RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 7, 2007 21:23:10 GMT -5
*Note, Mod Edit? Can we make Dotchan1.0's name Brown up there in the chart under Day1, and under "not voting' in day 1? PART THREE: MY THOUGHTS FROM THE CHART Anyways, the thing is. I REALLY dislike HockeyMonkey's Bandwagoning Ideas, you whole bringing up of the Bandwagons using your data. Because it's really confusing, and I feel that you're just trying to bring up certain names while your "voting chart" could possibly hide the scum. Namely, your chart doesn't point out who DID NOT vote at the end of the day. Two names stood out to me in my chart. Atarus, This is the thing I can finally explain my uneasy feelings about you! You're a very vocal player, which is good. You often defend placers, and doubt others. You have picked your game up from Day 1. Yet, though you seem to have your votes placed all around during the days as they go by (as hockey's charts show), at the end of the Day, you're never up on the board. Why is that? I mean, it's only two days, but still. It's part of why I felt so uneasy. You have ideas, and you cast doubt, and you buffer players, but at the end, Your name hasn't been up for casting a vote . I feel nervous by it it, because I see it as a potential Survivor Scum tactic. Though you were willing to keep your vote on Drainbead currently. Interesting. That's also why i dislike Hockey your bandwagon calling, it created a huge pool of people (who cast votes liberally). But in mafia, scum want to HIDE amongst the townies. Now you keep bringing up those at the top, but ignore the middle and bottom, and if you had looked at those you would have seen something. Currently, my thinking is you deliberately didn't look at those. And that your voting chart is deliberate in that it allows scum to hide out. By neglecting those on the bottom, those who haven't voted as much or are slipping through the cracks. I feel that we should target those first, (1) because that's a smaller pool, and (2) frankly the "bigger" posters will slip up and once we have a dead scum up there we can start tracing the votes they cast. So far the only trend I saw was this: GreedySkum: On Day 1, he quite effectively "hid" his vote. I remember him voting, then he unvoted, and simply never voted again. Easy enough that he wouldn't show up on the radar, but enough to show up on the charts. --This to me is what I worry that the Mafia Is currently doing. The other big odd thing in the charts Oi noticed (and the one you should have picked up, Hockey if you were looking thru all the voters rather than just the top). There is ONE player who has NEVER EVEN CASTED a vote. He'd never show up on Hockey's chart. AT ALL. AND HE DOESN'T. Go ahead to Hockey's Chart and Look for him. You won't see him up there. OR anywhere else in there! The Data neglects him, (and I feel deliberately hides him). Mhaye has NEVER voted in this game according to Hockey Monkey's Data. He got voted for once by MadTheSwine. But never voted. Is he actually still in the game? ( ) Like... Jesus, man. This is Mafia. How'd you go like 2 weeks without voting EVER? That's the major points I got from the info, but maybe the rest of YOU guys can look at it, and since you know your roles, insert in the appropriate color for yourself, and then see if you see anything odd about the trend. In my opinion: the Mafia have been sitting back in this game, and just laughing while Townies come up with reasons to drive each other up the wall and then in the last 2-3 days start voting to finish off the major votes. Or they've simply been able to hide by not voting. This is why I'm very PRO-Lynching. Alot of the Day 1 data is incomplete, because there were supporters of the "no lynch" movement, so we can't count where their votes could have gone. But right now: My big 3 of Suspicious People (yes, I'll UN-FOS all previous people on the list, to create a new list): HockeyMonkey, Mhaye, and Atarus. I'm comfortable voting for any of those 3, because I think it's possible at least 1-2 to even 3 of them are scummy. HM and Mhaye more so. I'm curious about Mhaye, just from his Lack of voting Ever.... Is this really true? Or did HockeyMonkey lose your votes somewhere?Either way in the meanwhiles: Vote HockeyMonkey because you seem the scummiest, for your your "Top Dog" explanation, and for creating what I think was a deliberate attempt to protect scum by the creation of your "Bandwagon charts" and then neglecting those who post the least, and not even giving thoughts to that as a scum option, but rather choosing to work with the more difficult of the two data sets (Those who actively vote vs. those who don't). The rest of youse, any thoughts just on the voting? Maybe you see something I'm missing. Or perhaps that something stands out as suspicious to you?
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Hockey Monkey!
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This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Oct 7, 2007 21:57:30 GMT -5
I brought up bandwagons, because of Idle's assertions that I was on a bunch of them. I didn't think so, so I showed why. He and I have different definitions so that argument hasn't amounted to much.
I haven't listed the people who didn't vote simply because the day ends immediately when the magic number is reached. Sure, scum can hide in there, but pointing out the fact I thought would penalize more innocent people who didn't get a chance to vote before the hammer. YMMV.
I keep up with all the votes and unvotes so I can see where ALL of the votes have been. Taking those out paints a cleaner, but less accurate picture. I post my work for the benefit of others. I missed completely that Mhaye hasn't voted at all, because I don't really do any indepth analysis of the data until we get a scum. If you hadn't been looking at my work, you would have missed that too. I do find it very strange...very strange indeed...that he has been participating but hasn't placed a vote.
My vote for Cookies was based on my previous suspicions, and when she mentioned Top Dog, I thought she was blatantly flaunting that she is scum. Top Dog has become somewhat of a running scum joke in SDMB mafia games.
If you don't like my voting list, don't use it...but there is no hidden agenda for me to do it. It's pure data. Manipulate it as you wish. If you torture numbers long enough you can make them confess to anything.
unvote cookies
vote mhaye
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 7, 2007 22:39:27 GMT -5
drainbeadThank you for the roleclaim. That makes a lot of sense considering actions taken. Would anyone like to counter claim? And if nothing comes forward, would you like to claim as well Cookies? Yeah, let's get everyone to roleclaim, why don't we? Wash or not, you're looking mighty suspicious to me. As for Cookies, well, I think the sooner you role-claim the better, as if you DO have information that helps the town, the more time the town has to digest and work through both yours and drainbead's information, the better. Snipped. As I said above, I disagree. Roleclaiming just makes it easier for scum to know who is who. Okay, thoughts. Like Cookies, I do not believe Drain Bead's claim either. Why? Because it just stinks to me. And more and more I'm realizing that Ui made a lot of sense for all of his weird posting styles. I do believe Drain Bead is a roleblocker. I even believe there's a good possiblity that she's that character name. I do NOT believe that her/her character/that role is a pro-town role. And yes, from what I've read, I DO realize that her character IS a good person in the show apparently. Doesn't change the fact that I don't think she is in this game. Now that I have my thoughts on that out...I'm keeping my vote where it is for now. However I may change it in the next few days depending on how many votes others have combined with how suspicious I find those people. If Drain Bead is not going to have near enough votes, then I won't waste a vote on her, even if I do think she's lying. I see a few people saying they find Hockey suspicious for a bit now and she even has a vote on her now. She's one I would/will be happy to switch to when/if it's apparent there's going to be no lynch of Drain Bead toDay. And lastly, I am one who thinks that Cookies should NOT claim "ASAP". I'm one who thinks that it's best to wait until the hammer is about to actually drop. I think this about ANY Townie, actually.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 7, 2007 23:31:15 GMT -5
And lastly, I am one who thinks that Cookies should NOT claim "ASAP". I'm one who thinks that it's best to wait until the hammer is about to actually drop. I think this about ANY Townie, actually. Just on the Role Claiming bit till the last minute. Really? ( ) I think it sucks at the last min, because if you have a townie or a potential power role claiming a few hours before lynch, we then get a jumbled mess of vote switching resulting in someone randomly getting lynched w/o much analysis on the matter. I do agree with holding off on the claiming, but I'm of the mindset that 24-48 hours before a lynch is a good time to give people time to SEE the Claim, and to try to make heads or tails of it. How is waiting until the very last min useful for Townies? Because then scum could wait till the last hour, then Claim doctor, and the REAL one might never be present to counter-claim giving the scum a chance to freely get away. I dislike the whole leaving it up to the last minute sort of thing. I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on that * And yes, from what I've read, I DO realize that her character IS a good person in the show apparently. Doesn't change the fact that I don't think she is in this game.- Idleand also, one other note of clarification I have to ask: Are you saying you don't think Kylee (the NAME) is in the game or that Kylee is a GOOD character in this game? Basically is the "she" referring to Drain, or to Kylee, I guess is my question.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Oct 8, 2007 0:19:58 GMT -5
Atarus, This is the thing I can finally explain my uneasy feelings about you! You're a very vocal player, which is good. You often defend placers, and doubt others. You have picked your game up from Day 1. Yet, though you seem to have your votes placed all around during the days as they go by (as hockey's charts show), at the end of the Day, you're never up on the board. Why is that? I mean, it's only two days, but still. It's part of why I felt so uneasy. You have ideas, and you cast doubt, and you buffer Atarus, This is the thing I can finally explain my uneasy feelings about you! You're a very vocal player, which is good. You often defend placers, and doubt others. You have picked your game up from Day 1. Yet, though you seem to have your votes placed all around during the days as they go by (as hockey's charts show), at the end of the Day, you're never up on the board. Why is that? I mean, it's only two days, but still. It's part of why I felt so uneasy. You have ideas, and you cast doubt, and you buffer players, but at the end, Your name hasn't been up for casting a vote . I feel nervous by it it, because I see it as a potential Survivor Scum tactic. Though you were willing to keep your vote on Drainbead currently. Interesting. I've voted 4 times now. Twice Day 1 (Mad and Cat). Once Day 2 (wtf) and now once Day 3 (drainbead). You can say that I haven't been on a final vote at the end of the Day, yes. But on Day 1, I had my votes on Mad and Cat for a significant amount of time. When I made a vote, I stuck to it. I voiced suspicion of whatthefrak a good day or two before I voted for him, and kept my vote on him until he ended up claiming. You can point your suspicious finger at me for not having a vote at the end of the Day, but honestly if you do that, to me it seems like you're going to end up being suspicious of anybody that wasn't on a final lynch bandwagon. If I don't vote for anybody at the end of the Day, I look scummy. If I one-off vote (like hockey did Day 1, and it has been brought up aplenty) I look scummy. So basically, the only way to not look scummy is if you're on the final vote wagon? Well, I would have voted for ui at the end of Day 2, but I was away for the morning/afternoon and when I got back, people were debating about whether to cast the hammer vote on him, and I wasn't just going to pop in and go "HAMMER TIME!" while people were debating it. When I came back a second time, the Day was over already. (And if you want clarification on why I didn't vote for zumachan at the end of Day 1, I already explained that to Cat in a post in Day 2...I can find a link to it if you really need it.) Mhaye not voting at all strikes me as very suspicious. I remember lots of posts about him "looking through information" and "I'll post something informative soon" but he never seems to get around to it. He appears helpful without having to help. I do have an issue with voting for him at the moment, though, since he's going to be travelling soon and I think he won't be around to defend himself at Day's end, and I don't want to force somebody to the gallows without the chance to roleclaim. I am considering changing my vote to hockeymonkey for the fact of this: If you don't like my voting list, don't use it...but there is no hidden agenda for me to do it. It's pure data. Manipulate it as you wish. If you torture numbers long enough you can make them confess to anything. ...I think hockey has been doing that herself with the still-running bandwagon argument between her and others. However, weekends are slow-traffic days, so I'm still waiting for a few more people to check in before I remove my vote from drainbead. Also, Idle's thing about last-minute role-claiming really tweaks my radar. I think that was kind of what screwed ui at the end of yesterDay. He claimed too close to the deadline and came up with vanilla townie, and without enough time for the town to digest the information he got lynched.
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RoOsh
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Post by RoOsh on Oct 8, 2007 0:51:50 GMT -5
You can point your suspicious finger at me for not having a vote at the end of the Day, but honestly if you do that, to me it seems like you're going to end up being suspicious of anybody that wasn't on a final lynch bandwagon. If I don't vote for anybody at the end of the Day, I look scummy. If I one-off vote (like hockey did Day 1, and it has been brought up aplenty) I look scummy. So basically, the only way to not look scummy is if you're on the final vote wagon? No, but it IS a scummy tactic to look active but then not appear to be active. That's the key thing. When I think of you, I think of you as an "active player". So then when I go to the voting records for the final lynches and votes, you're not on there. Because you've voted during the days, but when it comes to the End of the Day, something has caused you to "drop" your vote. To me it's just an easy way to never have blood on your hands. It's a way to look VERY townie, especially later in the game. And the only people who would be super focused on making sure that no blood -and thusly no suspicion- would come onto them are Scummy people. By not having a vote on ANYONE at the end of the day, it's an effective way to hide in the background. Both Atarus and Mhaye stood out to me as "hiding" players, especially by the way HockeyMonkey Kept her records. Keep that in mind as well, I don't think I've found 1 scum, but I think this could be a group effort. - Mhaye was pretty much all but hidden on her lists. And I consider him really scummy for it. Especially, because I notice him all the time, and consider him active. But alot of his posts are simply keeping up in the "Boost your counts" sorta thing rather than against players. That and the NO VOTES AT ALL ever case blew my mind. When I saw Mhaye's name at first I was like... wait. Is he even playing the game? Who is he? Then I realized it was the PostKeeper! Who's going to Holland! But I see him all the time! He's active! So why hasn't he EVER voted? - Atarus is also there, because It's a less drastic example of what mhaye was doing. Mhaye had NO votes, so obviously he'd never leave a vote at the end of a Day either. But atarus, you would be doing the same thing, except your posts always have content. That's why I felt so odd about you. You'd have all these ideas and reasons. But then at the end of the Day, what was the result? nothing. Either you find no one suspicious at the end of the day... or you just don't like voting. Both of which I dislike. You would be less suspicious if you had placed a vote out there, even if its a wasted vote, it's still "on the record" then. But to me, it's like you're acting scummy, because you're doing sleight of hand magic tricks. You're showing up and waving your hands, but at the end of the day, there's nothing for it. But I think of you as being real busy and full of good ideas. But why not vote for your #2 most suspicious then? Or your #3? or #4 even? My style is I always want to leave info, but I do so as well with my vote, I always try to vote for who I believe is the most suspicious. and I hate the idea of No-Lynches. A variant for the StoryTeller Idea would have been everyone just vote for who you are most suspicious of rather than NOT VOTING, PERIOD. That's terrible play. - Greedy I think was trying to do that. He voted once, unvoted, and then just hid. That to me is "smart scum" for what was going on day 1. People are calling out into bands for Voters and Non Voters. It's easy to align yourself with the "less aggressive" of the two, and evade suspicion then. Because the Aggressive will ALWAYS be suspicious. And if a scum or two hides among the Non-Aggressors, he can always just say "well, I just didn't want to hurt anyone", it's just playing the Long Game. Sure it may not lead to a lynch, but it helps the scum evade longer by building a "pro-saving townies" vibe. I dislike that, and It's one reason I'm suspicious of the 3 people I FOSed. Because I feel that one could give easy cause for the other. Hockey's rallying against the Most, while ignoring the lower tiers, allows for scum to hide in the lower tiers. And posting and defending players, builds up a "pro-town" vibe from individual players as being a person of having ideas and such. But by not voting/HAVING A vote at the end of the day, your votes during the day then just seem like you're playing it up. Because even if your #1 choice in the last hour seems doubtful and you unvote, you could then vote for YOUR #2 scummiest, even if it won't lead to a lynch, it at least shows you're standing behind your ideas. Like I tend to think of you, Atarus, as the Great Defender. You give (quite good) comments on ideas, strategies, and your opinions of players. But I tend to see them as mostly defending them in my mind, or when you're aggressive, you're not trying to overstep your boundaries. Like I can never see you pulling A Mad, or a Storyteller, or a BlasterMaster, or an Ui, ya know? And I have to now wonder if its because of your play style, or if its because you ACTIVELY don't WANT to come off as aggressive, and you are being too cautious, and if its the latter... well that's what's coming off as Scummy to me.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 8, 2007 1:28:50 GMT -5
And lastly, I am one who thinks that Cookies should NOT claim "ASAP". I'm one who thinks that it's best to wait until the hammer is about to actually drop. I think this about ANY Townie, actually. Just on the Role Claiming bit till the last minute. Really? ( ) I don't mean and didn't say at the last minute. I said when the hammer is about to drop. To me, that means when someone is one (or maybe two) votes away from getting it. That doesn't nessacarily mean right at the last minute of Day. Someone could be only one vote away from an automatic Day end at any time. The deadline is just there in case we never do have an automatic one. So to clarify, when the hammer is about ready to drop meaning, whenever that is, not whenever the deadline of Day's end is. Well, there you go, what I said above. Waiting until the VERY last minute (or hour) of Day, yeah, that's bad. BUT, I feel it can depend also. I'm sure we have a Detective of some sort in here. I mean, it seems very plausible. And I'm not talking about what Dio claimed, I'm talking about someone who probably can tell what side someone is on. Now, for the REAL Detective....I would not mind a no-lynch over a lynching someone who said they were that. At least at first. I think having a lynch is better than no-lynch. However I think a no-lynch is better than lynching a possible full Dectective or Doctor role. So, that being said, suppose Cookies is a full Dectective or Doctor. Now I don't know if she is and personally, I don't WANT to know right at this point. But let's just say, for examples and explanation's sake, she is. In that case, yeah, a claim at the very last minute would be nice. Because: A: It gives enough time for heat to be taken off/other things to happen before a true Townie power role is outed and B: The votes can be kept at bay in a way. Tt takes a certain number NEEDED to have a lynch. Therefore even if she's at [number of votes needed] - 1 or 2, she can wait until the last hour or so and claim then. This would cause two things (I hope--and if it doesn't then whoever messes it up is guarenteed a vote from me the next Day if I survive the Night). 1. People to hold off casting the hammering vote(s). 2. Not enough time for scum to possibly help misled Townies to to build up a bandwagon against someone ELSE either to lynch or role claim. Because at the rate we're going, we're going to have everyone claimed something in another Day or two and then, like I've said before, scum will just have a field night picking everyone off left and right, because they will know who is telling the truth and who, of their own faction, is either lying or scum with a "good" name. More and more I feel/think it's the latter. I'm assuming Kylee is a character in the SHOW, right? And I also assume she's a "good" character on the show? What I'm saying is what a few people (seemingly most sure, Ui) have been saying for awhile. That I believe DB may be a roleblocker and I also believe she may even be this Kylee person. I do NOT believe she is pro-town though..so I'm saying I believe that this Kylee character, IF IN THIS GAME, is a scum name. Regardless if she's a good character on the show.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 8, 2007 1:35:12 GMT -5
Also, Idle's thing about last-minute role-claiming really tweaks my radar. I think that was kind of what humped ui at the end of yesterDay. He claimed too close to the deadline and came up with vanilla townie, and without enough time for the town to digest the information he got lynched. I never said anything about last-minute role claiming. There is a difference between last-minute and when the hammer is about to be dropped. The hammer being dropped on a vote means ANY time could be the last minute. So basically whenever someone is one or two votes away from being lynched, whenever that is, be it right now or tomorrow. I did not mean (or say) LAST MINUTE. Most people in here seemed to be saying "I think you should claim now or asap". You were among them. Cookies asked for opinions. Cookies is at, what, six, seven votes? TWELVE needed for a lynch? So you think she should claim being at half or a little more than half majority? And yet you're "tweaked" by me thinking she should wait a bit longer since role claiming all over won't do Town any good? Yeah, okay.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Oct 8, 2007 3:23:24 GMT -5
By not having a vote on ANYONE at the end of the day, it's an effective way to hide in the background. Both Atarus and Mhaye stood out to me as "hiding" players, especially by the way HockeyMonkey Kept her records. Keep that in mind as well, I don't think I've found 1 scum, but I think this could be a group effort. I think you're thinking too into a game set-up where the Day doesn't end when we meet majority, like the Asylum Lane set-up. There, when dotchan didn't cast a vote at the end of Day 1, that was suspicious. But here, when the Day ends when a majority is reached, some people will not have their votes cast for somebody when the hammer falls. Look at toDay, for example. At the beginning of the Day, Story and Spaceman Blam both voted for each other. They didn't gain traction, so they unvoted. Now, are you basically suggesting that if Story and Spaceman Blam don't agree about the eventual lynchee toDay, they should revote for each other? I mean, we KNOW that Story and Blam are suspicious of each other. Do we HAVE to have their votes on each other at the end of the Day? Just so it's a matter of "official record"? Either you find no one suspicious at the end of the day... or you just don't like voting. Both of which I dislike. You would be less suspicious if you had placed a vote out there, even if its a wasted vote, it's still "on the record" then. But to me, it's like you're acting scummy, because you're doing sleight of hand magic tricks. You're showing up and waving your hands, but at the end of the day, there's nothing for it. But I think of you as being real busy and full of good ideas. But why not vote for your #2 most suspicious then? Or your #3? or #4 even? As I pointed out, Hockey did that Day 1. She didn't find the lead suspects suspicious, so she voted for me, who she did think was suspicious. Several people since have jumped on her about her "wanting a no-lynch" and complaining about her one-off vote. It's a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation. I did not mean (or say) LAST MINUTE. Most people in here seemed to be saying "I think you should claim now or asap". You were among them. Cookies asked for opinions. Cookies is at, what, six, seven votes? TWELVE needed for a lynch? So you think she should claim being at half or a little more than half majority? And yet you're "tweaked" by me thinking she should wait a bit longer since role claiming all over won't do Town any good? Yeah, okay. You seem to have missed the entire thing where Cookies claims that her role-claim might give us information that could throw drainbead's claim into suspicion. Under normal circumstances of role-claiming, sure I'd tell Cookies to wait until she's only two votes away from a hammer before claiming. But if her information possibly has direct bearing on drainbead's claim, we need it sooner than later, 'cause if Cookies only gets the extra votes that push her near lynching towards the end of the Day, the information will come and everyone will go into a tizzy and a bad decision might be made. So let me make this clear: if Cookies thinks her information directly pertains to drainbead's reveal, she should give it to us sooner than later. If she's just going to role-claim and that doesn't put any old information we have into question, she should wait.
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Post by Captain Klutz on Oct 8, 2007 8:00:46 GMT -5
Re: Drain Bead claim
So we have a role blocker. Your actions explain some of what has happened, but I'm still a bit puzzled about the blocked hit on panamajack. It's a strange type of block that still lets the target know that he was targeted. Perhaps there is something unreliable about your blocking ability. Is there anything to indicate that your block is less than 100% effective? And feel free to ignore this question if you think this info is better left unsaid.
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Post by Drain Bead on Oct 8, 2007 8:18:11 GMT -5
Re: Drain Bead claim So we have a role blocker. Your actions explain some of what has happened, but I'm still a bit puzzled about the blocked hit on panamajack. It's a strange type of block that still lets the target know that he was targeted. Perhaps there is something unreliable about your blocking ability. Is there anything to indicate that your block is less than 100% effective? And feel free to ignore this question if you think this info is better left unsaid. There is nothing in my role PM that indicates that my blocking ability is anything other than 100% effective.
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Post by CatInASuit on Oct 8, 2007 8:21:51 GMT -5
You know, something just occured to me.
Could panamajack be lying.
We have nothing else confirming it other than his words and it makes him look incredibly pro-town.
Not only that is it the fact he was attacked, he knows he was attacked but has no way to confirm who did it. Unless there is a protect role that allows the person to know they have been attacked and saved without giving anything away, it doesn't make any sense. Especially as he says he is a vanilla townie.
I am getting serious misgivings over this claim, because it just doesn't fit with other facts that have been revealed, not including if drainbead is being truthful, although I think it makes his claim more uncertain.
I am willing to be proved wrong, but for the moment
FOS panamajack
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 8, 2007 8:29:18 GMT -5
OK, two thoughts: drainbeadThank you for the roleclaim. That makes a lot of sense considering actions taken. Would anyone like to counter claim? And if nothing comes forward, would you like to claim as well Cookies? Yeah, let's get everyone to roleclaim, why don't we? Wash or not, you're looking mighty suspicious to me. As for Cookies, well, I think the sooner you role-claim the better, as if you DO have information that helps the town, the more time the town has to digest and work through both yours and drainbead's information, the better. Snipped. As I said above, I disagree. Roleclaiming just makes it easier for scum to know who is who. I've been getting myself into trouble all game going against conventional wisdom - why stop now? I disagree with your point above, and think Cookies should claim more or less as soon as possible. Here's why: The premise that "one should never role claim unless forced to do so" is so (correctly) accepted that the reason behind it never gets articulated, so let's articulate it. Role claims help the scum because it gives them an idea of who to target for Night kills (and, if applicable, other Night actions like blocks or investigations). A power role doesn't want to claim because (s)he might then be targeted; a vanilla doesn't want to claim because then (s)he narrows the target pool for the scum. Right? Except, in our current case, by her comments and allusions so far, Cookies has already claimed a pro-Crew power role, and one with information unavailable to the rest of the Crew. She hasn't given us a name or a power yet, but she clearly intends to state that she has one. I submit that this is the worst possible state to be in. If she's telling the truth, then the scum already know it. They know that she almost surely has a power role, and at least some kind of useful information, just from the hints she's dropped so far. The benefit of staying unclaimed - hiding her identity as a power role from the scum - has already been lost. They can target her if they see fit. But, by the same token, because her claim is still vague, the Crew can't evaluate it. We can't decide if we believe it. If there is a pro-Crew protective role, (s)he has no evidence with which to decide whether Cookies should be protected. AND we don't have the benefit of whatever information she has. In short, Cookies, the cat is out of the suit (see what I did there? Oh, forget it). If you're not lying, the scum know it already and will act accordingly. Furthermore, all the folks saying it's best to wait until the hammer is about to drop - do you all realize that if that happens, we might not have a lynch at all toDay? Deadline is in about four real life days - if Cookies claims some indispensible role on Thursday afternoon, we will have no time at all to look at alternative candidates; we'll have wasted our whole day jabbering about Cookies. Which, I suspect, is exactly what at least some among us want us to do. So you think she's a pro-scum roleblocker? I think it's possible she's a pro-Crew roleblocker. I think it's possible she's a pro-scum non-roleblocker. But I'd be astonished if she is a pro-scum roleblocker. In order to believe that she's a pro-scum roleblocker, we'd have to believe that she: (1) Blocked Diomedes Night One. (2) Learned the following Day that he is a pro-town investigative role (which she would, as scum, know to be a true claim) and then (3) Chose to block someone else the following two Nights, instead of focusing her efforts on the investigative role that she had, against all odds, discovered. That doesn't make any sense from any standpoint. If she's a roleblocker, she's pro-town.
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Hockey Monkey!
Borogrove
This is supposed to be a happy occasion. Let's not bicker over who killed who.
Posts: 371
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Post by Hockey Monkey! on Oct 8, 2007 8:44:21 GMT -5
Roosh, I'm a little confused over what you think I am doing with my voting record. I am not rallying anyone. I'm not building a case. The one list I made with the "bandwagoneers" was to point out to Idle that I wasn't the only one who was voting alot, and voting for people who were leading at some point in the day. I was defending myself. I NEVER said that any of those people were or were not scum. I dislike the tone set that the way I keep my records is not above bar. I may occasionally make a mistake, but I would never deliberately manage the data.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 8, 2007 9:09:28 GMT -5
Ok, here goes. I've seen enough to know that this should probably come out toDay, even though I have been very tempted to try and hold off until Tomorrow. You'll see why in a moment. This is long, but full of chewy goodness. Bear with me. I am Fanty, my alignment is Crew. I win when all Alliance are dead. I’m looking for my twin brother, Mingo, so that I can kill him. Mingo started acting really strangely lately, and my twin intuition has told me that he’s been brainwashed by the Alliance. I know nothing else about Mingo. (In my own little flight-of-fanfic-fancy-color-that-was-very-much-not-included-in-my-role-PM…it was a tryst with the fan dancer…who had been bribed by the Alliance to slip my brother a drug…that led to his downfall. I TOLD him she was trouble). I can look for Mingo by Night, and I get one of three responses based on the circumstances surrounding my target: 1) My target was Mingo (and Mingo dies) 2) My target was not Mingo3) Something interfered with my snooping/killing. No result. The implications of the 3rd response are kinda sucky, but I’ve clarified with the Mods, and it is what it is. If successfully blocked (defensively or offensively) I cannot determine anything about how/why I was blocked, nor can I directly determine any new information about my target (though some things can at least be inferred, should this result come up). My snooping produced a result on Night 3, so this casts an interesting light on drain’s claim. Since Mingo has not turned up dead, I obviously haven’t found him yet. My short list of people who are not Mingo can be discussed if desired by the Town. I can keep these names to myself, or share them if the Town wishes. Aside from those names, I’ve spilled all of the rest of my beans to hopefully provide good information to the town, and keep myself alive for continued assistance to the Town. Everything I have said in my “the scum investigator™” defense is true. That is how it went down. That is what I was thinking when I wrote what I posted. Now that my claim is on the table, I can offer another (non-metagame) possible subconscious blindspot that could have prevented me from seeing what I said as slip-fodder, even as I remain firm on my stance that it was not a slip. It was the way I think and write. But I digress… If Diomedes is to be believed, then he and I plus Hal’s Night 1 Easter Bunny make 3 investigative-type roles for the Town. The combination of the balance implications and the inherent handicaps on both sides due to the closed set up, has had the possibility of a scum investigative role quite high on my list of things to keep in mind. But my intent with that whole series of responses to Cat on Day 2 was to use a hypothetical, over-simplified, “all other things being equal” scenario to make a point about how I was interpreting Spiff’s math. I don’t know if there is a scum investigator, but I’m worried there could be one. I don’t know if there is a scum Godfather, but I’m worried there could be one. However, I wasn’t primarily thinking about my role or my worries when I made that post. I was thinking about how best to hypothetically make my point to Cat. I’m entirely too scatter-brained to compartmentalize my thought processes at all times. Some of you may be irked at me for divulging so much in my name+role claim, but I believe it is the best move for me. Ironically, I have been hesitant to confirm what I know regarding names and alignments for two primary reasons. 1) For the very reason why I’ve been carrying so many votes for the past few Days: public perception of at least partially perfect knowledge. 2) Because I don’t know how much Mingo knows about me from his PM, whether he’s been looking for me in a similar but scummy fashion, whether there might be tells that would’ve clued him in to who I am based on what I said or how I said it. But there will be no more walking on eggshells based on what may or may not have been in Mingo’s scummy PM. The window of opportunity to be conservative is closing, and (hopefully) the Alliance scum have less options and less control in their crowd manipulations with me out in the open. The knowledge that there is a Firefly ‘verse name basically synonymous in the canon with my own, yet on the scummy end of the spectrum in the game, is what was at play in my initial post regarding dnooman, and the follow-up the next day FOSing Roosh, wtf, Cat, and Diomedes. Based on the consensus reaction to pro-crew names (keeping them alive) I think it is quite likely that there is at least one scummy in that group. Part of my keeping quiet was hoping that a few of the scum ticks might try and burrow in the apparent safety of that circumstance. Since the color of the twins is (like Badger) a bit of a grey area compared to hardcore crew, I didn’t want to open up all of the information in my claim until some of you had come back around to the idea that there could be scummy peanut butter in the crew’s chocolate. If I tried to give my goodies away piece by piece, the scum could’ve taken me out at Night, or helped the town take me out in the Day, and my death could have given the (wrong) impression that Mingo was also town. I was also hoping that someone would perhaps watch me or observe one of my Night actions, so that I wouldn't have to join the growing pile of claimants who can do things but not necessarily prove that they can do them or have done them. If anyone out there can provide anything in that regard, please consider doing so. I don't want to waste one of Dio's readings, but we could possibly co-confirm eachother, though that would imply that he was trusted, which is a stretch right now, with or without whatever is going on with drain and her alleged blocking of me last Night. The only confirmation that I can offer at this point, are my "Not Mingo" names, which I will understand if people are dubious about, but it is all I've got. Being so close to the noose also may have kept me safer from a Night kill than the play style of someone like zeriel, apparently, so I didn't necessarily mind how things have been going, so long as I didn't get lynched. Though taking down a scum by now would've been nice. ****HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO WARNING**** Now, if I’m not lynched toDay, perhaps the scum will be distracted with some wifom of their own. Do they vote to try and off me at night or not? Do they try and block me if they can (assuming that drain's block on me was in turn blocked by scum)? Do they try to have Mingo go after me at night and risk being watched or tracked or otherwise observed or not? Do they use what protection abilities they might have (or not have) on Mingo or not? Do they risk outing themselves by trying to work the (readily apparent) Daytime suspicion towards me by Day, or not? Somewhere in all of the possible consequences of this claim, I hope to provide a diversion so that the other Town roles can be used to their highest potential benefit. (i.e. prevent any repeats of drain’s alleged attempted block on me, assuming for a moment that she’s town). And I hope to live through a few more Nights so that I can increase my chances of going all Cain and Able on Mingo’s ass. ****END HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO****
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Post by storyteller0910 on Oct 8, 2007 9:31:32 GMT -5
It would appear that either drainbead is lying, or Cookies is. I can't see how their claims are compatible. Unless someone else blocked drainbead, but players whose abilities have been blocked have heretofore had indication of this when it happens, and drainbead did not mention being blocked when she blocked Cookies.
It seems fairly likely that one of them is scum. I don't know which. Thoughts?
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Post by Boozahol Squid, P.I. on Oct 8, 2007 10:25:36 GMT -5
Well, storyteller wins the Diomedes vote prize, by a wide margin. Coming in second was Roosh's case put forward to lynch mhaye's non-voting ass.
story's case for drain not blocking me on subsequent nights to night one/zero/0.5 only would fail if both drain and I were scum together. Because I'm not scum, I'm going to put drain on my permanent non-scum list... or putting him on the infinitely-crafty-scum-who-ought-to-win just by her cojones of not blocking me as the obvious scum-block role. I mean, hell, if I'd come back with fuzzy screens again and again, the scum could very easily do away with me without wasting their time night-killing me.
story's analysis convinces me that either drain is (and therefore I am) scum, or Cookies is scum. So I'll roll with it.
vote:Darth Cookies
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Post by Drain Bead on Oct 8, 2007 10:32:15 GMT -5
About the only way that Cookies' claim is true is if there's another blocking role out there and last night they blocked me. If that's the case, and Cookies ends up on the block, I suppose you MAY want to claim. Otherwise, I'm pretty sure we've found our first scum.
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Post by Yattara on Oct 8, 2007 10:34:55 GMT -5
Due to some personal problems and RL getting busy I'll have to drop the game.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 8, 2007 10:39:49 GMT -5
Due to some personal problems and RL getting busy I'll have to drop the game. OK. Um...Zeriel...you still following this mess? Wanna sub back in?
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 8, 2007 10:50:56 GMT -5
Well this is going marvelously. I've never had a blocking role. Do blockers always get confirmations as to the success/failure of their blocks?
My "Not Mingos":
Night 1 - Atarus Night 2 - Idle Thoughts Night 3 - BLaM aka Spaceman Spiff
Since I'm looking for one needle in a haystack of people I don't trust, I've been choosing my targets randomly out of the living players (omitting myself of course).
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 8, 2007 11:01:16 GMT -5
Let's put up a quick Vote Count for the kids.
7- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies (Captain Klutz, drainbead, FCoD, CiaS, Pygmy, Hal Briston, Diomedes)
4- drainbead (Captain Spaceman Blam, Idle Thoughts, Cookies, atarus)
1- Hockey Monkey (Roosh) 1- mhaye (hockeymonkey)
13 of 23 votes cast with 23 alive it takes 12 to lynch
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Death By Irony
FGM
The Former Mandate of Heaven/Current Gastard Night Mod
I'm my own mind-altering substance!
Posts: 109
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Post by Death By Irony on Oct 8, 2007 11:39:47 GMT -5
*mutters more obscenities about evil mods*
On one hand, Cookies' claimed role does sound like something that could exist in a setup this crazy.
On the other hand, drain bead's claimed role is a straightforward standard Roleblocker.
On the other other hand, drain bead's been acting more suspiciously.
On the other other other hand, Cookies has played fairly below the radar except for that one Shiney Post (tm).
...man, at the end of toDay, I'm gonna have more hands than a Hindu god.
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Post by Pollux Oil on Oct 8, 2007 11:43:08 GMT -5
Ah...huh. I can confirm that yes, in fact, I am not Mingo. Okay, I'm gonna analyze Cookies' claim first by itself, then in accordance with drainbead's claim. Cookies' claim alone:Under the assumption that regardless, Cookies is Fanty, then either Fanty is pro-town as she says, or Fanty is scum. Bringing her brother into the mix, that means either Mingo is scum, or Mingo is town. If her claim is to be believed, then Mingo is scum and she can find him and kill him at night. (For the record: I don't see that there's any scenario where both Fanty and Mingo are town, considering Cookies' explanation, unless we're actually playing a BastardMod game and both Fanty and Mingo are crew but they each think each other is Alliance.) If Mingo is actually town, and Fanty is the scum, it'd be a good idea for Mingo to counterclaim Cookies' claim. However, if Mingo stays in the shadows, it'd be pretty certain that Cookies' claim is legit (and that possibly drainbead is scum, as having Mingo expose himself could lead to two scum being outed and lynched). Drainbead vs. CookiesObviously, these two claims are not compatible (unless there's some freaky shit going on) so somebody's lying. And so again, I can't see a possible scenario where both drainbead and Cookies are town unless there's something crazy going on. drainbead - town vs. Cookies - scum = If drainbead is town, then she did actually block Cookies and Cookies is lying about the fact that she got a reading last night. In fact, she could be lying about her entire power, but I doubt it. Cookies is smart 'n all, but this is a kinda strange power to come up with out of your ass. If Cookies turns up scum, it doesn't really implicate anybody else. drainbead - scum vs. Cookies - town = This means that drainbead is lying about something. She could be normal scum, or she could be roleblocker scum. And as I said before, I felt like drainbead's Occam Razor filling-in of all the mysteries was a little too convenient. If drainbead is lying, it puts heavy suspicion on Diomedes since drainbead went out of her way to confirm him (unless, of course, that was a scum tactic to begin with if she ended up dead, to get us to be more concerned with Diomedes DAMMIT I hate wine). drainbead - scum vs. Cookies - scum = That's right folks, this isn't a mutually exclusive "one's town, the other's scum" situation. What if BOTH are scum? This could be a cleverly designed trap. It's pretty obvious (although not completely) that one of drainbead and Cookies should be lynched toDay, now with this conflicting information. If they're both scum, when the person that is lynched turns up scum, the other gets a huge boost of townie cred. That's why they gave us conflicting information, they ensure one of them gets lynched, but the other gets a townie reprieve after a scum turns up dead. One thing we could also consider: Both of these role claims are useful to the town, if legit. However, drainbead has just a good a chance of blocking a pro-town action accidentally as she does blocking the scum action. Cookies' claim, if legit, either results in a Not Mingo find, or a scum death, but won't affect any other pro-town roles. Hmmmmm...right now I'm leaning towards drainbead still being slightly more suspicious. But it can easily go either way at this point.
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Post by Zeriel on Oct 8, 2007 11:54:16 GMT -5
I'm baaaaaaaack.
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Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Oct 8, 2007 12:00:37 GMT -5
You are truly a glutton for punishment. *hides random instrument of torture behind her back* Welcome.
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Post by NAF1138 on Oct 8, 2007 12:24:46 GMT -5
OK Yattara is out and Zeriel is back in. He just got the role PM, but it seems like he has been reading along with the Day in real time so we are not going to wait until the end of the Day to sub him in.
Welcome back Zeriel.
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Post by Hal Briston on Oct 8, 2007 12:34:01 GMT -5
Ok, back from the camping trip. The spreadsheet is up-to-date, and I'm pretty well caught up on the thread. Two things jumping out at me while reading through -- 1) Based on drain's claims, is there a reason that Greedy Smurf is being looked at more closely?* 2) There's been a fair amount of talk such as this: If Diomedes is to be believed, then he and I plus Hal’s Night 1 Easter Bunny make 3 investigative-type roles for the Town. The combination of the balance implications and the inherent handicaps on both sides due to the closed set up, has had the possibility of a scum investigative role quite high on my list of things to keep in mind. Please keep in mind -- to the best of my knowledge, the person who visited me is not an investigative role. They came in and gave me information, but I have no reason to believe they they gained any information. *NETA: Never mind. I just took another look at my spreadsheet and found the reason we're not suspicious of greedy. I also found that I'm a complete doofus.
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Post by Hal Briston on Oct 8, 2007 12:36:35 GMT -5
1) Based on drain's claims, is there a reason that Greedy Smurf is being looked at more closely?* Even though the point is moot, Pedantic Jerkwad Gangsta Thug Baby is insisting I fix this: "... isn't being looked at more closely".
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Oct 8, 2007 12:41:01 GMT -5
You seem to have missed the entire thing where Cookies claims that her role-claim might give us information that could throw drainbead's claim into suspicion.I didn't miss it at all. Seems to me, then, she's got to have a pretty serious or important role. One scum would just LOVE to hear or know asap. I don't need to hear whatever she has to say right now to be suspicious of DB. I'm already suspicious of DB. So it's a moot point. Seems to me if she knows something, then she must have (or be ready to claim) a role that is a bit more serious than "roleblocker". And being as how I lean more towards her being Town and DB not, I have the opinion it's not in Towns best interest to have the role come out so early, considerng she only has about 6 or 7 votes. Speak for yourself. I'm already voting for DB, WITHOUT the info. I disagree with you. But that's no surprise considering I think DB is the most suspicious player, followed by Hockey and then YOU.
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