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Post by Idle Thoughts on Feb 24, 2012 4:26:45 GMT -5
Mason Handshaking Circle of Trustgnarlycharlie handshakes Suburban Plankton Suburban Plankton handshakes Hoopy Frood Hoopy Frood handshakes Boozahol Squid Boozahol Squid handshakes gnarlycharlie But I'll bet on them all coming back positively. Really, it's utterly pointless by now (and I thought it was utterly pointless two Days ago, even, but even more so now). It's very obvious everyone is going to report everyone else is a Mason by now.
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Post by septimus on Feb 24, 2012 5:42:03 GMT -5
... Best guess would be as follows. Cabal - Deon Vampire - Inner Stickler Omega Wolf - Sister Coyote For Note: deon did appear last night, but posted nothing. We will need to kill off the remaning lurkers to be sure, although given that we still have two Witches, the Cabal cannot win.... Checking now I see "deon last login Feb 22." Did anyone check his previous logins earlier, or is there a way to do so now? I don't understand why Ed is confident that the Masons have all joined Cabal, but if it's true I think it just means we have to Lynch our Night Killer(s) soon, rather than to try, futilely, to Lynch off all the Cabal. So who is the Omega Wolf? The Omega Wolf might have been acting suspiciously early in the game, hoping to attract an Investigation. Among our Omega Wolf candidates, doesn't that criterion fit CatInaSuit best?
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Post by CatInASuit on Feb 24, 2012 5:43:10 GMT -5
Vote: End of Day
Can't think of much reason at this point to string it out, I think most people have made up their minds at this point.
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Post by CatInASuit on Feb 24, 2012 9:47:59 GMT -5
I don't understand why Ed is confident that the Masons have all joined Cabal, but if it's true I think it just means we have to Lynch our Night Killer(s) soon, rather than to try, futilely, to Lynch off all the Cabal. Ed and Idle thinks all the masons are cabal because they have all handshaken and cross confirmed each other, so must all be on the same side. As BillMc came back Cabal, so must everyone else be. If everyone was a Cabal, then there have been 7 or so Cabal since the End of Day Three when a few of them confirmed guiri and he came back Cabal after death. Same situation really. I personally think it simpler that recruiting took place as follows Day 1: ?? Day 2: Silver Jan Day 3: Guiri Day 4: ?? Day 5: ?? Day 6: BillMc That way not only would handshakes resolve correctly, they would be recruited, it would explain septimus' results and SilverJan's reaction on Night 2. If recruiting was a Day power, it would allow a single Cabal to exist instead of really needing two of them. PS: I'm not the Omega Wolf, but would prefer not to be mislynched by everyone to find that out. Then again... it would mean I get to tell you all what I think of you after the lynch and still be alive to do it succinctly. Now that I am looking forward to.
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Feb 24, 2012 12:17:46 GMT -5
I have no problem continuing the Mason handshakes, but I think it's pretty obvious by this point that they're worthless. We can tell that Cabal have the ability to impersonate Masons (whether temporarily or permanently is still unclear at this point), so a Mason/Cabalist handshake is going to 'succeed' just like a Mason/Mason handshake. And with us setting the order ahead of time, we give the cabal whatever information they may need to ensure that they can keep up the ruse.
We haven't had a 'failed' handshake with a claimed Mason since Day 3, when 3 people countered Silver Jan's claim, and one of those was peeker, who was Cabal and therefore knew that Jan was Cabal. I'm guessing that there was some sort of 'failure to act' there...and since then all of the Mason handshakes have been unreliable. I would be pretty darn surprised if we had any failed handshake from this point onward.
If deon is 'playing' but not posting, then he needs to be eliminated. Of course, it's possible that he logged in to the board but came nowhere near the game. I think there's a fair chance that one of the two non-participants is non-Town; as long as they are definitely not participating we can leave them for 'later', but if one of them is being 'sneaky' that's another story.
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Post by septimus on Feb 24, 2012 15:06:15 GMT -5
I've changed my mind again. It just occurred to me that my argument for CatInaSuit being Omega Wolf might apply equally to his being Scotsman. (His early play was almost so as to attract suspicion while Sister Coyote and Inner Stickler were more "lying low." But, just as an Omega is eager for an Investigation, so a Scotsman is not overly worried about Lynch or Night Kill.) 3. Inner Stickler's town secret power claim. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha...Umm no. As I said above all powers resolve simultaneously, so you if you had used a secret power on Drain Bead you would have received details for her, even if she had died that Night. @ Inner Stickler - are you saying you got no results on Drain Bead, or just that the results are useless now? Vote: Inner SticklerAnd I'm doubtful about Sister Coyote as well. Checking her vote record we see that she wasn't helping to Lynch Wolves: her Day 2 and Day 3 votes on Wolf Lynchees came when the results were foregone conclusions. Vote: Sister CoyoteUnvote: CatInaSuitIf deon is 'playing' but not posting, then he needs to be eliminated. Of course, it's possible that he logged in to the board but came nowhere near the game. I think there's a fair chance that one of the two non-participants is non-Town; as long as they are definitely not participating we can leave them for 'later', but if one of them is being 'sneaky' that's another story. Am I wrong that no one would log in here except to check this game (or an historic Mafia game?) I don't know what faction he is, but I'd bet that deon is not Town. Lynching non-participants, even if Town, has value since their presence detracts from our absolute-majority Lynch requirement. If the Cabal has become as large as special ed fears, it may soon be impossible to Lynch them by force. Lynching deon, even if Town, would be far far better than a MisLynch.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Feb 24, 2012 17:39:30 GMT -5
If the Cabal has become as large as special ed fears, it may soon be impossible to Lynch them by force. Lynching deon, even if Town, would be far far better than a MisLynch. A + B = something other than the conclusion you draw, here. If Ed's suspicions are correct, wouldn't it be better to lynch into the "Mason" pool -- where we know there are lurking Cabal? -- than to lynch a Townie? vote: septimusRegarding my D2/3 votes: I didn't have as much time as I thought I would when I committed to this game. In fact, if it weren't for the fact that Pleo doesn't allow for substitutes, I would have asked to be subbed out Night 2. So no, I didn't put as much effort into those votes as I might have had I not been struggling.
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 17:47:01 GMT -5
Am I wrong that no one would log in here except to check this game (or an historic Mafia game?) I don't know what faction he is, but I'd bet that deon is not Town. Lynching non-participants, even if Town, has value since their presence detracts from our absolute-majority Lynch requirement. If the Cabal has become as large as special ed fears, it may soon be impossible to Lynch them by force. Lynching deon, even if Town, would be far far better than a MisLynch. Lynching the Cabal would be better.
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 17:50:18 GMT -5
So, um...claimed warlocks? Are either of you responsible for any of the extra deaths we've had?
I have to assume that it's the only thing keeping any wolves from killing us witches.
So, I can say you probably aren't both wolves...
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Feb 24, 2012 18:37:39 GMT -5
So, um...claimed warlocks? Are either of you responsible for any of the extra deaths we've had? I have to assume that it's the only thing keeping any wolves from killing us witches. So, I can say you probably aren't both wolves... The 'extra' deaths were among the following group: guiri (Mason/Cabalist) septimus (Coronoer) Nanook (Detective) Drain Bead (Necromancer) It seems unlikely that any of these people performed a Night Kill in order to have activated a Warlock curse. It may be fear of the curse that's keeping the Wolves at bay (I can't believe I actually got to use that phrase in a [more-or-less] literal sense)...but I don't think any of the deaths are due to a Warlock curse.
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Post by septimus on Feb 24, 2012 18:41:27 GMT -5
If the Cabal has become as large as special ed fears, it may soon be impossible to Lynch them by force. Lynching deon, even if Town, would be far far better than a MisLynch. A + B = something other than the conclusion you draw, here. If Ed's suspicions are correct, wouldn't it be better to lynch into the "Mason" pool -- where we know there are lurking Cabal? -- than to lynch a Townie? Am I wrong that no one would log in here except to check this game (or an historic Mafia game?) I don't know what faction he is, but I'd bet that deon is not Town. Lynching non-participants, even if Town, has value since their presence detracts from our absolute-majority Lynch requirement. If the Cabal has become as large as special ed fears, it may soon be impossible to Lynch them by force. Lynching deon, even if Town, would be far far better than a MisLynch. Lynching the Cabal would be better. With the exception of texcat's special Kill, and the unexplained Night 5 kill, we seem to have only a single active Night Killer -- presumably the Omega Wolf. If we Lynch him toDay, the game is essentially over -- Town wins. In that case Cabal are irrelevant. If Cabal is as strong as Ed fears, and Night Killer lives long enough to kill a Witch, the game comes down to Town versus Cabal and neither side will have enough votes to Lynch the other. Instead we'll have a silly endgame: Day 8) No Lynch Night 8) NK Town Day 9) No Lynch Night 9) NK Cabal Day 10) Repeat from Day 8. So what do we do? I don't know. We should Lynch whichever of SisC, Sticks, or Cat is a Night Killer but I'm not sure which one of them is lying All I'm saying is that Lynching deon is likely to get us Scum and may have the same effect on the game's outcome as Lynching Cabal even if deon is Town!
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Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 24, 2012 18:50:05 GMT -5
@ Inner Stickler - are you saying you got no results on Drain Bead, or just that the results are useless now? Drain Bead is a Necromancer. Their targets and results: Night One, mahaloth, zombified; Night Two, texcat, zombified; Night Three, JustBeingGinger, zombified; Night Four, scathach, zombified; Night Five, colby11, failed. Between the coroner report and the fact that everyone is alerted to the creation of a zombie, I learned nothing I couldn't have already known so I couldn't prove my case. That's why they were useless. Vote: CIAS Vote: SisterCoyote
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 18:54:09 GMT -5
Well, I may as well come clean. I really AM a warlock, but I also have the townie secret power. Every night I could choose to use it instead of the warlock enchantment on another player and learn their role and all their previous targets and whether their night actions were successful. It also blocks them from using any nonsecret powers. The restriction is that if I use it on a fellow townie, I lose the ability to use it for good. I used it on Night 5 on Drain Bead but then she had to go and die and the witches had also investigated her anyway so that was a great use of my time. Last night, I investigated Hirka,. He's the town vicar and has targeted no players. And, consequently, I no longer have the secret power. Just wanted these posts from Inner next to each other
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 18:55:29 GMT -5
Inner, why did you choose to investigate Hirka?
Why didn't you use the power on Sister?
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Post by Suburban Plankton on Feb 24, 2012 19:01:34 GMT -5
@ Inner Stickler - are you saying you got no results on Drain Bead, or just that the results are useless now? Drain Bead is a Necromancer. Their targets and results: Night One, mahaloth, zombified; Night Two, texcat, zombified; Night Three, JustBeingGinger, zombified; Night Four, scathach, zombified; Night Five, colby11, failed. Between the coroner report and the fact that everyone is alerted to the creation of a zombie, I learned nothing I couldn't have already known so I couldn't prove my case. That's why they were useless. Well, one thing is for certain: if you're telling the truth, those results really were worthless. Considering that we already knew everything you've just told us with the exception of colby's name, and that particular data point is both completely irrelevant and absolutely unverifiable.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 24, 2012 19:01:50 GMT -5
Because I didn't want to risk investigating the same person as you and Idle again.
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Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 24, 2012 19:03:36 GMT -5
Well, one thing is for certain: if you're telling the truth, those results really were worthless. Considering that we already knew everything you've just told us with the exception of colby's name, and that particular data point is both completely irrelevant and absolutely unverifiable. No shit, sherlock. Hey, maybe that's why I said they were worthless, and you'll note, didn't say anything Yesterday about them.
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 19:22:38 GMT -5
Because I didn't want to risk investigating the same person as you and Idle again. And you thought we wouldn't investigate in the lurking pool? What kind of odds did you give to us investigating Sister?
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Post by Inner Stickler on Feb 24, 2012 20:02:37 GMT -5
I figured 70-30 you guys targeting sister or me vs one of the mason pool members.
This is really rich. You have an entire group of people that consistently fail to flip what they claim and everyone's voting for me.
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Post by Sister Coyote on Feb 24, 2012 21:47:11 GMT -5
As I said, I'd be happy to lynch into the "Mason" pool instead, IS, but no one else seems inclined to go that way.
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 22:18:11 GMT -5
As I said, I'd be happy to lynch into the "Mason" pool instead, IS, but no one else seems inclined to go that way. Here's the dilemma. I don't think they're killing us. And I think they, along with you and IS, might be keeping myself and Idle alive. Here's a scenario: Cabal: Hoopy gnarly Suburban Boozy Witches: Idle Ed Coroner: septimus Lurkers: Hirka deon Warlocks and more: Sister Inner CatInASuit ~~~~~~~~~~~~ Now, if I had to guess, our killer(s) is a part or all of the 3 of you and maybe a lurker or two. That's 5 people to lynch before we kill off the Cabal. Right now, the game with Cabal stands at 4 Cabal vs 2 witches. As long as the killer(s) allow Idle and I to live, the Cabal cannot win. It brings us to an odd place. If the killer(s) take out a witch, they force the Town to kill off the Cabal before hunting the killers. I really and truly don't understand why Idle and I have not been killed. Our killer(s) cannot win with us alive, because we will continue to hunt in the killing pool. Our killer(s) also must fear our investigations. Of the 5 in our potential lynch pool, we've already investigated 2. Now, if they kill a witch, then Town must lynch the Cabal, as the killers pick the Town off. And with 2 lurkers, it really doesn't look good for Town. ~~~~~~~~~~~ So, with that said, I think we have our course of action: 1. We either take out our only remaining killer with the lynch toDay and win, or 2. We go into the Night hoping that we have a real Warlock. And, Warlock, if the Witches protect toNight, we will protect Idle. (I haven't discussed this with him yet, but I think he'll agree. Besides we can discuss this openly anyway). So, Warlock, then I suggest you enchant me. And lets hope there's no Vampire or we kill the Vampire toDay.
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Post by special on Feb 24, 2012 22:19:36 GMT -5
With all that said, to increase the witches chance of surviving, I think we need to lynch either CIAS or a lurker.
Unvote: Inner Vote: hirka Vote: deon Vote: CatInASuit
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Post by septimus on Feb 25, 2012 16:01:11 GMT -5
I'll cooperate with Witches' plan.
Vote: CatInaSuit [/color]
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Post by special on Feb 25, 2012 16:04:36 GMT -5
I'll cooperate with Witches' plan. Vote: CatInaSuit [/color][/quote] to be fair, it's only my plan so far. and I'm seriously questioning myself voting for someone we investigated as Town...
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Post by septimus on Feb 26, 2012 12:54:26 GMT -5
The vote is 5-5-2 right now (Cat, Sticks, SisC) with 6 needed to Lynch. Idle is "happy" to Lynch any of the three but hasn't voted yet. Gnarlie and Boozy have yet to appear toDay.
If we decide that Sticks or SisC is much more likely than Cat to be the Omega Wolf, Lynching him/her instead might work almost as well. If Lynchee flips Warlock and Ed is killed toNight, we can almost assume the other "Warlock" is scum. Then we'd just need to be careful to keep Deon the Vampire alive until all the Mason/Cabalists are Lynched.
I am doubtful that CatInaSuit is really the Omega Wolf. If you examine his voting record, he was leading the way on some of the Wolf Lynches. I'm far too confused to analyze the endgame, but Lynching Hoopy the Cabalist might be the safest way forward now.
BTW: assuming Cat is the Scotsman and an NK had been directed against him previously, would we or he have been so informed?
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Post by septimus on Feb 26, 2012 12:56:28 GMT -5
On a separate matter: Do others have trouble on this board with slow responses and lost posts?
I have Firefox ABP installed. Is it appropriate to disable "google-analytics" or other servers this board ends up "waiting" for?
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Post by special on Feb 26, 2012 13:04:30 GMT -5
The vote is 5-5-2 right now (Cat, Sticks, SisC) with 6 needed to Lynch. Idle is "happy" to Lynch any of the three but hasn't voted yet. Gnarlie and Boozy have yet to appear toDay. If we decide that Sticks or SisC is much more likely than Cat to be the Omega Wolf, Lynching him/her instead might work almost as well. If Lynchee flips Warlock and Ed is killed toNight, we can almost assume the other "Warlock" is scum. Then we'd just need to be careful to keep Deon the Vampire alive until all the Mason/Cabalists are Lynched. I am doubtful that CatInaSuit is really the Omega Wolf. If you examine his voting record, he was leading the way on some of the Wolf Lynches. I'm far too confused to analyze the endgame, but Lynching Hoopy the Cabalist might be the safest way forward now. BTW: assuming Cat is the Scotsman and an NK had been directed against him previously, would we or he have been so informed? That is all good and well, but with me dead, we cannot kill the remaining wolf/wolves until we have finished off the Cabal. They win as soon as the killing roles are gone with only 1 witch alive.
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Post by special on Feb 26, 2012 13:05:25 GMT -5
We would have been informed that CIAS was Scotsman if an attempt on his life had been made.
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Post by septimus on Feb 26, 2012 13:12:19 GMT -5
That is all good and well, but with me dead, we cannot kill the remaining wolf/wolves until we have finished off the Cabal. They win as soon as the killing roles are gone with only 1 witch alive. That's why I wrote "Then we'd just need to be careful to keep Deon the Vampire alive until all the Mason/Cabalists are Lynched." Is it really likely that Undead team started with a single player? Was their special power that special? If we did start with zero Vampires and can't guess who the remaining Wolf is real soon, then it might be safest to start Lynching Cabalists now, beginning with Hoopy.
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Post by special on Feb 26, 2012 14:02:15 GMT -5
why Hoopy?
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