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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Nov 28, 2011 18:19:19 GMT -5
are you assuming that the Scum do not know how people are linked? I've not seen any evidence to say that they are not ... I think that Inner Sticklers "worst case scenario" is really bad for the BLUE TEAM because that would also mean that during the Day .... If a BLUE TEAM member is looking likely to be lynched , and they are attached to another BLUE TEAM member... RED TEAM would know this and be more than happy to push the lynch that way... I just feel that IF they have that knowledge... It makes them very powerful. I guess we'll have to wait another few Days to see what transpires , and I do realise that by the sheer nature of the game... Even then we might not have an answer. Well... yesterday there was a red and blue lynch... So we could potentially learn a lot by analyzing that lynch. I haven't read Day 1 yet... going to do so today/tomorrow... but a quick glance at the end of Day vote count brings a few things to mind. 1. Mahaloth didn't vote... so that doesn't help us much. 2. Lightfoot, Archangel, and Colby all voted for Deon, who was bound to Mahaloth. If the red team knows who they are bound to, I doubt that they would vote for the person a lynch-leading red team member is bound to. (By this I mean that near the end of the Day Mahaloth had 4 votes, Silverjan had 3, and Deon also had 3. If the red team wanted to save Mahaloth but knew that he was bound to Deon, then they wouldn't have voted for Mahaloth or Deon.) Furthermore, if they know who they are bound to, then they would have had to avoid 2 different lynch leaders... not just Mahaloth, but Deon as well.... And by process of elimination, they would have known that silverjan was bound to another member of the Blue team. So why didn't they swing the vote, gradually or drastically, onto Silverjan? That would give them a double mislynch instead of losing Mahaloth. So, the Red team voting for Mahaloth or Deon makes no sense if they know who they are bound to. You could call it bussing I suppose, but to what purpose? The reward for not bussing your teammate would be higher in this game. The level of TC you would get remains about the same for doing so... but not doing so gives you twice the amount of dead townies.... In my opinion, The red team does not know who they are bound to. That's why Mahaloth and Deon beat/tied Silverjan in the votes Yesterday. And that is why Mahaloth didn't vote... he didn't know who he could vote for without risking killing himself or a fellow scum. The scum likely voted for Mahaloth late in his vote count to bus him because they didn't know if getting Silverjan lynched in his place would result in one of them dying because they are bound to her. I can't make sense of it any other way. I'll be back again after reading Day 1... it might not be until tomorrow.
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Post by special on Nov 28, 2011 18:26:09 GMT -5
Interesting assessment, Paul. I'm inclined to agree with the premise, though we cannot be sure that Scum voted that way late in the Day, it certainly would have been possible.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Nov 28, 2011 18:36:12 GMT -5
He had nothing to say about my other reason for voting him, which was the fact that he was telling Town power roles to take a backseat in discussions about game setup just in case they slip, which gives Town no info at all, but could clue Scum in about who the Town power roles are. I think he had nothing to say because he knew it was indefensible. No, but I know there's nothing I can say that will placate you. If there are both scum and town roles related to the collars, any speculation from a non-scum player that hits particularly close to home from a scum's point of view will point them out more clearly to scum than a general silence on the topic from everybody. This seems manifestly obvious to me but that's clearly not the case for everyone. I don't tell people what to do, I can only give my opinion as to the best course of action based on the available data. Anyone else is free to recommend another course of action or to ignore my suggestions based on their own data and I will judge the merits of their suggestions much as I expect others to judge mine.
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Post by scáthach on Nov 28, 2011 19:00:51 GMT -5
I'm going to vote Colby For the reasons laid out yesterday in this post www.idlemafia.com/index.cgi?action=gotopost&board=wedlockgame&thread=1770&post=84124Nothing he's said today really swings me either way Well, it seems that the collars DO work like we thought.... I was afraid of that.... Talking about the Night Kill, I think that Guiri was targeted as the night kill, and Silverjan was their partner. I say this because now the top 3 vote getters from Day 1 are now all dead, which is something that scum wouldn't want to do. Really we have no clue based on the color. I guess it would be possible that we do have a vigilante, since Silverjan (the 2nd highest voter) is dead... I think either one could be true in this case. Goes back and forth on the Vig possibility. Could be scum making noise, could be town just not knowing what's going on. Null tell. I am going to focus on Mr. Special Ed for a bit... BAH!!! (Since he does that alot lately and I have to include it) I have an issue with Special Ed's vote on Day 1. He pointed out that Silver Jan was leaking scum (post #161) but didn't vote for Jan until Post #193. At that time, a few other people had started to vote for Silver Jan... That, and the fact that I feel like he is posting without contributing much, leads me to Vote Mr. Special Ed The main reasoning why I did vote for Ed was because he didn't place a vote on Jan until after a bandwagon had started on her. It just sticks out to me when I reread Day 1. While Ed's playstyle is... unique... I'm not basing the vote on that. Votes Ed for smudging Jan but not voting until a bandwagon starts. Interesting point that I don't think has been made yet. Will reread Special ed's posts when I get a chance tomorrow. But the real clincher for me is this: So, after reading a bit, seems the consensus is either Mahaloth, Silver Jan, and Deon. Mahaloth- hasn't posted much. I think enough has been said about this... Now that we know Mahaloth is scum, I find it very suspicious that he completely avoided discussing him in a post that sets out to discuss the three wagons. I thought it was odd yesterday, but especially so now.
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Colby11
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Post by Colby11 on Nov 28, 2011 19:40:59 GMT -5
But the real clincher for me is this: So, after reading a bit, seems the consensus is either Mahaloth, Silver Jan, and Deon. Mahaloth- hasn't posted much. I think enough has been said about this... Now that we know Mahaloth is scum, I find it very suspicious that he completely avoided discussing him in a post that sets out to discuss the three wagons. I thought it was odd yesterday, but especially so now. It seemed like Mahaloth's case had already been spelled out in previous posts, and I had nothing new to add to them. As someone pointed out later in the day, Mahaloth was seen lurking around, but not defending theirself from a lynch. I even saw Mahaloth online myself (I think this was around the second or third real day of Day 1), but I just dismissed it.
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Post by LightFoot on Nov 28, 2011 20:26:04 GMT -5
Just a quick note.
I'm reading and composing.
Tonight is pool league so I will return with more substance ( well hope to) in about 24 hours.
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Post by special on Nov 28, 2011 20:35:00 GMT -5
Just a quick note. I'm reading and composing. Tonight is pool league so I will return with more substance ( well hope to) in about 24 hours. So, you just wanted to say that you didn't have anything to say?
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Post by Caerie on Nov 29, 2011 7:43:18 GMT -5
In my opinion, The red team does not know who they are bound to. That's why Mahaloth and Deon beat/tied Silverjan in the votes Yesterday. And that is why Mahaloth didn't vote... he didn't know who he could vote for without risking killing himself or a fellow scum. The scum likely voted for Mahaloth late in his vote count to bus him because they didn't know if getting Silverjan lynched in his place would result in one of them dying because they are bound to her. I can't make sense of it any other way. This makes sense. Of course, there's a nice bit of satisfaction in thinking the scum might be almost as clueless as the town this time around. Hopefully, they really don't know who they're tied to. ...but if they do, that heightens the likelihood of manipulation in lynches and makes our choices there that much more important. A worst case scenario could make this one hell of a tough game.
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Post by storyteller0910 on Nov 29, 2011 9:17:22 GMT -5
OK, catching up on Day 2 so far.
sinjin makes a case for Paranoia at #11, based mostly on what she regards as Paranoia’s lack of substance. Can’t really object here, because this line of thinking netted us mahaloth yesterDay.
There’s a fair bit of discussion regarding whether the two deaths were the result of linked collars detonating, or whether it was a Vigilante/Third Party, and honestly, while it’s valid discussion, it doesn’t really matter that much right now. We’re not going to know until somebody flips/claims/is outed as a Vig/SK, and it doesn’t much affect how we work going forward. We have to lynch our best candidate for Scum each Day, and let happen what may at Night.
At #16, Paranoia names Caerie and Sachertorte (per subsequent correction) as his two main suspects. He gives a lengthy explanation for the former, but his explanation for the latter is difficult to find and seems a bit thrown in.
Lightfoot addresses my criticism of her vote for deon at #23. Nothing she says here gets to the heart of my actual problem with her post, which was that her analysis read like someone who wanted to make a pile on vote but needed to reach for reasons to do so. This is followed by some discussion of Lightfoot’s theory that the Scum do not know to whom their own collars are connected. Lightfoot maintains repeatedly here that recent events have led her to this conclusion, but – as mitchy and others point out – the logic here doesn’t really make sense. Why would two blue deaths overNight lead Lightfoot to this conclusion?
Note that paulwhoisaghost offers an argument with a similar conclusion (at #60). I don’t necessarily agree with the argument per se – it assumes that the primary goal of Scum will be to keep one of their own alive at all costs, which I don’t think is a good assumption – but it’s at least an argument that follows.
Mr. Special Ed draws a few votes. I can’t say I don’t sympathize – Ed’s posting style is driving me CRAZY, a little – but I don’t know if it’s helpful. I’m not sure I believe that Ed’s behavior in this game makes sense as either Town or Scum. colby’s argument – that Ed’s Day 1 vote on Silver Jan was timed such that it appeared to be a bandwagon vote – is reasonable, though.
----------
Right now, my two primary suspects are colby11 and Lightfoot.
colby11 I am primarily suspicious of due to the timing and nature of his vote yesterDay for deon, now known to be Town, while namechecking Mahaloth, now known to be Scum. The reasoning Colby gives for choosing to vote for deon is vague and insubstantial, and it’s timed in such a way as to (at that moment) increase the likelihood of Town dying and Scum living (for similar reasons, the flip suggests pro-Town motivation for Drain bead and gnarlycharly; see my own post #231 from Day 1 for more on this).
However.
If the Scum know to whom their collars are connected, then colby’s actions no longer look pro-Scum (and, not incidentally, drainbead and gnarlycharly applying the coup de grace to Mahaloth loses some of its pro-Town punch – in fact, it becomes something that Scum might indeed do in such a situation). Given that this situation looks so dramatically different depending on what the Scum know about their collar connection, I’d rather hold off on voting on the basis of these events for the moment.
---
Which leads me to this:
vote Lightfoot
I’ve already covered my objections to her vote for Silver Jan in yesterDay’s posts. Moreover, her conclusions toDay about the Scum knowing/not knowing to whom they are connected don’t follow from the evidence she is claiming underlies those conclusions. She sounds to me like someone who knows what the Scum know. Maybe she’s telling the truth and maybe she’s lying about it, but in either case she know the truth. That’s why it’s so hard for her to articulate her reasons; she had a conclusion in mind that she wanted to present from the beginning and had to find a reason to present it.
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 11:38:45 GMT -5
Well, it seems that the collars DO work like we thought.... I was afraid of that.... Why so afraid? Here is my thinking: I certainly wasn't afraid of the collars killing off an associated pairing. In addition to expecting it, I want scum to have the possibility of killing one of their own*. In fact, in my mind the main players who would "be afraid" of a linked kill from the scum night kill are scum themselves. To all town players: Was anyone else afraid that the night kill would kill a collar pair? I don't want to fall into the trap that someone not thinking like me is automatically town, but I have an issue with colby's fear of the nightkill taking out a pair. Please let me know if you are Town and also shared colby's fear. *which leaves the question as to whether or not scum know their own pairings or not. I think not, but that is purely from a game balance point of view.
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 12:01:42 GMT -5
Game Setup thoughts:
IF scum know pairings - THEN there is no Vig/SK and the scum kill killed both Guiri and Silver Jan. reasoning: Both knowing the pairings AND having a severable action (night kill) would make scum super powerful. They would obviously choose to kill Blues connected to Red in order to both remove the Blue and free the Red from collateral damage should that Blue get lynched. This approach is not a good game setup.
conversely, IF there is a Vig/SK - THEN scum do NOT know pairings
finally, IF there is NO Vig/SK - THEN we can not make conclusions about what the scum know about pairings.
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 12:13:51 GMT -5
Ed's playing nearly exactly the same way he played in the last game. In that game he was town. I'm not saying Ed's playstyle = Ed's towniness, but his short posts and BAH!ing is at best a null tell. Either he didn't change it up from last game because he's town again, or he didn't change it up from last game because he's scum and didn't want to look like he was changing his playstyle. My point is that regardless of Ed alignment in previous games or the current game, the playstyle he has adopted is designed to be advantageous to him when he is scum. Whether he is in position to take advantage of that situation now or not is a matter of what he was assigned, but he is clearly playing in a way to make it harder to assess his alignment. That in and of itself is a justifiable reason to lynch him.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Nov 29, 2011 13:20:03 GMT -5
Having just made it back through yesterDay and toDay (I'd thought I was going to have more internet time. I don't know why. I never do) I would like to say that I'm disinclined to believe Scum knew who they were tied to at the beginning of the game, so I am in agreement largely with Paul. I'm not ruling out the possibility they have some method to find OUT who they're tied to, mind.
Although I wonder if it's a question of being "tied to" at all.
Also, although I suppose sacher has a point about Ed, I'm more perturbed by Lightfoot's play as pointed out by story; that, plus her non-post post up there about being here but not being here is enough for me to:
vote: Lightfoot
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Post by moodymitchy on Nov 29, 2011 13:29:58 GMT -5
@Sister Coyote
I'm a bit confused with your comment about wondering if it's a question of being "tied to" at all....
The lynch yesterDay showed that SCUM are tied (linked) to another player...
Yes we're still pondering about whether the NK's were the action of SCUM or a 3rd party action plus a SCUM NK...
But we've already seen hard evidence that SCUM are linked to other players... (well at least one was)
So that line confuses me a little
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Post by LightFoot on Nov 29, 2011 13:36:50 GMT -5
Just a quick note. I'm reading and composing. Tonight is pool league so I will return with more substance ( well hope to) in about 24 hours. So, you just wanted to say that you didn't have anything to say? Yep, taking a page from the Bah! Book. Since other players have noted they pay attention when someone is on-line but not posting I was trying to eliminate the Lurker Label. I have things to post but did not have time to post them last night. I was catching up. Nit pic away yee of many words I'll get to the rest of you as I have time today- since I've become so popular
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Post by LightFoot on Nov 29, 2011 13:55:23 GMT -5
Underlining mine Where did I say this? Where did I present a theory that Scum did/didn’t know who they were paired with? no where my statement ( I believe you are referring to here idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=wedlockgame&action=post&thread=1777"e=84201&page=1 ) was related to the Day lynch – that could not be discussed until this Day more than the results of the Night . Upon review I wager you are referring to this idlemafia.com/index.cgi?board=wedlockgame&action=post&thread=1777"e=84208&page=1 as well. No major theory from me just a simple statement in response to a question . If Scum knew who they were linked to It makes D1 voting all the more confusing to me. ( and reading recent posts there are some who agree with my train of thought are they all Scum?) And why would that make me any Scummier than the players that are leaning the other direction?? Back to the deon case. I used everything deon had posted, came to a conclusion and voted. I didn’t kill anyone so why is that such a driving force for you? note above you have me voting two different people
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Post by special on Nov 29, 2011 14:06:50 GMT -5
Ed's playing nearly exactly the same way he played in the last game. In that game he was town. I'm not saying Ed's playstyle = Ed's towniness, but his short posts and BAH!ing is at best a null tell. Either he didn't change it up from last game because he's town again, or he didn't change it up from last game because he's scum and didn't want to look like he was changing his playstyle. My point is that regardless of Ed alignment in previous games or the current game, the playstyle he has adopted is designed to be advantageous to him when he is scum. Whether he is in position to take advantage of that situation now or not is a matter of what he was assigned, but he is clearly playing in a way to make it harder to assess his alignment. That in and of itself is a justifiable reason to lynch him. This is incorrect. You're making an assumption as to my motivation. And, while I must admit that might seem to be a plausible motivation, it is not accurate. In the past, I've played the game loudly and aggressively. I've spent time doing research and making accusation. Even when I've been confident in my research and confident in my conclusions, I've never succeeded in convinving many people to agree with me. So, now I'm just going to play by reading the game. Maybe occassionally going back when I need to try to remember things, but usually just following along and making my best guesses. I will say Bah when I don't like something. I'll say when I agree with something. I'll vote when I feel like it. I won't worry too much about convincing anyone. My hope is that this will make the game more enjoyable for me. By concerning myself less with convincing people to agree with me, I should get less stressed. now, that's not to say I won't make accusations or even explain myself, but the burden of making sure the other players make the right choices is theirs now, and not mine. (in the past, in my mind, it has been my role to convince others to agree with me) If all of this has the added benefit of making it easier for me to win as Scum, sobeit.
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Post by special on Nov 29, 2011 14:11:46 GMT -5
So, you just wanted to say that you didn't have anything to say? Yep, taking a page from the Bah! Book. Since other players have noted they pay attention when someone is on-line but not posting I was trying to eliminate the Lurker Label. I have things to post but did not have time to post them last night. I was catching up. Nit pic away yee of many words I'll get to the rest of you as I have time today- since I've become so popular Did this post have a point? Oh, yes, that you wanted to not appear to be lurking. Do I look like a lurker? I haven't logged in since June of 2009. I'm likely to vote for you later. I just wanted that out there so you can OMGUS, but I'll do so when I feel good and ready.
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Post by LightFoot on Nov 29, 2011 14:52:40 GMT -5
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Well, it seems that the collars DO work like we thought.... I was afraid of that.... Why so afraid? Here is my thinking: I certainly wasn't afraid of the collars killing off an associated pairing. In addition to expecting it, I want scum to have the possibility of killing one of their own*. In fact, in my mind the main players who would "be afraid" of a linked kill from the scum night kill are scum themselves. To all town players: Was anyone else afraid that the night kill would kill a collar pair? I don't want to fall into the trap that someone not thinking like me is automatically town, but I have an issue with colby's fear of the nightkill taking out a pair. Please let me know if you are Town and also shared colby's fear. *which leaves the question as to whether or not scum know their own pairings or not. I think not, but that is purely from a game balance point of view. Underlining mine in order for this to make sense to me I must assume you meant “ automatically Scum” ? I am Town ( of course everyone will type that) And I, too , look forward to seeing Scum killing one of their own if NK’s take out the collared pair. If indeed that is how these things work. My only “fear” if there was any is that Scum would land on a blue/blue pair this soon ( or too often)
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 14:56:45 GMT -5
Day One Lynch notes
At post #145 it was about 29 hours to Lynch and there were a total of 5 votes. All one offs. NONE on what would be a viable lynchwagon. (Sister Coyote, Inner Stickler, Sinjin, Special Ed, Colby)
GUIRI votes for Mahaloth on post #150 (23 hours to lynch)
#163 Caerie votes for Silver Jan (ties vote to Mahaloth) #172 JustBeingGinger votes for Deon (ties vote with Mahaloth and Silver Jan) #180 sachertorte votes for Silver Jan (presses Silver Jan to Lead with 2 votes) #181 Lightfoot votes for Deon (ties vote with Silver Jan) #189 ArchAngel votes for Deon (presses Deon to Lean with 3 votes) #193 Special Ed votes for Silver Jan (ties vote with Deon at 3 votes) (Mahaloth still only at 1)
At about 13 hours to Lynch #197 Pollux Oil votes for Mahaloth
Vote count (wagons only) is Mahaloth 2, Deon 3, Silver Jan 3
# 212 JustBeingGinger UNVOTES Deon (leaving Silver Jan the lead with 3) # 216 MoodyMitchy votes Mahaloth (creates tie with Silver Jan with 3) [9.5 hours to lynch] # 218 Inner Stickler votes Mahaloth (pushes Mahaloth into the lead with 4) #221 colby votes Deon (ties with Silver Jan at 3, but Mahaloth still in lead with 4)
6 hours to lynch #225 gnarlycharlie votes Mahaloth (5) but has no meaning 4 hours to lynch #226 Drain Bead votes Mahaloth (6) but has no meaning #231 storyteller votes Mahaloth (7) but has no meaning #233 Scath votes Mahaloth (8) but has no meaning #237 sinjin votes paranoia (I include this because sinjin's vote would have no effect on the lynch no matter who she voted for. Yet she does not jump on the sure to be lynched Mahaloth).
I'm drawn to the following conclusions:
JustBeingGinger (slight lean Town): She placed the first vote on Deon and unvoted when Deon was tied with Silver Jan at 3 (and Mahaloth had 2). The only way I see JustBeingGinger being scum is if she panic unvoted Deon, but I don't see a reason for her to panic at that point in the game. Deon was tied for the lead at the time, but no guarantee that he would get lynched. I suppose if we theorize that a scummy JustBeingGinger knew that Deon was tied to Mahaloth, that would explain her unvoting Deon at that time.
Colby votes for Deon when he could have plausibly voted for Silver Jan if he were trying to save Mahaloth, doing so would have tied Silver Jan with Mahaloth. Risk might have deterred such an action though as voting for Silver Jan in this context would "look scummy" upon future reflection. Honestly, colby was in a shitty spot here -- any vote here except for Mahaloth would look scummy in some respect. My feeling is that scum in this situation would have opted to DO NOTHING. The very fact that colby voted in this context when as scum, he would have been staring at the situation as "no win." If I were scum in that situation, I'd wait it out and see if the Mahaloth wagon took off or not.
MoodyMitchy's vote for Mahaloth comes just after JustBeingGinger unvoted Deon making Deon less vulnerable and Silver Jan in the vote lead. Even under the assumption that scum knew that Mahaloth and Deon were tied together, MoodyMitchy's vote at this point is the most pro-Town. Just when Mahaloth/Deon were push down out of danger, he votes to put Mahaloth in a tie with Silver Jan. (Strong Town Lean)
Ten minutes later Inner Sticker also votes for Mahaloth putting him in the lead (at 4) for good. (Strong Town Lean)
Gnarlycharlie's vote is less impactful than Moody's and Inner Stickler's but it does carry weight in the sense that after gnarlycharlie's vote there would be no chance of lynching anyone except Mahaloth. However, the vote came less than 6 hours to lynch. In my view the Mahaloth lynch was a done deal at this point. Any attempt to change the lynchee would be viewed under a harsh light. (Neutral)
Drain Bead, storyteller, and Scathach all voted with less than 4 hours to the end of the day on a wagon that was well established and clearly not changing. (Neutral at best)
Sinjin: Leaning Town. If scum she would not have wanted to end the day with no vote at all, but she could have just as easily voted for Mahaloth. If scum, the only reason she would not have voted for Mahaloth is if there were already a bunch of scum on the wagon, especially late (Drain, Story, Scath).
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Post by Pollux Oil on Nov 29, 2011 15:08:14 GMT -5
Okay, so I did my own look back at the end of voting for Day 1. Caerie is the first to vote for Silver Jan, citing not much substance to her posts and attempting to derail conversation. *Note: says: "this is the best I've got for Day 1." Ginger's the first to vote Deon at #172, coming up with the "when he read the rule thread" slippish thingamabobber. Silver Jan talks. Sachertorte gets confused. Sachertorte switches his vote from colby to Silver Jan. Lightfoot votes Deon, cites same reasons as Ginger + it sounded like he was screaming how not scum he was. Quotes posted, a little effort shown. Archangel comes in with the tacky-onnest, most jumpy vote on Deon, simply agreeing with Ginger's case. Ed votes for Silver Jan, agreeing with sachertorte. Now at this point, I vote for mahaloth. (Post #197). Currently tally is 3 votes Deon, 3 votes Silver Jan, 2 votes mahaloth. Throwing whether scum know of connections or not out the window, what we do know is that scum would know mahaloth is scum. In a 3-3-2 scenario, they would do whatever they could to steer the lynch away from mahaloth. In this case, either Silver Jan or Deon are the vote leaders and if they can get a bandwagon rolling on either of them, they can prevent mahaloth from being lynched. Let's continue. Deon votes Sachertorte, doesn't like the reasoning for his votes. Okay. **FIRST THING OF NOTE** Ginger unvotes Deon and votes Archangel. Instead of staying on the Deon lynch train, she removes her vote and places a one-off. This makes it a 3-2-2 race (with some one-offs). It's important because a) if scum are aware of who people are linked to, this could be JBG throwing the escape hatch to try and kick Silver Jan in the lead. But if she's doing that, why not vote for Silver Jan instead of Archangel to get a more substantial wagon lead on Deon and Mahaloth? But, in my opinion, the more likely scenario is b), this is a maneuver that puts a tiny check mark in the town column for Ginger. I don't see scum, in either scenario (knowing or not knowing links) pointing out a bandwagon, then abandoning it when one of their scum buddies is in danger. Now after that is where things get interesting. Mitchy unvotes Ed and switches to Mahaloth. Agrees with previous statements about him lurking in plain sight. That's immediately followed up by Inner agreeing, saying mahaloth's posts were filled with generic game talk and voting for him. Now the swing is in favor of Mahaloth: 4-3-2. I think mitchy and Inner are on my more likely to be town list, due to this maneuver. Both of their votes took mahaloth from lynch contender to lynch leader. I think before this, when it was 3-3-2 or 3-2-2, scum would have still tried to save their buddy. However, now that he's in the lead, some scum may see the writing on the wall and join in on the bandwagon. Which brings us to Colby. He ticks through the lynch leaders (Mahaloth, Jan, Deon) and chooses to vote for Deon. This is the only press from this point forward for an alternative to lynching Mahaloth. 4-3-3 now, but it also begs the question: Why wouldn't colby vote for Jan instead if he were scum? Tie it up, make it a closer race. It's a highly suspect vote, simply because it's the only non-Mahaloth push as the Day winds down, but it's not blatantly scummy. After that, gnarlycharlie and Drainbead put the nails in mahaloth's coffin. Gnarlycharlie says the case against him is the strongest considering Day One, and Drainbead agrees with guiri that his playstyle is reminiscent of past games as scum. And then we get to storyteller. Storyteller, in his posts, states: That said, I am startled by the speed and ease with which he went from two votes when I went to bed last Night to six votes as I sign in this morning. This is not exactly a revelation, but I’ll bet a shiny nickel that – whatever Mahaloth’s alignment turns out to be – at least one among those six votes (and most likely one among the four late-breaking votes) is Scum (either Scum hastening a mislynch or Scum trying to get in on the lynch of fellow Scum while the getting is good). I disagree with him on mitchy and Inner, but I do agree either charlie or drainbead could be opportunistic scum. Of course, I do have the luxury of knowing mahaloth is confirmed scum now while storyteller didn't. However, I also know that storyteller is smart enough to use this post as kind of misdirection. He states, in his post that one of the four could be opportunistic scum seizing a chance. And then he proceeds to slip a vote on mahaloth right then and there in the same post. His vote (and scathach's vote following him) are the easy scum positions on the bandwagon. There's no way they can save mahaloth at this point, so why not put a vote on him as well, while accusing people who voted before you as the possibility of being scum. Scathach's vote following is very "me too." He states he finds colby the most suspicious, but mahaloth's bandwagon is the least objectionable of the three and votes mahaloth. However, at this point in the Day (an hour left) the "wagons" on Jan and Deon are still at the station while mahaloth has circled around the world a few times. -------------- So after that wall of words YAAAYYYYYYYY what do I conclude? 1. Archangel's vote still strikes me as super scummy. 2. Ginger strikes me as pro-town. 3. Mitchy and Inner strike me as town, but a little less so than Ginger. 4. Colby I'm not sure about, his vote is suspect so I guess I can Finger of Suspicion him (wow, it's been a long time since I've used that) but he's lower on my list. 5. Storyteller and scathach's votes on mahaloth are the most suspect to me of scum jumping on a known loss. 6. Charlie and drainbead are in the same boat, but with a little less suspicion from me. The Lightfoot train seems to be taking off now, although she didn't strike me as overtly scummy as other people seem to think her. I'll take another look at her just to see if I can see where other people are coming from, but I'm also going to take an overall comprehensive look at Colby, Story, Scathach, Charlie, and Drainbead to see if there's any other indiciations of scummitude in addition to how they voted. Meanwhile: Vote ArchangelBecause my gut is telling me scum, and I don't have to do any comprehensive looks at her because she hasn't posted toDay, and I already know what she posted on Day One (not much).
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Post by Sister Coyote on Nov 29, 2011 15:28:12 GMT -5
But we've already seen hard evidence that SCUM are linked to other players... (well at least one was) No, what we've seen is that Scum died, and Town died, both via collar. We don't necessarily know that those players were linked, because they were the first and second vote candidates. If Lynch Candidates One and Two both die today, then we'll have a little more to go on. If Lynch Candidates One and Three (or Lynch Candidate One and someone with no votes) die at Dusk, that will tell us something as well. We are assuming linkage between players, but there's no proof yet that's the case (I think it's the most likely case, but I also think it's too early to rule out other scenarios).
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 15:30:48 GMT -5
This is not exactly a revelation, but I’ll bet a shiny nickel that – whatever Mahaloth’s alignment turns out to be – at least one among those six votes (and most likely one among the four late-breaking votes) is Scum (either Scum hastening a mislynch or Scum trying to get in on the lynch of fellow Scum while the getting is good). In reviewing Day One this part of storyteller's post stuck out to me. I don't understand it. Part of me is okay with it because give me any 6 (or 4) players and it is likely that one of them is scum. But storyteller explicitly states that regardless of Mahaloth's alignment... he would feel the same about those who voted for Mahaloth before him. And then he votes for Mahaloth! WTF? First of all, I think the fact that Mahaloth flipped scum is extremely relevant and that scum would treat the situation very differently knowing Mahaloth was scum rather than if he were town. I'm baffled that storyteller would dismiss the need to know Mahaloth's alignment when analyzing the votes. Taken at face value what storyteller is saying is applicable to ANY and ALL lynches since 'no matter the alignment' of the lynchee scum could be acting to 'hasten a mislynch' or 'get in on voting a fellow scum while the getting is good.' It's such an empty statement. This coming from storyteller? that makes even less sense.
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Post by LightFoot on Nov 29, 2011 15:45:35 GMT -5
But we've already seen hard evidence that SCUM are linked to other players... (well at least one was) No, what we've seen is that Scum died, and Town died, both via collar. We don't necessarily know that those players were linked, because they were the first and second vote candidates. If Lynch Candidates One and Two both die today, then we'll have a little more to go on. If Lynch Candidates One and Three (or Lynch Candidate One and someone with no votes) die at Dusk, that will tell us something as well. We are assuming linkage between players, but there's no proof yet that's the case (I think it's the most likely case, but I also think it's too early to rule out other scenarios). I read them as first and third. Am I missreading the vote count ? ( very possible of course)
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 16:11:26 GMT -5
I have the final vote count as 8 for Mahaloth 3 for Silver Jan 3 for Deon
Deon reached 3 first, but dropped to 2 (while Silver Jan was at 3) then went back up to 3 to tie Silver Jan. I would interpret that as Silver Jan being #2 and Deon being #3, but maybe CatInASuit.
Either way, I find Sister Coyote's assertion that vote counts affect the linkages to be off the mark. It would be terribly misleading of CatInASuit if that were the case. Mahaloth being linked to Deon a priori is the reasonable conclusion.
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Post by CatInASuit on Nov 29, 2011 16:16:17 GMT -5
Day 2 Vote Count
Special Ed (2): colby11(#48), moodymitchy(#49) lightfoot (2): storyteller(#68), Sister Coyote (#72) Archangel (2): JustBeing Ginger(#47), Pollux Oil (#80)
paranoia (1): sinjin(#11) Caerie (1): paranoia(#16) Inner Stickler (1): Drainbead(#59) colby11 (1): scathach(#63)
With these votes: Special Ed will be lynched.
Day will end in just under 23 hours.
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Post by sachertorte on Nov 29, 2011 16:51:23 GMT -5
I would have liked for paranoia to have responded to my post from yesterday. It's getting late in the day so I'll put my vote on paranoia. Essentially the vote is due to paranoia's suspicion of me that is largely based on my concerns about Special Ed. I don't understand why paranoia himself is not concerned with Special Ed as well.
Vote: paranoia
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Nov 29, 2011 17:03:02 GMT -5
So... Finally caught up...
1. Everyone was so convinced that Deon had made a slip based on him referring to the rules thread and not his own PM. No one brought up this possibility and it was my first thought. (Maybe because I read it after he had died and I knew he was town before I read the Day). Perhaps Deon didn't refer to his role PM and instead referred to the rules thread because he didn't want to tip his hand to scum that he was vanilla. The rules thread is neutral ground where the vanilla PM is showcased, if he wanted to take information from the vanilla PM then it would be wiser for him to reference there rather than his own PM. If he had referenced his PM, it would have been one less place for scum to look for him.
2. There are a number of votes Yesterday that ping the crap out of me. Colby's vote for Deon came at a point that it would benefit scum to made a townie an equally viable as Mahaloth for the lynch. Voting for Deon instead of Silverjan makes more sense to me because it makes them tied at 3 with Mahaloth only having one more vote. It doesn't draw a lot of attention, the case on Deon made more sense than the "case" on Silverjan (I didn't see it ), and it makes it so that if anyone else voted for either of them Mahaloth would have a chance of survival. Also, if a fellow scum was already voting for Mahaloth, and moved his vote following Colby's vote, they would put Colby or Silverjan in the lead by voting for them... prior to Colby's vote they would have had to choose Silverjan. AND in the 11th hour, Silverjan or Deon could have claimed sending the voters on them scrambling and ensuring Mahaloth would hang if Silver and Deon won't tied in a very close 2nd place.
I find the timing of his vote very suspect. It was at a key point and his convinction for the Deon lynch just wasn't very strong.
3. The votes for Mahaloth late in the Day. I don't get them. His fate had all but been sealed at the time of a few votes...
Scathach voted him late in the Day, even though he outright said he would rather lynch Colby. So why not vote for Colby? Why did you vote Mahaloth instead of the person you thought most suspicious? Mahaloth was gonna hang regardless of your vote... As it played out, it seems to me like an attempt to bus a scum mate... and, if Colby is scum, get in a little posturing while you are at it.
Storyteller also voted for Mahaloth very late in the Day. He also expressed that he found someone else more suspicious... so why didn't he vote for Lightfoot? Again... it makes no sense.
4. Based on the timing of their votes, I would say I am getting a slight town lean on Inner, Mitch, and Sinjin..... while getting a slight to not so slight scum read from Paranoia, Scathach, Colby, and Storyteller. Because we already have one dead scum and I doubt this game started with 5... I would suspect that I am wrong about Paranoia.... and that our remaining scum are Scathach, Colby, and Storyteller.
Scathach and Story's votes were both of no consequence and as such have less of a scummy smell from them... but Colby's could have made all the difference in the world if acted upon.
Vote: Vote Colby
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Post by Paulwhoisaghost on Nov 29, 2011 17:11:24 GMT -5
Also... after reading Day 1, I still think that the scum don't know who they are connected to. I just can't make sense of them not acting sooner to sway the votes away from Mahaloth. My guess is that Colby set it up so that they could do so.... but then someone on the scum team mentioned that by swinging the vote to someone else they could end up killing a different member of the scum team. I think Colby is scum, and his vote on Deon was placed not knowing that Deon and Mahaloth were tethered.
Further support, we now know that getting Silverjan lynched would have resulted in scum getting 2 for one since she was apparently bound to another town. (This assumes that the 2 deaths were from one scum NK as opposed to a SK+Scum combo.) So Scum knew who they were attached to, wouldn't it have been extremely beneficial to push a Silverjan lynch? They would have known that lynching either Mahaloth or Deon would have ended badly for them... and that Silverjan would have been a boon...
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Post by storyteller0910 on Nov 29, 2011 18:09:36 GMT -5
This is not exactly a revelation, but I’ll bet a shiny nickel that – whatever Mahaloth’s alignment turns out to be – at least one among those six votes (and most likely one among the four late-breaking votes) is Scum (either Scum hastening a mislynch or Scum trying to get in on the lynch of fellow Scum while the getting is good). In reviewing Day One this part of storyteller's post stuck out to me. I don't understand it. Part of me is okay with it because give me any 6 (or 4) players and it is likely that one of them is scum. But storyteller explicitly states that regardless of Mahaloth's alignment... he would feel the same about those who voted for Mahaloth before him. And then he votes for Mahaloth! WTF? First of all, I think the fact that Mahaloth flipped scum is extremely relevant and that scum would treat the situation very differently knowing Mahaloth was scum rather than if he were town. I'm baffled that storyteller would dismiss the need to know Mahaloth's alignment when analyzing the votes. Taken at face value what storyteller is saying is applicable to ANY and ALL lynches since 'no matter the alignment' of the lynchee scum could be acting to 'hasten a mislynch' or 'get in on voting a fellow scum while the getting is good.' It's such an empty statement. This coming from storyteller? that makes even less sense. Well, obviously if the thrust of my argument was as you portray it here - that those 4-6 voters probably contained Scum just because they were voters on an eventual lynch - it would indeed be an empty argument. But that's not what I said. What I actually said was this: In other words, in this particular instance I viewed the four late-breaking Mahaloth voters as suspicious specifically because of the speed with which his wagon gained traction. To go from two to six votes in twelve or so real-life hours is unusual, particularly in a case like this where the suspicion stemmed not from any kind of real Scum tell but just from a generalized sense of active non-participation. In my view, a rapidly developing bandwagon of this kind has an artificial feel, as if it is being helped along by voters whose votes are not entirely considered or sincere. And - again, in this particular case and not in every possible case - this is true regardless of whether Mahaloth flipped Town or Scum. And yes, I voted for Mahaloth. Certainly, I never said that Mahaloth votes were suspicious in and of themselves - again, it's just that the rapid movement, coupled with the relatively vague motivations behind it, suggest Scum participation. @ paul - I didn't vote for Lightfoot yesterDay because there was no practical chance that she would get lynched. Were I strongly opposed to all of the potential lynch candidates, I'd have used a one-off vote to record my suspicion, but given that I saw two of the three main candidates (Silver Jan and Mahaloth) as worthwhile targets, I preferred to use my vote as I did. Mahaloth's late-Day disappearance once he got heat made me very comfortable voting for him. @ Pollux - Yes, the timing of my vote would be an optimal place for Scum to place a vote on a team-mate. Not much I can say to that. I'm certainly not going to worry about where I place my vote chronologically from the standpoint of whether or not it will look like I am Scum - I've played like that in the past, and found it made me anxious and reduced my effectiveness both at finding Scum and convincing others to agree.
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