|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:36:48 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Dec 4, 2008 11:36:48 GMT -5
bufftabby - 8 votes (storyteller, NAF, pedescribe, nanook, Almost Human, Hoopy Frood, Kat, zeriel) DBI - 8 votes (Flyingblankofdoom, Chucara, sinjin, Cookies, shaggy, peekercpa, Total Lost, KidV) mmouse - 2 votes (misterblockey, bufftabby) Chucara - 2 votes (Santo Rugger, miteymouse) Peekercpa - 1 vote (DBI)
|
|
Chucara
Borogrove
Idleboard's Elite Coder Club
2009 Winner of Best Person in the Universe
Posts: 287
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:42:38 GMT -5
Post by Chucara on Dec 4, 2008 11:42:38 GMT -5
What happens in the event of a tie?
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:51:27 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 11:51:27 GMT -5
OK. It's a waste of energy to try to assess the likelihood of bufftabby's role in terms of trying to guess whether she's lying. We've had implausible roles before, and we'll have them again, but we've also had Roosh's Amnesiac Milkman. She might be lying about her role and she might be telling the truth, but analysis of its likelihood oughtn't affect our opinion of her scumminess (or lack thereof).
What we can do is consider what she's told us in terms of risk-reward. Let's look at the role as buff has described it:
In order to do anything at all she must survive, in the absolute best case, until Night Three. 25 players are in the game, so she'd have about an 8% chance of getting Berries Night One, then in the vicinity of a 5% chance of getting the remaining Berries Night Two. So her best case scenario is to have a less than 1% chance of a single kill on Night Three, if she lives that long.
Much more likely, she'd have to survive more Days after that. But it gets worse. If either of the players holding berries dies, via lynch or Night kill, before she can collect from them, she is immediately and permanently rendered useless.
I'm too much of an English major to do the calculations, but it would seem to me that the probability of a player with the role bufftabby has described ever actually getting a kill is something less than 5%. In other words, for all intents and purposes, she's vanilla.
So, in terms of risk-benefit analysis, the negative accured if she's telling the truth (we lose a vanilla, basically) does not outweigh the fact that I still - with due respect to those who disagree with me - consider her actions the scummiest I've seen all Day.
Vote stands.
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:53:05 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 4, 2008 11:53:05 GMT -5
Man, the way these votes are falling at the eleventh hour is quite telling, IMHO. Vote DBI DBI didn't put a lot of efford into this game. Also made it sound like that was not just on Day1 - but that RL would make the low participation last for the rest of the game. This is patently false, from the post I just quoted: I will be kind of flakey probably until at least Finals are over - passing classes is a little bit more important than playing mafia, sorry. Finals are over in less than two weeks. Don't Europeans have a break for Christmas and New Year's, too? Methinks you're trying to protect your scum buddy. So who to vote for? Mmouse is probably a bad lynch at this point. DBI is the other option, and a poor option at that, considering the potential for subness. Setting up an apology for later? This contracts with your last sentence. If Idle's going to sub her, or she lives another Day, her finals will be over.[/quote] Why are you laughing, because you know you're pushing a townie to their death?
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:53:18 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 11:53:18 GMT -5
Four non-voters. Come on, people, this is no time to be Switzerland.
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:54:44 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 4, 2008 11:54:44 GMT -5
Whoops, forgot to
Vote bufftabby
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:55:10 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 11:55:10 GMT -5
You're going to need to unvote chucara if you want that to stand.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:57:46 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Dec 4, 2008 11:57:46 GMT -5
What happens in the event of a tie? The votes are erased and Dusk starts. It last 24 hours and people all vote again using ONLY the people in the tie.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:58:36 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Dec 4, 2008 11:58:36 GMT -5
About one hour left...
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 11:59:42 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 11:59:42 GMT -5
Hmm. Given that, I'm not entirely sure that a tie would be an adverse outcome. It would allow those who haven't voted or expressed an opinion on the subject of dot vs. buff, and who aren't able to show up in the next hour, to digest the events of the last four hours and make an informed decision.
Thoughts?
|
|
Merestil Haye
FGM
Grudge Keeper
[on:Slumming it in the Middle-Earth][of:In the halls of Manw
Posts: 1,077
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:01:54 GMT -5
Post by Merestil Haye on Dec 4, 2008 12:01:54 GMT -5
Man, the way these votes are falling at the eleventh hour is quite telling, IMHO. Vote DBI DBI didn't put a lot of efford into this game. Also made it sound like that was not just on Day1 - but that RL would make the low participation last for the rest of the game.This is patently false, from the post I just quoted: Finals are over in less than two weeks. Don't Europeans have a break for Christmas and New Year's, too? Yes, but we don't have finals then. The end of the academic year is in the summer. Final exams are sat in May and June. Not December. (Post valid in the UK only. Denmark may be different. Nevertheless, the point stands. You are projecting the US custom on other nations.)
|
|
Trepa Mayfield
FGM
Does Not Follow Directions
The only kind of panda worth preserving.
Posts: 989
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:04:29 GMT -5
Post by Trepa Mayfield on Dec 4, 2008 12:04:29 GMT -5
Hmm. Given that, I'm not entirely sure that a tie would be an adverse outcome. It would allow those who haven't voted or expressed an opinion on the subject of dot vs. buff, and who aren't able to show up in the next hour, to digest the events of the last four hours and make an informed decision. Thoughts? This Day has gone on long enough! The tension is killing me, and while I can see how it would be useful, I don't want someone "accidentally" lynching DBI while trying to make a tie game.
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:04:40 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 4, 2008 12:04:40 GMT -5
Unvote chuchmaster Vote bufftabby
The main thing I don't like about a tie is that it's too easy for scum to manipulate. It'd be pretty obvious if they tried to swing things at this point, but I don't like the option being available.
The case against DBI boils down to:
1. She lurked because she's hammered at school. 2. She admitted it. 3. Profit!!!
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:05:31 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Dec 4, 2008 12:05:31 GMT -5
Whoa, wait a second. I thought you said the Day ended at 11am pac time? Is my clock an hour slow?
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:06:02 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 4, 2008 12:06:02 GMT -5
Man, the way these votes are falling at the eleventh hour is quite telling, IMHO. This is patently false, from the post I just quoted: Finals are over in less than two weeks. Don't Europeans have a break for Christmas and New Year's, too? Yes, but we don't have finals then. The end of the academic year is in the summer. Final exams are sat in May and June. Not December. (Post valid in the UK only. Denmark may be different. Nevertheless, the point stands. You are projecting the US custom on other nations.) Man, you guys only have finals once per year? I had finals three times a year as an undergrad (quarter system but never went to summer session) and three times a year as a grad student (one class per semester plus summer session).
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:06:12 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 12:06:12 GMT -5
[oog] I don't know why, but that "Proft!" thing makes me laugh out loud every time I see it, no matter the context [/oog].
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:05:49 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 4, 2008 12:05:49 GMT -5
Whoa, wait a second. I thought you said the Day ended at 11am pac time? Is my clock an hour slow? Maybe he means mountain. Because it's a bit after 11 Central time here.
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:06:59 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 4, 2008 12:06:59 GMT -5
Yes, but we don't have finals then. The end of the academic year is in the summer. Final exams are sat in May and June. Not December. (Post valid in the UK only. Denmark may be different. Nevertheless, the point stands. You are projecting the US custom on other nations.) She started it! I retract that point against Total Hottie. As an aside, how does that work? Does a single class last the entire year? Ours are mostly broken up into fall and spring (16 weeks each), plus a summer session (8 weeks)
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:10:49 GMT -5
Post by Høøpy Frøød on Dec 4, 2008 12:10:49 GMT -5
... I forgot to say. If you follow the above procedure,where the system refers to player names it uses the account name and not the display name. So I will be "MHaye", DBI "dotchan" and Shaggy "Sauron" in such files. There may be others who have changed display name too. I replaced the o's in my name with ø's a while back but I don't think that's going to confuse anyone.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:14:28 GMT -5
Post by ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies on Dec 4, 2008 12:14:28 GMT -5
Underneath this nickname...I'm not wearing any Cookies!
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:17:48 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 12:17:48 GMT -5
This is actually quite nerve-wracking.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:21:15 GMT -5
Post by sinjin on Dec 4, 2008 12:21:15 GMT -5
I would like to note before the end of the day that squido has gone MIA again. He has still not posted a single "content post" in the entire game. I'm beginning to wonder if there's a group out there with a special lurker win condition: Whoever has the highest days alive to post ratio gets a gold sticker in their permanent mafia record or something.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:23:18 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 12:23:18 GMT -5
I would like to note before the end of the day that squido has gone MIA again. He has still not posted a single "content post" in the entire game. I think we will learn something about these players come Dawn toMorrow, when they are either subbed out, or not.
|
|
Santo Rugger
Mome Rath
The Obviously Innocent Townie
The Rugger formerly known as Pygmy[on:BYAHH!][of:BYAHH?]
Posts: 3
[ Exalt | Smite ]
Karma:
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:23:58 GMT -5
Post by Santo Rugger on Dec 4, 2008 12:23:58 GMT -5
This is actually quite nerve-wracking. You know the funny part? Half the reason I play this damn game is the anticipation of the reveal at the end of the days lynch. And I fucking hate it.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:25:38 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 12:25:38 GMT -5
This is actually quite nerve-wracking. You know the funny part? Half the reason I play this damn game is the anticipation of the reveal at the end of the days lynch. And I fucking hate it. That's why moderating kicks so much ass. You get all the anticipation of the reveal and its fallout, but you actually know what's going to happen so you don't feel like you picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:27:27 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Dec 4, 2008 12:27:27 GMT -5
bufftabby - 9 votes (storyteller, NAF, pedescribe, nanook, Almost Human, Hoopy Frood, Kat, zeriel, Santo Claus) DBI - 8 votes (Flyingblankofdoom, Chucara, sinjin, Cookies, shaggy, peekercpa, Total Lost, KidV) mmouse - 2 votes (misterblockey, bufftabby) Chucara - 1 vote (miteymouse) Peekercpa - 1 vote (DBI)
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:29:25 GMT -5
Post by KidVermicious on Dec 4, 2008 12:29:25 GMT -5
Unvote chuchmaster Vote bufftabbyThe main thing I don't like about a tie is that it's too easy for scum to manipulate. It'd be pretty obvious if they tried to swing things at this point, but I don't like the option being available. The case against DBI boils down to: 1. She lurked because she's hammered at school. 2. She admitted it. 3. Profit!!! Sigh. You're right, I guess. It doesn't sit right with me, but we're correct to trust players when they claim IRL trouble. Gawdammit. Unvote Death By Irony[/color] Vote Bufftabby[/color] Please be scum.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:29:40 GMT -5
Post by Idle Thoughts on Dec 4, 2008 12:29:40 GMT -5
When I started this game, I'm pretty sure it still was 11 PST...but now it's 11 MT.
Arizona doesn't do DST....and I have no idea when that is (or when it had occured).
So I guess we're on MT now? Okay, then all times will be MT from now on.
Half of the year we're on MT and half of the year we're on PST.
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:31:14 GMT -5
Post by storyteller0910 on Dec 4, 2008 12:31:14 GMT -5
Incidentally, toMorrow, it might be an interesting subject for study: why did DBI and mmouse absorb such enthusiastic lurker votes, while Boozahol did not?
(Please note: "Interesting subject for study" means interesting subject for study. No mountains were created, and no molehills were harmed, in the creation of this post).
|
|
|
Day One
Dec 4, 2008 12:31:24 GMT -5
Post by NAF1138 on Dec 4, 2008 12:31:24 GMT -5
You know the funny part? Half the reason I play this damn game is the anticipation of the reveal at the end of the days lynch. And I fucking hate it. That's why moderating kicks so much ass. You get all the anticipation of the reveal and its fallout, but you actually know what's going to happen so you don't feel like you picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue. Word. Hey Idle...wanna comment on the time thing? By my clock we should still have 90 minutes, but you seem to be running the game with a clock that is an hour fast. I am ok with it, but I want to know if that's going to be the case in the future too.
|
|