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Post by special on May 11, 2012 10:53:30 GMT -5
Now the two of them are playing ping pong with the lynch lead and very little is going on with the other names on the list of voted players. Digging deeper into that pile will give us more intel for future Days. I could not agree with this more. Looks like you agree with this twice as much
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 10:56:08 GMT -5
I could not agree with this more. Looks like you agree with this twice as much Stupid math, always thwarting me.
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Post by lianne on May 11, 2012 11:00:52 GMT -5
So it's starting to sound like the best ploy on Day 1 is actually to just group together to lynch any old random player because until someone has been killed we have no concrete information to go on. Some players insist you must pick a wagon. Some players insist you should always vote who you think is Scum My reality is there are times* when either is acceptable. Vote where you want your vote to be for the record. *(ie: in a recent game I had to vote a wagon to prevent a mason partner from being lynched- I didn’t think I was voting Scum but had to save my partner) Different boards have different absolutes and we have a cross section of players from other places in this game. My point really was that there was little choice on Day 1 other than banding together. It's just how to know who to go for at this early a stage in the game. I think by being more vocal than others, both Pleonast and Meeko have made themselves obvious targets but in reality they both have a lot to contribute to the game and we should be looking elsewhere.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 11, 2012 11:13:45 GMT -5
THIS JUST IN:
Mistde is replacing MelissaShort (who is one of three people I've noticed never even opened their PM yet).
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 11:15:07 GMT -5
Welcome, Mistde!
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Post by Inner Stickler on May 11, 2012 11:28:10 GMT -5
My recollection is that when Pleo has claimed something off the bat like this, he's always been correct. If he claims he's a power role, he's a power role, if he claims he's town, he's town. He may be more than what he claims but he always is at least what he claims.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 11:34:21 GMT -5
My recollection is that when Pleo has claimed something off the bat like this, he's always been correct. If he claims he's a power role, he's a power role, if he claims he's town, he's town. He may be more than what he claims but he always is at least what he claims. And (as I've already said) if this is true, Pleo should never have claimed, because claiming a power role when you're a power role so early is a facially terrible idea. But let's at least force the Scum to use a nightkill on him, rather than doing their job for them.
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Post by lauriern on May 11, 2012 11:35:13 GMT -5
....... well I'll probably get lynched for my objections to you. Meeko, First, I want to Thank you for posting posts of Action instead of posts of REaction. Reading your earlier posts was like you offering $100 bills, but putting them in 10 feet of shit to get to them. For me, it was never about your objections. It was about how you presented them. Seeing your most recent, calmer posts I went back and read your earlier posts. You have some good points in them. Still, I'm not necessarily convinced Pleo is Scum, but he is on my radar along with a few others. You, on the other hand, are tougher for me to figure out. I still think you may be Scum because you tried so hard to throw another player into the Scum pool so quickly, detracting the attention from yourself. However, after reading everyone's posts that followed all the drama, I'm wondering if it is simply a case of hard feelings from you towards Pleo and that was your motivation for trying to get him out of the game so quickly. Hmmmmm...lots to think about..... For now, my vote continues to be for Meeko, but there is plenty of time to change my mind.
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Post by special on May 11, 2012 11:43:35 GMT -5
Can people at least comment on the case against starirain?
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Post by lauriern on May 11, 2012 11:47:24 GMT -5
Can people at least comment on the case against starirain? This is one of the people on my radar screen for the same reasons you gave.
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Post by jmj697mn on May 11, 2012 11:51:47 GMT -5
My recollection is that when Pleo has claimed something off the bat like this, he's always been correct. If he claims he's a power role, he's a power role, if he claims he's town, he's town. He may be more than what he claims but he always is at least what he claims. If you know this, then Pleo must certainly know this. Perhaps he is pretending to do as he has always done to throw everyone off, especially the n00bs who wouldn't know what he's done in the past. Let me just say, I am NOT on the Pleo bandwagon. I voted for Texcat, only because she jumped down my throat immediately. I know that isn't the best reason to vote for someone & my vote will be changing soon. I'm just not entirely sure yet who to vote for. Gad, I find myself agreeing with what you say about starrirain.
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Post by LightFoot on May 11, 2012 12:09:08 GMT -5
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Post by LightFoot on May 11, 2012 12:23:05 GMT -5
The bear kept eating my preview. Disregard links above and try these Can people at least comment on the case against starirain? you started it The other two that hold water for me are: for cassipietz and for michelehunter ( but that's just my take)
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Post by Inner Stickler on May 11, 2012 12:40:56 GMT -5
Meh. While I am disappointed in starirain's lack of content, I don't really find the post in question all that scummy. Especially since, mathematically, starirain, as well as the rest of us are seeing sneaky scum in here. We may not recognize it as such but they're there.
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Post by lianne on May 11, 2012 12:51:29 GMT -5
I think we are clutching at straws here but the problem is that that is all we have to clutch at.
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Post by wombat99 on May 11, 2012 12:54:30 GMT -5
Can people at least comment on the case against starirain? Starrirain doesn't ping me as much as dizzymrslizzy does, but I'll consider jumping on the starrirain bandwagon to prevent a pleonast lynch (i agree that's a bad move). But is there any traction to the idea that the Starrirain voters are scum who are ganging up on her to deflect attention from other scum?
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Post by special on May 11, 2012 13:08:31 GMT -5
But is there any traction to the idea that the Starrirain voters are scum who are ganging up on her to deflect attention from other scum? I haven't seen any. Are you hypothosizing that both Meeko and Pleo are Scum and others (I think there are three of us) are trying to divert attention over to starirain?
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Post by wombat99 on May 11, 2012 13:20:51 GMT -5
But is there any traction to the idea that the Starrirain voters are scum who are ganging up on her to deflect attention from other scum? I haven't seen any. Are you hypothosizing that both Meeko and Pleo are Scum and others (I think there are three of us) are trying to divert attention over to starirain? That was my thought, yes.
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Post by kagemoto on May 11, 2012 13:27:23 GMT -5
First of all, questioning any part of your theories does not equal to questioning ALL of your theories. If I specifically points out that I disagree with you in theory A, and you want me to comment on all the theories B, C, D, E, F..., I think it is overly defensive. Now, for the starrirain bandwagon, I guess it does not gain any further traction because you are overdoing it early in Day 1. A Real Life thing pops up and I will come back later explaining this, if necessary. Sigh...overdoing it on Day One? I'm trying to help my team not make dumb mistakes! A starrirain lynch is low-risk and I think she has a greater than random chance of being scum. A Pleonast lynch is high-risk and I think he has an equal to random chance of being scum (that is, no more than ~25 percent). How am I "overdoing" it? Someone has to be lynched today. I'm strongly opposed to Pleo and, by and large, Meeko getting lynched. (I think Meeko has a greater than random chance of being Town.) Put yourself in my shoes. How would you go about trying to get someone YOU THINK IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SCUM lynched? How am I overdoing it? I didn't even start exhorting people on the starrirain bandwagon until people started giving me shit for opposing Pleo's wagon without offering any viable alternatives, and then I offer starrirain as an alternative and now I'm "overdoing" it? That's ridiculous. First of all, I agree that a starrirain lynch is low-risk lynch (or a lower-risker one than a Pleonast). However, I should add that it is a low-risk lynch at the moment. We still have about 40 hours in Day 1, and if starrirain shows up later in Day 1 and provides information we do not have now, the whole starrirain bandwagon may look like a joke. Which is why I think you are overdoing it. Or more specifically, you are overdoing it early in Day 1. To be fair, I do not disagree that providing a starrirain bandwagon as a viable alternative may work well in Day 1. However, is starrirain the only viable alternative? I think not. I am currently voting for a person ( cassiepietz) who post only once saying that she is confused, and then put down a vote without any reason, and then disappear. The cases of cassiepietz and starrirain are not exactly the same, but are similar. And in the next 40 hours or so of Day 1, we may have more options. Now, I agree that if we have to choose a low-risk lynch in Day 1, we can only choose 1 bandwagon, not 2 or 3. What you have done is to choose starrirain as THE low-risk bandwagon, regardless of the existence of other options. I would like to wait for a while to see if cassiepietz or someone else is a better bandwagon. Lastly, I don't think I have given you any "shit" in your opposing the Pleonast bandwagon. If you haven't realized it, I am also one of the other players who oppose the Pleonast bandwagon in Day 1. For all the theories you have made, I disagree with you in part and agree with you in some other parts. If you think it is ridiculous, it is ok, I'm fine with it.
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Post by special on May 11, 2012 13:33:59 GMT -5
cassiepietz and starirain are qute different.
The case against starirain is because she made a post that I thought would be something a newer Scum player might make.
Cassiepietz has just not posted much of anything at all, which is more of a null tell for me. Perhaps you have a better reason why a Scum wouldn't post muh?
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Post by Pleonast on May 11, 2012 13:39:33 GMT -5
No vanilla town should be claiming a power role as it is really bad play. I disagree. Getting Night-killed by scum is an excellent way for a vanilla townie to help out. And claiming to have a power is an excellent way to accomplish that. Yes, there's a risk that a false claim will result in a mislynch, but vanilla town are often mislynched, so the incremental risk is small. You are conflating a role claim forced by lynch pressure (like Meeko's) with an unforced claim (like Pleonast's). Forced claims are much more likely to be false, because there's a clear benefit to make a false claim when under lynch pressure. An unforced claim is less likely to be false, because the benefits of such are not clear (hence the debate about my claim). My town claim is implicit. I don't usually bother to make it explicit--everyone claims to be town, so a town claim is unsubstantive. If it makes you feel better, I can make it explicit: I am a town power role.Or we can just lynch Pleonast and I'll shut up, because obviously nobody wants to hear from the guy who's played, like, seventy+ Mafia games of varying complexity in the last year over on a poker forum WHERE EVERYBODY KNOWS GAME THEORY AND HAS SOLVED THIS SHIT, LIKE, MATHEMATICALLY AND STUFF. You may disagree agree with my assessment of risk vs reward, but we agree on the basis of my decision to make an early unforced claim. Now, talking about Pleonast history of claiming town early... I want to know a bit more about his "habit". Since there are other players pointing out that this is the first time Pleonast claims a Power Role, his strategy in this game shows in fact a CHANGE of his habit (claiming Town only but does not claim a power/powerless role). We did have a wiki with records and such from our games, but it seems to be down. Which is just as well, because the sort of meta-gaming you're attempting will lead you down a false path. I play each game independently. My decision to claim or not and what to claim if I do is made each game independently. For simply games (like this, but not Arkham) I typically make the decision before I even know my role; it's based on the rules set. That there may be a pattern would you give you insight into how much I weigh risk vs reward, but not much else. And I will freely tell you how much I weigh those: I give risk little weight and reward a lot. Bottom line: judge a game by itself. My recollection is that when Pleo has claimed something off the bat like this, he's always been correct. If he claims he's a power role, he's a power role, if he claims he's town, he's town. He may be more than what he claims but he always is at least what he claims. And (as I've already said) if this is true, Pleo should never have claimed, because claiming a power role when you're a power role so early is a facially terrible idea. But let's at least force the Scum to use a nightkill on him, rather than doing their job for them. No, not in the face! It's a bad idea unless I can self-protect and make scum waste their kill. Or if I bluff them into not trying to kill me and I can get a bunch of investigations. Don't ignore the possible benefits simply because you see the risks. And once you acknowledge that there are both potential rewards as well as potential risks, you should realize that the importance of reward vs risk is highly subjective. Don't be surprised if someone makes a different value judgement than you. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Okay, I've skimmed up to the current post. I hope I didn't miss anything important. I won't be online this weekend, and I don't know how much I'll be on this afternoon, so I am going to preemptively move my vote to defense: unvote CatInASuitvote starrirainbecause I know I am a power role and more valuable than an unclaimed player with a reasonable case against them. However, for the record, I think both CatInASuit and BillMc are better lynches than starrirain. Meeko is just below the threshold of someone I think should be lynched.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 13:39:36 GMT -5
I think we have significantly less than 40 hours left in the day, but I welcome correction.
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Post by kagemoto on May 11, 2012 13:41:22 GMT -5
Guys,
I had a little accident and now I am heading to the hospital. The injury looks really bad as I suspect that I have a torn ligament or a dislocation or something like that, but otherwise I am ok. Don't worry. Just not sure if I will be available for today and tomorrow. I have voted and I think I have voiced what I have thought so far, so I guess it should be ok if I can't be back for the rest of the Day 1.
Have fun.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 13:42:10 GMT -5
DAY WILL BE ENDING IN ABOUT 46 HOURSWith the current votes, Pleonast will be the one lynched. This was yesterday at around midnight, so almost 13 hours ago. 33 hours left in the day.
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 13:42:56 GMT -5
Guys, I had a little accident and now I am heading to the hospital. The injury looks really bad as I suspect that I have a torn ligament or a dislocation or something like that, but otherwise I am ok. Don't worry. Just not sure if I will be available for today and tomorrow. I have voted and I think I have voiced what I have thought so far, so I guess it should be ok if I can't be back for the rest of the Day 1. Have fun. Hope it's not too serious. Take care.
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Post by LightFoot on May 11, 2012 13:49:17 GMT -5
Thank you Calvin kagemoto for separating your posts for readability. You put a lot into them and it’s easy to miss a point in a flat wall of text. ( not that I agree with all of it-but atleast I can read it) ~~ back to business~~ Another player I want to take a closer look at is oldred The opening comment and vote on Ed because he’s a seasoned player And some of the subsequent posts smell ‘funny’ to me. I believe Ed already gathered the quotes I found it = here is oldred *just a smart ass * a player with some experience pretending to be naive *first time Scum feeling cocky * any combination or none
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Post by Gadarene on May 11, 2012 13:51:13 GMT -5
I can go either way on oldred. In my experience, it's slightly Townie to make multiple, quick, stream of consciousness posts like that. On the other hand, she hasn't been back since, and I agree that the vote on Ed is very shaky.
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Post by Idle Thoughts on May 11, 2012 13:52:54 GMT -5
Vote count: Pleonast - 6 votes (CatInASuit, BillMc, Meeko, cassiepietz, michelehunter, francescaj) Meeko - 5 votes (Inner Stickler, lauriern, amykb, patricia, annetastic) starirain - 5 votes (Mr Special Ed, colby11, Gadarene, septimus, Pleonast) dizzymrslizzy - 4 votes (Suburban Plankton, wombat99, Silver Jan, Paranoia) texcat - 2 votes (guiri, jmj697mn) Suburban Plankton - 2 votes (Mahaloth, texcat) Guiri - 1 vote (Susan K Murphy) Mr Special Ed - 1 vote (oldred) cassiepietz - 1 vote (kagemoto) annetastic - 1 vote (allyjayne) michelehunter - 1 vote (Lightfoot) Lauriern - 1 vote (Hal) Gadarene - 1 vote (jerelijah) Septimus - 1 vote (richardbeckman)
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Post by phoenixphyre on May 11, 2012 15:22:04 GMT -5
um hello. I just got in from work, and have a quick break before I have to go back out again...so I am checking in...and now I find there are 19 pages already. Does this mean that every day I have to go through all these pages and try and figure out who is whom? Feeling way way out in the ocean without a paddle..nor a boat!
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Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
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Post by Meeko on May 11, 2012 15:46:44 GMT -5
Just my opinion: A LOT of new players (the PackRatters) are impressing me with how fast they're learning the game and picking up on it/playing well. THIS.
Not sure if I said as much about that.... but THIS. Honestly I can't remember what I've said in this game [given how I've ""played"" so far.] You guys would be surprised at the amount of things I don't say. It amazes me how many things I type, and that they come out still imperfect.
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