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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:07:10 GMT -5
Dammit.
I didn't say Pleo was smart to do this. In fact, I've said exactly the opposite several times.
But obviously, given that he DID do this, it is better for him and for Town if he is a vanilla Townsperson who can draw Scum attention and hopefully a Scum kill than if he is a Town power role who's just going to get killed early on and squander his powers.
(And, to preempt Meeko: it's also possible he's scum, of course. Hence my reference to my post examining the various risks and benefits of each of his possible roles to waiting until Day Four to deal with him.)
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:09:37 GMT -5
As for waiting several days before looking at Pleo again, what harm would it do? This game has multiple scum (probably ~15, if the distribution is the way it normally is). Focusing on Pleo will not win us the game. Look, it's like this. Let's say we wait until, I dunno, Day Four (a number that I pulled out of the air the first time) to look at Pleo again. Here are the possible outcomes: (1) Pleo is a Town Power Role. He either gets killed by the scum right off the bat (which is why claiming this early would be a bad idea), or he's able to survive multiple nights to use his power for the Town. Pro-Town result. (2) Pleo is a Townie with no powers. He forces the Scum to decide whether he's telling the truth about him, and energy wasted by the Scum on Pleo is energy that the Scum isn't expending finding the OTHER power roles. If he gets killed by the Scum, that's awesome (see my post about how one of the primary goals for a vanilla townsperson is getting killed by the Scum). If he doesn't get killed by the Scum, we can look at him again on Day Four. So either Pro-Town result (he gets killed by Scum) or neutral result (we wait until Day Four and he gets mislynched or whatever then). Keep in mind, too, that probabilistically this is the most likely scenario. There are almost certainly many more Vanilla Townspeople in this game than any other role, including Scum.(3) Pleo is a Scum with no powers. This is unlikely, to begin with, since ~75 percent or thereabouts of the player pool is Town. But even if Pleo is a vanilla Scum, there are almost certainly more than a dozen other Scum in the game. Waiting until Day Four to resolve Pleo does not preclude us from being able to lynch other Scum on Days One through Three (and gain information from those lynches, even if they're mislynches, in a way we can't with Pleo, since people have such an easy, lazy excuse to jump on the Pleo bandwagon.) Neutral to, at worst, slightly anti-Town outcome if he's actually Scum (which, again, he probably isn't). (4) Pleo is a Scum with Powers. First of all, we don't even know if they exist. Second of all, if they do exist, they are certainly the role that comprises the smallest percentage of the player pool, so Pleo being a powered Scum is easily the least likely outcome of these four. Nevertheless, on the miniscule chance that Pleo is, say, a Scum Detective or Scum Doctor, it would obviously be bad to let him live multiple days. This, then, is the worst case scenario. But the likelihood of his outcome is so small compared to (1), (2), or (3), that lynching Pleo now JUST IN CASE he's a powered Scum makes no sense at all. You might as well lynch me now JUST IN CASE I'm a powered Scum, too. You're shooting blindly in the dark. Tell me specifically what you disagree with about this, kagemoto. Also Meeko. Also CatInASuit. And I would still very much like to hear from Bill.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:12:26 GMT -5
The thing I think is funny, too, is that people keep saying, "well, I don't know who to vote for; you're not giving any alternatives." First of all, it shouldn't be incumbent on me to provide alternatives; everyone should be able to figure out who they think is scummiest -- ideally out of the people who are currently the most likely candidates for lynch -- and express those thoughts themselves. Second, I keep bringing up starrirain and her sketchy post followed by her complete disappearance, and yet for some reason that wagon isn't gaining any further traction at all, and I'm scolded for focusing on one person. You can't have it both ways, guys.
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Post by lianne on May 11, 2012 10:17:25 GMT -5
The thing I think is funny, too, is that people keep saying, "well, I don't know who to vote for; you're not giving any alternatives." First of all, it shouldn't be incumbent on me to provide alternatives; everyone should be able to figure out who they think is scummiest -- ideally out of the people who are currently the most likely candidates for lynch -- and express those thoughts themselves. Second, I keep bringing up starrirain and her sketchy post followed by her complete disappearance, and yet for some reason that wagon isn't gaining any further traction at all, and I'm scolded for focusing on one person. You can't have it both ways, guys. Personally I was not trying to say you should tell me who else to vote for. Just that you have provided some very good arguments why we should not vote for Pleonast and would appreciate any thoughts you have on any other candidates. Those of you who are established players have a great deal to offer but only the same vote as the rest of us. I can see you point on starrirain, but it is not a great deal to go on and I don't want to just jump on another bandwagon.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:18:14 GMT -5
Fair enough, lianne. Apologies for grouping you in there.
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Post by kagemoto on May 11, 2012 10:18:41 GMT -5
Now, talking about Pleonast history of claiming town early... I want to know a bit more about his "habit". Since there are other players pointing out that this is the first time Pleonast claims a Power Role, his strategy in this game shows in fact a CHANGE of his habit (claiming Town only but does not claim a power/powerless role).
So, in all those previous games where Pleonast claimed Town early, what were the outcomes of his real team/roles?
If he is ALWAYS Town or if he is ALWAYS Scum when he claims Town early (and no claim to power/powerless roles), this is an alarm.
If the result is mixed (in some of the games he is Town and in some others he is Scum), are there any old games in which Pleonast is a Town Power Role but claims Town but not the power?
Past performance is not an indication to future commitment, I agree. But if there are players talking about the past performance, I want to know some more details about it.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:19:10 GMT -5
That being said, bandwagons are a necessary feature for Town's success. All of us scattering our votes on a dozen different candidates is going to allow the Scum to control the lynch more than would be good for us.
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Post by CatInASuit on May 11, 2012 10:20:15 GMT -5
As for waiting several days before looking at Pleo again, what harm would it do? This game has multiple scum (probably ~15, if the distribution is the way it normally is). Focusing on Pleo will not win us the game. Look, it's like this. Let's say we wait until, I dunno, Day Four (a number that I pulled out of the air the first time) to look at Pleo again. Here are the possible outcomes: (1) Pleo is a Town Power Role. He either gets killed by the scum right off the bat (which is why claiming this early would be a bad idea), or he's able to survive multiple nights to use his power for the Town. Pro-Town result. (2) Pleo is a Townie with no powers. He forces the Scum to decide whether he's telling the truth about him, and energy wasted by the Scum on Pleo is energy that the Scum isn't expending finding the OTHER power roles. If he gets killed by the Scum, that's awesome (see my post about how one of the primary goals for a vanilla townsperson is getting killed by the Scum). If he doesn't get killed by the Scum, we can look at him again on Day Four. So either Pro-Town result (he gets killed by Scum) or neutral result (we wait until Day Four and he gets mislynched or whatever then). Keep in mind, too, that probabilistically this is the most likely scenario. There are almost certainly many more Vanilla Townspeople in this game than any other role, including Scum.(3) Pleo is a Scum with no powers. This is unlikely, to begin with, since ~75 percent or thereabouts of the player pool is Town. But even if Pleo is a vanilla Scum, there are almost certainly more than a dozen other Scum in the game. Waiting until Day Four to resolve Pleo does not preclude us from being able to lynch other Scum on Days One through Three (and gain information from those lynches, even if they're mislynches, in a way we can't with Pleo, since people have such an easy, lazy excuse to jump on the Pleo bandwagon.) Neutral to, at worst, slightly anti-Town outcome if he's actually Scum (which, again, he probably isn't). (4) Pleo is a Scum with Powers. First of all, we don't even know if they exist. Second of all, if they do exist, they are certainly the role that comprises the smallest percentage of the player pool, so Pleo being a powered Scum is easily the least likely outcome of these four. Nevertheless, on the miniscule chance that Pleo is, say, a Scum Detective or Scum Doctor, it would obviously be bad to let him live multiple days. This, then, is the worst case scenario. But the likelihood of his outcome is so small compared to (1), (2), or (3), that lynching Pleo now JUST IN CASE he's a powered Scum makes no sense at all. You might as well lynch me now JUST IN CASE I'm a powered Scum, too. You're shooting blindly in the dark. Tell me specifically what you disagree with about this, kagemoto. Also Meeko. Also CatInASuit. And I would still very much like to hear from Bill. If Pleonast was a town vanilla - why not just claim town vanilla. Why screw around with everyone else with a false claim. You have said that it was a dumb move several times and I agree wholeheartedly with that. But then I can't turn around and say that if Pleonast has claimed vanilla before it would be the same again this time.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 11, 2012 10:23:06 GMT -5
Actually, on second thought, I think I'll start subbing in people one at a time...starting with those two who haven't even opened their PMs yet. I doubt more and more they are going to play at all.
So I'm going to look for subs for MelissaShort, Adorasaurous, and Bec as soon as I can.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:28:14 GMT -5
Now, talking about Pleonast history of claiming town early... I want to know a bit more about his "habit". Since there are other players pointing out that this is the first time Pleonast claims a Power Role, his strategy in this game shows in fact a CHANGE of his habit (claiming Town only but does not claim a power/powerless role). So, in all those previous games where Pleonast claimed Town early, what were the outcomes of his real team/roles? If he is ALWAYS Town or if he is ALWAYS Scum when he claims Town early (and no claim to power/powerless roles), this is an alarm. If the result is mixed (in some of the games he is Town and in some others he is Scum), are there any old games in which Pleonast is a Town Power Role but claims Town but not the power? Past performance is not an indication to future commitment, I agree. But if there are players talking about the past performance, I want to know some more details about it. I don't have much experience with Pleonast, so someone else will have to give details about that. It's my understanding that him claiming power role is a null tell (or effectively "role neutral," in my parlance), and that's what I've been basing my analysis on.
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Post by kagemoto on May 11, 2012 10:28:39 GMT -5
The thing I think is funny, too, is that people keep saying, "well, I don't know who to vote for; you're not giving any alternatives." First of all, it shouldn't be incumbent on me to provide alternatives; everyone should be able to figure out who they think is scummiest -- ideally out of the people who are currently the most likely candidates for lynch -- and express those thoughts themselves. Second, I keep bringing up starrirain and her sketchy post followed by her complete disappearance, and yet for some reason that wagon isn't gaining any further traction at all, and I'm scolded for focusing on one person. You can't have it both ways, guys. First of all, questioning any part of your theories does not equal to questioning ALL of your theories. If I specifically points out that I disagree with you in theory A, and you want me to comment on all the theories B, C, D, E, F..., I think it is overly defensive. Now, for the starrirain bandwagon, I guess it does not gain any further traction because you are overdoing it early in Day 1. A Real Life thing pops up and I will come back later explaining this, if necessary.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:29:38 GMT -5
Tell me specifically what you disagree with about this, kagemoto. Also Meeko. Also CatInASuit. And I would still very much like to hear from Bill. If Pleonast was a town vanilla - why not just claim town vanilla. Why screw around with everyone else with a false claim. You have said that it was a dumb move several times and I agree wholeheartedly with that. But then I can't turn around and say that if Pleonast has claimed vanilla before it would be the same again this time. I can't presume to say why Pleo did it, CIAS, but HAVING done it, I'm saying that he could have done it as Vanilla Town, and that -- in my very strong opinion -- he's screwing with Scum more than he's screwing with Town here. For the reasons I state in #2 in that post.
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Meeko
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I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
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Post by Meeko on May 11, 2012 10:29:42 GMT -5
Gad, can you assume for two seconds that Pleonast is lying?
What better play would he need than this? I doubt you would vote for him for the remainder of this game. God forbid if everyone had the same attitude here.
You are blindly accepting his claim, and asking me why I am not as blind as you are.
And Pleonast could be town....... well I'll probably get lynched for my objections to you. I was basically already go Me for this game to begin with, so meh.
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Post by LightFoot on May 11, 2012 10:32:39 GMT -5
My thoughts on pleonast
It’s an unconventional way to play, and I was unhappy with pleo the first time I witnessed it.
It certainly gets the ball rolling on what is generally a slow D1. But making pleo the ‘star attraction’ on D1 in counter productive.
And I think that meeko added much more fuel to that fire than pleo has.
pleo claimed ( as suspected) with little fan-fare and is continuing to play the game.
The fireworks came from meeko . IF meeko is Scum, what a great way to keep heat off any new players finding themselves in Scum clothing?
Using my glasses it would seem meeko is more likely the Scum – if either one of them is.
Now the two of them are playing ping pong with the lynch lead and very little is going on with the other names on the list of voted players. Digging deeper into that pile will give us more intel for future Days.
If pleo is lying, we’ll catch him. If he’s telling the truth, we don’t want him dead this Day.
If I’m reading it right, Gaderine has said basically the same thing. I’ve put it in my voice to see if that changes anyone’s perspective.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:32:57 GMT -5
The thing I think is funny, too, is that people keep saying, "well, I don't know who to vote for; you're not giving any alternatives." First of all, it shouldn't be incumbent on me to provide alternatives; everyone should be able to figure out who they think is scummiest -- ideally out of the people who are currently the most likely candidates for lynch -- and express those thoughts themselves. Second, I keep bringing up starrirain and her sketchy post followed by her complete disappearance, and yet for some reason that wagon isn't gaining any further traction at all, and I'm scolded for focusing on one person. You can't have it both ways, guys. First of all, questioning any part of your theories does not equal to questioning ALL of your theories. If I specifically points out that I disagree with you in theory A, and you want me to comment on all the theories B, C, D, E, F..., I think it is overly defensive. Now, for the starrirain bandwagon, I guess it does not gain any further traction because you are overdoing it early in Day 1. A Real Life thing pops up and I will come back later explaining this, if necessary. Sigh...overdoing it on Day One? I'm trying to help my team not make dumb mistakes! A starrirain lynch is low-risk and I think she has a greater than random chance of being scum. A Pleonast lynch is high-risk and I think he has an equal to random chance of being scum (that is, no more than ~25 percent). How am I "overdoing" it? Someone has to be lynched today. I'm strongly opposed to Pleo and, by and large, Meeko getting lynched. (I think Meeko has a greater than random chance of being Town.) Put yourself in my shoes. How would you go about trying to get someone YOU THINK IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SCUM lynched? How am I overdoing it? I didn't even start exhorting people on the starrirain bandwagon until people started giving me shit for opposing Pleo's wagon without offering any viable alternatives, and then I offer starrirain as an alternative and now I'm "overdoing" it? That's ridiculous.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:36:35 GMT -5
Gad, can you assume for two seconds that Pleonast is lying? What better play would he need than this? I doubt you would vote for him for the remainder of this game. God forbid if everyone had the same attitude here. You are blindly accepting his claim, and asking me why I am not as blind as you are. And Pleonast could be town....... well I'll probably get lynched for my objections to you. I was basically already go Me for this game to begin with, so meh. I am not blindly accepting his claim. At this point I don't even know why I'm bothering to respond to you, because I've explained why I'm not blindly accepting his claim multiple times now, and you're just passing right over it. Oh, and saying that I would never vote for him for the remainder of the game? That's total bullshit. I've already said he should be revisited on a later day. Meeko. I don't think you're reading what I'm saying, because you're attributing to me positions that ARE EXPLICITLY CONTRADICTORY TO WHAT I'VE ACTUALLY SAID. Again: I am not accepting Pleo's claim. I am not accepting that he's Town. I think you're more likely to be Town than he is, but that's because you have a GREATER THAN RANDOM chance of being Town in my eyes (so in my opinion, you're Town more than 75 percent of the time), while Pleo only has an EQUAL TO RANDOM chance of being Town in my eyes (so in my opinion, he's Town around 75 percent of the time). I think you're BOTH bad lynches today. Why are you not getting this?
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Post by lianne on May 11, 2012 10:37:06 GMT -5
That being said, bandwagons are a necessary feature for Town's success. All of us scattering our votes on a dozen different candidates is going to allow the Scum to control the lynch more than would be good for us. So it's starting to sound like the best ploy on Day 1 is actually to just group together to lynch any old random player because until someone has been killed we have no concrete information to go on.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:37:28 GMT -5
Now the two of them are playing ping pong with the lynch lead and very little is going on with the other names on the list of voted players. Digging deeper into that pile will give us more intel for future Days. I could not agree with this more.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:38:00 GMT -5
Now the two of them are playing ping pong with the lynch lead and very little is going on with the other names on the list of voted players. Digging deeper into that pile will give us more intel for future Days. I could not agree with this more.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:41:55 GMT -5
That being said, bandwagons are a necessary feature for Town's success. All of us scattering our votes on a dozen different candidates is going to allow the Scum to control the lynch more than would be good for us. So it's starting to sound like the best ploy on Day 1 is actually to just group together to lynch any old random player because until someone has been killed we have no concrete information to go on. Well...no. Lynching random players are bad, because it's valuable to get people to justify their votes on why they think someone should be lynched. That generates information that we could use, both later and on that same day (like if someone has a reason for voting a particular person that just sounds manufactured and phony, it could lead to a new bandwagon on that person for being scummy). Also, since most of us are Town, we can actually band together and try to figure out who has been scummiest so far, and consolidate our votes on two or three people in that manner. We're definitely shooting in the dark more on Day One than on any subsequent days, but we're not completely blind. I've known many Towns to successfully identify a Scum on Day One, and in any event the discussion generated by the various bandwagons is very, very helpful even if we ultimately end up mislynching someone. Does that make sense?
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Post by lianne on May 11, 2012 10:43:25 GMT -5
Now the two of them are playing ping pong with the lynch lead and very little is going on with the other names on the list of voted players. Digging deeper into that pile will give us more intel for future Days. I could not agree with this more. Totally agree. It seems to me they are at the least both worth hanging on to for now and we should be moving on to discuss other people.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 11, 2012 10:44:43 GMT -5
Just my opinion: A LOT of new players (the PackRatters) are impressing me with how fast they're learning the game and picking up on it/playing well.
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Post by LightFoot on May 11, 2012 10:45:11 GMT -5
That being said, bandwagons are a necessary feature for Town's success. All of us scattering our votes on a dozen different candidates is going to allow the Scum to control the lynch more than would be good for us. So it's starting to sound like the best ploy on Day 1 is actually to just group together to lynch any old random player because until someone has been killed we have no concrete information to go on. Some players insist you must pick a wagon. Some players insist you should always vote who you think is Scum My reality is there are times* when either is acceptable. Vote where you want your vote to be for the record. *(ie: in a recent game I had to vote a wagon to prevent a mason partner from being lynched- I didn’t think I was voting Scum but had to save my partner) Different boards have different absolutes and we have a cross section of players from other places in this game.
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Post by special on May 11, 2012 10:45:22 GMT -5
Or we can just lynch Pleonast and I'll shut up, because obviously nobody wants to hear from the guy who's played, like, seventy+ Mafia games of varying complexity in the last year over on a poker forum WHERE EVERYBODY KNOWS GAME THEORY AND HAS SOLVED THIS SHIT, LIKE, MATHEMATICALLY AND STUFF. Just ignore me; I'll be in the corner pounding my head against the wall. That's it, I'm calling you off. you can not have another glass, Pleonast is not a good vintage for you. Here, have this cranberry juice instead. Seriously Gad, you've just gone and confirmed Pleonast here, and you know that there is no way to know for certain that Pleonast is town. Or that you are town. Which of the following has Gad done? 1. Confirmed Pleonast as Town 2. Stated that Pleonast is Town. 3. Stated that mathematicaly there is a probablity that Pleonast is not Scum. I'll give you a hint, it's not 1 or 2. Gad wants us to focus on issues other than Pleonast's claim. Pleonast has stated that he wants us to focus on things other than his claim. I beleive we should focus on things other than his claim. It makes sense. Pleonast's claim give us no indication if he is Town or Scum. None whatsoever. He could be either. He could be either if he hadn't claimed as well. Many of us dislike his strategy, but it is not an indication of his alignment. Can we please just ignore his claim and look for Scum.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:47:17 GMT -5
Just my opinion: A LOT of new players (the PackRatters) are impressing me with how fast they're learning the game and picking up on it/playing well. I agree with this.
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Post by special on May 11, 2012 10:47:27 GMT -5
Sigh. kagemoto, please refer to my post where I go through the four possibilities of Pleonast's role (in which vanilla Town is the most likely, and scum power role is the least likely, just as a pure matter of combinatorics and probability) and examine the potential consequences of waiting until Day Four to do anything about him. Please go get that post, quote it, and respond to its substance. Please. I do not know why I should get that post, as I did not misquote you. I made it very clear that I disagree your theory that it is SMARTER for a Vanilla Town to claim Power Role early in the game, and that's about it. It is possible that a Vanilla Town would claim a Power Role early in the game, and I have seen it before. And yes, I do agree with you that it is possible Pleonast can be a Town Vanilla. I just don't agree with you that the early false claim is a smart act, as I do not see the benefit of a Day 0 false claim. I beleivbe Gad meant thait is smarter for Vanilla Town to claim a Power Role than it is for a Power role to claim a power role. And, to take it one step further, it's smarter to not claim anything at all.
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Post by lianne on May 11, 2012 10:48:13 GMT -5
So it's starting to sound like the best ploy on Day 1 is actually to just group together to lynch any old random player because until someone has been killed we have no concrete information to go on. Well...no. Lynching random players are bad, because it's valuable to get people to justify their votes on why they think someone should be lynched. That generates information that we could use, both later and on that same day (like if someone has a reason for voting a particular person that just sounds manufactured and phony, it could lead to a new bandwagon on that person for being scummy). Also, since most of us are Town, we can actually band together and try to figure out who has been scummiest so far, and consolidate our votes on two or three people in that manner. We're definitely shooting in the dark more on Day One than on any subsequent days, but we're not completely blind. I've known many Towns to successfully identify a Scum on Day One, and in any event the discussion generated by the various bandwagons is very, very helpful even if we ultimately end up mislynching someone. Does that make sense? Sorry I keep being a post behind you! Yes I guess anyone saying anything is information and newbies in particular are quite likely to be giving away more than they realise.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:48:53 GMT -5
Thanks, Ed. I appreciate that.
In a little while I'll try to go through the thread and do my best to identify four or five people in addition to starrirain who I think have a greater than random chance of being scum.
If I die toNight, and I sort of expect to, than I hope that people look back at my post and give the people I name a little extra scrutiny.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:49:26 GMT -5
I do not know why I should get that post, as I did not misquote you. I made it very clear that I disagree your theory that it is SMARTER for a Vanilla Town to claim Power Role early in the game, and that's about it. It is possible that a Vanilla Town would claim a Power Role early in the game, and I have seen it before. And yes, I do agree with you that it is possible Pleonast can be a Town Vanilla. I just don't agree with you that the early false claim is a smart act, as I do not see the benefit of a Day 0 false claim. I beleivbe Gad meant thait is smarter for Vanilla Town to claim a Power Role than it is for a Power role to claim a power role. And, to take it one step further, it's smarter to not claim anything at all. Absolutely right.
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Post by special on May 11, 2012 10:50:52 GMT -5
Gad, can you assume for two seconds that Pleonast is lying? What better play would he need than this? I doubt you would vote for him for the remainder of this game. God forbid if everyone had the same attitude here. You are blindly accepting his claim, and asking me why I am not as blind as you are. And Pleonast could be town....... well I'll probably get lynched for my objections to you. I was basically already go Me for this game to begin with, so meh. Your logic fails. Just beause Gad wants us to ignore the claim for now, doesn't mean he believes Pleo. I'm not sure where you make that leap. I am in complete agreement with gad on this point. We should just ignore Pleo's claim.
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