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Day Six
Jun 29, 2008 13:40:39 GMT -5
Post by Pollux Oil on Jun 29, 2008 13:40:39 GMT -5
NAF was sitting in his room, lost in thought about the past few Days' events. So much had happened...and yet so much could still happen. Over and over again he went over his plans for the next Day...what he would do, what he would say.
When his door slammed open NAF jumped to his feet, startled. He turned, eyes widening at the figure that stood in his doorway. "No...it can't be!" he muttered. The person just stood, silently. NAF pointed his finger, raising his voice. "This is impossible!"
A smile appeared on his guest's face. "Nothing is impossible."
NAF's face turned hard, and he growled, "I'm not afraid of you. I've fought tougher than you. You're nothing." And he launched himself at the figure, fists balled and teeth bared.
The attacker spun to the side, blocking NAF's first punch and grabbing him by the neck. He slammed NAF against the wall, knocking the wind out of him.
"Don't fight, it only makes things harder." The assailant sneered as he stabbed a knife into NAF's body. NAF's eyes widened.
"NO! NO! NOOOOO!"
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The next morning, the town only found one body waiting for them. NAF was lying in a pool of blood in the town square, his eyes wide and his mouth open in a permanent scream.
Only the town was not sad to see this body, for NAF's corpse had taken the bluish tint known to be of a demon, and his wide-open eyes were completely black.
Somebody at Night had succeeded at what the town had failed to do since Day One. Another demon was dead.
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NAF1138, a Demon Lord, got his just deserts.
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Day Six begins now. Because I will be traveling and seeing a fireworks show this coming Thursday as well as I got the initial Day up late, Day Six will end at 11:59 PM EST Thursday instead of the usual time. Night Six will be a bit longer than normal as well because of the Fourth of July weekend.
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Day Six
Jun 29, 2008 13:43:08 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 29, 2008 13:43:08 GMT -5
Ahem... town, you're welcome. Roosh in particular, you're welcome.
I need to go to work now.
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Day Six
Jun 29, 2008 14:47:29 GMT -5
Post by Hawkmod on Jun 29, 2008 14:47:29 GMT -5
Ahem... town, you're welcome. Roosh in particular, you're welcome. I need to go to work now. Thanks Misterblockey. Might not stop me from voting for you, but I appreciate the effort.
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Day Six
Jun 29, 2008 15:20:56 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Jun 29, 2008 15:20:56 GMT -5
oh well. Not like I didn't know it was coming.
Good game all.
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Day Six
Jun 29, 2008 16:12:36 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Jun 29, 2008 16:12:36 GMT -5
Ahem... town, you're welcome. Roosh in particular, you're welcome. I need to go to work now. Interesting Night. If blockey is to be believed -- and he would have to have made an incredible guess otherwise -- that was my kill that took down NAF last Night. After the fiasco with BLaM yesterDay, I lost all confidence in my previous reads and decided to try a new direction. I didn't like Roosh's voting record and tried a shot in the dark. My questions now are: 1) Why did my kill fail Night 4? Did NAF block me? Was it somebody else? If anybody has an idea about this one way or the other it might be useful information. 2) Why was there only the one kill last Night? The only reasons that I can see for that is either the Demons also targeted Roosh, the Demon killer last Night was role-blocked or they were Doc-blocked. Anyway, I'm off to do an analysis of voting patterns based on the wealth of new data the last Day has turned up.
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Day Six
Jun 29, 2008 19:34:00 GMT -5
Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 29, 2008 19:34:00 GMT -5
2) Why was there only the one kill last Night? The only reasons that I can see for that is either the Demons also targeted Roosh, the Demon killer last Night was role-blocked or they were Doc-blocked. Paging Doctor Nanook! ;D Care to share if and who you used your protective abilities on last night?
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 10:00:47 GMT -5
Post by Nanook on Jun 30, 2008 10:00:47 GMT -5
I don't mind sharing. I protected no one.
Based on that, the single kill, and what Mr.B seems to be implying, it appears that Roosh is 99% confirmed as non-demon. He could still be a PFK horseman, but at least he isn't a demon.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 11:03:38 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 30, 2008 11:03:38 GMT -5
actually my ability fails entirely on horsemen.
and yes, I targeted roosh and NAF last night to be perfectly straightforward with it.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 11:36:43 GMT -5
Post by RoOsh on Jun 30, 2008 11:36:43 GMT -5
well then I guess I should be thanking you Mr. Blockey ....
But right now, I've unfortunately got to steam some carpets, but I'll be back later in the Day.
I think we need to see now the NAF, Hockey, and Hockey Dude Connection, but I'll get to that later, but yes- Thanks Blocky then.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 11:43:25 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Jun 30, 2008 11:43:25 GMT -5
I've been going through the previous days, looking at vote counts at interesting times. I'm still just collecting the data, but this post from storyteller jumped out at me and I had to share: Guess what Day this is from. Yep, Day Four, the Day we lynched Kison.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 16:57:50 GMT -5
Post by Mister Blockey on Jun 30, 2008 16:57:50 GMT -5
Haloooooooo? Anybody out there?
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 17:45:08 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jun 30, 2008 17:45:08 GMT -5
I'm here. Going to reread what I can get through. Of course, maybe I should just keep quiet, since I'm Always Wrong.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 17:47:38 GMT -5
Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 30, 2008 17:47:38 GMT -5
Quiet in here.
Here I was hopping on this morning hoping to have some discussion to join in with.
So, to sum up.
Our Vig Rysto targeted Roosh but thanks to our resident Bus driving horseman redirected to NAF, who turned out to be a demon. ;D
No scum kill occurred, and Nanook did not protect anyone, so either A) we have a so far unclaimed town roleblocker, in which case I think it is time to claim and tell us who you blocked last night - because that person is a demon, and makes for an easy lynch decision today, or B) the scum targeted Roosh, and redirected to NAF.
If there is no roleblocker claim forthcoming, Roosh is all but confirmed as town then. As he was seemingly targeted by the demons last night, and he can't be a horseman, as according to Blockey his power doesn't work on other horsemen.
I'll be back when I can today to place a vote.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 17:49:21 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 30, 2008 17:49:21 GMT -5
Storyteller was looking at votes placed in Day 1 with the knowledge of alignments we had in Day 5. Then he got killed.
Since we have learned the alignments of no less than four players since Story made that post, I thought I'd rework it as a basis for analysis.
I'll use the same conventions. Scum will be coloured in red, confirmed Town coloured in green, and those of unknown alignment in bold face. This is the final vote count from Day One:
hockeyguy8435 (10): stardragonman, Kat, ryjae, misterblockey, Roosh, bufftabby, Rebel, FlyingCowofDoom, Merestil Haye, tdpatriots12
UNCONFIRMED VOTERS FOR HOCKEYGUY: Kat, misterblockey, Roosh, Merestil Haye
Tragic (4): KidVermicious, hockeymonkey, Darth Sensitive, hockeyguy8435
UNCONFIRMED VOTERS FOR TRAGIC: None
bufftabby (2): Survivor Smurf, Tragic
misterblockey (2): NAF1138, Nanook
FlyingCowofDoom (2): Rysto, Blaster Master
tdpatriots12 (2): storyteller, hawkeyeop
Merestil Haye (1): Hal Briston
I'm not sure what this tells us. Some thoughts are forming; I'll work on them over the next day or so and report back.
I'm going to take a similar look at the other Days before discussing findings; they may help shake out the idea I'm wrestling with.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 17:52:01 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 30, 2008 17:52:01 GMT -5
NETA :
I appear to have omitted a closing color tag after Hal Briston's name. If a passing Modly type would be so kind as to add the missing close tag, they would earn my grateful thanks.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 17:54:38 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Jun 30, 2008 17:54:38 GMT -5
... You can all laugh now.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 18:53:18 GMT -5
Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 30, 2008 18:53:18 GMT -5
... You can all laugh now. ;D ;D ;D
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 18:57:33 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jun 30, 2008 18:57:33 GMT -5
*points and laughs at mhaye*
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 19:00:03 GMT -5
Post by Gir! on Jun 30, 2008 19:00:03 GMT -5
No scum kill occurred, and Nanook did not protect anyone, so either A) we have a so far unclaimed town roleblocker, in which case I think it is time to claim and tell us who you blocked last night - because that person is a demon, and makes for an easy lynch decision today, or B) the scum targeted Roosh, and redirected to NAF. You left off (C) the scum opted not to kill (or missed the Night action deadline), which would be insane of them, but it could happen.
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 19:10:31 GMT -5
Post by Greedy Smurf on Jun 30, 2008 19:10:31 GMT -5
No scum kill occurred, and Nanook did not protect anyone, so either A) we have a so far unclaimed town roleblocker, in which case I think it is time to claim and tell us who you blocked last night - because that person is a demon, and makes for an easy lynch decision today, or B) the scum targeted Roosh, and redirected to NAF. You left off (C) the scum opted not to kill (or missed the Night action deadline), which would be insane of them, but it could happen. True. But unless there was some pay off for not night killing which we have not been made privy to I can't see any reason for them to actively not use a night kill. An accidental miss of the deadline is possible though. We've seen worse blunders before. (Scum message posted in the main night thread anyone ;D )
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 19:23:53 GMT -5
Post by The Real FCOD on Jun 30, 2008 19:23:53 GMT -5
... You can all laugh now. *laughsFromBeyondTheGrave* HAHAHAHAHA!!!! --FCOD
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 21:43:48 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Jun 30, 2008 21:43:48 GMT -5
Ok, here's the raw data that I've collected. I have some preliminary thoughts that I'll put in a subsequent post, and some more in-depth analysis is coming, but I thought that this is the kind of thing that everybody needs to have. Day 1As of hereCzech (3): Roosh, KidVermicious, misterblockeystardragonman (2): Darth Sensitive, hockeyguy8435misterblockey (2): NAF1138, Nanookbufftabby (2): storyteller0910, tdpatriots12Hal Briston (1): FlyingCowOfDoomFlyingCowOfDoom (1): bufftabbyBlaster Master (1): Hawkeyeophockeyguy8435 (1): stardragonmanAs of Kat's caseCzech (3): Roosh, KidVermicious, misterblockeystardragonman (2): Darth Sensitive, hockeyguy8435misterblockey (2): NAF1138, Nanookbufftabby (4): storyteller0910, tdpatriots12, Survivor Smurf, Hal BristonHal Briston (1): FlyingCowOfDoomFlyingCowOfDoom (1): bufftabbyBlaster Master (1): Hawkeyeophockeyguy8435 (2): stardragonman, KatNot Voting(9): Ryjae, Czech, Tragic, Merestil Haye, Rebel, Kison, hockeymonkey, Blaster Master, RystoAs of bufftabby's claimCzech (2): Roosh, misterblockeystardragonman (2): Darth Sensitive, hockeyguy8435misterblockey (2): NAF1138, Nanookbufftabby (6): storyteller0910, tdpatriots12, Survivor Smurf, Hal Briston, KidVermicious, FCoDFlyingCowOfDoom (2): bufftabby, Rystohockeyguy8435 (3): stardragonman, Kat, HawkeyeopNot Voting(8): Ryjae, Czech, Tragic, Merestil Haye, Rebel, Kison, hockeymonkey, Blaster MasterAs of herehockeyguy8435 (8): stardragonman, Kat, Hawkeyeop, Ryjae, misterblockey, Roosh, bufftabby, Rebelbufftabby (5): tdpatriots12, Survivor Smurf, Hal Briston, FlyingCowOfDoom, Tragicmisterblockey (2): NAF1138, NanookTragic (2): KidVermicious, hockeymonkeystardragonman (1): Darth SensitiveFlyingCowOfDoom (1): RystoNot Voting(7): Czech, Merestil Haye, Kison, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, hockeyguy8435End of Day 1hockeyguy8435 (10): stardragonman, Kat, Ryjae, misterblockey, Roosh, bufftabby, Rebel, FlyingCowOfDoom, Merestil Haye, tdpatriots12Tragic (4): KidVermicious, hockeymonkey, Darth Sensitive, hockeyguy8435bufftabby (2): Survivor Smurf, Tragicmisterblockey (2): NAF1138, NanookFlyingCowOfDoom (2): Rysto, Blaster Mastertdpatriots12 (2): storyteller0910, HawkeyeopMerestil Haye (1): Hal BristonNot Voting (2): Czech, KisonDay 2As of herestardragonman (5): Penalty Votes Ryjae (3): Nanook, Survivor Smurf, RooshFlyingCowOfDoom (2): misterblockey, Rebeltdpatriots (1): FlyingCowOfDoomBlaster Master (1): hockeymonkeyHawkeyeop (1): NAF1138Nanook (1): RystoSurvivor Smurf (1): tdpatriotsNot Voting(13): Ryjae, stardragonman, Blaster Master, Czech, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Merestil Haye, molefan, Kison, bufftabby, Darth Sensitive, storyteller0910As of herestardragonman (5): Penalty Votes TDpatriots (4): FlyingCowOfDoom, Nanook, Hawkeyeop, storyteller0910FlyingCowOfDoom (3): misterblockey, Rebel, Darth Sensitivehockeymonkey (2): bufftabby, KisonRyjae (1): Survivor SmurfBlaster Master (1): hockeymonkeyHawkeyeop (1): NAF1138Nanook (1): RystoSurvivor Smurf (1): tdpatriotsRysto (1): RooshNot Voting(7): stardragonman, Ryjae, Blaster Master, Czech, Kat, molefan, Merestil HayeAs of heretdpatriots (6): FlyingCowOfDoom, Nanook, Hawkeyeop, storyteller0910, misterblockey, hockeymonkeystardragonman (6): Penalty Votes, RooshFlyingCowOfDoom (2): Rebel, Darth Sensitivehockeymonkey (2): bufftabby, KisonRyjae (1): Survivor SmurfHawkeyeop (1): NAF1138Nanook (1): RystoNot Voting(8): stardragonman, Ryjae, Blaster Master, Czech, Kat, molefan, Merestil Haye, tdpatsEnd of Day 2stardragonman (8): Penalty Votes, Roosh, tdpatriots, NAF1138tdpatriots (7): FlyingCowOfDoom, Nanook, Hawkeyeop, storyteller0910, misterblockey, hockeymonkey, Merestil HayeFlyingCowOfDoom (3): Rebel, Darth Sensitive, Blaster Masterhockeymonkey (2): bufftabby, KisonRyjae (1): Survivor SmurfNanook (1): RystoRoosh (1): KatNot Voting (4): Czech, molefan1981, Ryjae, stardragonmanDay 3As of heretdpatriots (2): Nanook, FlyingCowOfDoomhockeymonkey (2): bufftabby, NAF1138Nanook (1): RystoNAF1138 (1): KisonRysto (1): RooshFlyingCowOfDoom (1): misterblockeyNot Voting(11): Czech, Hawkeyeop, Kat, Merestil Haye, Survivor Smurf, tdpats, molefan, Darth Sensitive, hockeymonkey, storyteller0910As of herehockeymonkey (3): NAF1138, FlyingCowOfDoom, Darth SensitiveDarth Sensitive (3): hockeymonkey, bufftabby, molefan1981FlyingCowOfDoom (2): misterblockey, Merestil Hayetdpatriots (1): NanookNAF1138 (1): KisonRoosh (1): HawkeyeopCzech (1): Rystomisterblockey (1): tdpatriotsNo Vote (6): Blaster Master, Czech, Kat!, storyteller0910, Survivor Smurf, RooshAs of hereFlyingCowOfDoom (4): misterblockey, Merestil Haye, Roosh, Blaster Masterhockeymonkey (3): NAF1138, FlyingCowOfDoom, Darth SensitiveDarth Sensitive (2): hockeymonkey, bufftabbymisterblockey (2): tdpatriots, Rystotdpatriots (1): NanookNAF1138 (1): KisonRoosh (1): HawkeyeopNo Vote (5): Czech, Kat!, storyteller0910, Survivor Smurf, molefanEnd of Day 3FlyingCowOfDoom (5): misterblockey, Merestil Haye, Roosh, Blaster Master, hockeymonkeyhockeymonkey (2): NAF1138, Darth Sensitivemisterblockey (2): tdpatriots, RystoCzech (2): Kat, HawkeyeopDarth Sensitive (1): bufftabbytdpatriots (1): NanookNAF1138 (1): KisonRoosh (1): Survivor SmurfNot Voting (4): Czech, FlyingCowOfDoom, molefan1981, storyteller0910Day 4As of hereBlaster Master (4): Roosh, Kison, Hawkeyeop, pedescribemisterblockey (2): NAF1138, Rystohockeymonkey (1): bufftabbyNot Voting(9): Survivor Smurf, Merestil Haye, Blaster Master, storyteller0910, Kat, misterblockey, Nanook, Darth Sensitive, hockeymonkeyAs of hereBlaster Master (3): Roosh, Hawkeyeop, pedescribemisterblockey (3): NAF1138, Rysto, Merestil HayeDarth Sensitive (2): hockeymonkey, KisonKison (1): Nanookhockeymonkey (1): bufftabbystoryteller0910 (1): Darth SensitiveNot Voting(5): Blaster Master, storyteller0910, Kat, misterblockey, Survivor SmurfEnd of Day 4Kison (7): Nanook, misterblockey, Blaster Master, Merestil Haye, storyteller0910, Kat, Survivor SmurfBlaster Master (3): Roosh, Hawkeyeop, pedescribemisterblockey (2): NAF1138, RystoDarth Sensitive (2): hockeymonkey, Kisonhockeymonkey (1): bufftabbystoryteller0910 (1): Darth SensitiveDay 5As of hereBlaster Master (1): Rystostoryteller0910 (1): hockeymonkeyhockeymonkey (1): NAF1138No Lynch (1): Survivor SmurfNot Voting(9): Blaster Master, Hawkeyeop, pedescribe, Kat, Merestil Haye, misterblockey, Nanook, storyteller0910, RooshAs of story's deathBlaster Master (1): Rystohockeymonkey (3): NAF1138, misterblockey, Nanook, storyteller0910misterblockey(1): hockeymonkeyNot Voting(7): Blaster Master, Hawkeyeop, pedescribe, Kat, Merestil Haye, Roosh, Survivor SmurfAs of hereBlaster Master (6): Rysto, Nanook, Roosh, Survivor Smurf, Kat, misterblockeymisterblockey (1): NAF1138NAF1138 (1): HawkeyeopNot Voting(3): Blaster Master, pedescribe, Merestil HayeEnd of Day 5Blaster Master (5): Rysto, Nanook, Roosh, Survivor Smurf, KatNAF1138 (3): Hawkeyeop, Merestil Haye, misterblockeymisterblockey (2): NAF1138, Blaster MasterNot Voting (1): pedescribe
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Day Six
Jun 30, 2008 22:19:10 GMT -5
Post by Rysto on Jun 30, 2008 22:19:10 GMT -5
So what jumped out at me while collecting all that? First, Smurf is the only unknown on the bufftabby bandwagon; everyone else is confirmed Town. If you'd asked me before I looked at the data I would have been 100% certain that there was a Demon on that wagon. In light of the data above I'm no longer certain about it, but it's a small mark against Smurf. It's not as big of a mark as it would have been had he voted after Kat presented her case.
Second, Smurf has been lurking like a motherfuck. It's not just his voting history I'm talking about -- he's been totally under the radar the whole game, and that makes me suspicious. sachertorte is constantly making the point that "lynching lurkers" isn't what the Town needs to do -- it's lynching clean-nosers.
Third, there's a stunning lack of overlap between the votes of our known demons, and Smurf, MHaye and Czech/pedescribe. I think that the Demons are making a concerted effort to ensure that they don't vote as a bloc. There's a very strong pattern there -- it does not look natural. It very much looks intentional. Meanwhile, Nanook has voted the same way as all of these people at various times(save hockeyguy) and Roosh has a similar voting pattern. Kat isn't necessarily excluded by this, though. I need to look at everything more in-depth.
More analysis will come, either tomorrow Night or the Night after. I will be traveling tomorrow so we'll see how things go.
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Jul 1, 2008 0:13:04 GMT -5
Thanks for that vote information Rysto.
Vote Pedescribe
It was only with that information that I see Czech/Pedescribe has voted exactly once in 5 days. That's just not going to cut it.
Looking back pedescribe didn't post at all day 5, having last logged on the 26th of June. I don't know if there is a real life problem, and apologies if there is.
My vote isn't locked in. But I'm happy with where it is for the moment.
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Post by RoOsh on Jul 1, 2008 2:21:12 GMT -5
No scum kill occurred, and Nanook did not protect anyone, so either A) we have a so far unclaimed town roleblocker, in which case I think it is time to claim and tell us who you blocked last night - because that person is a demon, and makes for an easy lynch decision today, or B) the scum targeted Roosh, and redirected to NAF. You left off (C) the scum opted not to kill (or missed the Night action deadline), which would be insane of them, but it could happen. There's also the possibility of D) The scum chose to use some crazy other ability instead of killing or something like that. I do have one thought at this point.... is it late enough to consider the idea of Mass Claiming or is that still a tabled issue? (as I know you're not a fan of it, Mr. Blockey) But at some point, especially with our possible Vig running around NK people, it might be beneficial to consider this as an option of having everyone put a claim of SOME sort onto the table (yes, I realize the irony of this idea being put out by myself, but still...) It's something worth mentioning- your thoughts, people?
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Post by Greedy Smurf on Jul 1, 2008 7:05:45 GMT -5
I'd be fine with a mass claim.
At this point in the game I don't believe we'd be doing much harm to mass claim. We already have our Doc, Vig, and remaining mason in the open - how much worse could it get really?
I believe it could help with outing the remaining horseman as well.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 1, 2008 8:12:05 GMT -5
I'd be fine with a mass claim. At this point in the game I don't believe we'd be doing much harm to mass claim. We already have our Doc, Vig, and remaining mason in the open - how much worse could it get really? I believe it could help with outing the remaining horseman as well. Did Nanook claim doctor? I thought that wasn't quite what he claimed. Would someone mind going over what has been claimed thus far? I favor a full claim at this point, though if we have a full doctor left, I suggest they find a way to not give themselves away.
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Post by Nanook on Jul 1, 2008 8:19:26 GMT -5
I claimed Angel, which is sort of a doc, but kinda not at the same time. I would be slightly surprised, but not completely so, if there was another full doc running around.
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Post by Hawkmod on Jul 1, 2008 8:52:32 GMT -5
I claimed Angel, which is sort of a doc, but kinda not at the same time. I would be slightly surprised, but not completely so, if there was another full doc running around. Did you claim anything specific on how your powers worked? Claims Nanook: Doctorish Rysto: Vigish Roosh: Amnesiac/? Hawkeyeop: Mason Misterblockey: Horseman of War No Claims Survivor Smurf Kat Pedescribe Merestil Haye Did I miss anything?
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Post by Mister Blockey on Jul 1, 2008 9:33:01 GMT -5
Day 6, 10 people left, this is definitely an ok time to mass claim.
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