Meeko
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I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Post by Meeko on May 9, 2012 10:20:40 GMT -5
I guess my question then becomes is it usually a lie? We don't know.Because we don't know, everything Pleonast does in this regard serves town NO purpose what so ever. I'm not going to re-hash my reasons for my vote, but I think the clarification here is warranted. Silver Jan : Past Performance is NOT and Indication of Future Results. I would suggest selling all shares of Pleonast that your protfolio currently holds. And some more bold because people hate it.
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 10:27:07 GMT -5
Is the Pleo wagon basically because he claimed a power on Night Zero? If so, I don't agree with it at all. Why do the Scum's job for them? Let them worry about whether Pleo actually has a power or not -- there are plenty of other people we can focus on instead right now. If Pleo is still alive in, like, four Days, we can talk more about him then. Put it another way: how stupid will we all feel if Pleo gets lynched on Day One and turns out to actually be a Town power role? Why would we ever knowingly put ourselves in that position? So Gaderene, care to explain why you think voting for Pleonast is doing the scum's job for them? How can you know what side Pleonast is on, as you say that the Scum should worry about it and not the town? And why should we wait several Days before looking at Pleonast again? Just curious. Um...because: (1) probabilistically, Pleonast is much more likely to be town than scum (as are we all, in a vacuum) (2) there is no reason to affirmatively disbelieve his claim (3) the Scum would like to kill Town power roles (4) if Pleo is Town, the Scum have to decide whether he's telling the truth about having a power and, if they decide that he is, what to do about it (5) since Pleo is probably Town (see #1), then by lynching Pleo we're taking that decision out of the Scum's hands. They don't have to worry about it anymore, because we're resolving Pleo for them. To be clear: I don't necessarily agree with Pleo's decision to claim a power right off the bat, whether or not he's telling the truth about it. (In fact, if he is telling the truth about it, I think it's a pretty terrible play for him to claim like that on Night Zero.) I even think that there's a chance he could be Scum. But I don't think the chance he's scum is that much more than random (that is, if approximately 25 percent of the player pool is Scum, I don't think the odds of Pleo being scum are much higher than 25 percent), and if he's Town I think it would be absolutely disastrous to lynch him on Day One, since we take the hard decision out of the Scum's hands by doing so (and if he actually is a power role, we've massively shot ourselves in the foot). There are tons of players in this game! Why would we want to lynch a claimed Town Power Role on Day One? Does that make more sense?
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 10:29:21 GMT -5
Like, seriously, if I said right now that I am a Town Detective, would your first response be that I need to get lynched?
If so, that's absolutely awful on your part, irrespective of the wisdom of my claim to begin with.
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Post by CatInASuit on May 9, 2012 10:36:17 GMT -5
Like, seriously, if I said right now that I am a Town Detective, would your first response be that I need to get lynched? If so, that's absolutely awful on your part, irrespective of the wisdom of my claim to begin with. Actually no, but then you are also not in the habit of proclaiming as such on Day 1. If he had claimed Detective, that would have been fine. Likely Night Prot from a Doc and the scum having to keep the confirmed list down and also doc hunt at the same time. See Meeko's game for a great example as to why. Doctor, Mason, AN Other not so much as they are likely to be best off in the background. Pleonast did the - Oh I'm a power role, trust me. Umm. no.
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 10:40:28 GMT -5
As for waiting several days before looking at Pleo again, what harm would it do? This game has multiple scum (probably ~15, if the distribution is the way it normally is). Focusing on Pleo will not win us the game.
Look, it's like this. Let's say we wait until, I dunno, Day Four (a number that I pulled out of the air the first time) to look at Pleo again. Here are the possible outcomes:
(1) Pleo is a Town Power Role. He either gets killed by the scum right off the bat (which is why claiming this early would be a bad idea), or he's able to survive multiple nights to use his power for the Town. Pro-Town result.
(2) Pleo is a Townie with no powers. He forces the Scum to decide whether he's telling the truth about him, and energy wasted by the Scum on Pleo is energy that the Scum isn't expending finding the OTHER power roles. If he gets killed by the Scum, that's awesome (see my post about how one of the primary goals for a vanilla townsperson is getting killed by the Scum). If he doesn't get killed by the Scum, we can look at him again on Day Four. So either Pro-Town result (he gets killed by Scum) or neutral result (we wait until Day Four and he gets mislynched or whatever then). Keep in mind, too, that probabilistically this is the most likely scenario. There are almost certainly many more Vanilla Townspeople in this game than any other role, including Scum.
(3) Pleo is a Scum with no powers. This is unlikely, to begin with, since ~75 percent or thereabouts of the player pool is Town. But even if Pleo is a vanilla Scum, there are almost certainly more than a dozen other Scum in the game. Waiting until Day Four to resolve Pleo does not preclude us from being able to lynch other Scum on Days One through Three (and gain information from those lynches, even if they're mislynches, in a way we can't with Pleo, since people have such an easy, lazy excuse to jump on the Pleo bandwagon.) Neutral to, at worst, slightly anti-Town outcome if he's actually Scum (which, again, he probably isn't).
(4) Pleo is a Scum with Powers. First of all, we don't even know if they exist. Second of all, if they do exist, they are certainly the role that comprises the smallest percentage of the player pool, so Pleo being a powered Scum is easily the least likely outcome of these four. Nevertheless, on the miniscule chance that Pleo is, say, a Scum Detective or Scum Doctor, it would obviously be bad to let him live multiple days. This, then, is the worst case scenario. But the likelihood of his outcome is so small compared to (1), (2), or (3), that lynching Pleo now JUST IN CASE he's a powered Scum makes no sense at all. You might as well lynch me now JUST IN CASE I'm a powered Scum, too. You're shooting blindly in the dark.
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 10:43:28 GMT -5
Like, seriously, if I said right now that I am a Town Detective, would your first response be that I need to get lynched? If so, that's absolutely awful on your part, irrespective of the wisdom of my claim to begin with. Actually no, but then you are also not in the habit of proclaiming as such on Day 1. If he had claimed Detective, that would have been fine. Likely Night Prot from a Doc and the scum having to keep the confirmed list down and also doc hunt at the same time. See Meeko's game for a great example as to why. Doctor, Mason, AN Other not so much as they are likely to be best off in the background. Pleonast did the - Oh I'm a power role, trust me. Umm. no. You don't need to trust him. Just ignore his claim! Play the game and try to find scum -- there are plenty of them out there. The risk/reward of lynching him today is absolutely not worth it if you're a Townie, as I've already explained in detail. And it's ridiculous to say that if he had claimed Detective, it would have been fine. How would that be any different? Just pretend that he claimed Detective, if it makes you feel better, because that's by far the most important Town role, and it's what you're risking killing off if you lynch Pleo today on the basis of his claimed power. WHY DO WE WANT TO TAKE HARD DECISIONS OUT OF THE SCUM'S HANDS AND DO THEIR JOB FOR THEM, IF PLEONAST IS PROBABLY TOWN, NUMERICALLY SPEAKING?
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Post by Susan K Murphy on May 9, 2012 10:51:12 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I would oppose a Day One guiri wagon. When he's Town, guiri is one of the very best players on this site. Since most people, mathematically, are Townspeople, I think the downside to lynching guiri early when we have so little information about anyone far outweighs the upside of the likelihood that he'll be a scum. Yes mathematically most people are town, but if like some are saying there are about 15 scum, that's a whole lot of scum out there. You could be scum too Gadarene, along with guiri, and your defending of him could be a scummy attempt to deflect my attention away from the both of you. No matter how good or bad a player he is, if he's scum he's scum and he has roused my suspicion and my vote stands for now anyway!
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Post by Pleonast on May 9, 2012 10:51:53 GMT -5
I don't see how that would violate it? Am I missing something? Many people create spreadsheets about the game during it. Here are your rules: You are not allowed to talk with anyone OFF THESE BOARDS about the game.A Google doc is off this board. 1. YOU CANNOT EDIT YOUR POSTS, so PLEASE don't do that.A Google doc is not a post, but it is editable. It's up to you how you interpret your rules, but if you allow us to communicate on websites with documents that can edited at any time, you kind of make these two rules pointless. Better check with the moderator if this violates the "you are not allowed to talk with anyone OFF THESE BOARDS about the game" rule.In other words, please post notes in the game thread instead of in an editable (which we're not allowed to do) document off this board. Pleonast, I understand the importance of following the rules in this game, but intepreting the rules in an extreme way is not following the rules. What's extreme? A Google doc is not on this board, plain and simple. You can edit your Google doc--that's how you're putting info into it. If you're a numbers guy (I like numbers, too, by the way), you should realize that numbers talk. If they didn't, why bother letting the rest of us see them? You're giving information (unless you claim your spreadsheet contains no info ) in a place that's not this forum. Try using the "pre" or the "code" tag to preserve some sort of formatting. If a player edits a wiki page to give info about this game, then yes, it would violate the rules against communicating outside this board. Because starrirain implies that s/he recognizes other scum usernames? No, because a brand new player claims to already see some indication of Scumminess and then asks a 'noob' question Why didn't you explain your reasoning when you placed your vote? My read of starrirain's post was meaningless fluff. And my read of your vote was pointless vote. But now that you've explained your vote, it seems like a reasonable insight. For new players, this is a good example of why you should tell us your thoughts when you make a vote. It's your opportunity to influence others. Vote Pleonast I am confused as why if you are town and have any special powers you would reveal it and make yourself a target? I tried to explain in the same post I made the claim, but I can explain more if you like. If I am a Doctor, I can protect a player (even myself) from being killed by scum. That means that if I protect myself and the scum try to kill me, they fail. They would waste their kill for that Night. So if I can taunt them into targeting me, we gain. Of course, scum know all that, so by claiming Doctor, they'll never target me. But if I'm actually a Detective, never being targeted by scum is very good for us. Thus, by bluffing scum into thinking I'm a Doctor, I can investigate without getting killed and then reveal a bunch of results in three or four Days. Of course, scum know all that too, so maybe they will target me after all. Which plays right into my hands if I'm really a Doctor. Now go watch the scene in The Princess Bride with Vincini and the Man in Black. This gambit is simply my way of playing a little mind game with scum. It's risky, but if scum choose poorly, I can maximize the usefulness of my power.
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 10:54:45 GMT -5
Pleo, if you had a power, it would have been much better for you not to bring yourself to the scum's attention to begin with.
In my opinion.
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 10:58:56 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I would oppose a Day One guiri wagon. When he's Town, guiri is one of the very best players on this site. Since most people, mathematically, are Townspeople, I think the downside to lynching guiri early when we have so little information about anyone far outweighs the upside of the likelihood that he'll be a scum. Yes mathematically most people are town, but if like some are saying there are about 15 scum, that's a whole lot of scum out there. You could be scum too Gadarene, along with guiri, and your defending of him could be a scummy attempt to deflect my attention away from the both of you. No matter how good or bad a player he is, if he's scum he's scum and he has roused my suspicion and my vote stands for now anyway! This is what I mean by reflexive suspicion. I don't think it's good for us. Let's say there were a thousand players, and a hundred of them were scum. On the one hand: one hundred scum! That's a whole lot! On the other hand: that means there are NINE HUNDRED townspeople. Any given person under that scenario has to start from the baseline of being town NINETY PERCENT od the time. So the absolute numbers of scum isn't what's important -- it's the number of scum relative to the number of town. As for your suspicion of guiri, knock yourself out. I have no special information about him, so he's just as likely to be scum as anyone else (which is to say, not very likely). I'm just articulating why a guiri wagon on Day One is going to be very, very, very bad for the town the vast majority of the time, and I don't think the risk is worth the slim chance of the reward. Look, most of the time we will end up lynching a Townie on Day One. That's just how the numbers work, given the lack of information that we start with. I just want to minimize the negative impact of the mislynch, and maximize the amount of information we get from the wagons that we can use later.
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Post by kagemoto on May 9, 2012 11:05:54 GMT -5
Snipped. Like, seriously, if I said right now that I am a Town Detective, would your first response be that I need to get lynched? If so, that's absolutely awful on your part, irrespective of the wisdom of my claim to begin with. Actually no, but then you are also not in the habit of proclaiming as such on Day 1. For the "habit" theory, I think the best response is from D1#180 by Meeko, who also voted Pleonast. Snipped quote: Silver Jan : Past Performance is NOT and Indication of Future Results. I would suggest selling all shares of Pleonast that your protfolio currently holds. And check back CatInasuit's vote on D1#149: (snipped quote and bolding) My vote was initially for fun and to kick things off, as I was expecting Pleonast to claim town. I didn't actually see the Day 0 claim until guiri pointed out. However the claim was power role, not town, and just claiming a power role actually pings me regardless of what others may think. It is quite obvious that at the time of CatInasuit's vote, it was based solely on the claimed habit of Pleonast (well, maybe it was placed jokingly in part, but as Meeko pointed out earlier I am senseless of humor). There are other players raising the same habit and voted Pleonast, but only CatInasuit's vote was an early Day 1 vote without realizing the town power role claim existed. Metagaming (which means using out-of-game information or resources to affect one's in-game decisions) exists and is common in mafia games, but a vote purely based on metagaming is suspicious.
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Post by wombat99 on May 9, 2012 11:08:35 GMT -5
... I'm wondering if most of the newbies are town, and more of the scum and power roles went to experienced players since they know what they're doing. This is probably an honest innocent reaction by a newbie "vanilla" Townie. ("vanilla" = has no special Power). But it's also something a newbie Scum might be tempted to write, hoping to look Townish. This seems very intelligent and experienced for a newbie. Ah - you can unvote. That makes sense now. Playing newbie card again. @ wombat99 - have you played mafia before, with different mechanics? I suspect wombat99 is an earnest, intelligent, innocent newbie. But even weak suspicions are hard to come by on Day 1, so I'll admit to a slight pinging sensation: Vote: wombat99 [/color][/quote] I've never played before but I've known mafia games existed and thought I'd like to try one sometime. I do like strategy games. I have a very basic understanding of the way it works coming in, but the details and the nuances are new to me. So, yes, I'm an earnest, intelligent (you think I'm smart! *beam*), innocent vanilla Townie newbie. Direct your suspicious pings elsewhere
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on May 9, 2012 11:22:30 GMT -5
I cannot emphasize enough how bad an idea it is to lynch a claimed power role on Day One, even if you think that he might not be telling the truth about having a power. Me thinks you doth protest to much! Although you make some interesting points.
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Post by Pleonast on May 9, 2012 11:27:38 GMT -5
Silver Jan : Past Performance is NOT and Indication of Future Results. I would suggest selling all shares of Pleonast that your protfolio currently holds. I don't like meta-gaming, but you said something similar in the last game we were both in, and you were completely wrong there, too. You're voting for me because you don't like how I'm playing. You haven't pointed to anything to indicate why you think I'm scum in this game. You're willing to burn one of our limited mislynches to fulfill your personal prejudices. That indicates you do not have a town motivation and is why I'm voting for you now. Pleo, if you had a power, it would have been much better for you not to bring yourself to the scum's attention to begin with. In my opinion. I don't like to play cautiously for its own sake. In many games, a Doctor never succeeds in blocking a kill--as a Doctor, I'd like to maximize the impact of my power. I can do that by tricking scum into targeting me. Likewise, a Detective is only as useful as the number of investigations they make. By tricking scum into ignoring me as a Detective, I'll maximize the impact of my power. Those are the potential payoffs for the risks I'm taking. On a meta-game level, it's boring to avoid risks. Your mileage may vary, but it's my role to play, and this is how I like to play it.
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Meeko
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I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Post by Meeko on May 9, 2012 11:34:23 GMT -5
Pleonast: Did you want to tell me which of my 5 bullet points was the so called opinion towards your play style? Or did you want to keep on dodging?
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on May 9, 2012 11:34:26 GMT -5
In many games, a Doctor never succeeds in blocking a kill--as a Doctor, I'd like to maximize the impact of my power. I can do that by tricking scum into targeting me. Pleonast Can you explain this? (or anyone can explain) I'm not quite understanding the Doctor roll. If the Doctor can keep people alive, how do Scum kill? Just trying to get the nuances down before Night 1 starts!
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Meeko
FGM
I raccoon it's time to play Mafia
Posts: 2,474
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Post by Meeko on May 9, 2012 11:37:20 GMT -5
Gad : You are giving Pleonast too much power in your reasoning. You are treating him more than the power role he I CLAIMING to be. This is what he wants, this is how he ""wins"" and why he persists.
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Post by Pleonast on May 9, 2012 11:43:09 GMT -5
Pleonast: Did you want to tell me which of my 5 bullet points was the so called opinion towards your play style? Or did you want to keep on dodging? Maybe my brain is failing, but I don't understand what you're asking for. You already stated your points. Are you saying weren't being earnest with all of them? How am I supposed to read your mind and decide what you really think? Pleonast Can you explain this? (or anyone can explain) I'm not quite understanding the Doctor roll. If the Doctor can keep people alive, how do Scum kill? Just trying to get the nuances down before Night 1 starts! A Doctor chooses one player each Night to protect. Scum target one player each Night to kill. If scum chose to kill a player that a Doctor has chosen to protect, the kill fails. If scum chose to kill a player that no Doctor has chosen to protect, the kill succeeds. To grossly simplify the math, there's about 60 players and so the chance of a Doctor picking the same player as scum is about 1 in 60. That's not very good. Historically, it's rare for a Doctor to successfully pick the target that scum pick, because the odds are against it.
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Post by wombat99 on May 9, 2012 11:43:59 GMT -5
In many games, a Doctor never succeeds in blocking a kill--as a Doctor, I'd like to maximize the impact of my power. I can do that by tricking scum into targeting me. Pleonast Can you explain this? (or anyone can explain) I'm not quite understanding the Doctor roll. If the Doctor can keep people alive, how do Scum kill? Just trying to get the nuances down before Night 1 starts! Vote DizzymrslizzyBecause she is very interested in when Night begins and how to kill.
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Post by lauriern on May 9, 2012 11:54:18 GMT -5
Whew! Lots going on in here with confused newbies & bad blood between a few experienced players. Reading, reading, reading posts and will cast my vote for: MeekoReason: He's trying awfully hard to make people think someone else is scum. How does anyone really know this early in the game? Me thinks he doth protest too much - me thinks he's scum
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Post by dizzymrslizzy on May 9, 2012 11:57:43 GMT -5
Thank you Pleonast. I get it now, I didn't realize the Doctor could only pick one person. Thanks for explaining.
Wombat I'm actually interested in how the Doctor works, not how to kill people. I'm frankly interested in all facets of the game. When I join something I like to know what I'm doing rather than playing half assed because $100/whale is on the line. KWIM?
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 12:06:25 GMT -5
Gad : You are giving Pleonast too much power in your reasoning. You are treating him more than the power role he I CLAIMING to be. This is what he wants, this is how he ""wins"" and why he persists. I disagree completely. If he wants to run his gambit, let him. It shouldn't suck all the air out of the room and become YOUR problem, unless you're scum. I'm not giving him any power at all. Quite the contrary. I'm saying we shouldn't worry about him right now, because the benefits to keeping him alive, for Town, far, far, FAR outweigh the benefits of lynching him.
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Post by Gadarene on May 9, 2012 12:08:03 GMT -5
In my experience, Doctors can be fairly successful in preventing the Scum kill. Often times, there are obvious candidates for protection.
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Post by AmyKay on May 9, 2012 12:10:00 GMT -5
Vote Meeko
Lauriern made a good point. too much throwing on other people = sounds like something a scum would do.
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Post by Mahaloth on May 9, 2012 12:21:16 GMT -5
I'm not giving him any power at all. Quite the contrary. I'm saying we shouldn't worry about him right now, because the benefits to keeping him alive, for Town, far, far, FAR outweigh the benefits of lynching him. I agree with this entirely. Gad is right and Pleo is a stupid lynch for D1.
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Post by wombat99 on May 9, 2012 12:26:07 GMT -5
Thank you Pleonast. I get it now, I didn't realize the Doctor could only pick one person. Thanks for explaining. Wombat I'm actually interested in how the Doctor works, not how to kill people. I'm frankly interested in all facets of the game. When I join something I like to know what I'm doing rather than playing half assed because $100/whale is on the line. KWIM? Sure. It just struck me as something that a scum might say
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Post by septimus on May 9, 2012 12:34:04 GMT -5
Thank you, Gadarene, for waking me up to what should have been obvious: The votes on Pleonast are quite anti-Town and those coming from experienced players should be viewed with much suspicion.
CIAS' vote looked like almost a joke vote. BillMc's I am unsure of; I'll go with the 3rd voter:
Unvote: wombat99 Vote: Meeko
With several Doctors and several Detectives, it would be good to avoid duplicating targets, but we don't want players to reveal their Powers, so there may be no easy way to do that. However, regarding Pleonast:
If I were a Doctor I would not protect him. (He might be a self-protecting Doc.) If I were a Detective I would not investigate him, at least not soon. (Suspicion will linger over Pleo so we can assume he will be either killed or confirmed within a few days, anyway.)
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Post by Suburban Plankton on May 9, 2012 12:34:31 GMT -5
So.... 60 players, many of whom have never played Mafia before. I think I recognize 20 names. This promises to me more !!FUN!! that normal... In this case, random.org compels me to Vote: dizzymrslizzy ] Dude, I support early votes, but why do a random one? Does this help or provide info for Town at all? I'm putting my early vote on you for this. I place that vote about 14 hours into a Day that will last (if my math is correct) 115.5 hours. In a game of this size, with this many players who are completely new to the game, I think my method of choosing Scum at that point was every bit as valid as any other. If this were midway through Day 4, things would be different.
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Post by Pleonast on May 9, 2012 12:35:17 GMT -5
Pleonast did the - Oh I'm a power role, trust me. I missed this the first time through. I've never asked anyone to "trust me", nor even implied it. In fact, my statement is explicitly ambiguous so that scum have to guess what my true intent is. That's pretty much the opposite of "trust me".
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Post by Suburban Plankton on May 9, 2012 12:35:53 GMT -5
I'm not giving him any power at all. Quite the contrary. I'm saying we shouldn't worry about him right now, because the benefits to keeping him alive, for Town, far, far, FAR outweigh the benefits of lynching him. I agree with this entirely. Gad is right and Pleo is a stupid lynch for D1. I agree that lynching Pleo just because of his claim is stupid, but that doesn't necessarily make it wrong.
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