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Post by Pleonast on Jul 20, 2010 14:05:53 GMT -5
Continue your discussions...
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Post by Renata on Jul 20, 2010 17:43:09 GMT -5
Good lord, sach.
I have to believe he's a townie. Well maybe undead. I can't believe any self-respecting wolf team would encourage that sort of thing right out of the gate on day one. He doesn't strike me as the type to do it just so people draw the conclusion I just did, either.
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Post by Renata on Jul 20, 2010 17:48:27 GMT -5
Oh god, Idle, I don't know why you did that, but the PIS is gonna kill me even if nothing else does.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 20, 2010 20:04:22 GMT -5
PIS? I did it because it seems like it'd be a more town, than anything, thing to do.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 21, 2010 1:09:44 GMT -5
Anyway, here's my plan: If people start voting for me (and I'm betting they might start), I will just activate my disguise power (before Day ends) as Scotsman. That way, I get lynched, survive, and Pleo tells everyone I'm a scotsman.
If I don't die, I'm not going to take the chance of being Nightkilled so I'd use the power (as Scotsman) at the start of Night. That way, if I get kill-attempted Night 1, I, at least, survive one Night and am able to identify a killer the next Day. If I'm not kill-attempted on Night 1, I'm save for Day two as per my disguise power is still good for one whole Day round.
So only after then, on Night 2, would I be in danger of being killed..and even if I am, ah well....it'd still be two full days before I'm found to have been lying about being the Scotsman and the numbers are called into question (although ironic that they're really the truth).
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 21, 2010 4:42:26 GMT -5
It's an interesting plan.
My plan was that we all act straight Town, and save our Disguise power for the end game. You know that this was my plan because I explicitly said it here, in the thread where we can plan our team strategy. Obviously you disagreed. But it would have been far better to discuss that, and your plan, in here before enacting it. There was no reason to come out with it in the first hours of Day One. As nphase says, the two of us are affected by your scheme as well and seeing as how we're playing as a team, it would have been better to include us in your thought process.
That said, here are the pros and cons of your plan as I see them:
Pros 1) If/when no one comes out to call you a liar, you might get some town cred on that score. 2) If you claim Scotsman and prove it by surviving lynch or NK, you'll definitely be accepted as Town. 3) At the least, the Wolves know you're telling the truth about their number. So they might display some PIS we can pick up on. 4) You might pick up a Night One investigation from Witches, who might then explicitly or implicitly back your claim. This will help us ID them.
Cons 1) nphase and I know you are lying. Specifically, we know that there are really 3 Cabalists, that you're not a Scotsman, and that everything else you said is true. We will have to work hard not to let that knowledge slip. 2) Someone else knows you are lying. Our knowledge of the role distribution is an adjunct of our special power, so storyteller is right to say that you are claiming town special power. Actually, someone else has that (probably Witches) so they at least suspect you already. That's potentially three votes you have to worry about. 3) Scotsmen lose their NK immunity after one attempt. So as soon as you become confirmed town, you become a vulnerable target. Vampires who don't want to hit the Vicar will be very interested in this. So your town cred might not last very long. 4) You might pick up an Investigation from the Seer. This is a double-edged sword, but I'm putting it in Cons because the Seer is more likely to find Wolves or Undead for us than to find us. Outing them will get them killed, which will make our wincon harder to achieve.
I'm not sure this plan will really give us a major strategic benefit. But we're committed to it now. My suggestions for how we proceed:
1) nphase and I must be sceptical. A good line of attack is that you are role-fishing, begging for unnamed roles to come forward. Maybe you're a wolf who's trying to inflate the size of his team while fishing for protective roles. 2) You need to have an explanation for why a Scotsman would be given this role-list. It doesn't seem an obvious choice. 3) Although there are advantages to using the Scotsman power to flush out a Night Killer, I think you're better off claiming toDay when you've picked up enough votes. It'll probably stop anyone trying to kill you, and might get a Witch investigation.
If you agree or disagree with any of the above, please tell us in this thread before surprising us in the main thread.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 21, 2010 6:36:50 GMT -5
I've just realised the major, major drawback to your plan.
If you are believed, and your list is believed, nphase and I are effectively unable to use the Disguise power to make role-claims. We can't claim something not on the list - which was always the safest option - because no one will believe us. And if we claim something on the list, we'll be counter-claimed by the true role.
The Disguise power was a major asset for us, and you've just burned at least half its value away. The only way to get it back is for you to die. Which also makes it harder for us to win.
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Post by Renata on Jul 21, 2010 7:39:40 GMT -5
PIS? I did it because it seems like it'd be a more town, than anything, thing to do. I mean the hardest thing for me as mafia is to react believably to complex situations like this where I already know the answer. By far the hardest thing. I usually have a Day or two to get my feet wet before I have to deal with stuff like that -- get some "normal towniness" behind me first. This is going to be very hard for me -- I even wanted to post last night and found myself paralyzed of saying the wrong thing. On a different note, notice septimus speculating you switched one Town with Cabal (bottom of page one, IIRC). (He stated it backwards, but I expect he actually means the opposite.) Let's bookmark that for if you are found to be Cabal at any point and septimus is still around. Also, your comment about the wolves is true to some extent, though everyone's going to be feeling a bit of PIS-y awkwardness. I'll be out half the day, more later. (Also, yeah, what stanislaus just said to some extent, though I think it's a bit more complicated than that -- anyway more later.)
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 21, 2010 10:30:07 GMT -5
Yeah, I do realize with the list posted as is, it's sorta messed for you two now but... 1. If/While I'm believed, I might survive and you'd all win anyway. 2. If I die...then it would be revealed, eventually, I was Cabalist..and that would give you all a good reason to discredit the whole list. I'm sure you'd not be alone in that either. Most would (especially the wolves, heh) probably say, at that point, something along the lines of "Well, he was Cabal, so I don't know how much faith we can put in his list, for all we knew, he made it u completely". Yeah, Stan's pro point 2 was all I was thinking about at the time, I admit. I actually find myself HOPING I get lynched toDay.....that way I'm confirmed, at least until I die..and even after death, I'll have two days or so (unless the coronor investigates, but dunno why they would if I was all of told, by the mod, that I was the Scotsman). It'd work out great if I were lynched on Day one or two and had my "free lynch escape" available either time. Er..not that I'm saying I want you to vote for me. It's just nice to have a possible failsafe.
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Post by Renata on Jul 21, 2010 11:13:41 GMT -5
I think stanislaus is right we can't really claim anything that's not on the list now -- and I'd go further, not now or at any other time of the game. There would be no excuse for not calling you a liar toDay (or at least trying to get you lynched without making the role obvious). Mass claims will also be problematic.
Anyway, what's done is done.
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Post by Renata on Jul 21, 2010 14:27:36 GMT -5
BTW I disagree that Idle should give any reason why he was given that information, if it comes to that. If he claims Scotsman, people will come up with possibilities on their own -- for instance, that it gave the Scotsman incentive to claim early, which might (handwaves wildly) be important for balance somewhere, somehow. Anyway, he should just say no reason was given.
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Post by Renata on Jul 21, 2010 20:58:45 GMT -5
Idle, between them sach and story are getting very close to calling you out as a liar, I think. You say explicitly your information is not a secret power (ironically, it isn't labelled as such for us), yet they are both saying it must be. I'm wondering if I should just vote you on the discrepancy -- sach does have a good point about the Undead from last game having information as their power.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 22, 2010 3:55:14 GMT -5
Our strategy right now should be to get Idle confirmed, and with a good chance of seeing the end-game. Here are the ways to get confirmed as a Scotsman:
1) Activate the power toDay and let yourself get lynched. This is bad because people will want to know why you didn't claim and make them waste a lynch. Either sach or story has already published the Wolf Secret Power from last game which let them copy roles, so if you act suspiciously there's a chance someone will guess right. 2) Activate the power toDay and claim. You almost certainly won't be lynched. You will probably be investigated. That investigation will come up trumps for us, and with a bit of luck we'll be able to spot Witches. 3) Don't claim. Activate the power toNight. Get attacked, reveal the ID of the NKer. This is a long shot because it's by no means certain that you'll be attacked. 4) False claim Freemason. This marks you out as killable but hopefully not so important that you get a Witch protection. Then as above.
Of these, I think the surest way to get you accepted is 2). There needs to be enough pressure on you to justify claiming. Post some bluster about special powers -enough to look defensive and suspicious. Maybe try to magic bag a little. When you're forced to claim, be bitter that people wouldn't just leave you alone.
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Post by Renata on Jul 22, 2010 8:09:02 GMT -5
Thanks for seeing the big picture -- I tend to get hung up on details. I think you're right. It's not a foolproof plan, but then if anything could be, this wouldn't be a game.
I just want to comment on squink's vote for me here, since it'd be out of place in the main thread -- my "style", so to speak, has been very strongly influenced from the other site I've been playing most of my games at lately, where the pace approaches light speed compared to here. Day phases are 24 or 48 hours. There are often lots more players. Posts are necessarily short, sweet and to the point for most of the game from most people. You really learn how to pick out scummy tone/tactics/reaction given *very* little to go on. My vote for bufftabby would be dead typical over there; nobody would even blink. Here it really does stand out, despite that it's honestly the post that feels scummiest to me out of all of them (you two excepted).
Now I'm left wondering if Squink's response is itself honest.
Stan, can I give a word of advice, or something? Be very, very careful when you're accusing someone of something to be accurate about it -- doubly so when you're referring to your own teammate. You accused Idle of fishing, but he hadn't (at least in not the way that you implied -- you could argue he was trying to get a magician or a vig or whatever to claim, but you didn't make that argument. Furthermore, sach did fish, rather blatantly, and that was left uncommented-on). Sooner or later someone is likely to notice the smear, but it's less likely if you don't repeat it.
Sorry if it's annoying that I say that, but it's something I would probably notice if I were town.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 22, 2010 11:02:11 GMT -5
I take your point. I was trying to argue that he was trying to get a Magician or Vig to claim, but if it didn't come over I'm happy to back away from it. In fact, I've just voted for Eureka
a) because making cases is a townie thing to do and b) because I'd rather not lead an Idle bandwagon and no-one else is voting yet.
Idle, if you don't have enough votes to justify a claim - and you should be claiming at the latest[/end] 24 hours before Day end - then I think you should assume you'll be investigated and use the power anyhow. The worst outcome would be that you get investigated without using the power.
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Post by Renata on Jul 22, 2010 12:20:47 GMT -5
I don't think a simple and understated clarification would go amiss if you find the context to do it.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 23, 2010 1:16:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't claim Scotsman. I wouldn't claim anything. I want to be lynched toDay. That way Pleo tells everyone I'm a Scotsman, heh.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 23, 2010 1:21:18 GMT -5
I'm actually thinking of (tomorrow--if I don't have any votes) starting a "plan" to get everyone to say just "yes or no" to "are you a role on my list?"....claiming it's for Towns own good and that Town would have nothing to lose by answering yes--that it'd just be wolves, cabal, or undead with the problem of answering, because by admitting they're a role on the list, it takes away false claims they could do...you know what I mean? Whereas Town would/should have no worries about saying "oh yeah, I'm Town--I'm on that list" However--and here's my hope--I know how people play this game...they'd accuse me of role fishing and I bet you dollars to donuts that people would start voting for me, saying I'm trying to draw roles out into the open (which, in a way, I'd be doing). What they won't know is that they'd be playing right into my trap BY voting for me, which is what I'd want.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 23, 2010 1:27:38 GMT -5
Or I can wait and I might be investigated at night by the witches or the seer...that'd confirm me too as long as I activated Scotsman at the start of Night and if I'm not lynched.
Either or works...I just checked the thread for when Day ends, though, and it ends farther away than I thought so I'll hold off of doing the "Oh, just answer yes or no to "are you a role on the list?"" and get your thoughts first....if it's liked, maybe I'll put it into play on Monday.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 23, 2010 9:26:14 GMT -5
I think trying to force people to answer questions about their role is a good way to get votes.
On claiming, not claiming: I think that if a true Scotsman refused to claim and thus cost town a lynch, I'd (if town) be pretty ticked off. It's definitely good to get mod-confirmed, but you'd have to be prepared to argue that town hasn't wasted a lynch. Also, once you've been lynched you'll publicly lose your immunity and I suspect that might draw Vampires.
Getting investigated would be excellent - the trick is to be suspicious enough to ensure that. I'll try to subtly push for that (I have a bit already) by pointing out that there are other ways to establish your bona fides. But it is a bit of a gamble.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 23, 2010 12:15:45 GMT -5
Yes, but I'm not Town, so I don't care if they waste a lynch. I realize what you're saying, though, and agree that people will be like "Why didn't you SAY anything?"..but I always have the fall back of "Um, this is mafia..would you have believed me? Sorry, but it was best, in the long run, to have me MOD CONFIRMED, that way it puts it to rest once and for all" I think Town would not be happy but would begrudingly keep me since, after all, I'm "Town".
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 25, 2010 3:49:21 GMT -5
That's right Pollux..vote for me... yes...yes....that's a good boy.... Exactly what I want you to do...
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Post by Renata on Jul 25, 2010 15:43:16 GMT -5
LOL.
Just so you guys know, weekends suck rocks for me. I'll be back tomorrow.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 25, 2010 15:59:52 GMT -5
Tomorrow I'm going to turn on the "Everyone say either 'yes' or 'no' to being a role on my list" spiel very strongly and heavily...and I'm hoping it gets me more votes for "role fishing". I'm certainly going to try to come off seeming like I'm fishing for roles.
and, if worst comes to worst, I can always vote for myself and, if really need be, on Tues, tell everyone to vote for me since I'm the Scotsman, giving the benefits as "I wouldn't die" and "I'd (and the list) be "verified"."
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jul 26, 2010 3:01:30 GMT -5
Okay, time to start. Going to bed now but I put the seeds in place of starting the "everyone either answer yes or no" tirade I'll be going on all day tomorrow. I'll lay it on thick and hard (wow, that sounds so wrong) in hopes of votes. If nothing else, maybe I'll start annoying people so much that they'll vote for me just to make me stifle myself, hah.
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Post by Renata on Jul 26, 2010 8:49:49 GMT -5
Holy crap, Idle, I think your fishing for wolves has borne fruit. Post 146 MHaye. Does that scream of PIS, or is it just me?
I hate coming back after a weekend. So many not-us mafia, so little time ...
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Post by Renata on Jul 26, 2010 8:55:02 GMT -5
You know, all of Storyteller, sachertorte and now MHaye are seeming to lead strongly toward if your power isn't a complete lie, it's by definition a secret power -- yet you have denied that outright way back on page one. They should by logic all be calling you out as a liar. Yet none of them are.
Could they all be non-town, and afraid to jump on this because they think there's a good chance you're town and lying for a good cause -- and they don't want to be seen as the proximate cause of getting you lynched/forcing you to claim?
I'm not sure if I should bring this up or not. I'd pretty much have to come down on the side of "this might not be a secret power, Pleo or no Pleo" to do so, which would be tricky.
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Post by Renata on Jul 26, 2010 8:56:35 GMT -5
I think trying to force people to answer questions about their role is a good way to get votes. On claiming, not claiming: I think that if a true Scotsman refused to claim and thus cost town a lynch, I'd (if town) be pretty ticked off. It's definitely good to get mod-confirmed, but you'd have to be prepared to argue that town hasn't wasted a lynch. Also, once you've been lynched you'll publicly lose your immunity and I suspect that might draw Vampires. Getting investigated would be excellent - the trick is to be suspicious enough to ensure that. I'll try to subtly push for that (I have a bit already) by pointing out that there are other ways to establish your bona fides. But it is a bit of a gamble. Indeed, and one of those risks is that someone looking out for such things (wolf, vampire) might see that you being the Seer.
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Post by stanislaus on Jul 26, 2010 11:15:40 GMT -5
That's a fair point. I'll be a bit more explicit, then, and phrase it as "not telling power roles what to do".
Speaking of risks, I still think there's an excellent chance that if Idle is lynched as a Scotsman, he'll be attacked at Night.
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Post by Renata on Jul 26, 2010 13:14:37 GMT -5
Yes, that's definitely possible. Though so is protection from the witches, provided no other more "useful" claim has come along in the meantime.
I had a thought last night that Vampire might be a very useful disguise for one of us down the road, depending on the circumstances. It would protect from a wolf kill and give us a kill of our own for one night. That sort of thing might be vital.
Your post against Special Ed is really, REALLY nice. I think it could attract some more. I might pile on myself if I can get more than five minutes at a time free. Argh.
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