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Post by peekercpa on Jan 27, 2012 22:50:23 GMT -5
unless you are on board with the weird ass idea that someone is fucking with pms or that pleo is purposely fucking with us then you know your vote is full of shit. c'mon dude. me on D1 and jan on D2. you know it's true. No, I don't know it's true. I know what my role PM says and I know what results I've received but the only information we can truly trust is Pleo's death reveal. Any other information can be interfered with. Give me a plausible explantion for the claims and I'll reconsider. Three players are false claiming and will be found out once you're lynched? Some power prevented 3 people from handshaking with you last Night, but not the fourth? Your secret power is to imitate a mason? You started off as a mason but got recruited? You used the handshake to find your buddies or to be found? so your supposition is that no information from the mod can be trusted except for death reveals? interesting. that could explain a lot of shit. kind of makes this a wee bit more complicated. and since i know (or think i do) that you handshook me on D1 and i know (or think i do) that you shook jan on D2 that means that you are potentially full of shit, right? wonder what that means for our role pms. but that gets so seriously gastard than the implications are really quite unfathonable. i'm going to stick with the easier path. gnarly and boozy are lying sacks of shit. bill is the outlier. can't quite figure that one out. yet.
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Post by special on Jan 27, 2012 23:50:20 GMT -5
No, I don't know it's true. I know what my role PM says and I know what results I've received but the only information we can truly trust is Pleo's death reveal. Any other information can be interfered with. Give me a plausible explantion for the claims and I'll reconsider. Three players are false claiming and will be found out once you're lynched? Some power prevented 3 people from handshaking with you last Night, but not the fourth? Your secret power is to imitate a mason? You started off as a mason but got recruited? You used the handshake to find your buddies or to be found? so your supposition is that no information from the mod can be trusted except for death reveals? interesting. that could explain a lot of shit. kind of makes this a wee bit more complicated. and since i know (or think i do) that you handshook me on D1 and i know (or think i do) that you shook jan on D2 that means that you are potentially full of shit, right? wonder what that means for our role pms. but that gets so seriously gastard than the implications are really quite unfathonable. i'm going to stick with the easier path. gnarly and boozy are lying sacks of shit. bill is the outlier. can't quite figure that one out. yet.Why is Bill the outlier? What makes him different? guiri's case is actually sound. As Cabal, you have the power to imitate any role for one Cycle. Of course, the fact that it is exactly what the Cabal's secret power was last game is somewhat....I dunno...it seems strange. To believe what you are saying implies that 4 players have come out and claimed Mason in an attempt to get you lynched. Seems pretty far-fetched, no?
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Post by Idle Thoughts on Jan 27, 2012 23:57:59 GMT -5
This is actually a good point. I think it's a slip by Pollux Oil On Day One I claimed Witch...so if you're telling the truth why investigate me at all after that?If you're really a witch, you'd have known I wasn't and there would be no reason to investigate me since you'd know I wasn't Town already. I don't believe a real Witch would waste an investigation like that (we certainly wouldn't). this hurts my head. i mean he should know whether po is full of shit without having to logic it out. wtf up with dat? I'm not logic-ing it out for myself...I was giving him a rebuttal to his claims, showing how they don't make sense so that others can see it if they haven't thought of it/caught it already.
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Post by guiri on Jan 28, 2012 3:55:25 GMT -5
so your supposition is that no information from the mod can be trusted except for death reveals? interesting. that could explain a lot of shit. kind of makes this a wee bit more complicated. It's not a supposition, it's in the rules: and since i know (or think i do) that you handshook me on D1 and i know (or think i do) that you shook jan on D2 that means that you are potentially full of shit, right? Potentially, sure, but the only certainty I have is what my role PM says. If Pollux flips non-witch toDay, it would indicate Idle is likely to be a real witch and therefore his claim that I am Town can be trusted to some extent. How about all the claimed masons attempt to handshake with me toDay and I'll retry with either Peeker, SilverJan, or Bill (who probably won't be around to handshake with me)? That would be Boozy, Gnarly, Suburban, Silver, Peeker, and Bill. If Pollux actually is a witch, and you have no reason to believe I am Town, then we can just try multiple handshake attempts: Suburban-Boozy Boozy-Silver Silver-Gnarly Gnarly-peeker Peeker-Bill Bill-guiri Guiri-Suburban
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Post by guiri on Jan 28, 2012 4:13:53 GMT -5
Oh, Peeker, one question, who did you attempt to handshake with on Day 2?
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 28, 2012 8:26:28 GMT -5
As I just mentioned, I am a Mason. Unfortunately, I am also an Idiot, and I kept thinking that mine was a Night ability instead of a Day one, and so I failed to use it at all on Day 2. Thus I have no more information to impart. i was an idiot too.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 28, 2012 8:30:25 GMT -5
aiiiieeee. we need to get rid of the nec pretty durn quick or we will be up to our eyeballs in fucking zombies. pollux is an easy but stupid lynch. we've already got two wolves in the bag, right. so they are fucked. and unless my math is totally hosed the undead is the primary threat. vote gnarley. either he or squid (or both) are undead. quite a jump of logic. as others have said, i can be verified as a Freemason quite easily.
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Post by guiri on Jan 28, 2012 10:36:35 GMT -5
Let me rephrase my suggestion, scapping the conditions so we can get some answers at Dusk rather than wait a cycle. If the general consensus is to trust Idle over Pollux, I can be trusted as Town from the investigation, and as a mason from the double successful handshakes: How about all the claimed masons attempt to handshake with me toDay and I'll retry with either Peeker, SilverJan, or Bill (who probably won't be around to handshake with me)? That would be Boozy, Gnarly, Suburban, Silver, Peeker, and Bill.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 28, 2012 12:47:21 GMT -5
I'm reading through to try and sort out the Mason claims before posting my thoughts, which you can all await with baited breath. As I go, I'd like to pick a couple of points on this. Let's see if I have this correct: 01. Mr Special Ed NOT mason02. Hoopy Frood 03. BillMc Mason04. colby11 05. texcat - Lynched Day Two - zombified Night Two Wolf06. Nanook 07. Silver Jan Mason08. Drain Bead 09. hirkatbawa 10. gnarlycharlie Mason11. peekercpa Mason12. Pollux Oil Witch/ Wolf13. Inner Stickler 14. Sister Coyote 15. CatInASuit 16. Suburban Plankton Mason17. septimus Coroner18. scathach - Killed Night Two 19. Boozahol Squid Mason20. JustBeingGinger - Killed Night One - Town (Mason?)21. Merestil Haye 22. guiri Mason 23. Idle Thoughts Witch/ Cabal24. mahaloth - Lynched Day One - Zombified Night One - Wolf25. deon That means 7 masons id Ginger was one. JustBeingGinger did claim to be a Freemason. Her claim is found in N01.019. As you will see, she explicitly declared herself a Mason; the declaration "I am also a Mason" doesn't leave any wiggle room. I don't understand how JBG could have two results, unless peeker tried to handshake with her, and peeker has claimed to try handshaking with Mr. Special Ed ( N01.016.) My current hypothesis is that that is not a declaration that Peeker is a Mason, but a call to Peeker to try handshaking with her the following Day; something that, tragically, proved impossible. To Pollux Oil. You have stated that your coven's investigation N2 yielded a Town result. Was the investigation any of the Freemason claimants? If so, who?
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Post by Drain Bead on Jan 28, 2012 13:59:45 GMT -5
Just a quick note to say that this weekend is my daughter's birthday party, plus I'm attempting to paint and prime about a third of my house, so I'll be more scarce than usual this weekend.
I like guiri's plan, BTW, just in case it comes down to a vote or something.
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Post by guiri on Jan 28, 2012 15:45:53 GMT -5
Just a quick note to say that this weekend is my daughter's birthday party /oog Hey, my girls just had their birthday party today too! Happy birthday Drain's daughter! Is she 3 too?
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Post by Drain Bead on Jan 28, 2012 16:27:53 GMT -5
Yes, actually. Officially she'll be 3 on Tuesday. Fun age.
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Post by septimus on Jan 28, 2012 17:06:18 GMT -5
Although I am somewhat suspicious of Idle (partly based on previous games), for Pollux to be the real Witch would involve a number of odds-against and illogical facts. I think Pollux should be the Lynchee toDay. For one thing, the two other top contenders are Real Masons in the most likely scenario (that peeker is some sort of Fake Mason). Also, as was pointed out, Lynching an outed Wolf is necessary to maximize our Detectives' Power.
What I would ask is for a Mason to PM Pleo to ask this question:
If I attempt handshake with someone I've already handshaked with, will I get a fresh result independent of the prior handshake?
I think it's 99% the answer is Yes, but I'd want to double-check before defining a Mason-handshaking regime for toDay.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 28, 2012 17:33:25 GMT -5
What I would ask is for a Mason to PM Pleo to ask this question: If I attempt handshake with someone I've already handshaked with, will I get a fresh result independent of the prior handshake?I think it's 99% the answer is Yes, but I'd want to double-check before defining a Mason-handshaking regime for toDay. Done. I'll let you know when I get a reply.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 28, 2012 17:34:32 GMT -5
Though I am against any pre-defined 'Mason-handshaking regime'.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 29, 2012 0:59:28 GMT -5
Just how many masons do we actually have? *confused* For the time being, I'll just vote for the ones who I don't believe to be masons now Vote: Bill Vote: gnarlycharlie I'll leave it at that for now care to share your reasons? Although I am somewhat suspicious of Idle (partly based on previous games), for Pollux to be the real Witch would involve a number of odds-against and illogical facts. I think Pollux should be the Lynchee toDay. For one thing, the two other top contenders are Real Masons in the most likely scenario (that peeker is some sort of Fake Mason). Also, as was pointed out, Lynching an outed Wolf is necessary to maximize our Detectives' Power. What I would ask is for a Mason to PM Pleo to ask this question: If I attempt handshake with someone I've already handshaked with, will I get a fresh result independent of the prior handshake?I think it's 99% the answer is Yes, but I'd want to double-check before defining a Mason-handshaking regime for toDay. done.
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Post by guiri on Jan 29, 2012 17:23:26 GMT -5
What I would ask is for a Mason to PM Pleo to ask this question: If I attempt handshake with someone I've already handshaked with, will I get a fresh result independent of the prior handshake?I think it's 99% the answer is Yes, but I'd want to double-check before defining a Mason-handshaking regime for toDay. The answer is yes.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 29, 2012 19:45:38 GMT -5
I concur.
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Post by peekercpa on Jan 29, 2012 21:47:29 GMT -5
ok, i'll catch up manana. two back to back sixteen hours have whooped me. but at least from a 30k level i theoretically agree with some sort of cross confirmation attempt in addition to what seems to be confirmation attempts. and i just got confirmation from our fucking piece of shit mod that communication from him is not necessarily accurate except for the death reveals as guiri (i think) pointed out (those pesky rules threads dontchaknow). also i have to agree with guiri and burby that subsequent handshakes may in fact reveal contrary or similar data. but since any pm from the mod can be compromised, so to speak, i am kind of a little unsure what the fuck that will mean. other than the fact that i reamain unconvinced that there are more fucking masons than fucking lemmings, fcs. and i am tempted to shake with ed again. although if he pops mason this time i give the fuck up.
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Post by gnarlycharlie on Jan 29, 2012 22:59:04 GMT -5
What I would ask is for a Mason to PM Pleo to ask this question: If I attempt handshake with someone I've already handshaked with, will I get a fresh result independent of the prior handshake?I think it's 99% the answer is Yes, but I'd want to double-check before defining a Mason-handshaking regime for toDay. The answer is yes. Same reply to me.
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Post by Drain Bead on Jan 29, 2012 23:00:16 GMT -5
ok, i'll catch up manana. two back to back sixteen hours have whooped me. but at least from a 30k level i theoretically agree with some sort of cross confirmation attempt in addition to what seems to be confirmation attempts. and i just got confirmation from our fucking piece of shit mod that communication from him is not necessarily accurate except for the death reveals as guiri (i think) pointed out (those pesky rules threads dontchaknow). also i have to agree with guiri and burby that subsequent handshakes may in fact reveal contrary or similar data. but since any pm from the mod can be compromised, so to speak, i am kind of a little unsure what the fuck that will mean. other than the fact that i reamain unconvinced that there are more fucking masons than fucking lemmings, fcs. and i am tempted to shake with ed again. although if he pops mason this time i give the fuck up. Hasn't ed specifically claimed not-Mason?
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Post by Silver Jan on Jan 30, 2012 2:00:22 GMT -5
This game is doing my head in!
The only person I think I can trust at the moment is guiri because two different people have confirmed him, Idle said he was Town and I got a PM saying that he is a Mason.
I don't think I have ever played a game with so many "masons" in it before.
Pollux has been outed as a Wolf and now he's claiming to be a witch?
I think at the moment I would rather trust Idle because he said that guiri was Town and I could later confirm that. Yep, I am happy with my vote on Pollux.
@ peeker, why would you want to handshake with ed again because we both got PM's saying that he isn't a mason and he even said so himself, I would rather handshake with someone else that could be a mason.
I also thought that JBG was asking peeker to handshake with her the next Day because she had found out that Septimus wasn't a mason that Day.
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Post by CatInASuit on Jan 30, 2012 6:32:01 GMT -5
Hmm,
Two things spring to mind while reading all of this.
1. Assume nothing and expect Everything
2. The goal of every scum is to be confirmed town.
Given we have eight claimed masons, including JBG, I would be amazed if all of them turn out to be town. I would be expecting 4 or 5 at the most.
This would mean that of those still alive, I would expect 3 of them to be non-Town. Now Pleonast could have pulled a fast one and actually had the majority of the town as Witches and Freemasons with a couple of other roles thrown in, but that would pretty much be a game breaker once it came out. Also, the numbers of claimed masons will drop off dramatically over the next couple of nights whether they are a mason or not.
There is nothing to say there are not more than one Omega Wolf, which could lead to an interesting secret power, but I am beginning to think that there are Cabal involved in this.
In particular, Pleonast has recycled their one-off power duplication again, although perhaps not without the list of players in the game.
This makes me think that it is highly likely a Cabal member would be able to "confirm" their townie status as a freemason.
Along those lines, I am highly distrustful of Idle Thoughts at this point due to point (2) above. A hasty rush to prove something which didn't need to be proved makes me highly suspicious. The only reason for his reveal I can think of was to try and convince the town he was a Witch.
The catch is that we don't know if guiri is town. If he is not, then he is not going to say anything about it, although he would know that Idle Thoughts was lying. But to say otherwise would be to sign his own lynch warrant. Idle Thoughts may not have investigated anyone and is playing WiFOM with the town.
The other possibility exists that guiri is also part of the same team as peeker, Idle and Silver Jan, in which case he will mimic a freemason tonight and "confirm" himself as well.
However, until we know more its just a possibility, nothing more.
My suggestion for toDay is the same as it was.
Each of the claimed masons handshakes with someone else in a circle and returns their results at dusk.
And then does the same again the following Night.
Now as for Pollux Oil and Idle Thoughts. If Pollux Oil is a Witch, we will wind up with two outed Witches before the end of Day, considering most people seem to believe Idle. This would be the ideal situation for most scum, apart from perhaps Idle's team.
If Idle Thoughts is a Witch, then the Wolves lose another player, which is fine for everyone expect the Wolves, are down a couple already.
Of course, there may not be any Witches in the game and both of them are lying although on different teams. Or possibly even the same team as a method to "confirm" one of them as town.
Aah, decisions, decisions. It's not one we have to have now which could seriously impact the game for the town, especially given the number of revealed players.
However, looking at the vote count, it seems Pollux Oil is to be lynched. Oh well, either he dies or someone else confirms him as a Witch.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 30, 2012 10:42:50 GMT -5
Pontification mode ON
The conflicting Witch claims.
Having been a Witch when someone false-claims Witch, I remember we decided not to investigate Nanook straight away, but just let the false claims play out for a while (the timing of our claim being dictated by the death of the first witch.) In general, then, I'd lean towards considering Idle more likely to be the true Witch. However, I'm not wholly convinced because Idle's previous actions do make a Polluxian coven's investigation of Idle reasonable.
We seem to be heading towards a lynch of Pollux, which I am comfortable with overall. However, I need to consider whether a lynch of a Mason claimant would yield more information than lynching Pollux. I would urge those voting a Mason and Pollux to think about this also, and if you decide it's better to lynch a Mason, unvote Pollux. You can always put the vote back if insufficient people agree with your Mason lynch.
I need to compile a Mason chart. Back soon.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 30, 2012 10:53:15 GMT -5
Of course, there may not be any Witches in the game and both of them are lying although on different teams. Or possibly even the same team as a method to "confirm" one of them as town. If there are no Witches, then the Cabal has already met one of its win conditions. Unless there is no Cabal either. But in that case we're not really playing Conspiracy any more, are we? There must be Witches in this game. In a similar vein, there must be Freemasons, and there must be a Vicar. Any of the other Town roles might be unnecessary, but these are required in order to create and maintain balance between the various factions.
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Post by Merestil Haye on Jan 30, 2012 11:02:28 GMT -5
Of course, there may not be any Witches in the game and both of them are lying although on different teams. Or possibly even the same team as a method to "confirm" one of them as town. If there are no Witches, then the Cabal has already met one of its win conditions. Unless there is no Cabal either. But in that case we're not really playing Conspiracy any more, are we? There must be Witches in this game. Previous iterations of this game have included a declaration in the rules that there may be zero Witches. Memory says that if that is the case there would be no Cabal either, but I can't check that out right now. There is no requirement for either of those roles in the rules either. In particular, Freemasons are not required - a single claimed Freemason is probably the Omega Wolf. The enemy of the Wolves is the Detective, not the Freemason group. Similarly, I speculate that a possible lineup includes just one Undead - a Necromancer - and no Vicar. That would certainly explain the kill rates we've been seeing, and also why the Necromancer has never failed to raise a Zombie. (Alternate explanations include both Vampire and Vicar being in the group of AWOL players.)
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Post by CatInASuit on Jan 30, 2012 11:29:27 GMT -5
If there are no Witches, then the Cabal has already met one of its win conditions. Unless there is no Cabal either. But in that case we're not really playing Conspiracy any more, are we? There must be Witches in this game. In a similar vein, there must be Freemasons, and there must be a Vicar. Any of the other Town roles might be unnecessary, but these are required in order to create and maintain balance between the various factions. It is highly ambiguous as to the existence of Witches. It is likely they exist, but not guaranteed. I merely ask that people keep it in mind.
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Post by guiri on Jan 30, 2012 12:50:27 GMT -5
Peeker, can you answer this question? Oh, Peeker, one question, who did you attempt to handshake with on Day 2?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Jan 30, 2012 13:40:51 GMT -5
Based upon Ed's D1-64 Post, the previous game makeups have included: Conspiracy 13 Witches 4 Freemasons 1 Vicar 1 Alpha Wolf 1 Omega Wolf 3 Cabalists 1 Vampire 1 Necromancer Conspiracy 23 Witches 4 Freemasons 1 Vicar 1 Alpha Wolf 1 Omega Wolf 5 Cabalists 2 Vampires 1 Necromancer Conspiracy 33 Witches 0 Freemasons 2 Vicars 1 Alpha Wolf 1 Omega Wolf 4 Cabalists 2 Vampires 2 Necromancers Conspiracy 43 Witches 3 Freemasons 1 Vicar 1 Alpha Wolf 1 Omega Wolf 3 Cabalists 2 Vampires 1 Necromancer To me that strongly suggests that this game will have 3 Witches, 1 Alpha Wolf, 1 Omega Wolf, and at least 1 Vicar. I do note that there were no Freemasons in Conspiracy 3, but I know for a fact that they exist in this game. Certainly one can conceive of lineups that exclude one or more of these elements (which may then require that other elements are similarly excluded or restricted); however, I fail to see how it helps us to assume that any role is absent from this game.
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Post by Drain Bead on Jan 30, 2012 20:39:03 GMT -5
It seems like we've reached the end of conversation. Time to move forward.
Vote: End Day
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