is the scalliwag? Arrrrr, I not be seein' any forked tongues yet, but Zuma's irrational hatred for me strikes me as odd. Do I annoy him or maybe he wants to have an excuse to off me? Scurvy dog.
Other than that, does anyone else think that Gadarene is a little too helpful? I remember from a past life that sometimes the most helpful people are actually the most wicked.
Well, that's all from me for now. Dogs ahoy!
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Post by tirial on Jun 1, 2007 1:15:28 GMT -5
Sooo...wading through the accent in Autolychus post:
Everyone knows what everyone is going to do, zuma doesn;t like him and Gadarene's too helpful.
Is that a rough translation?
Sorry I'm a little busy on shore at the moment, and this thread just keeps growing.
I was looking at FCOD as one of my suspects, but since storyteller's pushing her and I remember how "trusted" he can be, I can't bring myself to vote for her. The other one I was looking at was mhaye, so I'll see what I can find and post later.
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Post by zuma on Jun 1, 2007 2:00:26 GMT -5
So, who be actin' strange? Who is the scalliwag? Arrrrr, I not be seein' any forked tongues yet, but Zuma's irrational hatred for me strikes me as odd. Do I annoy him or maybe he wants to have an excuse to off me? Scurvy dog. I don't know what you find "odd" about it, Autolycus. I made my feelings for your gameplay in M2 well-known in that game, as well as here. Rather consistant, if you ask me. You had the distinction, I think, of getting a unanimous vote, you made yourself so suspicious. However, you ultimately claimed you didn't understand the rules, and do understand them now, so I'll let bygones be bygones for now.
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Parzival
Mome Rath
Let's all strive to do our best today![on:forgot to log out][of:forgot to log in]
Posts: 201
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Post by Parzival on Jun 1, 2007 2:03:53 GMT -5
Auto - I'm with you on Gad seeming a little too helpful. Nonetheless he's posted good general information, without a lot of finger-pointing. If he starts asking us to agree with him on certain people, then I'll be ready to throw him out.
My vote stays where it is. Largely because I don't like that lurkers (like Lakai) can go completely unnoticed while the weak votes for them fall away.
My opinions on other vote-getters, though:
Don't vote or not vote for Flying Cow of Doom based on how you feel about storyteller0910. His attack seems a bit strong but if you want to vote for FCOD, do it. Just don't use storyteller's quotes alone; check for yourself. In my opinion, FCOD is doing a pretty crew-like defense (see post 282 for an example).
The votes for MHaye seem to be all based on one mistake, which could be telling, but it seems a bit thin yet for me. Given that the sentence was obviously contradictory ( it started "That is good news;" before the "harder to win" part) I'm considering it a permanent black mark, but not enough to vote on today.
hockeymonkey - I feel she's just crew not playing well, and not scum. After I hopped in the KatiRoo boat and said "Let's see if we can tip this!" I'm reluctant to take out another crew member. I don't see enough evidence either way (though her death may indeed be useful - I just don't have the bloodlust to push her to it).
Topic for discussion (maybe Tomorrow) that I think we shouldn't forget : If Sneaky Sam is on board, we really need to eliminate him or hope the pirates kill him quick. Otherwise he ends up spilling his guts when his head goes in the noose, potentially revealing prime information. It's late in this Day to get distracted by it, but I felt it should be out there.
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Parzival
Mome Rath
Let's all strive to do our best today![on:forgot to log out][of:forgot to log in]
Posts: 201
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Post by Parzival on Jun 1, 2007 2:08:15 GMT -5
Sorry, Gadarene - I don't mean that I'll automatically mistrust you on what you say about particular people. I just meant that the current pro-crew information is no reason to accept information that comes out later - particularly if it conveniently fits things you've already said. If you're a pirate, you know what you are doing right now and can build a base in the direction you want. I don't see any signs indicating piracy so far, so no worries.
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Post by tirial on Jun 1, 2007 2:33:47 GMT -5
MadThe Swine: "I wonder if the players subbing in might have the players name they subbed in for added to the end of their name, like this Tirila(cookies), Whoever(CaerieD)would be helpful for all I think." I agree with that - it certainly makes it easier when trying to build up voting patterns or defend.
Pleonast P253 & P259 - its a bit difficult to defend when I've only just noticed your vote. Can you give me a link to your post, or recap your reasons so I can defend, as finding things on these boards is proving tricky. Of the top of my head, D2 P142 mentions Cookies had posted 29 times, so he was a mid range poster. Considering P154 I suspect Cookies wasn't contributing much content because he was getting married, and his mind wasn't on the game.
Of the posters who have drawn my attention, NAF, auntbeast and FCOD do stand out. I was more interested in mhaye because he seems under the radar - I get a scummy vibe but can't nail anything down.
Regarding NAF: P252: I'll be honest and say I haven't looked at NAF's posts in great detail, but I don't think you could call him a low content poster - if anything it just seems there's a lot of noise drowing out any clear signal. If he's smudged 11 players then that's nearly half the players (and we're facing 11 pirates, we are in trouble). NAF's comment "FCoD, wow. I really thought that if I turned up the pressure you would crack but...well you have made me doubt my judgment of you as scum." bothers me. I'm not particularly happy about his strategy here. Voting for percypercy in Day One to get a response didn't go so well for us last time, and he should remember that - I certainly do. I think Blastermaster D2 P128 has a very good point.
D2 P269 FCOD says auntbeast's summaries of NAF and Gad are wrong. Now I don't agree with auntbeast's summaries completely, but when AuntBeast Day 2 245 makes a case against a few players, but the only player who seems to take it personally is FCOD D2 250.
I will be blunt and say that I'll probably pay more attention to this game when mafia III ends - I am definitely not on form.
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 1, 2007 4:44:47 GMT -5
With just over ten hours to go the voting stands at:
MHaye 4 (Blaster Master, Gadarene, zuma, hockey monkey) hockeymonkey 3 (Lakai, NAF1138,FlyingCowOfDoom) FCoD 3 (hockeymonkey,storyteller0910,KyrieEleison, MHaye, cowgirl) auntbeast 2 (Mad The Swine,Pleonast,MadTheSwine) Kyrie Eleison 2 (Idle Thoughts, ArizonaTeach) Lakai 1 (panamajack,hockeymonkey) MadTheSwine 1 (capybara) NAF1138 1 (Auntbeast) ArizonaTeach 0 (zuma) Cookies {now Tirial} 0 (Pleonast) zuma 0 (storyteller0910MadTheSwine)
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Post by autolycus on Jun 1, 2007 4:59:25 GMT -5
I guess I'm a night owl, so, before I retire for the night, good night everyone. I'll try to be more helpful in the future. I miss her
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 8:16:06 GMT -5
panamajack:Not my vote, nor I think Blaster Master's. I've articulated my reasons, and they extend beyond a slip of the tongue. (I could be wrong, obviously, but there you go.) Totally understoof.
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Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 8:17:12 GMT -5
...stood. (This is how I build up a high post-count. *smack*)
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 1, 2007 9:05:54 GMT -5
I was looking at FCOD as one of my suspects, but since storyteller's pushing her and I remember how "trusted" he can be, I can't bring myself to vote for her. ARGH!!!!! I can't believe someone missed the, oh I don't know, 5 or so posts that corrected this by now (not all by me!!). FLYINGCOWOFDOOM IS A HE --FCOD
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Post by tirial on Jun 1, 2007 9:27:33 GMT -5
Sorry, FCOD.
Please don't shout - I think I've gone deaf
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Post by Malacandra on Jun 1, 2007 9:40:22 GMT -5
Eh, if only this forum had a, I dunno, gender indicator or something...
Five and a half hours to go, folks.
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Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 1, 2007 9:48:25 GMT -5
Sorry, FCOD. Please don't shout - I think I've gone deafIt's OK. I wasn't yelling at you directly. I just want to make sure nobody misses it this time. --FCOD
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Post by auntbeast on Jun 1, 2007 9:59:15 GMT -5
Boy, FCOD, you sure got your lacy panties in a ruffle.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 10:02:47 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 1, 2007 10:02:47 GMT -5
Regarding NAF: P252: I'll be honest and say I haven't looked at NAF's posts in great detail, but I don't think you could call him a low content poster - if anything it just seems there's a lot of noise drowing out any clear signal. If he's smudged 11 players then that's nearly half the players (and we're facing 11 pirates, we are in trouble). NAF's comment "FCoD, wow. I really thought that if I turned up the pressure you would crack but...well you have made me doubt my judgment of you as scum." bothers me. I'm not particularly happy about his strategy here. Voting for percypercy in Day One to get a response didn't go so well for us last time, and he should remember that - I certainly do. That one damn quote is going to dog me for the whole game isn't it? One more explanation and then I am not going to talk about it anymore. I really believed that FCoD was scum. The only other person that seemed to be on board with me at the time was storyteller so I was pushing FCoD hard to get him to make a more obvious mistake. Instead of letting a huge scum tell slip under the pressure he gave what I thought of as a huge town tell. So I unvoted him and explained why. Since you bring up M3 I did the same thing to Lightnin' and turned out to be right about him not being scum. Am I positive FCoD isn't scum? Not even a little. Was his town tell enough to make me think that I was maybe wrong and needed to look at other people until we have more info. Obviously YES. Ok, that's it. I am done with this conversation. On another topic, has anyone actually gone back to check on Aunt Beast's "smudges"? I know Gad thinks her list is wrong, and even though she says that I have 11 "smudges", her own table only shows 9. Why are we taking what she says at face value? I want to know what she is considering a "smudge."
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 10:12:25 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jun 1, 2007 10:12:25 GMT -5
On another topic, has anyone actually gone back to check on Aunt Beast's "smudges?" I know Gad thinks her list is wrong, and even though she says that I have 11 "smudges," her own table only shows 9. Why are we taking what she says at face value? I want to know what she is considering a "smudge." She says herself that they are essentially subjective, which means they have no real value as a quantitative tool. At all events, I've already said that I don't think being suspicious of a large number of players is in any way scummy in and of itself, so I'm not sure it makes enough difference to be worth spending time checking up on an explicitly subjective list.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 10:32:28 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 1, 2007 10:32:28 GMT -5
She says herself that they are essentially subjective, which means they have no real value as a quantitative tool. At all events, I've already said that I don't think being suspicious of a large number of players is in any way scummy in and of itself, so I'm not sure it makes enough difference to be worth spending time checking up on an explicitly subjective list. Fair enough, maybe I am just a little too hot under the collar. I just think it is interesting that she used a list that can not be checked up on or verified in any way to "smudge" several of the top posters in the game. I can't tell if she is a townie playing badly or a really clever scum.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 10:41:50 GMT -5
Post by auntbeast on Jun 1, 2007 10:41:50 GMT -5
I've been quite clear about my chart. It was merely a + or x system of tracking essentially positive or negative statements about other players. There were many comments that were neutral. I'll say it again.
FOS brings attention to someone and is easily counted VOTES bring attention and are easily counted.
What is not so easily counted or kept track of are the drive by, sort of statements. While each X may not indicate a statement such as "The Heffalump is a pirate." It may very well indicated a statement such as "In my experience such activities indicate a degree of scumminess although I'm not saying Heffalump is a pirate, it certainly is worth looking at."
There is a lot being said by inferring. I wanted to track that. I personally think that it is at least as valuable as the voting/FOSing.
They are without a doubt subjective. Again, I posted my list here. No one else has posted their notes/charts/etc. So feel free to hold my feet to the flame. I'm ok with it. I got my information out where other townies can see it and hopefully/maybe use it.
I got my asbestos panties on and am more than willing to be canon fodder, especially if it helps ferret out the pirates.
While I do personally understand the desire to defend oneself, it is difficult not to, I don't prove that I'm not a pirate by calling anyone else one. I understand where you are coming from NAF, but in my opinion, there is a lot of stuff going on on this Day and paying attention to as much of it as you can and not getting tunnel vision about a particular item seems prudent.
I can't really dismiss or advocate the case against MHaye. It may have been a slip up or an honest mistake, frankly, I didn't even catch his error. It does seem to be a single issue voter type of thing though. At this point, we are all grasping at straws.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 10:48:42 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 1, 2007 10:48:42 GMT -5
While I do personally understand the desire to defend oneself, it is difficult not to, I don't prove that I'm not a pirate by calling anyone else one. I understand where you are coming from NAF, but in my opinion, there is a lot of stuff going on on this Day and paying attention to as much of it as you can and not getting tunnel vision about a particular item seems prudent. You know what, you're right. I am starting to get tunnel vision a bit. Sorry about that. Let me tell you why I don't like your table and then I will move on from that too. The table is too vague. If you want to put together a series of quotes or something along those lines I would be fine with that. But just a simple count of the number of times someone says something you personally think is a "smudge" doesn't really do any good, and just adds to the noise.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 10:58:32 GMT -5
Post by auntbeast on Jun 1, 2007 10:58:32 GMT -5
Well, it is my table after all. I understand it adds to the noise. There is a lot of noise here. It was my way of getting a signal, consider it my own little tinfoil hat. I'm not the best person in the world when it comes to logic problems and I've had a hard time trying to work out how to keep track of so much data on so many people. There are so many different variables. How do I track negative statements and FOS and votes and unvotes and positive statements? Especially since it isn't like I can check my answers. So I may very well be going down the wrong path. I may be doing it wrong. I would *love* to see how folks keep track of all this crap without losing their damned minds. I think it serves the pirates well for us to have tunnel vision.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 11:05:23 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 1, 2007 11:05:23 GMT -5
Well, it is my table after all. I understand it adds to the noise. There is a lot of noise here. It was my way of getting a signal, consider it my own little tinfoil hat. I'm not the best person in the world when it comes to logic problems and I've had a hard time trying to work out how to keep track of so much data on so many people. There are so many different variables. How do I track negative statements and FOS and votes and unvotes and positive statements? Especially since it isn't like I can check my answers. So I may very well be going down the wrong path. I may be doing it wrong. I would *love* to see how folks keep track of all this crap without losing their damned minds. I think it serves the pirates well for us to have tunnel vision. You misunderstand me. If you want to keep it for yourself that's fine. Whatever workes for you. But if you are going to post it and use it as evidence to back up an accusation, we need more data than just your table. Otherwise I could just come out and say that : (WARNING EXAMPLE ONLY): You have smudged every player in the game, and clearly seem to be fishing for a lynch. Of course this is my subjective opinion but I counted 27 times you have subtley smudged other people. Look here is a table of my count. See how that doesn't really give us any information, and it is impossible to verify because you say that it is just your opinion and others may not agree?
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 11:33:39 GMT -5
Post by Gadarene on Jun 1, 2007 11:33:39 GMT -5
auntbeast: You freaking people are really starting to irritate me with your mischaracterization, whether intentional or not, of my case against mhaye. Is it an ironclad case? No, it is not. Is it made up of more than that slip? Yes, it sure as hell is.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 11:34:13 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 1, 2007 11:34:13 GMT -5
Well, I'm going to be leaving to fly to California in about 20 minutes. This will be my last post until tonight or tomorrow. I really don't like leaving when I'm this close to being lynched, but what can I do. I've posted my defense as best as I can, so I leave it in your hands. Please note that I could change my vote to mhaye and possibly reduce my chances of being lynched. Although I'd like to stay in the game, I won't compromise my integrity. My vote remains on the player I find the most suspicious. (That's hockeymonkey if you haven't been paying attention...and I know some of you aren't ;D ). Hope to see you all in the morning! --FCOD
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 12:00:25 GMT -5
Post by auntbeast on Jun 1, 2007 12:00:25 GMT -5
Have a safe trip, FlyingCow. Make sure your underwire bra doesn't set off the metal detectors. Gadarene: I did not specify who in regards to Mhaye's statement. I've just seen it come up a lot, which is why I mentioned it as an example of something that can cause tunnel vision. No personal offense meant towards you.
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 12:41:20 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Jun 1, 2007 12:41:20 GMT -5
auntbeast: You freaking people are really starting to irritate me with your mischaracterization, whether intentional or not, of my case against mhaye. Is it an ironclad case? No, it is not. Is it made up of more than that slip? Yes, it sure as hell is. Would you summarize? I ordinarily wouldn't ask, but it's late in the Day, and my real life day is turning out a heck of a lot more hectic than I'd anticipated. What is your case against, mhaye, possible goof-ups aside?
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Day Two
Jun 1, 2007 13:25:28 GMT -5
Post by Pleonast on Jun 1, 2007 13:25:28 GMT -5
Tirial, my reasons for voting for you (aka Cookies) were 1. Skeptical of early both early votes and FOS's. Kind of unavoidable if we're going to play this game, but she wanted to stay out of it. Easy way to stay out of the limelight. See this post. 2. Defending Auntbeast and capybara. I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable defending anyone on this point, no knowing who's on my side. And not only defending them, but then goes on to FOS the accusers. See this post and this one. 3. Voting for Autolycus because there's "no other appealing alternative". Strikes me as jumping on a wagon. See this post. I realize it's difficult to defend things you didn't say, but from others' point of view, we have to hold you responsible for it, since what was said reflects on the role you are playing now.
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